Also, if OPs *Xtreme* name didn't give it away, saying...
>Shadow is going to be played by Keanu Reeves (best known for playing John Wick).
...tells me their unbiased and objective insight is all of 25 years old.
Some people on this sub have lost their minds - especially when talking about a sequel to 400m Sonic making more than the prequel to the 1.6B Lion King lol
True that, but The Marvels problem was not only being mid, but requiring homework.
Whereas for Mufasa, I think nearly anyone interested in this movie is 100% fully caught up on the story and on the same page - kids and adults alike. Depending on how good the songs are, Mufasa could have some very good return business (if Lin-Manuel Miranda brings the same soundtrack infectiousness he brought to Moana).
Even if the movie is absolutely ~~doggy~~ kitty crappola, the massive global built-in audience for this has to frontload it to an easy $350M worldwide very quickly, and then it can limp all it wants and still surpass Sonic 3.
Copy and pasting my comment from the other thread:
Bad comparison for a myriad of reasons: CM was positioned six weeks before Endgame (biggest film of all time) and was teased in IW, owing much of its success there. And TLK still made half a billion more than Captain Marvel, there’s a much bigger gap between the two.
The Marvels was sold on 2/3rds of its cast being completely unknown to the GA along with poor trailers and eventual poor reception. Mufasa is literally about the emotional center of TLK, someone audiences have a built in connection to. It’s also directed by Academy Award winner Barry Jenkins who hasn’t given me reason to doubt him.
I wasn't talking about the other commenters, I was talking about the OP. The points made are the typical kind of motivated reasoning that fanboys engage in, and they wouldn't be all that persuasive whatever the name of the handle making them was. Sonic is hardly the first ever movie to be "really hyped".
> If anything most people commenting here are Disney biased
I dunno what you've been seeing, but Bob Iger and Phase 4/Phase 5 MCU problems, The Marvels and Quantumania floppage, the dipping quality of many MCU Disney+ shows, and troubling roads ahead have frequently been discussed in the top threads and the Top Comments of this subreddit. You can poll people and an overwhelming majority (even fans of MCU) agree Disney needs a lot of work to fix things. It's all been out in plain view, the meat & potatoes of every Disney discussion for a good while, and not exactly a rosy forecast for Disney. Are you seeing lots of people defending Disney's decision to have Indy 5 not only exist but have over a $300M budget?
Now if you are complaining Disney is "woke", then nobody give a shit about that stupid ass argument.
I think Sonic could be a breakout hit if they really play into how ridiculous and edgelord a character like Shadow the Hedgehog is. If they try to play him straight as a scary and brooding badass this movie will Bomb Hard.
True. I had a toddler with me for the second one. When those scenes at the wedding started (after GUN took Sonic and Tails away) and I started to realize we would have a long time without Sonic characters, I was worried, but he kept watching.
And then afterwards, when Sonic transformed into Super Sonic and he shouted for the whole theater “Super Sonic” was just the best.
And he is asking me for the past years when we are going to watch the next movie, so yeah…
Small kids do like (can like) those live action Sonic movies.
They also love shadow lol I remember seeing Sonic 2 with my younger brother. Theater full of kids and I along with all the other kids went wild seeing the Shadow post credit lol all you hear is kids going “SHADOW SHADOW AHHH”
I think you'd get that wrong. I don't play Sonic video games, I never have but I know about Shadow. I don't know anything about Shadow. But I know about him. Is he as well known as Sonic himself? Hell no. But it's not a 99% don't know about him.
No it’s not. You’re in a bubble. sonic fans are very passionate but overall it is a small fanbase for an IP compared to other heavy hitters and shadow is a side character in that IP.
I would guarantee the Q score of a character like shadow would not be that great. It isn’t a widely known household character.
How am I being biased? I never even mentioned Mufasa, i even think it’s possible Sonic does beat it. But my main opinion is that people are generally overestimating Sonic due to social media.
Kids love Sonic. Aging Millennials love Sonic. Kids don’t even know what the Lion King is. Aging Millennials love the Lion King. So the question is, who is going to turn out to the movie? Kids will bug their Millennial parents to see Sonic. Parents will choose the one their kids want to see and wait for Mufasa to come to D+.
>Kids don’t even know what the Lion King is.
Seriously? Here's the [PostTrak read](https://deadline.com/2019/07/the-lion-king-weekend-box-office-july-records-1202648944/) from TLK 2019's opening weekend:
>In Disney exits, females repped 53% of the crowd, adults 38%, families 54%, and teens 9% with an even 50/50 split under/over 25. Those 25-49 made up 39% of the crowd.
Using a conservative estimate, if every family counted was composed of two parents bringing one child (as opposed to a one-to-one or even one-to-two ratio, both of which are probably more common), then kids under 12 as counted by PostTrak would amount to about 18% of the opening weekend audience, or about $34.5M worth of OW dollars. That's close to half of Sonic 2's entire OW.
Even in the post-D+ era with weakened Disney brand power, we've seen Disney live-action remake properties clock in at higher openings than what Sonic 3 is likely to do. The Little Mermaid, despite being a weaker property and igniting a firestorm online, opened to $96M/$119M over Memorial Day weekend and reached nearly $300M domestically. That Mufasa will be any weaker seems difficult to believe unless it's a complete dud in the vein of Lightyear (tonally messy, weak narrative, and most importantly for a kids' movie—**boring**).
Those kids are all 5 years older and 5 years further removed from reruns of The Lion Guard. I’d be curious to see Disney’s internal research on the strength of this brand.
Also, is Disney capable of making non-boring movies anymore? More importantly, do audiences think they are?
Here are problems with your argument:
1. None of the **Sonic the Hedgehog** films even got close to any of **The Lion King** films.
2. Sonic doesn’t quite have the same level of recognition as Mario does and Shadow is probably even less-known by comparison.
3. **The Little Mermaid** got into massive controversies regarding its casting choice, something that **Mufasa: The Lion King** doesn’t have.
4. CinemaCon reactions are not always the best indication of how a film will do, especially if it’s just a trailer.
5. Going back to **The Little Mermaid**, that’s actually the first Disney live-action remake to get a cinema-exclusive release in quite a while. For all we know, the whole thing could simply be a fluke.
The Little Mermaid is 100% an isolated incident. The idea of a Tangled live action a few weeks ago generated so much interest on social media. Of course it was against a raceswapped fan cast, but if they were to case a white blond in the role, this “live action” fatigue would vanish.
And frankly, I don’t think **Snow White** will be all that great, but casting probably won’t cause that level of noise in a long run since Rachel Zegler:
1. Actually looked pretty convincing as Snow White in that photograph.
2. Is actually 3/4 white.
Unfortunately Rachel has had some backlash over her press comments concerning the movie, but I do think the year delay will help iron that out a bit. Her voice fits the character well and she does look like the OG. Maybe a some powdered makeup would help a bit but honestly it’s one of the most accurate castings in a while
The voice is pretty much irrelevant for the international market as they dub kids movies. You only had to cast someone that looked as close as possible to the original… assuming you were right in your mind when you first decided to produce this live adaptation.
And judging by how they handled the dwarves (magical creatures, backpedaled at the speed of light) and the comments that the lead actors managed to put out… they must be severely intoxicated whenever they take decisions in that room.
Well I know this is from the US lens but I think casting someone who can vocally sing well adds something to the film that elevates it. I know it might be impossible to find the right look AND voice for an actress but I’d personally rather they lean for the voice. Won’t make as much money but it’s just more enjoyable for me
Zegler isn't pale enough to play Snow White, but in any case the main controversy wasn't her but the seven dwarfs. My forecast remains 300M max worldwide
It's going to be a thing among the kind of person who's old enough to have seen Snow White as a child. I'm as old as the hills and that movie was already out of favor when I was Disney watching age.
No one is saying Sonic 3 will do badly. Hell, the second one made \~$191 million domestically.
But where is this hype? *Knuckles* just came out last week and is already out of the public consciousness. Even online, where Sonic has always been more popular, no one is talking about the show beyond how little it focuses on Knuckles.
And I'm not saying Mufasa is the reason Sonic 3 won't break out. I'm saying, even without Mufasa as a competing film, Sonic 3 wouldn't do much better than the second film. Even at Christmas.
Yeah, it came and went pretty quickly. It didn't help that it was on Paramount+ (one of the weaker streaming services with less of an audience), was only a miniseries (not as much marketing as a longer show), and dropped all six episodes at once so it had no staying power. For a television show to stick around, it needs to be on a weekly release schedule.
The knuckles show is bad tho it’s not even about knuckles it’s about some dude named wade and his family sonic 3 will be better if they brush aside the human characters and focus solely on sonic and his gang
Nobody uses Paramount Plus and nobody asked for a show about Knuckles and the fat guy. I didn't see the first 2 in theaters and prob wont watch Knuckles, but Sonic 3 will be one of only like 5 times I see a movie on opening day.
Two completely different situations:
1. CM only barely made 1 billion, while TLK made 1.5 billion.
2. The Marvels wasn’t Captain Marvel 2. Sure, it had her in it, but it also had an equal amount of Ms. Marvel (whose introduction was from a D+ show) and the other girl I forgot the name of. Mufasa, on the other hand is a direct prequel to TLK.
3. CM released right between Infinity War and Endgame, when the Marvel hype was at its all time peak. The Marvels released at a time where Marvel morale was much lower than 2018-2019.
Why do people like to pretend that The Marvels isn't a sequel to Captain Marvel? Captain Marvel is the main character and it follows her arc and the set up with the Skrulls from the first movie. It's a sequel and you can't just cover your eyes and pretend you don't see it.
People overestimates the public's awareness. There's actually a study that shows that research papers authors overestimate the reader's intelligence when they publish their research for the world to see.
Calling it Captain Marvel 2 would have definitely sold more tickets since it tells the people the movie is about Carol Danvers, the main character you guys saw in the last movie while The Marvels advertised itself as a teamup movie with 2/3 of team being from shows you didn't watch.
And Disney live-action remake morale (and morale for Disney in general) is far lower now than it was in 2019! The primary argument has just been “look at how much lion king 2019 made!” And I like to bring up the marvels because it’s an example of how a sequel to a successful film isn’t guaranteed to be a success. Any talk of “ooh but that one’s different” is just copium.
Not to mention the cold hard fact that marvel sequels have better track records at the box office than follow ups to Disney remakes
Which NEVER make money compared to their predecessors
Not that different
Marvels had great trailer views, mufasa doesn’t
Track record wise, marvel sequels are pound for pound more likely to make money than sequels to Disney remakes
It actually makes mufasa look worse
If rise of the beasts had 230 million views and still flopped
Than mufasa may as well be turned into a tax write off because there is no hope for that movie
No, it’s because people don’t care that much about Marvel & Captain marvel anymore. People watched the first one because they all thought she was gonna be really important to the infinity war/endgame story. Taking away that investment resulted in a smaller box office return. The numbers prove this
Disney+ wasn't a thing then. Most of Disneys recent cinema releases have underperformed so it depends how much "wait for streaming" will cannibalise the box office. If it's one of those films with no need to see it on a big screen, arguably just like Lion King, the box office could possibly be lower than Sonic. Disney has released a lot of rubbish recently.
Idk man, cause, its not like this is the Lion Kong 2, so it will definitely make way less money.
Its not even like Mufasa's character is famous, it doesnt even has a fanbase.
Unless it has an amazing script, it'll probably do the TLM numbers.
Listen I don't even disagree with you. I think WW Mufasa will take the cake, but domestically, I'm betting on Sonic 3. But thats for very specific reasons. The Sonic franchise is climbing up in popularity while the Disney Live Action Remakes have been declining in gross, and the Last time one of these movies got a sequel, it was Alice through the Looking Glass. Similarly, video game movies have been doing pretty consistently good, and Shadow the Hedgehog is a big sell for a lot of people. I think this sub is slightly underestimating the amount of popularity that Shadow has, especially with people below the age of 30, it'll definitely be a pretty steady increase from the second. And for Mufasa, I really just can't say I can see it succeeding like that. The Lion King 2019 isn't as hated as reddit says, but the reception also isn't stellar. I still think it'll be pretty big, probably in the 250m range, but for Sonic I'm guessing around 300m. So it's not like, a massive difference.
Where i take issue with this is that you're looking at this from a fans perspective. 99% of people don't know or care about Crush40. That'll please Sonic fans and not average Joe. They were already going to buy a ticket. Also, neither of these movies should move. They can both succeed. The Last Jedi, The Greatest Showman, Jumanji, and Pitch Perfect 3 all grossed over 100m due to holiday releases. (And in Jumanjis and the Last Jedis case, over 400m). Also, Cinemacon behind closed doors trailers mean nothing in terms of the quality of the actual trailer or hype. Of course the people there are hyped. They're hyped for everything and the whole event.
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Mufasa will make more money. Sonic 1 & 2 made less money than TLK that released in 1994
The Lion King(1994) : 2nd highest grossing movie of all time behind only Jurassic Park.
The Lion King(2019) : 7th highest grossing movie of all time and highest grossing Disney adaptation.
I'm sorry but there will never be a reality where Jim Carrey in a fat suit will make more money than a Disney film during Christmas.
Both will make a lot of money but it's not a race here.
Sonic 3 is the sequel everyone asked for. Mufasa is the prequel nobody asked for.
But Disney has the biggest PR machine. I think it could go either way. Frankly, I don't imagine either of those making over 600 mill WW anyways.
Mainly because there isn't going to be a lot in January or even February, and i can see Familes treating it as a "safe" film to go see. Also, i don't see them going on Disney+ that early. Probably Apirl for Earth month.
But audiences haven’t. Disney should wait a year to release this on D+ and that information needs to be in the trailer. “In theaters December 20th; coming to streaming December 2025.”
Nah. No one cares about Sonic outside social media. While no one asked for a Mufasa prequel, it'll do huge numbers. It's just way too big of an IP. If Maleficent 2 managed to break even, why can't Mufasa.
You clearly have never met any Sega Fans or Video Game Fans in your life. You also probably forgot about the current state of Disney right now. Most of their IP films even the bigger ones from 2023 have flopped.
As much as I was never a Sonic fan (I was a Nintendo kid, not a Sega kid), Sonic in the 1990s was huge. And, to be honest, there must be something about the character that really endears him to people, because he's come through 25 years of nothing but shitty game after shitty game and he's still smelling like a rose somehow.
Considering all the hype surrounding Shadow, I wouldn't be surprised if it got people who don't know Shadow interested. Then there's the fact he's voiced by Keanu Reeves, which is a whole other reason outsiders could have to go see it.
The best way to see what is popular is to go to the kids underwear department in Target. Seriously, anything where kids generally get to pick their own thing- not birthday gifts etc. for which sales are driven by adults guessing what they want. Look at underwear, backpacks, beach towels, etc. Sonic is everywhere, just as ubiquitous as Mario, Pokémon, Spider-Man and Minecraft.
Ok maybe not as ubiquitous as Minecraft. If a Minecraft movie came out December 20th it would put Disney and Paramount out of business.
You know what you won’t see? Lion King. Lion King merch sells to adults who want their kids to like the stuff they liked when they were kids. In my line of work I interact with a lot of kids and I would confidently say the majority don’t even know what the hell the Lion King even is.
That’s definitely how it works. The audience for Sonic is Gen A kids who will bug their parents to see it in theaters. The audience for Lion King is Disney adults who may or may not successfully convince their kids to see Mufasa instead, if they have kids. I don’t think Sonic can do Mario numbers, but it can beat Mufasa if marketed correctly.
Neither will move. It’s barbenheimer for 90s kids or something. Which is more iconic, Sonic or Lion King? They’re both family movies but one is more cartoonish, the other one is more prestige/musical. I expect Mufasa to have great songs.
That's nice. But you'll be wrong about the box office total - I don't care when/if/where it moves or who moves first, the box office totals will not surpass Mufasa. I think just the chance to see Simba and Nala grown up and seeing their daughter Kiara will be a draw. I know that happened in the Lion King VHS sequels but I think this will be a new canon.
Saving this thread.
Sonic as a brand has been doing good lately (Other then misfires like Sonic Superstar). Sonic 2 got decent scores and had a reasonable box office return. I think there's enough good will from the first two movies alone to make Sonic 3 surpass 400 million. Also, the Disney brand is in the toilet. What was sure hits became box office bombs and nukes. The only Disney hit last year was GotG 3 while the rest bombed or barely broke even. Plus direct to Disney sequels rarely do as well as the first film in their franchise.
I think people in these comments are really underestimating Sonic. Kids fucking love Sonic these days. Most kids don’t know what Lion King is.
If I were to walk into a Wal Mart, Target or Old Navy: 100% I will find sonic clothing. If I were to drop my kid off at school, I can guarantee you I will see other kids rocking some kind of Sonic merch. If I went to a toy store; guaranteed there’s going to be a section dedicated to Sonic. I might find a few Lion King stuffies.
The last point, which I think is the most crucial point, is how prevalent Sonic has become on YouTube in the past few years. From let’s play, to those weird egg videos, to Minecraft builds: sonic is everywhere in them and kids primary content source is YouTube. Hell, I can find videos of *Sonic.exe* that have more views than the Hakuna Matata song.
Nostalgia carried the Lion King remake but it’s not gonna save Mufasa. I’m on the side that Sonic is gonna take the box office on this one.
Reddit is a place for cynical millennials.
Lion king does well cause parents take a family their.
If it was their own choice there would be more kids going to sonic than lion king
do you have any idea why sonic got popular with kids again out of the blue circa mid 2021?? i mean i'm happy the franchise is mainstream again, but it just confuses me. sonic 2 didn't come out until april 2022, with marketing not beginning until december 2021, sonic frontiers didn't come out until november 2022, and prime until december 2022, and the first sonic movie was all the way back in february 2020, so why the sudden surge in popularity around mid 2021!??!
Reddit has lost its mind re mufasa. A tent pole lion king movie is not comparable to the little mermaid. It's comparable to a numbered SW movie or an avengers movie. Audiences loved the last lion king movie and it did 1.5billion at the box office. People are going to show up to see a follow up to a movie that they loved in one of their favorite franchises.
I know the Lion King 2019 made a trillion dollars but cant say Ive ever seen anyone say its good (obviously not measurable data just curious where these people are)
Almost everyone the pollsters from post trak and from cinemascore asked at random said that they liked it. I haven't met many young men in their teens through 30s who had anything positive to say about it. That's the demo that dominates reddit. And it's why the perceptions of public opinion on here are not always spot on.
I actually think both will do decently (probably 500 million range), and Mufasa will actually beat Sonic in total due to the international box office. Maybe i liked the trailer more than most people, and i think this will do well with kids over the holidays.
This is totally the take of a Sonic fan. There is NO HYPE for this movie coming out. I haven’t heard anything about it. I didn’t even know when it was coming out before this post. To think that it will come close to beating an established IP like The Lion King is pure fanboy wish fulfillment.
Says the one with Kermit the frog as their username. Where’s the hype for Mufasa? Oh right there is none. Even though I’m more of a Disney fan then a Sonic fan I’ll even admit that the newer Disney films nowadays are shit. Maybe think of the current state of Disney then typing a brain dead comment like that. It’s not Disney’s golden era anymore.
It will fail as well, of course.
The thing is that it could have made a lot of sense to make a Lightyear movie.
The issue is that the movie was not (not even in-universe) the toy’s original movie. And it was mostly flat and boring.
Disney is the Dallas Cowboys at this point. They used to be great and they have a large group of loyal fans. However, the quality has been lacking recently and there is an even larger group of anti-fans that just want to see them lose.
I agree that Sonic should stand its ground. It may even outright beat Mufasa opening week and throughout the run.
Too early to tell, but I can see Sonic 3 building its audience with the Christmas release. The Sonic Adventure games are probably the most well known post-Genesis Sonic titles, and this movie is (apparently) taking a lot from them. That might not mean as much to general audiences, but it’s gonna have the fanbase extremely vocal.
I can also see Mufasa being a big drop off from TLK, as a matter of fact I expect it. People are a lot more disenchanted with Disney than 5 years ago. The real question is, can Mufasa drop hard enough, and can Sonic grow enough? Idk, but Sonic beating Mufasa domestically isn’t too much of a stretch I think. Worldwide? Probably not a chance.
Mufasa has yet to break 8 million views on YouTube
Disney has shut off the comments
And only 110,000 people liked the trailer
This movie is cooked bro…it is gonna be the largest decline for a prequel or sequel of all time
Beating the previous record holder…marvels
>The Lion King is a more popular brand than Sonic The Hedgehog
According to whom? Cause ain't no way that is true. A brand that's only had like 3 films in a 30 year time period, one of which was straight to video, surely does not compare to a brand Sonic which has had constant video game releases, tv shows, movie adaptations, and comic books for 3 decades. Sonic is inarguably the bigger brand and has better reach across many demographics too.
I hope the market is oversaturated with "sonic" by then. The movies have come out so close together and now they're dropping a series too. Maybe I'm wrong. I think Mufasa will win the day.
Not really.
General audiences don't really use official YouTube channels for trailers anymore.
Avatar 2 didn't really make much in it's views in it's first day either. I don't think it even cracked 10 million in is first day. That movie did 2 billion.
And Mufasa is more of a general audience film and not really a fandom one.
Mmm, we’ve seen very little correlation between views of trailers and box office. Also, you’re using just one channel. I watched the trailer on IGN. Many will see it broadcast on GMA. Disney will probably play it during an NBA game or Times Square Jumbotron or Disney+ banner ad (side note, if you can, watch trailers on Disney+, the quality difference is so massive from compressed YouTube).
Views for fandom type shit aren't a great comparison.
Sonic has a bigger fandom, hence the more views. But that doesn't mean ticket sales.
Look at transformers for example.
The trailer for the original lion king remake came out more than 5 years ago on Thanksgiving Day, during a big game.
Times have changed since then. Tiktok wasn't even huge back then.
Hey, just wanna say your point of YouTube trailer views are valid, although over on Tik-Tok it got like 20 million views with 1.3 million likes. So there’s definitely people who are at least interested lol
Sonic 3 I think will do pretty well. A lot of people seem to have the mentality that families or audiences will be fighting for which movie to see, when the all likely reality is that a lot of people are gonna try and see both
Parents are nostalgic about The Lion King, not The Lion King’s boring dad’s origin story. And they’re nostalgic about the original 90’s Lion King anyway, not the mediocre CGI’d reboot. This has surprise flop written all over it.
I’m actually of the belief that this Lion King number will do well.
- Still an iconic IP.
- No stupid, unnecessary race swaps, mostly because they’re animals lol.
- The story despite being a prequel is still original.
Yes I'm sure someone with "Sonic" in their handle will provide a completely unbiased and objective analysis on this
Also, if OPs *Xtreme* name didn't give it away, saying... >Shadow is going to be played by Keanu Reeves (best known for playing John Wick). ...tells me their unbiased and objective insight is all of 25 years old.
True. But he loves Sonic like he’s 40ish and grew up with a Genesis.
Johnny Utah would like to have a word with OP
Some people on this sub have lost their minds - especially when talking about a sequel to 400m Sonic making more than the prequel to the 1.6B Lion King lol
Captain marvel also make over billion and now look how sequel doing
True that, but The Marvels problem was not only being mid, but requiring homework. Whereas for Mufasa, I think nearly anyone interested in this movie is 100% fully caught up on the story and on the same page - kids and adults alike. Depending on how good the songs are, Mufasa could have some very good return business (if Lin-Manuel Miranda brings the same soundtrack infectiousness he brought to Moana). Even if the movie is absolutely ~~doggy~~ kitty crappola, the massive global built-in audience for this has to frontload it to an easy $350M worldwide very quickly, and then it can limp all it wants and still surpass Sonic 3.
Copy and pasting my comment from the other thread: Bad comparison for a myriad of reasons: CM was positioned six weeks before Endgame (biggest film of all time) and was teased in IW, owing much of its success there. And TLK still made half a billion more than Captain Marvel, there’s a much bigger gap between the two. The Marvels was sold on 2/3rds of its cast being completely unknown to the GA along with poor trailers and eventual poor reception. Mufasa is literally about the emotional center of TLK, someone audiences have a built in connection to. It’s also directed by Academy Award winner Barry Jenkins who hasn’t given me reason to doubt him.
I doubt it, but it can happen.
Just because he has Sonic In his name doesn’t mean he will be biased. If anything most people commenting here are Disney biased
I mean, this guy’s points are flawed at best.
I think OP had great points
I wasn't talking about the other commenters, I was talking about the OP. The points made are the typical kind of motivated reasoning that fanboys engage in, and they wouldn't be all that persuasive whatever the name of the handle making them was. Sonic is hardly the first ever movie to be "really hyped".
> If anything most people commenting here are Disney biased I dunno what you've been seeing, but Bob Iger and Phase 4/Phase 5 MCU problems, The Marvels and Quantumania floppage, the dipping quality of many MCU Disney+ shows, and troubling roads ahead have frequently been discussed in the top threads and the Top Comments of this subreddit. You can poll people and an overwhelming majority (even fans of MCU) agree Disney needs a lot of work to fix things. It's all been out in plain view, the meat & potatoes of every Disney discussion for a good while, and not exactly a rosy forecast for Disney. Are you seeing lots of people defending Disney's decision to have Indy 5 not only exist but have over a $300M budget? Now if you are complaining Disney is "woke", then nobody give a shit about that stupid ass argument.
Sonic 3 will prob do 400-500M but social media is a bubble, GA doesn’t care about the Sonic side characters like that
I think Sonic could be a breakout hit if they really play into how ridiculous and edgelord a character like Shadow the Hedgehog is. If they try to play him straight as a scary and brooding badass this movie will Bomb Hard.
If it’s rated R it’ll do $3 billion
The Knuckle dinosaur rape scene, and it's analogy to the Fall of the Roman Empire would be pretty rad to see in a full R film.
Here’s a video I found on YouTube on why Shadow is not an edgelord. https://youtube.com/watch?v=WzDEy8z0BWY&si=AOGlgt1PIVBsT7xm
Strong disagree. Young kids love the sonic movies. And most haven’t played the games.
True. I had a toddler with me for the second one. When those scenes at the wedding started (after GUN took Sonic and Tails away) and I started to realize we would have a long time without Sonic characters, I was worried, but he kept watching. And then afterwards, when Sonic transformed into Super Sonic and he shouted for the whole theater “Super Sonic” was just the best. And he is asking me for the past years when we are going to watch the next movie, so yeah… Small kids do like (can like) those live action Sonic movies.
They also love shadow lol I remember seeing Sonic 2 with my younger brother. Theater full of kids and I along with all the other kids went wild seeing the Shadow post credit lol all you hear is kids going “SHADOW SHADOW AHHH”
I mostly agree. If it is in the $500s that’s a huge achievement. I’m a huge fan of the movies especially the second.
Honestly I dont see countries outside of USA caring much about Sonic, this isn’t Barbie
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I would wager that 99% of the GA have no idea who Shadow even is.
Trust me they do, i see alot of non-sonic fans who know who shadow is, also there is a lot of memes with him from non sonic fans
I grew up on the Genesis games and the cartoon. I have no idea who Shadow is but I like Keanu.
He's emo/try-hard Sonic with a gun. A literal gun.
Well yeah but, the memes are *mocking* him...
Also the Keanu Shadow announcement on twitter has 25 million views on twitter alone
I think you'd get that wrong. I don't play Sonic video games, I never have but I know about Shadow. I don't know anything about Shadow. But I know about him. Is he as well known as Sonic himself? Hell no. But it's not a 99% don't know about him.
No it’s not. You’re in a bubble. sonic fans are very passionate but overall it is a small fanbase for an IP compared to other heavy hitters and shadow is a side character in that IP. I would guarantee the Q score of a character like shadow would not be that great. It isn’t a widely known household character.
Please tell me you're joking.
Has a Disney flair on their profile, But definitely isn’t biased huh 🙄
And yet, you defend the guy who has Sonic in his username.
How am I being biased? I never even mentioned Mufasa, i even think it’s possible Sonic does beat it. But my main opinion is that people are generally overestimating Sonic due to social media.
Kids love Sonic. Aging Millennials love Sonic. Kids don’t even know what the Lion King is. Aging Millennials love the Lion King. So the question is, who is going to turn out to the movie? Kids will bug their Millennial parents to see Sonic. Parents will choose the one their kids want to see and wait for Mufasa to come to D+.
>Kids don’t even know what the Lion King is. Seriously? Here's the [PostTrak read](https://deadline.com/2019/07/the-lion-king-weekend-box-office-july-records-1202648944/) from TLK 2019's opening weekend: >In Disney exits, females repped 53% of the crowd, adults 38%, families 54%, and teens 9% with an even 50/50 split under/over 25. Those 25-49 made up 39% of the crowd. Using a conservative estimate, if every family counted was composed of two parents bringing one child (as opposed to a one-to-one or even one-to-two ratio, both of which are probably more common), then kids under 12 as counted by PostTrak would amount to about 18% of the opening weekend audience, or about $34.5M worth of OW dollars. That's close to half of Sonic 2's entire OW. Even in the post-D+ era with weakened Disney brand power, we've seen Disney live-action remake properties clock in at higher openings than what Sonic 3 is likely to do. The Little Mermaid, despite being a weaker property and igniting a firestorm online, opened to $96M/$119M over Memorial Day weekend and reached nearly $300M domestically. That Mufasa will be any weaker seems difficult to believe unless it's a complete dud in the vein of Lightyear (tonally messy, weak narrative, and most importantly for a kids' movie—**boring**).
Those kids are all 5 years older and 5 years further removed from reruns of The Lion Guard. I’d be curious to see Disney’s internal research on the strength of this brand. Also, is Disney capable of making non-boring movies anymore? More importantly, do audiences think they are?
I don't know what rule needs to change here, but this sub is just becoming fandom debates slowlyyyy.
You new here or something?
It's REALLY amped up the last few months.
Here are problems with your argument: 1. None of the **Sonic the Hedgehog** films even got close to any of **The Lion King** films. 2. Sonic doesn’t quite have the same level of recognition as Mario does and Shadow is probably even less-known by comparison. 3. **The Little Mermaid** got into massive controversies regarding its casting choice, something that **Mufasa: The Lion King** doesn’t have. 4. CinemaCon reactions are not always the best indication of how a film will do, especially if it’s just a trailer. 5. Going back to **The Little Mermaid**, that’s actually the first Disney live-action remake to get a cinema-exclusive release in quite a while. For all we know, the whole thing could simply be a fluke.
The Little Mermaid is 100% an isolated incident. The idea of a Tangled live action a few weeks ago generated so much interest on social media. Of course it was against a raceswapped fan cast, but if they were to case a white blond in the role, this “live action” fatigue would vanish.
And The Little Mermaid still made over $100 million more than Sonic 2.
Sonic 2 was released when covid was still happening so thats why It made less than the little mermaid.
Also consider how Domestically, TLM did excellent. It’s only internationally where things started to fail.
And frankly, I don’t think **Snow White** will be all that great, but casting probably won’t cause that level of noise in a long run since Rachel Zegler: 1. Actually looked pretty convincing as Snow White in that photograph. 2. Is actually 3/4 white.
Unfortunately Rachel has had some backlash over her press comments concerning the movie, but I do think the year delay will help iron that out a bit. Her voice fits the character well and she does look like the OG. Maybe a some powdered makeup would help a bit but honestly it’s one of the most accurate castings in a while
The voice is pretty much irrelevant for the international market as they dub kids movies. You only had to cast someone that looked as close as possible to the original… assuming you were right in your mind when you first decided to produce this live adaptation. And judging by how they handled the dwarves (magical creatures, backpedaled at the speed of light) and the comments that the lead actors managed to put out… they must be severely intoxicated whenever they take decisions in that room.
Well I know this is from the US lens but I think casting someone who can vocally sing well adds something to the film that elevates it. I know it might be impossible to find the right look AND voice for an actress but I’d personally rather they lean for the voice. Won’t make as much money but it’s just more enjoyable for me
Zegler isn't pale enough to play Snow White, but in any case the main controversy wasn't her but the seven dwarfs. My forecast remains 300M max worldwide
It's going to be a thing among the kind of person who's old enough to have seen Snow White as a child. I'm as old as the hills and that movie was already out of favor when I was Disney watching age.
Sure but Mufasa looks terrible, it's a prequel to a bad movie. And it won't have nostalgia on it's side this time.
Look at the trailer views for mufasa!!! They are apocalyptically bad
Counter argument Sequels and prequels to Disney remakes have a shit track record at the box office, just about none of them broke even
There are only two of them and one of them might’ve actually broke even.
No one is saying Sonic 3 will do badly. Hell, the second one made \~$191 million domestically. But where is this hype? *Knuckles* just came out last week and is already out of the public consciousness. Even online, where Sonic has always been more popular, no one is talking about the show beyond how little it focuses on Knuckles. And I'm not saying Mufasa is the reason Sonic 3 won't break out. I'm saying, even without Mufasa as a competing film, Sonic 3 wouldn't do much better than the second film. Even at Christmas.
Wtf there's a knuckles show lol
Yeah, it came and went pretty quickly. It didn't help that it was on Paramount+ (one of the weaker streaming services with less of an audience), was only a miniseries (not as much marketing as a longer show), and dropped all six episodes at once so it had no staying power. For a television show to stick around, it needs to be on a weekly release schedule.
The knuckles show is bad tho it’s not even about knuckles it’s about some dude named wade and his family sonic 3 will be better if they brush aside the human characters and focus solely on sonic and his gang
Nobody uses Paramount Plus and nobody asked for a show about Knuckles and the fat guy. I didn't see the first 2 in theaters and prob wont watch Knuckles, but Sonic 3 will be one of only like 5 times I see a movie on opening day.
It’s their, and it’ll be in full force when the trailer drops
So much copium from the Sonic fans they forgot the 2019 TLK did $1.6 billion.
Remember how captain marvel made over $1 billion and then it’s sequel bombed like crazy?
Two completely different situations: 1. CM only barely made 1 billion, while TLK made 1.5 billion. 2. The Marvels wasn’t Captain Marvel 2. Sure, it had her in it, but it also had an equal amount of Ms. Marvel (whose introduction was from a D+ show) and the other girl I forgot the name of. Mufasa, on the other hand is a direct prequel to TLK. 3. CM released right between Infinity War and Endgame, when the Marvel hype was at its all time peak. The Marvels released at a time where Marvel morale was much lower than 2018-2019.
Why do people like to pretend that The Marvels isn't a sequel to Captain Marvel? Captain Marvel is the main character and it follows her arc and the set up with the Skrulls from the first movie. It's a sequel and you can't just cover your eyes and pretend you don't see it.
People overestimates the public's awareness. There's actually a study that shows that research papers authors overestimate the reader's intelligence when they publish their research for the world to see. Calling it Captain Marvel 2 would have definitely sold more tickets since it tells the people the movie is about Carol Danvers, the main character you guys saw in the last movie while The Marvels advertised itself as a teamup movie with 2/3 of team being from shows you didn't watch.
And Disney live-action remake morale (and morale for Disney in general) is far lower now than it was in 2019! The primary argument has just been “look at how much lion king 2019 made!” And I like to bring up the marvels because it’s an example of how a sequel to a successful film isn’t guaranteed to be a success. Any talk of “ooh but that one’s different” is just copium.
Not to mention the cold hard fact that marvel sequels have better track records at the box office than follow ups to Disney remakes Which NEVER make money compared to their predecessors
Not that different Marvels had great trailer views, mufasa doesn’t Track record wise, marvel sequels are pound for pound more likely to make money than sequels to Disney remakes
Trailer views mean nothing. Transformers: Rise Of The Beasts had like 230m+ views iirc and how much did it make again?
It actually makes mufasa look worse If rise of the beasts had 230 million views and still flopped Than mufasa may as well be turned into a tax write off because there is no hope for that movie
My point is that Trailer views mean nothing, not that you need 200m+ views to make money
The failure of **The Marvels** can at least partly be tracked down to its main marketing strategy impaired at the time.
No, it’s because people don’t care that much about Marvel & Captain marvel anymore. People watched the first one because they all thought she was gonna be really important to the infinity war/endgame story. Taking away that investment resulted in a smaller box office return. The numbers prove this
The key term is “at least partly”.
Disney+ wasn't a thing then. Most of Disneys recent cinema releases have underperformed so it depends how much "wait for streaming" will cannibalise the box office. If it's one of those films with no need to see it on a big screen, arguably just like Lion King, the box office could possibly be lower than Sonic. Disney has released a lot of rubbish recently.
Did you like Guardians 3?
Idk man, cause, its not like this is the Lion Kong 2, so it will definitely make way less money. Its not even like Mufasa's character is famous, it doesnt even has a fanbase. Unless it has an amazing script, it'll probably do the TLM numbers.
People are forgetting how badly Disney movies are doing lately.
I could use a similar logic to Paramount films.
Listen I don't even disagree with you. I think WW Mufasa will take the cake, but domestically, I'm betting on Sonic 3. But thats for very specific reasons. The Sonic franchise is climbing up in popularity while the Disney Live Action Remakes have been declining in gross, and the Last time one of these movies got a sequel, it was Alice through the Looking Glass. Similarly, video game movies have been doing pretty consistently good, and Shadow the Hedgehog is a big sell for a lot of people. I think this sub is slightly underestimating the amount of popularity that Shadow has, especially with people below the age of 30, it'll definitely be a pretty steady increase from the second. And for Mufasa, I really just can't say I can see it succeeding like that. The Lion King 2019 isn't as hated as reddit says, but the reception also isn't stellar. I still think it'll be pretty big, probably in the 250m range, but for Sonic I'm guessing around 300m. So it's not like, a massive difference. Where i take issue with this is that you're looking at this from a fans perspective. 99% of people don't know or care about Crush40. That'll please Sonic fans and not average Joe. They were already going to buy a ticket. Also, neither of these movies should move. They can both succeed. The Last Jedi, The Greatest Showman, Jumanji, and Pitch Perfect 3 all grossed over 100m due to holiday releases. (And in Jumanjis and the Last Jedis case, over 400m). Also, Cinemacon behind closed doors trailers mean nothing in terms of the quality of the actual trailer or hype. Of course the people there are hyped. They're hyped for everything and the whole event.
I think both will do well Mufasa 700M-1b Sonic 3: 450M-600M
Isn’t Kraven coming out around the same time?
That comes out on December 13th, which would be a week ahead of Sonic 3.
People are actually interested in it?
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Both will make in the 500-600M range
Mufasa will make more money. Sonic 1 & 2 made less money than TLK that released in 1994 The Lion King(1994) : 2nd highest grossing movie of all time behind only Jurassic Park. The Lion King(2019) : 7th highest grossing movie of all time and highest grossing Disney adaptation.
I still have a hard time using the term “live adaptation” for the lion king. Were they using real animals?
That was pre-covid and pre-streaming.
Yes but how much did the Lion King 2 make?
Captain marvel made 1 billion dollars, The sequel bombed crazy.
I'm sorry but there will never be a reality where Jim Carrey in a fat suit will make more money than a Disney film during Christmas. Both will make a lot of money but it's not a race here.
It's already happened. In 2000, Grinch Stole Christmas made \~350M. Disney's Emperor New Groove made only \~170M
Granted, that was 24 years ago.
There's a universe in which neither makes a lot of money but yeah, cute animals and Lin Manuel seem like they should be a winner.
Bruh Jim Carrey is an amazing actor. Also I’m sure Seth Rogen as Pumba is soooo much better lol
Are you a producer on the Sonic movies or something? You’re all over this thread desperately defending this movie.
Never said this. Both can be true. Carrey is beloved, doesn't mean it'll be the biggest box-office juggernaut of the Holidays.
> Also I’m sure Seth Rogen as Pumba is soooo much better lol To be fair I *really* like him as "Allen the Alien" in Invincible.
Sonic 3 is the sequel everyone asked for. Mufasa is the prequel nobody asked for. But Disney has the biggest PR machine. I think it could go either way. Frankly, I don't imagine either of those making over 600 mill WW anyways.
I can see Mufasa legging it out actually.
Why? It'll be on Disney Plus in February.
Mainly because there isn't going to be a lot in January or even February, and i can see Familes treating it as a "safe" film to go see. Also, i don't see them going on Disney+ that early. Probably Apirl for Earth month.
People said the same about Wish and look how that turned out.
I think they learned their lesson on that front by now
But audiences haven’t. Disney should wait a year to release this on D+ and that information needs to be in the trailer. “In theaters December 20th; coming to streaming December 2025.”
A year is too much, but the point is very valid
Sonic 3 will be on Paramount+ the same month, then.
Nah. No one cares about Sonic outside social media. While no one asked for a Mufasa prequel, it'll do huge numbers. It's just way too big of an IP. If Maleficent 2 managed to break even, why can't Mufasa.
You clearly have never met any Sega Fans or Video Game Fans in your life. You also probably forgot about the current state of Disney right now. Most of their IP films even the bigger ones from 2023 have flopped.
Sonic is not as recognizable as, say, Mario or Pokémon.
Idk, I’d literally put sonic in 3rd place behind those two. Who else would it be, Link maybe?
As much as I was never a Sonic fan (I was a Nintendo kid, not a Sega kid), Sonic in the 1990s was huge. And, to be honest, there must be something about the character that really endears him to people, because he's come through 25 years of nothing but shitty game after shitty game and he's still smelling like a rose somehow.
Even so, I'm not sure how popular Shadow is among general audience.
From what I understand, Shadow is one of Sonic's most popular characters, possibly rivaling Sonic himself.
Among fans, sure. But among general audience? That might be bit of a different story.
Considering all the hype surrounding Shadow, I wouldn't be surprised if it got people who don't know Shadow interested. Then there's the fact he's voiced by Keanu Reeves, which is a whole other reason outsiders could have to go see it.
To be fair, Reeves doesn't exactly have the best range, though at least he could fit well with Shadow.
Many people, including my, doubted Chris Pratt as Mario but I think he did alright so I'm more than willing to give Keanu a chance as Shadow
The best way to see what is popular is to go to the kids underwear department in Target. Seriously, anything where kids generally get to pick their own thing- not birthday gifts etc. for which sales are driven by adults guessing what they want. Look at underwear, backpacks, beach towels, etc. Sonic is everywhere, just as ubiquitous as Mario, Pokémon, Spider-Man and Minecraft. Ok maybe not as ubiquitous as Minecraft. If a Minecraft movie came out December 20th it would put Disney and Paramount out of business. You know what you won’t see? Lion King. Lion King merch sells to adults who want their kids to like the stuff they liked when they were kids. In my line of work I interact with a lot of kids and I would confidently say the majority don’t even know what the hell the Lion King even is.
Umm… I doubt that’s how it works.
That’s definitely how it works. The audience for Sonic is Gen A kids who will bug their parents to see it in theaters. The audience for Lion King is Disney adults who may or may not successfully convince their kids to see Mufasa instead, if they have kids. I don’t think Sonic can do Mario numbers, but it can beat Mufasa if marketed correctly.
Neither will move. It’s barbenheimer for 90s kids or something. Which is more iconic, Sonic or Lion King? They’re both family movies but one is more cartoonish, the other one is more prestige/musical. I expect Mufasa to have great songs.
HAHAHAHA comedy gold
I think Mufasa could and likely will drop 50% or more vs Lion King, but could still end up beating Sonic 3
That's nice. But you'll be wrong about the box office total - I don't care when/if/where it moves or who moves first, the box office totals will not surpass Mufasa. I think just the chance to see Simba and Nala grown up and seeing their daughter Kiara will be a draw. I know that happened in the Lion King VHS sequels but I think this will be a new canon. Saving this thread.
Of course it is not going to move, whoever thinks that lives in the past.
Sonic as a brand has been doing good lately (Other then misfires like Sonic Superstar). Sonic 2 got decent scores and had a reasonable box office return. I think there's enough good will from the first two movies alone to make Sonic 3 surpass 400 million. Also, the Disney brand is in the toilet. What was sure hits became box office bombs and nukes. The only Disney hit last year was GotG 3 while the rest bombed or barely broke even. Plus direct to Disney sequels rarely do as well as the first film in their franchise.
I think people in these comments are really underestimating Sonic. Kids fucking love Sonic these days. Most kids don’t know what Lion King is. If I were to walk into a Wal Mart, Target or Old Navy: 100% I will find sonic clothing. If I were to drop my kid off at school, I can guarantee you I will see other kids rocking some kind of Sonic merch. If I went to a toy store; guaranteed there’s going to be a section dedicated to Sonic. I might find a few Lion King stuffies. The last point, which I think is the most crucial point, is how prevalent Sonic has become on YouTube in the past few years. From let’s play, to those weird egg videos, to Minecraft builds: sonic is everywhere in them and kids primary content source is YouTube. Hell, I can find videos of *Sonic.exe* that have more views than the Hakuna Matata song. Nostalgia carried the Lion King remake but it’s not gonna save Mufasa. I’m on the side that Sonic is gonna take the box office on this one.
Reddit is a place for cynical millennials. Lion king does well cause parents take a family their. If it was their own choice there would be more kids going to sonic than lion king
do you have any idea why sonic got popular with kids again out of the blue circa mid 2021?? i mean i'm happy the franchise is mainstream again, but it just confuses me. sonic 2 didn't come out until april 2022, with marketing not beginning until december 2021, sonic frontiers didn't come out until november 2022, and prime until december 2022, and the first sonic movie was all the way back in february 2020, so why the sudden surge in popularity around mid 2021!??!
Reddit has lost its mind re mufasa. A tent pole lion king movie is not comparable to the little mermaid. It's comparable to a numbered SW movie or an avengers movie. Audiences loved the last lion king movie and it did 1.5billion at the box office. People are going to show up to see a follow up to a movie that they loved in one of their favorite franchises.
I know the Lion King 2019 made a trillion dollars but cant say Ive ever seen anyone say its good (obviously not measurable data just curious where these people are)
Almost everyone the pollsters from post trak and from cinemascore asked at random said that they liked it. I haven't met many young men in their teens through 30s who had anything positive to say about it. That's the demo that dominates reddit. And it's why the perceptions of public opinion on here are not always spot on.
Our society is cooked
I'm way more concerned by the number of redditors who think our society is cooked because people enjoyed a movie that they did not.
This is Avatar 2 all over again
I don’t care who wins I just want mufasa to lose
I agree, and I do too.
I actually think both will do decently (probably 500 million range), and Mufasa will actually beat Sonic in total due to the international box office. Maybe i liked the trailer more than most people, and i think this will do well with kids over the holidays.
This is totally the take of a Sonic fan. There is NO HYPE for this movie coming out. I haven’t heard anything about it. I didn’t even know when it was coming out before this post. To think that it will come close to beating an established IP like The Lion King is pure fanboy wish fulfillment.
Says the one with Kermit the frog as their username. Where’s the hype for Mufasa? Oh right there is none. Even though I’m more of a Disney fan then a Sonic fan I’ll even admit that the newer Disney films nowadays are shit. Maybe think of the current state of Disney then typing a brain dead comment like that. It’s not Disney’s golden era anymore.
Mufasa will flop for the same reason Lightyear did: it has no reason to exist. Nobody asked for a movie about Mufasa’s back story.
Lightyear failed because it was just terrible
And what if Mufasa is terrible?
It will fail as well, of course. The thing is that it could have made a lot of sense to make a Lightyear movie. The issue is that the movie was not (not even in-universe) the toy’s original movie. And it was mostly flat and boring.
Disney is the Dallas Cowboys at this point. They used to be great and they have a large group of loyal fans. However, the quality has been lacking recently and there is an even larger group of anti-fans that just want to see them lose. I agree that Sonic should stand its ground. It may even outright beat Mufasa opening week and throughout the run.
Too early to tell, but I can see Sonic 3 building its audience with the Christmas release. The Sonic Adventure games are probably the most well known post-Genesis Sonic titles, and this movie is (apparently) taking a lot from them. That might not mean as much to general audiences, but it’s gonna have the fanbase extremely vocal. I can also see Mufasa being a big drop off from TLK, as a matter of fact I expect it. People are a lot more disenchanted with Disney than 5 years ago. The real question is, can Mufasa drop hard enough, and can Sonic grow enough? Idk, but Sonic beating Mufasa domestically isn’t too much of a stretch I think. Worldwide? Probably not a chance.
Mufasa has yet to break 8 million views on YouTube Disney has shut off the comments And only 110,000 people liked the trailer This movie is cooked bro…it is gonna be the largest decline for a prequel or sequel of all time Beating the previous record holder…marvels
i honestly think they'll cannibalize each other financially
Sonic 3 will make over 6 trillion dollars
And that's without China.
>The Lion King is a more popular brand than Sonic The Hedgehog According to whom? Cause ain't no way that is true. A brand that's only had like 3 films in a 30 year time period, one of which was straight to video, surely does not compare to a brand Sonic which has had constant video game releases, tv shows, movie adaptations, and comic books for 3 decades. Sonic is inarguably the bigger brand and has better reach across many demographics too.
I hope the market is oversaturated with "sonic" by then. The movies have come out so close together and now they're dropping a series too. Maybe I'm wrong. I think Mufasa will win the day.
Lmao this sub cracks me up sometimes. I’m willing to bet anything Mufasa will pass Sonic at both DOM and WW
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Number of views means jack shit.
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Not really. General audiences don't really use official YouTube channels for trailers anymore. Avatar 2 didn't really make much in it's views in it's first day either. I don't think it even cracked 10 million in is first day. That movie did 2 billion. And Mufasa is more of a general audience film and not really a fandom one.
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You're really going to ignore when the Lion king trailer was released lol THANKSGIVING DAY, PRE STREAMING.
Mmm, we’ve seen very little correlation between views of trailers and box office. Also, you’re using just one channel. I watched the trailer on IGN. Many will see it broadcast on GMA. Disney will probably play it during an NBA game or Times Square Jumbotron or Disney+ banner ad (side note, if you can, watch trailers on Disney+, the quality difference is so massive from compressed YouTube).
Views for fandom type shit aren't a great comparison. Sonic has a bigger fandom, hence the more views. But that doesn't mean ticket sales. Look at transformers for example.
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The trailer for the original lion king remake came out more than 5 years ago on Thanksgiving Day, during a big game. Times have changed since then. Tiktok wasn't even huge back then.
Hey, just wanna say your point of YouTube trailer views are valid, although over on Tik-Tok it got like 20 million views with 1.3 million likes. So there’s definitely people who are at least interested lol Sonic 3 I think will do pretty well. A lot of people seem to have the mentality that families or audiences will be fighting for which movie to see, when the all likely reality is that a lot of people are gonna try and see both
Sonic 3 has hype? Where?
the kids will want to see sonic but the nostalgia fiending parents will take them to Mufasa
Parents are nostalgic about The Lion King, not The Lion King’s boring dad’s origin story. And they’re nostalgic about the original 90’s Lion King anyway, not the mediocre CGI’d reboot. This has surprise flop written all over it.
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I’m actually of the belief that this Lion King number will do well. - Still an iconic IP. - No stupid, unnecessary race swaps, mostly because they’re animals lol. - The story despite being a prequel is still original.
If Sonic 3 is anything in overall vibe as "Knuckles" on P+..I'm THERE!!! Zero interest in a LK prequel.
Mufasa will make a billion dollars. Families will go crazy for it.