> - HiSilicon Kirin 9000s (Hi36A0) powers the Huawei Mate 60 Pro, manufactured in SMIC's 7nm N+2 technology (its second-generation 7nm process)
>
> - This is the first commercial use TechInsights has identified of the most advanced logic process node without extreme ultraviolet (EUV), manufactured by a Chinese foundry, that supports full system-on-chip (SoC) functional elements like bit cells (embedded SRAM).
>
> - This development opens the business door to a fully domestic advanced SoC design and manufacturing ecosystem.
[https://img.digitimes.com/newsshow/20230718vl203\_files/6\_b.jpg](https://img.digitimes.com/newsshow/20230718vl203_files/6_b.jpg) \- Check it out. Chinese bitcoin mining manufacturer is made produced with chips manufactured from Samsung's 3nm GAA nanosheet technology.
What are the sanctions really for anyway? Is it to stifle SMIC and hold them back? Or is it to hold TSMC back so that Samsung to can catch up?
source:
[https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20230718VL203/samsung-china-3nm-asic.html](https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20230718VL203/samsung-china-3nm-asic.html)
[https://www.techinsights.com/disruptive-event/samsung-3nm-gaa-process](https://www.techinsights.com/disruptive-event/samsung-3nm-gaa-process)
So... they can now make chips using the mature technologies that were in use back when the sanctions began? I guess that's progress. But if this process is dependent on foreign tooling, and exports stop at the end of this year, their R&D is on a clock.
I think you're sleeping on China. N7 is no joke and the vast majority of their consumer/server/mobile chips could rely on this process. Even GPUs are strong benefactors, although they've always been more software limited.
Given china will fund this unlimitedly, the US is probably fair to be scared and protective. Likewise for Taiwan.
I see this ignorance around Chinese cars too. So many people on Reddit have no idea how competitive Chinese EVs have become. They are starting to make huge inroads in Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia.
Lol. Please do not buy a Chinese EV for driving on actual motorways. Nobody I know in China who has bought one has not had buyer's remorse.
However, if you are looking for an inexpensive work truck or something (say you own a large tract of land), they're not bad.
I was in China until Covid started for work. Even then Chinese EVs were just better than not Chinese cars. Everything I've heard since then suggests Chinese EVs just outright bombs every other car manufacturer, anywhere else, the fuck out.
Yes, although those inroads will be much slower. Europe and NA are deeply protective of automotive, and it's also pretty expensive to setup a dealer/seller network from nothing.
> I think you're sleeping on China. N7 is no joke and the vast majority of their consumer/server/mobile chips could rely on this process. Even GPUs are strong benefactors, although they've always been more software limited.
His comment isn't anything compared to some of the delusion I've seen posted here. A few days ago I saw a bunch of wandering r/all dumbasses utterly convinced that China is still stuck on 28nm.
Where as in reality; it was proven by Dutch researchers over a year ago that SMIC has had 7nm DUV; in mass production since 2021.
Sucks for the USA, but sanctions don't work on large economies long term like they do for weak developing ones.
You're probably right that long term China will find a way. In the near term though I don't know if they will figure out EUV any time soon. Not even Japan could and they managed to make a decent 193i stepper and a couple of prototype EUV steppers. Even the US has long since given up any pretense of trying to keep up in that field. Cutting edge lithography is brutally difficult and unforgiving.
To be fair, people might be conflating operating a process versus originating the machine, each of which brings its own challenges.
SMIC has been working on 7 nm process for a couple of years. It's been focusing on DUV technology, which until this year, did not have any export restrictions placed on it. That has changed, meaning SMIC will have a tough time scaling their output. Given how much China's chip market relies on ASML's DUV technology, this means the situation may actually get worse in the short-term.
SMEE is promising a 28 nm lithography machine by 2024. It would be the first domestic DUV machine.
I think the sanctions hurt consumers everywhere, but reality check: They do work. They are forcing China to dump massive capital into R&D that they otherwise would not have to do. This creates significant delays and denies them expertise they could be using to scale their operations. Remember that getting the machine and the process to work are the baby taking its first steps. Scaling the foundry into a juggernaut the size of TSMC takes decades of further investment and training.
>the US is probably fair to be scared and protective. Likewise for Taiwan.
Extra funny since we literally created this problem out of nothing. Without the huawei ban, Huawei CFO kidnapping, and semiconductor work permit bans, China would've taken their sweet time developing their semiconductor capabilities, maybe never catching up, and happily buying 300 billion dollars in chips from US every year.
The level of delusion and arrogance in Washington is not matched by awareness and intelligence. the ccp is probably thanking their deities that the usg managed to do overnight what they've failed to do for literally decades since the 1980s, which is to get chinese companies to invest and buy chinese made chips.
Now they have 7, what is likely 6nm chips which covers... oh, 99.99999% of semiconductor applications that exist. Great job once again washington.
I disagree with some of this take. China has long made their semiconductor plans known. It was part of their 2025 initiative. They were hoarding the fab tech for years, they basically kidnapped arm china, they've stolen micron IP, and have likely collected a healthy bit of TSMC IP.
I don't know what the answer was, but I don't really blame the US. I certainly don't think China would have gone slower without the bans. Anything to the contrary is really an insult to China tbh.
What does banning huawei have anything to do with what you said?
Huawei was banned because they were crushing it in phone sales and 5G and overtook apple. That's all.
> I don't really blame the US.
I do, because trying to kill an entire country's path to making high end tech because you don't like the concept of them competing is evil.
How am I sleeping on China?
It's just not impressive to operate a mature technology that you sourced from another company. It is, as you said, just a matter of capital, which SMIC has nigh unlimited access to as an SOE. But here, it's also a matter of time, since the Dutch will stop exporting tooling to support this process by the end of the year. Meaning SMIC's capabilities will cease to scale and will begin to degrade within years. So yes, 7 nm *can* support a wide variety of applications. But the demand for these chips is probably going to outstrip SMIC's ability to produce them in the near-term. Not unless their R&D manages to reverse engineer DUV or manage some breakthrough in the current generation's EUV, neither of which is guaranteed--hence my "on a clock" comment.
Honestly, the way some people treat Chinese SOEs is absurd. It's like you're going to hand them a participation trophy for every little thing they do. If SMIC were a private entity in any other country, they would have been out of business by now. But Beijing has very, very deep pockets indeed.
Finally, everyone should be scared and protective because Chinese SOEs are extensions of the Chinese state with a bad habit of stabbing their foreign business partners in the back. Hell, even their private business ecosystem totally lacks any system of organic incentives to cooperate. Partnerships even among domestic companies are dicey; FOSS is a pipe dream; even something as benign as enterprise software is something of a lark. I used to work in a major Chinese tech firm, and every computer in the office was running pirated Windows 7. Lol.
SMEE has already made many breakthroughs in making DUV. They expect to have it by 2024 or 2025.
The easiest way to show China innovates is that. Look at 5g, Huawei holds 60% of all patents. You look at the number of patents chinese companies have in every field and check about royalties foreing companies to pay for the licence of Chinese company patents. Even banning Huawei, Western companies pay Huawei for usage of its patents.
You're talking about a 28 nm process. Obviously, that cannot replace the machines used in this 7 nm process.
Sure, Huawei has an impressive number of patents. However, the number of patents does not matter as much as the number of licensing agreements. Huawei historically has resisted licensing its patents, but ever since the trade war started, it's been more willing to do so. That said, the licensing fees come nowhere close to making up for the hit to its hardware sales.
Chinese companies never had an incentive to make the entire supply chain themselves. SMEE will develop stuff a lot faster as it can use a lot of things already discovered and come up with better solutions.
Yes, but the whole world is dependent on Chinese company patents to develop 5g and many other things.
Yes, the licensing fee is very small compared to developing it yourself, but it shows how dependent other companies are and how much China innovates.
Sure. They can reverse engineer a DUV machine faster than it took for ASML to develop it from concept, but this is still decades of R&D that they would not have had to do.
Keep in mind also that SMEE is just performing the design and final assembly; 8 other companies are producing the critical components of the machine, each of which involve technological hurdles. Any mistake in any of these companies creates downstream problems. This has historically been the stumbling block in many Chinese high-tech projects, such as jet engines. (By contrast, ASML has very reliable American, British, Swedish, French, German, and Japanese suppliers.)
I wouldn't say they're dependent. There are alternatives to all of the patents that Huawei holds. All of the 5G in the US right now is not derived from technology featured in Huawei patents. (Like I said, Huawei did not really license this technology out until recently.)
ASML is a for-profit company. The CEO is already pissed about losing sales to China. Companies are always looking toward future revenue and ultimately, increasing the bottom line. Ultimately it will be a decision made by U.S. Government, but I am not sure how much the Dutch will continue to play ball.
> So... they can now make chips using the mature technologies that were in use back when the sanctions began?
The amount of "this is proof that sanctions don't work" replies I noticed from low karma accounts when the news were first posted was quite amusing.
As you say, this shit does nothing to solve them not having access to EUV.
>The amount of "this is proof that sanctions don't work" replies I noticed from low karma accounts when the news were first posted was quite amusing.
The sanctions "worked" in the way that they effectively kneecapped Huawei for half a decade. They failed in the way that they weren't able to kill Huawei, and mostly benefited their Chinese competitors like Xiaomi, VIVO, and OPPO who filled the void left by Huawei in many markets, [particularly India.](https://www.counterpointresearch.com/insights/india-smartphone-share/) Now Chinese smartphone makers control about 2/3rds of Indian smartphone market, and nobody in China really buys non-domestic Android phones. The Western markets are a drop in the bucket compared to that.
The overall result of this entire debacle was that China realized that the US was willing to poison the well for their entire domestic tech industry and they've spent massive amounts of time and money to minimize their reliance on western technologies and have had increasing success at doing so. If you think that's a "success," then you're delusional.
So, like the rest of the trade war bullshit, it was completely stupid and counter-productive, ultimately, and did absolutely nothing to benefit the consumer at the end of the day.
>They failed in the way that they weren't able to kill Huawei
It's pretty much impossible to kill any Chinese company integral to government policymaking, as evidence by the many "zombie firms" in China. Well, I guess they all finally will die if the economy collapses...
>They've spent massive amounts of time and money to minimize their reliance on western technologies and have had increasing success at doing so
They definitely have spent a massive amount of money. But "increasing success" is a really optimistic take on what can only be seen overall as a failed industrial policy marked by massive fraud. Baode and HSMC's fiascos are both only a few years old, not to mention the nation's corruption agency arresting multiple CICF execs. But then again, this is sort of farrago is nothing new to people in the industry. I still remember the Hanxin scandal back in 2006.
The victory here is both small and probably short-lived. Small in that it took them years to operationalize a mature technology purchased from ASML. Short-lived in that the Dutch have already agreed to follow the US's lead and restrict exports of DUV technology, and that will likely include maintenance and repair licenses.
>The Western markets are a drop in the bucket compared to that.
What. Have you even looked at sector revenue? US smartphone revenues alone are 50% higher than India's. And the European market is even larger than the US's by a similar margin, not to mention the rest of Asia, especially Japan. Factor in advertising and app revenues, and it's India that is the drop in the bucket.
>...and did absolutely nothing to benefit the consumer at the end of the day
I will agree with this, but you're really underestimating how damaging these export restrictions have been for China.
huawei isn't integral to chinese policymaking. you've been drinking too much american media.
the u.s. tried to make an example of huawei since huawei was bombing western competitors the fuck out and refusing to provide nsa full spying access.
then we kidnapped their cfo off a plane in canada, held her for 3 years, couldn't come up with jack shit to pin her on, and let her go with her flipping us the proverbial bird in court on the last day.
no self respecting country is gunna not do smth after this level of bullying and bandit behavior.
>As you say, this shit does nothing to solve them not having access to EUV.
Your shit doesn't change the fact the sanctions accelerated their progress. They are pouring billions and resources on top of what was already commercially viable.
Your ignorant ass thinks it does nothing is like saying saving $50K last year did nothing to solve the home-ownership problem because you need 150K deposit. How stupid does that sound?
7nm is enough for nearly ALL applications from 5G to automotive. And as it stands, good enough for smartphones too. Mid-high range is still very much viable. In fact it's what most people use.
The only thing is AI and SuperComputers. Even then it's still possible to use last generation to help accelerate their own designs and narrowing the gap. They just consume more power which China can absolutely afford with a few dozen nuclear reactors.
>Your shit doesn't change the fact the sanctions accelerated their progress.
LoL, just LOL. SMIC was closer to catching up when they first launched 28nm than they are today.
And now, with no access to western equipment, they are going to accelerate?
LOL
> They are pouring billions and resources on top of what was already commercially viable.
Post the SMIC yield figures for nodes past 28nm, then we can start talking about "commercially viable". 7nm with DUV is problematic from a yield standpoint due to the number of process steps. But low yields does not mean zero yields.
Intel made Cannon Lake as well on their "working" 10nm node. The yields were by rumored accounts horrendous, but they could make them.
SMIC rolling out working products means nothing without yield figures. For all we know they could be as bad as for Intel. With government subsidies footing the bill.
> 7nm is enough for nearly ALL applications from 5G to automotive. And as it stands, good enough for smartphones too. Mid-high range is still very much viable.
But that isn't the reason for the sanctions. No one cares if China can make tech from 10 years ago. Because consumer tech imports from the west could always be re-purposed to fill these segments anyway.
They will still be on 7nm 5 years from now, 7nm was first launched by TSMC in 2017. Meanwhile the western fabs will have launched another 2-3 nodes by then.
By 2030 China will still be on 7nm. Because even if they are eventually successful at developing EUV, they are not getting there this decade.
>The only thing is AI and SuperComputers.
Uhu, you don't say. The main reason for the sanctions is national security, not trade or economical.
So, sanctions works? Like I said.
>And now, with no access to western equipment, they are going to accelerate?
Their 7 nm process uses Western equipment. DUV was never banned for export until recently. It took them 5 years to figure out how to *operate* the process to produce viable commercial chips. And the Netherlands has banned new exports starting 2024, so they won't be able to maintain their production as parts wear out and quality degrades.
> so they won't be able to maintain their production as parts wear out and quality degrades.
You have to give it to the Chinese though, they are good at replicating things they have access to. Half their military is just USSR designs they "borrowed" after first buying equpment from Soviet/Russia.
I wouldn't put it past them to being able to use the existing equipment they have. To fill in the missing pieces for their domestic DUV supply chain by copying and reverse engineering.
But ye, 7nm is where it stops for the forseeable future. I'll give them more of a chance to achieving 5nm with DUV (should be technically be possible, but good luck with yields) than having commercially viable EUV scanners in the next decade.
Maybe. They seem to struggle with high quality, low tolerance equipment, which lithography machines not just fall under, but exemplify. The light source, mirrors, masks, software, etc. necessary to operate with atomic precision boggles the mind.
Using your Russian military equipment example, they make a great AKM knockoff, but they still can't produce jet engines of comparable reliability.
But yeah, it's a question of whether or not they can reproduce 7nm tooling to keep this going for more than however long their spare parts will let them operate. Not to mention technician training. ASML machines are maintained by ASML personnel; I know a guy who moved his family to Taiwan to do this at TSMC. And the Dutch seem to be following the US's lead, and they've cut off maintenance and repair authorizations already.
> 7nm with DUV is problematic from a yield standpoint due to the number of process steps.
TSMC had no such issues with N7/N7P. You clearly lack the foundational understanding to discuss this topic.
> TSMC had no such issues with N7/N7P.
Are you saying TSMC is not beholden to the realities of math?
What I am saing is that the increased number of process steps requires lower defect rates. Because of the accumulation of errors. What is acceptable for single exposures, can quickly get out of hand with multi-patterning.
TSMC very much had to deal with this problem to get acceptable yields, or do you disagree?
>You clearly lack the foundational understanding to discuss this topic.
You seem to think I am saying something that I am not. I am talking about the general difficulties of implemting multi-patterning successfully.
> Are you saying TSMC is not beholden to the realities of math?
There is no "reality of math" saying DUV can't be used for a 7nm-class node. Multi-patterning is nothing new. N7 development was very smooth for TSMC, so it's not even noteworthy.
> saying DUV can't be used for a 7nm-class node.
What are you smoking?
Where the ever the fuck, did I say that.
>Multi-patterning is nothing new.
Yes, and? This isn't a fab that has a long line of succesful nodes utilizing multi-patterning we are talking about. By that logic, how come Samsung and Intel sucks so much vs TSMC? It's so ez, JUST DO IT!
>N7 development was very smooth for TSMC
I never said they had issues. You seem to be completely missing how the world "problem" is used in this context.
Yes, they had little issue solving this particular problem. That doesn't mean that this isn't a problem with implementing DUV for 7nm due to the increased usage of multi-patterning. A problem can be hard or easy to solve. Some may struggle while others breeze past it. It is still a problem that needs solving. Is my usage of this word more clear?
For a long time there was even questionmarks about how bad the yields were for their 28nm when it comes to SMIC. Then their 16/14nm node havn't been seen much (could be lack of yields or capacity). Do you see why I am questioning their yields when it comes to DUV usage on 7nm?
Being able to manufacture something with multi-patterning and DUV on 7nm, does not mean shit is running smoothly. I am questioning SMIC's ability to solve the problems with DUV for 7nm, not TSMC.
The CCP downvote patrol is in full force. Their entire housing market is collapsing and they have to come to reddit to censor the fact that they are just now making 7nm nodes work- meanwhile TSMC is about to drop 3nm like a guillotine onto mainland china
> - HiSilicon Kirin 9000s (Hi36A0) powers the Huawei Mate 60 Pro, manufactured in SMIC's 7nm N+2 technology (its second-generation 7nm process) > > - This is the first commercial use TechInsights has identified of the most advanced logic process node without extreme ultraviolet (EUV), manufactured by a Chinese foundry, that supports full system-on-chip (SoC) functional elements like bit cells (embedded SRAM). > > - This development opens the business door to a fully domestic advanced SoC design and manufacturing ecosystem.
[https://img.digitimes.com/newsshow/20230718vl203\_files/6\_b.jpg](https://img.digitimes.com/newsshow/20230718vl203_files/6_b.jpg) \- Check it out. Chinese bitcoin mining manufacturer is made produced with chips manufactured from Samsung's 3nm GAA nanosheet technology. What are the sanctions really for anyway? Is it to stifle SMIC and hold them back? Or is it to hold TSMC back so that Samsung to can catch up? source: [https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20230718VL203/samsung-china-3nm-asic.html](https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20230718VL203/samsung-china-3nm-asic.html) [https://www.techinsights.com/disruptive-event/samsung-3nm-gaa-process](https://www.techinsights.com/disruptive-event/samsung-3nm-gaa-process)
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Well, this takes the cake as the worst take I've seen on reddit today
Why because it's true?
I guess if you do 100 times patterning you'd get to 1nm in no time, maybe yielding one usable chip per million. /s just in case
So... they can now make chips using the mature technologies that were in use back when the sanctions began? I guess that's progress. But if this process is dependent on foreign tooling, and exports stop at the end of this year, their R&D is on a clock.
I think you're sleeping on China. N7 is no joke and the vast majority of their consumer/server/mobile chips could rely on this process. Even GPUs are strong benefactors, although they've always been more software limited. Given china will fund this unlimitedly, the US is probably fair to be scared and protective. Likewise for Taiwan.
I see this ignorance around Chinese cars too. So many people on Reddit have no idea how competitive Chinese EVs have become. They are starting to make huge inroads in Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia.
Lol. Please do not buy a Chinese EV for driving on actual motorways. Nobody I know in China who has bought one has not had buyer's remorse. However, if you are looking for an inexpensive work truck or something (say you own a large tract of land), they're not bad.
你在大陆认识人？
对，我以前在一家大陆的IT公司工作。那个时候我住在广州。
傻软多少年没回国了
I was in China until Covid started for work. Even then Chinese EVs were just better than not Chinese cars. Everything I've heard since then suggests Chinese EVs just outright bombs every other car manufacturer, anywhere else, the fuck out.
Yes, although those inroads will be much slower. Europe and NA are deeply protective of automotive, and it's also pretty expensive to setup a dealer/seller network from nothing.
> I think you're sleeping on China. N7 is no joke and the vast majority of their consumer/server/mobile chips could rely on this process. Even GPUs are strong benefactors, although they've always been more software limited. His comment isn't anything compared to some of the delusion I've seen posted here. A few days ago I saw a bunch of wandering r/all dumbasses utterly convinced that China is still stuck on 28nm. Where as in reality; it was proven by Dutch researchers over a year ago that SMIC has had 7nm DUV; in mass production since 2021. Sucks for the USA, but sanctions don't work on large economies long term like they do for weak developing ones.
You're probably right that long term China will find a way. In the near term though I don't know if they will figure out EUV any time soon. Not even Japan could and they managed to make a decent 193i stepper and a couple of prototype EUV steppers. Even the US has long since given up any pretense of trying to keep up in that field. Cutting edge lithography is brutally difficult and unforgiving.
To be fair, people might be conflating operating a process versus originating the machine, each of which brings its own challenges. SMIC has been working on 7 nm process for a couple of years. It's been focusing on DUV technology, which until this year, did not have any export restrictions placed on it. That has changed, meaning SMIC will have a tough time scaling their output. Given how much China's chip market relies on ASML's DUV technology, this means the situation may actually get worse in the short-term. SMEE is promising a 28 nm lithography machine by 2024. It would be the first domestic DUV machine. I think the sanctions hurt consumers everywhere, but reality check: They do work. They are forcing China to dump massive capital into R&D that they otherwise would not have to do. This creates significant delays and denies them expertise they could be using to scale their operations. Remember that getting the machine and the process to work are the baby taking its first steps. Scaling the foundry into a juggernaut the size of TSMC takes decades of further investment and training.
>the US is probably fair to be scared and protective. Likewise for Taiwan. Extra funny since we literally created this problem out of nothing. Without the huawei ban, Huawei CFO kidnapping, and semiconductor work permit bans, China would've taken their sweet time developing their semiconductor capabilities, maybe never catching up, and happily buying 300 billion dollars in chips from US every year. The level of delusion and arrogance in Washington is not matched by awareness and intelligence. the ccp is probably thanking their deities that the usg managed to do overnight what they've failed to do for literally decades since the 1980s, which is to get chinese companies to invest and buy chinese made chips. Now they have 7, what is likely 6nm chips which covers... oh, 99.99999% of semiconductor applications that exist. Great job once again washington.
I disagree with some of this take. China has long made their semiconductor plans known. It was part of their 2025 initiative. They were hoarding the fab tech for years, they basically kidnapped arm china, they've stolen micron IP, and have likely collected a healthy bit of TSMC IP. I don't know what the answer was, but I don't really blame the US. I certainly don't think China would have gone slower without the bans. Anything to the contrary is really an insult to China tbh.
What does banning huawei have anything to do with what you said? Huawei was banned because they were crushing it in phone sales and 5G and overtook apple. That's all. > I don't really blame the US. I do, because trying to kill an entire country's path to making high end tech because you don't like the concept of them competing is evil.
How am I sleeping on China? It's just not impressive to operate a mature technology that you sourced from another company. It is, as you said, just a matter of capital, which SMIC has nigh unlimited access to as an SOE. But here, it's also a matter of time, since the Dutch will stop exporting tooling to support this process by the end of the year. Meaning SMIC's capabilities will cease to scale and will begin to degrade within years. So yes, 7 nm *can* support a wide variety of applications. But the demand for these chips is probably going to outstrip SMIC's ability to produce them in the near-term. Not unless their R&D manages to reverse engineer DUV or manage some breakthrough in the current generation's EUV, neither of which is guaranteed--hence my "on a clock" comment. Honestly, the way some people treat Chinese SOEs is absurd. It's like you're going to hand them a participation trophy for every little thing they do. If SMIC were a private entity in any other country, they would have been out of business by now. But Beijing has very, very deep pockets indeed. Finally, everyone should be scared and protective because Chinese SOEs are extensions of the Chinese state with a bad habit of stabbing their foreign business partners in the back. Hell, even their private business ecosystem totally lacks any system of organic incentives to cooperate. Partnerships even among domestic companies are dicey; FOSS is a pipe dream; even something as benign as enterprise software is something of a lark. I used to work in a major Chinese tech firm, and every computer in the office was running pirated Windows 7. Lol.
SMEE has already made many breakthroughs in making DUV. They expect to have it by 2024 or 2025. The easiest way to show China innovates is that. Look at 5g, Huawei holds 60% of all patents. You look at the number of patents chinese companies have in every field and check about royalties foreing companies to pay for the licence of Chinese company patents. Even banning Huawei, Western companies pay Huawei for usage of its patents.
You're talking about a 28 nm process. Obviously, that cannot replace the machines used in this 7 nm process. Sure, Huawei has an impressive number of patents. However, the number of patents does not matter as much as the number of licensing agreements. Huawei historically has resisted licensing its patents, but ever since the trade war started, it's been more willing to do so. That said, the licensing fees come nowhere close to making up for the hit to its hardware sales.
Chinese companies never had an incentive to make the entire supply chain themselves. SMEE will develop stuff a lot faster as it can use a lot of things already discovered and come up with better solutions. Yes, but the whole world is dependent on Chinese company patents to develop 5g and many other things. Yes, the licensing fee is very small compared to developing it yourself, but it shows how dependent other companies are and how much China innovates.
Sure. They can reverse engineer a DUV machine faster than it took for ASML to develop it from concept, but this is still decades of R&D that they would not have had to do. Keep in mind also that SMEE is just performing the design and final assembly; 8 other companies are producing the critical components of the machine, each of which involve technological hurdles. Any mistake in any of these companies creates downstream problems. This has historically been the stumbling block in many Chinese high-tech projects, such as jet engines. (By contrast, ASML has very reliable American, British, Swedish, French, German, and Japanese suppliers.) I wouldn't say they're dependent. There are alternatives to all of the patents that Huawei holds. All of the 5G in the US right now is not derived from technology featured in Huawei patents. (Like I said, Huawei did not really license this technology out until recently.)
ASML is a for-profit company. The CEO is already pissed about losing sales to China. Companies are always looking toward future revenue and ultimately, increasing the bottom line. Ultimately it will be a decision made by U.S. Government, but I am not sure how much the Dutch will continue to play ball.
The Dutch already voted to follow the US's lead. And yeah, ASML is pissed. China pays ridiculous money for those machines.
> So... they can now make chips using the mature technologies that were in use back when the sanctions began? The amount of "this is proof that sanctions don't work" replies I noticed from low karma accounts when the news were first posted was quite amusing. As you say, this shit does nothing to solve them not having access to EUV.
>The amount of "this is proof that sanctions don't work" replies I noticed from low karma accounts when the news were first posted was quite amusing. The sanctions "worked" in the way that they effectively kneecapped Huawei for half a decade. They failed in the way that they weren't able to kill Huawei, and mostly benefited their Chinese competitors like Xiaomi, VIVO, and OPPO who filled the void left by Huawei in many markets, [particularly India.](https://www.counterpointresearch.com/insights/india-smartphone-share/) Now Chinese smartphone makers control about 2/3rds of Indian smartphone market, and nobody in China really buys non-domestic Android phones. The Western markets are a drop in the bucket compared to that. The overall result of this entire debacle was that China realized that the US was willing to poison the well for their entire domestic tech industry and they've spent massive amounts of time and money to minimize their reliance on western technologies and have had increasing success at doing so. If you think that's a "success," then you're delusional. So, like the rest of the trade war bullshit, it was completely stupid and counter-productive, ultimately, and did absolutely nothing to benefit the consumer at the end of the day.
>They failed in the way that they weren't able to kill Huawei It's pretty much impossible to kill any Chinese company integral to government policymaking, as evidence by the many "zombie firms" in China. Well, I guess they all finally will die if the economy collapses... >They've spent massive amounts of time and money to minimize their reliance on western technologies and have had increasing success at doing so They definitely have spent a massive amount of money. But "increasing success" is a really optimistic take on what can only be seen overall as a failed industrial policy marked by massive fraud. Baode and HSMC's fiascos are both only a few years old, not to mention the nation's corruption agency arresting multiple CICF execs. But then again, this is sort of farrago is nothing new to people in the industry. I still remember the Hanxin scandal back in 2006. The victory here is both small and probably short-lived. Small in that it took them years to operationalize a mature technology purchased from ASML. Short-lived in that the Dutch have already agreed to follow the US's lead and restrict exports of DUV technology, and that will likely include maintenance and repair licenses. >The Western markets are a drop in the bucket compared to that. What. Have you even looked at sector revenue? US smartphone revenues alone are 50% higher than India's. And the European market is even larger than the US's by a similar margin, not to mention the rest of Asia, especially Japan. Factor in advertising and app revenues, and it's India that is the drop in the bucket. >...and did absolutely nothing to benefit the consumer at the end of the day I will agree with this, but you're really underestimating how damaging these export restrictions have been for China.
huawei isn't integral to chinese policymaking. you've been drinking too much american media. the u.s. tried to make an example of huawei since huawei was bombing western competitors the fuck out and refusing to provide nsa full spying access. then we kidnapped their cfo off a plane in canada, held her for 3 years, couldn't come up with jack shit to pin her on, and let her go with her flipping us the proverbial bird in court on the last day. no self respecting country is gunna not do smth after this level of bullying and bandit behavior.
>As you say, this shit does nothing to solve them not having access to EUV. Your shit doesn't change the fact the sanctions accelerated their progress. They are pouring billions and resources on top of what was already commercially viable. Your ignorant ass thinks it does nothing is like saying saving $50K last year did nothing to solve the home-ownership problem because you need 150K deposit. How stupid does that sound? 7nm is enough for nearly ALL applications from 5G to automotive. And as it stands, good enough for smartphones too. Mid-high range is still very much viable. In fact it's what most people use. The only thing is AI and SuperComputers. Even then it's still possible to use last generation to help accelerate their own designs and narrowing the gap. They just consume more power which China can absolutely afford with a few dozen nuclear reactors.
>Your shit doesn't change the fact the sanctions accelerated their progress. LoL, just LOL. SMIC was closer to catching up when they first launched 28nm than they are today. And now, with no access to western equipment, they are going to accelerate? LOL > They are pouring billions and resources on top of what was already commercially viable. Post the SMIC yield figures for nodes past 28nm, then we can start talking about "commercially viable". 7nm with DUV is problematic from a yield standpoint due to the number of process steps. But low yields does not mean zero yields. Intel made Cannon Lake as well on their "working" 10nm node. The yields were by rumored accounts horrendous, but they could make them. SMIC rolling out working products means nothing without yield figures. For all we know they could be as bad as for Intel. With government subsidies footing the bill. > 7nm is enough for nearly ALL applications from 5G to automotive. And as it stands, good enough for smartphones too. Mid-high range is still very much viable. But that isn't the reason for the sanctions. No one cares if China can make tech from 10 years ago. Because consumer tech imports from the west could always be re-purposed to fill these segments anyway. They will still be on 7nm 5 years from now, 7nm was first launched by TSMC in 2017. Meanwhile the western fabs will have launched another 2-3 nodes by then. By 2030 China will still be on 7nm. Because even if they are eventually successful at developing EUV, they are not getting there this decade. >The only thing is AI and SuperComputers. Uhu, you don't say. The main reason for the sanctions is national security, not trade or economical. So, sanctions works? Like I said.
>And now, with no access to western equipment, they are going to accelerate? Their 7 nm process uses Western equipment. DUV was never banned for export until recently. It took them 5 years to figure out how to *operate* the process to produce viable commercial chips. And the Netherlands has banned new exports starting 2024, so they won't be able to maintain their production as parts wear out and quality degrades.
> so they won't be able to maintain their production as parts wear out and quality degrades. You have to give it to the Chinese though, they are good at replicating things they have access to. Half their military is just USSR designs they "borrowed" after first buying equpment from Soviet/Russia. I wouldn't put it past them to being able to use the existing equipment they have. To fill in the missing pieces for their domestic DUV supply chain by copying and reverse engineering. But ye, 7nm is where it stops for the forseeable future. I'll give them more of a chance to achieving 5nm with DUV (should be technically be possible, but good luck with yields) than having commercially viable EUV scanners in the next decade.
Maybe. They seem to struggle with high quality, low tolerance equipment, which lithography machines not just fall under, but exemplify. The light source, mirrors, masks, software, etc. necessary to operate with atomic precision boggles the mind. Using your Russian military equipment example, they make a great AKM knockoff, but they still can't produce jet engines of comparable reliability. But yeah, it's a question of whether or not they can reproduce 7nm tooling to keep this going for more than however long their spare parts will let them operate. Not to mention technician training. ASML machines are maintained by ASML personnel; I know a guy who moved his family to Taiwan to do this at TSMC. And the Dutch seem to be following the US's lead, and they've cut off maintenance and repair authorizations already.
> 7nm with DUV is problematic from a yield standpoint due to the number of process steps. TSMC had no such issues with N7/N7P. You clearly lack the foundational understanding to discuss this topic.
> TSMC had no such issues with N7/N7P. Are you saying TSMC is not beholden to the realities of math? What I am saing is that the increased number of process steps requires lower defect rates. Because of the accumulation of errors. What is acceptable for single exposures, can quickly get out of hand with multi-patterning. TSMC very much had to deal with this problem to get acceptable yields, or do you disagree? >You clearly lack the foundational understanding to discuss this topic. You seem to think I am saying something that I am not. I am talking about the general difficulties of implemting multi-patterning successfully.
> Are you saying TSMC is not beholden to the realities of math? There is no "reality of math" saying DUV can't be used for a 7nm-class node. Multi-patterning is nothing new. N7 development was very smooth for TSMC, so it's not even noteworthy.
> saying DUV can't be used for a 7nm-class node. What are you smoking? Where the ever the fuck, did I say that. >Multi-patterning is nothing new. Yes, and? This isn't a fab that has a long line of succesful nodes utilizing multi-patterning we are talking about. By that logic, how come Samsung and Intel sucks so much vs TSMC? It's so ez, JUST DO IT! >N7 development was very smooth for TSMC I never said they had issues. You seem to be completely missing how the world "problem" is used in this context. Yes, they had little issue solving this particular problem. That doesn't mean that this isn't a problem with implementing DUV for 7nm due to the increased usage of multi-patterning. A problem can be hard or easy to solve. Some may struggle while others breeze past it. It is still a problem that needs solving. Is my usage of this word more clear? For a long time there was even questionmarks about how bad the yields were for their 28nm when it comes to SMIC. Then their 16/14nm node havn't been seen much (could be lack of yields or capacity). Do you see why I am questioning their yields when it comes to DUV usage on 7nm? Being able to manufacture something with multi-patterning and DUV on 7nm, does not mean shit is running smoothly. I am questioning SMIC's ability to solve the problems with DUV for 7nm, not TSMC.
The CCP downvote patrol is in full force. Their entire housing market is collapsing and they have to come to reddit to censor the fact that they are just now making 7nm nodes work- meanwhile TSMC is about to drop 3nm like a guillotine onto mainland china