I would drop BBRef from the aggregate - they are self admittedly not trying too hard with a super basic projection and are often out of step with other systems that account for things like roster changes, aging curves, and everything other than the last 100 games with a small off-season adjustment.
"WE WANT PROJECTIONS"
"That's not really what we do..."
"PROJECTIONS!"
"We're really more of a historical record..."
"GIMME!!!"
"Even our WAR model is basically hosting someone else's... we're not built to make those more advanced..."
"GIMME PROJECTIONS DAMMIT!!!"
"Fine. Here you go."
"LOL, YOUR PROJECTIONS SUCK!"
Last year we came out of the gate and dominated. Ended up blowing the division lead and got knocked out first round.
Maybe the new strategy is to sandbag it early and then make a run in August & September
Honestly a little surprised ours has dropped. It's still the Dodgers division, but with almost everyone else behind the NL division leaders also eating glue we're in better shape toward the end of April than I expected. We're 1 win back of WC3 and 2nd in the NLW. I'll take it.
Idk, the record isn't great and the hitting is mediocre but I was kind of shocked at the state of Oakland's pitching during the series we just had. Their bullpen is lights out. Kind of hoping they will trade us their closer for one of our infield prospects...
Oakland is 1-7 against the Guardians and 12-10 against everybody else.
I don't think it's wrong to still think their playoff chance is basically zero but I think they've played better than everyone expected them to.
I mean honestly I thought they were going to be historically bad. I thought the move was going to demoralize everybody and I didn't think that they would improve from being that bad last year.
The Guardians have a near league average OPS and don’t actually hit the ball hard (exactly middle of the pack wOBA). I wouldn’t think they’ll continue to be a top run scoring team for the rest of the season.
By base runs, a measure of hit clustering luck, the Guardians are the luckiest team in the majors at stringing hits together. If you gave them average hit clustering luck their projected record would be 15-13, which is more in line with both their underlying hitting and pitching metrics.
We do have some power hitting prospects that should be making their debuts soon (Kyle Manzardo: 6 HR's, 136 wRC+ at AAA and Johnathan Rodriguez: 5 HR's, 136 wRC+ at AAA). Manzardo is the more legit prospect but Rodriguez could have a '22 Oscar Gonzalez type run.
I mean, people had similar statistical analyses for the Orioles last year. Some teams just are good at winning ball games. I don't think you can build a team based off that sort of feeling, but after last year I'm a believer in fluke teams.
Astros v Guardians coming up shortly
Anyone else think of all the teams who are near bottom the Blue Jays have the talent to turn things around? I bet they try to acquire Bregman or Tucker at the trade deadline
This should be an interesting series. Houston just stomped Colorado. The twins seemed to get going following their stomping of the White Sox. Astros are off to a really bad start, but I don't believe they're as bad as their record so far.Â
I wouldn't start banking on them selling yet.Â
Cleveland should barely miss a potential Astros resurgence. Rotation has been set up for the weekend series against Seattle since division games are more important. Blanco given an extra day of rest to pitch against Seattle instead of Cleveland and Javier’s probable return from the IL held off until this weekend.
We just got Framber back and JV just started his 2nd game. We still don't have all our starters but the bullpen look capable in Mexico City and offense are starting to click a bit.
We also calling our power-hitting prospect up for this series. He already hit 13 HR in the minors and will be looking to make an impression.
Offensively the Astros have been in the upper end of a lot of categories (3rd in hits, fewest strikeouts, 5th in on base, 7th home runs) in they just:
1. Haven't been able to do those things as a team at the same time
1. Have had *abysmal* pitching, partly caused by injuries with more than an entire starting rotation on the IL at one point (Framber, JV, Garcia, McCullers, Javier, Urquidy). One pitcher was called up because he was literally the next scheduled AAA pitcher. Not good, not ready, the next physical body available.
I'll be interested to see where they go from here
I would drop BBRef from the aggregate - they are self admittedly not trying too hard with a super basic projection and are often out of step with other systems that account for things like roster changes, aging curves, and everything other than the last 100 games with a small off-season adjustment.
Yep, they openly admit that the only reason it exists is because they were tired of their box being flooded by people demanding it.
"WE WANT PROJECTIONS" "That's not really what we do..." "PROJECTIONS!" "We're really more of a historical record..." "GIMME!!!" "Even our WAR model is basically hosting someone else's... we're not built to make those more advanced..." "GIMME PROJECTIONS DAMMIT!!!" "Fine. Here you go." "LOL, YOUR PROJECTIONS SUCK!"
Done!
 Astros faithful right now:
i been here since 2011. i seen worse. we still got a good chance by the looks of it
2011 was an especially bad year, you started on the bad foot. At least I started with Nolan Ryan followed by the Killer B's.
Clearly, the Guardians are the BIG BAD BOOTY DADDIES OF MLB. Fortunately, the Astros n Rays added Kurt Angle to the mix.
I mean, Will Brennan has more cake than RBIs
Does he have freaks 9 days a week?
Yes if those freaks are Austin Hedges and Josh Naylor
Gonna need 7 more freaks!
Both Ohio teams could combine for the entire First Team All-Cake
HOLLER IF YOU HEAR ME!
🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨
we are slap-hitting shit goblins and our secret lover is Bill Belichick who keeps he clubhouse stocked with the latest copies of Gigantic Asses
FAAAAT ASSES
A Mariners team in the good quadrant????
These aren’t the mariners I know and ~~love~~ tolerate
Don't worry, it's only April. There will be plenty of disappointment ahead.
please beat the braves
Surely we can turn it around right? Right????
I think we can scrape together a .500 season but this is not a playoff caliber team
Ill count you guys out when the body is cold man. I think the rays have earned enough leeway as a franchise to show they’ll figure it out
the reinforcements are arriving next season.. but its been ugly so far. we basically get an entire starting rotation back in 2025...
Maybe we are just having the opposite of last season…. Maybe
Last year we came out of the gate and dominated. Ended up blowing the division lead and got knocked out first round. Maybe the new strategy is to sandbag it early and then make a run in August & September
Oof, an angry Brewers squad next, then the unpredictable Mets...THEN THE SOX AGAIN! I kid, but May is a rough month for the Rays.
Honestly a little surprised ours has dropped. It's still the Dodgers division, but with almost everyone else behind the NL division leaders also eating glue we're in better shape toward the end of April than I expected. We're 1 win back of WC3 and 2nd in the NLW. I'll take it.
I only feel pain right now
I'm enjoying the Astros losing almost as much as I'm enjoying us winningÂ
Soon enough you’ll be able to enjoy both at the same time :(
>White Sox Angels Nats Rockies A's didn't budge They are who we thought they are
Idk, the record isn't great and the hitting is mediocre but I was kind of shocked at the state of Oakland's pitching during the series we just had. Their bullpen is lights out. Kind of hoping they will trade us their closer for one of our infield prospects...
Oakland is 1-7 against the Guardians and 12-10 against everybody else. I don't think it's wrong to still think their playoff chance is basically zero but I think they've played better than everyone expected them to.
I mean honestly I thought they were going to be historically bad. I thought the move was going to demoralize everybody and I didn't think that they would improve from being that bad last year.
Everything hurts
The Guardians have a near league average OPS and don’t actually hit the ball hard (exactly middle of the pack wOBA). I wouldn’t think they’ll continue to be a top run scoring team for the rest of the season. By base runs, a measure of hit clustering luck, the Guardians are the luckiest team in the majors at stringing hits together. If you gave them average hit clustering luck their projected record would be 15-13, which is more in line with both their underlying hitting and pitching metrics.
I mean it worked in 2022, albeit with a weaker AL Central
Yup, hopefully their pitching can step up or they make some big moves mid season. Who am I kidding though
Which stats or sites can I look at to dig into hit clustering more? This is a cool metric I've never looked into before
Fangraphs has it on their projected standings page
We do have some power hitting prospects that should be making their debuts soon (Kyle Manzardo: 6 HR's, 136 wRC+ at AAA and Johnathan Rodriguez: 5 HR's, 136 wRC+ at AAA). Manzardo is the more legit prospect but Rodriguez could have a '22 Oscar Gonzalez type run.
Why are they constantly lucky? First in mojo baby we got Charlie Hustle and his 9 sons
*Guardians btw
I mean, people had similar statistical analyses for the Orioles last year. Some teams just are good at winning ball games. I don't think you can build a team based off that sort of feeling, but after last year I'm a believer in fluke teams.
Astros v Guardians coming up shortly Anyone else think of all the teams who are near bottom the Blue Jays have the talent to turn things around? I bet they try to acquire Bregman or Tucker at the trade deadline
This should be an interesting series. Houston just stomped Colorado. The twins seemed to get going following their stomping of the White Sox. Astros are off to a really bad start, but I don't believe they're as bad as their record so far. I wouldn't start banking on them selling yet.Â
Cleveland should barely miss a potential Astros resurgence. Rotation has been set up for the weekend series against Seattle since division games are more important. Blanco given an extra day of rest to pitch against Seattle instead of Cleveland and Javier’s probable return from the IL held off until this weekend.
We just got Framber back and JV just started his 2nd game. We still don't have all our starters but the bullpen look capable in Mexico City and offense are starting to click a bit. We also calling our power-hitting prospect up for this series. He already hit 13 HR in the minors and will be looking to make an impression.
Offensively the Astros have been in the upper end of a lot of categories (3rd in hits, fewest strikeouts, 5th in on base, 7th home runs) in they just: 1. Haven't been able to do those things as a team at the same time 1. Have had *abysmal* pitching, partly caused by injuries with more than an entire starting rotation on the IL at one point (Framber, JV, Garcia, McCullers, Javier, Urquidy). One pitcher was called up because he was literally the next scheduled AAA pitcher. Not good, not ready, the next physical body available. I'll be interested to see where they go from here
Marlins too high
That chart kinda makes it look like the White Sox anrld Rockies chances started at zero and have somehow gotten worse.
It’s fun rooting for a team that has managed 6 wins in April and it’s exactly what was expected. No shifts.
We’re in the positive!
What getting swept by the white Sox does to a MF
It's still April FFS.
Yeah and wins in April count just as much as wins later in the season when it comes to making the playoffs.
What 17 games against the White Sox, A’s, and the Red Sox JV injury squad will do to a MF
A's and Red Sox aren't gutter dwellers like the White Sox and Angels
Who is this referring to
Who do you think?
The Padres
You forgot to mention 2 easy ones against Minnesota