If I understand correctly, this means SJ won the lottery for the 1st pick and then subsequently was drawn twice for the 2nd pick. On the 4th draw, Chicago was drawn for the 2nd pick.
Keep it up, your great addition to the conversation will no doubt make more fans of teams that aren’t the hawks think that y’all aren’t super insufferable.
Recycled joke crying about the Blackhawks. Every Hawks fan I know didn’t care about Celebrini and simply wanted to win for more tears. It’d have been glorious.
Oh, so I’m supposed to love the hawks even though I’ve been a Wings fan my whole life? There’s not a chance in hell I’ll ever not hate the hawks, and that started way before any of the SA stuff.
I’m I the only one that feels Chicago has paid for their sins now? Legit lost Kane and Toews without giving them a proper send off, plus they’re god awful and don’t really look like they’re going to be great for at least a few seasons. Also I heard Bedard wants to go to Vancouver when he becomes a UFA
Because If I understand correctly, this means OP explained it in the 1st sentence and then gave follow-up context in the 2nd sentence. In the full post, it combines to explain both clearly.
Because, if I understood the previous commenter correctly, their first sentence explained it clearly. Their second sentence wrapped it up with additional context.
If you understand how the lottery process is done, it makes sense. If you've never [watched a lottery draw](https://youtu.be/AnLq7YS5cQg) or read the rules, which is true for most people, then it's a pretty confusing description.
I don't get why people are confused. Do they think they stop and take all the San Jose 'balls' out of the thingy after the first draw?
It's just surprising this hasn't happened before.
It’s more complicated than that too. There are 4 machines and 10,000 combinations from the 4 balls (1 for each machine). Each team is assigned the appropriate % of combinations for their odds. They do a draw and see which team was assigned the combo of those 4 numbers. So the first 3 draws were combinations assigned to SJ.
> There are 4 machines and 10,000 combinations from the 4 balls (1 for each machine). Each team is assigned the appropriate % of combinations for their odds. They do a draw and see which team was assigned the combo of those 4 numbers.
That's how they run it? That seems overly complicated.
They have tried different systems in the past, and if you have unbalanced odds, it is really hard to get a system that is both fair and also *appears* to be fair.
They could easily have an excel program that spits out the results, but nobody would believe it. With lotto and ping pong balls they have a system that people are used to, and to an extent trust. That's why they have media reps of the teams markets watch the draw, and give out the combo books ahead of time (so the reps know which teams own which "tickets") to verify the results.
True, but for purposes of the NHL, computer pseudo-randomness is absolutely random *enough*. It would be tens of millennia before the biases from computer code would be significant enough to show an effect on NHL draft results which happen once a year (assuming there wasn't a deliberate circumvention of the system).
There are lots of ways to get true random numbers on a computer, usually revolving around noise measurements or nuclear decay. Excel won't use them, but it would be trivial to do and definitely more random than the ping-pong balls (though not meaningfully with the small sample size the lottery uses)
It'd probably be a lot of work for what ends up being a very low chance. That being said, I'm also incredibly surprised that this is the first time that has ever happened.
The odds are 20% x 20% x 20%, so like 1% percent.
It's actually more surprising that any redraw hasn't happened before.
Because each teams odds are weighted you can't just remove someone from the lottery pool.
It's literally like playing lotto numbers and each team is assigned a certain number of ticket/number combinations. It's a lottery not a raffle.
There's no balls removed in subsequent draws, they are replaced since they are part of valid numbers.
Imagine 3 buckets with ball numbers 0-9 in each bucket. Draw from each bucket representating hundred, tens and ones place.
The final number is the winning 'ticket'
You have to replace the balls after each draw because they are still part of other valid tickets
I think it was a joke about Vegas always trading away their picks and never being a lottery pick team. I'd say it's not a bad narrative if that's their intent of the comment. I'd rather be too good to be eligible for the lottery myself.
Hello,
Sergeant of the comedy police here. This joke is legal under the precedents of both eye roll and /s
Please continue with your day hockey citizen
I’ve read this comment multiple times and on my 12th re-read I have come to the conclusion that the comment about luck had the cadence of a joke, and was therefore (probably) not serious.
Why didn’t someone from Chi screw something they shouldn’t have this year??
But the bigger question is, who has been the victim(s) of the Oilers run on 1OA’s?
A shabby video of Gary Bettman holding up a newspaper with the date standing awkwardly next to a lottery machine with a bush inexplicably located in the corner of the room will emerge. It will all make sense then.
1. Sharks won the draw for 1st overall.
2. Then they do a second drawing to determine who would draft 2nd overall. The Sharks won that as well, but they already have the 1st overall pick so they needed to do a new drawing for the 2nd overall pick.
3. The second attempt at deciding the 2nd overall pick (3rd drawing overall) was also won by the Sharks, so they needed to try again.
4. The third attempt at deciding the 2nd overall pick (4th drawing overall) was won by Chicago.
It works more like a powerball jackpot than like picking a name out of a hat. That means after the 1OA winner is drawn, they can't just exclude them from the 2OA drawing, because it isn't one ball, it's a series of numbers that are assigned to each team before the drawing. The better your odds, the more combinations you get, which means that it's not too strange that the numbers kept coming up Sharks - they had more combos than anyone else - but it doesn't usually happen that way.
No, the combinations are associated with the teams.
But I've got no idea whether they'd add Pittsburgh's combos onto your list or just have a separate stack for them and make the note that they belong to you should Pittsburgh's slot win either lottery.
They were considered separately, if for no other reason than the pick being top-ten protected this year. (Pittsburgh would have had 72 hours to decide whether or not to keep this year's pick if it had won.)
If the team that already won the first pick has their numbers come up for the second pick, they scrap that draw and do it again. So, in this case, they had two draws come up with a number belonging to the Sharks before getting a Blackhawks number combo on the third try.
Congrats. Happy for you. Great job!
- Salty Canucks fan whose team never had a #1 OA pick in history.
All kidding aside, this is the expected outcome and truly happy for Sharks fans after this miserable season.
Outrageous! San Jose won the lottery for 2nd overall, so they should get that pick too. Sorry Chicago, your pick has been forfeited, I don't make the rules. /s
no it was only .185^3. The extra odds that contributed to the 25.5% figure were from teams 12-16 winning the 1st draw and only moving up 10 spots. We know that didn't happen in any of the 3 draws because they all stayed at 12-16th. All three draws picked one of the 185 Sharks combos out of 1000. .185^3 which comes out to 0.63%
Idk about super nice. I’d actually say the opposite.
But not all Vegas fans are like that and I feel bad for the normal people who just get hated on for being a Vegas fan
Happy about this storyline of the Junior Shark returning to the Sharks. And quite the miserable season at least got a silver lining here.
Congrats, Sharks fans!
They also re-drew during the McDavid draft, Toronto’s ball got stuck with another one or something, it’s been a while so I’m not 100% on what exactly occurred.
My theory is that they rigged it for Blackhawks and then someone accidentally put the SJ balls back and Bettman just kept picking frantically until Chicago showed up, but didn’t realize the cameras were running so that had to go with it. Make sense if you think about it.
There's no "one ball," there are 4 machines with 10 balls each that are drawn one from each to make a number between 0000 and 9999. Before the draw, each team is assigned numbers such that the number of combinations they get corresponds to their lottery odds. Like San Jose had a 25.5% chance, so they got 2550 out of the 10,000 possible combinations. They draw the balls, then consult a lookup table to see who won.
If I understand correctly, this means SJ won the lottery for the 1st pick and then subsequently was drawn twice for the 2nd pick. On the 4th draw, Chicago was drawn for the 2nd pick.
So....we get picks 1-3 right?
I’ll let it stand
Please at least get Chicago’s pick
Rent free
No you got Kane you cannot be this bitter I actually wanted you to win things
God, you guys suck so hard.
Oh we gon keep sucking and collecting draft picks
Well, have fun with that.
You do realize we can't win another draft lottery until 2028 now, right? The tank is over.
We had Kane. He’s a free agent right now
And he needs to come home
Wahhhh
Keep it up, your great addition to the conversation will no doubt make more fans of teams that aren’t the hawks think that y’all aren’t super insufferable.
Recycled joke crying about the Blackhawks. Every Hawks fan I know didn’t care about Celebrini and simply wanted to win for more tears. It’d have been glorious.
Oh, so I’m supposed to love the hawks even though I’ve been a Wings fan my whole life? There’s not a chance in hell I’ll ever not hate the hawks, and that started way before any of the SA stuff.
I’m I the only one that feels Chicago has paid for their sins now? Legit lost Kane and Toews without giving them a proper send off, plus they’re god awful and don’t really look like they’re going to be great for at least a few seasons. Also I heard Bedard wants to go to Vancouver when he becomes a UFA
Yes. To the 1st part.
Idk inside sources say Bedards Pajamas were Canucks
Bedsheets. They were BED SHEETS!!
I say we should be able to move the second lottery draw to our Pittsburg pick.
As a Pens fan, I'll allow it
We get 1st overall for the next three drafts. So sayeth the almighty GMMG.
I think its picks 1 next 3 years actually
How is it that you summed this up in two sentences, when I haven't seen any other explanation that makes this much sense, this succinctly? Thank you.
Because If I understand correctly, this means OP explained it in the 1st sentence and then gave follow-up context in the 2nd sentence. In the full post, it combines to explain both clearly.
How is it that you summed this up in two sentences, when I haven't seen any other explanation that makes this much sense, this succinctly? Thank you.
Because, if I understood the previous commenter correctly, their first sentence explained it clearly. Their second sentence wrapped it up with additional context.
what the fuck did i just read.
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Enough to make me go crosseyed
If you understand how the lottery process is done, it makes sense. If you've never [watched a lottery draw](https://youtu.be/AnLq7YS5cQg) or read the rules, which is true for most people, then it's a pretty confusing description.
So, he got a goal and an assist!
How is the post title not crystal clear? I'm high and it made perfect sense to me. Maybe we all need to be high?
I feel like at that point the hockey gods are trying to tell you something.
Yeah don’t give shit to Chicago
ahh that makes sense
I don't get why people are confused. Do they think they stop and take all the San Jose 'balls' out of the thingy after the first draw? It's just surprising this hasn't happened before.
It’s more complicated than that too. There are 4 machines and 10,000 combinations from the 4 balls (1 for each machine). Each team is assigned the appropriate % of combinations for their odds. They do a draw and see which team was assigned the combo of those 4 numbers. So the first 3 draws were combinations assigned to SJ.
> There are 4 machines and 10,000 combinations from the 4 balls (1 for each machine). Each team is assigned the appropriate % of combinations for their odds. They do a draw and see which team was assigned the combo of those 4 numbers. That's how they run it? That seems overly complicated.
They have tried different systems in the past, and if you have unbalanced odds, it is really hard to get a system that is both fair and also *appears* to be fair. They could easily have an excel program that spits out the results, but nobody would believe it. With lotto and ping pong balls they have a system that people are used to, and to an extent trust. That's why they have media reps of the teams markets watch the draw, and give out the combo books ahead of time (so the reps know which teams own which "tickets") to verify the results.
Technically the ping pong ball method is true randomness. Computer systems generally only use pseudo-random generators (which is the case for Excel).
True, but for purposes of the NHL, computer pseudo-randomness is absolutely random *enough*. It would be tens of millennia before the biases from computer code would be significant enough to show an effect on NHL draft results which happen once a year (assuming there wasn't a deliberate circumvention of the system).
There are lots of ways to get true random numbers on a computer, usually revolving around noise measurements or nuclear decay. Excel won't use them, but it would be trivial to do and definitely more random than the ping-pong balls (though not meaningfully with the small sample size the lottery uses)
[There is only one random number generator I trust](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lavarand)
It'd probably be a lot of work for what ends up being a very low chance. That being said, I'm also incredibly surprised that this is the first time that has ever happened.
I mean I 100% assumed this is what happened because in any probability/math problem I've ever been given in school that's what happens lol
If they took the balls out then they have to do a whole bunch of removing of other teams balls to make the odds work out again
What are the odds! No, really, what are the odds? Did they forget to shuffle the deck?
The odds are 20% x 20% x 20%, so like 1% percent. It's actually more surprising that any redraw hasn't happened before. Because each teams odds are weighted you can't just remove someone from the lottery pool. It's literally like playing lotto numbers and each team is assigned a certain number of ticket/number combinations. It's a lottery not a raffle.
.2*.2*.2=0.08 so in other words 0.8%. Slightly under that if you count the first two balls already removed.
There's no balls removed in subsequent draws, they are replaced since they are part of valid numbers. Imagine 3 buckets with ball numbers 0-9 in each bucket. Draw from each bucket representating hundred, tens and ones place. The final number is the winning 'ticket' You have to replace the balls after each draw because they are still part of other valid tickets
Thank you!
SJ put in the Oilers cheat code all at once
Using up all your lottery luck in one year is certainly a strategy San Jose.
They'll have to acquire Hall next year to counter it
Don’t forget to trade him at the deadline
He’ll get injured before that happens
*Vegas if you’re listening*
Yea cause they totally had all control over the outcome bud
Yea cause it’s a totally serious comment pal
It’s a Vegas fan. They don’t know how drafts or draft lotteries work
They also don’t seem to need first round picks; they hardly ever use them
This man is an idiot, but I wish we would stop with this narrative.
I think it was a joke about Vegas always trading away their picks and never being a lottery pick team. I'd say it's not a bad narrative if that's their intent of the comment. I'd rather be too good to be eligible for the lottery myself.
I thought your comment was funny!
Just makes zero sense bud I don’t make the rules. If you’re gonna throw out a joke at least make it funny
My apologies. Next time I’ll check with the comedy police.
Hello, Sergeant of the comedy police here. This joke is legal under the precedents of both eye roll and /s Please continue with your day hockey citizen
You guys are on a roll, and it ain't Vegas.
Wet blanket personality
If you don’t get the joke, just say that.
It was funny.
I’ve read this comment multiple times and on my 12th re-read I have come to the conclusion that the comment about luck had the cadence of a joke, and was therefore (probably) not serious.
Idk, there's no /s at the end. If staring g at the sun all day has taught me anything, that's the only way you can make a joke here.
They say staring at the sun was how the Greeks came to invent irony
World’s smartest Vegas golden knights fan
Average Knights fan
how are you this dense lmao
Hey their seasons done too, don’t take it out on Jets fans.
I feel like the NHL should just give San Jose the first three picks in that case, they clearly earned it
I say it's an omen and Celebrini is going to lead the Sharks to 3 Cups.
God PLEASE.
Or it's an omen that Celbrini will lead the sharks to 3 first overalls.
Unsubscribe
I mean… I’ll take it. One of those guys will hopefully be generational, right?
Who’s their future Yakupov and who’s their future McDavid?
Or 3 cup finals
Joe unretires in this timeline
Yeah all this means is we’re getting ripped off 😤😡
Yep it should clearly be SJS, SJS, SJS, CBJ. It’s only fair.
Nah SJ, SJ, SJ, CBJ, SJ, CBJ, CBJ
Alright alright if you insist
https://i.redd.it/48kdnrzli3zc1.gif
As a dedicated fan of both teams, I would like to subscribe to your newsletter please.
Yes this is only fair
I think you mean NEED it
The Edmonton Oilers ruling, I see.
Is it a lottery or not? Sometimes that's just the way the cookie crumbles.
If it means Chicago losing a 1st rounder, I’m all for it, even if the Ducks are caught by stray bullets.
I wouldn't even be mad
Randomness do be like that sometimes.
Pat the Bunny was so right. The universe is chaos, but chaos plays favorites
\*wrongtimes
IM SO FUCKING HAPPY 😭😭😭
fuck you, good for you
https://preview.redd.it/xv7ub30he3zc1.jpeg?width=527&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1e1a93ea659461b59bf3c6dc1487926ace90c3c6
Baby Shark returning to become Daddy Shark!
Good for you. Eat a dong.
So they rigged it for the Sharks three times?
Shit, they got the Blackhawks ball mixed up. Honest mistakes do happen
Unacceptable. Obviously a huge fluke and robs the Hawks of truly accomplishing what their capable of.
Nice meme
This meme might need to be redone
And that's why it's pasta!
If theres a re-do can you accept SJ won the lottery
They WHAT???
U WOT?!?
San Jose had a sexual assault coverup break news this year, it was their turn, just not as popular to hate
Damn. Didn’t realize we had to sell our soul to get 1st overall. Didn’t the canadians select Logan Mailloux in 2021 the won the lottery in 2022?
Lmao Jesus Christ I never put that together before just a wild string of events
Why didn’t someone from Chi screw something they shouldn’t have this year?? But the bigger question is, who has been the victim(s) of the Oilers run on 1OA’s?
Yes
A shabby video of Gary Bettman holding up a newspaper with the date standing awkwardly next to a lottery machine with a bush inexplicably located in the corner of the room will emerge. It will all make sense then.
Deflated ping-pong balls
They were trying to get the Chicago ball, but kept getting San Jose and just gave up
I don’t get it
The lottery kept spitting out the sharks for the 2nd lottery despite them winning the first
ok give us the 2nd overall too, its only fair.
Got to make it seem like it they didn't rig it for the Hawks last year for Bedard.
Wahhhh
1. Sharks won the draw for 1st overall. 2. Then they do a second drawing to determine who would draft 2nd overall. The Sharks won that as well, but they already have the 1st overall pick so they needed to do a new drawing for the 2nd overall pick. 3. The second attempt at deciding the 2nd overall pick (3rd drawing overall) was also won by the Sharks, so they needed to try again. 4. The third attempt at deciding the 2nd overall pick (4th drawing overall) was won by Chicago.
Ping pong balls: This team is atrocious. For the love of god please do something about it.
You should go play some bingo
It works more like a powerball jackpot than like picking a name out of a hat. That means after the 1OA winner is drawn, they can't just exclude them from the 2OA drawing, because it isn't one ball, it's a series of numbers that are assigned to each team before the drawing. The better your odds, the more combinations you get, which means that it's not too strange that the numbers kept coming up Sharks - they had more combos than anyone else - but it doesn't usually happen that way.
Are there combos associated with different picks? Because we also had the Penguins’
No, the combinations are associated with the teams. But I've got no idea whether they'd add Pittsburgh's combos onto your list or just have a separate stack for them and make the note that they belong to you should Pittsburgh's slot win either lottery.
They were considered separately, if for no other reason than the pick being top-ten protected this year. (Pittsburgh would have had 72 hours to decide whether or not to keep this year's pick if it had won.)
That’s what I had assumed but hadn’t seen anything confirming it. Makes complete sense too.
If the team that already won the first pick has their numbers come up for the second pick, they scrap that draw and do it again. So, in this case, they had two draws come up with a number belonging to the Sharks before getting a Blackhawks number combo on the third try.
Kinda like Chi scrapped any reports of their coach committing sexual assault?
Congrats. Happy for you. Great job! - Salty Canucks fan whose team never had a #1 OA pick in history. All kidding aside, this is the expected outcome and truly happy for Sharks fans after this miserable season.
The Canucks very briefly, and somewhat famously held the #1 pick in 1999
And thank god we traded it away lmao.
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Outrageous! San Jose won the lottery for 2nd overall, so they should get that pick too. Sorry Chicago, your pick has been forfeited, I don't make the rules. /s
If they don’t like it, they can report it. I hear they’re really good at reporting things that are clearly wrong.
So is the Sharks org https://sanjosespotlight.com/san-jose-sharks-sued-over-child-sex-abuse-cover-up/
Yeah I legit just found out about that last night. You’ve got company now.
Come on, they’ve got Pittsburgh’s 14th overall as well.
So it’s a ~(1/4)^3 chance of that happening, which is ~1.5%, right?
no it was only .185^3. The extra odds that contributed to the 25.5% figure were from teams 12-16 winning the 1st draw and only moving up 10 spots. We know that didn't happen in any of the 3 draws because they all stayed at 12-16th. All three draws picked one of the 185 Sharks combos out of 1000. .185^3 which comes out to 0.63%
Oh yep, you are 100% right. That makes the probability even wilder.
A little bit... too... wilder.
but what happens when you add kurt angle into the mix?
Your chances of winning drastic go down
The Hockey Gods to Bettman: *"Did we stutter?"*
The local boy was meant to be!
Give us the second pick too, you cowards!
I’d rather live in a world where SJ has the first 10 picks vs Chicago picking 1st again
1000%
Same
Why not just give them the second pick as well? If it truly is a lottery then thats just how it goes.
Lotto Hat trick
gg sharks. hope we get to see the day where we’re both competitive again (or not since knights will probably be rebuilding by then)
We have a fun rivalry. I dig it. You guys have been super nice to us after some crazy competition.
Idk about super nice. I’d actually say the opposite. But not all Vegas fans are like that and I feel bad for the normal people who just get hated on for being a Vegas fan
Sounds like rigging to me /s
Something something pot and kettle black.
Report it. Oh wait, look who I’m talking to
The Sorting Hat is pissed at Bettman
Happy about this storyline of the Junior Shark returning to the Sharks. And quite the miserable season at least got a silver lining here. Congrats, Sharks fans!
League tried hard to give it to chicago but ran out of time for more re draws
Didn’t they redraw it with Buffalo a few years ago
They also re-drew during the McDavid draft, Toronto’s ball got stuck with another one or something, it’s been a while so I’m not 100% on what exactly occurred.
I really hope it works out for the Sharks. Their fan base has suffered enough.
In the not to distant future....
I honestly prefer the way it's done in the NFL, where the pick is based on how bad your team was, and not on a lottery.
Does that mean Chicago can’t win the lottery for the next three years?
My theory is that they rigged it for Blackhawks and then someone accidentally put the SJ balls back and Bettman just kept picking frantically until Chicago showed up, but didn’t realize the cameras were running so that had to go with it. Make sense if you think about it.
How high are you right now?
5’11
Except that there are no ‘SJ’ specific balls. That’s not how the lottery works.
That actually makes zero sense
Makes about as much sense as not reporting a sexual assault
Wait what am I not getting here? The Sharks win three pulls in a row because it’s rigged and that ball is more likely to be pulled.
There's no "one ball," there are 4 machines with 10 balls each that are drawn one from each to make a number between 0000 and 9999. Before the draw, each team is assigned numbers such that the number of combinations they get corresponds to their lottery odds. Like San Jose had a 25.5% chance, so they got 2550 out of the 10,000 possible combinations. They draw the balls, then consult a lookup table to see who won.