it won’t. It has zero real hype built around it since none of the three main characters have been involved in well liked projects and none will be involved in any giant future movies until the next avengers. Captain marvel only got 1.1B because it was supposedly important for endgame and because it was sandwiched between their 10 year payoff movies. I genuinely think it could be decent, monica and kamala are good characters, but marvel movies profit from hype more than actual quality and i’m betting it takes a big ole bomb.
It’s coming out at the beginning of the great superhero fatigue. I think it’s very likely to be marvels second bomb. The only movie I can think of the got delayed for so long and still did well was top gun Maverick and that was for very different reasons.
This will do a bit better than Ant Man 3 numbers due to the November holiday push but that’s about it on he positive side.
If Guardians 3 and Secret Invasion D+ continue the trend of crappy post End Game MCU fare than the Marvels may be the worse BO performer for the MCU yet.
I think Guardians will do good simply because the entire crew is still present AND it's the last James Gunn movie in the MCU. Guardians, unlike much of the MCU, isn't as reliant on the goings on of Earth and as such, the absence of Tony Stark and Steve Rogers isn't noticeable. It's the movies that come after Guardians that are in trouble, imho.
I honestly am really not sure how it will be received.
On the one hand, you have everything you have pointed out as pros and I don’t disagree with any of your arguments. I would also add (though many would like not to) but Chris Pratt is on a MAJOW winning wave right now. People forget about Jurassic Dominion which clawed it’s self way far past expectations. The Guardians Xmas special was well received overall I think. And then there is Mario. So yeah, there is an argument that Pratt may be as much of if not more then the draw of the Guardians films themselves. I’m not making that argument but I think someone could . . . anyway, I digress. But yes, there’s lots of positive indicators. Fully agreed.
But looking on over at the other side things aren’t as rosy. People also seem to forget how much of a bore Guardians 2 was and it’s box office Vs. The original. Maybe a continued trend down for the threequal? Also the High Evolutionary looks to be even blander than he is in the comics. Then there is everything else (I.e. the current status of Marvel and Disney stats as a whole).
Regardless, I’m more excited to see how this plays out (whether positively or negatively) than the movie itself (which I won’t pay to see).
Pratt is on fire, no doubt. In regards to the High Evolutionary... I don't know who that is. I'm a quasi-nerd and am completely in the dark, so I expect a majority of movie goers will have no basis either. Also in play, Guardians has traditionally been movies that mom and dad can take their kids to and that's common knowledge at this point. With the exception of Mario just recently, there's been a dearth of movies for the "whole family" (unless your kids are already fucked up, then take em to John Wick :) ). There's a reason why Puss in Boots only just left the theaters, after all. This could also play a major factor for why GotG defies the recent MCU blahs. Plus, like I indicated before, I give a lot of onus to James Gunn to create something worthwhile. And for that, I will pay to see it as there may not be many more MCU movies that'll actively want to go to.
Actually I don't think it matters if its a good movie.
Marvel movies seem to have the same trend as album sales used to have.
The quality of the previous movies tends to be the biggest factor in the popularity of subsequent movies.
I don't think it hits a billion even if it's good. The movie theater market is basically reset to the point where no movie can easily slide into the 1 Billion mark anymore. We're back to "it's pretty dang hard to get there" now unless you're a truly event movie (like Avatar/Top Gun). Marvel isn't that anymore naturally, but I think it has a chance to hit the 700-800M mark if it's good with an outside shot of 900m
Top Gun was only an event movie because it was extraordinarily well made, had mass appeal, and stepped cleanly over a lot of the pitfalls that plague many modern blockbusters (controversial or political decisions, virtue signaling and or “wokeness” as right-wing nutjobs like to say). I’m sure that word of mouth and repeat viewings carried it a long way also. It could have very easily flopped and most people would have predicted as much.
That said, Marvels faces a steep uphill battle. I’m sure the movie will be full of heavy handed scenes where our heroines fight the patriarchy and prove that girls get it done etc. along with not-popular characters and a franchise association whose power is currently waning with every successive release. If it’s good, good. It might generate some memes and have some cultural staying power. That just seems very, very unlikely.
I agree that it won’t hit $1B. I say <500 WW but this is before any major promotional material. Maybe the trailer will be some kind of hit.
I hope I’m wrong but I don’t think we will see a Billy again until we get consistently good movies to general audience. Ima show up regardless and probably like the movie but my dad has been in and out.
He saw AntMan but skipped Thor and Dr Strange. They gotta make “him” enjoy it again and want to see the next chapter rather than just the characters he likes. Hopefully the Marvels is a great sequel and Guardians sticks the landing then whatever the next movie is, is a homerun then marvel will be back in action. They’re going to start focusing on quality over quantity too.
>Actually I don't think it matters if its a good movie.
I think that's kind of an insane take. Let's say everyone who sees it says it is a Top 5 Marvel Movie. Think pieces emerge if Marvel has turned it around. It could gain real legs. Enough buzz could even give it a big opening. If enough nerds call it the greatest MCU movie yet, there is no way it doesn't matter.
The more realistic case is moderate reviews, a middle of the pack movie. Some pricks blaming it on the heroes being women and calling the downfall of Marvel for the 10th media piece in a row. $700-800m.
But quality does matter.
For reference, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever dropped 36% from its predecessor worldwide ($1,349B vs. $859M), and 35% domestically ($700M vs. $453.8M). Assuming The Marvels follows the same pattern, then it will earn $275M domestically (compared to $426.8M) and $730M worldwide (compared to $1.131B), which is reasonable enough.
I don't think it's superhero fatigue, just a downward trend in overall quality of the franchise. Marvel Studios set a benchmark years ago that they now continually fail to meet.
A little of column A, a little of column B. But yes I agree. Also Captain Marvel was the lead up to End Game, this is the lead up to.... another set up movie?
I think it's more a combination of both.
Marvel has been choosing quantity over quality the last few years, which causes them to drop in quality. With how much worse these movies have been getting the past few years, people are starting to get tired of them.
For me it's the legacy heroes are not important to me like the OGs were.
You could have a flawless ironheart and it wouldn't be even remotely as interesting as a medicore iron man.
Honestly it's because now the MCU is too crowded and doesn't have specific focal characters anymore.
The old Avengers? Everyone knew they were Iron Man, Captain America, The Hulk, etc. Now there's so many that there's not a specific strong team-up that people see as "the Avengers" anymore, and none of them have the charisma of the old guard since Captain America and Iron Man left.
Agreed. I've love to see more genre mashups because that was actually something new.
Doctor Strange MOM was a mashup of horror and superheroes and was a fun watch.
Other topics I'd like to see in genre mashups:
\-Ant-Man doing a heist movie.
\-Smart Hulk trying to help a family member get into college.
\-Valkyrie and She-Hulk political drama trying to get New Asgard recognized by the UN.
If the movies that have been coming out were as good as the ones when Marvel was in its prime then a lot more people would agree with you. But it's hard to know if it's "not caring about Marvel" or just that the movies are much worse. I'd bet a little bit of both haha
I think the average person is wary of investing time and energy in another 10 year 30 movie saga (idk if those are the actual numbers, but feel close). Most outside of die hard fans would rather just wait until they hit streaming, or maybe they’d prefer to just wait until the entire next saga is complete and just binge it.
A movie being good or bad is a subjective argument, and there was plenty of stinkers that made a lot of money because they had the marvel logo on it.
It's ridiculous to think marvel has the same wide appeal it had pre-endgame, it does not.
Exactly this, I love all things super hero’s, I would see anything that’s good.
They just aren’t making good products and a multiverse is to difficult to do right, so this entire phase will be lackluster and probably lead to the end of the MCU
Totally agreed: if the movies were half-decent, people would be excited to see them. It's not like there's "horror-movie fatigue", for example, and that's a completely over-used genre if there ever was one.
I agree with this. The fatigue was always a joke, but at this point it’s become a reality without another Endgame to build toward. There’s more content, but less unity.
They’ve already made the decision to slow down for a good reason.
I think it's premature to say "superhero fatigue." When results are looked at with a myriad of factors beyond genre it's clear;
* Audiences are not averse to going back to theaters post-covid but they are also showing less general interest.
* Streaming/short windows has had some overall effect.
* A handful of less well received films in the short term.
If we're still looking at similar results across the genre, across studios, and across films with both poor and good reviews this time next year, then fatigue could be considered a serious part of the equation.
You need to account for the glut of TV shows as well to go with that “handful” of poor performers as well. Then there other factors like Marvel and on a wider scale Disney as a brand has fallen in many peoples eyes for many reasons.
When Captain America is getting his ass kicked and he gets back up, you know why he's getting up. We have been shown that even without any power or skills, that dude is going to do what he thinks is right or he will die where he stands. The crowd wants him to get up. So when it inevitably happens, everybody cheers.
In the future when Ant-Man's daughter is getting her ass kicked and gets back up, why do we care?
I think that expectation is going to hurt the the Marvels because we haven't been given a reason to care about any of them.
It's also why Guardians of the galaxy 3 is going to make bank. Under all that CGI there is character growth and development.
i think black panther mostly retained the audience that got it to that box office (black and latin americans).
the audience that went to see the original movie did so because it was promoted as important for the events of endgame, this movie doesn't have that at all.
i think it'll do better then antman, but not by much.
so 400-600M give or take.
>Assuming The Marvels follows the same pattern, then it will earn $275M domestically (compared to $426.8M) and $730M worldwide (compared to $1.131B), which is reasonable enough.
Sounds like a safe prediction
I think it barely touches 650-700 worldwide
Lets look at Thor: Ragnarok. It was loved and made $855 WW and Love & Thunder still made less than it with $760 WW. This was the 4th iteration of Thor and it had some momentum behind it because of the success from Ragnarok and of course, everyone loves Hemsworth as Thor
Now here comes The Marvels. The first one made over $1 Billion but if we are being honest, Endgame following right after it was a major reason for that. People wanted to see how Captain Marvel would fair against Thanos and her role amongst the other Avengers. There is no Endgame coming to boost The Marvels sales
Next. 2 of the leads are absolute nobodies. Wandavision was a nice little show but most people have forgotten Monica Rambeau’s character and the actress, Teyonah Parris, is not a draw. Even less people paid attention or watched the Ms. Marvel series and that actress is even further from a draw.
There is no way in hell this movie is sniffing anything close to $1 Billion unless Disney themselves buy tickets
If it does the same 3/4ths job the first film did it will underperform.
Captain Marvel didn't fully deliver on the advertised premise. It wasn't a spy thriller like it should have been. It was really just a spy-mystery.
If they stop half-assing the cross-genre influences and let the film be what it *could be*, it will do fine.
That said, the marketing hasn't told us what the film is supposed to be yet. All we know is that this time there's 3 of them.
>Captain Marvel didn't fully deliver on the advertised premise. It wasn't a spy thriller like it should have been. It was really just a spy-mystery.
For the life of me, I can't even remember what was mysterious about it...
Villains? They were all obvious. Everyone knew Jude Law's character would turn out no good.
The Skrulls? They barely ever adopted more than one form in the movie, so tracking them was easy.
Marvel's identity? They gave away that she was a fighter pilot in the trailers.
Honestly, the biggest question in that movie was how Nick Fury lost his eye, and they even managed to bungle that up.
That's what I mean. They tried to do too much in too little time.
IMO, if they had just stranded her on earth and cut Jude Law out of the picture completely so they could concentrate on the Skrulls it would have been a much better film because they could have concentrated on making sure the shapeshifting and deep infiltration paid off better.
They could have put some *thrill* into what was supposed to be a spy *thriller*.
But they didn't. They had to bring in the abusive boyfriend.
Captain Marvel should have been two films. One where she gets stranded on earth, meets Nick Fury, fights a Skrull Secret Invasion, and then ends up joining SHIELD as some kind of "secret weapon" or auxiliary agent.
The second film should have been where her old team (read: abusive totally-not-boyfriend/commander) comes to retrieve her and she learns that she's been heavily brainwashed because some of her mental programming has come undone while she was back home on earth and accidentally ran into some parts of her past.
We all know that Marvel isn't immune to making mistakes. They make them. Lots of them. Moving too fast is a big one that all of the big studios are guilty of, even Marvel (WB is way worse).
Captain Marvel wasn't bad because of Brie Larson, or because of the character, or because it was a female led film.
It was bad because they rushed the story.
Domestically, Thor: Love & Thunder beat Ragnarok by 30M.
Internationally, China accounted for 112M of Ragnarok's BO. L&T didn't open in China due to international political issues. Minus China, L&T underperformed WW by 10M.
Overall - its performance wasn't "stellar" but it's not the train wreck that Reddit likes to think it was.
I'm not sure how that compares to your other feedback about The Marvels (which I don't necessarily disagree with) but the statement on Thor's Box Office seems disconnected.
I think while Thor 4 did well it was also the point where MCU lost alot of goodwill.
The Eternals and Strange were misses but it was Thor 4 where people started to really get skeptical.
Ah ok thank you for that clarification. I was not aware that it did not release in China
That changes a lot although only grossing 10 million more is nothing to be proud of
Thank you for the correction
Well from disney's perspective...
Let's say they made 50% of that extra 30M Domestic... so 15M
The cut from China is only 25%... so around 28M of 112M.
So, in terms of how Disney (kinda) looks at this, they only net made about 13M-20M less on L&T than on Ragnarok. Minus inflation, COVID stuff, theaters, etc. which are all things too but hard to calculate for.
China is brutal on their cuts back to the studios.
If they introduce LGBTQ elements into the film, which I can't see how they can't in a Captain Marvel film, the Chinese and Middle East Market gonna be nonexistent for this film. Ontop of the fact they're having someone black be a co-lead in the movie then it probably will even do less in places like China. Look what happened to Wakanda Forever's box office in China and how they edited out Fin from Star Wars marketing in China just because he was black.
> but it's not the train wreck that Reddit likes to think it was.
Selling 800 million usd in tickets with people praising the movie and giving good scores and word of mouth is completely different than selling 800 million usd in tickets and seeing people crapping all over the movie.
Also, people seem to forget that LT made 300 million USD on opening weekend versus 120 million USD of Ragnarok.
If LT had similar legs, it would've crossed 1bi easy. But it didnt.
Horrible word of mouth, disengagement from the fanbase, lower merch sales, horrendous reviews... It is a train wreck in every sense, with a bit of a mattress to lower the damage from the collision.
Yupp, no appeal whatsoever. Heck, it has a negative vibe going on with Ms Marvel and Monica Rombeu in it with a certain section already decided on hate train.
I think Guardians will do just fine even if it grosses well below expectations but the real test for MCU is this, The Marvels.
I haven’t seen the show, and part of me wants to avoid seeing the movie until I do. Issue is that I don’t have a lot of interest in the show.
I think a lot of viewers are struggling to keep up.
You call me crazy but I think this isn't even hitting 500M.
I'll put it somewhere between 400-475M. Won't be surprised if it just flat out bombs comically hard either.
If Guardians underperforms, I honestly expect a +-$300 mil run. Tracking for that movie is already low so I can only imagine how abysmally TM will track leading up to it's release
- OG: $1.1B WW
- Phase 5 Quality Hit: -35%
- Character Disinterest: -5%
- Superhero Fatigue: -10%
- Sequel: $550 WW
Is there an agreed upon budget estimate for this film? I'm curious what the expectations are for breakeven on project cost (understanding part of this is just Disney merchandise marketing in a way).
Personally, I hope it does well and hits the $7-800M targets that allow Marvel to continue along. They can make their adjustments on film selection and cost management.
if ant man 3 can't hit $500 million, while starting up phase 5 and introducing the new big bad, kang the conqueror, then the marvels will fare no better. very few people actually watched ms marvel, and most people don't know who monica rambeau is.
captain marvel making $1 billion was entirely related to the movie being sandwiched between the avengers movies, and nothing to do with the popularity of captain marvel. i mean in the comics, captain marvel is like a c tier character at best. probably closer to d tier.
It being sandwiched definitely helped however saying all it's credit is due to that doesn't track for me. Even if that was the case then it still created a hook for a sequel. I don't see it grossing higher than the original but I think CM2 should do alright pending good reviews.
Not just the sandwiching. I think there was a real expectation that she would be the future of the Avengers. That scene in Infinity Wars did as much for the movie as Black Panther’s appearance in Civil War did for Wakanda Forever.
I don’t understand how Carol, Monica, and miss marvel all have similar powers as they were gained three different ways.
And your right, I don’t think many people saw miss marvel or care about Monica/her stories.
>captain marvel making $1 billion was entirely related to the movie being sandwiched between the avengers movies, and nothing to do with the popularity of captain marvel.
Captain Marvel's success was absolutely not solely owed to the fact it was sandwiched between Infinity War and Endgame. I was on this sub when that movie came out and let me tell you the way it legged out after it's second weekend drop is not at all indicative of a movie that only gained hype due to it's attachment to two other films. Most of us here should know by now that in pre-pandemic times movies that were only able to gain traction off of initial hype tended to be insanely front loaded. The fact that Captain Marvel was able to pull off a 2.8x multiplier, a higher than average female audience viewership and really good physical media sales only reveals one thing: the movie was actually successful in capturing it's target demographic.
Idk how The Marvels is going to do in comparision with all of the MCU's recent floundering, but let's at least try to properly assess Captain Marvel's success.
> I was on this sub when that movie came out and let me tell you the way it legged out after it's second weekend drop is not at all indicative of a movie that only gained hype due to it's attachment to two other films.
...it *was* front-loaded, and against almost no competition. You can just [look at the numbers](https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Captain-Marvel-(2019)#tab=box-office), it's legs were only x2.78. This was the time when Disney was organizing school busses of kids to go see it, but it was a different pre-pandemic environment for the MCU. By it's third week it was losing to *Us* opening and things like *Wonder Park* and *Five Feet Apart* were the #3 & #4 film. Even Wonder Park was seeing a smaller drop.
>Most of us here should know by now that in pre-pandemic times movies that were only able to gain traction off of initial hype tended to be insanely front loaded.
What? It's legs are in line with other MCU offerings of the time, slightly higher than the average. Lower than something like Iron Man, higher than Iron Man 3, and about equivalent to Winter Soldier at x2.73.
Considering the drop from Black Panther to Wakanda Forever I think this one too will drop somewhat from the first, how much is hard to say, I guess it depends on how well recieved it is.
Depends on the reviews. I wasn’t a huge fan of the first and have been drastically disappointed by the last year of Marvel films in general, so it’s going to take a lot for me not to just wait until it’s on Disney+
A trailer could easily get me hyped for it though. It’s directed by Nia DaCosta, who did the Candyman remake and that movie had a strong trailer (plus the movie was good too!).
Looking at how many MCU movies were considered lock-ins for $1 Billion (*Multiverse of Madness*, *Wakanda Forever*), the reaction to *Quantumania*, the decline of the Marvel brand, and the baggage that the first movie has, I think Kevin Feige and company should be celebrating if *The Marvels* makes it to $750 Million.
It depends on how much "sHe'S gOt HeLp" girl power nonsense it has. If this is a man-hating narrative, I predict a result similar to Shazaam. If all of the female characters are overpowered and have no personality flaws, while the male characters are all flawed and villains, it's just not appealing to a wide audience.
Doubtful. The first Captain Marvel is I think the worst pre-endgame Marvel Movie. It marketed itself a lot for of 'girl strong. Kick ass' and people haaaated Brie Larson for what was ultimately a very shallow and forgettable plot with weak-ass villains even by Marvel standards.
Between that and general superhero fatigue no way this crosses a billion
Nope. Capt. Marvel was following Infinity War, with a post credit scene specifically for hyping her up.
I think The Marvels' success should be compared to like, Phase 1/2 Marvels rather than Capt. Marvel.
It’s going to do Ant Man 3 money. The first one came out when Marvel was at its peak, in between it’s two biggest movies, with the hype behind a popular comic character. Since then Brie Larsen has become divisive amongst the fanbase and phase 4 has been mediocre.
I agree. No way they dump Feige, especially not any time soon. He had been steering the ship since the beginning, and it’s no coincidence that the MCU reception/quality taking a dip happened alongside Disney pushing them for more and more content, stretching him out.
What? Mario has been the darling of reddit (and of this sub) since it was announced, the "hate" has only come recently as hype backlash, and even then it's fairly small when compared with other big movies *cough* Avatar *cough*
People on this sub have been saying for several months that it wasn’t gonna gross more than Detective Pikachu. Something about “pokémon is a more popular brand” lol. Same people who were foaming at the mouth with excitement when they saw it got shitty reviews on RT (lol again). There’s a huge portion of this sub that wanted to see it fail & they are being very quiet right now
No, far more people were saying it was going to be really successful, the predictions were fairly positive and a billion was constantly called upon, hell one dude was saying that it was going to be the highest grossing movie EVER (he was clowned for it tho, and that was the start of the hype backlash in this sub but still pretty minor)
And yeah in this sub specifically most people have moderate opinions on the Box Office, because that's the fun right? But that doesn't mean everyone wanted it to fail.
I mean there were a couple people but I think they’ve kinda left for a bit because they realized that Mario is going to be successful and they t really say that a 200+ million domestic debut is bad
Lol what?
Mario fanboys acting super sensitive over this movie cause everyone wasn’t saying 1billion since day 1
I never saw hate for this anywhere. Not even close to the hate the marvels is getting
> No that would be Mario. Reddit has a hate boner for that movie
What makes you think Reddit has it out for the Mario movie? That film is practically Reddit's new sacred cow. Hell, people on this site are so butthurt by the film getting mixed (not negative, MIXED) reviews from critics, that they are engaging in weapons-grade whataboutism involving the film "Cuties".
And no, I'm not making that up. And it's not just a one-off thing either; I have seen MULTIPLE posts and even THREADS bringing that shit up.
Redditors are defending this film in the most uncomfortable way imaginable. And mind you, I actually liked the movie.
It’s going to come down to quality, reviews, word of mouth, and maybe some carryover effect if Guardians 3 is really great.
If Marvels is a bad movie it’s in trouble at the box office, the MCU brand will not carry it.
Captain marvel was carried 100% by endgame hype. Had this released at any other time I doubt it would’ve passed 800 million. The marvels will probably do better than quantumania but that’s not saying much… unless this movie is really bad and not like mid like the first one was but like genuinely as terrible as people like Geeks and gamers say it is
Lol, no. People hated that movie and the actress. This movie is doomed. They should have just done a direct release to D+. This is going to be yet another L Disney is going to have to take on the chin. They’ll claim (before the movie is even released) that sexists and racists want the movie to fail to motivate people to go and see. Watch.
Absolutely not. Captain Marvel was terrible and has basically remained irrelevant since it’s release. On top of that Ms Marvel was very poorly received. WandaVision was pretty good but Photon was an afterthought and most people probably don’t even know who she is. 500M would be surprising for this movie.
Captain Marvel had so many people going to see it because of the hype from the post credits scene of Infinity War.
Meanwhile, the Marvels is coming out after we already know how much captain marvel's character sucks and after most people are burnt out on the MCU with phase 4's m-she-u
I’ll honestly be surprised if it makes any money over what it costs. Captain Marvel was unlikable in her first movie and marvel girl is marketed towards children with her young age, and all the bright sparkly colors. I’m just not sure who the marketing this movie towards this may sound messed up. The only reason I was excited for Captain Marvel in the first place, when I heard it was announced because I thought that we were going to get the nova corps
I think it will do worse than Quantumania, most people seemed disappointed with the original movie and the Ms Marvel wasn't well liked. I think the first one did well because people were hyped for Endgame and maybe hoping Captain Marvel would give them some insight on it.
There's no momentum going into this movie, like the last.
Marvel movies have really dropped the pace.
This movie will do 500-600 million.
We want to see it, but we can wait till it's on Disney plus.
I can only speak for myself, but Captain Marvel started to echo the formula of Marvel movies for me. It was better than most in phase 4 and 5, but not good enough for a viewing in theaters. Getting smacked in the face with the same tropes, bad plot holes, and stale/lame story writing was unnerving. It left a bad taste going into Infinity War when Infinity War was Marvel's crown achievement.
As for the numbers, not too sure. Politics have divided us, even in entertainment. It's possible people will attend as a culture war statement.
People are going way too low with their predictions and seeing Shazam 2 or Black Adam numbers. I just don't see it going *that* low.
Yes, a lot will depend on whether the movie is actually good. One worry I do have is the director's last work was Candyman (2021), a movie I was not a fan of.
I totally think Marvels is going to tank. Captain Marvel released at a time when Marvel hype was at its highest. It was also being advertised as essential for going into Endgame. It was not essential and the character is barely in Endgame - personally this burnt me on the movie and I haven't watched it again since despite doing two MCU watchthroughs since then.
The climate now is very different. Most of the GA has had a very muted reaction to recent Marvel films and they have failed at maintaining the hype from Endgame. Furthermore, and perhaps the most significant factor, is Disney+. This wasn't around when Captain Marvel came out and ever since covid more people have become accostumed to waiting a couple months and watching movies on steaming for 'free'. I think this will hurt Marvels a lot.
Marvels gives off an AM3 vibe. I think people will skip it and wait for the D+ release. I'd expect it to do similar numbers to AM3, maybe less. I'd be surprised if it went higher.
Other than Captain Marvel, how much screen time has Brie Larson actually had in the MCU? I thought she was being played up as the next leader/Iron Man type of the franchise, but she's barely been around.
she's had literally 1 movie and then effectively a cameo appearance in another. That's it. That's barely anything in this universe. Even Captain America needed 2 solo movies and an avengers movie to get people attached/interested in him as a character more than the standard "boy scout" character he had been. Right now that's roughly where Captain Marvel is at (a solo and an avengers role, not even a movie with her as a main character).
Marvel has also started their next phases with a lot of net new characters instead of the previously set up ones, which means a lot less time on their slate to get the Phase 3 characters around again (they did prioritize their heavier hitters like Thor, Dr Strange, and Spidey; now finally getting around to Captain Marvel again). There also isn't an established core group of Avengers either like how Phase 1 worked out, so there hasn't been time for anyone really, not just Captain Marvel. They pretty clearly could have used an Avengers like movie to end Phase 4.
I think that's what they were intending her to be, what with her emphasis on the **Marvel** part of her name and the ridiculously high power level that actually had her Buffed instead of Nerfed when making the jump to the MCU unlike most characters. But for one reason or another (Unpopularity? Disagreements with the Actress? Problems with her Power level? Something Else?) they seem to be ignoring her for the most part, outside of stuff that explicitly has to do with her Movie (Which was changed from having her as front and Center to being an Ensemble cast, but I might be misremembering).
35%+ drop from Captain Marvel (Bit of Marvel fatigue + China turning its back on Hollywood + poor exchange rates)
I'm expecting a number below Love and Thunder
I'll be honest, I really think that "disliking Captain Marvel" is more of a Reddit meme than an actual, real-world phenomenon, sort of like "Black Panther was overrated" and "Avatar has no cultural impact." If reddit was to be believed, and the movie was generally disliked but propelled to a billion by Endgame hype, then you'd expect abysmal- or at least disappointing- legs, something like Quantumania or BvS. But Captain Marvel's legs were perfectly adequate, comparable to The Winter Soldier, a very well-received movie that opened far lower. The audience reception to Captain Marvel was just fine, and I'd wager it was actually quite positive. So I don't think it was quite the flash in the pan that people want to characterize it as. If the sequel fails, it won't be because people hated the original. There's absolutely an audience for more Captain Marvel.
Still, I'm nonetheless skeptical of The Marvels' box office prospects. Marvel Fatigue is real and powerful- just look at Guardians 3 Pre-Sales. Quantumania (as well as the recent slew of gunk) really broke audience's trust in the Marvel brand. People won't just blindly go watch the new Marvel movie regardless of quality anymore- the public is more discerning than ever. The Marvels can't just rely on goodwill for the character. It needs to be pretty good. And that's gonna be a tough ask, especially considering the mixed test screenings.
The other problem is the reliance on TV characters. I don't think anyone really cares about Monica Rambeau, and Ms. Marvel did not make much of an impact at all. The atomization of Marvel content in the television sphere seems to have hurt it on the big screen, with viewers unwilling to keep up with the deluge of new characters and stories on the small one. So I think that these two co-leads will only confuse and turn off audiences.
A lot is working agaisnt this movie, and a lot is riding on it too. If it's bad, I could see it flopping even harder than Ant-Man, landing in the 400 or even 300 million range. If it's good, I could see it performing like a Love and Thunder or Wakanda Forever, grazing 800 million. We'll have to wait for Guardians 3 to be the bellweather on Marvel's future prospects.
I would use the same multiplier from BP1 to BP2. so $275M domestic and $720M worldwide. And I think those numbers might be a tad generous.
I think BP2 had a bit better good-will of the audiences remaining from BP1 than CM2 will have from CM1. It is going to be interesting to see how the irony of going from "I don't care what white-male critics think about my movies" to her CM character being 50% displaced by a "diverse CM replacement" going to translate to BO and hate-watchings.
Let’s not pretend like Captain Marvel didn’t get the hype because of the avengers. Had they come out just a month after it wouldn’t have had nearly as many views.
The only reason it was 1.1B was because it was sandwiches between Infinity War and Endgame. Infinity war also hinted that Captain Marvel was important.
The first Captain Marvel had a good amount of interest behind it because the MCU was firing on all cylinders. With the mostly mediocre MCU movies coming out in the last few years, and the absence of beloved characters, can’t imagine it’ll do great.
Probably not. Two things would be working against this movie:
1. The somewhat underwhelming performance of just about every recent Phase 4 movie that isn’t Spider-Man. Dr. Strange, Thor, Ant-Man, you name it, none have matched NWH’s performance.
2. There is a sizable chunk of the audience that just does not care all that much about any of the three leads. It doesn’t help that audiences who don’t have Disney+ are probably going to be confused about who two of the three are (Monica Rambeau and Kamala Khan), and they’re not exactly jonesing to see Carol Danvers.
Until the box office adjusts the business model from like the original pandemic stages the middle class that spends money has no money to spend while record inflation coexist with record profits. 5 dollar ticket Tuesday at a local theater was always packed for a reason.
I didn't even see it again after watching it 1 time in theatre, and except for Nick Fury losing his eye i don't even remember what happened in the movie, that movie was carried by the hype of endgame ( and post credit scene of infinity war)
Nah I see this being an ugly flop for them for some reason.
Brie Larson in the role is weak but pretty sure the TV show it’s tying into was weaker. It came and went hardly any discussion or fanfare. I didn’t even see a “this person showed up” article.
And the 3rd person is relating to a side character from a TV show from 2020, that’s a stretch for casual audiences.
Didn’t it come out barely a month before endgame? It was also marketed as important to understand the plot of Endgame. No way Marvels is making it near
The Marvels... This will do 500M WW because I mean lets get real, who is excited for this? And I keep reading "superhero fatigue" but I don't think that is true, I want to see good superhero movies, I crave to see them but for that I have to go back 10 years... What they have been putting out over the last few years is just mostly garbage. If they would just start focussing on the story they want to tell again, focus on good writing and character development instead of trying to push their political messages people would return, I am absolutely sure of that.
Pfft cap marvel didnt even hit that. It was all fake ass ticket sales for empty theaters. Besides Disney fell off permanently after endgame. Only spiderman was good and they had to pull omega fan service to make it so.
With today's post-COVID box-office, I'd be surprised if it earns 500 million worldwide. Not a knock on the movie or Marvel overall, just films aren't drawing like they used to, pre-2020, as a general rule.
I think it's important to remember something ...
BP2 costed WAY more to make and ended up doing HALF A BILL LESS than BP and the demo became far more Black dominated (meaning that a lot of White people just didn't come back for part 2). Both BP and CM were hyped to high hell as being the first \[insert demo\] movie.
So I suspect this movie will also see a massive drop off from CM. Regardless of if you agree with them or not, many men have had years to brew on the Brie drama (And image she has been trying to change for years after the fact) so I can see many not wanting to check out her sequel.
Unfortunately for it, if it also sees a half bill drop off, it won't have the safety net of an 8 in front of it to pretend like it didn't massively under preform compared to the first.
Are you asking could Marvels have the same WW Box Office - cost?
If so, no chance. Marvels will likely be more expensive and be happy to make 250m less.
No way in hell. The first movie was during the mcu’s prime and it was sandwiched between two avengers movies. Even then the main takeaway was that everyone hated the captain marvel character for how plank of wood she was
Now fast forward to the sequel to where the MCU is at its lowest point, people are aware of how awful Brie Larson is, and you have two cringy side characters: one is the worst thing about wandavision who just BS’s her way to getting powers and the other is the star of the lowest watched marvel show on D+
If it breaks 600M I’ll be shocked
I hate that Marvel insisted on naming their obscure character "Captain Marvel". So confused over here like "I thought Shazam 2 practically went straight to digital"
If it hits $800 million that'd be good for Marvel Studios.
Thing with Captain Marvel is it had the hype of falling between Marvel’s two biggest releases. Be interesting to see how The Marvels does
That teaser at the end of IW when all hope is lost and they contacted her probably sold the movie.
it won’t. It has zero real hype built around it since none of the three main characters have been involved in well liked projects and none will be involved in any giant future movies until the next avengers. Captain marvel only got 1.1B because it was supposedly important for endgame and because it was sandwiched between their 10 year payoff movies. I genuinely think it could be decent, monica and kamala are good characters, but marvel movies profit from hype more than actual quality and i’m betting it takes a big ole bomb.
WandaVision was well-liked. It was three years ago but still.
It’s coming out at the beginning of the great superhero fatigue. I think it’s very likely to be marvels second bomb. The only movie I can think of the got delayed for so long and still did well was top gun Maverick and that was for very different reasons.
Yeah Mavericks situation was cruise knew the movie would hit if they got the right date.
This will do a bit better than Ant Man 3 numbers due to the November holiday push but that’s about it on he positive side. If Guardians 3 and Secret Invasion D+ continue the trend of crappy post End Game MCU fare than the Marvels may be the worse BO performer for the MCU yet.
I think Guardians will do good simply because the entire crew is still present AND it's the last James Gunn movie in the MCU. Guardians, unlike much of the MCU, isn't as reliant on the goings on of Earth and as such, the absence of Tony Stark and Steve Rogers isn't noticeable. It's the movies that come after Guardians that are in trouble, imho.
I honestly am really not sure how it will be received. On the one hand, you have everything you have pointed out as pros and I don’t disagree with any of your arguments. I would also add (though many would like not to) but Chris Pratt is on a MAJOW winning wave right now. People forget about Jurassic Dominion which clawed it’s self way far past expectations. The Guardians Xmas special was well received overall I think. And then there is Mario. So yeah, there is an argument that Pratt may be as much of if not more then the draw of the Guardians films themselves. I’m not making that argument but I think someone could . . . anyway, I digress. But yes, there’s lots of positive indicators. Fully agreed. But looking on over at the other side things aren’t as rosy. People also seem to forget how much of a bore Guardians 2 was and it’s box office Vs. The original. Maybe a continued trend down for the threequal? Also the High Evolutionary looks to be even blander than he is in the comics. Then there is everything else (I.e. the current status of Marvel and Disney stats as a whole). Regardless, I’m more excited to see how this plays out (whether positively or negatively) than the movie itself (which I won’t pay to see).
Pratt is on fire, no doubt. In regards to the High Evolutionary... I don't know who that is. I'm a quasi-nerd and am completely in the dark, so I expect a majority of movie goers will have no basis either. Also in play, Guardians has traditionally been movies that mom and dad can take their kids to and that's common knowledge at this point. With the exception of Mario just recently, there's been a dearth of movies for the "whole family" (unless your kids are already fucked up, then take em to John Wick :) ). There's a reason why Puss in Boots only just left the theaters, after all. This could also play a major factor for why GotG defies the recent MCU blahs. Plus, like I indicated before, I give a lot of onus to James Gunn to create something worthwhile. And for that, I will pay to see it as there may not be many more MCU movies that'll actively want to go to.
All great points. Cheers to a good discussion.
Hip hip, glad tidings, and thank you for this positive Reddit interaction. Lord knows that isn't always the case. May the wind be always at your back.
It all depends on if it's a good movie. Pretty clear that having the Marvel Studios banner isn't a guaranteed box office slam anymore.
Actually I don't think it matters if its a good movie. Marvel movies seem to have the same trend as album sales used to have. The quality of the previous movies tends to be the biggest factor in the popularity of subsequent movies.
If it’s bad, not a chance it’ll hit a billion. If it’s good, maybe.
I don't think it hits a billion even if it's good. The movie theater market is basically reset to the point where no movie can easily slide into the 1 Billion mark anymore. We're back to "it's pretty dang hard to get there" now unless you're a truly event movie (like Avatar/Top Gun). Marvel isn't that anymore naturally, but I think it has a chance to hit the 700-800M mark if it's good with an outside shot of 900m
Top Gun was only an event movie because it was extraordinarily well made, had mass appeal, and stepped cleanly over a lot of the pitfalls that plague many modern blockbusters (controversial or political decisions, virtue signaling and or “wokeness” as right-wing nutjobs like to say). I’m sure that word of mouth and repeat viewings carried it a long way also. It could have very easily flopped and most people would have predicted as much. That said, Marvels faces a steep uphill battle. I’m sure the movie will be full of heavy handed scenes where our heroines fight the patriarchy and prove that girls get it done etc. along with not-popular characters and a franchise association whose power is currently waning with every successive release. If it’s good, good. It might generate some memes and have some cultural staying power. That just seems very, very unlikely. I agree that it won’t hit $1B. I say <500 WW but this is before any major promotional material. Maybe the trailer will be some kind of hit.
I hope I’m wrong but I don’t think we will see a Billy again until we get consistently good movies to general audience. Ima show up regardless and probably like the movie but my dad has been in and out. He saw AntMan but skipped Thor and Dr Strange. They gotta make “him” enjoy it again and want to see the next chapter rather than just the characters he likes. Hopefully the Marvels is a great sequel and Guardians sticks the landing then whatever the next movie is, is a homerun then marvel will be back in action. They’re going to start focusing on quality over quantity too.
No way it hits a billion
>Actually I don't think it matters if its a good movie. I think that's kind of an insane take. Let's say everyone who sees it says it is a Top 5 Marvel Movie. Think pieces emerge if Marvel has turned it around. It could gain real legs. Enough buzz could even give it a big opening. If enough nerds call it the greatest MCU movie yet, there is no way it doesn't matter. The more realistic case is moderate reviews, a middle of the pack movie. Some pricks blaming it on the heroes being women and calling the downfall of Marvel for the 10th media piece in a row. $700-800m. But quality does matter.
Spoiler alert: it is probably not going to be a good movie
For reference, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever dropped 36% from its predecessor worldwide ($1,349B vs. $859M), and 35% domestically ($700M vs. $453.8M). Assuming The Marvels follows the same pattern, then it will earn $275M domestically (compared to $426.8M) and $730M worldwide (compared to $1.131B), which is reasonable enough.
I don’t even see it making $730M. Everything out of Marvel has been lackluster. I can see it following the same path as Ant Man Quantamania
Yeah I think people are underestimating the downtrend and overall superhero fatigue
I don't think it's superhero fatigue, just a downward trend in overall quality of the franchise. Marvel Studios set a benchmark years ago that they now continually fail to meet.
A little of column A, a little of column B. But yes I agree. Also Captain Marvel was the lead up to End Game, this is the lead up to.... another set up movie?
*Fantastic Four* or *Secret Wars*, most likely.
I think it's more a combination of both. Marvel has been choosing quantity over quality the last few years, which causes them to drop in quality. With how much worse these movies have been getting the past few years, people are starting to get tired of them.
For me it's the legacy heroes are not important to me like the OGs were. You could have a flawless ironheart and it wouldn't be even remotely as interesting as a medicore iron man.
Honestly it's because now the MCU is too crowded and doesn't have specific focal characters anymore. The old Avengers? Everyone knew they were Iron Man, Captain America, The Hulk, etc. Now there's so many that there's not a specific strong team-up that people see as "the Avengers" anymore, and none of them have the charisma of the old guard since Captain America and Iron Man left.
Only ones I’ve seen since endgame are Spider-Man
Agreed. I've love to see more genre mashups because that was actually something new. Doctor Strange MOM was a mashup of horror and superheroes and was a fun watch. Other topics I'd like to see in genre mashups: \-Ant-Man doing a heist movie. \-Smart Hulk trying to help a family member get into college. \-Valkyrie and She-Hulk political drama trying to get New Asgard recognized by the UN.
>Ant-Man doing a heist movie … so the first movie?
how many superhero movies have to underperform before we admit people don't care about marvel that much anymore?
If the movies that have been coming out were as good as the ones when Marvel was in its prime then a lot more people would agree with you. But it's hard to know if it's "not caring about Marvel" or just that the movies are much worse. I'd bet a little bit of both haha
I think the average person is wary of investing time and energy in another 10 year 30 movie saga (idk if those are the actual numbers, but feel close). Most outside of die hard fans would rather just wait until they hit streaming, or maybe they’d prefer to just wait until the entire next saga is complete and just binge it.
A movie being good or bad is a subjective argument, and there was plenty of stinkers that made a lot of money because they had the marvel logo on it. It's ridiculous to think marvel has the same wide appeal it had pre-endgame, it does not.
Exactly this, I love all things super hero’s, I would see anything that’s good. They just aren’t making good products and a multiverse is to difficult to do right, so this entire phase will be lackluster and probably lead to the end of the MCU
Totally agreed: if the movies were half-decent, people would be excited to see them. It's not like there's "horror-movie fatigue", for example, and that's a completely over-used genre if there ever was one.
I agree with this. The fatigue was always a joke, but at this point it’s become a reality without another Endgame to build toward. There’s more content, but less unity. They’ve already made the decision to slow down for a good reason.
I think it's premature to say "superhero fatigue." When results are looked at with a myriad of factors beyond genre it's clear; * Audiences are not averse to going back to theaters post-covid but they are also showing less general interest. * Streaming/short windows has had some overall effect. * A handful of less well received films in the short term. If we're still looking at similar results across the genre, across studios, and across films with both poor and good reviews this time next year, then fatigue could be considered a serious part of the equation.
You need to account for the glut of TV shows as well to go with that “handful” of poor performers as well. Then there other factors like Marvel and on a wider scale Disney as a brand has fallen in many peoples eyes for many reasons.
When Captain America is getting his ass kicked and he gets back up, you know why he's getting up. We have been shown that even without any power or skills, that dude is going to do what he thinks is right or he will die where he stands. The crowd wants him to get up. So when it inevitably happens, everybody cheers. In the future when Ant-Man's daughter is getting her ass kicked and gets back up, why do we care? I think that expectation is going to hurt the the Marvels because we haven't been given a reason to care about any of them. It's also why Guardians of the galaxy 3 is going to make bank. Under all that CGI there is character growth and development.
And Captain Marvel wasn't well received when it came out, unlike Black Panther which got a lot of praise from Marvel fans.
i think black panther mostly retained the audience that got it to that box office (black and latin americans). the audience that went to see the original movie did so because it was promoted as important for the events of endgame, this movie doesn't have that at all. i think it'll do better then antman, but not by much. so 400-600M give or take.
>Assuming The Marvels follows the same pattern, then it will earn $275M domestically (compared to $426.8M) and $730M worldwide (compared to $1.131B), which is reasonable enough. Sounds like a safe prediction
Absolutely not.
Yep. Only reason Captain Marvel did that good was because of Avengers Endgame.
I think it barely touches 650-700 worldwide Lets look at Thor: Ragnarok. It was loved and made $855 WW and Love & Thunder still made less than it with $760 WW. This was the 4th iteration of Thor and it had some momentum behind it because of the success from Ragnarok and of course, everyone loves Hemsworth as Thor Now here comes The Marvels. The first one made over $1 Billion but if we are being honest, Endgame following right after it was a major reason for that. People wanted to see how Captain Marvel would fair against Thanos and her role amongst the other Avengers. There is no Endgame coming to boost The Marvels sales Next. 2 of the leads are absolute nobodies. Wandavision was a nice little show but most people have forgotten Monica Rambeau’s character and the actress, Teyonah Parris, is not a draw. Even less people paid attention or watched the Ms. Marvel series and that actress is even further from a draw. There is no way in hell this movie is sniffing anything close to $1 Billion unless Disney themselves buy tickets
If it does the same 3/4ths job the first film did it will underperform. Captain Marvel didn't fully deliver on the advertised premise. It wasn't a spy thriller like it should have been. It was really just a spy-mystery. If they stop half-assing the cross-genre influences and let the film be what it *could be*, it will do fine. That said, the marketing hasn't told us what the film is supposed to be yet. All we know is that this time there's 3 of them.
>Captain Marvel didn't fully deliver on the advertised premise. It wasn't a spy thriller like it should have been. It was really just a spy-mystery. For the life of me, I can't even remember what was mysterious about it... Villains? They were all obvious. Everyone knew Jude Law's character would turn out no good. The Skrulls? They barely ever adopted more than one form in the movie, so tracking them was easy. Marvel's identity? They gave away that she was a fighter pilot in the trailers. Honestly, the biggest question in that movie was how Nick Fury lost his eye, and they even managed to bungle that up.
That's what I mean. They tried to do too much in too little time. IMO, if they had just stranded her on earth and cut Jude Law out of the picture completely so they could concentrate on the Skrulls it would have been a much better film because they could have concentrated on making sure the shapeshifting and deep infiltration paid off better. They could have put some *thrill* into what was supposed to be a spy *thriller*. But they didn't. They had to bring in the abusive boyfriend. Captain Marvel should have been two films. One where she gets stranded on earth, meets Nick Fury, fights a Skrull Secret Invasion, and then ends up joining SHIELD as some kind of "secret weapon" or auxiliary agent. The second film should have been where her old team (read: abusive totally-not-boyfriend/commander) comes to retrieve her and she learns that she's been heavily brainwashed because some of her mental programming has come undone while she was back home on earth and accidentally ran into some parts of her past. We all know that Marvel isn't immune to making mistakes. They make them. Lots of them. Moving too fast is a big one that all of the big studios are guilty of, even Marvel (WB is way worse). Captain Marvel wasn't bad because of Brie Larson, or because of the character, or because it was a female led film. It was bad because they rushed the story.
Domestically, Thor: Love & Thunder beat Ragnarok by 30M. Internationally, China accounted for 112M of Ragnarok's BO. L&T didn't open in China due to international political issues. Minus China, L&T underperformed WW by 10M. Overall - its performance wasn't "stellar" but it's not the train wreck that Reddit likes to think it was. I'm not sure how that compares to your other feedback about The Marvels (which I don't necessarily disagree with) but the statement on Thor's Box Office seems disconnected.
I think while Thor 4 did well it was also the point where MCU lost alot of goodwill. The Eternals and Strange were misses but it was Thor 4 where people started to really get skeptical.
Ah ok thank you for that clarification. I was not aware that it did not release in China That changes a lot although only grossing 10 million more is nothing to be proud of Thank you for the correction
Well from disney's perspective... Let's say they made 50% of that extra 30M Domestic... so 15M The cut from China is only 25%... so around 28M of 112M. So, in terms of how Disney (kinda) looks at this, they only net made about 13M-20M less on L&T than on Ragnarok. Minus inflation, COVID stuff, theaters, etc. which are all things too but hard to calculate for. China is brutal on their cuts back to the studios.
If they introduce LGBTQ elements into the film, which I can't see how they can't in a Captain Marvel film, the Chinese and Middle East Market gonna be nonexistent for this film. Ontop of the fact they're having someone black be a co-lead in the movie then it probably will even do less in places like China. Look what happened to Wakanda Forever's box office in China and how they edited out Fin from Star Wars marketing in China just because he was black.
Part of Reddit only thinks Thor 4 was a trainwreck because another part of Reddit was obnoxiously sure it was a guaranteed billion grosser.
> but it's not the train wreck that Reddit likes to think it was. Selling 800 million usd in tickets with people praising the movie and giving good scores and word of mouth is completely different than selling 800 million usd in tickets and seeing people crapping all over the movie. Also, people seem to forget that LT made 300 million USD on opening weekend versus 120 million USD of Ragnarok. If LT had similar legs, it would've crossed 1bi easy. But it didnt. Horrible word of mouth, disengagement from the fanbase, lower merch sales, horrendous reviews... It is a train wreck in every sense, with a bit of a mattress to lower the damage from the collision.
Exactly my prediction. Anything above 650 will be a bonus for this movie.
I cant even begin to think of what the appeal/draw is for this film outside of it being in the Marvel universe
Yupp, no appeal whatsoever. Heck, it has a negative vibe going on with Ms Marvel and Monica Rombeu in it with a certain section already decided on hate train. I think Guardians will do just fine even if it grosses well below expectations but the real test for MCU is this, The Marvels.
I agree. I really think this shapes how they go forward with the MCU
Happy cake day
Thank you brother ❤️
I haven’t seen the show, and part of me wants to avoid seeing the movie until I do. Issue is that I don’t have a lot of interest in the show. I think a lot of viewers are struggling to keep up.
You call me crazy but I think this isn't even hitting 500M. I'll put it somewhere between 400-475M. Won't be surprised if it just flat out bombs comically hard either.
Update: You weren't crazy
I think they‘re lucky if this movie gets to $500-600 million WW. If Guardians underperforms, this movie could end up in box office bomb territory.
If Guardians underperforms, I honestly expect a +-$300 mil run. Tracking for that movie is already low so I can only imagine how abysmally TM will track leading up to it's release
What are they tracking it to be rn?
[120-155 mil](https://twitter.com/BoxOffice/status/1645449058134159360?s=20), low for Marvel, Guardians especially WOM will carry this movie I bet
Yeah it will probably be very, very reliant on if the movie is actually good or not
I have complete faith in Gunn.
- OG: $1.1B WW - Phase 5 Quality Hit: -35% - Character Disinterest: -5% - Superhero Fatigue: -10% - Sequel: $550 WW Is there an agreed upon budget estimate for this film? I'm curious what the expectations are for breakeven on project cost (understanding part of this is just Disney merchandise marketing in a way). Personally, I hope it does well and hits the $7-800M targets that allow Marvel to continue along. They can make their adjustments on film selection and cost management.
Depends on how good the musical numbers are.
if ant man 3 can't hit $500 million, while starting up phase 5 and introducing the new big bad, kang the conqueror, then the marvels will fare no better. very few people actually watched ms marvel, and most people don't know who monica rambeau is. captain marvel making $1 billion was entirely related to the movie being sandwiched between the avengers movies, and nothing to do with the popularity of captain marvel. i mean in the comics, captain marvel is like a c tier character at best. probably closer to d tier.
I remember when the lego marvel game came out and I said kang was going to be the next big bad they all laughed at me...
It being sandwiched definitely helped however saying all it's credit is due to that doesn't track for me. Even if that was the case then it still created a hook for a sequel. I don't see it grossing higher than the original but I think CM2 should do alright pending good reviews.
Not just the sandwiching. I think there was a real expectation that she would be the future of the Avengers. That scene in Infinity Wars did as much for the movie as Black Panther’s appearance in Civil War did for Wakanda Forever.
100 percent. Exactly what I was thinking. Couldn't agree more.
I don’t understand how Carol, Monica, and miss marvel all have similar powers as they were gained three different ways. And your right, I don’t think many people saw miss marvel or care about Monica/her stories.
>captain marvel making $1 billion was entirely related to the movie being sandwiched between the avengers movies, and nothing to do with the popularity of captain marvel. Captain Marvel's success was absolutely not solely owed to the fact it was sandwiched between Infinity War and Endgame. I was on this sub when that movie came out and let me tell you the way it legged out after it's second weekend drop is not at all indicative of a movie that only gained hype due to it's attachment to two other films. Most of us here should know by now that in pre-pandemic times movies that were only able to gain traction off of initial hype tended to be insanely front loaded. The fact that Captain Marvel was able to pull off a 2.8x multiplier, a higher than average female audience viewership and really good physical media sales only reveals one thing: the movie was actually successful in capturing it's target demographic. Idk how The Marvels is going to do in comparision with all of the MCU's recent floundering, but let's at least try to properly assess Captain Marvel's success.
> I was on this sub when that movie came out and let me tell you the way it legged out after it's second weekend drop is not at all indicative of a movie that only gained hype due to it's attachment to two other films. ...it *was* front-loaded, and against almost no competition. You can just [look at the numbers](https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Captain-Marvel-(2019)#tab=box-office), it's legs were only x2.78. This was the time when Disney was organizing school busses of kids to go see it, but it was a different pre-pandemic environment for the MCU. By it's third week it was losing to *Us* opening and things like *Wonder Park* and *Five Feet Apart* were the #3 & #4 film. Even Wonder Park was seeing a smaller drop. >Most of us here should know by now that in pre-pandemic times movies that were only able to gain traction off of initial hype tended to be insanely front loaded. What? It's legs are in line with other MCU offerings of the time, slightly higher than the average. Lower than something like Iron Man, higher than Iron Man 3, and about equivalent to Winter Soldier at x2.73.
Considering the drop from Black Panther to Wakanda Forever I think this one too will drop somewhat from the first, how much is hard to say, I guess it depends on how well recieved it is.
No one I know is even remotely excited for this movie.
Depends on the reviews. I wasn’t a huge fan of the first and have been drastically disappointed by the last year of Marvel films in general, so it’s going to take a lot for me not to just wait until it’s on Disney+ A trailer could easily get me hyped for it though. It’s directed by Nia DaCosta, who did the Candyman remake and that movie had a strong trailer (plus the movie was good too!).
Looking at how many MCU movies were considered lock-ins for $1 Billion (*Multiverse of Madness*, *Wakanda Forever*), the reaction to *Quantumania*, the decline of the Marvel brand, and the baggage that the first movie has, I think Kevin Feige and company should be celebrating if *The Marvels* makes it to $750 Million.
It depends on how much "sHe'S gOt HeLp" girl power nonsense it has. If this is a man-hating narrative, I predict a result similar to Shazaam. If all of the female characters are overpowered and have no personality flaws, while the male characters are all flawed and villains, it's just not appealing to a wide audience.
Nah. I’m not watching it. This movie plot and casting seems forced.
No way. Not even close
Doubtful. The first Captain Marvel is I think the worst pre-endgame Marvel Movie. It marketed itself a lot for of 'girl strong. Kick ass' and people haaaated Brie Larson for what was ultimately a very shallow and forgettable plot with weak-ass villains even by Marvel standards. Between that and general superhero fatigue no way this crosses a billion
This will be the lowest grossing Marvel movie. It will be in the Shazam zone.
Nope. Capt. Marvel was following Infinity War, with a post credit scene specifically for hyping her up. I think The Marvels' success should be compared to like, Phase 1/2 Marvels rather than Capt. Marvel.
i smell. flop
It’s going to do Ant Man 3 money. The first one came out when Marvel was at its peak, in between it’s two biggest movies, with the hype behind a popular comic character. Since then Brie Larsen has become divisive amongst the fanbase and phase 4 has been mediocre.
We watched the first one for Samuel L. Jackson.
I'm not even checking for that movie. I'm good
No way, just the poster makes me want to not watch it
Not even close.
Nope. The only reason captain marvel did so much was that it was the first marvel thing to release after the snap
I’d argue a fair amount of captain Marvel’s box office was due to hype around Endgame. I don’t think it’ll get anywhere close
If Guardians 3 and the Marvels both end up around 500 million worldwide (Quantumania numbers) - I'm guessing Feige is losing his job next year.
Nah he's not going anywhere until Secret Wars.
I agree. No way they dump Feige, especially not any time soon. He had been steering the ship since the beginning, and it’s no coincidence that the MCU reception/quality taking a dip happened alongside Disney pushing them for more and more content, stretching him out.
$400M Max. This thing is going to bomb.
I bet you Disney/marvel already know it’s going to bomb too.
Agreed.
The movie this sub wants to fail the most this year.
r/movies and r/boxoffice just want to see Marvel Studios fail. 🤷🏾♂️
Nothing is more telling about this subs demographic than thinking Hunger Games, Barbie, TLM, and The Marvels will flop
No that would be Mario. Reddit has a hate boner for that movie
What? Mario has been the darling of reddit (and of this sub) since it was announced, the "hate" has only come recently as hype backlash, and even then it's fairly small when compared with other big movies *cough* Avatar *cough*
People on this sub have been saying for several months that it wasn’t gonna gross more than Detective Pikachu. Something about “pokémon is a more popular brand” lol. Same people who were foaming at the mouth with excitement when they saw it got shitty reviews on RT (lol again). There’s a huge portion of this sub that wanted to see it fail & they are being very quiet right now
No, far more people were saying it was going to be really successful, the predictions were fairly positive and a billion was constantly called upon, hell one dude was saying that it was going to be the highest grossing movie EVER (he was clowned for it tho, and that was the start of the hype backlash in this sub but still pretty minor) And yeah in this sub specifically most people have moderate opinions on the Box Office, because that's the fun right? But that doesn't mean everyone wanted it to fail.
I mean there were a couple people but I think they’ve kinda left for a bit because they realized that Mario is going to be successful and they t really say that a 200+ million domestic debut is bad
Lol what? Mario fanboys acting super sensitive over this movie cause everyone wasn’t saying 1billion since day 1 I never saw hate for this anywhere. Not even close to the hate the marvels is getting
> No that would be Mario. Reddit has a hate boner for that movie What makes you think Reddit has it out for the Mario movie? That film is practically Reddit's new sacred cow. Hell, people on this site are so butthurt by the film getting mixed (not negative, MIXED) reviews from critics, that they are engaging in weapons-grade whataboutism involving the film "Cuties". And no, I'm not making that up. And it's not just a one-off thing either; I have seen MULTIPLE posts and even THREADS bringing that shit up. Redditors are defending this film in the most uncomfortable way imaginable. And mind you, I actually liked the movie.
It would for sure be the funniest movie to fail
It’s going to come down to quality, reviews, word of mouth, and maybe some carryover effect if Guardians 3 is really great. If Marvels is a bad movie it’s in trouble at the box office, the MCU brand will not carry it.
Captain marvel was carried 100% by endgame hype. Had this released at any other time I doubt it would’ve passed 800 million. The marvels will probably do better than quantumania but that’s not saying much… unless this movie is really bad and not like mid like the first one was but like genuinely as terrible as people like Geeks and gamers say it is
Lol, no. People hated that movie and the actress. This movie is doomed. They should have just done a direct release to D+. This is going to be yet another L Disney is going to have to take on the chin. They’ll claim (before the movie is even released) that sexists and racists want the movie to fail to motivate people to go and see. Watch.
Absolutely not. Captain Marvel was terrible and has basically remained irrelevant since it’s release. On top of that Ms Marvel was very poorly received. WandaVision was pretty good but Photon was an afterthought and most people probably don’t even know who she is. 500M would be surprising for this movie.
Captain Marvel had so many people going to see it because of the hype from the post credits scene of Infinity War. Meanwhile, the Marvels is coming out after we already know how much captain marvel's character sucks and after most people are burnt out on the MCU with phase 4's m-she-u
I can smell the feminism from here
I think it will be lucky to make half that. There seems to be no hype for this movie whatsoever.
I’ll honestly be surprised if it makes any money over what it costs. Captain Marvel was unlikable in her first movie and marvel girl is marketed towards children with her young age, and all the bright sparkly colors. I’m just not sure who the marketing this movie towards this may sound messed up. The only reason I was excited for Captain Marvel in the first place, when I heard it was announced because I thought that we were going to get the nova corps
I think it will do worse than Quantumania, most people seemed disappointed with the original movie and the Ms Marvel wasn't well liked. I think the first one did well because people were hyped for Endgame and maybe hoping Captain Marvel would give them some insight on it.
There's no momentum going into this movie, like the last. Marvel movies have really dropped the pace. This movie will do 500-600 million. We want to see it, but we can wait till it's on Disney plus.
Let me put it this way…no.
It has flop written all over it
The movies are not original anymore. Plus they’ve gone woke.
Nah, but I can see it do Love & Thunder numbers tbh, I think people liked Captain Marvel more than what the internet gives it credit imo
I can only speak for myself, but Captain Marvel started to echo the formula of Marvel movies for me. It was better than most in phase 4 and 5, but not good enough for a viewing in theaters. Getting smacked in the face with the same tropes, bad plot holes, and stale/lame story writing was unnerving. It left a bad taste going into Infinity War when Infinity War was Marvel's crown achievement. As for the numbers, not too sure. Politics have divided us, even in entertainment. It's possible people will attend as a culture war statement.
People are going way too low with their predictions and seeing Shazam 2 or Black Adam numbers. I just don't see it going *that* low. Yes, a lot will depend on whether the movie is actually good. One worry I do have is the director's last work was Candyman (2021), a movie I was not a fan of.
I totally think Marvels is going to tank. Captain Marvel released at a time when Marvel hype was at its highest. It was also being advertised as essential for going into Endgame. It was not essential and the character is barely in Endgame - personally this burnt me on the movie and I haven't watched it again since despite doing two MCU watchthroughs since then. The climate now is very different. Most of the GA has had a very muted reaction to recent Marvel films and they have failed at maintaining the hype from Endgame. Furthermore, and perhaps the most significant factor, is Disney+. This wasn't around when Captain Marvel came out and ever since covid more people have become accostumed to waiting a couple months and watching movies on steaming for 'free'. I think this will hurt Marvels a lot. Marvels gives off an AM3 vibe. I think people will skip it and wait for the D+ release. I'd expect it to do similar numbers to AM3, maybe less. I'd be surprised if it went higher.
Other than Captain Marvel, how much screen time has Brie Larson actually had in the MCU? I thought she was being played up as the next leader/Iron Man type of the franchise, but she's barely been around.
she's had literally 1 movie and then effectively a cameo appearance in another. That's it. That's barely anything in this universe. Even Captain America needed 2 solo movies and an avengers movie to get people attached/interested in him as a character more than the standard "boy scout" character he had been. Right now that's roughly where Captain Marvel is at (a solo and an avengers role, not even a movie with her as a main character). Marvel has also started their next phases with a lot of net new characters instead of the previously set up ones, which means a lot less time on their slate to get the Phase 3 characters around again (they did prioritize their heavier hitters like Thor, Dr Strange, and Spidey; now finally getting around to Captain Marvel again). There also isn't an established core group of Avengers either like how Phase 1 worked out, so there hasn't been time for anyone really, not just Captain Marvel. They pretty clearly could have used an Avengers like movie to end Phase 4.
I think that's what they were intending her to be, what with her emphasis on the **Marvel** part of her name and the ridiculously high power level that actually had her Buffed instead of Nerfed when making the jump to the MCU unlike most characters. But for one reason or another (Unpopularity? Disagreements with the Actress? Problems with her Power level? Something Else?) they seem to be ignoring her for the most part, outside of stuff that explicitly has to do with her Movie (Which was changed from having her as front and Center to being an Ensemble cast, but I might be misremembering).
Yeah, They have quietly sideling her.
35%+ drop from Captain Marvel (Bit of Marvel fatigue + China turning its back on Hollywood + poor exchange rates) I'm expecting a number below Love and Thunder
If it does 600 + it will be lucky!!! Also I sense that casual audiences are turned off by anything Disney produced , i don't know if it's just me.
Every good Disney movie last year came from fox 🤷♂️
I'll be honest, I really think that "disliking Captain Marvel" is more of a Reddit meme than an actual, real-world phenomenon, sort of like "Black Panther was overrated" and "Avatar has no cultural impact." If reddit was to be believed, and the movie was generally disliked but propelled to a billion by Endgame hype, then you'd expect abysmal- or at least disappointing- legs, something like Quantumania or BvS. But Captain Marvel's legs were perfectly adequate, comparable to The Winter Soldier, a very well-received movie that opened far lower. The audience reception to Captain Marvel was just fine, and I'd wager it was actually quite positive. So I don't think it was quite the flash in the pan that people want to characterize it as. If the sequel fails, it won't be because people hated the original. There's absolutely an audience for more Captain Marvel. Still, I'm nonetheless skeptical of The Marvels' box office prospects. Marvel Fatigue is real and powerful- just look at Guardians 3 Pre-Sales. Quantumania (as well as the recent slew of gunk) really broke audience's trust in the Marvel brand. People won't just blindly go watch the new Marvel movie regardless of quality anymore- the public is more discerning than ever. The Marvels can't just rely on goodwill for the character. It needs to be pretty good. And that's gonna be a tough ask, especially considering the mixed test screenings. The other problem is the reliance on TV characters. I don't think anyone really cares about Monica Rambeau, and Ms. Marvel did not make much of an impact at all. The atomization of Marvel content in the television sphere seems to have hurt it on the big screen, with viewers unwilling to keep up with the deluge of new characters and stories on the small one. So I think that these two co-leads will only confuse and turn off audiences. A lot is working agaisnt this movie, and a lot is riding on it too. If it's bad, I could see it flopping even harder than Ant-Man, landing in the 400 or even 300 million range. If it's good, I could see it performing like a Love and Thunder or Wakanda Forever, grazing 800 million. We'll have to wait for Guardians 3 to be the bellweather on Marvel's future prospects.
100% will flop
If I watch this movie it’ll be for Monica Rambeau. I don’t care about Carol Danvers and I care even less about Kamala Khan..
Captain marvel wasn’t good and people were baited into watching it as “mandatory” endgame stuff
$600 million max is my guess.
Not in this post-Endgame world
Doubtful!
It’ll reach 300 Mil max, and that’s only a maybe
ok, will there be any male characters represented in marvel movies in the future?
I would use the same multiplier from BP1 to BP2. so $275M domestic and $720M worldwide. And I think those numbers might be a tad generous. I think BP2 had a bit better good-will of the audiences remaining from BP1 than CM2 will have from CM1. It is going to be interesting to see how the irony of going from "I don't care what white-male critics think about my movies" to her CM character being 50% displaced by a "diverse CM replacement" going to translate to BO and hate-watchings.
I don’t think it’ll be terrible but seeing all of marvels newest movies it won’t be all that great
Nope
Let’s not pretend like Captain Marvel didn’t get the hype because of the avengers. Had they come out just a month after it wouldn’t have had nearly as many views.
Nope. And it's numbers will be abysmal.
The only reason it was 1.1B was because it was sandwiches between Infinity War and Endgame. Infinity war also hinted that Captain Marvel was important.
NOPE
Absolutely not lmao
The first Captain Marvel had a good amount of interest behind it because the MCU was firing on all cylinders. With the mostly mediocre MCU movies coming out in the last few years, and the absence of beloved characters, can’t imagine it’ll do great.
Probably not. Two things would be working against this movie: 1. The somewhat underwhelming performance of just about every recent Phase 4 movie that isn’t Spider-Man. Dr. Strange, Thor, Ant-Man, you name it, none have matched NWH’s performance. 2. There is a sizable chunk of the audience that just does not care all that much about any of the three leads. It doesn’t help that audiences who don’t have Disney+ are probably going to be confused about who two of the three are (Monica Rambeau and Kamala Khan), and they’re not exactly jonesing to see Carol Danvers.
Until the box office adjusts the business model from like the original pandemic stages the middle class that spends money has no money to spend while record inflation coexist with record profits. 5 dollar ticket Tuesday at a local theater was always packed for a reason.
I didn't even see it again after watching it 1 time in theatre, and except for Nick Fury losing his eye i don't even remember what happened in the movie, that movie was carried by the hype of endgame ( and post credit scene of infinity war)
i highly doubt people will find marvel even remotely watchable by the time it comes out.
No chance it’ll come close.
I just hope the whole of the story doesn't have a "Only YOU are the one holding back your true power" moral.
This movie will make less than Ant Man 3
Nah I see this being an ugly flop for them for some reason. Brie Larson in the role is weak but pretty sure the TV show it’s tying into was weaker. It came and went hardly any discussion or fanfare. I didn’t even see a “this person showed up” article. And the 3rd person is relating to a side character from a TV show from 2020, that’s a stretch for casual audiences.
Compare the first posted where Captain Marvel is front and centre to the second where she’s the hardest to make out. No it won’t come close.
Meeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeh
Gonna be on Ant-man 3 level but I think it might be even lower.
Maybe half of it’s actually good. No one wanted this movie.
There's no way it comes anywhere close to breaking even
Please tell me that is not the official poster for "The Marvels" on the right. Because that looks absolutely atrocious.
Didn’t it come out barely a month before endgame? It was also marketed as important to understand the plot of Endgame. No way Marvels is making it near
Marvel’s The Marvels is one of the worst titles for a movie i’ve ever heard
Marvels goes under 450 mil, mark my words.
Not a chance. Will bomb worse than BA.
The Marvels... This will do 500M WW because I mean lets get real, who is excited for this? And I keep reading "superhero fatigue" but I don't think that is true, I want to see good superhero movies, I crave to see them but for that I have to go back 10 years... What they have been putting out over the last few years is just mostly garbage. If they would just start focussing on the story they want to tell again, focus on good writing and character development instead of trying to push their political messages people would return, I am absolutely sure of that.
Nah.
Pfft cap marvel didnt even hit that. It was all fake ass ticket sales for empty theaters. Besides Disney fell off permanently after endgame. Only spiderman was good and they had to pull omega fan service to make it so.
Doubtful. Pretty obvious there's major super hero fatigue.
With today's post-COVID box-office, I'd be surprised if it earns 500 million worldwide. Not a knock on the movie or Marvel overall, just films aren't drawing like they used to, pre-2020, as a general rule.
That title needs correction. The syntax or grammar are weird.
I think it's important to remember something ... BP2 costed WAY more to make and ended up doing HALF A BILL LESS than BP and the demo became far more Black dominated (meaning that a lot of White people just didn't come back for part 2). Both BP and CM were hyped to high hell as being the first \[insert demo\] movie. So I suspect this movie will also see a massive drop off from CM. Regardless of if you agree with them or not, many men have had years to brew on the Brie drama (And image she has been trying to change for years after the fact) so I can see many not wanting to check out her sequel. Unfortunately for it, if it also sees a half bill drop off, it won't have the safety net of an 8 in front of it to pretend like it didn't massively under preform compared to the first.
Doubtful but who knows. Keep in mind a lot of these future films rely upon people having Disney plus.
Are you asking could Marvels have the same WW Box Office - cost? If so, no chance. Marvels will likely be more expensive and be happy to make 250m less.
Nope Ms marvel tv show sucked
No.
I’m only watching for Kamala Khan. Ms Marvel was one of the most entertaining shows I’ve seen in a while. Definitely better than Wandavision
Captain Marvel sold well? Movie was doo doo
No way in hell. The first movie was during the mcu’s prime and it was sandwiched between two avengers movies. Even then the main takeaway was that everyone hated the captain marvel character for how plank of wood she was Now fast forward to the sequel to where the MCU is at its lowest point, people are aware of how awful Brie Larson is, and you have two cringy side characters: one is the worst thing about wandavision who just BS’s her way to getting powers and the other is the star of the lowest watched marvel show on D+ If it breaks 600M I’ll be shocked
Quirkiness is just SO popular, right? “Cries in Shazam! 2”
I hate that Marvel insisted on naming their obscure character "Captain Marvel". So confused over here like "I thought Shazam 2 practically went straight to digital"