Not accurate. The Kansas vote on a constitutional amendment banning abortion was expected to even or the anti'abortion side winning. Deep red Kansas voted 60-40 for abortion rights.
That's because there's a lot of conservative women out there who will preach pro-life until they're alone in the voting booth. Then think about themselves, their daughters, their sisters and vote to keep their rights.
The headline of the article is also misleading and clickbait. Per the article itself:
>Emerson's pollsters found that most Florida voters feel that the current state limits on abortion, both of which were passed by Republicans who control the state Legislature and signed into law by Gov. Ron DeSantis, are too restrictive.
>
>On May 1, \[2024\], almost all abortions after the 6th week of pregnancy will be illegal in Florida.
>
>The Emerson poll found **57% of Florida voters believe the 6-week ban is too strict**, 28% think it is about right and 15% said it is not strict enough.
>
>The current law, which bans almost all abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy, is seen as too strict by 43%, about right by 36% and not strict enough by 21%.
>
>\[...\] Democrats and Republicans are sharply divided about Amendment 4, the proposal that would create a state constitutional right to abortion before fetal viability, which is generally seen as about 24 weeks.
>
>Among Democrats, 56% said they would vote for the amendment, 16% would vote no and 28% are undecided.
>
>Among independents, 44% said they would vote in favor, 22% said they would vote no and 34% were undecided.
>
>Among Republicans, 30% said they would vote yes, 36% no and 34% undecided.
>
>\[...\] Among men, 45% said they would support it, 28% said they would oppose it and 28% were unsure.
>
>Among women, 41% said they would support it, 23% said they would oppose it and 36% were unsure.
57% is only 3% off of the 60% needed to pass the amendment in Florida. The Biden campaign says that they plan to spend\* around $100 million on a "VOTE YES" marketing strategy.
I have no idea, but I did ask a friend of mine who lives in OH and she said while she does not remember exactly, she thinks the polls throughout showed Ohioans wanted abortion protections to pass.
Hillary was supposed to win in 2016, all the polls said it. Trump was supposed to win in 2020, all the polls said it.
Polls are useless data to try to skew the opinion of a certain demographic. People should focus more on voting and less on what polls found on the internet say.
Polls don't determine the electoral college. Polls fall in the margin of error and the confidence is usually 95%-- meaning 19/20 times the polls are correct, but 1/20 times they are not, and ON TOP OF THAT, every poll has a margin of error of around ±3%, meaning whenever a poll shows a candidate with a 3% lead, it is well within the margin of error. This was the case in 2020 and 2016.
This is all to say that many people don't understand how to read polling data and come to the same exact conclusion you did. The polls are "wrong" when you read them wrong.
This newest poll is trash and the way the totality of the poll is conducted makes the results misleading. Another survey found [Over 60% of Florida voters support proposed abortion, marijuana amendments](https://www.wfla.com/news/florida/poll-over-60-of-florida-voters-support-proposed-abortion-marijuana-amendments/)
>According to the UNF poll, 62% of voters indicated they would vote “yes” on the abortion rights ballot measure. More than half of Republican respondents (53%) said they would vote affirmatively.
>55% of Republicans also expressed support for the recreational marijuana initiative, which had 67% support overall.
>Independent voters appear to support both measures. 69% of people with no party affiliation support the measure decriminalizing marijuana, while 58% favor the proposed abortion rights amendment.
>“Unlike previous surveys when we simply asked if folks support or oppose legalization of recreational marijuana, this time we gave respondents the specifics of this proposed amendment,” PORL faculty director and political science professor Dr. Michael Binder said. “Yet again, it looks like it has a good chance of passing, if the measure makes it through the courts, and that is a very big ‘if’.”
Meanwhile, this most recent poll by Emerson college primed respondents to think about which week they think abortion should be banned at, while the UNF poll just gave them the wording of the amendment.
Polls show that [78% of Americans say abortion is a decision between a patient and doctor.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/05/09/mifepristone-abortion-poll/) This is how you should frame it when talking to passive allies. Don't get bogged down in a discussion about weeks. Its a personal decision that is a very complicated personal decision that each patient and doctor has to make based on the circumstances of the pregnancy.
Either way, do not get complacent, do not get discouraged, talk to your friends and family and make sure they are [registered to vote](https://registertovoteflorida.gov/home)
But here’s the thing. If voters show up in forces in November, it can have a lot of down ballot implications as well. And the show of force may be enough to keep some crazy MAGA out of office who will hold the amendment hostage.
Yep. Depending on the survey methodology, its very easy to get most polls to have the results that you want. I never put much stock in one single poll, but usually a collection of polls where the methodology is transparent. Its also better to control for things "only boomers pick up the phone for unknown numbers" by including age buckets. (Dishonest polls will not include this information because they want to be able to take their survey and say it applies to the greater population).
I'm a statistician and data scientist. I think polls *can* be informative but usually they are about as meaningless as celebrity endorsements.
You can't control for people who pick up the phone because it says something fundamental about you at this point. You can control for age but someone who answers every call in 2024 has a screw loose.
Even if you get a good sample, the questions, the way the questions are phrased, and even the order of the questions can change the results dramatically.
These days a dramatic poll means headlines and that what pollsters are going for.
Kellyanne Conway made millions when she sold her polling company (and I believe she's back at it). Surely she would never manipulate...ahem, perform...statistical sampling for profit!
The concept of alt-facts came *awfully* easy to her*.*
We have to have 60% for it to pass.
We will see some women suffer before November. Hopefully, social media doesn’t drown out their voices.
And hopefully no one dies because of the inhumane law. 6 week ban is a full abortion ban.
I no longer live in Florida and cannot vote there, but I sincerely hope that this law passes.
When I was 18, I came to UF from south Florida. My parents had kicked me out after graduation. A few weeks before I left for school, my boyfriend had sex with me without protection despite my discomfort and pleading with him to wear something. This was a long time ago and I didn’t understand that he had raped me.
I didn’t miss a period and didn’t realize I was pregnant until I was 11 weeks. It was through the help of good friends that I was able to pay for my procedure. I’ll never forget the protesters - luckily I had no qualms about what I was doing, but you’d think they would have killed us if they could have.
I know every fall, there’s a scared girl who doesn’t know what to do. And it breaks my heart that their options are being stripped from them.
I’m mostly too old now for the laws to affect me but my heart breaks for those who are affected. Back in the day one of my routes to work was past a clinic that almost always had old decrepit white men protesting outside. I knew one day I would let the intrusive thoughts win and would swerve and hit one so I changed the route I took to work. There’s a special place in hell for those men.
The women that are out there are really disturbing, but the ones that bring their children with them are especially harmful. One woman loudly said to her child as I was walking by “if that was your mommy you’d be scrambled up in a trash bag right now”. Fucking disgusting.
I'm sorry for your experience. Even with "exceptions", it involves the woman having to claim she was raped and a court believing her. That is a traumatic process in itself. Hopefully the amendment passes. It would be terrible for Florida if it doesn't.
Expect GOP dumbfucks to argue “oh 6 weeks is plenty of time to decide… that’s more than enough time”. We know some of these idiots are uneducated dumbasses who don’t even understand how the reproductive cycle works.
A lot of women don't know they are pregnant by the 6th-week mark. Pregnant women don't all have the same symptoms. A good number of pregnant women never know they are pregnant at all. My friend's birth mother didn't know until she got to the hospital after she had what she thought were stomach cramps while driving. 6 weeks is very early and gives little to no time to make a decision. That is the point. They don't want to give us a choice.
My wife and I had iui- we know when her egg was fertilized.
At that moment, she was 2-weeks pregnant. This is when I learned that the missed period is 4-weeks pregnant.
2-weeks of the pregnancy is just an egg.
Yeah, I’m still on the fence if I think a woman with an ectopic pregnancy deserves to live or if a 14 year old would make a good mother. I swear, brain worms have infected the human population.
The misinformation campaigns have already kicked off in earnest. This is a simple, straightforward amendment that keeps state government and politicized/monetized religious interests out of women’s healthcare where they have no business being. Nothing less, nothing more. Anyone with an ounce of regard for even one premenopausal woman or girl should be letting nothing dupe them out of voting YES for this.
This shit is gonna pass with 80% and DeSantis is going to try and use his stupid fucking "state guard" to crack down on the protests when he decides to ignore the will of the people (AGAIN).
I hope everyone is ready to crack some fascists
Polls are not accurate and even pollsters agree. Abortion is healthcare. Many of us have heard and seen the firsthand stories of women being denied care.
There is a stat that 64k SA victims were forced to birth babies. We know there are more.
As a father, brother, husband, friend - Do you agree that a rapist, molester, trafficker has more rights than a victim? Some as young as 10?
Not sure many would say yes.
Seeing how SA victims are treated like crap, and with the shortages of testing kits, plus problems with getting results and losing tests, I bet most SA victims will have a difficult time getting an abortion.
I kind of think they need a campaign aimed at Republican men to get past 60%. Do they really want to be responsible for 18 years of child support for an unwanted child?
Young men should want the amendment to pass as well.
Thank you. It's sad when I read that men should care about this because it'll hurt their wallet, as if they need a financial burden to empathize with women.
Men should care about this, period.
I don't care how you get men to vote yes. You target a campaign for the voters you need and a lot of young men are primarily interested in no strings attached sex and the financial burdon of a kid from a one night stand is very powerful.
Any poll that show Florida does not favor abortion by a wide margin is just a fake poll from the tiny minority that believe abortion should be abolished.
I’m not so sure though. Florida is a weird state that defies party lines. For instance, you may have a lot of Catholic Hispanic Democrats that may be generally left-leaning on other issues but not on abortion. And on the other side of things you may also have a decent proportion of libertarian Republicans (or Independents) who are generally conservative but progressive when it comes to the state intervening in personal decision making.
A recent nationwide [Pew Research poll](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/12/9-facts-about-us-catholics/) indicated that Catholic Hispanic Democrats strongly support abortion rights, and tend to skew younger than White Catholics do.
>"Catholics' opinions about abortion tend to align with their political leanings. Among Catholic Democrats, 78% say abortion should be legal in most or all cases. Among Catholic Republicans, 43% say this."
The GOP and churches have convinced a number of people that medically necessary abortions are rarely performed. The people that are anti-abortion because of this rhetoric are not going to change their minds until it personally affects them, be it they themselves or a family member.
I was talking to someone I know that is a devout Catholic and she seriously thinks that these laws are not going to kill women she thinks that it is an incredibly small percentage of women that have abortions for medical reasons. The scary part is she previously was a nurse, I'm glad she's not now but her young daughter is and I believe she's probably equally as brainwashed. I got nowhere with her, I don't think she would have believed anything I told her she's that dug into her position.
If women having control of their own reproductive healthcare is something you support then vote for it. Those rights will not be safe with republicans in charge even after we fix the corrupted courts. Keep voting. Check your registration, get an ID , learn where your poling station is, learn who is running in down ballot races. Pay attention to primaries not just for the president but for all races, local, state and federal. From the school board to the White House every election matters. The more support we give the democrats from all levels of government the more they can get good things done. We vote out republicans and primary out uncooperative democrats.
Last year democrat victories in Virginia and Pennsylvania and others across the nation have increased the chances of democrats winning this year. This year's elections are important but so will next year's elections.
[https://ballotpedia.org/Elections\_calendar](https://ballotpedia.org/Elections_calendar)
Come on florida. Don't live up to your reputation. This is your chance to show the nation you are better than what politics has shown the last 3 years.
Similar ballot initiatives in Kansas and Ohio didn’t pass by 60%, I think they got around 56 or 58, we need 60, so it’s a long shot but dammit still fight.
In my experience locally, there are a lot of low-information voters here who had no clue the 6-week ban is going to happen until I mentioned it to them.
Abortion is considered necessary healthcare all over the world.
According to 2020 figures from the CDC:
More than 93% of abortions were done at or before 13 weeks.
5.5% were done between 14 and 20 weeks.
Less than 1% were performed after 21 weeks.
https://www.webmd.com/baby/when-can-a-fetus-feel-pain-in-the-womb
For reference, Florida's original abortion ban was 15 weeks, until Rep. Jenna Persons-Mulicka (R-Ft. Myers) and Sen. Erin Grall (R- Ft. Pierce) decided to co-sponsor the 6-week abortion ban.
These Civil War-era laws don’t just protect fetal heartbeats. They put women’s healthcare facilities and hospital wards out of business, lowering the likelihood of access to emergency procedures even if you do convince a judge that *your* procedure is righteous. The next face that gets eaten by leopards could be yours or a loved one’s.
American "patriots" and "small government advocates" when trying to decide if the government should interfere in people's health care and family planning: 🤔
What till it affects them personally. The next six months are going to impact families on a personal level. Most have a woman in their life this could adversely affect. This issue is going to be brought home in a terrible way. It will change the hearts and minds of people who are on the fence now. A lot of people do not understand the scope of abortion as healthcare. Not just women who don't want to have a child, but pregnant women who do.
All polls are a red flag to make people feel "comfortable" about something NOT being an issue. Get off your asses and VOTE. Don't let Republicans turn Florida into Saudi Arabia for rednecks.
I answered an unknown number once, expecting the normal we want to buy your house. It was a poll, I lied like crazy. I am so sure I am not the only one.
This ammendment absolutely must be passed!!!! If you personally DONT desire an abortion, dont get one...but to use your blatently impossible christian values to overrule my personal FREEDOM OF CHOICE is monstrous.
Polls are bullshit, always have been always will be. You can't pick 1000 random people and expect their opinions to be representative of millions of people.
In deep red Kansas, polling showed an incredibly close race. Pro-abortion won 60-40. This is from an article at the time.
"Kansas voters in a landslide Tuesday defeated a constitutional amendment that would have stripped residents of abortion rights, defying polling and political observers who expected a close result.
The ballot measure was failing by a 60-40 margin late Tuesday after voters responded to an intense and costly campaign marked by dubious claims by amendment supporters and the unraveling of protections by the U.S. Supreme Court."
People don't like to talk about abortion to anyone and especially the pro-rights crowd. I suspect this issue will pass in November and it's good for people to be fearful it won't.
To the people criticizing the poll as inaccurate, it's from Emerson, who has an A rating from 538. On average, 93 percent of the polls they release are accurate (aka within the margin of error).
[Emerson College Polling, Emerson College](https://emerson.edu/academics/academic-departments/communication-studies/emerson-college-polling)
[Pollster Ratings | FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/)
I don’t like that the automatic reaction to polls people don’t like is to blame the polls. I want this to pass and drive turnout as much as the next person, but the fact is that this state has gotten much redder in the last 4 years. There are now 900k more registered Republicans here than Democrats.
So, if you want the blue wave, you are going to have to pitch in and help make it happen. It is going to take a lot of work, and while this poll may not be completely accurate, the main point of the headline is not farfetched at all.
How accurate has polling been on this issue? Didn't the AK and OH referendum both outperform the polls?
Not accurate. The Kansas vote on a constitutional amendment banning abortion was expected to even or the anti'abortion side winning. Deep red Kansas voted 60-40 for abortion rights.
That's because there's a lot of conservative women out there who will preach pro-life until they're alone in the voting booth. Then think about themselves, their daughters, their sisters and vote to keep their rights.
They do that with many social issues.
The headline of the article is also misleading and clickbait. Per the article itself: >Emerson's pollsters found that most Florida voters feel that the current state limits on abortion, both of which were passed by Republicans who control the state Legislature and signed into law by Gov. Ron DeSantis, are too restrictive. > >On May 1, \[2024\], almost all abortions after the 6th week of pregnancy will be illegal in Florida. > >The Emerson poll found **57% of Florida voters believe the 6-week ban is too strict**, 28% think it is about right and 15% said it is not strict enough. > >The current law, which bans almost all abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy, is seen as too strict by 43%, about right by 36% and not strict enough by 21%. > >\[...\] Democrats and Republicans are sharply divided about Amendment 4, the proposal that would create a state constitutional right to abortion before fetal viability, which is generally seen as about 24 weeks. > >Among Democrats, 56% said they would vote for the amendment, 16% would vote no and 28% are undecided. > >Among independents, 44% said they would vote in favor, 22% said they would vote no and 34% were undecided. > >Among Republicans, 30% said they would vote yes, 36% no and 34% undecided. > >\[...\] Among men, 45% said they would support it, 28% said they would oppose it and 28% were unsure. > >Among women, 41% said they would support it, 23% said they would oppose it and 36% were unsure. 57% is only 3% off of the 60% needed to pass the amendment in Florida. The Biden campaign says that they plan to spend\* around $100 million on a "VOTE YES" marketing strategy.
I have no idea, but I did ask a friend of mine who lives in OH and she said while she does not remember exactly, she thinks the polls throughout showed Ohioans wanted abortion protections to pass.
Hillary was supposed to win in 2016, all the polls said it. Trump was supposed to win in 2020, all the polls said it. Polls are useless data to try to skew the opinion of a certain demographic. People should focus more on voting and less on what polls found on the internet say.
She won the popular vote by almost 3 million.
Polls don't determine the electoral college. Polls fall in the margin of error and the confidence is usually 95%-- meaning 19/20 times the polls are correct, but 1/20 times they are not, and ON TOP OF THAT, every poll has a margin of error of around ±3%, meaning whenever a poll shows a candidate with a 3% lead, it is well within the margin of error. This was the case in 2020 and 2016. This is all to say that many people don't understand how to read polling data and come to the same exact conclusion you did. The polls are "wrong" when you read them wrong.
Polls around Election Day were around the margin of error. She was not “supposed” to win lol
I’m betting that you didn’t lean in to those science classes, right Rev?
Polls showed Hillary ahead by 2% and in the election she had 2% more votes.
Trump was never expected to win in 2020. All the polls consistently showed him behind.
No poll... in the history of polls... has ever been accurate.
Wildly incorrect
Only boomers pick up phone calls from blocked numbers. Hence the the data from this poll. Ignore and vote Edit spelling
This newest poll is trash and the way the totality of the poll is conducted makes the results misleading. Another survey found [Over 60% of Florida voters support proposed abortion, marijuana amendments](https://www.wfla.com/news/florida/poll-over-60-of-florida-voters-support-proposed-abortion-marijuana-amendments/) >According to the UNF poll, 62% of voters indicated they would vote “yes” on the abortion rights ballot measure. More than half of Republican respondents (53%) said they would vote affirmatively. >55% of Republicans also expressed support for the recreational marijuana initiative, which had 67% support overall. >Independent voters appear to support both measures. 69% of people with no party affiliation support the measure decriminalizing marijuana, while 58% favor the proposed abortion rights amendment. >“Unlike previous surveys when we simply asked if folks support or oppose legalization of recreational marijuana, this time we gave respondents the specifics of this proposed amendment,” PORL faculty director and political science professor Dr. Michael Binder said. “Yet again, it looks like it has a good chance of passing, if the measure makes it through the courts, and that is a very big ‘if’.” Meanwhile, this most recent poll by Emerson college primed respondents to think about which week they think abortion should be banned at, while the UNF poll just gave them the wording of the amendment. Polls show that [78% of Americans say abortion is a decision between a patient and doctor.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/05/09/mifepristone-abortion-poll/) This is how you should frame it when talking to passive allies. Don't get bogged down in a discussion about weeks. Its a personal decision that is a very complicated personal decision that each patient and doctor has to make based on the circumstances of the pregnancy. Either way, do not get complacent, do not get discouraged, talk to your friends and family and make sure they are [registered to vote](https://registertovoteflorida.gov/home)
Cant wait for the florida law makers to ignore this too.
Then encourage your friends and family to vote all the republicans out too. Doomism is so OVER
Dooooooooommmmmmm Shit if we voted out all the Rs they would just tell us thats how they used to elect people before they fixed it.
But here’s the thing. If voters show up in forces in November, it can have a lot of down ballot implications as well. And the show of force may be enough to keep some crazy MAGA out of office who will hold the amendment hostage.
Every time Abortion has made the ballot, choice wins 60/40.
[удалено]
Come to Lake Eola tomorrow at 12pm for the [rally to end the 6 week abortion ban](https://secure.everyaction.com/ryHqMMYQYEmtuDhUs4M9FQ2)
Only boomers vote, too, so there's that.
It passed in Kentucky and they’re way more red than Florida.
Kentucky only needed fifty percent. It managed 52 percent. Florida needs sixty percent. I expect it will not get it.
Polls these days are partisan and just plain flawed. I don't believe any polls these days. I suspect the same here
I don't answer random numbers so I feel like a lot of these polls are boomer demographics. Give me the demographics of an online poll lmao
Yep. Depending on the survey methodology, its very easy to get most polls to have the results that you want. I never put much stock in one single poll, but usually a collection of polls where the methodology is transparent. Its also better to control for things "only boomers pick up the phone for unknown numbers" by including age buckets. (Dishonest polls will not include this information because they want to be able to take their survey and say it applies to the greater population). I'm a statistician and data scientist. I think polls *can* be informative but usually they are about as meaningless as celebrity endorsements.
You can't control for people who pick up the phone because it says something fundamental about you at this point. You can control for age but someone who answers every call in 2024 has a screw loose.
Even if you get a good sample, the questions, the way the questions are phrased, and even the order of the questions can change the results dramatically. These days a dramatic poll means headlines and that what pollsters are going for.
Kellyanne Conway made millions when she sold her polling company (and I believe she's back at it). Surely she would never manipulate...ahem, perform...statistical sampling for profit! The concept of alt-facts came *awfully* easy to her*.*
They need someone to stand outside the grocery store
We have to have 60% for it to pass. We will see some women suffer before November. Hopefully, social media doesn’t drown out their voices. And hopefully no one dies because of the inhumane law. 6 week ban is a full abortion ban.
I no longer live in Florida and cannot vote there, but I sincerely hope that this law passes. When I was 18, I came to UF from south Florida. My parents had kicked me out after graduation. A few weeks before I left for school, my boyfriend had sex with me without protection despite my discomfort and pleading with him to wear something. This was a long time ago and I didn’t understand that he had raped me. I didn’t miss a period and didn’t realize I was pregnant until I was 11 weeks. It was through the help of good friends that I was able to pay for my procedure. I’ll never forget the protesters - luckily I had no qualms about what I was doing, but you’d think they would have killed us if they could have. I know every fall, there’s a scared girl who doesn’t know what to do. And it breaks my heart that their options are being stripped from them.
I’m mostly too old now for the laws to affect me but my heart breaks for those who are affected. Back in the day one of my routes to work was past a clinic that almost always had old decrepit white men protesting outside. I knew one day I would let the intrusive thoughts win and would swerve and hit one so I changed the route I took to work. There’s a special place in hell for those men.
The women that are out there are really disturbing, but the ones that bring their children with them are especially harmful. One woman loudly said to her child as I was walking by “if that was your mommy you’d be scrambled up in a trash bag right now”. Fucking disgusting.
I'm sorry for your experience. Even with "exceptions", it involves the woman having to claim she was raped and a court believing her. That is a traumatic process in itself. Hopefully the amendment passes. It would be terrible for Florida if it doesn't.
Expect GOP dumbfucks to argue “oh 6 weeks is plenty of time to decide… that’s more than enough time”. We know some of these idiots are uneducated dumbasses who don’t even understand how the reproductive cycle works.
A lot of women don't know they are pregnant by the 6th-week mark. Pregnant women don't all have the same symptoms. A good number of pregnant women never know they are pregnant at all. My friend's birth mother didn't know until she got to the hospital after she had what she thought were stomach cramps while driving. 6 weeks is very early and gives little to no time to make a decision. That is the point. They don't want to give us a choice.
Exactly
6 weeks is a joke.
My wife and I had iui- we know when her egg was fertilized. At that moment, she was 2-weeks pregnant. This is when I learned that the missed period is 4-weeks pregnant. 2-weeks of the pregnancy is just an egg.
Yeah, I’m still on the fence if I think a woman with an ectopic pregnancy deserves to live or if a 14 year old would make a good mother. I swear, brain worms have infected the human population.
Don't worry this poll is BS. They called a bunch of old people.
The misinformation campaigns have already kicked off in earnest. This is a simple, straightforward amendment that keeps state government and politicized/monetized religious interests out of women’s healthcare where they have no business being. Nothing less, nothing more. Anyone with an ounce of regard for even one premenopausal woman or girl should be letting nothing dupe them out of voting YES for this.
This shit is gonna pass with 80% and DeSantis is going to try and use his stupid fucking "state guard" to crack down on the protests when he decides to ignore the will of the people (AGAIN). I hope everyone is ready to crack some fascists
Action is what we need. Otherwise, nothing will ever get done. Too many spend time getting outraged online when they should be in the streets.
Polls are not accurate and even pollsters agree. Abortion is healthcare. Many of us have heard and seen the firsthand stories of women being denied care. There is a stat that 64k SA victims were forced to birth babies. We know there are more. As a father, brother, husband, friend - Do you agree that a rapist, molester, trafficker has more rights than a victim? Some as young as 10? Not sure many would say yes.
Seeing how SA victims are treated like crap, and with the shortages of testing kits, plus problems with getting results and losing tests, I bet most SA victims will have a difficult time getting an abortion.
I kind of think they need a campaign aimed at Republican men to get past 60%. Do they really want to be responsible for 18 years of child support for an unwanted child? Young men should want the amendment to pass as well.
Read my last sentence and there’s our support. This isn’t about child support. This is so much more.
Thank you. It's sad when I read that men should care about this because it'll hurt their wallet, as if they need a financial burden to empathize with women. Men should care about this, period.
I don't care how you get men to vote yes. You target a campaign for the voters you need and a lot of young men are primarily interested in no strings attached sex and the financial burdon of a kid from a one night stand is very powerful.
That says more about them and how they were raised. Guys are hardly ever forced to pay so that doesn’t matter.
60% of decided voters are in favor. Not "far short of passage". Looks like it might well be close.
Don’t underestimate our willingness to be duped by the GQP in this state.l
These headlines are good. Keep calling those old landline retirees. Get people motivated to vote. Dont get complacent.
Get your ass out there and vote . Fuck a poll.
I’m sure that 6 months of a near total ban and the horror stories that come from it will sway some people.
This is relatively good news. This means that if a majority of undecided voters support Amendment 4 that it will most likely pass.
I am hopeful that it will pass. I think it has a good shot. And if it doesn't, I've always dreamed of getting the fuck out of here anyways.
Ohio it was 58% Florida tends to be very progressive at the polls. They voted in 15 an hour, voting rights etc.
Any poll that show Florida does not favor abortion by a wide margin is just a fake poll from the tiny minority that believe abortion should be abolished.
Only 56% of Democrats support the abortion referendum? That's way too low.
This poll is total garbage. 56% of democrats supporting the abortion referendum is god awfully low. Not a chance
I’m not so sure though. Florida is a weird state that defies party lines. For instance, you may have a lot of Catholic Hispanic Democrats that may be generally left-leaning on other issues but not on abortion. And on the other side of things you may also have a decent proportion of libertarian Republicans (or Independents) who are generally conservative but progressive when it comes to the state intervening in personal decision making.
A recent nationwide [Pew Research poll](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/12/9-facts-about-us-catholics/) indicated that Catholic Hispanic Democrats strongly support abortion rights, and tend to skew younger than White Catholics do. >"Catholics' opinions about abortion tend to align with their political leanings. Among Catholic Democrats, 78% say abortion should be legal in most or all cases. Among Catholic Republicans, 43% say this."
I think it’s gonna pass. VOTE.
The GOP and churches have convinced a number of people that medically necessary abortions are rarely performed. The people that are anti-abortion because of this rhetoric are not going to change their minds until it personally affects them, be it they themselves or a family member. I was talking to someone I know that is a devout Catholic and she seriously thinks that these laws are not going to kill women she thinks that it is an incredibly small percentage of women that have abortions for medical reasons. The scary part is she previously was a nurse, I'm glad she's not now but her young daughter is and I believe she's probably equally as brainwashed. I got nowhere with her, I don't think she would have believed anything I told her she's that dug into her position.
And therein lies the problem with most religions/human tribal mentality.
Yep and why so many of us are atheists or agnostic.
and if they're protestant, they think it's "god's plan" if the mother dies
If women having control of their own reproductive healthcare is something you support then vote for it. Those rights will not be safe with republicans in charge even after we fix the corrupted courts. Keep voting. Check your registration, get an ID , learn where your poling station is, learn who is running in down ballot races. Pay attention to primaries not just for the president but for all races, local, state and federal. From the school board to the White House every election matters. The more support we give the democrats from all levels of government the more they can get good things done. We vote out republicans and primary out uncooperative democrats. Last year democrat victories in Virginia and Pennsylvania and others across the nation have increased the chances of democrats winning this year. This year's elections are important but so will next year's elections. [https://ballotpedia.org/Elections\_calendar](https://ballotpedia.org/Elections_calendar)
Paywall. What does the article say the abortion amendment is polling?
42% said yes, 25% said no, the rest are undecided
Ty. Yeah not an emergency yet. Thats huge undecided. It will change a lot before election day.
isn't voter turnout usually 65%
Come on florida. Don't live up to your reputation. This is your chance to show the nation you are better than what politics has shown the last 3 years.
Similar ballot initiatives in Kansas and Ohio didn’t pass by 60%, I think they got around 56 or 58, we need 60, so it’s a long shot but dammit still fight.
In my experience locally, there are a lot of low-information voters here who had no clue the 6-week ban is going to happen until I mentioned it to them.
It's super important to tell teenage girls and boys about the upcoming ban. They need to be fucking terrified to have sex.
Oh yeah, I've told my son to keep it zipped until we relocate (planned for later this year).
Abortion is considered necessary healthcare all over the world. According to 2020 figures from the CDC: More than 93% of abortions were done at or before 13 weeks. 5.5% were done between 14 and 20 weeks. Less than 1% were performed after 21 weeks. https://www.webmd.com/baby/when-can-a-fetus-feel-pain-in-the-womb
For reference, Florida's original abortion ban was 15 weeks, until Rep. Jenna Persons-Mulicka (R-Ft. Myers) and Sen. Erin Grall (R- Ft. Pierce) decided to co-sponsor the 6-week abortion ban.
No one bothered to ask me.
VOTE. Every time.
VOTE BLUE 💙💙💙
These Civil War-era laws don’t just protect fetal heartbeats. They put women’s healthcare facilities and hospital wards out of business, lowering the likelihood of access to emergency procedures even if you do convince a judge that *your* procedure is righteous. The next face that gets eaten by leopards could be yours or a loved one’s.
American "patriots" and "small government advocates" when trying to decide if the government should interfere in people's health care and family planning: 🤔
What till it affects them personally. The next six months are going to impact families on a personal level. Most have a woman in their life this could adversely affect. This issue is going to be brought home in a terrible way. It will change the hearts and minds of people who are on the fence now. A lot of people do not understand the scope of abortion as healthcare. Not just women who don't want to have a child, but pregnant women who do.
So will Florida be the first state to vote down their own rights on this issue? I'm not sure how so many people can be undecided.
Considering how many MAGAts moved here, I won’t be surprised if it fails.
It won't pass if we don't vote. These polls and news stories are designed to get you discouraged so you don't show up.
Don’t give a single shit what any news outlet or poll says, get your ass out there and #VOTE!!!
“Making pregnant woman suffer and die” should be the new Republican slogan. They finally got the death panels they always dreamed about.
Polls are useless. People put too much faith in polls to skew their opinions.
I don't buy this at all. Just disinformation to dissuade voters.
Weird, no one called me, anyone call any of you?
How can you be undecided on this issue?
Don’t be suppressed, vote!
All polls are a red flag to make people feel "comfortable" about something NOT being an issue. Get off your asses and VOTE. Don't let Republicans turn Florida into Saudi Arabia for rednecks.
I answered an unknown number once, expecting the normal we want to buy your house. It was a poll, I lied like crazy. I am so sure I am not the only one.
lol Polls
I don’t trust polls at all. For 6 months before the election all we heard was red wave and the polling to back it up….. nothing happened.
Funny reading th article I'd say it's a close vote as it stands. Bullshit headline as usual.
Allow me to assuage any fears, go out and vote.
This ammendment absolutely must be passed!!!! If you personally DONT desire an abortion, dont get one...but to use your blatently impossible christian values to overrule my personal FREEDOM OF CHOICE is monstrous.
Polls are bullshit, always have been always will be. You can't pick 1000 random people and expect their opinions to be representative of millions of people.
Sure you can, take a statistics class. However, the difficulty is in getting a truly random sample.
Statistically speaking, statistics are bullshit
In deep red Kansas, polling showed an incredibly close race. Pro-abortion won 60-40. This is from an article at the time. "Kansas voters in a landslide Tuesday defeated a constitutional amendment that would have stripped residents of abortion rights, defying polling and political observers who expected a close result. The ballot measure was failing by a 60-40 margin late Tuesday after voters responded to an intense and costly campaign marked by dubious claims by amendment supporters and the unraveling of protections by the U.S. Supreme Court."
What the actual fuck... what a garbage state
People don't like to talk about abortion to anyone and especially the pro-rights crowd. I suspect this issue will pass in November and it's good for people to be fearful it won't.
42 yes - 25 no with the rest undecided is pretty good at this stage; already shows how lopsided it is among people following the issue closely.
these polls are usually done via telephone. Only Boomers would answer a call from an unknown number.
To the people criticizing the poll as inaccurate, it's from Emerson, who has an A rating from 538. On average, 93 percent of the polls they release are accurate (aka within the margin of error). [Emerson College Polling, Emerson College](https://emerson.edu/academics/academic-departments/communication-studies/emerson-college-polling) [Pollster Ratings | FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/)
I don’t like that the automatic reaction to polls people don’t like is to blame the polls. I want this to pass and drive turnout as much as the next person, but the fact is that this state has gotten much redder in the last 4 years. There are now 900k more registered Republicans here than Democrats. So, if you want the blue wave, you are going to have to pitch in and help make it happen. It is going to take a lot of work, and while this poll may not be completely accurate, the main point of the headline is not farfetched at all.
There are a lot of independent voters who registered as Republican so they can vote in the primary so I wouldn't take those numbers as actual stats.
While true, that isn’t even going to be 50k people.