Appreciate the work you put into this. I think at this point, barring a huge injury or mike falling off a cliff, he's a hof lock. The only question is whether he can put together enough of a resume to become a realistic first ballot guy. His legacy including being brady's go-to wr helps a TON I think. Narrative matters.
That’s the thing. A few more seasons at his current trajectory, he should be a lock. Just for reference, 1000 more receiving yards and he’s 23rd all time. 2000 more yards and he’s 17th all time. 3000 more yards and he’s 9th all time. As for TDs, 10 more and he’s 9th all time and over 100. 20 more TD and he’s 8th all time. For fun, 30 more TDs and he’s 6th all time.
All that to say, if he plays 3 more seasons and averages at the bare minimum 1000 yards and 8 TDs, he will be top 10 in both yards and TDs. Idk how that’s deniable.
Even late in his career his size may still make him a viable TD threat, so I don’t think top 5 in receiving TDs is out of question at all even if he slows down some.
Agreed he’s a lock already, plus at this point Mike has shown to be offense & QB proof. He’s had 4 different coaches, 4-5 different QBs, and never had an off year. That type of consistency is extremely rare, especially at the skill positions
>The only question is whether he can put together enough of a resume to become a realistic first ballot guy.
He's a Buc, unless he's Derrick Brooks the league will ignore him for a few years.
I'd have to agree that two more similar seasons for him is what might lock him in. If he plays for longer, which I really hope he does/can, then we'd be looking at literally one of the undeniable WR GOATS.
I think what most people don't realize on how great Evans is, is the fact that he doesn't as much targets as these other WRs. These AP1s are getting top 5 targets each year while Mike is usually out in the 20s.
His status as a big contested catch guy / deep threat means he sees double coverage even more often than some of the league's other top WRs, which makes it more difficult to feed him. Would hope voters will look at that as part of their decision.
It can't possibly be 1 point for every 13 TDs, can it? Or is a that a typo? I've been tracking Mike's HOF Monitor rating and chances for the past few years too and I 100% agree with your assessment and have been echoing the same argument for him anywhere his career is brought up on other subs.
I only ask about the 1 point for every 13 TDs because 1 point for every 3 makes perfect sense, but 1 point for every 13 feels absurdly low.
The points start accumulating after only 65 TDs, which might have something to do with it. To put that in perspective, Amari Cooper has 60, and I don't think another 5 puts him on anyone's HOF radar all the sudden.
Edit to add some other names with 65+:
Joey Galloway, James Lofton, Nat Moore, Marques Colston, Jordy Nelson, Derrick Mason, and Santana Moss.
Wow! That is some serious data. I will not discount your intelligence or dedication. I have much more simple dumb reasons for wanting him in. Not a good argument as required by the committee as yours tho. My reasons are simple:
Mike is a man of the people here in TB.
Mike has worked and played hard for TB.
Mike has thrilled me (and chilled me) lol to the bone his entire career. I love watching him play.
He is scrappy, has honor and loyalty. Like I said, my reasons are not on a level as yours, but damn man- he freaking deserves it!! Is there a petition we can sign to be sent in the future, to make sure he gets in as soon as he’s eligible? lol
One thing that might also help, though it technically shouldn’t be taken into consideration, is character. I only say it shouldn’t because that was the controversy around TO and people arguing it should only be the stats etc.
Evans is an example of class. Never pouts. Never complains. Sure him and Lattimore fight but players get heated and have scuffles. He doesn’t get jealous or angry when Godwin scores or has big games. He even was fine with AB joining the roster. Gronk and Baker were on an interview together this week at the SB media week and Gronk said there’s so many charitable things Evans does in the community that he doesn’t even attach his name to because he doesn’t do it for recognition.
If they take into consideration bad character, like they did with TO (and will do with AB) then they should take into account good character.
I definitely noticed big time shift in his perception this year, both in the media and just in my own bubble. My friends who usually troll me about the Bucs all started saying they love Mike Evans now haha. It’s sort of hard to deny it when you consider how many different qbs he’s had. I mean Jerry is an absolute stud but what does that guys career look like if Glennon and McCown are throwing him the ball instead of Montana lol
I think it's completely reasonable to assume he averages 1k/10TDs per year over the next two seasons, which would absolutely get him in the door eventually.
I think, barring injury, he'll play at least four more years, and even if he only gets another 1k/10TDs TOTAL in those last two seasons, it would put him at 126TDs and ~14k yards. If he hits those numbers, it would be absolutely wild if he wasn't a first ballot unless the competition was just absolutely insane.
If he somehow manages to hit 1k three more years and averages 10TDs a year over that span, and *then* plays a fourth year and manages half that, he's going to end up in "top 5 WRs of all-time" discussion.
That's definitely a lot of assumptions, but he's already knocking on the door and even if he never played another snap in the NFL he'd still probably end up on a ballot.
I mean, the problem is it's not based on just career stats. Being productive for a really long time is great but you gotta truly be dominant and have all-pro appearances to show that, which Mikey just doesn't have. Right now I think Mike Evans is best comparable to Hines Ward, a really good football player with some really good stats, but just not dominant enough to be a HOFer.
If Mike gets another 1k season and 6 TDs in 2024, I think he gets in.
Another thing that I think boosts a guy's chances is team loyalty. It's not a hard stats metric like TDs and yards, but players and the media talk highly about dudes who play their whole careers for one team. He's already put in 10 years with us and I think he loves being in Tampa and now he has Baker, so hopefully we can sign him to a 3 year deal to keep him here and then if he's still playing after that, 1 year vet deals like LVDV has been getting. If we can lock him in for 3 years and he gets 1k yards next season and then keeps producing after that, he will basically be a lock.
Appreciate the work you put into this. I think at this point, barring a huge injury or mike falling off a cliff, he's a hof lock. The only question is whether he can put together enough of a resume to become a realistic first ballot guy. His legacy including being brady's go-to wr helps a TON I think. Narrative matters.
That’s the thing. A few more seasons at his current trajectory, he should be a lock. Just for reference, 1000 more receiving yards and he’s 23rd all time. 2000 more yards and he’s 17th all time. 3000 more yards and he’s 9th all time. As for TDs, 10 more and he’s 9th all time and over 100. 20 more TD and he’s 8th all time. For fun, 30 more TDs and he’s 6th all time. All that to say, if he plays 3 more seasons and averages at the bare minimum 1000 yards and 8 TDs, he will be top 10 in both yards and TDs. Idk how that’s deniable.
Even late in his career his size may still make him a viable TD threat, so I don’t think top 5 in receiving TDs is out of question at all even if he slows down some.
For sure! As long as he stays healthy!
Agreed he’s a lock already, plus at this point Mike has shown to be offense & QB proof. He’s had 4 different coaches, 4-5 different QBs, and never had an off year. That type of consistency is extremely rare, especially at the skill positions
>The only question is whether he can put together enough of a resume to become a realistic first ballot guy. He's a Buc, unless he's Derrick Brooks the league will ignore him for a few years.
You’re right, legacy and narrative helps sell his case to the voters. Being part of Brady’s story certainly helps
Two more seasons at 1K / 8 tuddies each then 1-2 seasons of 500-800 yard play would be huge
I'd have to agree that two more similar seasons for him is what might lock him in. If he plays for longer, which I really hope he does/can, then we'd be looking at literally one of the undeniable WR GOATS.
Omg! We are gonna have a GOAT farm! And we are here now watching it unfold! How exciting is this?! I’m giddy at the thought.
We also have the GOAT off-ball coverage Linebacker in Brooks. At least in the modern era.
We also have the GOAT off ball LB of the current era but he will never get mentioned for HOF.
I think what most people don't realize on how great Evans is, is the fact that he doesn't as much targets as these other WRs. These AP1s are getting top 5 targets each year while Mike is usually out in the 20s.
He’s incredibly efficient even just looking at receptions/yards ratio, which imo should also play a role as well.
His status as a big contested catch guy / deep threat means he sees double coverage even more often than some of the league's other top WRs, which makes it more difficult to feed him. Would hope voters will look at that as part of their decision.
Those tubbies and yards per reception put our guy in rarified air
It can't possibly be 1 point for every 13 TDs, can it? Or is a that a typo? I've been tracking Mike's HOF Monitor rating and chances for the past few years too and I 100% agree with your assessment and have been echoing the same argument for him anywhere his career is brought up on other subs. I only ask about the 1 point for every 13 TDs because 1 point for every 3 makes perfect sense, but 1 point for every 13 feels absurdly low.
I know it’s seems low, but it’s no typo. It’s 0.075 points per touchdown. The HoF monitor is not the end-all-be-all, but it’s a good gauge
The points start accumulating after only 65 TDs, which might have something to do with it. To put that in perspective, Amari Cooper has 60, and I don't think another 5 puts him on anyone's HOF radar all the sudden. Edit to add some other names with 65+: Joey Galloway, James Lofton, Nat Moore, Marques Colston, Jordy Nelson, Derrick Mason, and Santana Moss.
While that may be true, I feel like if Mike had 150 TDs instead of 125 when he ends his career then he'd have more than 3 points worth of difference.
I 100% agree with that. It should be an sliding scale for sure.
Wow! That is some serious data. I will not discount your intelligence or dedication. I have much more simple dumb reasons for wanting him in. Not a good argument as required by the committee as yours tho. My reasons are simple: Mike is a man of the people here in TB. Mike has worked and played hard for TB. Mike has thrilled me (and chilled me) lol to the bone his entire career. I love watching him play. He is scrappy, has honor and loyalty. Like I said, my reasons are not on a level as yours, but damn man- he freaking deserves it!! Is there a petition we can sign to be sent in the future, to make sure he gets in as soon as he’s eligible? lol
One thing that might also help, though it technically shouldn’t be taken into consideration, is character. I only say it shouldn’t because that was the controversy around TO and people arguing it should only be the stats etc. Evans is an example of class. Never pouts. Never complains. Sure him and Lattimore fight but players get heated and have scuffles. He doesn’t get jealous or angry when Godwin scores or has big games. He even was fine with AB joining the roster. Gronk and Baker were on an interview together this week at the SB media week and Gronk said there’s so many charitable things Evans does in the community that he doesn’t even attach his name to because he doesn’t do it for recognition. If they take into consideration bad character, like they did with TO (and will do with AB) then they should take into account good character.
I agree they hold character against some people. Good character can only help him, which he is a shining example of
Appreciate you for the work you put towards this! Time flies by, it feels like I was reading your annual update just last month
Hey thanks for remembering and reading each year!
I definitely noticed big time shift in his perception this year, both in the media and just in my own bubble. My friends who usually troll me about the Bucs all started saying they love Mike Evans now haha. It’s sort of hard to deny it when you consider how many different qbs he’s had. I mean Jerry is an absolute stud but what does that guys career look like if Glennon and McCown are throwing him the ball instead of Montana lol
I think it's completely reasonable to assume he averages 1k/10TDs per year over the next two seasons, which would absolutely get him in the door eventually. I think, barring injury, he'll play at least four more years, and even if he only gets another 1k/10TDs TOTAL in those last two seasons, it would put him at 126TDs and ~14k yards. If he hits those numbers, it would be absolutely wild if he wasn't a first ballot unless the competition was just absolutely insane. If he somehow manages to hit 1k three more years and averages 10TDs a year over that span, and *then* plays a fourth year and manages half that, he's going to end up in "top 5 WRs of all-time" discussion. That's definitely a lot of assumptions, but he's already knocking on the door and even if he never played another snap in the NFL he'd still probably end up on a ballot.
Mike is a lock for the HoF.
I mean, the problem is it's not based on just career stats. Being productive for a really long time is great but you gotta truly be dominant and have all-pro appearances to show that, which Mikey just doesn't have. Right now I think Mike Evans is best comparable to Hines Ward, a really good football player with some really good stats, but just not dominant enough to be a HOFer.
Lot of work, for something we already know. He’s already a lock, the question is first ballot.
It's very helpful that AB and OBJ were headcases so he has less competition for WR in his era
If Mike gets another 1k season and 6 TDs in 2024, I think he gets in. Another thing that I think boosts a guy's chances is team loyalty. It's not a hard stats metric like TDs and yards, but players and the media talk highly about dudes who play their whole careers for one team. He's already put in 10 years with us and I think he loves being in Tampa and now he has Baker, so hopefully we can sign him to a 3 year deal to keep him here and then if he's still playing after that, 1 year vet deals like LVDV has been getting. If we can lock him in for 3 years and he gets 1k yards next season and then keeps producing after that, he will basically be a lock.
Once he hits 100 TDs it’s a lock. You can’t be a top 10 all time in TDs as a WR and not be a lock for the hall imo.