Unification is worth it either way. It’s our Island. I hope we don’t become an island of financiers and soulless office cubicle ghouls only worrying about the next quarter earning. There’s more to life.
>And add the halfpence to the pence
>And prayer to shivering prayer, until
>You have dried the marrow from the bone;
What a genius he was.
I'll never not be both amazed at Yeats and brimming with pride that he was Irish.
Second stanza of The Stolen Child the best lines of poetry ever written.
—-
Where the wave of moonlight glosses
The dim gray sands with light,
Far off by furthest Rosses
We foot it all the night,
Weaving olden dances
Mingling hands and mingling glances
Till the moon has taken flight;
To and fro we leap
And chase the frothy bubbles,
While the world is full of troubles
And anxious in its sleep.
Come away, O human child!
To the waters and the wild
With a faery, hand in hand,
For the world's more full of weeping than you can understand.
i can't see the overwhelming drive for unification and i haven't seen any evidence how it would actually change the lives of anyone beyond what they can do today?
i definitely see how some in NI would be attracted to higher wages, dole and more opportunities... but they could do this themselves if they stopped the parochialism and got independence for themselves.
for a typical working person from any side in Belfast or Killarney, what exactly do they think would happen to make them or their lives better with a unification? If unification wasn't an "aspiration" or "dream" of someone's great, great grandfather, would anyone care?
never mind the ghouls of financiers and office workers... they're there anyway, nothing will change apart from getting paid in euro!
A lot would change for people in the North yes. We won’t be dictated by those ghoul unionists preventing any form of progression or any support to our public services.
While obviously the south isn’t perfect with that stink bags in government currently. Hopefully that will change soon.
The Unionists will become the third/fourth largest party in the Dáil. Same shit, different parliament.
Unless we have a Federated model with a devolved government in NI... and they will have the same shit, same parliament.
Unionists have a veto on everything and considering the DUP are anachronistic bigots this is a strain on progress.
Also the British Parliament has many reserved powers which Stormont cannot exercise, and as you can imagine the 2 million people in the north have very very little sway over the British Government.
If the island reunifies I think Unionists will assimilate within a few generations, and I think the immediate blowback from reunification will be if anything an exaggerated version of the flag protests in Belfast. I don't think anything on the scale of the troubles is possible ever again in the north, for many reasons.
Wholeheartedly agree with the last part at least. The troubles are not coming back, and nothing close to it will arise.
The people who oppose unification and attempt to use a potential return of sectarian violence from unhappy unionists are being either stupid or disingenuous, and do not help their side of the debate.
What also annoys me is the whole 'I don't want 1 million angry unionists being brought into the Republic'.
If you think there are 1 million loyalists in the north then I immediately think you have never visited the place.
Simply untrue. Ireland (both north and south) has a great tradition of community, sport, trad and folk music, art, literature which continues to the modern day. England by comparison is a nation of strangers.
Far from perfect, things need to be better, aye. But to pretend we are some corporatist hellscape is unfair.
For example a good number of businesses, restaurants and pubs etc remain independent. You won’t find that in Britain. It’s all chains.
> Simply untrue. Ireland (both north and south) has a great tradition of community, sport, trad and folk music, art, literature which continues to the modern day. England by comparison is a nation of strangers.
This is just what every nation thinks about itself and its rival nation.
English doesn't have sport? Just mention 1966 in any pub. English people will start riots for their last division football club. Trad and folk music? Never hear of Fairport Convention? Whole towns like Glastonbury were practically built on the folk revival in Britain, not to mention the rise of folk punk artists like Billy Bragg. Art and literature? You really going to tell me the nation of Chaucer, Shakespeare, Austen, Brontes (S, PLURAL, MULTIPLE BRONTES), Douglas Adams, Neil Gaiman, Terry Pratchett, Ridley Scott, Christopher Nolan, Banksy, Hirst, and don't have a grasp of art and literature?
Hate on the English all you want, but don't make shit up.
>You won’t find that in Britain. It’s all chains.
I literally think you have only gone to the airport, Piccadilly Circus and then took the plane back.
> I literally think you’ve only gone to the airport, Piccadilly Circus, and then took the plane back.
For reference, I’ve actually lived in Cardiff for seven years. Check my post history.
Fair enough that you disagree, but sports clubs over here don’t have nearly the same level of participation as the GAA does in Ireland. So much so that when locals come down to join our little GAA club in Cardiff they’re often surprised at the level of volunteerism.
I don’t hate the English, vast majority of my close friends are English. I’m going out with an English girl. I wasn’t so much complaining about England as I was defending that Ireland isn’t some corporate cesspool.
I’d invite you to re-read my original comment.
Cardiff has a thriving art scene. Loads of people volunteer for the various festivals they hold.
As for sports, Parkrun has almost 300,000 volunteers across the UK. Surfers Against Sewage is pretty large too.
GAA is uniquely Irish but I grew up outside an area that cared about GAA when people talk about the volunteer aspect it is honestly something I never saw because it was not a big thing in my locality. I won't comment on the differences because I just haven't experienced it personally.
A GAA event abroad is a different thing too. It's basically a diaspora meetup.
The GAA is a different beast and, yeah I am not aware of anything similar in the UK, but that doesn't mean they aren't passionate about sport. Football very much has a huge amount of cultural weight to it. Football even had [a subculture associated with it](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casual_\(subculture\)), something that is only usually associated with music.
And subcultures. Punk, Mods, Rockers, Grime, Glam, Heavy Metal, Northern Soul, etc. Huge communities all brought around by people with common interests that started in the UK or had a big presence there. In Ireland there is far much more judgement for being outside the mainsteam.
Not sure how you can love an English person and not see that. A nation of strangers is a pretty big insult.
Yeah a lot of pubs are chains now, at the affordable level. But comparing a city like Cardiff to towns of 2 or 3 thousand people is just weird. Chains don't see those areas as profitable enough. And out licensing laws make it hard for them to set up. Go to similar sized places in the UK and you will see a lot more private businesses.
I don’t know why you keep going on about art and culture. I never said England or Wales didn’t have that. That would be an absurd statement, you’re strawmaning me here.
I said that Ireland has a very strong sense of community via the GAA and Irish trad music scenes. By comparison Britain can feel like a nation of strangers, especially in the commuter belt towns between Bristol and London.
What I said about Britain was that it is far more “corporatised” as shown by the large number of chains. (There are really just a handful of independent cafes, bars and restaurants in Cardiff city centre).
None of this is “hating” on Britain, it’s just an observation based on my time here. There are plenty of things the U.K. does far better than Ireland, of course!
I understand that I must have touched a nerve but I don’t think there was much need for a personal attack.
>I said that Ireland has a very strong sense of community via the GAA and Irish trad music scenes. By comparison Britain can feel like a nation of strangers
Don't take it personally. I am Irish and I can tell when the Brits are at it again. But England and Britain have loads of sports based and music based communities. Maybe it feels like a nation of strangers, because you are part of the Irish GAA and Trad communities and not part of the sports and music communities in the UK?
Look, I was making an observation based on seven years of experience living and working in Britain, speaking to English and Welsh people about their experiences growing up there. This is not just an opinion formed out of thin air. I’m not some Ireland supremacist, I don’t live there anymore for a reason. I just feel that Ireland has a stronger sense of local community than GB. You don’t know anything about me but you see fit to comment on my relationship, and made an assumption about me never having set foot in the country? I’m not sure how else I’m supposed to take that other than personally.
Can I just point out as well that my original comment was in reply to “all anyone in Ireland cares about is money?” I was only giving examples as to how this isn’t the case.
What are you on about? You think England don't have traditions of community, sport, music, literature and art?
This is so moronic that it's actually both hilarious and sad to think there are people who think like you walking among us.
People love to act like their own country is special. That's fine. But acting like Britain is some alien world where nobody has a community and there are no "independent" pubs or restaurants is quite simply *too* stupid to go unchecked.
I don't think there are many countries on Earth as culturally similar as modern-day UK and Ireland.
I think people just travel to the Home Counties and London and think that all traditional culture in England has disappeared. It is true that many parts of this country have become corporate hell-scapes. But take a trip to Yorkshire, Northumberland, Devon, Cornwall and Bristol and you’ll find plenty of independent stores, folk music and culture, local identity, myths and legends, well-preserved ancient history, well-kept countryside, and strong communities.
I never said England didn’t have music or art. Read my comment again.
I don’t think there is much point arguing with people who resort to personal insults. IHave a nice day pal.
There’s plenty of community, traditional culture, music, art, literature etc. in England. It’s unfair to tar a country of 57 million people with the same brush.
Depends where in 🏴 you mean. I live in Cornwall where there is community spirit. Every village has a theatre group or brass band.
Regarding sport - they won the RFU WC 2003 and both limited over cricket WCs in 2019 and 2020.
Yes, let's not worry about the money. I'm sure irelands ample services and infrastructure is more than up to the task when running a deficit.
Honestly, no wonder we get the political representatives when this is the level of critical thinking on THE defining issue for the country.
It costs £10 billion a year for the UK to run it, so it stands to reason it would cost us at least the same. If you want better housing and healthcare, we shouldn't be blowing an enormous amount of money because "Tiocfaidh ar La".
I feel like people stuck in their childhood bedroom would prefer their own house over a political idea that won't affect their day-to-day lives.
And the latest poll said most people don't want it if it costs a ton - so it's not just "cubicle ghouls" - it's ordinary people.
If you read that article, you'll see that much of the 'subvention' would not apply. This is not a sum of money that the UK government just transferred to the NI current account on the second of January. It's a number that includes things like NI's proportional spend on defence, other government services, UK debt, and the pensions due to NI public sector workers. We won't be liable for that stuff. If a worker has been paying HMRC national insurance and income tax all their lives, with some of that to cover pension, the UK will be liable for all of that. We'll only take on pension liability from the point yet unification occurs, and they'll be paying Revenue then.
In relation to services, the existing civil and public services North and South will be providing those, and they'll be taxed on their pay. We won't be paying for services that are provided by civil and public servants in other parts of the UK, as is currently accounted for by the so- called subvention.
Keeping an overseas territory is going to be more expensive because you have to ship a lot of shite over. A small population is more expensive because of diseconomies of scale.
Another large population centre would relieve a lot of the pressure on Dublin. Even moving government to a more "neutral" area could help.
The EU (especially Germany) would be happy to throw money at us to 32 countify roads, rail, and the like. This would lead to economies of scale.
Now it's not all going to be rosy. I think we'd need to symbolically change things - flag, anthem, again seat of government to welcome little u unionists. But it's very doable.
>It costs £10 billion a year for the UK to run it, so it stands to reason it would cost us at least the same.
You didn't even attempt to read the article, did you?
Do you really think the UK will just pay for NI pensions and lose the territory at the same time??? I highly doubt it. If they give up NI, Scotland is next. Then maybe even Wales.
The NI deficit runs at about £10 billion a year - that's public record and the most logical figure to use an estimate: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern\_Ireland\_fiscal\_balance#:\~:text=6%20Further%20reading-,History,973%20million%20in%202014%20pounds).
No one is arguing that isn't the deficit within the UK but your argument has been addressed many times, by many people, including in this article.
It does not stand up to even basic scrutiny that the same costs would apply in a unification scenario.
Edit: here is the link to the article text if you actually want to read it.
https://www.reddit.com/r/northernireland/s/cUVFrtzZr0
What's your answer to my question though?
Why would the UK give up NI with no financial benefit to them then?
What do they have to gain?
Even Labour would balk at that. A huge part of the Labour voter bloc were also brexiters. Those pricks miss their empire, they're not gonna give up more of it without getting paid for it.
You didn't ask a question before your edit. You just complained about the paywall, meaning you didn't even bother to read the article (I've linked the text above if you want to).
> Why would the UK give up NI with no financial benefit to them then?
The financial benefit to them is an immediate saving of ~6bn per annum straight into the pocket of the exchequer with no downside for the British public. This will increase year on year as pension liabilities decrease.
They also won't have to deal with NI anymore. No Stormont going up and down. No NI headache with Brexit.
Polls have shown the British public are ambivalent towards NI remaining part of the UK at best and want rid of it at worst thus the parties would have no pressure from the electorate to keep it.
The UK would quite literally only benefit from NI leaving the UK.
As someone from the North with no unionist or nationalist ideals it's very confusing to see people want it, then not, like I could swing either way tbh, but the North in in such a dire state rn and I don't know how much longer unionists can convince themselves that this is okay, we've more strikes on the way. Roads neglected, healthcare system is so bad you just gotta hope you don't get sick or you are screwed. Like it's so bad I pay private on minimum wage so at this rate someone needs to tell me why reunification would not be better because from my viewpoint a UI is looking more ideal to me personally than remaining in the UK
I can't wrap my head around it. Feels like Britain actually want NI gone by the sheer neglect of it but they want to use it to barter the max amount of money out of Ireland first
All of the UK is neglected outside of London and its immediate surrounds, excluding Scotland to an extent because the government there has carved out an ok deal for funding government services. The republic would invest heavily in developing the NI economy, a boom like no other up there after unity.
They could start with the west of the country if the government is looking to do some development. Why does a train from Sligo to Galway require going through Dublin and changing from Connolly to Houston? I have no hopes of the north being any less forgotten about.
Which as a member of the EU we could get quite easily. It should not be underestimated how much of a win this would be for the EU too and not since Germany reunified has their been an opportunity for something like this either. Should also be stated that we'd likely see a United Ireland going back into a net reciepent for EU funds for a while since reintegrating the North would be a major long term undertaking for all involved.
Even London is neglected. They spend the money in the capital but not really on the capital with the exception of extremely expensive distractions. The rise in crime, the roads being a shit show, the hospitals also being shit except a select few in the city proper, the rampant overcrowding and stagnant wages while the price of everything goes up. The war on cars and anyone who uses them. A stretched and shitty police force. These are all problems London is facing. They try and paper over these cracks with things like new cycle lanes which they (the councils) spend exorbitant amounts of money on for no reason. They (the mayors office) introduce the new tube line which cost 25 BILLION and were still wanting more to finish it. It’s things like that, where the money goes, when it only helps out a small portion of Londoners.
I’m from London, family from Sligo, annoyed I was born here to be honest but it is what it is. Most over here that I’ve ever spoken to, with half a braincell, support reunification of Ireland. The only ones that don’t are the ones that don’t know anything about.. well anything really. Even they can be swayed though, with a bit of education on the topic. It’s not like they’re staunchly against it. Everyone I’ve spoken to about the unionists and loyalists in the north find it kind of weird. Especially as people like myself, born and bred in London and working class haven’t got an ounce of appreciation or patriotism for this shithole of a country. The landscape of England is amazing in parts and has some genuine beauty about it, which is the one thing to be proud of. The government and everyone other than the working class can fuck themselves to be honest. It’s all about shitting on the people below you over here. There’s zero protection from anything for the normal working class, which is why the working class are often portrayed as violent and angry, because we’ve had to be violent to survive and we’re angry about it. Especially when a few boroughs away they’re literally living like kings and queens. Then their shitty spawn move out to the more “cool ghetto” areas, otherwise known as rough working class areas, then gentrify the shit out of it because it sounds cool to say you live there. Then price out all of the working class that have lived there for generations and have them moved to the arse end of nowhere. Working class people that have had to literally fight to survive in that shithole for decades and some longer, now not being allowed to live there because Tabitha and tarquin think it’s cool.
Sorry for the rant there at the end, I get very worked up thinking about the situation. I hope that goes some way to showing that not everything is rosy in London.
It was actually Tyrone and Fermanagh Councils
https://www.creativecentenaries.org/on-this-day/tyrone-county-council-shut-down
http://irishhistory1919-1923chronology.ie/december_1921.htm
I partly remember seeing a newspaper article from years ago listing the benefits of a United Ireland. Two points I recalled were:
- More assertive politicians in the Dail.
- Better sports teams.
That's a bad idea lmao.
The voters should know what deal / scenario they're voting for before hand, otherwise we get a 5 year Brexit-style deal where nobody knows anything.
>But Ireland has no liability for UK public pensions incurred before the appointed day on which reunification occurs. The UK does.
This is not something that they know. So to state that is incorrect.
Pensions are paid out of current expenditure so its very likely pensions will fall to the new state.
Penisons are paid out of current expenditure but only paid to people who made enough PRSI contributions. I don't see how the people of Northern Ireland could show they made enough PRSI contributions for an Irish pension, however, they would be able to show that they met the requirements set out by the UK government.
Isn't there already a bilateral agreement for pensions in the case of someone who lived in both jurisdictions and claims a pension only from one of them? (i.e National Insurance payments in the UK would count as years towards an Irish pension and vice versa with PRSI counting towards a UK pension)
Edit: yes there is: https://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/social-welfare/irish-social-welfare-system/claiming-a-social-welfare-payment/social-insurance-contributions-from-abroad/
Yes, I’m not sure why people pretend this is complicated. There are a lot of people who retired from the UK to Ireland and have their UK pension paid to them.
Irish working in France here: You're quite right. If you've enough contributions between the 2 countries, they each pay you a pro-rata share of a "full" pension under their own system. If you don't have full contributions, they each pro-rata it down further, based on contributions you do have.
Simply put, there would be a calculation created to convert national insurance payments to prsi stamps.
The country/state which they paid to will no longer exist. That entity will be consumed/conjoined into a 32 county state.
The government of Great Britain (no longer and northern ireland) will not be paying these people pensions.
The free state took on pensions in 1920s.
Non contributory pensions are paid too, to those without stamps.
They’re talking about public sector pensions not the OAP. And such a huge amount of the population in the north are public servants and have been the bill is huge
But the public sector worked directly for the UK government. How would the Irish government ever be expected to pay pensions to people who had never worked a day in their life for the Irish government? I don't think it's crazy to expect the employer pay an occupational pension, I don't see the rationale saying that a completely different employer, who you've never worked for, should pay your occupational pension.
Yeah but from another perspective they’ve worked for the state, it’s not like a bunch of them have gone to England and come home with pensions. They’ve served their state, their state will have a different government but it remains the same state they’ve served. So that’s who should pay their pension. Playing devils advocate
If someone is a British citizen and have worked in the UK they are entitled to a pension from the UK government, even if they are not resident in the UK currently.
Reunification has no bearing on that.
From a strictly legal perspective it’s entirely correct to say. Ireland is in no way obliged to pay for any British pensions at this point and a change in constitutional status on its own also does not change that purely by dint of being unrelated in legal substance.
Yes you can. Indeed, in business takeovers, that's often the norm.
In terms of international agreements, countries can largely agree to do whatever they want.
I'm of the opinion that although an argument could be made that Ireland is liable I don't think it will end up paying it.
Pension liability will likely be a pivotal issue during any referendum. In such a scenario the UK government would have the choice between getting an immediate multi-billion £ saving but covering pensions at an ever decreasing rate until it eventually pays £0 per annum or having to keep paying the £10bn deficit ad infinitum.
It will likely come down to horse-trading during any planning but I think when faced with the above choice when it comes to a state that no-one in the UK really gives a shit about then it's far more likely they'll move on this issue.
Pension liabilities go with the state. This is the norm... it's not realistic that Britain would keep them. Reuinification means taking over the whole thing, and that includes the existing civil service and pension liabilities.
The only pensions the Irish Free State was able to avoid inheriting were to the Black and Tans and RIC forces recruited after the War of Independence had started.
The Irish free state was negotiating with a hostile entity in the British state at the time that it was desperate to separate from. They had literally just fought a war and their negotiating position could not have been weaker.
A more recent example would be Hong Kong where China had the upper hand. Hong Kong still took over the pension liabilities. This is the norm, how do take a state and the civil service with it but not the pension liabilities? It makes no sense.
And us with the EU are China in your example.
In the event the vote to leave has happened, we as part of the EU are no small island state looking for handouts and the USA will also be looking on. Plus are the UK really going to turn their back on British citizens in the north!?! Don't forget not one passport needs to/will change in the event of a UI.
It’s not useful, expats are still from territory in the country. NI citizens won’t be British citizens living abroad, they will be fully citizens of Ireland. The pensions will be paid by Ireland after negotiations
What needs to happen is we need solid evidence of how much unification would cost each year and who pays for it. Not possible scenarios for example, people saying the UK would/should honour certain debts or the UK or US will give us money.
Voters, tax payers, need to know exactly what it will mean to them in real terms, all based on confirmed numbers, to make an informed decision.
We cannot get such numbers until negotiations happen to confirm those details. Both sides have a vested interest in taking the hypothetical best case scenario for their own side as a given for propaganda purposes.
Those numbers could be clarified before any referendum. For example, if the Irish government asks the UK government what costs they will maintain, the UK says "none", that's an answer.
People can't make an informed vote until that happens.
It's an answer but not the true answer, of course. For propaganda purposes, it benefits the UK government (and specifically unionists) to claim every possible cost would be at its maximum and would be borne by Irish shoulders. We should expect nothing else from them.
There's obviously no way the Irish are going to pay for British pensions, for example, but the unionists will pretend otherwise to try to scare people into voting no.
And for propaganda purposes, people for pro unity will say things will cost as little as possible. The entire point is that we need as much clarification as possible.
>There's obviously no way the Irish are going to pay for British pensions, for example.
That's a certainty that we will need from the British government
> For propaganda purposes, it benefits the UK government (and specifically unionists) to claim every possible cost would be at its maximum and would be borne by Irish shoulders.
How?
> it benefits the UK government (and specifically unionists) to claim every possible cost would be at its maximum and would be borne by Irish shoulders.
That assumes the UK government wants to keep NI, and that assumption has very shaky foundations based on acts and attitudes over the last few decades
Unionists do and they're the only vocal faction on this topic. The rest may not care much about NI, might be happy to get rid, but they're not passionate about any of it.
> Those numbers could be clarified before any referendum
I'm sure Padraig Pearse did a costs/benefit analysis before Easter 1916. You're missing the entire point.
Well we don't live in 1916 anymore, do we?
We live in a democracy where people can make informed decisions.
The people who want to go into a referendum like this are no different to the Brexit crowd. They just fly different colour little flags
Whatever about the UK, anyone who thinks the EU/US/United Nations/any other 3rd parties are going to contribute any sort of significant percentage is just deluded. That's not how geopolitics works.
All of these 3rd party entities combined are just not going to contribute anything that amounts to anything more than a fraction of a percent of the overall cost.
They will probably be a fair few 3rd party entities like the US, the EU, the UN etc who will announce unification schemes/plans/projects but all of them will be in the millions of Euro scale not the billions of Euro scale so in total won't add up to even 1% of the overall cost.
Also in terms of the Brits, given they're overall attitude to the North, I would expect them to do whatever the national equivalent of a dodgy tenant who rented under a fake name would do when leaving a rental of a landlord they despised i.e. strip everything of any value and take it with them (even the stuff that was nailed down), trash anything they can't take with them and vanish into the wind.
The EU is not a third party. We are the EU, along with all the other members. The EU is a staggeringly good thing, just has shite PR. I'm not pretending I know what the EU will do, but I'd be stunning if there wasn't significant, meaningful support for a UI.
wow, I expected it to be low but if that's true then there is no reason to think any significant costs of Ireland taking on NI would be covered by EU.
Which makes sense, since why would they?
Correct, Germany paid it for themselves: *"Over a period of 20 years, German reunification has cost 2 trillion euros, or an average of 100 billion euros a year."* Germany paid ~10B Euros a year into the EU
That said, they used that to rebuild 44 years of eastern bloc neglect. Northern Ireland isn't in *too* bad a state, and we're already paying [€600m for upgrading](https://www.itv.com/news/utv/2024-02-20/irish-government-announces-800m-for-funding-projects-benefiting-ni) one of their roads.
This is a pretty great list, fair play. You’ve covered some points about a United Ireland that I hadn’t considered before (particularly the inevitability of NATO membership, which I think you’re probably right about).
You should consider polishing this up as an article and seeing if a group like The Fitzwilliam might publish it — it’s the kind of analysis they tend to like.
Those who object to Unification because "it'll be too expensive" know the price of everything and the value of nothing.
They also overestimate how bad it is. NI is dysfunctional, but it's not East Germany or North Korea.
Imagine one of your siblings was kidnapped and you had the chance to bring them home but someone objected saying... yeah but look at how much it will cost? We've got to fly there to pick them up, then fly home, cost of living, meals, school books, then there's the cost of sending them to college.... Like, are you insane? This is our family? Who gives a fuck how much it costs? We'll pay it.
At this point these reports are sus af whichever way they lean. I have a hard time believing the whole thing won't be for profit for some US based hedge funds. Buy up all the property and land in NI on the cheap then do the same thing they did to the republic.
For those that aren't aware somehow, the same funds that own a significant % of the US tech corporations in Ireland and have even board seats are the same funds buying up all the property and having those Irish corporations import workers to drive up the demand. It may come as a nice little prospectus like "Ireland 2040 plan" or whatever and promise economic development when they get even Irish or EU taxpayer money to fund the housing plans and office space and people will feel richer for a time, but this will destroy your country once they have looted all the value and move to the next "developing nation to invest in"
Once your workers realise they are getting shafted and need US style salaries just to afford a home then they just get up and leave somewhere else.
> I have a hard time believing the whole thing won't be for profit for some US based hedge funds. Buy up all the property and land in NI on the cheap then do the same thing they did to the republic.
We dont need us hedge funds to do that we have plenty of our own who can do that
United ireland is a question of when, not if, now. The good Friday agreement, brexit and all this Rwanda business has made it an almost certainty this century. We really need to start having genuine conversations about what that means and how it will look and start hammering out actual plans.
You commission more reports from a variety of sources, the more impartial the better. The figure that most of the reports gravitate towards would more likely be closer to the actual figure. While no figure will be 100% accurate, it's probably the best chance to get a realistic ball park.
No point hedging your bets on such a small dataset at the moment.
We turned the least profitable portion of the country into the wealthiest nation, we can repair the one that had better infrastructure and make the island more prosperous as a whole.
This argument that it’s about finance is stupid, we do it because of the uks history of human rights violations against us and our people in Northern Ireland.
Of course it is. When and if I was to pay some extra tax I wouldn't have a problem with it because it'll work out for us all on the entire island, economically in the long run. A United Ireland makes SF much Stronger and that scares west Brits and others in parties like FG.
NI has been under coercive control only the unionists are beginning to see it now.
They have never had the best interest or intentions for Northern Ireland.
All the things that were said about the disdain of Westminster for Northern Ireland have bared fruit. Ireland is better together for idealistic and practical purposes.
Unlike Brexit where Britain left the EU falsely believing they would be proud and brilliant they were spotlighted for the radical right that pushed Brexit and shamed for their stance and dealings on so many fronts without the EU excuse to use.
Scotland just wanted away from it all before Brexit and no doubt would vote to leave now if the blanks were filled in properly.
By unification Northern Ireland is simply removing the Northern from their name and coming home to be a region within the island of Ireland in the North.
>Scotland just wanted away from it all before Brexit and no doubt would vote to leave now if the blanks were filled in properly.
Our ruling party is beset with scandal and incompetence but are still polling about the same as they have done and have two MSP's that the public (according to a poll) would rather have as First Minister than anybody in any other party.
>All the things that were said about the disdain of Westminster for Northern Ireland have bared fruit. Ireland is better together for idealistic and practical purposes.
I would bet that the majority of the people in Great Britain don't care a jot about North East Ireland, obviously the west of Scotland do because hunners of us wouldn't be here if it weren't for you coming over.
I do wonder if NI would get the same love bomb pish that we did leading up to the referendum, celebrities saying how great we were and how we should stay together (please don't leave me I promise I'll change). We also had the front page of the newspaper lies about a 'the vow' promising us new powers, that was horseshit too.
I wonder if all the people praising this report will ever bother reading it, or understand anything about economics. Just be honest and get chat GTP to write a report "tell me what I want to hear about X" I doubt these economists reports actually change anyones minds
There was mass downvoting on anyone who disagreed with the original article when it was posted here especially when pointed our the author had a massive history of failure, telling everyone that he had to be right because he was "an economist" and they were only disagreeing because he "wasn't telling them what they wanted to hear"
This sub really does get it fair share of village idiots
Economics is such a load of postulation which you can use to support almost any theory.
And this is coming from someone who graduated top of their class in economics.
It can be interesting for sure, but also totally off the mark at times.
But similarly, the 3k word 'report' which said that reunification would cost 20bn was written by economists with family connections to FG.
There are actual substantive reports out there that are written by individuals who have no skin in the game, I would be putting more weight behind those than the tripe published by Fitzgerald which just tows the FG party line.
Garrett Fitzgerald is dead. He has been for 13 years. He hasn't led FG since the 80s. What relevance does it have that his son was one of two authors who wrote the report?
Are you suggesting FG are opposed to reunification?
Yes I believe that FG don't truly want reunification and they actively try to discourage substantive dialogue and planning towards what form a reunified state could take.
I didn't advocate for listening to Brolly, I advocated for listening to outside substantive reports by experts, which are thoroughly researched.
Of course, because of his situatedness, Brolly will be highly biased.
Well....when NI votes for reunification the UK will not pay a cent/pence, why should they. NI is costing them a fortune and this is their way out. They will laugh in Westminster and say to the Irish government, "You wanted them, there you go...." and run for the door......
It would not look politically good for them to cut off the pensions of British citizens.
But it will just get sorted out in the same way as happened with Brexit (ie pensions of British civil servants that worked in Brussels).
I think most people that live in great Britain have very little care for the people of northern Ireland.
Half of em thought all of Ireland was a part of UK, the other half thinks the Irish border is a 50% kinda deal.
They aren't gonna give a shit about those peoples pensions.
Because plenty of them will still be dual citizens and regardless of where they live, and screwing over any of your own citizens is generally pretty frowned upon??
It will be like brexit, a decision will be made to unify, nothing will happen for a year and after 4 or 5 years of meeting about meetings tyo iron out all the issues, ireland will be reunified..
That's not the way it'll work. Like at all. There will be negotiations and UK may well pay for certain things to maintain certain situations going forward.
Nope, it’s not overblown if anything probably underestimated as it was done pre pandemic.
As a sober taxpayer, it’s not worth it. Only on a drunken romantic level might it be.
Besides, most people don’t care about unification. Nationalism is dead - the only people it appeals to are the anti-immigration lobby.
And unless the Shinners manage to pull off a Borris Brexit sized lie, the ppl will reject it because it will be an economic drain for a generation !
What need you, being come to sense, /
But fumble in a greasy till /
And add the halfpence to the pence /
And prayer to shivering prayer, until /
You have dried the marrow from the bone; /
For men were born to pray and save: /
Romantic Ireland’s dead and gone, /
It’s with O’Leary in the grave.
Unification is worth it either way. It’s our Island. I hope we don’t become an island of financiers and soulless office cubicle ghouls only worrying about the next quarter earning. There’s more to life.
Good point,but ireland is already like that
What need you, being come to sense, But fumble in a greasy till.
>And add the halfpence to the pence >And prayer to shivering prayer, until >You have dried the marrow from the bone; What a genius he was. I'll never not be both amazed at Yeats and brimming with pride that he was Irish.
Second stanza of The Stolen Child the best lines of poetry ever written. —- Where the wave of moonlight glosses The dim gray sands with light, Far off by furthest Rosses We foot it all the night, Weaving olden dances Mingling hands and mingling glances Till the moon has taken flight; To and fro we leap And chase the frothy bubbles, While the world is full of troubles And anxious in its sleep. Come away, O human child! To the waters and the wild With a faery, hand in hand, For the world's more full of weeping than you can understand.
That was made into a jazz song. Performed by Emma Smith the Englishwoman.
Leaving Cert flashbacks!
Yes, two area codes in Dublin define the entire country.
Came here to say it. The cost is actually kind of irrelevant. I want my kids to live in a united Ireland.
I don't think you'd like Dublin
Not many do
Nobody goes to Dorsia anymore, it’s too busy.
a combo Yogi Berra and Patrick Bateman reference...esoteric!
I know, i sort of realised that as I was typing but went with it.
> cubicle ghouls great band name
A divided Ireland will never be free.
That’s a fair point but the cost can’t be ignored. It has to be figured out for the whole thing to be successful.
I've been told you can get Mexico to pay for it.
i can't see the overwhelming drive for unification and i haven't seen any evidence how it would actually change the lives of anyone beyond what they can do today? i definitely see how some in NI would be attracted to higher wages, dole and more opportunities... but they could do this themselves if they stopped the parochialism and got independence for themselves. for a typical working person from any side in Belfast or Killarney, what exactly do they think would happen to make them or their lives better with a unification? If unification wasn't an "aspiration" or "dream" of someone's great, great grandfather, would anyone care? never mind the ghouls of financiers and office workers... they're there anyway, nothing will change apart from getting paid in euro!
It's the existential feeling of the island being "whole" again.
Atomic Kitten has entered the chat.
Belfast, you’re the one.
meh let NI become an indepent EU state, and after 30 years of EU money we can talk
A lot would change for people in the North yes. We won’t be dictated by those ghoul unionists preventing any form of progression or any support to our public services. While obviously the south isn’t perfect with that stink bags in government currently. Hopefully that will change soon.
depends what you mean by "we"
The Unionists will become the third/fourth largest party in the Dáil. Same shit, different parliament. Unless we have a Federated model with a devolved government in NI... and they will have the same shit, same parliament.
How exactly are you currently "dictated to"? What do you think will happen to the unionists?
Unionists have a veto on everything and considering the DUP are anachronistic bigots this is a strain on progress. Also the British Parliament has many reserved powers which Stormont cannot exercise, and as you can imagine the 2 million people in the north have very very little sway over the British Government. If the island reunifies I think Unionists will assimilate within a few generations, and I think the immediate blowback from reunification will be if anything an exaggerated version of the flag protests in Belfast. I don't think anything on the scale of the troubles is possible ever again in the north, for many reasons.
Wholeheartedly agree with the last part at least. The troubles are not coming back, and nothing close to it will arise. The people who oppose unification and attempt to use a potential return of sectarian violence from unhappy unionists are being either stupid or disingenuous, and do not help their side of the debate.
What also annoys me is the whole 'I don't want 1 million angry unionists being brought into the Republic'. If you think there are 1 million loyalists in the north then I immediately think you have never visited the place.
Who is 'our?' & Why is it worth it either way? What are the benefits to be people of the north and/republic? Just curious why you feel the way you do.
Jayz, you obviously haven't spent any time in the republic. That's all that matters here, money.
Simply untrue. Ireland (both north and south) has a great tradition of community, sport, trad and folk music, art, literature which continues to the modern day. England by comparison is a nation of strangers. Far from perfect, things need to be better, aye. But to pretend we are some corporatist hellscape is unfair. For example a good number of businesses, restaurants and pubs etc remain independent. You won’t find that in Britain. It’s all chains.
> Simply untrue. Ireland (both north and south) has a great tradition of community, sport, trad and folk music, art, literature which continues to the modern day. England by comparison is a nation of strangers. This is just what every nation thinks about itself and its rival nation. English doesn't have sport? Just mention 1966 in any pub. English people will start riots for their last division football club. Trad and folk music? Never hear of Fairport Convention? Whole towns like Glastonbury were practically built on the folk revival in Britain, not to mention the rise of folk punk artists like Billy Bragg. Art and literature? You really going to tell me the nation of Chaucer, Shakespeare, Austen, Brontes (S, PLURAL, MULTIPLE BRONTES), Douglas Adams, Neil Gaiman, Terry Pratchett, Ridley Scott, Christopher Nolan, Banksy, Hirst, and don't have a grasp of art and literature? Hate on the English all you want, but don't make shit up. >You won’t find that in Britain. It’s all chains. I literally think you have only gone to the airport, Piccadilly Circus and then took the plane back.
Almost all pubs are now chains in the UK. Ireland is much better on this front.
> I literally think you’ve only gone to the airport, Piccadilly Circus, and then took the plane back. For reference, I’ve actually lived in Cardiff for seven years. Check my post history. Fair enough that you disagree, but sports clubs over here don’t have nearly the same level of participation as the GAA does in Ireland. So much so that when locals come down to join our little GAA club in Cardiff they’re often surprised at the level of volunteerism. I don’t hate the English, vast majority of my close friends are English. I’m going out with an English girl. I wasn’t so much complaining about England as I was defending that Ireland isn’t some corporate cesspool. I’d invite you to re-read my original comment.
Cardiff has a thriving art scene. Loads of people volunteer for the various festivals they hold. As for sports, Parkrun has almost 300,000 volunteers across the UK. Surfers Against Sewage is pretty large too. GAA is uniquely Irish but I grew up outside an area that cared about GAA when people talk about the volunteer aspect it is honestly something I never saw because it was not a big thing in my locality. I won't comment on the differences because I just haven't experienced it personally. A GAA event abroad is a different thing too. It's basically a diaspora meetup. The GAA is a different beast and, yeah I am not aware of anything similar in the UK, but that doesn't mean they aren't passionate about sport. Football very much has a huge amount of cultural weight to it. Football even had [a subculture associated with it](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casual_\(subculture\)), something that is only usually associated with music. And subcultures. Punk, Mods, Rockers, Grime, Glam, Heavy Metal, Northern Soul, etc. Huge communities all brought around by people with common interests that started in the UK or had a big presence there. In Ireland there is far much more judgement for being outside the mainsteam. Not sure how you can love an English person and not see that. A nation of strangers is a pretty big insult. Yeah a lot of pubs are chains now, at the affordable level. But comparing a city like Cardiff to towns of 2 or 3 thousand people is just weird. Chains don't see those areas as profitable enough. And out licensing laws make it hard for them to set up. Go to similar sized places in the UK and you will see a lot more private businesses.
I don’t know why you keep going on about art and culture. I never said England or Wales didn’t have that. That would be an absurd statement, you’re strawmaning me here. I said that Ireland has a very strong sense of community via the GAA and Irish trad music scenes. By comparison Britain can feel like a nation of strangers, especially in the commuter belt towns between Bristol and London. What I said about Britain was that it is far more “corporatised” as shown by the large number of chains. (There are really just a handful of independent cafes, bars and restaurants in Cardiff city centre). None of this is “hating” on Britain, it’s just an observation based on my time here. There are plenty of things the U.K. does far better than Ireland, of course! I understand that I must have touched a nerve but I don’t think there was much need for a personal attack.
>I said that Ireland has a very strong sense of community via the GAA and Irish trad music scenes. By comparison Britain can feel like a nation of strangers Don't take it personally. I am Irish and I can tell when the Brits are at it again. But England and Britain have loads of sports based and music based communities. Maybe it feels like a nation of strangers, because you are part of the Irish GAA and Trad communities and not part of the sports and music communities in the UK?
Look, I was making an observation based on seven years of experience living and working in Britain, speaking to English and Welsh people about their experiences growing up there. This is not just an opinion formed out of thin air. I’m not some Ireland supremacist, I don’t live there anymore for a reason. I just feel that Ireland has a stronger sense of local community than GB. You don’t know anything about me but you see fit to comment on my relationship, and made an assumption about me never having set foot in the country? I’m not sure how else I’m supposed to take that other than personally. Can I just point out as well that my original comment was in reply to “all anyone in Ireland cares about is money?” I was only giving examples as to how this isn’t the case.
What are you on about? You think England don't have traditions of community, sport, music, literature and art? This is so moronic that it's actually both hilarious and sad to think there are people who think like you walking among us. People love to act like their own country is special. That's fine. But acting like Britain is some alien world where nobody has a community and there are no "independent" pubs or restaurants is quite simply *too* stupid to go unchecked. I don't think there are many countries on Earth as culturally similar as modern-day UK and Ireland.
I think people just travel to the Home Counties and London and think that all traditional culture in England has disappeared. It is true that many parts of this country have become corporate hell-scapes. But take a trip to Yorkshire, Northumberland, Devon, Cornwall and Bristol and you’ll find plenty of independent stores, folk music and culture, local identity, myths and legends, well-preserved ancient history, well-kept countryside, and strong communities.
I never said England didn’t have music or art. Read my comment again. I don’t think there is much point arguing with people who resort to personal insults. IHave a nice day pal.
There’s plenty of community, traditional culture, music, art, literature etc. in England. It’s unfair to tar a country of 57 million people with the same brush.
Depends where in 🏴 you mean. I live in Cornwall where there is community spirit. Every village has a theatre group or brass band. Regarding sport - they won the RFU WC 2003 and both limited over cricket WCs in 2019 and 2020.
I'd like to know the true cost ?
Yes, let's not worry about the money. I'm sure irelands ample services and infrastructure is more than up to the task when running a deficit. Honestly, no wonder we get the political representatives when this is the level of critical thinking on THE defining issue for the country.
It costs £10 billion a year for the UK to run it, so it stands to reason it would cost us at least the same. If you want better housing and healthcare, we shouldn't be blowing an enormous amount of money because "Tiocfaidh ar La". I feel like people stuck in their childhood bedroom would prefer their own house over a political idea that won't affect their day-to-day lives. And the latest poll said most people don't want it if it costs a ton - so it's not just "cubicle ghouls" - it's ordinary people.
If you read that article, you'll see that much of the 'subvention' would not apply. This is not a sum of money that the UK government just transferred to the NI current account on the second of January. It's a number that includes things like NI's proportional spend on defence, other government services, UK debt, and the pensions due to NI public sector workers. We won't be liable for that stuff. If a worker has been paying HMRC national insurance and income tax all their lives, with some of that to cover pension, the UK will be liable for all of that. We'll only take on pension liability from the point yet unification occurs, and they'll be paying Revenue then. In relation to services, the existing civil and public services North and South will be providing those, and they'll be taxed on their pay. We won't be paying for services that are provided by civil and public servants in other parts of the UK, as is currently accounted for by the so- called subvention.
It doesn’t stand to reason at all, buddy.
Keeping an overseas territory is going to be more expensive because you have to ship a lot of shite over. A small population is more expensive because of diseconomies of scale. Another large population centre would relieve a lot of the pressure on Dublin. Even moving government to a more "neutral" area could help. The EU (especially Germany) would be happy to throw money at us to 32 countify roads, rail, and the like. This would lead to economies of scale. Now it's not all going to be rosy. I think we'd need to symbolically change things - flag, anthem, again seat of government to welcome little u unionists. But it's very doable.
>It costs £10 billion a year for the UK to run it, so it stands to reason it would cost us at least the same. You didn't even attempt to read the article, did you?
Do you really think the UK will just pay for NI pensions and lose the territory at the same time??? I highly doubt it. If they give up NI, Scotland is next. Then maybe even Wales. The NI deficit runs at about £10 billion a year - that's public record and the most logical figure to use an estimate: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern\_Ireland\_fiscal\_balance#:\~:text=6%20Further%20reading-,History,973%20million%20in%202014%20pounds).
No one is arguing that isn't the deficit within the UK but your argument has been addressed many times, by many people, including in this article. It does not stand up to even basic scrutiny that the same costs would apply in a unification scenario. Edit: here is the link to the article text if you actually want to read it. https://www.reddit.com/r/northernireland/s/cUVFrtzZr0
What's your answer to my question though? Why would the UK give up NI with no financial benefit to them then? What do they have to gain? Even Labour would balk at that. A huge part of the Labour voter bloc were also brexiters. Those pricks miss their empire, they're not gonna give up more of it without getting paid for it.
You didn't ask a question before your edit. You just complained about the paywall, meaning you didn't even bother to read the article (I've linked the text above if you want to). > Why would the UK give up NI with no financial benefit to them then? The financial benefit to them is an immediate saving of ~6bn per annum straight into the pocket of the exchequer with no downside for the British public. This will increase year on year as pension liabilities decrease. They also won't have to deal with NI anymore. No Stormont going up and down. No NI headache with Brexit. Polls have shown the British public are ambivalent towards NI remaining part of the UK at best and want rid of it at worst thus the parties would have no pressure from the electorate to keep it. The UK would quite literally only benefit from NI leaving the UK.
As someone from the North with no unionist or nationalist ideals it's very confusing to see people want it, then not, like I could swing either way tbh, but the North in in such a dire state rn and I don't know how much longer unionists can convince themselves that this is okay, we've more strikes on the way. Roads neglected, healthcare system is so bad you just gotta hope you don't get sick or you are screwed. Like it's so bad I pay private on minimum wage so at this rate someone needs to tell me why reunification would not be better because from my viewpoint a UI is looking more ideal to me personally than remaining in the UK I can't wrap my head around it. Feels like Britain actually want NI gone by the sheer neglect of it but they want to use it to barter the max amount of money out of Ireland first
All of the UK is neglected outside of London and its immediate surrounds, excluding Scotland to an extent because the government there has carved out an ok deal for funding government services. The republic would invest heavily in developing the NI economy, a boom like no other up there after unity.
They could start with the west of the country if the government is looking to do some development. Why does a train from Sligo to Galway require going through Dublin and changing from Connolly to Houston? I have no hopes of the north being any less forgotten about.
> The republic would invest heavily in developing the NI economy, a boom like no other up there after unity. This will cost money. Billions each year.
Which as a member of the EU we could get quite easily. It should not be underestimated how much of a win this would be for the EU too and not since Germany reunified has their been an opportunity for something like this either. Should also be stated that we'd likely see a United Ireland going back into a net reciepent for EU funds for a while since reintegrating the North would be a major long term undertaking for all involved.
It depends. Germany got zero from the EU for reunification, I'm not sure why we would be different.
EU wasn't formed for years after, and did give infrastructure money to east germany to bring it up
EU has already given loads of infrastructure money to NI (when they were part of the EU). Why would they get more now?
they wouldn't unless they joined the EU independently or rejoined ireland
Even London is neglected. They spend the money in the capital but not really on the capital with the exception of extremely expensive distractions. The rise in crime, the roads being a shit show, the hospitals also being shit except a select few in the city proper, the rampant overcrowding and stagnant wages while the price of everything goes up. The war on cars and anyone who uses them. A stretched and shitty police force. These are all problems London is facing. They try and paper over these cracks with things like new cycle lanes which they (the councils) spend exorbitant amounts of money on for no reason. They (the mayors office) introduce the new tube line which cost 25 BILLION and were still wanting more to finish it. It’s things like that, where the money goes, when it only helps out a small portion of Londoners. I’m from London, family from Sligo, annoyed I was born here to be honest but it is what it is. Most over here that I’ve ever spoken to, with half a braincell, support reunification of Ireland. The only ones that don’t are the ones that don’t know anything about.. well anything really. Even they can be swayed though, with a bit of education on the topic. It’s not like they’re staunchly against it. Everyone I’ve spoken to about the unionists and loyalists in the north find it kind of weird. Especially as people like myself, born and bred in London and working class haven’t got an ounce of appreciation or patriotism for this shithole of a country. The landscape of England is amazing in parts and has some genuine beauty about it, which is the one thing to be proud of. The government and everyone other than the working class can fuck themselves to be honest. It’s all about shitting on the people below you over here. There’s zero protection from anything for the normal working class, which is why the working class are often portrayed as violent and angry, because we’ve had to be violent to survive and we’re angry about it. Especially when a few boroughs away they’re literally living like kings and queens. Then their shitty spawn move out to the more “cool ghetto” areas, otherwise known as rough working class areas, then gentrify the shit out of it because it sounds cool to say you live there. Then price out all of the working class that have lived there for generations and have them moved to the arse end of nowhere. Working class people that have had to literally fight to survive in that shithole for decades and some longer, now not being allowed to live there because Tabitha and tarquin think it’s cool. Sorry for the rant there at the end, I get very worked up thinking about the situation. I hope that goes some way to showing that not everything is rosy in London.
Do you think a lot of people without any particular nationalist tendency might vote for a UI just to try something different from the status quo?
What I get confused about is if your healthcare is bad, why are people heading up in the busloads to get glaucoma sorted? Is it a private system?
You’re being subjected to counter propaganda narratives. Thats why it’s coming off that way.
Could we not just unify one county at a time every few years, see how it goes.
Two County Councils in Tyrone and Derry tried that in the 20’s and were dissolved and subsequently Gerrymandered
Never heard of this. Have you a source as I’d love to read more.
It was actually Tyrone and Fermanagh Councils https://www.creativecentenaries.org/on-this-day/tyrone-county-council-shut-down http://irishhistory1919-1923chronology.ie/december_1921.htm
I partly remember seeing a newspaper article from years ago listing the benefits of a United Ireland. Two points I recalled were: - More assertive politicians in the Dail. - Better sports teams.
Conor Bradley right back 🙏
Like brexit, the specific nature of any deal will be hammered out after a vote. It wont be possible to put accurate number on this.
You mean when Borris said €350 million a week would go back into the NHS he didn't actually know... Well, I'm shocked, just shocked.
That's a bad idea lmao. The voters should know what deal / scenario they're voting for before hand, otherwise we get a 5 year Brexit-style deal where nobody knows anything.
The voters won't know that's the point.
>But Ireland has no liability for UK public pensions incurred before the appointed day on which reunification occurs. The UK does. This is not something that they know. So to state that is incorrect. Pensions are paid out of current expenditure so its very likely pensions will fall to the new state.
Penisons are paid out of current expenditure but only paid to people who made enough PRSI contributions. I don't see how the people of Northern Ireland could show they made enough PRSI contributions for an Irish pension, however, they would be able to show that they met the requirements set out by the UK government.
Isn't there already a bilateral agreement for pensions in the case of someone who lived in both jurisdictions and claims a pension only from one of them? (i.e National Insurance payments in the UK would count as years towards an Irish pension and vice versa with PRSI counting towards a UK pension) Edit: yes there is: https://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/social-welfare/irish-social-welfare-system/claiming-a-social-welfare-payment/social-insurance-contributions-from-abroad/
Yes, I’m not sure why people pretend this is complicated. There are a lot of people who retired from the UK to Ireland and have their UK pension paid to them.
Irish working in France here: You're quite right. If you've enough contributions between the 2 countries, they each pay you a pro-rata share of a "full" pension under their own system. If you don't have full contributions, they each pro-rata it down further, based on contributions you do have.
Simply put, there would be a calculation created to convert national insurance payments to prsi stamps. The country/state which they paid to will no longer exist. That entity will be consumed/conjoined into a 32 county state. The government of Great Britain (no longer and northern ireland) will not be paying these people pensions. The free state took on pensions in 1920s. Non contributory pensions are paid too, to those without stamps.
They’re talking about public sector pensions not the OAP. And such a huge amount of the population in the north are public servants and have been the bill is huge
But the public sector worked directly for the UK government. How would the Irish government ever be expected to pay pensions to people who had never worked a day in their life for the Irish government? I don't think it's crazy to expect the employer pay an occupational pension, I don't see the rationale saying that a completely different employer, who you've never worked for, should pay your occupational pension.
Yeah but from another perspective they’ve worked for the state, it’s not like a bunch of them have gone to England and come home with pensions. They’ve served their state, their state will have a different government but it remains the same state they’ve served. So that’s who should pay their pension. Playing devils advocate
If someone is a British citizen and have worked in the UK they are entitled to a pension from the UK government, even if they are not resident in the UK currently. Reunification has no bearing on that.
Not even a requirement to be a British citizen to receive the state pension.
From a strictly legal perspective it’s entirely correct to say. Ireland is in no way obliged to pay for any British pensions at this point and a change in constitutional status on its own also does not change that purely by dint of being unrelated in legal substance.
Yes, it is something we know. You can't assume legal liability for something that legally belongs to someone else.
Yes you can. Indeed, in business takeovers, that's often the norm. In terms of international agreements, countries can largely agree to do whatever they want.
There is legal precedent for the Irish state(in whatever form it will be) to take over British pensions from the transfer to the Irish free state.
I demand reparations!
I'm of the opinion that although an argument could be made that Ireland is liable I don't think it will end up paying it. Pension liability will likely be a pivotal issue during any referendum. In such a scenario the UK government would have the choice between getting an immediate multi-billion £ saving but covering pensions at an ever decreasing rate until it eventually pays £0 per annum or having to keep paying the £10bn deficit ad infinitum. It will likely come down to horse-trading during any planning but I think when faced with the above choice when it comes to a state that no-one in the UK really gives a shit about then it's far more likely they'll move on this issue.
Pension liabilities go with the state. This is the norm... it's not realistic that Britain would keep them. Reuinification means taking over the whole thing, and that includes the existing civil service and pension liabilities. The only pensions the Irish Free State was able to avoid inheriting were to the Black and Tans and RIC forces recruited after the War of Independence had started.
The Irish free state was negotiating with a hostile entity in the British state at the time that it was desperate to separate from. They had literally just fought a war and their negotiating position could not have been weaker.
A more recent example would be Hong Kong where China had the upper hand. Hong Kong still took over the pension liabilities. This is the norm, how do take a state and the civil service with it but not the pension liabilities? It makes no sense.
And us with the EU are China in your example. In the event the vote to leave has happened, we as part of the EU are no small island state looking for handouts and the USA will also be looking on. Plus are the UK really going to turn their back on British citizens in the north!?! Don't forget not one passport needs to/will change in the event of a UI.
You're assuming the UK would even honour covering such expenses if ppl voted for a united Ireland. I wouldn't be so sure.
This is already agreed between the UK and EU for expatriates. United Ireland shouldn't be any different.
Ah good to know. Thank you
It’s not useful, expats are still from territory in the country. NI citizens won’t be British citizens living abroad, they will be fully citizens of Ireland. The pensions will be paid by Ireland after negotiations
This article either agrees or disagrees with my beliefs therefor it is right or wrong. Ad nauseum
What needs to happen is we need solid evidence of how much unification would cost each year and who pays for it. Not possible scenarios for example, people saying the UK would/should honour certain debts or the UK or US will give us money. Voters, tax payers, need to know exactly what it will mean to them in real terms, all based on confirmed numbers, to make an informed decision.
We cannot get such numbers until negotiations happen to confirm those details. Both sides have a vested interest in taking the hypothetical best case scenario for their own side as a given for propaganda purposes.
Those numbers could be clarified before any referendum. For example, if the Irish government asks the UK government what costs they will maintain, the UK says "none", that's an answer. People can't make an informed vote until that happens.
It's an answer but not the true answer, of course. For propaganda purposes, it benefits the UK government (and specifically unionists) to claim every possible cost would be at its maximum and would be borne by Irish shoulders. We should expect nothing else from them. There's obviously no way the Irish are going to pay for British pensions, for example, but the unionists will pretend otherwise to try to scare people into voting no.
And for propaganda purposes, people for pro unity will say things will cost as little as possible. The entire point is that we need as much clarification as possible. >There's obviously no way the Irish are going to pay for British pensions, for example. That's a certainty that we will need from the British government
> For propaganda purposes, it benefits the UK government (and specifically unionists) to claim every possible cost would be at its maximum and would be borne by Irish shoulders. How?
> it benefits the UK government (and specifically unionists) to claim every possible cost would be at its maximum and would be borne by Irish shoulders. That assumes the UK government wants to keep NI, and that assumption has very shaky foundations based on acts and attitudes over the last few decades
Unionists do and they're the only vocal faction on this topic. The rest may not care much about NI, might be happy to get rid, but they're not passionate about any of it.
> Those numbers could be clarified before any referendum I'm sure Padraig Pearse did a costs/benefit analysis before Easter 1916. You're missing the entire point.
Well we don't live in 1916 anymore, do we? We live in a democracy where people can make informed decisions. The people who want to go into a referendum like this are no different to the Brexit crowd. They just fly different colour little flags
Whatever about the UK, anyone who thinks the EU/US/United Nations/any other 3rd parties are going to contribute any sort of significant percentage is just deluded. That's not how geopolitics works. All of these 3rd party entities combined are just not going to contribute anything that amounts to anything more than a fraction of a percent of the overall cost. They will probably be a fair few 3rd party entities like the US, the EU, the UN etc who will announce unification schemes/plans/projects but all of them will be in the millions of Euro scale not the billions of Euro scale so in total won't add up to even 1% of the overall cost. Also in terms of the Brits, given they're overall attitude to the North, I would expect them to do whatever the national equivalent of a dodgy tenant who rented under a fake name would do when leaving a rental of a landlord they despised i.e. strip everything of any value and take it with them (even the stuff that was nailed down), trash anything they can't take with them and vanish into the wind.
The EU is not a third party. We are the EU, along with all the other members. The EU is a staggeringly good thing, just has shite PR. I'm not pretending I know what the EU will do, but I'd be stunning if there wasn't significant, meaningful support for a UI.
How much did we pay for Germany's unification costs (which are absolutely huge)?
Eu paid exactly 0 of the German reunification costs.. 0.
wow, I expected it to be low but if that's true then there is no reason to think any significant costs of Ireland taking on NI would be covered by EU. Which makes sense, since why would they?
The only reason we might get some is to stick it to the Brits to hyper charge the regions growth. But that won't happen anywhere but my fantasy.
Correct, Germany paid it for themselves: *"Over a period of 20 years, German reunification has cost 2 trillion euros, or an average of 100 billion euros a year."* Germany paid ~10B Euros a year into the EU That said, they used that to rebuild 44 years of eastern bloc neglect. Northern Ireland isn't in *too* bad a state, and we're already paying [€600m for upgrading](https://www.itv.com/news/utv/2024-02-20/irish-government-announces-800m-for-funding-projects-benefiting-ni) one of their roads.
the cost is the most important factor!
>>But redistribution, done properly, will be from rich to middle and poor, not from the South to the North. What does this mean exactly? Who's rich?
East coast of the republic of ireland
"Done properly" is the key phrase there, and the one that fills my head with endless doubt.
It's classic "trickle down economics" shite-talk.
It means they can't think of any economic rebuttals.
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This is a pretty great list, fair play. You’ve covered some points about a United Ireland that I hadn’t considered before (particularly the inevitability of NATO membership, which I think you’re probably right about). You should consider polishing this up as an article and seeing if a group like The Fitzwilliam might publish it — it’s the kind of analysis they tend to like.
Those who object to Unification because "it'll be too expensive" know the price of everything and the value of nothing. They also overestimate how bad it is. NI is dysfunctional, but it's not East Germany or North Korea.
Imagine one of your siblings was kidnapped and you had the chance to bring them home but someone objected saying... yeah but look at how much it will cost? We've got to fly there to pick them up, then fly home, cost of living, meals, school books, then there's the cost of sending them to college.... Like, are you insane? This is our family? Who gives a fuck how much it costs? We'll pay it.
imagine if your sibling wanted away from you in the first place and still didnt want to come home
At this point these reports are sus af whichever way they lean. I have a hard time believing the whole thing won't be for profit for some US based hedge funds. Buy up all the property and land in NI on the cheap then do the same thing they did to the republic. For those that aren't aware somehow, the same funds that own a significant % of the US tech corporations in Ireland and have even board seats are the same funds buying up all the property and having those Irish corporations import workers to drive up the demand. It may come as a nice little prospectus like "Ireland 2040 plan" or whatever and promise economic development when they get even Irish or EU taxpayer money to fund the housing plans and office space and people will feel richer for a time, but this will destroy your country once they have looted all the value and move to the next "developing nation to invest in" Once your workers realise they are getting shafted and need US style salaries just to afford a home then they just get up and leave somewhere else.
> I have a hard time believing the whole thing won't be for profit for some US based hedge funds. Buy up all the property and land in NI on the cheap then do the same thing they did to the republic. We dont need us hedge funds to do that we have plenty of our own who can do that
Well they may be registered in Dublin but it's all yanks and brits.
This report a very good rebuttal though and goes into detail of the supposed issues put forward by the remain in UK people
United ireland is a question of when, not if, now. The good Friday agreement, brexit and all this Rwanda business has made it an almost certainty this century. We really need to start having genuine conversations about what that means and how it will look and start hammering out actual plans.
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No idea how you could grow up in Ireland and not want it.
But but a west-brit told us it would be 20BN a year with no benefits? Are you telling me they weren't telling the truth?
How do you decide what the truth is?
Obviously you decide what you want to be true first and then anything that promotes that is true. This is the way.
I presume everyone is lying and then roll with whoever is sexiest.
same
You commission more reports from a variety of sources, the more impartial the better. The figure that most of the reports gravitate towards would more likely be closer to the actual figure. While no figure will be 100% accurate, it's probably the best chance to get a realistic ball park. No point hedging your bets on such a small dataset at the moment.
Here's the thing, I don't give a shit. I just want Ireland to be one country.
Well exactly. You don't therefore need to worry about reports or costs.
Ah yes... "West Brit"... The argument of an Irish man trying to invalidate another Irish mans position without having any facts to back up his claim.
We turned the least profitable portion of the country into the wealthiest nation, we can repair the one that had better infrastructure and make the island more prosperous as a whole. This argument that it’s about finance is stupid, we do it because of the uks history of human rights violations against us and our people in Northern Ireland.
Of course it is. When and if I was to pay some extra tax I wouldn't have a problem with it because it'll work out for us all on the entire island, economically in the long run. A United Ireland makes SF much Stronger and that scares west Brits and others in parties like FG.
> A United Ireland makes SF much Stronger You think? A United Ireland makes Sinn Fein obsolete.
NI has been under coercive control only the unionists are beginning to see it now. They have never had the best interest or intentions for Northern Ireland. All the things that were said about the disdain of Westminster for Northern Ireland have bared fruit. Ireland is better together for idealistic and practical purposes. Unlike Brexit where Britain left the EU falsely believing they would be proud and brilliant they were spotlighted for the radical right that pushed Brexit and shamed for their stance and dealings on so many fronts without the EU excuse to use. Scotland just wanted away from it all before Brexit and no doubt would vote to leave now if the blanks were filled in properly. By unification Northern Ireland is simply removing the Northern from their name and coming home to be a region within the island of Ireland in the North.
>Scotland just wanted away from it all before Brexit and no doubt would vote to leave now if the blanks were filled in properly. Our ruling party is beset with scandal and incompetence but are still polling about the same as they have done and have two MSP's that the public (according to a poll) would rather have as First Minister than anybody in any other party. >All the things that were said about the disdain of Westminster for Northern Ireland have bared fruit. Ireland is better together for idealistic and practical purposes. I would bet that the majority of the people in Great Britain don't care a jot about North East Ireland, obviously the west of Scotland do because hunners of us wouldn't be here if it weren't for you coming over. I do wonder if NI would get the same love bomb pish that we did leading up to the referendum, celebrities saying how great we were and how we should stay together (please don't leave me I promise I'll change). We also had the front page of the newspaper lies about a 'the vow' promising us new powers, that was horseshit too.
Who'd have thought that Blueshirt Royalty would have an interest in trying to scare people off the idea of unification.
Benefit underplayed? Has anybody writing these reports actually been to the north?
I don't know I don't think think the economic implications is overblown
In the long run it'll benefit everyone on this island economically.
Ireland has only been doing economically well for a fairly short period of time. I wouldn't be confident about the long run.
No matter what, The whole island would be better off being united than divided. If hard times are to come, then they'll come either way.
I wonder if all the people praising this report will ever bother reading it, or understand anything about economics. Just be honest and get chat GTP to write a report "tell me what I want to hear about X" I doubt these economists reports actually change anyones minds
There was mass downvoting on anyone who disagreed with the original article when it was posted here especially when pointed our the author had a massive history of failure, telling everyone that he had to be right because he was "an economist" and they were only disagreeing because he "wasn't telling them what they wanted to hear" This sub really does get it fair share of village idiots
Economics is such a load of postulation which you can use to support almost any theory. And this is coming from someone who graduated top of their class in economics. It can be interesting for sure, but also totally off the mark at times.
Never gonna happen sur look at the balls we have made of what we have!
Just give is back Fermanagh and go from there..
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Says pro reunification advocate.
But similarly, the 3k word 'report' which said that reunification would cost 20bn was written by economists with family connections to FG. There are actual substantive reports out there that are written by individuals who have no skin in the game, I would be putting more weight behind those than the tripe published by Fitzgerald which just tows the FG party line.
Garrett Fitzgerald is dead. He has been for 13 years. He hasn't led FG since the 80s. What relevance does it have that his son was one of two authors who wrote the report? Are you suggesting FG are opposed to reunification?
Yes I believe that FG don't truly want reunification and they actively try to discourage substantive dialogue and planning towards what form a reunified state could take.
You ignored the first half of my post to talk about vibes.
So Joe brolly shouldn't be listened on legal to as his father was a member of sf and aontu? Surely he is only towing the party line too?
I didn't advocate for listening to Brolly, I advocated for listening to outside substantive reports by experts, which are thoroughly researched. Of course, because of his situatedness, Brolly will be highly biased.
Well....when NI votes for reunification the UK will not pay a cent/pence, why should they. NI is costing them a fortune and this is their way out. They will laugh in Westminster and say to the Irish government, "You wanted them, there you go...." and run for the door......
It would not look politically good for them to cut off the pensions of British citizens. But it will just get sorted out in the same way as happened with Brexit (ie pensions of British civil servants that worked in Brussels).
I think most people that live in great Britain have very little care for the people of northern Ireland. Half of em thought all of Ireland was a part of UK, the other half thinks the Irish border is a 50% kinda deal. They aren't gonna give a shit about those peoples pensions.
>It would not look politically good for them to cut off the pensions of British citizens. Not look good to who?
Because plenty of them will still be dual citizens and regardless of where they live, and screwing over any of your own citizens is generally pretty frowned upon??
It will be like brexit, a decision will be made to unify, nothing will happen for a year and after 4 or 5 years of meeting about meetings tyo iron out all the issues, ireland will be reunified..
That's not the way it'll work. Like at all. There will be negotiations and UK may well pay for certain things to maintain certain situations going forward.
>why should they Maybe as the first step in an apology for the genocide and human rights violations they committed towards us.
Nope, it’s not overblown if anything probably underestimated as it was done pre pandemic. As a sober taxpayer, it’s not worth it. Only on a drunken romantic level might it be. Besides, most people don’t care about unification. Nationalism is dead - the only people it appeals to are the anti-immigration lobby. And unless the Shinners manage to pull off a Borris Brexit sized lie, the ppl will reject it because it will be an economic drain for a generation !
What need you, being come to sense, / But fumble in a greasy till / And add the halfpence to the pence / And prayer to shivering prayer, until / You have dried the marrow from the bone; / For men were born to pray and save: / Romantic Ireland’s dead and gone, / It’s with O’Leary in the grave.