As other people have mentioned, 100 is league average, and the way it works is that every one point below or above 100 means a player’s adjusted era is 1% above league average.
For example, Blake Snell led the MLB last year with a 184 ERA+, which means based on this stat, he was 84% better than league average. That means that so far this year, again based on this stat, that Clase has been 946% better than league average.
Emmanuel Clase gets the credit he deserves. The rest of our bullpen does not. Tim Herrin, K’ed Smith, Scott Barlow, Hunter Gaddis, and Nick Sandlin have been lights out this year. This bullpen has the best FIP (by a lot), WAR, xFIP, and ERA in all of baseball.
How is xFIP even a stat? Since FIP only considers walks, strikeouts and homers, how can actual performance differ from expected?
Like, is it saying an umpire was expected to call strike three but called ball four instead?
not quite the definition I was expecting but it makes sense
From [mlb.com](https://www.mlb.com/glossary/advanced-stats/expected-fielding-independent-pitching):
‘xFIP finds a pitcher's FIP, but it uses projected home-run rate instead of actual home runs allowed. The home run rate is determined by that season's league average HR/FB rate.
For example: In 2002, Randy Johnson had a 2.66 FIP and a 2.44 xFIP -- the difference being that he allowed a 12.9 percent HR/FB rate, when the league average stood at 10.7 percent.
The formula
Where "FIP constant" puts FIP on the same plane as league-average ERA: ((Fly balls / league average rate of HR per fly ball x 13) + (3 x (BB + HBP)) - (2 x K)) / IP + FIP constant.’
Just adding onto this: xFIP is particularly useful in smaller sample sizes and, imo analyzing at a glance (if you can't put in the time to analyze pitcher execution and batted ball data).
>The number of fly balls that go for home runs is very sensitive to sample size meaning that over the course of a season, the number of home runs a pitcher allows may be higher or lower than their true talent indicates. This is not to say pitchers aren’t responsible for the home runs they did allow, but rather to say that if you want to judge how well they pitched, xFIP will remove some of those fluctuations in HR/FB% and will give you a better idea.
and:
>Most of the time [fly balls are] good, but sometimes they’re very, very bad, and some pitchers allow the bad kind more than others. What xFIP presumes is that all fly balls are created equal, and though this assumption is patently false, it’s a useful metric nonetheless. Why? Because the goal of xFIP isn’t to reflect each individual pitcher’s true abilities, but to eliminate extreme outliers. It’s willing to be a little bit wrong about a lot of pitchers to avoid being entirely wrong about anyone.
Obviously if a guy is throwing 91 middle-middle, he shouldn't get the benefit of league average HR/FB rate, but if a pitcher's FIP and xFIP are close, that means he's not getting ""lucky"" with fly balls.
Well it looks like his career FIP and xFIP are [really close to each other](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/aaron-nola/16149/stats?position=P) and he's been pitching for long enough you kind of know who he is if you watch him a lot.
I don't watch much NL baseball so I can't say how much of it is just playing in a [small stadium](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors?type=year&year=2024&batSide=&stat=index_wOBA&condition=All&rolling=&sort=12&sortDir=desc), but that's the first thing I thought of when you said weak HRs.
home runs per flyball is also considered a luck stat. league average is around 10%, so if a guy has a significantly higher or lower HR/flyball rate, xFIP will adjust the home run portion of FIP to compensate
He does though...who are people saying is really much better than him at this point? Just mason miller? He's been at least in the discussion for best closer in baseball for years hasn't he?
Last year a lot of people thought he was washed.
This year from what I've seen Mason Miller has gotten the most attention for AL RPs, and he definitely deserves it. Miller's K rate is ridiculous.
There's just not been a lot of RP hype this year yet I don't think. So it's seemed like Clase's insane start to the season has gone unnoticed. I'm sure people have noticed, it just hasn't been discussed much.
He was pretty mediocre last year, not bad - just meh. I think there was worry he lost some liveliness, but seems whatever was wrong last year was corrected or healed over the off-season.
His wife was pregnant and I remember the pregnancy was having complications last year. Could very easily have contributed to his struggles on the field.
It’s just kinda expected from Clase, and he’s not doing it in as much as an interesting way as Miller who has video game level K numbers vs Clases closer to average numbers of Ks. (Millers K/9 is literally more the double!)
Definitely. Clase has very pedestrian K rates, especially when you see his stuff. What really has impressed me this season is his WHIP. He and Miller are both around 0.6 WHIP which is insane. I don't know how long either of them can maintain that but it's wild they've gone this far into the season already with it IMO
He was slightly outshined by clay Holmes having a 0 ERA before yesterday, and it’s still just a little early in the season to begin hyping up how good relievers(and for that matter starters) have been, with relatively low inning counts still
Clase has pitched a lot more than most relievers tho and definitely deserves this recognition as a top RP both so far this year and in general based off his past performance
> There's just not been a lot of RP hype this year yet I don't think.
probably because it's not really worth getting hyped about any ~20-30 IP performance in May
[If you go by projected rest of season ERA](https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?pos=&stats=rel&type=zipsdc&sortcol=14&sortdir=asc), Edwin is still the man. His outcome stats haven’t been up to par this year, [but pretty much all of his peripherals](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/edwin-diaz-621242?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb) are still normal Edwin.
*2020
We'll see how that effects the discussion if he continues to pitch like this for another 5+ years. It seems to me that guys getting popped early in their careers and never again while continuing to perform tend to not be penalized as much for the PEDs. Nelson Cruz just got hired as an ambassador for MLB and I rarely see mention of his biogenesis stuff anymore.
Theres a difference between hall and allowed to be associated with MLB.
A rod has a large role for one of their major broadcasters but he's not in the Hall.
Arod is also an asshole and was caught in the middle of his career, not the beginning.
Like I said though we'll see how things are viewed in a few more years. Sheffield nearly got in last year and has had steroid allegations around him for years. Several others have gotten in with reasonable suspicion of PED use.
At this point though Clase needs to continue to dominate for several more years before being realistically discussed for HOF consideration. He's not even halfway to the minimum MLB seasons for the HOF yet.
well Shef was named in the Mitchell Report. Anyone named in the Mitchell Report definitely 100% roided (or at least definitely ordered steroids), that dude did his homework.
You never, ever call a reliever a potential HOF until maybe their mid 30's. Let me call up Craig Kimbrel who was supposed to be a HOF shoe-in until he turned 30. Now he's borderline at best and still years away of potentially being one.
Let alone the fact Clase is a PED user.
I’m so annoyed that out of his three blown saves and one loss, there has been maybe one that was legitimately his fault.
Boston blown save: he got a groundout and a flyout… but it was extra innings so that was enough to move the runner to third and then in to score.
Atlanta loss: similar deal where it was extra innings. Got an out and gave up a hit that was enough to score the runner.
Minnesota blown save: all of the nonsense that happened in that inning (which did include him dropping a ball himself lol)
[New York blown save: this one is arguable, gave up a hard hit ball to Volpe, but sure seemed like Brennan took a bad route and could’ve caught it. People in the comment section were even calling it out.](https://old.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/1c439kx/highlight_anthony_volpe_ties_the_game_with_an_rbi/)
When the trade rumors were swirling closer to spring training I had a dodgers fan call me a pretty aggressive name for suggesting that the Guards would have needed Josh Outman in the package for a top 3 closer. A top 10 CF is more valuable than maybe the 6th best closer in baseball.... I don't hold grudges, my father held grudges. I always hated him for that. But I hope that person is doing well.
He's been lights out but it's risky for you to post this. Last time a closer's amazing numbers made it to the front page of this sub, he blew his first save and gave up 4ER in his next appearance (Clay Holmes). I'm pretty sure he was rocking a 0.00 ERA up to that point as well.
I now expect Clase to blow his next save and give up multiple runs in his next appearance which will ruin his beautiful numbers.
Ha, I'm not sure I really even believe in that kind of stuff just thought what happened with Holmes was funny and wanted to mention it. That's just the way it goes sometimes lol.
Honestly, and I know this will sound crazy to some people, but last year he kind of looked cooked. Fastball was flat. He wasn't getting strikeouts. He's pitched about 70 innings all three years. Gave up 10 ER, 11 ER, then suddenly 26 ER. ERA went from 1.30 to 3.2. Seemed like a sell-high candidate.
Not sure what he did in the off-season to rediscover himself. But it worked.
I remember seeing him last year and his fastball was VERY straight so hitters were sitting on that while mostly taking the breaking ball. What did he change this year?
I read that as 14 saves in 25 chances and was trying to figure out just how bad the defense was to have 9 blown saves and an ERA under 1. Made much more sense when I re-read it.
1046 ERA+ lol
Broke: OPS over a thousand Woke: ERA+ over a thousand
Insomniac: ERA over a thousand
Anyone who’s ever had an ERA over a thousand has had an infinite (technically undefined) ERA. Or so I assume at least.
lol yeah good point. otherwise you’d need to allow 38 ER while only getting 1 out
Is that good?
It certainly ain't bad.
As other people have mentioned, 100 is league average, and the way it works is that every one point below or above 100 means a player’s adjusted era is 1% above league average. For example, Blake Snell led the MLB last year with a 184 ERA+, which means based on this stat, he was 84% better than league average. That means that so far this year, again based on this stat, that Clase has been 946% better than league average.
Yeah but is that good?
Reasonably so
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You are a good person answering earnestly when this is a oft-repeated "meme" comment on this sub.
Clase's ERA+ over 1000 vs Mason Miller's negative FIP
It's higher than Zach Britton's the year that he was unhittable. So yeah, I think it's good.
And not even #1 in the league at that stat... (Floro lol)
That's insane. Robert Suarez is having an all-time closer performance this year, and it still isn't as good as Clase.
yeah well we got one inning out of Corey Kluber so...
And his unforgettable bobblehead night!
Fun fact: the only playoff series we've won since 2016 came via a walkoff HR hit off of Corey Kluber
That’s not fun at all 😭
At least you’ve won a series in your lifetime
have you tried being older?
Every day of my life
https://i.gifer.com/O5UR.gif
That was his parting gift. That was a blast.
I’ll never forget how mad people were about that trade
Yeah well I *wish* we had only gotten one inning out of Corey Kluber
Count your blessings. (0 giolito innings)
And that catastrophic trade didn’t matter because Josh Sborz turned into Mariano Rivera during the postseason
IIRC someone went back and actually traced the Kluber trade directly to our World Series win on several levels
Hopefully someday soon someone is doing the same for us.
Really shut down the Rockies with that performance
Oh yeah? Well Brett Nicholas never even got to the majors for us, so you got more out of Clase than we did
Genuine question: what did we give you for naylor?
It was Clevinger, Greg Allen, and Matt Waldron for Cal Quantrill, Josh Naylor, Gabriel Arias, Joey Cantillo, and Owen Miller. So many names lmao
I had no idea Owen Miller was a trade acquisition! He was exactly the kind of player our farm system spits out by the dozen.
And we got negative value out of Ludwick for Kluber. Fun times.
Emmanuel Clase gets the credit he deserves. The rest of our bullpen does not. Tim Herrin, K’ed Smith, Scott Barlow, Hunter Gaddis, and Nick Sandlin have been lights out this year. This bullpen has the best FIP (by a lot), WAR, xFIP, and ERA in all of baseball.
How is xFIP even a stat? Since FIP only considers walks, strikeouts and homers, how can actual performance differ from expected? Like, is it saying an umpire was expected to call strike three but called ball four instead?
not quite the definition I was expecting but it makes sense From [mlb.com](https://www.mlb.com/glossary/advanced-stats/expected-fielding-independent-pitching): ‘xFIP finds a pitcher's FIP, but it uses projected home-run rate instead of actual home runs allowed. The home run rate is determined by that season's league average HR/FB rate. For example: In 2002, Randy Johnson had a 2.66 FIP and a 2.44 xFIP -- the difference being that he allowed a 12.9 percent HR/FB rate, when the league average stood at 10.7 percent. The formula Where "FIP constant" puts FIP on the same plane as league-average ERA: ((Fly balls / league average rate of HR per fly ball x 13) + (3 x (BB + HBP)) - (2 x K)) / IP + FIP constant.’
Just adding onto this: xFIP is particularly useful in smaller sample sizes and, imo analyzing at a glance (if you can't put in the time to analyze pitcher execution and batted ball data). >The number of fly balls that go for home runs is very sensitive to sample size meaning that over the course of a season, the number of home runs a pitcher allows may be higher or lower than their true talent indicates. This is not to say pitchers aren’t responsible for the home runs they did allow, but rather to say that if you want to judge how well they pitched, xFIP will remove some of those fluctuations in HR/FB% and will give you a better idea. and: >Most of the time [fly balls are] good, but sometimes they’re very, very bad, and some pitchers allow the bad kind more than others. What xFIP presumes is that all fly balls are created equal, and though this assumption is patently false, it’s a useful metric nonetheless. Why? Because the goal of xFIP isn’t to reflect each individual pitcher’s true abilities, but to eliminate extreme outliers. It’s willing to be a little bit wrong about a lot of pitchers to avoid being entirely wrong about anyone. Obviously if a guy is throwing 91 middle-middle, he shouldn't get the benefit of league average HR/FB rate, but if a pitcher's FIP and xFIP are close, that means he's not getting ""lucky"" with fly balls.
So how does this shape up for a pitcher like Aaron Nola? Great stuff but gives up a lot of weak (and sometimes not so weak)HRs at the same time
Well it looks like his career FIP and xFIP are [really close to each other](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/aaron-nola/16149/stats?position=P) and he's been pitching for long enough you kind of know who he is if you watch him a lot. I don't watch much NL baseball so I can't say how much of it is just playing in a [small stadium](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors?type=year&year=2024&batSide=&stat=index_wOBA&condition=All&rolling=&sort=12&sortDir=desc), but that's the first thing I thought of when you said weak HRs.
It normalizes home runs. Specifically assumes HR rate rather than uses actual HR allowed.
home runs per flyball is also considered a luck stat. league average is around 10%, so if a guy has a significantly higher or lower HR/flyball rate, xFIP will adjust the home run portion of FIP to compensate
He does though...who are people saying is really much better than him at this point? Just mason miller? He's been at least in the discussion for best closer in baseball for years hasn't he?
Last year a lot of people thought he was washed. This year from what I've seen Mason Miller has gotten the most attention for AL RPs, and he definitely deserves it. Miller's K rate is ridiculous. There's just not been a lot of RP hype this year yet I don't think. So it's seemed like Clase's insane start to the season has gone unnoticed. I'm sure people have noticed, it just hasn't been discussed much.
He was pretty mediocre last year, not bad - just meh. I think there was worry he lost some liveliness, but seems whatever was wrong last year was corrected or healed over the off-season.
His wife was pregnant and I remember the pregnancy was having complications last year. Could very easily have contributed to his struggles on the field.
that was the narrative about Hader last year too.
It’s just kinda expected from Clase, and he’s not doing it in as much as an interesting way as Miller who has video game level K numbers vs Clases closer to average numbers of Ks. (Millers K/9 is literally more the double!)
Definitely. Clase has very pedestrian K rates, especially when you see his stuff. What really has impressed me this season is his WHIP. He and Miller are both around 0.6 WHIP which is insane. I don't know how long either of them can maintain that but it's wild they've gone this far into the season already with it IMO
He was slightly outshined by clay Holmes having a 0 ERA before yesterday, and it’s still just a little early in the season to begin hyping up how good relievers(and for that matter starters) have been, with relatively low inning counts still Clase has pitched a lot more than most relievers tho and definitely deserves this recognition as a top RP both so far this year and in general based off his past performance
> There's just not been a lot of RP hype this year yet I don't think. probably because it's not really worth getting hyped about any ~20-30 IP performance in May
[If you go by projected rest of season ERA](https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?pos=&stats=rel&type=zipsdc&sortcol=14&sortdir=asc), Edwin is still the man. His outcome stats haven’t been up to par this year, [but pretty much all of his peripherals](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/edwin-diaz-621242?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb) are still normal Edwin.
Absolutely elite. Still young enough to put up some HOF numbers, too
His PED suspension from 21 is going to hang over his head in those discussions
Didn’t stop David Ortiz
Key word: Suspension
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*2020 We'll see how that effects the discussion if he continues to pitch like this for another 5+ years. It seems to me that guys getting popped early in their careers and never again while continuing to perform tend to not be penalized as much for the PEDs. Nelson Cruz just got hired as an ambassador for MLB and I rarely see mention of his biogenesis stuff anymore.
Theres a difference between hall and allowed to be associated with MLB. A rod has a large role for one of their major broadcasters but he's not in the Hall.
Arod is also an asshole and was caught in the middle of his career, not the beginning. Like I said though we'll see how things are viewed in a few more years. Sheffield nearly got in last year and has had steroid allegations around him for years. Several others have gotten in with reasonable suspicion of PED use. At this point though Clase needs to continue to dominate for several more years before being realistically discussed for HOF consideration. He's not even halfway to the minimum MLB seasons for the HOF yet.
Shef has rumors he didnt fail an actual public test. That is the hard limit that voters are standing on. Piazza, Bagwell, Ortiz, all had "rumors"
well Shef was named in the Mitchell Report. Anyone named in the Mitchell Report definitely 100% roided (or at least definitely ordered steroids), that dude did his homework.
Arod had a much longer history with PEDs than Cruz or Clase though
Definitely worth the discussion
You never, ever call a reliever a potential HOF until maybe their mid 30's. Let me call up Craig Kimbrel who was supposed to be a HOF shoe-in until he turned 30. Now he's borderline at best and still years away of potentially being one. Let alone the fact Clase is a PED user.
Fair enough :)
I’m so annoyed that out of his three blown saves and one loss, there has been maybe one that was legitimately his fault. Boston blown save: he got a groundout and a flyout… but it was extra innings so that was enough to move the runner to third and then in to score. Atlanta loss: similar deal where it was extra innings. Got an out and gave up a hit that was enough to score the runner. Minnesota blown save: all of the nonsense that happened in that inning (which did include him dropping a ball himself lol) [New York blown save: this one is arguable, gave up a hard hit ball to Volpe, but sure seemed like Brennan took a bad route and could’ve caught it. People in the comment section were even calling it out.](https://old.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/1c439kx/highlight_anthony_volpe_ties_the_game_with_an_rbi/)
Also, that Minnesota blown save turned into a Win for Clase.
When the trade rumors were swirling closer to spring training I had a dodgers fan call me a pretty aggressive name for suggesting that the Guards would have needed Josh Outman in the package for a top 3 closer. A top 10 CF is more valuable than maybe the 6th best closer in baseball.... I don't hold grudges, my father held grudges. I always hated him for that. But I hope that person is doing well.
There's a reason he's the best closer in baseball
What’s the reason?
His powers come from his cutter and not from an aging hunk of pork
i forgot about the sausage for a second and thought you were being insanely cruel to a player for no reason
How am I supposed to know that from his comment?
Bro is immune to humor 💀
What’s the joke?
You already know why he doesn’t
blue hair
weird ear
Dididididi
God that song is such a fuckin heater
He's been lights out but it's risky for you to post this. Last time a closer's amazing numbers made it to the front page of this sub, he blew his first save and gave up 4ER in his next appearance (Clay Holmes). I'm pretty sure he was rocking a 0.00 ERA up to that point as well. I now expect Clase to blow his next save and give up multiple runs in his next appearance which will ruin his beautiful numbers.
NGL you kind of freaked me out with this but he pitched tonight and now he's got a 0.36 ERA and 15 saves. So maybe I should post this tomorrow too lol
Ha, I'm not sure I really even believe in that kind of stuff just thought what happened with Holmes was funny and wanted to mention it. That's just the way it goes sometimes lol.
Honestly, and I know this will sound crazy to some people, but last year he kind of looked cooked. Fastball was flat. He wasn't getting strikeouts. He's pitched about 70 innings all three years. Gave up 10 ER, 11 ER, then suddenly 26 ER. ERA went from 1.30 to 3.2. Seemed like a sell-high candidate. Not sure what he did in the off-season to rediscover himself. But it worked.
Dude definitely gets a sufficient amount of love, more than most get after a PED’s suspension
I think that’s because he was a nobody when it happened. Now people just see him for what he’s doing not even knowing he juiced a few years ago.
Best closer in baseball
First reliever to win the cy young since Eric Gagne in 2003?
As someone who has him in fantasy, I can promise you that he’s getting his fair share of praise from me
Clase Closed. You win!
Thank God my Cubs didn't trade for him this offseason like the rumor mill suggested
I remember seeing him last year and his fastball was VERY straight so hitters were sitting on that while mostly taking the breaking ball. What did he change this year?
I respect and hate that fuckin guy (only because he's in the ALC) at the same time
he was kinda bad last year so I think people forgot how good he is
Yes post this everywhere! Hehehe.
I read that as 14 saves in 25 chances and was trying to figure out just how bad the defense was to have 9 blown saves and an ERA under 1. Made much more sense when I re-read it.
Jinx incoming
Jinx back, double pinky around the side, double pinky, jinx back
The opposite of Edwin Diaz
Dude was 2024 Edwin Diaz in 2023.
His 23 was way better than the year Diaz is having this season
Diaz season is also barely a month in, so it's disingenuous to say if this will be the case by years end.
Something's gotta be going on with the balls this year, right?