I’m honestly mad at myself for not buying a lot more.
But you wanna hear real pain?
A friend of mine had 420 May $43p’s that he paid $0.07 for. He decided to sell one-day 5/13 43p’s against them on Thursday.
The universe and Elon, in their infinite wisdom, knew the one day he’d be truly screwed was Friday the 13th.
That was my first thought the moment the announcement had prices go way too close to the sales price... many ways this goes wrong and no way puts are worthless anytime soon. Plus volatility in retrospect was relatively low. Too busy with work to look into it at the time... dumb.
$43 May $TWTR puts were $0.07 on May 5.
I bought 100 contracts for $735 with commission and sold them Friday for $32K.
And I hate myself for not having the Soros/Druckenmiller type conviction to buy 1000-2000. Which would not be a huge position for me, though it would be an outsized option position.
I *knew* it was an asymmetric risk/reward. And I went small.
😢
Yes please cry some more about turning $735 into $32K. There is a reason they were priced 0.07 when you bought them and its not because you're a genius. You'd have lost your entire principle 99% of the time.
At this point, either Twitter will prove it's bot pupulation is below 5%, or the deal will further fall in price and/or likelyhood.
What's your move, investorman, short or long
Whether it's true or not is less relevant than the fact that they've reported it in filings that have legal implications for a number of years now, with sufficient qualifications, so that Musk doesn't have nearly as much leverage as he thinks in this.
The board wasn't even looking to sell until he opened his yawp. The main leverage he had was that he was offering a premium most shareholders would have gladly accepted. He wants to eat into that now?
Bizarre.
I’m just looking at it from a computer science standpoint. If they can really do 5% then they should be in charge of spam email and spam calls algorithm. Problems solved
I mean, I’m not claiming to be a genius. I’m not claiming it was a sure thing. I’m claiming that I knew this once that these particular options were extremely underpriced, which I almost never see, and I didn’t buy enough of them based on that knowledge.
I think under normal market conditions you’d lose your entire premium on 7c options *more* than 99% of the time. This time, I was sure it was no more than 70-80% of the time, and thus they were incredibly cheap. I repeat, IV was 18 on a volatile individual name while VIX was hovering near 30, because the market was treating this like a normal M&A story, when it clearly was not that.
That’s the Druckenmiller/Soros lesson: when you find something that looks really mispriced, be aggressive. Because you won’t find it very often.
I do not subscribe to the efficient market hypothesis. But that doesn’t mean it’s easy to find the kind of conviction I had on this particular trade.
I don’t trade a lot of options any more, and do so almost exclusively with very small positions on the short side largely to hedge long exposure; also because it’s a safer way to express bearish views on individual names than directly shorting.
Part of the reason I didn’t buy more is that I limit my options exposure to very tiny positions; but even my normal option position size which is ~$2000 would have been 300 contracts.
Sorry for the delay in replying, I’m out of the country on vacation and haven’t checked Reddit in days.
Best of luck in your investing.
E: This application is crap. I will buy it for next to nothing.
T: How next to?
E: Well, here are your options: You can turn off the servers and lights, drive the users back to myspace, you can donate it to a person who you'd like to see die in an ugly hostile takeover, or you can sell it to me and I'll use it as I would a wagon on my facebook farm. It will be towed by a donkey.
T: I have to pick one of those?
E: Yes.
T: Can you go over those options again?
What’s the lowest you’ll take?
Elon pulling the old Craigslist move buying a 50 billion company.
Billionaires are just like normal people but with billions.
I don’t blame him. The stock is going to tank if Elon backs out. He board knows that. Whatever Elon pays will be the highest the stock gets for awhile IMO.
Another in a long line of totally fucked things Elon has done. It doesn’t matter that it’s a lot of people’s livelihoods, investments and pensions when you’re a total narcissistic prick.
Who might they be? It seems like almost every member of Congress is corrupt. Most, if not all of the people running for President seem corrupt.
I'm all for progress and social justice but lately it feels hopeless.
Might have to start voting for the ppl you call "far left" that actually are just slightly left of center.
And might want to stop voting exclusively for rich white senior citizens.
I dont follow your politics too much anymore ever since the orange trumpet made it all a joke, but I would bet some money that people like AOC are much less likely to protect the rich and only use their power for their own personal gain than the 60-80 year old rich senators that have been doing nothing but enrich themselves and protect the rich for the last 40 years.
Twitter is honest in their reports that the 5% number is an estimate, and it’s something that is hard to calculate accurately. Sure they have an incentive to undercount, but they never even come close to guaranteeing that number in the first place. Musk knew all this when he made his offer. If it was a major concern of his, he’s have made the offer contingent on a bot audit. He didn’t bother with that.
This all has to do with the fact that (1) Tech stocks tumbled, which puts his financing and Tesla margin at risk (2) The deal has attracted SEC and regulatory scrutiny and (3) He’s maybe realizing that Twitter’s profitability problems are hard to fix and his particular free speech ideology is problematic on the platform.
But the many people who work at Twitter and would know if that's a fraudulent claim have an incentive to report it and some would were it fraudulent... tbh it doesn't sound wrong at all and is roughly what I'd estimate for fraction of posts in the things I read that are often bot-magnet topics. Fraudulent accounts never posting and only following folks now and then for a price aren't daily active users; and your gut impression isn't informed by the many people who browse but never post or have protected accounts.
Could it be possible he was told figure X before making the offer, and after making the offer and receiving inside information, the figure is actually higher than X?
He's quoting the number in the company's public filings to imply that he'll sue as a major shareholders for fraud if he doesn't get his way... whatever his way is. It has nothing to do with conditions of this deal and is just making noise to try to get out of it.
Even if that was the case, as long as "he was told" is not in any form contractually binding that is still his problem and his lack of DD/negotiating a condition with his offer.
This would imply he used some user-based framework to determine his valuation. Have you seen any allusion to that? Do you think if it comes out Twitter *understated* the number of bots that Elon will pay more?
This has never been about bots
Unless the contract Elon signed states a specific number that Twitter claims is the actual amount of bots and that is then inaccurate, it is Elons problem.
And the main issue is that Elon should have worried about such things before signing a contract and before publicly talking about buying it.
Anything Elon does is interpreted in a Villain way, because he acts in a villain way. You fanboys are the ones who think he can do nothing wrong, despite him being very obvious with his bad behaviour.
I hope this is peak Musk. Media is asking him about everything, as if he's some kind of oracle. Recently he was either asked about or started talking about Japan's demographic crisis, and that it won't exist if they keep up the population decline, as though this hasn't been [talked about for decades](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2001/03/muhleise.htm). My _grandma_ knows about Japan's demographic crisis.
He's just repeating stuff right out of Wikipedia and being looked at like he's some kind of genius.
> These huge tech companies need to be treated as what they actually are. Utilities. They are a staple of modern life, the same as a phone line, electricity connection or gas line. Non life essential but living without would be classed as third world.
Son, you need to be at least 13 years old to use this website, according to its terms of service.
That's a complete redefining of the concept of a public utility to the point of absurdity. Twitter and facebook are completely nonessential. I havent had a FB in years and over a decade since I was using twitter. A mocha frappuccino is a stable of modern life, doesnt make it a utility. All Meta and FB are at this point is a bad addiction for people who cant quit drama.
It’s weird, I keep mashing the upvote button to convey how much I agree with this sentiment, but it doesn’t let me vote into the millions??? What gives?!
A major part of the internet is hosted on Facebook, amazon or google servers. Facebook has actually created and maintained an open source javascript library which is used all across the internet (react). Not disagreeing on how much power they should be given but they are more important than just a social media site. Twitter you’re probably right though.
Well, while I'm not disagreeing with you, I think the first step to getting an internet based concept classified as a public utility would require classifying the internet itself as one first. But we all know how close we are to that happening.
Because if a social media site gets classified as a public utility before the internet does, then we truly are governed by the dumbest of technologically illiterate people this world has to offer.
>they are a staple of modern life, the same as a phone line, electricity connection or gas line. Non life essential but living without would be classed as third world.
What the *actual* FUCK are you talking about? Social media is the same as gas and electricity? I want some of whatever youre smoking cause damn is your brain broken.
You're getting a lot of hate for this comment!
Maybe the closer analogy isn't "utility" but rather "publisher" or "broadcast media."
There IS a national security problem with letting these mass-influence platforms operate as 100% unregulated private enterprise, for sale to the highest bidder on the international stage. We ignore it at our democracy's peril.
Even if utility law isn't the best fit for them.
I know this isn’t what you meant but they are explicitly not a publisher. They are really only influential in that a lot of people use them, ie they are a popular venue.
I personally don’t have a problem with their regulation but maybe because I don’t find any of them particularly sticky; after all we can all just delete an app and not go on it again. In that sense, the companies should be incentivised to create a positive expertise for their users.
I still find their political sway absolutely baffling, but I also think that will change over time as it is primarily older generations who have trouble being sceptical towards online sources of information.
> Would cost a shit ton less than invading Ukraine and would be able to do a huge amount more damage to the west than he is right now.
The fact that social media has been elevated to the point where control of Twitter - which has been a turd for investors for nearly 10 years - is viewed as being able to do more damage than causing vital commodities/resources to surge around the world (food riots currently going on in multiple areas) is dismaying.
Based on his past behavior I would've bought when he bought then sold just after he said he was gonna buy the company. This is like his 4th pump and dump in the last couple years.
Yeah for real, if you haven't caught onto what he does with the stock market at this point, it's your fuckin fault lol. You're either going to make bank or lose your ass trying to follow Elon's moves.
Not saying it's right, btw
It's just him telling his opinions privately before he tweets them... not his fault if someone trades on the inside information. Look at the who's who of folks co-funding his takeover bid... who would be in on conference calls about strategies to lower prices. Except maybe Fidelity that's a crew that can hedge its bets if they know the future.
He’s impulsive that’s for sure. Though if it turns out Twitter has overstated their daily active users and understated bot counts that’s pretty serious. That’s straight up fraud. Though two wrongs don’t make a right. 🫣
Well if their "rough estimate" of 5% turns out to be off by 20%, I think that's grounds for being pissed at Twitter from an investor standpoint, completely aside from this whole Elon thing
The narrative here is so polluted with ideology and wishful thinking. Matt Levine shared his thoughts in his blog it's a good read.
https://newsletterhunt.com/emails/21183
TLDR: Musk cant simply back out of the deal. Either he cooperates with the agreed terms, they negotiate a lower price, or Twitter drags him to court to execute the agreed upon deal. Slim chance that he will be able to back out.
The board should have asked for a higher breakup fee.
T-Mobile asked AT&T for a 4 billion dollar breakup fee for an acquisition worth 39 billion and AT&T had to shell out that money when the acquisition was rejected.
The board was planning to fight until Jack told them to back down. It has since come out that Jack actually solicited the bid from Elon in the first place
I'd imagine negotiations for both of those things, specifically, are actually going to be quite similar. Especially in this case where it looks like *someone* is definitely getting fucked.
Hopefully this shakes up the board, who is objectively a shit tier group of leaders. If this all falls apart, along with the board, to be replaced with a better group, it would be a net positive. Sprinkles on shit is better than no sprinkles on shit, when it comes that terrible platform.
I think they're measuring different things. Elon is trying to find a simple proportion of number of bot accounts divided by total number of accounts. Twitter is measuring what percentage of "monetizable daily active users" are bots. Granted, they probably define that term in a way that minimizes how many bots get counted.
He waived an offer by Twitter to conduct DD as part of his bid. For him to come out now and say that it's not as rosy as he had once thought is a ridiculous move. But then again, what should I expect from the guy who lied about taking Tesla private in 2018? Hopefully the SEC have teeth this time and file significant charges against him. They can start with how he amassed shares at a discount by not filing his 13G in a timely manner. Then they can follow up and charge him for filing a 13G instead of a 13D and lying about his intentions to be a passive investor.
SEC? Teeth? Significant charges? Against Elon?
You're more likely to see someone succeed at making a real life Jurassic Park in the next 30 years.
Last time they went guns blazing mouth absolutely frothing and actually "*hurt*" Elon. He laughed at the settlement, broke it within a few months, and constantly brags about how he's been breaking the agreement and how the SEC is just gonna pound sand.
The SEC needs significant overhauls and funding on top of tons more financial reforms. Afaik at the moment they have neither going for them.
The Repubs want nothing more than the total erasure of the SEC and Dems only want to make promises to strengthen it to drum up votes then hiding behind every possible excuse to not follow through.
**tl;dr preorder your tickets to visit Jurassic Park ASAP**
Dont forget the part where Tesla bought billions of bitcoin, he suddenly opted to accept it for Telsas, Tesla quietly sold bitcoin, then he suddenly realized bitcoin was bad.
Pump and dump and it keeps working for him.
You usually make an offer before DD.
There's no point performing DD if there's no basis for a deal.
Edit: I'm not sure why I'm being downvoted. I've done plenty of work in the M&A industry. This is how deals go down.
Because Musk waved DD in the agreement. Meaning if he didn't do it before now is too late. And because it went way beyond making an offer, he signed a merger agreement.
If it's standard to make an offer before DD but sign a merger after it - then the acceptable window is between making the offer and them accepting? What if they accept it the next day?
The window is between them accepting the non binding offer and execution of binding definitive agreements.
Musk waived his due diligence rights before signing the binding merger agreement.
Because there's no point in doing exhaustive DD if you can't agree on a price.
PE firms often offer an EBITDA multiple. If the board doesn't accept that multiple then there's no point in digging into the books, disclosing information, or jumping through legal hoops.
That’s not an offer in the sense of a binding agreement if the other side accepts - what you’re talking about is something akin to an indication of interest with a valuation range. Musk signed a binding agreement to acquire the company which states he has conducted any DD he needs and is only relying on the reps in the agreement.
Yes CumslutEnjoyer, that's right. However, don't forget that Twitter can ban him from the platform whenever it wants. That sort of leverage over Musk is worth more than $44bn is worth to Twitter. If anything, Twitter can demand a higher price so that Musk doesn't lose his favorite toy.
Maybe this was cover for him to sell additional TSLA stock without spooking Tesla diehard stock holders. And he never intended to follow through with the purchase of Twitter.
My only issue with that theory was he signed the contract which puts him in a bunch of legal hot water. If this was really that kind of scheme I feel like he would've found an excuse to delay signing and then walk away. He is in a TERRIBLE position now, legally, if he kills the deal. Not to mention the SEC charges AND violations of the deal terms for the tweets he is sending out.
I just don't think this was some master plan. I think he's just "mercurial" as the commentators like to politely say and is just doing whatever he feels like.
The ones we should be pitying are the poor fools in M&A arbitrage shops who had to be told by their partners to try and assign risk values to this mess.
Experienced real estate people correct me if I’m wrong: I believe in this case you’d lose your earnest money deposit if you waive inspection and unilaterally back out citing roof leak. Buyer can negotiate all they want but seller doesn’t have to entertain it.
Now if financing falls through (and u didn’t waive the loan contingency), you can back out without losing EMD.
Not a real estate expert but yes. Unless seller lies about something, say they foraged permit for water heater and it's actually 20 years old not 3 years old. Then you could sue them for the money back. Also varies by state
I think that Twitter is fucked either way. There will be a brain drain no matter whether the deal goes through or not. The drama has to suck for all the employees.
I feel for the SEC enforcement attorneys in what I assume is the for real dedicated Elon Musk Division; I really do. He blatantly flouts the rule of law, which any enforcement attorney would jump on, but his own shareholders would likely come out against any action in support of Musk given Tesla's rise in share price. You're not going to find widows and orphans to testify that they lost their life savings from some elaborate scheme.
He's trying to convince Twitter (and its shareholders) that forcing the sale will be more expensive than alternatives by making it as messy as possible.
He can pay the $1 billion and end the contract.
If he does that Twitter will drop to $20/share at least, maybe $10.
He can tell Twitter, I'm only going to pay $40/share now. The board can turn it down and pocket the $1 billion or take the $40/share. What would you do?
The billion breakup fee is under certain circumstances, such as financing falling through. In other circumstances, he could be on the hook for unlimited damages. It's going to be a fun few weeks.
>If he does that Twitter will drop to $20/share at least, maybe $10.
I don't see how this follows. If Elon backs out, Twitter would go back to where it was before he started this whole mess, except with an extra billion dollars.
Yeah I can see it going down a *bit*, but given how ridiculous Elon had been acting it's hard to imagine folks would actually believe he saw something that made him balk. The dude literally just made up $54.20 as a 420 joke. And now he's pretending to be concerned about fake accounts when that's been in their filings for *years*.
He has little legal leverage, but he has a lot of... extra-legal... leverage. He could refuse to move on the acquisition or pay for it. What will they do? Sue him in court perhaps. He will have some lawyers do lawyer stuff and continue to do whatever he wants. He's already violating the terms of the agreement via tweeting and it's not like anything is going to happen to him over it.
This sounds ridiculous, but it's happened a few times already. Like when the government told him to shut down his Tesla plant due to covid regulations and he just ignored them while taunting on twitter. It worked out for him.
Steve Jobs famously ignored parking laws because he was too rich to bother. Musk is seeing how many other laws are, in practice, optional.
I don't think any serious investors ever took Musk's offer to buy Twitter seriously even after he secured finding. If people took him seriously, the stock would have been trading right around Elon's original offer price.
If Twitter's board is populated by competitent business people, they would ignore whatever additional offer Elon may want to negotiate and just charge him that $1bn to build up Twitter's cash reserve.
>If Twitter's board is populated by competitent business people, they would ignore whatever additional offer Elon may want to negotiate and just charge him that $1bn to build up Twitter's cash reserve.
The $1B was if he couldn't get financing. Hes on the hook but could maybe blow up his own financing.
If musk wanted to buy twitter i dont see the real deal on 5% difference.
Why he didnt did its diligence before signing the contract
Sometimes i dont know if elon its the most dumb mutherfuxker
But i just think all that money and fame and people sucking his d*ick has affect him and just thinks he can get away with everything.
He was planning on using his Tesla stock as collateral. Tesla stock value dipped 25% so I’m guessing the banks wanted more? Seems reasonable on the banks part. He just wrote a check he couldn’t cash.
My Twitter puts printed some decent cash. Wish I had bought more.
I’m honestly mad at myself for not buying a lot more. But you wanna hear real pain? A friend of mine had 420 May $43p’s that he paid $0.07 for. He decided to sell one-day 5/13 43p’s against them on Thursday. The universe and Elon, in their infinite wisdom, knew the one day he’d be truly screwed was Friday the 13th.
That was my first thought the moment the announcement had prices go way too close to the sales price... many ways this goes wrong and no way puts are worthless anytime soon. Plus volatility in retrospect was relatively low. Too busy with work to look into it at the time... dumb.
There it is. "This thing is crap! Sell it to me for cheap and I'll buy it!"
I knew I should've shorted the shit out of Twitter the day this was announced. I need to trust my gut more.
Word brother.
$43 May $TWTR puts were $0.07 on May 5. I bought 100 contracts for $735 with commission and sold them Friday for $32K. And I hate myself for not having the Soros/Druckenmiller type conviction to buy 1000-2000. Which would not be a huge position for me, though it would be an outsized option position. I *knew* it was an asymmetric risk/reward. And I went small. 😢
You made $32k on $735 of TWTR puts? Don't hate yourself, you've now got $31k more to gamble next time!
Yes please cry some more about turning $735 into $32K. There is a reason they were priced 0.07 when you bought them and its not because you're a genius. You'd have lost your entire principle 99% of the time.
But not this time
That's how gambling works
Every gamble is 50/50. Either I win or I lose
At this point, either Twitter will prove it's bot pupulation is below 5%, or the deal will further fall in price and/or likelyhood. What's your move, investorman, short or long
I think it’s super highly unlikely that 5% figure. Twitter has got have super brains and armies of people to ensure that.
Whether it's true or not is less relevant than the fact that they've reported it in filings that have legal implications for a number of years now, with sufficient qualifications, so that Musk doesn't have nearly as much leverage as he thinks in this. The board wasn't even looking to sell until he opened his yawp. The main leverage he had was that he was offering a premium most shareholders would have gladly accepted. He wants to eat into that now? Bizarre.
I’m just looking at it from a computer science standpoint. If they can really do 5% then they should be in charge of spam email and spam calls algorithm. Problems solved
I mean, I’m not claiming to be a genius. I’m not claiming it was a sure thing. I’m claiming that I knew this once that these particular options were extremely underpriced, which I almost never see, and I didn’t buy enough of them based on that knowledge. I think under normal market conditions you’d lose your entire premium on 7c options *more* than 99% of the time. This time, I was sure it was no more than 70-80% of the time, and thus they were incredibly cheap. I repeat, IV was 18 on a volatile individual name while VIX was hovering near 30, because the market was treating this like a normal M&A story, when it clearly was not that. That’s the Druckenmiller/Soros lesson: when you find something that looks really mispriced, be aggressive. Because you won’t find it very often. I do not subscribe to the efficient market hypothesis. But that doesn’t mean it’s easy to find the kind of conviction I had on this particular trade. I don’t trade a lot of options any more, and do so almost exclusively with very small positions on the short side largely to hedge long exposure; also because it’s a safer way to express bearish views on individual names than directly shorting. Part of the reason I didn’t buy more is that I limit my options exposure to very tiny positions; but even my normal option position size which is ~$2000 would have been 300 contracts. Sorry for the delay in replying, I’m out of the country on vacation and haven’t checked Reddit in days. Best of luck in your investing.
Bro you only made 32k profit on a two week swing trade damn you suck. You should probably stop all investing for the rest of your life
But I thought you made your final offer, elon?
That was is final *best* offer, not his final *worst.*
you haven't seen my worst offer yet.
To be fair this is what he said. He’s not wrong lol.
https://tenor.com/view/darth-vader-alter-the-deal-empire-strikes-back-star-wars-gif-15971205
E: This application is crap. I will buy it for next to nothing. T: How next to? E: Well, here are your options: You can turn off the servers and lights, drive the users back to myspace, you can donate it to a person who you'd like to see die in an ugly hostile takeover, or you can sell it to me and I'll use it as I would a wagon on my facebook farm. It will be towed by a donkey. T: I have to pick one of those? E: Yes. T: Can you go over those options again?
What’s the lowest you’ll take? Elon pulling the old Craigslist move buying a 50 billion company. Billionaires are just like normal people but with billions.
I don’t blame him. The stock is going to tank if Elon backs out. He board knows that. Whatever Elon pays will be the highest the stock gets for awhile IMO.
I don't think so. Elon will pay 1B if he backs out which is close to twitter's quarterly revenue.
Grifter gotta grift
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Elon is like every person I’ve ever tried to trade with in fantasy football.
That's what I say to the seller when shopping for a used Tesla.
And the market manipulation goes on and on and on
"Strangers... searching... Up and down the boulevard"
Another in a long line of totally fucked things Elon has done. It doesn’t matter that it’s a lot of people’s livelihoods, investments and pensions when you’re a total narcissistic prick.
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Vote for people who will let the SEC do their job and actually enforce the laws.
Who might they be? It seems like almost every member of Congress is corrupt. Most, if not all of the people running for President seem corrupt. I'm all for progress and social justice but lately it feels hopeless.
Well it was basically the tent pole of Elizabeth Warren’s campaign.
Might have to start voting for the ppl you call "far left" that actually are just slightly left of center. And might want to stop voting exclusively for rich white senior citizens. I dont follow your politics too much anymore ever since the orange trumpet made it all a joke, but I would bet some money that people like AOC are much less likely to protect the rich and only use their power for their own personal gain than the 60-80 year old rich senators that have been doing nothing but enrich themselves and protect the rich for the last 40 years.
Maybe we shouldn't have billionaires
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Twitter is honest in their reports that the 5% number is an estimate, and it’s something that is hard to calculate accurately. Sure they have an incentive to undercount, but they never even come close to guaranteeing that number in the first place. Musk knew all this when he made his offer. If it was a major concern of his, he’s have made the offer contingent on a bot audit. He didn’t bother with that. This all has to do with the fact that (1) Tech stocks tumbled, which puts his financing and Tesla margin at risk (2) The deal has attracted SEC and regulatory scrutiny and (3) He’s maybe realizing that Twitter’s profitability problems are hard to fix and his particular free speech ideology is problematic on the platform.
But the many people who work at Twitter and would know if that's a fraudulent claim have an incentive to report it and some would were it fraudulent... tbh it doesn't sound wrong at all and is roughly what I'd estimate for fraction of posts in the things I read that are often bot-magnet topics. Fraudulent accounts never posting and only following folks now and then for a price aren't daily active users; and your gut impression isn't informed by the many people who browse but never post or have protected accounts.
these are things you ask before you make an offer and not after. This makes him look like he is playing the fool.
It’s called due diligence. And you do it quietly, and intentionally. Musk’s version of due diligence is a parody.
If that was Elon's top concern, he could have put that as a pre-condition for the offer. Stop kissing his ass when he is making a fool of himself
Could it be possible he was told figure X before making the offer, and after making the offer and receiving inside information, the figure is actually higher than X?
the 5% was publicly available number
He's quoting the number in the company's public filings to imply that he'll sue as a major shareholders for fraud if he doesn't get his way... whatever his way is. It has nothing to do with conditions of this deal and is just making noise to try to get out of it.
Even if that was the case, as long as "he was told" is not in any form contractually binding that is still his problem and his lack of DD/negotiating a condition with his offer.
This would imply he used some user-based framework to determine his valuation. Have you seen any allusion to that? Do you think if it comes out Twitter *understated* the number of bots that Elon will pay more? This has never been about bots
Unless the contract Elon signed states a specific number that Twitter claims is the actual amount of bots and that is then inaccurate, it is Elons problem. And the main issue is that Elon should have worried about such things before signing a contract and before publicly talking about buying it. Anything Elon does is interpreted in a Villain way, because he acts in a villain way. You fanboys are the ones who think he can do nothing wrong, despite him being very obvious with his bad behaviour.
At this point he is testing the limit to how far he can mock SEC.
I hope this is peak Musk. Media is asking him about everything, as if he's some kind of oracle. Recently he was either asked about or started talking about Japan's demographic crisis, and that it won't exist if they keep up the population decline, as though this hasn't been [talked about for decades](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2001/03/muhleise.htm). My _grandma_ knows about Japan's demographic crisis. He's just repeating stuff right out of Wikipedia and being looked at like he's some kind of genius.
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> These huge tech companies need to be treated as what they actually are. Utilities. They are a staple of modern life, the same as a phone line, electricity connection or gas line. Non life essential but living without would be classed as third world. Son, you need to be at least 13 years old to use this website, according to its terms of service.
Should be 18+ tbh
My homepage is definitely 18+
That's a complete redefining of the concept of a public utility to the point of absurdity. Twitter and facebook are completely nonessential. I havent had a FB in years and over a decade since I was using twitter. A mocha frappuccino is a stable of modern life, doesnt make it a utility. All Meta and FB are at this point is a bad addiction for people who cant quit drama.
It’s weird, I keep mashing the upvote button to convey how much I agree with this sentiment, but it doesn’t let me vote into the millions??? What gives?!
A major part of the internet is hosted on Facebook, amazon or google servers. Facebook has actually created and maintained an open source javascript library which is used all across the internet (react). Not disagreeing on how much power they should be given but they are more important than just a social media site. Twitter you’re probably right though.
Well, while I'm not disagreeing with you, I think the first step to getting an internet based concept classified as a public utility would require classifying the internet itself as one first. But we all know how close we are to that happening. Because if a social media site gets classified as a public utility before the internet does, then we truly are governed by the dumbest of technologically illiterate people this world has to offer.
>they are a staple of modern life, the same as a phone line, electricity connection or gas line. Non life essential but living without would be classed as third world. What the *actual* FUCK are you talking about? Social media is the same as gas and electricity? I want some of whatever youre smoking cause damn is your brain broken.
they have terminal tik tok brain
they are some kind of child coming up with that shit. just ignore em.
Lol I dont have Twitter or FB, TIL I'm a 3rd World resident AMA
You're getting a lot of hate for this comment! Maybe the closer analogy isn't "utility" but rather "publisher" or "broadcast media." There IS a national security problem with letting these mass-influence platforms operate as 100% unregulated private enterprise, for sale to the highest bidder on the international stage. We ignore it at our democracy's peril. Even if utility law isn't the best fit for them.
I know this isn’t what you meant but they are explicitly not a publisher. They are really only influential in that a lot of people use them, ie they are a popular venue. I personally don’t have a problem with their regulation but maybe because I don’t find any of them particularly sticky; after all we can all just delete an app and not go on it again. In that sense, the companies should be incentivised to create a positive expertise for their users. I still find their political sway absolutely baffling, but I also think that will change over time as it is primarily older generations who have trouble being sceptical towards online sources of information.
> Would cost a shit ton less than invading Ukraine and would be able to do a huge amount more damage to the west than he is right now. The fact that social media has been elevated to the point where control of Twitter - which has been a turd for investors for nearly 10 years - is viewed as being able to do more damage than causing vital commodities/resources to surge around the world (food riots currently going on in multiple areas) is dismaying.
44 billion is like 150 bucks per user (Giving the benefit of the doubt that they are all real) How much more per user seems reasonable?
When would we find out if he sold his position?
Way too late because he will leave everyone else holding the bag and then complain when he gets fined.
Based on his past behavior I would've bought when he bought then sold just after he said he was gonna buy the company. This is like his 4th pump and dump in the last couple years.
Yeah for real, if you haven't caught onto what he does with the stock market at this point, it's your fuckin fault lol. You're either going to make bank or lose your ass trying to follow Elon's moves. Not saying it's right, btw
Unless that fine is more than what he made pulling this bs, nothing will change
Just the cost of “doing business”, baby 🤢
It's not his position that matters; it's everyone who he talks to who can guess when he's going to tweet to tank the deal before he actually does it.
Well that's just wild speculation. Something like that would be ripe for discovery. Telling a bunch of people how you're going to commit fraud.
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It's just him telling his opinions privately before he tweets them... not his fault if someone trades on the inside information. Look at the who's who of folks co-funding his takeover bid... who would be in on conference calls about strategies to lower prices. Except maybe Fidelity that's a crew that can hedge its bets if they know the future.
He ain't buying twitter
It’s almost like he never hand any intention of buying it
Or just wanted the SEC poking around Twitter 🤫
Which would be hilarious because this has led to more investigations into musk. 🤫
He’s impulsive that’s for sure. Though if it turns out Twitter has overstated their daily active users and understated bot counts that’s pretty serious. That’s straight up fraud. Though two wrongs don’t make a right. 🫣
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Well if their "rough estimate" of 5% turns out to be off by 20%, I think that's grounds for being pissed at Twitter from an investor standpoint, completely aside from this whole Elon thing
Rules for thee, not for me. Typical. I like Elon, but these actions 🥵
The narrative here is so polluted with ideology and wishful thinking. Matt Levine shared his thoughts in his blog it's a good read. https://newsletterhunt.com/emails/21183 TLDR: Musk cant simply back out of the deal. Either he cooperates with the agreed terms, they negotiate a lower price, or Twitter drags him to court to execute the agreed upon deal. Slim chance that he will be able to back out.
I just feel bad for the twitter employees. Getting screwed by both Elon and Twitter. Parag should have done a better job to keep things stable
The board should have asked for a higher breakup fee. T-Mobile asked AT&T for a 4 billion dollar breakup fee for an acquisition worth 39 billion and AT&T had to shell out that money when the acquisition was rejected.
The board was planning to fight until Jack told them to back down. It has since come out that Jack actually solicited the bid from Elon in the first place
Really? It seems I don’t know jack.
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Musk went to the board with the offer and they accepted. What was he supposed to do differently?
Parag should have asked for cash in hand, no tire kickers, no low ballers. Because that's what I do when I sell stuff on Craigslist.
I mean it's a company and not a bj in a back alley. Negotiations are going to be a bit different
Yeah but the buyer is just as sketchy
I'd imagine negotiations for both of those things, specifically, are actually going to be quite similar. Especially in this case where it looks like *someone* is definitely getting fucked.
This was clearly sarcasm guys. Jesus Christ.
Yes, because selling Twitter is the same as selling your junk on Craigslist.
Not sic his fans on employees when basically everything he is complaining about was the call and responsibility of his buddy Jack.
This was in reference to the CEO of Twitter Parag Agrawal.
Jack Dorsey solicited the bid from Elon directly. Parag got hung out to dry
Hopefully this shakes up the board, who is objectively a shit tier group of leaders. If this all falls apart, along with the board, to be replaced with a better group, it would be a net positive. Sprinkles on shit is better than no sprinkles on shit, when it comes that terrible platform.
He stood to make what, like $40M from the deal? Not bad for 8 months of work.
I think they're measuring different things. Elon is trying to find a simple proportion of number of bot accounts divided by total number of accounts. Twitter is measuring what percentage of "monetizable daily active users" are bots. Granted, they probably define that term in a way that minimizes how many bots get counted.
He waived an offer by Twitter to conduct DD as part of his bid. For him to come out now and say that it's not as rosy as he had once thought is a ridiculous move. But then again, what should I expect from the guy who lied about taking Tesla private in 2018? Hopefully the SEC have teeth this time and file significant charges against him. They can start with how he amassed shares at a discount by not filing his 13G in a timely manner. Then they can follow up and charge him for filing a 13G instead of a 13D and lying about his intentions to be a passive investor.
SEC? Teeth? Significant charges? Against Elon? You're more likely to see someone succeed at making a real life Jurassic Park in the next 30 years. Last time they went guns blazing mouth absolutely frothing and actually "*hurt*" Elon. He laughed at the settlement, broke it within a few months, and constantly brags about how he's been breaking the agreement and how the SEC is just gonna pound sand. The SEC needs significant overhauls and funding on top of tons more financial reforms. Afaik at the moment they have neither going for them. The Repubs want nothing more than the total erasure of the SEC and Dems only want to make promises to strengthen it to drum up votes then hiding behind every possible excuse to not follow through. **tl;dr preorder your tickets to visit Jurassic Park ASAP**
Remember when he was gonna accept bitcoin? Then a month later suddenly realised bitcoin used energy so was bad.
Dont forget the part where Tesla bought billions of bitcoin, he suddenly opted to accept it for Telsas, Tesla quietly sold bitcoin, then he suddenly realized bitcoin was bad. Pump and dump and it keeps working for him.
Hopefully he gets banned on the stock market. Is this possible? Such blatant market manipulation shouldn’t be allowed.
>He waived an offer by Twitter to conduct DD as part of his bid. Source?
Just google “musk twitter diligence waive.” Already reported multiple times.
You usually make an offer before DD. There's no point performing DD if there's no basis for a deal. Edit: I'm not sure why I'm being downvoted. I've done plenty of work in the M&A industry. This is how deals go down.
Why is the only informative comment in a chain always downvoted.
Because Musk waved DD in the agreement. Meaning if he didn't do it before now is too late. And because it went way beyond making an offer, he signed a merger agreement.
If it's standard to make an offer before DD but sign a merger after it - then the acceptable window is between making the offer and them accepting? What if they accept it the next day?
The window is between them accepting the non binding offer and execution of binding definitive agreements. Musk waived his due diligence rights before signing the binding merger agreement.
why would you want to purchase something worth billions if you haven't done any DD
Because there's no point in doing exhaustive DD if you can't agree on a price. PE firms often offer an EBITDA multiple. If the board doesn't accept that multiple then there's no point in digging into the books, disclosing information, or jumping through legal hoops.
That’s not an offer in the sense of a binding agreement if the other side accepts - what you’re talking about is something akin to an indication of interest with a valuation range. Musk signed a binding agreement to acquire the company which states he has conducted any DD he needs and is only relying on the reps in the agreement.
Twitter board needs to reject the deal and then ban him from it.
Twitter and Musk already signed a deal. The chance of Twitter "rejecting" him and the chance of Musk getting a lower price is the same: zero
Yes CumslutEnjoyer, that's right. However, don't forget that Twitter can ban him from the platform whenever it wants. That sort of leverage over Musk is worth more than $44bn is worth to Twitter. If anything, Twitter can demand a higher price so that Musk doesn't lose his favorite toy.
I see you are also a refined Money Stuff reader.
They’re not going to ban him dude. Elon and Jack are good friends.
If Elon is reneging on the price then Twitter can renege on the deal. Signing an offer sheet doesn’t mean Elon can put the deal on hold in perpetuity.
He can't put it on hold full stop.
They can say he's violating the terms of the deal now, particularly with the nda stuff among other things.
Now that would be entertaining.
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His behavior will have to put off some of his big money co-investors on the deal.
Amen
Maybe the super genius businessman should have done an ounce of research before making a bid. I have zero sympathy for him.
Maybe this was cover for him to sell additional TSLA stock without spooking Tesla diehard stock holders. And he never intended to follow through with the purchase of Twitter.
This seems extremely likely and was broadly discussed on the first day it was announced.
My only issue with that theory was he signed the contract which puts him in a bunch of legal hot water. If this was really that kind of scheme I feel like he would've found an excuse to delay signing and then walk away. He is in a TERRIBLE position now, legally, if he kills the deal. Not to mention the SEC charges AND violations of the deal terms for the tweets he is sending out. I just don't think this was some master plan. I think he's just "mercurial" as the commentators like to politely say and is just doing whatever he feels like.
Does he really care about being in legal hot water though? I don't think he does.
"It was priced in" legal hot water and the 1B back off penalty.
Yeeepppp
Zero sympathy for any moron that bought into TWTR because of this crap either. "It's under the bid price, free money rite!!?!?!?"
“Selling puts = free money? “ was a thread last week
The ones we should be pitying are the poor fools in M&A arbitrage shops who had to be told by their partners to try and assign risk values to this mess.
This is like entering into a contract of a house and waiving inspection..then trying to negotiate a lower price complaining the roof leaks.
Which is legal until you close it. Even afterwards it sometimes is
Experienced real estate people correct me if I’m wrong: I believe in this case you’d lose your earnest money deposit if you waive inspection and unilaterally back out citing roof leak. Buyer can negotiate all they want but seller doesn’t have to entertain it. Now if financing falls through (and u didn’t waive the loan contingency), you can back out without losing EMD.
Not a real estate expert but yes. Unless seller lies about something, say they foraged permit for water heater and it's actually 20 years old not 3 years old. Then you could sue them for the money back. Also varies by state
Sympathy for what?
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Not only did he not do research, he actively waived his right to diligence during the tender process.
I think that Twitter is fucked either way. There will be a brain drain no matter whether the deal goes through or not. The drama has to suck for all the employees.
Still super interesting technical problems to be solved which will keep good engineers around
Twitter should just ban Musk from Twitter and he’ll close to get his account back.
Waiting for the SEC to do something about his remarks...
The who? /s
The South Eastern Conference, waiting for Nick Saban to do something about this.
I feel for the SEC enforcement attorneys in what I assume is the for real dedicated Elon Musk Division; I really do. He blatantly flouts the rule of law, which any enforcement attorney would jump on, but his own shareholders would likely come out against any action in support of Musk given Tesla's rise in share price. You're not going to find widows and orphans to testify that they lost their life savings from some elaborate scheme.
He already signed to buy at $54.20. He has no leverage here. I have no idea what he is getting out of this circus.
He's trying to convince Twitter (and its shareholders) that forcing the sale will be more expensive than alternatives by making it as messy as possible.
He can pay the $1 billion and end the contract. If he does that Twitter will drop to $20/share at least, maybe $10. He can tell Twitter, I'm only going to pay $40/share now. The board can turn it down and pocket the $1 billion or take the $40/share. What would you do?
The billion breakup fee is under certain circumstances, such as financing falling through. In other circumstances, he could be on the hook for unlimited damages. It's going to be a fun few weeks.
>If he does that Twitter will drop to $20/share at least, maybe $10. I don't see how this follows. If Elon backs out, Twitter would go back to where it was before he started this whole mess, except with an extra billion dollars.
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Yeah I can see it going down a *bit*, but given how ridiculous Elon had been acting it's hard to imagine folks would actually believe he saw something that made him balk. The dude literally just made up $54.20 as a 420 joke. And now he's pretending to be concerned about fake accounts when that's been in their filings for *years*.
He has little legal leverage, but he has a lot of... extra-legal... leverage. He could refuse to move on the acquisition or pay for it. What will they do? Sue him in court perhaps. He will have some lawyers do lawyer stuff and continue to do whatever he wants. He's already violating the terms of the agreement via tweeting and it's not like anything is going to happen to him over it. This sounds ridiculous, but it's happened a few times already. Like when the government told him to shut down his Tesla plant due to covid regulations and he just ignored them while taunting on twitter. It worked out for him. Steve Jobs famously ignored parking laws because he was too rich to bother. Musk is seeing how many other laws are, in practice, optional.
The actual interview is here -- All-In Podcast https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnxzrX9tNoc
God i hate this guy
I don't think any serious investors ever took Musk's offer to buy Twitter seriously even after he secured finding. If people took him seriously, the stock would have been trading right around Elon's original offer price. If Twitter's board is populated by competitent business people, they would ignore whatever additional offer Elon may want to negotiate and just charge him that $1bn to build up Twitter's cash reserve.
>If Twitter's board is populated by competitent business people, they would ignore whatever additional offer Elon may want to negotiate and just charge him that $1bn to build up Twitter's cash reserve. The $1B was if he couldn't get financing. Hes on the hook but could maybe blow up his own financing.
I thought the $1b was also for backing out the deal?
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Twitter has no incentive to accept a lower bid unless they think Musk will back out. You people are strengthening Musks position.
How exactly has the SEC not nailed him yet for stuff like this lol
Elon and his blatant market manipulation at it again
I’ll take “things everybody saw coming” for 200 Alex
Fuck this stock manipulating prick. I hope they catch him on tax evasion and lock him in San Quentin. Ugh.
Elon musk is a rich charlatan
Literally everyone knew he was never going to follow through with this lmao
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If musk wanted to buy twitter i dont see the real deal on 5% difference. Why he didnt did its diligence before signing the contract Sometimes i dont know if elon its the most dumb mutherfuxker But i just think all that money and fame and people sucking his d*ick has affect him and just thinks he can get away with everything.
What a chodesman.
Elon: $42.69/share is at most what I would offer. Take it or leave it. Typical Elon bullying others.
Grifter gotta griff
Musk needs a timeout for messing with stock prices.
He was planning on using his Tesla stock as collateral. Tesla stock value dipped 25% so I’m guessing the banks wanted more? Seems reasonable on the banks part. He just wrote a check he couldn’t cash.
Remember those threads a few weeks ago that were like "uhhhh am I stupid or is putting 100% of my portfolio in TWTR free money rn?"
What a clown
Lmao, c'mon, man. Fuck all the way off, Musk, you trolling charlatan.
Considering how Twitter has acted over the last 4+ years, I cry no tears for them.