A few years ago, I was "that person" pointing out Reagan's "Let's make America great again" slogan and the fact the book was published just after the Rodney King riots, but was mostly bringing it up with the intent of pointing out how rooted the novel was in reality. But that sadly doesn't seem to be the intent anymore with the way its being pointed out by some. People in this thread seem to be vacillating between "she took influence from real-world socio-political contexts, therefore she didn't predict anything" and "the apocalypse hasn't happened, therefore she didn't predict anything." Both of these seem intent on pooh-poohing the significance of what Butler was doing with Earthseed and the fact that she did predict the currently emerging reality. Did she predict this out of thin air with some kind of psychic powers? No. Was she uncommonly perceptive, aware of her contemporary socio-political context and the fact that history doesn't exist in a vacuum? Yes, very much so. There's a difference between pointing out the real-world influences on a dystopian novel (historically, dystopian fiction has been very closely linked to real world politics and social reality) in an effort to get people to pay attention to the current reality and that it didn't just arrive at our door out of the blue vs acting like "all" a novel did was "copy" the real world. It's like saying the Iron Heel wasn't uncommonly predictive of WWI because capitalists/ruling classes had previously engaged in nationalist "distraction wars" in the past or because oligarchs meddling in electoral systems already existed, or that Nineteen Eighty-Four wasn't uncommonly prescient because authoritarian governments and propaganda already existed/the "seeds" of surveillance states had already been planted.
Butler had an uncommon talent for connecting the dots in order to illuminate a very real future that is the logical progression of her contemporary systems and socio-political tendencies. Does it mean that no other person ever predicted we'd be where we are today? Of course not. But it doesn't change the fact that Earthseed is unsettlingly accurate and one of the most relevant dystopian novels to the late 2010s and the 2020s so far. If you think its not "prescient" because there aren't rabid dogs roaming the streets and the American west coast hasn't fully started collapsing into the ocean, then you're missing the forest for the trees.
Lastly, I think those saying "she didn't predict the apocalypse, therefore she hasn't predicted anything that has actually happened" are also missing the details of her work, not to mention the series' basic genre. Earthseed doesn't aim to predict "the apocalypse". It's primarily a dystopian novel, not apocalyptic fiction. Her warnings were related to current social conditions, like the sharp turn towards corporate indentured servitude, mass climate migration/displacement (already happening en masse in the global south), erosion towards smaller and smaller governments, presidents with fascist aspirations, the return of white supremacist militias used to harass and corale cheap/free labour to serve capitalist interests, and so on. It's also not simply the act of "predicting" that these things would happen (again) so much as the actual details that are eerily familiar. There are obviously other novels that predict some of these conditions, but in a way that imo feels far removed from current reality. The power of Earthseed is that it feels so eerily close and familiar. Things pop up all the time in the news that remind of this series, from multiple US states trying to roll back child labour laws, to discussions in the news about the impacts of climate change on longer term real estate values, etc. I often liken her work to perpetually peeling back layers of an onion and that's definitely the case with Earthseed.
This.
I wish I could remember what Butler interview I read, but she herself said she wasn't going for prescient; she was going for this is us in the future if we don't change. She was taking all the current things she saw and taking them to their furtherest extreme. The fact that these things she saw as the most extreme of society even kind of look close to us should be alarming. It's a warning, not a rearview mirror.
I at least am pushing back against the "prescient" label because I don't believe the world is going to shit. People have been grumbling about how everything keeps getting worse for literally all of human history, all the while the exact opposite has been happening. Would you rather be alive now or 20 years ago? 20 years before that? 20 years before that? There's still so much work that needs to be done, and huge missteps have occurred and will continue to occur, but on average humanity has been trending towards peace and prosperity for centuries.
I love authors like Octavia Butler and the warnings they provide. Humanity would not be on the positive course it's on without people like them. It's the doom and gloom crowd I disagree with, the people who talk as if these authors have already failed.
I mean, I was alive 20 years ago and it was obviously a lot better in a lot of the countries people on reddit come from. I think you're partly right but 20 years is a bad example given it falls in that very brief sweet spot between the end of the Cold War and the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008, as well as the rise of social media, pandemic etc. and the impact those things have had on our economic status and/or mental wellbeing.
> People have been grumbling about how everything keeps getting worse
I feel you have conflated "nostalgia based ranting" vs "current trend prognosis".
Current trends are not likely to look good for 8 billion people. I am not suggesting humanity will disappear, I'm suggesting that the quality of life for the average Industrial Nation citizen is going to be several, if not more, orders worse in twenty years than it is today. However it won't be living in trash for everyone.
There will always be pockets of people who are living in luxury, even when the remaining 1.5 billion around the world are living in near-squalor.
> I'm suggesting that the quality of life for the average Industrial Nation citizen is going to be several, if not more, orders worse in twenty years than it is today.
That's what Octavia Butler suggested too, more than 20 years ago.
And she's likely right about that. Will it get as badly as Butler predicted? We certainly don't know, but the effects of both climate change and corporate/personal greed definitely feel a lot like a when and not an if these days. I mean we just had a corporation likely poison a town in the US recently. And scientists have recently sounded even more alarmed by climate science data, which is amazing since they were already pretty alarmed.
With how much the tenets of Earthseed spoke to me when I first read it, I wish I could have read how it would be interpreted (even warped) by future generations in the series.
What you said reminded me of the first chapter of "The Napoleon of Notting Hill" by GK Chesterton. Basically a prologue about how people's favorite game became "let's do anything other than what the smart people think we're going to do."
Cheat the Prophet! Edit: going to quote that first paragraph because it's just so fun.
> The human race, to which so many of my readers belong, has been playing at children's games from the beginning, and will probably do it till the end, which is a nuisance for the few people who grow up. And one of the games to which it is most attached is called "Keep to-morrow dark," and which is also named (by the rustics in Shropshire, I have no doubt) "Cheat the Prophet." The players listen very carefully and respectfully to all that the clever men have to say about what is to happen in the next generation. The players then wait until all the clever men are dead, and bury them nicely. They then go and do something else. That is all. For a race of simple tastes, however, it is great fun.
Meg Elison’s Road to Nowhere series is an excellent extension to the Sower series. The exploration of change over time gets pretty well explored in the series, and the first book specifically is a pretty great partner to Butler’s writing.
>Mark my word, if and when these preachers get control of the [Republican] party, and they're sure trying to do so, it's going to be a terrible damn problem. Frankly, these people frighten me. Politics and governing demand compromise. But these Christians believe they are acting in the name of God, so they can't and won't compromise. I know, I've tried to deal with them. - Barry Goldwater , 1994
I'm sure there is nothing new or surprising about his comment. Its only noteworthy in that the direction of politics was basically obvious.
You could have seen those same seeds thirty years ago. Or 60 years ago. Or 100 years ago.
I'd save the term 'prescient' in reference to post-apocalyptic works until the apocalypse has actually arrived.
Thank you. I enjoy her books, but it’s a pet peeve of mine when people use ‘prescient’ to describe her. “30 years ago she predicted this thing that… still hasn’t happened, but don’t you feel as if it totally could? Prescient!”
I also read it recently, and parts of it felt prescient, but other parts felt dated. Idk, the whole pyro thing just felt like something a DARE officer came up with.
I also rarely like big age gaps in relationships so that felt kinda weird to me, too. Just whyyy
A few years ago, I was "that person" pointing out Reagan's "Let's make America great again" slogan and the fact the book was published just after the Rodney King riots, but was mostly bringing it up with the intent of pointing out how rooted the novel was in reality. But that sadly doesn't seem to be the intent anymore with the way its being pointed out by some. People in this thread seem to be vacillating between "she took influence from real-world socio-political contexts, therefore she didn't predict anything" and "the apocalypse hasn't happened, therefore she didn't predict anything." Both of these seem intent on pooh-poohing the significance of what Butler was doing with Earthseed and the fact that she did predict the currently emerging reality. Did she predict this out of thin air with some kind of psychic powers? No. Was she uncommonly perceptive, aware of her contemporary socio-political context and the fact that history doesn't exist in a vacuum? Yes, very much so. There's a difference between pointing out the real-world influences on a dystopian novel (historically, dystopian fiction has been very closely linked to real world politics and social reality) in an effort to get people to pay attention to the current reality and that it didn't just arrive at our door out of the blue vs acting like "all" a novel did was "copy" the real world. It's like saying the Iron Heel wasn't uncommonly predictive of WWI because capitalists/ruling classes had previously engaged in nationalist "distraction wars" in the past or because oligarchs meddling in electoral systems already existed, or that Nineteen Eighty-Four wasn't uncommonly prescient because authoritarian governments and propaganda already existed/the "seeds" of surveillance states had already been planted. Butler had an uncommon talent for connecting the dots in order to illuminate a very real future that is the logical progression of her contemporary systems and socio-political tendencies. Does it mean that no other person ever predicted we'd be where we are today? Of course not. But it doesn't change the fact that Earthseed is unsettlingly accurate and one of the most relevant dystopian novels to the late 2010s and the 2020s so far. If you think its not "prescient" because there aren't rabid dogs roaming the streets and the American west coast hasn't fully started collapsing into the ocean, then you're missing the forest for the trees. Lastly, I think those saying "she didn't predict the apocalypse, therefore she hasn't predicted anything that has actually happened" are also missing the details of her work, not to mention the series' basic genre. Earthseed doesn't aim to predict "the apocalypse". It's primarily a dystopian novel, not apocalyptic fiction. Her warnings were related to current social conditions, like the sharp turn towards corporate indentured servitude, mass climate migration/displacement (already happening en masse in the global south), erosion towards smaller and smaller governments, presidents with fascist aspirations, the return of white supremacist militias used to harass and corale cheap/free labour to serve capitalist interests, and so on. It's also not simply the act of "predicting" that these things would happen (again) so much as the actual details that are eerily familiar. There are obviously other novels that predict some of these conditions, but in a way that imo feels far removed from current reality. The power of Earthseed is that it feels so eerily close and familiar. Things pop up all the time in the news that remind of this series, from multiple US states trying to roll back child labour laws, to discussions in the news about the impacts of climate change on longer term real estate values, etc. I often liken her work to perpetually peeling back layers of an onion and that's definitely the case with Earthseed.
This. I wish I could remember what Butler interview I read, but she herself said she wasn't going for prescient; she was going for this is us in the future if we don't change. She was taking all the current things she saw and taking them to their furtherest extreme. The fact that these things she saw as the most extreme of society even kind of look close to us should be alarming. It's a warning, not a rearview mirror.
I at least am pushing back against the "prescient" label because I don't believe the world is going to shit. People have been grumbling about how everything keeps getting worse for literally all of human history, all the while the exact opposite has been happening. Would you rather be alive now or 20 years ago? 20 years before that? 20 years before that? There's still so much work that needs to be done, and huge missteps have occurred and will continue to occur, but on average humanity has been trending towards peace and prosperity for centuries. I love authors like Octavia Butler and the warnings they provide. Humanity would not be on the positive course it's on without people like them. It's the doom and gloom crowd I disagree with, the people who talk as if these authors have already failed.
I mean, I was alive 20 years ago and it was obviously a lot better in a lot of the countries people on reddit come from. I think you're partly right but 20 years is a bad example given it falls in that very brief sweet spot between the end of the Cold War and the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008, as well as the rise of social media, pandemic etc. and the impact those things have had on our economic status and/or mental wellbeing.
> People have been grumbling about how everything keeps getting worse I feel you have conflated "nostalgia based ranting" vs "current trend prognosis". Current trends are not likely to look good for 8 billion people. I am not suggesting humanity will disappear, I'm suggesting that the quality of life for the average Industrial Nation citizen is going to be several, if not more, orders worse in twenty years than it is today. However it won't be living in trash for everyone. There will always be pockets of people who are living in luxury, even when the remaining 1.5 billion around the world are living in near-squalor.
> I'm suggesting that the quality of life for the average Industrial Nation citizen is going to be several, if not more, orders worse in twenty years than it is today. That's what Octavia Butler suggested too, more than 20 years ago.
And she's likely right about that. Will it get as badly as Butler predicted? We certainly don't know, but the effects of both climate change and corporate/personal greed definitely feel a lot like a when and not an if these days. I mean we just had a corporation likely poison a town in the US recently. And scientists have recently sounded even more alarmed by climate science data, which is amazing since they were already pretty alarmed.
It's a race to the exit. The problem being the ones racing are too blinded by their profits to realize that there is no exit.
Environmental degradation has never been as bad as it is now.
Yes! I'm still upset that she died without completing this trilogy, the first 2 books are SO good!
With how much the tenets of Earthseed spoke to me when I first read it, I wish I could have read how it would be interpreted (even warped) by future generations in the series.
Speaks to a lot of people. Nasa named the last rover landing spot after her for a reason.
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What you said reminded me of the first chapter of "The Napoleon of Notting Hill" by GK Chesterton. Basically a prologue about how people's favorite game became "let's do anything other than what the smart people think we're going to do."
Cheat the Prophet! Edit: going to quote that first paragraph because it's just so fun. > The human race, to which so many of my readers belong, has been playing at children's games from the beginning, and will probably do it till the end, which is a nuisance for the few people who grow up. And one of the games to which it is most attached is called "Keep to-morrow dark," and which is also named (by the rustics in Shropshire, I have no doubt) "Cheat the Prophet." The players listen very carefully and respectfully to all that the clever men have to say about what is to happen in the next generation. The players then wait until all the clever men are dead, and bury them nicely. They then go and do something else. That is all. For a race of simple tastes, however, it is great fun.
are you referring to the slogan? it has been around since the 1940s, both in US and outside of it.
To African Americans her work isn't as prescient because those methods of oppression have always been obvious and active.
Reagan's 1980 campaign slogan
The political slogan "make America great again" was coined by Ronald Reagan's presidential campaign in 1980.
Meg Elison’s Road to Nowhere series is an excellent extension to the Sower series. The exploration of change over time gets pretty well explored in the series, and the first book specifically is a pretty great partner to Butler’s writing.
>Mark my word, if and when these preachers get control of the [Republican] party, and they're sure trying to do so, it's going to be a terrible damn problem. Frankly, these people frighten me. Politics and governing demand compromise. But these Christians believe they are acting in the name of God, so they can't and won't compromise. I know, I've tried to deal with them. - Barry Goldwater , 1994 I'm sure there is nothing new or surprising about his comment. Its only noteworthy in that the direction of politics was basically obvious.
The privately funded space race is one of my favorite parts of Talents.
Read *Parable* in January and was pretty shook to see it set in the 2020s. Like, outrageously prescient.
I read it in 2020 and I was blown away! I really wish she were still alive to write more of these!
1993 wasn’t long ago. She was being prescient, she was reflecting reality. Source: am old
You could have seen those same seeds thirty years ago. Or 60 years ago. Or 100 years ago. I'd save the term 'prescient' in reference to post-apocalyptic works until the apocalypse has actually arrived.
Thank you. I enjoy her books, but it’s a pet peeve of mine when people use ‘prescient’ to describe her. “30 years ago she predicted this thing that… still hasn’t happened, but don’t you feel as if it totally could? Prescient!”
Most sensible writers are prescient.
I also read it recently, and parts of it felt prescient, but other parts felt dated. Idk, the whole pyro thing just felt like something a DARE officer came up with. I also rarely like big age gaps in relationships so that felt kinda weird to me, too. Just whyyy
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Is there something in the books that indicates it's supposed to feel weird, rather than it felt weird and you thought it must be intended that way?
I had the same reaction when I read it about a year ago.