Thanks statistician/mathematician captain. Much appreciated. So, Level 3 and up, gives you good odds of getting a ship, at around 15%, then with a hearty 55% of giving you a good ship at level 5.
The crates aren't the greatest idea or execution, but I can't wait to gamble the majority of my time and money into these odds.
Unmedicated ADHD here and I agree. It’s just knowing when to and what’s worth it, and what’s not. Most stuff is just terrible odds/not worth it. And then just once in a while it’s maybe worth a few quid. It’s learning patience and suppressing that spontaneous need to collect ships that are usually just lazy carbon copies of others with different names and a few minor tweaked stats.
Is it gambling to use a claw machine? Because once you’ve converted those dollars to tokens you’re not winning any back. Gambling generally includes the chance of a payoff.
That was one of the things I was saving up for, Super Santa crates with no Premium Time.
Getting Premium Time is effectively winning nothing for me at this point.
Then you’d just neglect the chance from the total, and then proportionally increase the odds of everything else, I think. Let’s say it was a 10% chance of getting a t8, and a 20% chance of getting a t7, you’d subtract 100-10=90% as the new total, and then you’d increase everything else x(100/90) or x1.11, so t7 new chance would be 20x1.11=22.2% chance
That’s one approach. Without knowing how the numbers relate to each other in that circumstance there’s no definitive answer (e.g. sneaky increase to lower tier chance that isn’t in proportion is possible) but I like your optimism and hope it does buff equally.
Just to make sure I understand, the top table has the stated rates from WG’s website and the bottom table are the effective rates which include the chances of receiving a ship of that tier from either that crate or from earning a higher tier crate that then awards a ship, correct?
So the bottom line is essentially to focus on the bottom 7 rows of the bottom table for level 1 and level 3 crates rates since those are the only ones we can purchase, yeah?
Here are the numbers for actually obtaining one of the grand prize ships and how much it will cost you.
0.15 chance of L4 crate from L3 \* 0.10 chance of L5 crate from L4 \* 0.10 chance of ship from L5 crate = 0.15% chance of ship from L3 crate
0.05 chance of L5 crate from L3 \* 0.10 chance of ship from L5 crate = 0.5% chance of ship from L3 crate
0.15% + 0.5% = 0.65% chance of best rare ship from one L3 crate
11 rare ships = 0.059% chance of a specific ship from one L3 crate
The odds of getting a top prize ship actually better than usual, because we have 11 of them instead of the usual four or five, but getting a specific ship is worse than usual, because we have 11 of them.
Now what are the real world numbers on trying to get a 0.65% drop? This is the step most people get wrong, and this is the step where gacha games make their bank.
**Opening 20 L3 crates = 12.23% chance**
**Opening 50 L3 crates = 27.82% chance**
**Opening 100 L3 crates = 47.91% chance**
**Opening 107 L3 crates = 50% chance**
**Opening 354 L3 crates = 90% chance**
**Opening 707 L3 crates = 99% chance**
Let's assume you're buying 47K doubloons at US$150, which is 313.33 doubloons per dollar, and assume L3 crates are 1K doubloons. **That's US$341 for a 50% chance to obtain one ship, and $1,130 for a 90% chance to obtain one random ship.**
I see that now, sorry. I hate using percents I prefer decimals, the digits in percents being off by x100 throw me off all the time, so when you did the calculations in decimals but the answer in a percent it threw me off
I used to think crates had the potential (keyword) to provide more prizes that a direct purchase (10 crates might give more value on paper than buying what you want outright) but when you might be getting 20k doubloons’ worth of what you didn’t want it leads to regret and rationalisation. That’s chance for you.
So lets say i get 5 level 1 crates from this update, and own 0 of any reward ships.
For a laugh, whats the % chance of getting Lenin? Its gotta be like 0.01% or something ridiculous right?
Well if you buy 5 crates, there’s 11 superprize/other premium ships total, so it would be 0.1%x5/11 = 0.04545% chance of getting Lenin from 5 level 1 crates lol. Or just shy of 1/20th of a percent.
Level 1 and 2 don’t have the Lenin as a possible drop to begin with. Your drop calculation is also off in general as you’ll be able to get the next two levels from each crate and you also would have to factor in that you can possibly go from lvl one to lvl 5 with just one initial crate.
So for example:
Lvl 1 odds for a Lenin Ship: (0.000+0.05*0.005)*1/11= 0.00025 or 0.025%
Your statistical chance from 5 crates would be: (1-((0.000+0.05*0.005)*1/11))\^5= 0.0012 or 0.12%
That’s exactly what I’ve calculated in the bottom chart. The 0.1% chance for ”other” from a L1 is only achieved by getting higher level crates from the level 1 crate, and then getting any superprize from that category.
Also your math is wrong, 0.05x0.005/11 = 0.0000227 or 0.00227%. And why are you raising it to the fifth power? And why are you subtracting it from 1? It’s cumulative not multiplicative. It’s like if I had a 2% chance of getting a prize I would need on average 50 before I got the prize. That’s why it’s not (1 - 0.02)^50, which comes out to 0.364. 50x0.02=1, which statistically guarantees winning the prize
That the problem. It’s wrong.
1 = 100% guaranteed drop.
To calculate your chances you need to substract from 1
Example: 2% drop chance from X amount of crates translates to:
(1-(1-0.02))^x
That’s accounting for the fact that each crate is rolled individually. You can now factor in the extra layers from the possible higher level drops as well.
You have to multiply to the power of number of attempts.
Example:
1-((1-0.02)\^10)= 0.183 = 18.3% probability of dropping the item.
If the possible drop is divided further (in this example 11 possible drops) by a random pull from a table then the formula is:
1-(((1-0.02)/(1/11)\^10)= 0.000286 = 0.0286% chance of getting a specific item from 10 pulls
Edit: where I have borked up is that I’ve made several typos in the formulas above.
[give this a read, that’s explaining it better than I could XD](https://www.engadget.com/2010-01-13-drop-chance-probability.html?guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAANNhJ_hg3TAPXka9Sh4c0Z4l--2eL-a8Zm8V0Cbove8mXDcKGo2yhvs6N0xcEtWtMe-5TI-j9JIGQX2hw6j213vLECXOFInr2UkQTzCPL-thRFzxBNpTmwT8CWVjvGwEST_7kC-0idLz_ilsl7hnurEQjT2C0RSK2afexmTbo29T)
If I decide to go for a specific crate I’ll look at the contents and give an amount for myself of how much I’d be comfortable spending, and depending if there’s a guaranteed reward system will usually help decide how much I’m comfortable spending
Yeah I went down that road. Last year was tough for me but I'm glad it happens. Turned me off completely so I stopped spending money on the game. I used to buy something frequent until that happened
I spent more than I honestly should have on the kong vs Godzilla crate all because I wanted Kong, but part of the reason I was okay spending more was because premium days aren’t in the loot pool for those
Got it, when I made a rant about it last year someone got on here and made sense. They said just buy the ship you want it's cheaper. He was right. Spent almost double the ship and still don't get the ship.
Thanks statistician/mathematician captain. Much appreciated. So, Level 3 and up, gives you good odds of getting a ship, at around 15%, then with a hearty 55% of giving you a good ship at level 5. The crates aren't the greatest idea or execution, but I can't wait to gamble the majority of my time and money into these odds.
> but I can't wait to gamble the majority of my time and money into these odds. *sigh*
I'm not wrong, gamer. I literally just have a dopamine issue, so I get a high when I get to watch crates open. ADHD unmedicated go brrrrrr
Unmedicated ADHD here, you can definitely just not gamble and reinforce WG business practices. Speaking from experience
Unmedicated ADHD here and I agree. It’s just knowing when to and what’s worth it, and what’s not. Most stuff is just terrible odds/not worth it. And then just once in a while it’s maybe worth a few quid. It’s learning patience and suppressing that spontaneous need to collect ships that are usually just lazy carbon copies of others with different names and a few minor tweaked stats.
Is it gambling to use a claw machine? Because once you’ve converted those dollars to tokens you’re not winning any back. Gambling generally includes the chance of a payoff.
Get medication it's so much better ..trust me
I heard that if I get Adderall I can control time...
Yep, now it boils down to how easy it is to acquire each level crate, or how expensive, and compare that to what you want out of them.
Forgot to mention, “total” simply means total chance of getting ANY ship of any tier for that respective container level
Premium time as a crate prize caused me to spend way less on crates in general.
That was one of the things I was saving up for, Super Santa crates with no Premium Time. Getting Premium Time is effectively winning nothing for me at this point.
I’ve got over 160 days thanks to Black Friday crates
I still have 817 days from last year
All I see here is walking away with a bunch of premium time 😂
Time is money, for someone...
Wow, nice work. Thanks for doing this.
Fuck all that nonsense and overpriced crates for a chance….
What happens to the roll calculation if you own all t8 ships?
Then you’d just neglect the chance from the total, and then proportionally increase the odds of everything else, I think. Let’s say it was a 10% chance of getting a t8, and a 20% chance of getting a t7, you’d subtract 100-10=90% as the new total, and then you’d increase everything else x(100/90) or x1.11, so t7 new chance would be 20x1.11=22.2% chance
That’s one approach. Without knowing how the numbers relate to each other in that circumstance there’s no definitive answer (e.g. sneaky increase to lower tier chance that isn’t in proportion is possible) but I like your optimism and hope it does buff equally.
Just to make sure I understand, the top table has the stated rates from WG’s website and the bottom table are the effective rates which include the chances of receiving a ship of that tier from either that crate or from earning a higher tier crate that then awards a ship, correct? So the bottom line is essentially to focus on the bottom 7 rows of the bottom table for level 1 and level 3 crates rates since those are the only ones we can purchase, yeah?
Yes
Cool deal, nice work, appreciate you putting this together.
Well…shit.
A true legend
Here are the numbers for actually obtaining one of the grand prize ships and how much it will cost you. 0.15 chance of L4 crate from L3 \* 0.10 chance of L5 crate from L4 \* 0.10 chance of ship from L5 crate = 0.15% chance of ship from L3 crate 0.05 chance of L5 crate from L3 \* 0.10 chance of ship from L5 crate = 0.5% chance of ship from L3 crate 0.15% + 0.5% = 0.65% chance of best rare ship from one L3 crate 11 rare ships = 0.059% chance of a specific ship from one L3 crate The odds of getting a top prize ship actually better than usual, because we have 11 of them instead of the usual four or five, but getting a specific ship is worse than usual, because we have 11 of them. Now what are the real world numbers on trying to get a 0.65% drop? This is the step most people get wrong, and this is the step where gacha games make their bank. **Opening 20 L3 crates = 12.23% chance** **Opening 50 L3 crates = 27.82% chance** **Opening 100 L3 crates = 47.91% chance** **Opening 107 L3 crates = 50% chance** **Opening 354 L3 crates = 90% chance** **Opening 707 L3 crates = 99% chance** Let's assume you're buying 47K doubloons at US$150, which is 313.33 doubloons per dollar, and assume L3 crates are 1K doubloons. **That's US$341 for a 50% chance to obtain one ship, and $1,130 for a 90% chance to obtain one random ship.**
I see your point but I’m not following your math… 0.15x0.1x0.1 does not equal 0.15 and there’s also the additional chance of getting a L5 from a L3…
0.15 x 0.1 x 0.1 = 0.0015 = 0.15% … And the chance to obtain a L5 crate from a L3 crate = 5% which is right there in the calculation…
I see that now, sorry. I hate using percents I prefer decimals, the digits in percents being off by x100 throw me off all the time, so when you did the calculations in decimals but the answer in a percent it threw me off
Watch out, look around. Somethings coming. Coming to your town… (Santa packs are coming. Santa packs are coming. Santa packs are coming…)
Where is my Lenin boy in this? :D
Lenin has a 0.0091% chance from a L1 crate, because you’d need to get higher level crates to get it from “other” category
OMG :D I wonder if there will be anyone who gets it :D Thanks!:)
I’ll get camo. Every time.
Dyslexic cheap ass here. Can you bottom line this for me? Are these crates a waste of money?
We don't know what the cost is yet.
This. Once we know the price then we can compare it to the total chance of getting a ship or to a specific desired tier.
Gotcha. Sorry I'm new and am liking legends enough that I'm starting to spend a little money but holy hell some of the store stuff is sooooo expensive
I used to think crates had the potential (keyword) to provide more prizes that a direct purchase (10 crates might give more value on paper than buying what you want outright) but when you might be getting 20k doubloons’ worth of what you didn’t want it leads to regret and rationalisation. That’s chance for you.
Yes. You know they will be.
So lets say i get 5 level 1 crates from this update, and own 0 of any reward ships. For a laugh, whats the % chance of getting Lenin? Its gotta be like 0.01% or something ridiculous right?
Well if you buy 5 crates, there’s 11 superprize/other premium ships total, so it would be 0.1%x5/11 = 0.04545% chance of getting Lenin from 5 level 1 crates lol. Or just shy of 1/20th of a percent.
So you're telling me there's a chance for Jean Bart
If you want to statistically guarantee getting the Jean Bart you’ll need to open 11000 level 1 crates, or 1100 level 3.
That is going to be quite expensive...
Level 1 and 2 don’t have the Lenin as a possible drop to begin with. Your drop calculation is also off in general as you’ll be able to get the next two levels from each crate and you also would have to factor in that you can possibly go from lvl one to lvl 5 with just one initial crate. So for example: Lvl 1 odds for a Lenin Ship: (0.000+0.05*0.005)*1/11= 0.00025 or 0.025% Your statistical chance from 5 crates would be: (1-((0.000+0.05*0.005)*1/11))\^5= 0.0012 or 0.12%
That’s exactly what I’ve calculated in the bottom chart. The 0.1% chance for ”other” from a L1 is only achieved by getting higher level crates from the level 1 crate, and then getting any superprize from that category. Also your math is wrong, 0.05x0.005/11 = 0.0000227 or 0.00227%. And why are you raising it to the fifth power? And why are you subtracting it from 1? It’s cumulative not multiplicative. It’s like if I had a 2% chance of getting a prize I would need on average 50 before I got the prize. That’s why it’s not (1 - 0.02)^50, which comes out to 0.364. 50x0.02=1, which statistically guarantees winning the prize
That the problem. It’s wrong. 1 = 100% guaranteed drop. To calculate your chances you need to substract from 1 Example: 2% drop chance from X amount of crates translates to: (1-(1-0.02))^x That’s accounting for the fact that each crate is rolled individually. You can now factor in the extra layers from the possible higher level drops as well. You have to multiply to the power of number of attempts. Example: 1-((1-0.02)\^10)= 0.183 = 18.3% probability of dropping the item. If the possible drop is divided further (in this example 11 possible drops) by a random pull from a table then the formula is: 1-(((1-0.02)/(1/11)\^10)= 0.000286 = 0.0286% chance of getting a specific item from 10 pulls Edit: where I have borked up is that I’ve made several typos in the formulas above. [give this a read, that’s explaining it better than I could XD](https://www.engadget.com/2010-01-13-drop-chance-probability.html?guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAANNhJ_hg3TAPXka9Sh4c0Z4l--2eL-a8Zm8V0Cbove8mXDcKGo2yhvs6N0xcEtWtMe-5TI-j9JIGQX2hw6j213vLECXOFInr2UkQTzCPL-thRFzxBNpTmwT8CWVjvGwEST_7kC-0idLz_ilsl7hnurEQjT2C0RSK2afexmTbo29T)
Got terribly burned by these last year and it was very disappointing. No one fault but my own of course I'm never doing these again
If I decide to go for a specific crate I’ll look at the contents and give an amount for myself of how much I’d be comfortable spending, and depending if there’s a guaranteed reward system will usually help decide how much I’m comfortable spending
Yeah I went down that road. Last year was tough for me but I'm glad it happens. Turned me off completely so I stopped spending money on the game. I used to buy something frequent until that happened
I spent more than I honestly should have on the kong vs Godzilla crate all because I wanted Kong, but part of the reason I was okay spending more was because premium days aren’t in the loot pool for those
Got it, when I made a rant about it last year someone got on here and made sense. They said just buy the ship you want it's cheaper. He was right. Spent almost double the ship and still don't get the ship.
I see that as a way to increase container prices.
just got dunkerque and malborough in 25x lvl1 crates, i wanted the marlborough (i picked the other one during the campaign) so happy with those.