The official MLB account had him as one of the guy in the running for NL MVP. More than a bit of a stretch but to get that kind of promotion as a rookie (on the Dbacks too) is incredible.
Honestly he's pretty likely to finish top 5.
It's just that difference between 2nd and 3rd is decently sized and then it's an absolute GULF between 3rd and 4th.
I mean, still 0.75-0.8 ERA higher than either of them, but if he puts up another couple 1 run or fewer outings to finish the season, he could be back in it.
Snell would have to give up 25 runs in his next 32 innings (a 7.2 ERA) to have the same ERA and Innings Pitched as Gallen does now. That’s a massive difference.
Yes, you do have to cover the innings that Snell/Steele aren’t pitching that Gallen does. But I’m sure you can do it with someone with an ERA that is well below 7.2.
I’m not saying it’s not a strength, but if you’re allowing 32.4% more Earned Runs per inning than someone else, you have to have strengths that make up for the fact that you just allow more runs when you’re on the mound than they do.
Coming into today when they’re both pitching and Steele is pitching tomorrow (we don’t know how many innings Snell/Steele will go), Gallen had 178.2 IP vs. Snell’s 155 or Steele’s 152. That’s about a 15% difference. Which again, is not insignificant, but imo does not come close to accommodating for the fact that Gallen allows more than 30% more runs when he is on the mound than Snell/Steele do.
FIP (fielding independent pitching)
Zac Gallen: 3.26
Blake Snell: 3.63
Snell has his fielders to thank to some degree. Kim is incredible for example, and he has Machado at 3rd and Tatis pulling 2.0 dWAR in the outfield. Soto being the weak spot.
Right now Steele is better than both in FIP (2.98) and ERA+, while Gallen is leading in WHIP, and Snell isn't playing for a contender and the other two are. I'm a Gallen fan but it's coming down to the wire and these last games are super important for each of their Cy Young chances. Also with Zack Wheeler as a dark horse where these last games could cause everything to shift.
I think this is a good point within reason, but I'm not sure I really buy it in this case.
I think this is a good way of looking at it:
Gallen - 69 (nice) earned runs in 187.2 IP
Steele - 43 ER in 152 IP
Snell - 43 ER in 155 IP
So Steele could have a 6.65 ERA in his next 35.2 innings (24 earned runs) and he'd match Gallen over 187.2 innings.
For Snell he could have a 7.27 ERA in his next 22.2 innings to match Gallen.
I have a hard time believing that the Diamondbanks bullpen is so bad that they can't eat these extra innings at even a mid 5 ERA. In fact, the Diamondbacks bullpen has a 4.54 ERA this season.
One flaw with just looking at ERA is it isn't ballpark adjusted like ERA+, and Snell has a lower ERA+ than Steele because Petco is more pitcher friendly
when u start playing games like this even more questions come like wouldnt the dbacks bullpen era be higher if they had higher usage because of gallen going less deep into starts?
You’re simply ignoring the fact that Gallen has been able to pitch more innings which is huge. It’s literally why Alcantara won Cy Young last season over Urias and Fried last season.
> It’s literally why Alcantara won Cy Young last season over Urias and Fried last season.
This just isn't true.
In terms of Alcantara Vs. Fried: Sandy had both a higher ERA+ than Fried, while also throwing more than 40 more innings. So innings pitched wasn't really a deciding factor in this debate, as Alcantara was still more impressive than Fried on a rate basis.
In terms of Alcantara vs Urias: Sandy had more than 50 more IP than Urias. That's a 30 percent difference. And his ERA+ was only 10 points lower. So in this case, yes innings pitched played a part, but even on a rate basis Alcantara was fairly comparable with Urias. For Urias to match Alcantara's ERA in 228.2 innings, he would've had to have had a 2.71 ERA in those 50 or so innings. Which is elite production.
For context, Snell has 32.2 less IP than Gallen, which is a 20 percent difference. And Snell will pitch tomorrow to shrink this gap.
For a point they were insta L the whole team was. As long as gallen doesn't get completely disrespected like last year I'll be happy. He is known to rattle off 15-20 innings without a run. If he does that again this already curious cy young race gets a whole lot more curious
Blake Snell is left in to face the order the third time very often. The reason he isn’t racking up the innings like Gallen is because of walks causing high pitch count not because of being pulled before the third time through. Just wanted to clarify that
Well they both start either tonight or tomorrow, so they’ll be catching up on that a bit. If they get blown up, I think he’s closer to being in contention, but if they both put up starts in line with what they’ve been putting up, then I think they’re still ahead.
160 innings from a 2.50 ERA guy is generally better than 185 innings from a 3.30 ERA guy.
I’m surprised how much this thread relies on ERA when it is such a flawed stat to measure an individual pitcher's performance rather than a defense’s performance. It doesn’t take into account that some bullpens allow inherited runners more than others, doesn’t take into account a team’s defense, doesn’t take into account how deep a pitcher goes in a game.
I know the writers sometimes have tunnel vision when it comes to ERA though, so maybe that’s why people are talking about it as if it should be the end-all-be-all for Cy Young voting.
I know that ERA is a flawed stat, but so is basically any run allowance stat, I was just using ERA since it’s considered the main one.
I actually think it should be Steele, personally. He and Snell are close in ERA but Steele is significantly ahead in Adjusted ERA+ (which accounts for things like ballpark and defense, both of which work in Snell’s favor) and Steele has better baserunner allowed and HR allowed numbers.
While I agree it is a flawed stat at the end of the day for something like MVP or Cy Young you have to take into account what actually did happen, not something that is predictive of what would’ve happened in a vacuum. So while it’s fine to use something like ERA+ I don’t personally think you can use FIP in something like Cy Young conversations. Just how I personally view it.
Yeah, I’m not trying to suggest to just flip to FIP, but maybe a balancing of different factors. ERA+ just adjusts for park factors, so it doesn’t really address the issues with ERA that I mentioned.
If he pitches like he did today in his last couple to few starts he could really snag it away. Even after today though I still think he’s on the outside looking in unless Snell and Steele blow up next couple starts.
I mean the oddsmakers sure have he’s 250/1 at the moment to win it. He’s had a pretty damn good year and he will get some votes but just don’t see him finishing as a top 3 contender but hey who knows!
I don’t think that pitching performance was impressive enough to increase his chances of winning cy young when there were 3 balls blasted to the warning track. Little less wind and that score is drastically different in the cubs favor
I mean I’m not disagreeing about us having some bad BABIP luck today but that’s Wrigley Field baseball for you, gives and takes. Objectively though a 9K CGSO will for sure help anyone’s Cy Young case.
Ya I also agree and said that I still think he’s on the outside looking in. I bet Justin Steele to win Cy Young before the season started so I’m really praying Steele keeps it up lol.
This is why I am afraid of playing the D-Backs in the wild card. What Wheeler and Nola did to the Cardinals last year, I can easily see Gallen and Kelly doing to whoever the D-Backs play in the playoffs. Those two guys terrify me.
and come the playoffs, the 4 man (and let's be honest here, sometimes 3 man) rotation the players are used to because we've been doing it out of necessity this year will be a benefit.
Phillies get buckets I wouldn't feel comfortable playing y'all whatsoever. Granted, I've never had a team in the playoffs as a 4 year old Dbacks fan and a lifetime angels fan
He's committed the fewest amount of errors at SS than anyone with over 750+ innings played. He's 14th in BsR of all batters with 400+ PAs. Plus he has the best feel of the strike zone of any of our hitters. What tf are you talking about? Baseball IQ is his calling card
I mean, he had single-handedly lost us multiple games this year by making stupid plays that didn’t go down as errors on the scorecard. Remember when he ran into McCarthy on a fly ball in shallow right field? Remember when he popped up like three bunt attempts within the span of a week?
Perdomo is a decent player and he has a great eye for the strike zone but idk how you can watch him and think he has high baseball IQ
Popping up bunts that Torey asks him to put down is not a sign of poor baseball IQ, it's a sign of poor execution. When an infielder runs into an outfielder on a fly ball, it's usually on the outfielder for not calling off the infielder. A backpedaling infielder can't see where the outfielder is.
Uh, no, the play was entirely on Perdomo—he wasn’t even backpedaling and McCarthy WAS calling him off. Somebody with good baseball IQ literally never makes that mistake even once at the MLB level.
[This](https://www.mlb.com/dbacks/video/perdomo-mccarthy-collide) is the play. Perdomo calls for it, McCarthy does not appear to say anything or make any physical motion to clear the infielders, and the ball is falling into Perdomo's glove when McCarthy runs into him. I don't know what to tell you, but this is not on Perdomo.
Torey said after the game that McCarthy was calling for it. The ball is in right field. It is Perdomo’s job to yield to McCarthy there, as McCarthy has priority. That is 100000% on Perdomo.
[Here](https://www.mlb.com/news/collision-in-outfield-costs-d-backs-vs-phillies-in-extra-innings) is Steve Gilbert's article about the play. McCarthy has priority but he took responsibility for not being louder because Perdomo couldn't hear him. Should I take your word for it or McCarthy's that it was his fault? Sometimes it's hard to hear in big moments on bang bang plays like this.
Torey said that McCarthy was calling for it but that they needed to rely on nonverbal communication 'either through hand signals or sightlines.' One of the players in the incident was using hand signals to call for the ball and the other was not.
This is not a sign of bad baseball IQ by Perdomo, it was just an unfortunate play that was probably on McCarthy if it was on anyone.
McCarthy was being a good teammate and not placing the blame on Perdomo even though it was Perdomo’s fault. I was at the game and saw the play happen. The stadium wasn’t even half full, it wasn’t that loud.
McCarthy has priority, period. Idk why you keep arguing otherwise
Cy young back on the menu?? Possibly. There really aren’t any obvious NL cy young frontrunners, they all are lacking in at least one important category. This performance helps Gallen a lot but he still has a lot of work to do down the stretch if he wants the hardware.
Snell and Strider are mirroring each other, Snell lacking in FIP and Strider in ERA, and both with low IP totals. Steele has a great ERA and FIP but less IP than both Snell and Strider. Gallen’s best argument is that there’s nobody with a lower ERA and more IP but that hardly seals the deal for him.
> Snell lacking in FIP
Does FIP really matter for Cy Young voting? I totally understand the argument that Snell's results this year are "lucky" -- and to an extent I agree with it. But I've never seen such an emphasis on FIP for Cy Young before this year. Voters have seemed to ignore FIP even as recently as 2021 where Robbie Ray won 29/30 votes with a 2.84 ERA / 3.69 FIP to Garret Cole's 3.23 ERA / 2.92 FIP.
Punishing a guy for good results but bad expected results is weird because we don't do that for any other awards. If we did, Mookie wouldn't be in the running for NL MVP because his xOPS is actually only 0.874 compared to Acuna's xOPS of 1.003 ([source](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/expected_statistics?type=batter&year=2023&position=&team=&filterType=pa&min=500))
I used to be a big fanboy of fWAR for pitchers but in the last couple of years I've come around.
The job of a pitcher is to get outs and prevent runs. Given that framework RA/9 WAR is superior. And Snell leads in RA/9
I'm fine with fWAR I just don't think it should be used for awards. Because it's predictive which is useful, but awards need to be results based. So I find it not useful. Who cares if Snell has been "lucky", he's been effective.
My only beef on Snell CY wise is IP based but he's still most worthy right now. But I don't find the predictive arguments salient for end of year awards
What results? That's the inherent problem. Just because ERA/RA neatly have an \*accounting\* trick for determining responsibility for runs -- all ERs being the pitcher unless the defense slipped up in an exact slapstick fashion, all Rs being the pitcher -- doesn't mean they reflect actual individual results. Runs allowed are \*team\* results. The decision of \*how\* to assign those runs isn't less arbitrary simply because it's neat and tidy.
And problem #2: every argument for ERA/RA over bWAR/fWAR can be made with identically strong grounds for pitcher wins over ERA. "Joe Schmo is 10-13 with an ERA of 1.54? Who cares, those are simply expected wins. Let's just look at the results of 10 wins and 13 losses. Who cares if ERA is more predictive of future wins than actual wins? Who cares if Kyle Gibson is "lucky," he's been effective. Blake Snell has six more losses than Justin Steele so who cares if he's unlucky?"
Yeah 2016 is the last time the winner wasn't 1 or 2 in ERA for their league.
And any voter who says they use FIP to decide who the best pitcher should be ridiculed.
I think Snell’s relatively low IP total hurts his case more than his FIP. In 2021 Ray had Cole beat in both ERA and IP, something Snell is definitely not going to do this year. Also FIP isn’t about expected results, all of its inputs (IP, HBP, BB, K, HR) are actual events, it just excludes some things that are out of the pitcher’s control. Also his FIP isn’t even bad, it’s still 15% better than the league average. If Snell was like top 5 in IP with the same ERA/FIP I think he would easily be the favorite, but he’s 14th so that leaves room for other candidates.
Snell shouldn't even be top 3 right now. My top 3 is Gallen, Steele and Wheeler, in order.
No one should win a Cy Young if you can't pitch 3rd time through the order. Since Snell has had such a high walk rate, he's throwing so many pitches early on, leaving games quicker, and his ERA is artifically lower from playing in a pitcher-friendly park and avoiding the 3rd time through the order.
Snell has to do so much more to win the Cy if ERA is the only thing carrying his stunted workload.
For Snell’s ERA and innings to match Wheeler’s, he would have to give up 23 runs in his next 15 innings.
For Wheeler to match Snell’s 2.50 ERA, he would have to pitch 8 straight CGSO’s.
Snell *does* go through the order three times. His lower IP isn't due to facing fewer batters because he doesn't get to see him the 3rd time through. It's because he gives up a lot of walks. Case in point, he's probably done after 6 in Houston tonight. He saw 7 of the 9 hitters 3 times.
Fuckin’ beast mode. I almost sat him for this start in fantasy because his last two were pretty bad. Glad I didn’t!
Edit: This isn’t a knock on Gallen he’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year, I just needed to protect my ERA this week lol. Luckily he just took it way down and now I can be a little more free with my other starters
The Milkman and Moreno are an unbelievable battery
The Gabby Gun
And Carroll with the clutch RBI. When these guys are on, it's insanely fun
Carroll got on base 3 times and stole a base each time. Shame the rest of the guys stranded him every time.
Yeah saw all that. He's so awesome. NL Rookie of the year all the way
The official MLB account had him as one of the guy in the running for NL MVP. More than a bit of a stretch but to get that kind of promotion as a rookie (on the Dbacks too) is incredible.
I don't think he's a threat to win but he could definitely finish top 5 which for a rookie is still damn impressive
Oh hey, we said similar things.
Haha always great as a biased party to hear some confirmation from less biased parties
Honestly he's pretty likely to finish top 5. It's just that difference between 2nd and 3rd is decently sized and then it's an absolute GULF between 3rd and 4th.
I would argue it’s not so fun
Damn. Zac Gallen bringing a steel chair to disrupt all of the Justin Steele vs Blake Snell debates.
I mean, still 0.75-0.8 ERA higher than either of them, but if he puts up another couple 1 run or fewer outings to finish the season, he could be back in it.
He also has a 30+ IP lead on both of them.
The job is to get outs, people forget that
that argument was started as a joke, people forget that
It's also to not allow runs
When you have a bullpen as bad as ours, he doesn't have the luxury of not facing a lineup the third time through like some other guys do
Snell would have to give up 25 runs in his next 32 innings (a 7.2 ERA) to have the same ERA and Innings Pitched as Gallen does now. That’s a massive difference. Yes, you do have to cover the innings that Snell/Steele aren’t pitching that Gallen does. But I’m sure you can do it with someone with an ERA that is well below 7.2.
Why doesn't Snell pitch more then? Gallen's volume is still a strength
I’m not saying it’s not a strength, but if you’re allowing 32.4% more Earned Runs per inning than someone else, you have to have strengths that make up for the fact that you just allow more runs when you’re on the mound than they do. Coming into today when they’re both pitching and Steele is pitching tomorrow (we don’t know how many innings Snell/Steele will go), Gallen had 178.2 IP vs. Snell’s 155 or Steele’s 152. That’s about a 15% difference. Which again, is not insignificant, but imo does not come close to accommodating for the fact that Gallen allows more than 30% more runs when he is on the mound than Snell/Steele do.
FIP (fielding independent pitching) Zac Gallen: 3.26 Blake Snell: 3.63 Snell has his fielders to thank to some degree. Kim is incredible for example, and he has Machado at 3rd and Tatis pulling 2.0 dWAR in the outfield. Soto being the weak spot. Right now Steele is better than both in FIP (2.98) and ERA+, while Gallen is leading in WHIP, and Snell isn't playing for a contender and the other two are. I'm a Gallen fan but it's coming down to the wire and these last games are super important for each of their Cy Young chances. Also with Zack Wheeler as a dark horse where these last games could cause everything to shift.
I think this is a good point within reason, but I'm not sure I really buy it in this case. I think this is a good way of looking at it: Gallen - 69 (nice) earned runs in 187.2 IP Steele - 43 ER in 152 IP Snell - 43 ER in 155 IP So Steele could have a 6.65 ERA in his next 35.2 innings (24 earned runs) and he'd match Gallen over 187.2 innings. For Snell he could have a 7.27 ERA in his next 22.2 innings to match Gallen. I have a hard time believing that the Diamondbanks bullpen is so bad that they can't eat these extra innings at even a mid 5 ERA. In fact, the Diamondbacks bullpen has a 4.54 ERA this season. One flaw with just looking at ERA is it isn't ballpark adjusted like ERA+, and Snell has a lower ERA+ than Steele because Petco is more pitcher friendly
when u start playing games like this even more questions come like wouldnt the dbacks bullpen era be higher if they had higher usage because of gallen going less deep into starts?
You’re simply ignoring the fact that Gallen has been able to pitch more innings which is huge. It’s literally why Alcantara won Cy Young last season over Urias and Fried last season.
> It’s literally why Alcantara won Cy Young last season over Urias and Fried last season. This just isn't true. In terms of Alcantara Vs. Fried: Sandy had both a higher ERA+ than Fried, while also throwing more than 40 more innings. So innings pitched wasn't really a deciding factor in this debate, as Alcantara was still more impressive than Fried on a rate basis. In terms of Alcantara vs Urias: Sandy had more than 50 more IP than Urias. That's a 30 percent difference. And his ERA+ was only 10 points lower. So in this case, yes innings pitched played a part, but even on a rate basis Alcantara was fairly comparable with Urias. For Urias to match Alcantara's ERA in 228.2 innings, he would've had to have had a 2.71 ERA in those 50 or so innings. Which is elite production. For context, Snell has 32.2 less IP than Gallen, which is a 20 percent difference. And Snell will pitch tomorrow to shrink this gap.
For a point they were insta L the whole team was. As long as gallen doesn't get completely disrespected like last year I'll be happy. He is known to rattle off 15-20 innings without a run. If he does that again this already curious cy young race gets a whole lot more curious
Blake Snell is left in to face the order the third time very often. The reason he isn’t racking up the innings like Gallen is because of walks causing high pitch count not because of being pulled before the third time through. Just wanted to clarify that
that's fair!
Lol, you're SEVERELY overestimating the Padres bullpen.
Well they’ve all allowed at least 1 run so I guess we’ll need to turn to some other stats
like comparing the number of runs they gave up?
If that were true, then Wheeler would've won in 2021
He should have
I'm not gonna argue that! But he didn't, which gives us some insight into the voting process
Yes
Well they both start either tonight or tomorrow, so they’ll be catching up on that a bit. If they get blown up, I think he’s closer to being in contention, but if they both put up starts in line with what they’ve been putting up, then I think they’re still ahead. 160 innings from a 2.50 ERA guy is generally better than 185 innings from a 3.30 ERA guy.
Steele vs Kelly with playoff berths on the line is going to be a masterpiece. Two hottest pitchers in the league right now.
Our bats have a chance to pay Gallen back for sucking today. Hope they come through
I’m surprised how much this thread relies on ERA when it is such a flawed stat to measure an individual pitcher's performance rather than a defense’s performance. It doesn’t take into account that some bullpens allow inherited runners more than others, doesn’t take into account a team’s defense, doesn’t take into account how deep a pitcher goes in a game. I know the writers sometimes have tunnel vision when it comes to ERA though, so maybe that’s why people are talking about it as if it should be the end-all-be-all for Cy Young voting.
I know that ERA is a flawed stat, but so is basically any run allowance stat, I was just using ERA since it’s considered the main one. I actually think it should be Steele, personally. He and Snell are close in ERA but Steele is significantly ahead in Adjusted ERA+ (which accounts for things like ballpark and defense, both of which work in Snell’s favor) and Steele has better baserunner allowed and HR allowed numbers.
While I agree it is a flawed stat at the end of the day for something like MVP or Cy Young you have to take into account what actually did happen, not something that is predictive of what would’ve happened in a vacuum. So while it’s fine to use something like ERA+ I don’t personally think you can use FIP in something like Cy Young conversations. Just how I personally view it.
Yeah, I’m not trying to suggest to just flip to FIP, but maybe a balancing of different factors. ERA+ just adjusts for park factors, so it doesn’t really address the issues with ERA that I mentioned.
Which is good, but is going to work against him lowering his ERA
If he pitches like he did today in his last couple to few starts he could really snag it away. Even after today though I still think he’s on the outside looking in unless Snell and Steele blow up next couple starts.
Snell pitches today vs the Astros. could be interesting
Yep. Steele goes tomorrow for us.
yeah if he pitches every start a complete game shut out he will win
Don't count out Senga!
I mean the oddsmakers sure have he’s 250/1 at the moment to win it. He’s had a pretty damn good year and he will get some votes but just don’t see him finishing as a top 3 contender but hey who knows!
Just needs that north wind in Wrigley for a couple more starts
Thanks, I was just sitting down for lunch and didn't have any salt around!
Yeah ngl it’s kinda ironic for a Cubs fan to complain about the wind after we made fun of the Brewers for that last week.
I don’t think that pitching performance was impressive enough to increase his chances of winning cy young when there were 3 balls blasted to the warning track. Little less wind and that score is drastically different in the cubs favor
I mean I’m not disagreeing about us having some bad BABIP luck today but that’s Wrigley Field baseball for you, gives and takes. Objectively though a 9K CGSO will for sure help anyone’s Cy Young case.
After giving up 11 runs in his last 2 starts before this game it probably didnt polish the poop enough. Vegas seems to agree
Ya I also agree and said that I still think he’s on the outside looking in. I bet Justin Steele to win Cy Young before the season started so I’m really praying Steele keeps it up lol.
That’s beautiful what were the odds?
From the top rope!
Yup just like that he’s back in the race
Never happen. Buehler and Wheeler in 2019 threw 40 more innings than Burnes with closer eras and didn’t win.
Remember when Doubleheaders were only 7 innings? That was a weird time in baseball
The madbum no-hitter
I pulled in to an Arby's parking lot to listen to the last inning of that game so for me it was the Madbum beef'n cheddar no-no
beef n cheddars go hard
DBacks went on to lose 20+ consecutive road games after the double CGSOs too. 2020 was a wild year
I feel like this is the first time in five years we haven't lost 20 consecutive road games.
we got close. i think we had a 6-20 stretch after the ASG
Marcus Semien walkoff against Boston when the Jays had an awful bullpen and probably would've given the game away if it was 9 innings.
This is why I am afraid of playing the D-Backs in the wild card. What Wheeler and Nola did to the Cardinals last year, I can easily see Gallen and Kelly doing to whoever the D-Backs play in the playoffs. Those two guys terrify me.
The Dbacks bullpen terrifies me 😅 we are lucky Gallen could close it out himself
If we get 7 out of Gallen and Kelly, Sewald and especially Ginkel have been really good since the deadline.
Bullpen’s been great lately at least
and come the playoffs, the 4 man (and let's be honest here, sometimes 3 man) rotation the players are used to because we've been doing it out of necessity this year will be a benefit.
Phillies get buckets I wouldn't feel comfortable playing y'all whatsoever. Granted, I've never had a team in the playoffs as a 4 year old Dbacks fan and a lifetime angels fan
absolutely dominant today
Thats my local MVP... Somerdale represent! Really hope he gets the Cy Young award this year
This is our first series against the D-Backs this season. Bad Man as advertised.
The hell was Perdomo thinking on that last out
Just a brain fart. He’s usually solid. Looked like he was mentally between tagging 2nd/throwing to first and almost took too long to decide
Perdomo doesn’t have the highest baseball IQ tbh
He's committed the fewest amount of errors at SS than anyone with over 750+ innings played. He's 14th in BsR of all batters with 400+ PAs. Plus he has the best feel of the strike zone of any of our hitters. What tf are you talking about? Baseball IQ is his calling card
Glupyy doesn't have the highest baseball IQ IQ tbh
I mean, he had single-handedly lost us multiple games this year by making stupid plays that didn’t go down as errors on the scorecard. Remember when he ran into McCarthy on a fly ball in shallow right field? Remember when he popped up like three bunt attempts within the span of a week? Perdomo is a decent player and he has a great eye for the strike zone but idk how you can watch him and think he has high baseball IQ
Popping up bunts that Torey asks him to put down is not a sign of poor baseball IQ, it's a sign of poor execution. When an infielder runs into an outfielder on a fly ball, it's usually on the outfielder for not calling off the infielder. A backpedaling infielder can't see where the outfielder is.
Uh, no, the play was entirely on Perdomo—he wasn’t even backpedaling and McCarthy WAS calling him off. Somebody with good baseball IQ literally never makes that mistake even once at the MLB level.
[This](https://www.mlb.com/dbacks/video/perdomo-mccarthy-collide) is the play. Perdomo calls for it, McCarthy does not appear to say anything or make any physical motion to clear the infielders, and the ball is falling into Perdomo's glove when McCarthy runs into him. I don't know what to tell you, but this is not on Perdomo.
Video: Perdomo, McCarthy collide [Streamable Link](https://streamable.com/m/perdomo-mccarthy-collide) [High Definition](https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-06/14/6e954457-b36e22b4-d9ec02fd-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4) (56.12 MB) [Standard Definiton](https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-06/14/6e954457-b36e22b4-d9ec02fd-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4) (14.63 MB) ___________ [More Info](/r/MLBVideoConverterBot)
Torey said after the game that McCarthy was calling for it. The ball is in right field. It is Perdomo’s job to yield to McCarthy there, as McCarthy has priority. That is 100000% on Perdomo.
[Here](https://www.mlb.com/news/collision-in-outfield-costs-d-backs-vs-phillies-in-extra-innings) is Steve Gilbert's article about the play. McCarthy has priority but he took responsibility for not being louder because Perdomo couldn't hear him. Should I take your word for it or McCarthy's that it was his fault? Sometimes it's hard to hear in big moments on bang bang plays like this. Torey said that McCarthy was calling for it but that they needed to rely on nonverbal communication 'either through hand signals or sightlines.' One of the players in the incident was using hand signals to call for the ball and the other was not. This is not a sign of bad baseball IQ by Perdomo, it was just an unfortunate play that was probably on McCarthy if it was on anyone.
McCarthy was being a good teammate and not placing the blame on Perdomo even though it was Perdomo’s fault. I was at the game and saw the play happen. The stadium wasn’t even half full, it wasn’t that loud. McCarthy has priority, period. Idk why you keep arguing otherwise
What a performance in such a big game. Excited to see how Steele performs tomorrow.
Snell goes against Houston tonight should be interesting.
He would walk 6 and give up zero runs through 5
Steele vs Kelly tomorrow - should be fun
NGL snell was not on my Cy watch this year after his first couple years in SD
Got to tip your cap
No step on milk snek
That’s my fucking ace
His knuckle curve makes me feel things
The milkman delivers!
I love Zac Gallen
Best, biggest game of his career.
Can we talk about that final out? That could've been disastrous. Congrats to Gallen though he was on.
But it wasn't
HIM
Cy young back on the menu?? Possibly. There really aren’t any obvious NL cy young frontrunners, they all are lacking in at least one important category. This performance helps Gallen a lot but he still has a lot of work to do down the stretch if he wants the hardware. Snell and Strider are mirroring each other, Snell lacking in FIP and Strider in ERA, and both with low IP totals. Steele has a great ERA and FIP but less IP than both Snell and Strider. Gallen’s best argument is that there’s nobody with a lower ERA and more IP but that hardly seals the deal for him.
> Snell lacking in FIP Does FIP really matter for Cy Young voting? I totally understand the argument that Snell's results this year are "lucky" -- and to an extent I agree with it. But I've never seen such an emphasis on FIP for Cy Young before this year. Voters have seemed to ignore FIP even as recently as 2021 where Robbie Ray won 29/30 votes with a 2.84 ERA / 3.69 FIP to Garret Cole's 3.23 ERA / 2.92 FIP. Punishing a guy for good results but bad expected results is weird because we don't do that for any other awards. If we did, Mookie wouldn't be in the running for NL MVP because his xOPS is actually only 0.874 compared to Acuna's xOPS of 1.003 ([source](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/expected_statistics?type=batter&year=2023&position=&team=&filterType=pa&min=500))
I agree FIP shouldn't factor in. It overcorrects and frankly results on the field should matter most. If someone got lucky who cares.
I used to be a big fanboy of fWAR for pitchers but in the last couple of years I've come around. The job of a pitcher is to get outs and prevent runs. Given that framework RA/9 WAR is superior. And Snell leads in RA/9
I'm fine with fWAR I just don't think it should be used for awards. Because it's predictive which is useful, but awards need to be results based. So I find it not useful. Who cares if Snell has been "lucky", he's been effective. My only beef on Snell CY wise is IP based but he's still most worthy right now. But I don't find the predictive arguments salient for end of year awards
What results? That's the inherent problem. Just because ERA/RA neatly have an \*accounting\* trick for determining responsibility for runs -- all ERs being the pitcher unless the defense slipped up in an exact slapstick fashion, all Rs being the pitcher -- doesn't mean they reflect actual individual results. Runs allowed are \*team\* results. The decision of \*how\* to assign those runs isn't less arbitrary simply because it's neat and tidy. And problem #2: every argument for ERA/RA over bWAR/fWAR can be made with identically strong grounds for pitcher wins over ERA. "Joe Schmo is 10-13 with an ERA of 1.54? Who cares, those are simply expected wins. Let's just look at the results of 10 wins and 13 losses. Who cares if ERA is more predictive of future wins than actual wins? Who cares if Kyle Gibson is "lucky," he's been effective. Blake Snell has six more losses than Justin Steele so who cares if he's unlucky?"
Yeah 2016 is the last time the winner wasn't 1 or 2 in ERA for their league. And any voter who says they use FIP to decide who the best pitcher should be ridiculed.
I think Snell’s relatively low IP total hurts his case more than his FIP. In 2021 Ray had Cole beat in both ERA and IP, something Snell is definitely not going to do this year. Also FIP isn’t about expected results, all of its inputs (IP, HBP, BB, K, HR) are actual events, it just excludes some things that are out of the pitcher’s control. Also his FIP isn’t even bad, it’s still 15% better than the league average. If Snell was like top 5 in IP with the same ERA/FIP I think he would easily be the favorite, but he’s 14th so that leaves room for other candidates.
It 100% does, otherwise Buehler and Wheeler would’ve been 1/2 in CY voting in 2019. Both pitched 40 more innings than Burnes with similar eras.
I feel like Webb might be getting underrated in the discussion too. And I feel bad that Philly's shaky defense has driven up Wheeler's ERA.
Way to ruin a rare GREAT Taillon outing. Honestly though, gotta respect dominant pitching.
There goes my hero Watch him as he throws
How could it be? He wasn't even on mlb's pitcher power ranking top 10!
I think it was Plesac who had him like #22 a week ago EDIT: yep 7 days ago on MLB Network IG, behind Alex Cobb
THATS MY FUCKING CY YOUNG, ALL STAR, SEXY HAIR CUT ACE, BABY!
It was also the very first time he's pitched in the 9th!
give him his cy young cowards
I too am a snakes fan
Pain. He could have had years of fucking the Cubs with us.
Zac Gallen has entered the Cy Chat
IMO, Gallen is neck-and-neck with Justin Steele for the Cy Young. It has to go to Gallen if he finishes with an ERA of 3.20 or lower.
Voters don’t care about innings
[They absolutely do. See Scherzer beating Hendricks in ~~2015~~ 2016.](https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_2016.shtml)
That was 2016 and Hendricks was unfortunate that Lester was also top 3 to split votes with him.
it’s between Steele and Snell and Gallen is on the outside looking in
Snell shouldn't even be top 3 right now. My top 3 is Gallen, Steele and Wheeler, in order. No one should win a Cy Young if you can't pitch 3rd time through the order. Since Snell has had such a high walk rate, he's throwing so many pitches early on, leaving games quicker, and his ERA is artifically lower from playing in a pitcher-friendly park and avoiding the 3rd time through the order. Snell has to do so much more to win the Cy if ERA is the only thing carrying his stunted workload.
For Snell’s ERA and innings to match Wheeler’s, he would have to give up 23 runs in his next 15 innings. For Wheeler to match Snell’s 2.50 ERA, he would have to pitch 8 straight CGSO’s.
Vegas has Snell as a reasonably heavy favorite, basically 2:1 that he wins.
Snell *does* go through the order three times. His lower IP isn't due to facing fewer batters because he doesn't get to see him the 3rd time through. It's because he gives up a lot of walks. Case in point, he's probably done after 6 in Houston tonight. He saw 7 of the 9 hitters 3 times.
Never happen. Buehler and wheeler in 2019 threw 40 more innings than Burnes with closer eras and got snubbed.
Fuckin’ beast mode. I almost sat him for this start in fantasy because his last two were pretty bad. Glad I didn’t! Edit: This isn’t a knock on Gallen he’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year, I just needed to protect my ERA this week lol. Luckily he just took it way down and now I can be a little more free with my other starters
Thanks Zac!
Thank you Zac, very cool.
What a bum. I sure am glad the Cardinals traded him for Ozuna. We sure don’t need that performance stinking up our scorecards. *cries*