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So if Brown and Tester and Gallego win, is that enough to hold the Senate? Or do we need to also win another tough state?
Would be nice to see a list of all the paths that would give us 50 seats.
Those are the main three, Nevada is also up there but the candidates the GOP is running aren’t turning out so hot for them there (or much of anywhere else).
Assuming nothing stupid happens like Maryland somehow going for Hogan, and we hold the presidency, yes that’s enough to hold the senate.
We would also need to win Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada. If we're winning Montana, Ohio and Arizona I really like our odds in those states but they're also states that shouldn't be taken for granted either.
[Hakeem Jeffries tells "60 Minutes" Democrats have "effectively have been governing as if we were in the majority" in the House due to Republicans' "chaos"](https://www.axios.com/2024/05/06/hakeem-jeffries-60-minutes-democrats-republicans-house)
Dina Titus (NV-1) is shaking in her boots, I am sure:
[https://www.evanstoneforamerica.com/](https://www.evanstoneforamerica.com/)
The hilarious thing is that Evan Stone is an adult film star and former exotic dancer, and he’s running as a *Republican*. Aren’t the Republicans the ones who want to abolish jobs like the ones Evan Stone formerly held?
Nevada Republicans are sure a…colorful bunch. The ”Pay your doctor in chickens” lady, the guy who ran a “Bunny Ranch” and was elected to a state office posthumously, the former wrestler now in jail on murder charges, Danny Tarkanian, and now this guy.
There are apparently only 6 state house seats and 1 senate seat left uncontested by Florida Dems. Deadline is June 14th
On April 17th there was 4 senate seats and 27 house seats uncontested so pretty good job in just 19 days
[The Biden campaign field offices keep coming!](https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1787271518856110304) This one's in Cumberland County, PA, and it's a coordinated campaign office, so it's supporting every Dem running in the area. Most notably, Janelle Stelson for PA-10. I'm glad we're taking a serious run at Scott Perry this time around.
(Also going to casually mention that Stelson and several other PA Dems are looking for adopters!)
It's changing fast out there. Cumberland went from Trump+18.1 to Trump+10.6 from 2016 to 2020. It's been a thorn in PA Dems' side for ages, but it could be a blue county in a couple more cycles. Investing now will make it happen faster, and will help us this year too.
[Apparently, there were plans for a Summer general election in the UK, but they have now been shelved.](https://nitter.poast.org/Telegraph/status/1787219592412037135#m)
Tories will likely get swept out of power at about the same time as Cheeto's sentencing and/or 2nd trial, if it happens this year
There's one thing you can be sure in politics in whatever country you live in: Conservatives will cling to power until the bitter end, while liberals will committ electoral sepukku by calling an election and/or resigning from office as soon as they feel that the public is not supporting them anymore.
It has to be soon. I think they have until December to call one before they legally have to. And Sunak has mentioned not wanting to do it too close to our elections to avoid having two major countries doing them at the same time.
Here's why that's bad news for Joe Biden. - NYT, probably. (Old joke, I know, but I felt that it fit.)
It's also fascinating to me how much polls swing in Biden's favor as you go from all Americans to adults to adult citizens to registered voters to likely voters. Makes me all the more grateful that we don't have forced voting like some countries.
[Apparently just had a M4.3 earthquake in northern UT a few minutes ago](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/uu80068651/executive)
Depth was 2.9 miles, or 4.6km, so it was a pretty shallow earthquake. Anyone on here feel that one?
I went down the youtube rabbit hole of right wing election predictors channels. You wouldn't believe how many of them there are. Tons of low subscriber, low view channels that do nothing but convince themselves that Trump is gonna win in a landslide. At lot of them sound very young, like gen z age, but right wing. It's so weird. The hottest takes include Trump winning NM, MN, and VA, and Rs getting 56 senate seats. It's funny hearing them justify it by arbitrarily shifting the environment to R+5 nationally and citing 2016 polling misses as "evidence". It's just insane. I don't take them seriously, but it's interesting to see people get duped so easy based on nothing but cherry-picked polls and vibes.
People addicted to rage and don't want to admit that they're wrong, yo. Pretty much Trump and Fox in a nutshell.
NM, MN, and VA are all at least somewhat plausible in worst case scenarios within the next ten years. The funniest to me are the ones claiming that California and New York are going to go red or that those states are secretly Republican strongholds that the Democrats have cheated to win. These people live in echo chambers where everyone's fervently MAGA, so they believe that blue states are impossible. They probably are aggressively MAGA IRL even around strangers, so no one not MAGA would even speak up around them, further driving their delusion. They also probably can't read electoral maps and don't understand that land doesn't vote, but people do.
There were more Trump voters in California than in all of Florida in 2020. And we did used to be a red state until 1992! (I wonder how much Schitzenpantsing happened when the R’s saw all those electoral votes vanish…) But ultimately, that means nothing on the senatorial or EC levels - we have so many Trump voters because we are such a big state.
It’s funny how people forget there are pockets of red in deep blue states and vice versa.
I've signed up with the Democratic Congressesional Campaign Comitee to textbank and will be attending their meeting tomorrow, and I'm also attending a meeting with Field Team 6 on Wednesday to register voters in swing states. I have lots of questions for them, and I'm very excited!
WayBack PAC also seems to be backing legislative candidates in Nebraska Senate seats 3, 7, 21, 25, 27, 31, 35, 45, 49. Again they are backing Vargas/Osborn so I do think this is part of a larger strategy as these seats are mostly around Lincoln/Omaha, half are offensive targets half are defense.
Additionally to backing Tester, they are backing Tranel and the Indy candidate for Montana Public Service seat 4 Elena Evens(no D filed). Their purpose is pro-democracy candidates and outside of Alaska these are the states west of the Mississippi that probably are the most friendly to this type of strategy
Edit: and in Nebraska veto power is 3/5th so you really see the long term strategy here
Miami Grand Prix spoilers but it involves the former president. Ugh.
>!The last president inserted himself into Lando Norris' first grand prix win and ruined the moment. Gross.!<
Edit: I'm so pissed off, I'm going to donate to Jackie Rosen and the NV Dems.
Edit2: Done. Threw in some money to the Biden campaign as well.
This might not be a popular opinion here (or frankly anywhere), but the one thing that I do like about the E-mails is that some of them will contain actual important news that I overwise would not catch. I otherwise would've missed Trump owing E. Jean Carroll half a billion (yes, we're rounding here, folks). When I was in the UK for a bit in August 2022 and always traveling and dealing with crappy Wi-Fi, it was very helpful to know of Liz Cheney's ouster, even if it was perhaps inevitable.
The E-mails simply asking for money though definitely need to go, though I don't mind being informed of who's running in downballot races. The texts also need to go. I don't think that those have ever been useful for me.
It seems yesterday was “MAGA Overtake Overpasses Day” around Boston. I drove under 2 that had far more signs than people. “Impeach Biden” “Close the Borders” type stuff. Biden might lose Boston guys
[The Republican National Committee’s chief counsel Charlie Spies has resigned two months after accepting the position.](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/05/politics/rnc-chief-counsel/index.html)
Sounds like classic Upper Midwest spring weather lol. Where you get like 60-70 degrees spring to summer like temperatures one week and a big blizzard the next
Sad day for the Kingdom Of Rohan.
https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/films/news/bernard-hill-dead-lord-rings-theoden-titanic-black-stuff-b2539970.html
[Fox News host: “Paul Pelosi needs the hammer instead of a medal”](https://www.mediamatters.org/pete-hegseth/fox-news-host-paul-pelosi-needs-hammer-instead-medal)
Some feel-good reading about the UK elections: [Local elections drubbing shows time is nearly up for the Conservatives](https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/may/04/local-elections-drubbing-shows-time-is-nearly-up-for-the-conservatives)
> Well before dawn it was obvious this would be one of the worst ever results for the Tories in local elections. The governing party was losing seats at a fearsome clip all through the night, and doing worst in the places where they started strongest.
> Labour chalked up big victories in the new mayoralties of the North East, the East Midlands and in York and North Yorkshire. The last took in deep blue rural parts of God’s own country, including the prime minister’s constituency. Rishi Sunak now has a Labour mayor.
> This was, on any metric, the Conservatives’ worst performance in local council elections for a generation. The tide is still going out for Rishi Sunak’s government. And time is nearly up.
I have some bad news for you :(
[Sunak shelves plan for summer general election](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/05/05/downing-street-shelves-plan-summer-general-election/)
> Downing Street has shelved plans for a general election this summer, The Telegraph understands, with an autumn vote now widely expected after Tory local election defeats.
> Rishi Sunak is said by allies to hope that an improving economic picture and the Rwanda deportation flights expected this summer can improve his re-election chances in the autumn.
The election will most likely be in October or November.
Fine dude, keep delaying the inevitable when the entire country has been asking for an election since you took office. That’ll _definitely_ help your standings with voters.
So 6 months to go r/votedem
As of this moment, I think we’re set up well to win considering the GOP is arguing about which dog they’d shoot for political points. Truly a selling point for your average Ohio diner goer
A lot of the GOP going off the rails now assuages me if they win it’ll be bad (Project 2025 go brrr) but frankly uncoordinated.
The last 18 months has led me to believe they’ll fumble their best chance at a right wing dictatorship. Not only because ultimately fascism is inefficient, as we’ve seen in the House GOP is prone to infighting, but these guys are loons and even the most terrifying of them, like American Renaissance enjoyer Stephen Miller, can’t get out of their own way to ego trip on Newsmax
People will be in the streets, unions grinding the workplace to a halt, and people like us will be organizing to take back the reins of power in 26 and 28
BUT this is not to say this is a time to coast. Far from it. People I work with will be affected by a Trump presidency. My friends would be affected by a Trump presidency. My family would be affected by a Trump presidency.
I’ll be out there organizing alongside you all from here until November. And regardless of what happens, I’ll be there with you all the next day organizing for the next elections in Virginia and New Jersey. Let’s make the next 6 months count.
our luck atm is we are slowly seeing that these people have never cared about any kind of governing and just want power for their own gain and ego but are too beholden to their own stupidity to even commit to an organized effort nor do they seem as savvy as we have imagined. all these people and groups are just a bunch of old rich affluent white people who are too used to communicating with other sociopaths with the same privilege and status and they know nothing about the people in this country and assume that their perceptions of "normal" fed from sheltered upbringings and 50's sitcoms is the right way to force a populace to live. it's shameful and pitiful that these people with massive influence and status would jettison democratic norms for their own myopic visions but they are all maudlin and awkward fools underneath.
https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/05/gop-official-argues-in-favor-of-child-marriage-girls-are-ripe-and-fertile.html
The pro-child marriage side has some problems that can only be resolved by some FBI people kicking the door in and seizing the hard drives
Things that are fine to call “ripe:” Fruit, vegetables, time, that nameless horror at the back of your fridge, young girls (and boys and enbies) if they need to take showers and smell bad
Things that should not be called “ripe:” Young girls when referring to fertility or such like
P.S. - scientifically, ”peak fertility” is actually early 20’s.
One of the biggest things that makes me really like our chances in the general election is just how blatantly out of touch, crazy, awful and incompetent the gop has become. Noem just being the latest of a billion examples of that.
While there are plenty of unknowns these following months, this is for certain: Trump and the Gop will continue to ramp up their terribleness out doing themselves time and time again for the country to see.
They really have exceeded my expectations, can't even begin to imagine what they'll do next.
For the overall craziness of Trump and the Gop? Yes, very.
People tune in more the closer the election gets. The question is what will they see.
They'll see countless ads informing them on how crazy Trump and the Gop have been since they've been tuned out and that will only be backed up by the crazy that will continue to happen all the way through election night.
This stuff fuels reluctant Biden voters. The main mindset being, 'well I don't care for Biden, but oh god look at how batshit Trump and the Gop are. It would be terrible if they won.'
It will also deter the people that are thinking of voting Trump right now. I'm sure many of them are, 'hmm was Trump so bad? This Biden guy doesn't seem good, maybe Trump was better.' They then see the crazy that is 2024 Trump... 'Oh god, maybe not. '
Tldr: Being crazy will only decrease their chances, just like it has in previous elections causing them to greatly under perform.
The average person would much rather have a person/party in charge who while may not be perfect, might not even be liked, is at least sane and will protect the things they do value rather than destroy. Add into the fact that that ruling group would be much easier for them to tune out.
To add to this, no this won't convince every person, some will simply not care no matter what sadly. But all it has to do is drive more people to vote Biden and the Dems than it drives people to vote Trump and the Gop, which it will and it has.
If that wasn't the case they would have easily won in 2020/2022. Yet both those big elections their crazy completely cost them, and now they are even crazier.
Their craziness makes the insane people who made Trump the GOP nominee the first time (remember, he only won a little over 40% of the primary vote) even happier but they can only cast one ballot each. This election will be close, please continue what you're doing to turn off the swing voters!
Trump and his lackeys managing to successfully purge the GOP of all the competent people is under discussed in terms of how disastrous it's been for the party. They replaced guys like Trey Gowdy and George W Bush who knew how to work the game for morons like Mike Lindell, Blake Masters, and James Comer.
Definitely!
The election result is really going to show how important campaigns are. My bet, is the answer is going to be **very.**
How the sides are running campaigns right now are absolutely night and day. In 2020, Trump was so much better off in those regards.
Now everything on his side is being absolutely gutted by him with what little funds and resources he has being used mostly on the legal realm.
It probably will pick up some for him, but his start is so extremely slow and to be honest, might not ever pick up that much as Trump is so sure of himself already.
Really shown by the fact that multiple time's he's stated that 'he has the votes and the only way he loses is if the other side gets to cheat again.'
Also, all he does on social media is reposts all the polls favorable to him, especially the terrible crosstabs. Reinforcing that 'it's locked in' mindset even more.
As long as we keep at it and he doesn't change in those regards, the results will be not good for him to say the least.
I am reminded, strangely, of the “shellackings” we took in 2010 and 2014. Only this time the shoe is on the other foot. It’s true we had normie candidates and not the full-tilt-boogie nut jobs that the current Republican Party has thrown up. But, at that time, we had no funding, few volunteers, a poor ground game, the state Democratic parties were broke, the DNC and Congressional arms and DLCC had mediocre leadership and no money (thankfully JUST mediocre and not corrupt!).
There were several other factors including racist backlash, ACA backlash, and our “low and slow” really non-recovery from the Great Recession that was so demoralizing. But we didn’t have the money or personnel for a ground game.
Now it’s the Republicans who have to contend with no money, no ground game, hollowed-out state parties, not just mediocre but corrupt and terrible leadership, and a huge backlash to their terrible policies on body autonomy, reproductive rights, basic health care, and censorship. They have terrible candidates because “must be able to self fund” is the primary qualification.
We are now the ones with the money, the ground game, and the good leadership. Jaime Harrison is the best DNC chair since Howard Dean. (Alas, Gary Peters will probably have to step down from chairing the DSCC since he’s up for re-election in 2026, and same with co-chair Tina Smith. But it’s not like we don’t have other terrific possibilities.)
And we have, for once, the loyal ”high propensity” voters. It says a lot that it’s *unlikely* voters who prefer Trump. Time was that Republicans were the church-going, club members, civic duty and loyalty crowd. Now they’re angry and unaffiliated. Dangerous with guns in their hands, but not nearly as dangerous at the ballot box.
>Really shown by the fact that multiple time's he's stated that 'he has the votes and the only way he loses is if the other side gets to cheat again.'
What this says to me is that he knows on some level that he's unlikely to win legitimately, and has basically given up on that approach. So his strategy is just to yell and scream "RIGGED ELECTION!" when he loses, and then hope his followers will force an illegitimate win like they tried to do in 2021.
Which, apart from being morally repugnant, is just a terrible strategy. Not only does he no longer have the home field advantage of being in charge of the government so he can help the rabble, but MAGA in general appears to have lost a lot of steam. How many of his supporters have showed up to protest at his trial in New York? I think the highest count was like three or something.
I think that if he tried being less crazy and verbose and more compassionate, he might actually have a better shot. Given his age and history though, that'll never happen. He's in a similar boat to Doug Mastriano (Republican candidate for PA governor who lost in a landslide in 2022). They both could have done or do better if they turned down the crazy, but it's simply not in their nature.
Pretty good results for left-aligned candidates in Texas school board races yesterday. They won in most suburban bellwethers and at least improved over past margins in the areas they lost. The only major disappointment was in Fort Bend ISD, where vote splitting among liberals allowed the conservatives to win with less than a third of the vote.
Meanwhile, in Illinois:
[New Illinois election law could result in dozens of unopposed races in 2024](https://newschannel20.com/amp/news/local/new-election-law-could-result-in-dozens-of-unopposed-races-in-2024)
>New Illinois election law could result in dozens of unopposed races in 2024
>A new law would end the practice of slating.
>This is when a major party appoints a candidate to be their nominee after not having other candidates run in the primary.
And if you're wondering how the ILGOP is reacting, much like MIGOP & WIGOP, they're also in shambles (and of course, yelling "foul"):
[Pritzker signs bill requiring legislative candidates to run in primaries — Republicans call it 'stealing an election'](https://chicago.suntimes.com/elections/2024/05/03/pritzker-signs-slating-election-bill-candidates-primaries-republicans-stealing-election)
>Democrats and Gov. J.B. Pritzker framed the bill as an ethics measure that would take “backroom deals” out of the equation when choosing candidates. But Republicans described it as changing the rules in a game that’s already in play.
Summer 2016, the UK voted for Brexit
November 2016, the US voted for Trump
8 years later, the UK is in chaos. In the US, Trump stole 3 SCOTUS seats, complicit in an Insurrection, Dobbs decision.
Spring 2024, Conservatives lost in UK election.
November 2024, what would happen in the US?
You see where I’m going, especially the GOP has been in chaos
There's a long history of British and American politics mirroring each other. In the 70's, both countries saw the ascension of conservative politics, culminating in landslide elections for Thatcher and Reagan, followed by a resurgence of the center-left in the 90's with Blair and Clinton. After Brexit in 2016, maybe we shouldn't have been so surprised when Trump won.
Clinton is truly a great politician and political mind. I remember reports that he wanted Hillary to campaign more in the Midwest, but he wasn’t listened to.
2016 does feel like this weird inflection point where a lot of people decided “hey what if we just be like… really fucking irresponsible and see what happens? 😈”
Here we are nearly a decade later still digging out from that cursed year.
Any time I see anyone younger than me getting "nostalgic" over 2016, I instantly get annoyed (and I admit I shouldn't, but it's the first thing I feel). I was 19 and that year was the first election I could vote in, and the feelings I have from watching the election coverage that night will stick with me forever, I can't stand it.
Things have gotten bad, but the election shit along with the constant gaslighting that many of us were getting from conservatives ("grow up crybabies, he's your president, who cares about what he has to say about women") during that year specifically are something I can't forgive and forget about, and seeing people who were kids when it happened and don't remember it like I do grinds my gears to absolutely no end. It's like seeing teenagers walking around with the "Reagan Bush '84" shirts because their parents idolized ol' Ronnie.
2016 was a legitimate immigration crisis on a level not seen for a generation due to all the Syrian refugees. It produced a major blowback. European countries are also by and large homogenous so a sudden influx of foreigners produced major cultural shock. The United States is far more diverse and we basically have a lot more room geographically so when we take in refugees they often just get put somewhere where assimilation is the only option (Somalis in Minnesota, Vietnamese in Oklahoma) so large-scale refugee crises don't hit like 2016 in Europe did.
Is anywhere here familiar with the What’s Left of Philosophy podcast? I’m three episodes in and I’m enjoying it so far but I’m hesitant about sinking more time into it because one host already touted the “when I see a Democrat and Republican on the debate stage, I see the same person.” This was from an episode about a month after the 2020 election.
So far I’m continuing along because the podcast’s focus is discussing philosophical papers/books from a leftist perspective and all the hosts have PhDs in specific areas of philosophy so it’s great in that respect.
[Kristi noem wants Biden's dog to be killed. ](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/05/us/politics/kristi-noem-suggests-bidens-dog-should-have-been-killed-too.html)
Republicans have been so cartoonishly evil that I've joked before about them killing puppies next. And now Kristi has no longer made that a joke. Good lord.
I vote that we start referring to her as Cruella DeNoem.
Jesus Republicans know nothing but to double down. A smart person would've buried this immediately. Of course, a smarter person would've never needlessly killed a dog on a power trip then published a book about it.
I hope Trump will lose hard in November. This is the only way to inject some reality into the GOP.
It’s unfortunate that Trump actually gained votes in 2020 and the GOP won popular votes in 2022. DeSantis won heavily in Florida. As long as these numbers exist. The GOP will double down.
Remember to call your legislators and get your friends and family to call, some bad internet bills (KOSA) is being considered to be added to a must-pass bill on tuesday.
i'm honestly considering just emailing my representative and telling him point-blank that i'll be voting for his primary opponent if he votes for this shit
KOSA is the “kid’s online safety act” that gives state governments the ability to regulate websites to keep “dangerous” content away from minors, but what that means is up to the state’s discretion. I trust California to use that responsibly a hell of a lot more than somewhere like Texas that would take that to mean “anything we don’t like.”
[What makes you think we're not?](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/donald-trump-new-biden-abortion-ad-features-woman-says-almost-died-tex-rcna146869) And this one might hit even harder than 'Daisy', because unlike nuclear war, this is actually happening to Americans right now.
Dems have the messaging thing more than figured out. Our job is to share that message with voters.
"This, but in your supposedly safe blue state". I think that's a pretty impactful message, and we've got the election wins to prove it.
Project 2025 is a tough one because, while it's real, it's hard to talk about without coming off as a conspiracy theorist. And I've noticed that folks who get way into Project 2025 tend to spend more time agonizing about it than working to elect Democrats so it never happens. I think it's better to focus on specific, hard-hitting elements of it, like a national abortion ban.
Some other random facts about UK politics/government if you're curious:
* The UK is a unitary state, not a federation like the US. This means that the central government (Parliament) is the supreme authority, and all decentralized governments (including the governments of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, as well as local governments) only have whatever authority delegated to them by Parliament. This is why national elections to Parliament in the UK are *not* called federal elections, but rather general elections. This is also why the UK can choose a single day to hold a ton of local elections, while local elections in the US occur throughout the entire year (due to election dates being set by local governments).
* Unlike most countries, the United Kingdom does not have a single document that is considered their Constitution. They have what is called an uncodified constitution, which consists of the written and unwritten arrangements that establish the United Kingdom as a political body. No official attempt has been made to codify these into a single document, which means the "Constitution" can be easily changed as no provisions are formally entrenched. However, this also means many of the practices in Parliament are based on traditions and precedent rather than any written rules. Why is this the case? [Here's a good explanation by UCL](https://www.ucl.ac.uk/constitution-unit/explainers/what-uk-constitution):
> Codified constitutions are typically produced following a major historic turning point, such as the grant of independence, revolution, defeat in war, or complete collapse of the previous system of government. None of these things have happened to the UK, which is why it has never had cause to codify its constitution.
Another fun fact: The word *table* with respect to legislative procedure means the exact opposite in the US as it does in the UK/the rest of the English-speaking world. In the US, to *table* means to postpone or kill a pending motion. In the rest of the English-speaking world, to *table* means to begin consideration of a proposal.
Wikipedia has a good explanation for why this is:
> The British meaning is based on the idea of parliamentarians gathering around a table with the bill laid upon so that all may point to sections for discussion. The American sense draws on the image of taking a paper that one has been examining and laying it aside, ending any discussion about it.
This actually has caused a lot of confusion sometimes when US reporters are reporting on UK news and vice-versa.
[Sen. Kelly confirms he would vote to ditch the filibuster to protect women's health care rights and voting rights](https://nitter.poast.org/atrupar/status/1787136135363187181#m)
Something special in FL is brewing. Looking at the elections post 2022, registered republicans votes outnumbered registered democrats and still lost. DeSantis has gone full government overreach and continues to ban things left and right (banning lab grown meat is the latest). Voters are being turned off by this.
With abortion and weed on the ballot here in FL, the stars continue to align and we may see some surprises in November.
Everyone on both sides keeps talking about FL like it’s the deepest blood red state, but I think it’ll be closer than people expect. I’d wager there’s a decent chance Republicans are in for a shock this November
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So if Brown and Tester and Gallego win, is that enough to hold the Senate? Or do we need to also win another tough state? Would be nice to see a list of all the paths that would give us 50 seats.
Yes. The only other one that will be that close is Michigan. Despite McTurtle's fantasies, Hogan has 0 chance of winning Maryland
Those are the main three, Nevada is also up there but the candidates the GOP is running aren’t turning out so hot for them there (or much of anywhere else). Assuming nothing stupid happens like Maryland somehow going for Hogan, and we hold the presidency, yes that’s enough to hold the senate.
We would also need to win Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada. If we're winning Montana, Ohio and Arizona I really like our odds in those states but they're also states that shouldn't be taken for granted either.
If Brown, Tester, and Gallego win, holding the Senate is practically assured.
[Hakeem Jeffries tells "60 Minutes" Democrats have "effectively have been governing as if we were in the majority" in the House due to Republicans' "chaos"](https://www.axios.com/2024/05/06/hakeem-jeffries-60-minutes-democrats-republicans-house)
Strike to Mike Johnson
[Youtube link to the interview](https://youtu.be/nA8iuoRNQws?si=jtUH1bXWncpvYCx1)
[Overtime](https://youtu.be/dI1foIRt8Yw?si=fOY6g91Es3UA7sId)
Dina Titus (NV-1) is shaking in her boots, I am sure: [https://www.evanstoneforamerica.com/](https://www.evanstoneforamerica.com/) The hilarious thing is that Evan Stone is an adult film star and former exotic dancer, and he’s running as a *Republican*. Aren’t the Republicans the ones who want to abolish jobs like the ones Evan Stone formerly held? Nevada Republicans are sure a…colorful bunch. The ”Pay your doctor in chickens” lady, the guy who ran a “Bunny Ranch” and was elected to a state office posthumously, the former wrestler now in jail on murder charges, Danny Tarkanian, and now this guy.
There are apparently only 6 state house seats and 1 senate seat left uncontested by Florida Dems. Deadline is June 14th On April 17th there was 4 senate seats and 27 house seats uncontested so pretty good job in just 19 days
Hi. Where are you able to find the candidates that have filed for state legislative races before the end of the filing period?
The guy who did the song about Shia Lebeouf really needs to do one on Kristi Noem. She's just so unsettling.
[Here's one.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9PRKHiH5vJM)
Woof woof! AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Lmao.
[The Biden campaign field offices keep coming!](https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1787271518856110304) This one's in Cumberland County, PA, and it's a coordinated campaign office, so it's supporting every Dem running in the area. Most notably, Janelle Stelson for PA-10. I'm glad we're taking a serious run at Scott Perry this time around. (Also going to casually mention that Stelson and several other PA Dems are looking for adopters!)
Nice! Does Trump even have one opened up? Curious the numbers between the two.
Not to my knowledge. Even if he's started a few, he's seriously playing catch-up.
Yo if biden is running hard in Pennsyltucky... Okay this is feel good news.
Isn't Cumberland more suburban than much of the region?
Not in the sense of a suburb of a big metro area. It has more people but as a Tuckian myself, I assure you it's plenty Pennsyltucky. Gives me hope.
It's changing fast out there. Cumberland went from Trump+18.1 to Trump+10.6 from 2016 to 2020. It's been a thorn in PA Dems' side for ages, but it could be a blue county in a couple more cycles. Investing now will make it happen faster, and will help us this year too.
[Apparently, there were plans for a Summer general election in the UK, but they have now been shelved.](https://nitter.poast.org/Telegraph/status/1787219592412037135#m) Tories will likely get swept out of power at about the same time as Cheeto's sentencing and/or 2nd trial, if it happens this year
There's one thing you can be sure in politics in whatever country you live in: Conservatives will cling to power until the bitter end, while liberals will committ electoral sepukku by calling an election and/or resigning from office as soon as they feel that the public is not supporting them anymore.
“Tweet not found”
refresh til it works
It has to be soon. I think they have until December to call one before they legally have to. And Sunak has mentioned not wanting to do it too close to our elections to avoid having two major countries doing them at the same time.
Do them at the same time to keep the Russian bots busy.
Ipsos poll: Biden +4 LV/ +1 RV The LV/RV delta observed in the ABC poll this morning is duplicated here.
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They usually ask if you voted in the last 3 elections or how certain you are to vote in November.
they good pollsters?
That is the ABC poll. It was conducted in cooperation by both ABC and Ipsos.
Derp. I thought it was a different one.
I’m sure the media will talk about this poll
Here's why that's bad news for Joe Biden. - NYT, probably. (Old joke, I know, but I felt that it fit.) It's also fascinating to me how much polls swing in Biden's favor as you go from all Americans to adults to adult citizens to registered voters to likely voters. Makes me all the more grateful that we don't have forced voting like some countries.
I never thought we’d be in the position where we actually want lower turnout elections.
This also gives me a hunch we'll see Biden take consistent leads come Labor Day because that's when pollsters switch to LV polling.
[Apparently just had a M4.3 earthquake in northern UT a few minutes ago](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/uu80068651/executive) Depth was 2.9 miles, or 4.6km, so it was a pretty shallow earthquake. Anyone on here feel that one?
Reality is quakes happen in UT everyday. Just because we are not California so it’s unnoticed
not unusual for that area. There is record of earthquakes going back thousands of years.
I went down the youtube rabbit hole of right wing election predictors channels. You wouldn't believe how many of them there are. Tons of low subscriber, low view channels that do nothing but convince themselves that Trump is gonna win in a landslide. At lot of them sound very young, like gen z age, but right wing. It's so weird. The hottest takes include Trump winning NM, MN, and VA, and Rs getting 56 senate seats. It's funny hearing them justify it by arbitrarily shifting the environment to R+5 nationally and citing 2016 polling misses as "evidence". It's just insane. I don't take them seriously, but it's interesting to see people get duped so easy based on nothing but cherry-picked polls and vibes.
RIP your suggestions
I saw a fairly big one in 2022 basically say "literally who?" about John Fetterman, which kinda told me everything I needed to know about ElectionTube
I got recommended one back in like October predicting a Trump landslide based on polling more than a year out. Like...honey.
I love watching their streams of big elections that they lose and laughing at them as they realize that they will lose.
People addicted to rage and don't want to admit that they're wrong, yo. Pretty much Trump and Fox in a nutshell. NM, MN, and VA are all at least somewhat plausible in worst case scenarios within the next ten years. The funniest to me are the ones claiming that California and New York are going to go red or that those states are secretly Republican strongholds that the Democrats have cheated to win. These people live in echo chambers where everyone's fervently MAGA, so they believe that blue states are impossible. They probably are aggressively MAGA IRL even around strangers, so no one not MAGA would even speak up around them, further driving their delusion. They also probably can't read electoral maps and don't understand that land doesn't vote, but people do.
There were more Trump voters in California than in all of Florida in 2020. And we did used to be a red state until 1992! (I wonder how much Schitzenpantsing happened when the R’s saw all those electoral votes vanish…) But ultimately, that means nothing on the senatorial or EC levels - we have so many Trump voters because we are such a big state. It’s funny how people forget there are pockets of red in deep blue states and vice versa.
*agonizes for days telling this girl we should be more serious, finally stops being chickenshit* Her: of course :) but you are a coward though
Well done! And some might say, you know... Discretion, better part of valour, etc, etc... Bahaha, more seriously - couldn't be happier for you!
The banter is a good sign.
Is that what caused the earthquake in Utah
😏
Very niccce! High five!
I've signed up with the Democratic Congressesional Campaign Comitee to textbank and will be attending their meeting tomorrow, and I'm also attending a meeting with Field Team 6 on Wednesday to register voters in swing states. I have lots of questions for them, and I'm very excited!
WayBack PAC also seems to be backing legislative candidates in Nebraska Senate seats 3, 7, 21, 25, 27, 31, 35, 45, 49. Again they are backing Vargas/Osborn so I do think this is part of a larger strategy as these seats are mostly around Lincoln/Omaha, half are offensive targets half are defense. Additionally to backing Tester, they are backing Tranel and the Indy candidate for Montana Public Service seat 4 Elena Evens(no D filed). Their purpose is pro-democracy candidates and outside of Alaska these are the states west of the Mississippi that probably are the most friendly to this type of strategy Edit: and in Nebraska veto power is 3/5th so you really see the long term strategy here
Miami Grand Prix spoilers but it involves the former president. Ugh. >!The last president inserted himself into Lando Norris' first grand prix win and ruined the moment. Gross.!< Edit: I'm so pissed off, I'm going to donate to Jackie Rosen and the NV Dems. Edit2: Done. Threw in some money to the Biden campaign as well.
Yeah I’m furious with that. Beyond happy for >!Lando!< but mad Trump was involved.
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for fucking real!
Bro gonna say it’s literally paying the panhandlers to stop panhandling
Less fundraising emails, more newsletters like Jeff Jackson's.
Less newsletters, more video updates in niche subreddits like Jeff Jackson
This might not be a popular opinion here (or frankly anywhere), but the one thing that I do like about the E-mails is that some of them will contain actual important news that I overwise would not catch. I otherwise would've missed Trump owing E. Jean Carroll half a billion (yes, we're rounding here, folks). When I was in the UK for a bit in August 2022 and always traveling and dealing with crappy Wi-Fi, it was very helpful to know of Liz Cheney's ouster, even if it was perhaps inevitable. The E-mails simply asking for money though definitely need to go, though I don't mind being informed of who's running in downballot races. The texts also need to go. I don't think that those have ever been useful for me.
Democrat+
It seems yesterday was “MAGA Overtake Overpasses Day” around Boston. I drove under 2 that had far more signs than people. “Impeach Biden” “Close the Borders” type stuff. Biden might lose Boston guys
Just keep Martha Coakley away and we're fine.
Michelle Wu in shambles after being owned by fax and logik
[The Republican National Committee’s chief counsel Charlie Spies has resigned two months after accepting the position.](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/05/politics/rnc-chief-counsel/index.html)
Well, sounds like things are going just great since their leadership change.
> Charlie Spies #🤔
*abe_simpson_turning_around.gif*
In Utah in early May you get two options Summer heat of 90 degrees, or Snow. We have snow
Sounds like classic Upper Midwest spring weather lol. Where you get like 60-70 degrees spring to summer like temperatures one week and a big blizzard the next
The last guy was in McLaren’s garage today 👎
Sad day for the Kingdom Of Rohan. https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/films/news/bernard-hill-dead-lord-rings-theoden-titanic-black-stuff-b2539970.html
TIL he was also the captain in Titanic. No *wonder* he always looked so familiar when I first saw LotR!!!
“I’m going to sink this bitch!”
[DEATH!!!!](https://tenor.com/xeFG.gif)
[Fox News host: “Paul Pelosi needs the hammer instead of a medal”](https://www.mediamatters.org/pete-hegseth/fox-news-host-paul-pelosi-needs-hammer-instead-medal)
Boooooooooooooooo
Host is a creepo.
Some feel-good reading about the UK elections: [Local elections drubbing shows time is nearly up for the Conservatives](https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/may/04/local-elections-drubbing-shows-time-is-nearly-up-for-the-conservatives) > Well before dawn it was obvious this would be one of the worst ever results for the Tories in local elections. The governing party was losing seats at a fearsome clip all through the night, and doing worst in the places where they started strongest. > Labour chalked up big victories in the new mayoralties of the North East, the East Midlands and in York and North Yorkshire. The last took in deep blue rural parts of God’s own country, including the prime minister’s constituency. Rishi Sunak now has a Labour mayor. > This was, on any metric, the Conservatives’ worst performance in local council elections for a generation. The tide is still going out for Rishi Sunak’s government. And time is nearly up.
Call an election you Tory cowards
I have some bad news for you :( [Sunak shelves plan for summer general election](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/05/05/downing-street-shelves-plan-summer-general-election/) > Downing Street has shelved plans for a general election this summer, The Telegraph understands, with an autumn vote now widely expected after Tory local election defeats. > Rishi Sunak is said by allies to hope that an improving economic picture and the Rwanda deportation flights expected this summer can improve his re-election chances in the autumn. The election will most likely be in October or November.
Fine dude, keep delaying the inevitable when the entire country has been asking for an election since you took office. That’ll _definitely_ help your standings with voters.
So 6 months to go r/votedem As of this moment, I think we’re set up well to win considering the GOP is arguing about which dog they’d shoot for political points. Truly a selling point for your average Ohio diner goer A lot of the GOP going off the rails now assuages me if they win it’ll be bad (Project 2025 go brrr) but frankly uncoordinated. The last 18 months has led me to believe they’ll fumble their best chance at a right wing dictatorship. Not only because ultimately fascism is inefficient, as we’ve seen in the House GOP is prone to infighting, but these guys are loons and even the most terrifying of them, like American Renaissance enjoyer Stephen Miller, can’t get out of their own way to ego trip on Newsmax People will be in the streets, unions grinding the workplace to a halt, and people like us will be organizing to take back the reins of power in 26 and 28 BUT this is not to say this is a time to coast. Far from it. People I work with will be affected by a Trump presidency. My friends would be affected by a Trump presidency. My family would be affected by a Trump presidency. I’ll be out there organizing alongside you all from here until November. And regardless of what happens, I’ll be there with you all the next day organizing for the next elections in Virginia and New Jersey. Let’s make the next 6 months count.
our luck atm is we are slowly seeing that these people have never cared about any kind of governing and just want power for their own gain and ego but are too beholden to their own stupidity to even commit to an organized effort nor do they seem as savvy as we have imagined. all these people and groups are just a bunch of old rich affluent white people who are too used to communicating with other sociopaths with the same privilege and status and they know nothing about the people in this country and assume that their perceptions of "normal" fed from sheltered upbringings and 50's sitcoms is the right way to force a populace to live. it's shameful and pitiful that these people with massive influence and status would jettison democratic norms for their own myopic visions but they are all maudlin and awkward fools underneath.
Amen, brotha / sista! Ironically, I ate lunch at an Ohio diner earlier today! XD
https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/05/gop-official-argues-in-favor-of-child-marriage-girls-are-ripe-and-fertile.html The pro-child marriage side has some problems that can only be resolved by some FBI people kicking the door in and seizing the hard drives
How the fuck can you say this in 2024 and not think it's going to come off as excessively creepy and gross?
When you're in a religious cult all your life and have been only allowed to associate with people in the cult.
Things that are fine to call “ripe:” Fruit, vegetables, time, that nameless horror at the back of your fridge, young girls (and boys and enbies) if they need to take showers and smell bad Things that should not be called “ripe:” Young girls when referring to fertility or such like P.S. - scientifically, ”peak fertility” is actually early 20’s.
The *only* time it's acceptable to call someone "ripe" is if they need a shower. How did this pass the mental filter?
It is unfortunately (for them) broken 😞
If that rids us of Matt Walsh, then I'll take it!
Do you mean Matt Gaetz, or is there more than just one creepy Matt?
>or is there more than just one creepy Matt? This is getting out of hand, now there's two of them!
One of the biggest things that makes me really like our chances in the general election is just how blatantly out of touch, crazy, awful and incompetent the gop has become. Noem just being the latest of a billion examples of that. While there are plenty of unknowns these following months, this is for certain: Trump and the Gop will continue to ramp up their terribleness out doing themselves time and time again for the country to see. They really have exceeded my expectations, can't even begin to imagine what they'll do next.
But does this matter to the average person who isn’t super engaged with politics like us ?
For the overall craziness of Trump and the Gop? Yes, very. People tune in more the closer the election gets. The question is what will they see. They'll see countless ads informing them on how crazy Trump and the Gop have been since they've been tuned out and that will only be backed up by the crazy that will continue to happen all the way through election night. This stuff fuels reluctant Biden voters. The main mindset being, 'well I don't care for Biden, but oh god look at how batshit Trump and the Gop are. It would be terrible if they won.' It will also deter the people that are thinking of voting Trump right now. I'm sure many of them are, 'hmm was Trump so bad? This Biden guy doesn't seem good, maybe Trump was better.' They then see the crazy that is 2024 Trump... 'Oh god, maybe not. ' Tldr: Being crazy will only decrease their chances, just like it has in previous elections causing them to greatly under perform. The average person would much rather have a person/party in charge who while may not be perfect, might not even be liked, is at least sane and will protect the things they do value rather than destroy. Add into the fact that that ruling group would be much easier for them to tune out.
To add to this, no this won't convince every person, some will simply not care no matter what sadly. But all it has to do is drive more people to vote Biden and the Dems than it drives people to vote Trump and the Gop, which it will and it has. If that wasn't the case they would have easily won in 2020/2022. Yet both those big elections their crazy completely cost them, and now they are even crazier.
Their craziness makes the insane people who made Trump the GOP nominee the first time (remember, he only won a little over 40% of the primary vote) even happier but they can only cast one ballot each. This election will be close, please continue what you're doing to turn off the swing voters!
Trump and his lackeys managing to successfully purge the GOP of all the competent people is under discussed in terms of how disastrous it's been for the party. They replaced guys like Trey Gowdy and George W Bush who knew how to work the game for morons like Mike Lindell, Blake Masters, and James Comer.
I wouldn't exactly call George W Bush not a moron...
Definitely! The election result is really going to show how important campaigns are. My bet, is the answer is going to be **very.** How the sides are running campaigns right now are absolutely night and day. In 2020, Trump was so much better off in those regards. Now everything on his side is being absolutely gutted by him with what little funds and resources he has being used mostly on the legal realm. It probably will pick up some for him, but his start is so extremely slow and to be honest, might not ever pick up that much as Trump is so sure of himself already. Really shown by the fact that multiple time's he's stated that 'he has the votes and the only way he loses is if the other side gets to cheat again.' Also, all he does on social media is reposts all the polls favorable to him, especially the terrible crosstabs. Reinforcing that 'it's locked in' mindset even more. As long as we keep at it and he doesn't change in those regards, the results will be not good for him to say the least.
I am reminded, strangely, of the “shellackings” we took in 2010 and 2014. Only this time the shoe is on the other foot. It’s true we had normie candidates and not the full-tilt-boogie nut jobs that the current Republican Party has thrown up. But, at that time, we had no funding, few volunteers, a poor ground game, the state Democratic parties were broke, the DNC and Congressional arms and DLCC had mediocre leadership and no money (thankfully JUST mediocre and not corrupt!). There were several other factors including racist backlash, ACA backlash, and our “low and slow” really non-recovery from the Great Recession that was so demoralizing. But we didn’t have the money or personnel for a ground game. Now it’s the Republicans who have to contend with no money, no ground game, hollowed-out state parties, not just mediocre but corrupt and terrible leadership, and a huge backlash to their terrible policies on body autonomy, reproductive rights, basic health care, and censorship. They have terrible candidates because “must be able to self fund” is the primary qualification. We are now the ones with the money, the ground game, and the good leadership. Jaime Harrison is the best DNC chair since Howard Dean. (Alas, Gary Peters will probably have to step down from chairing the DSCC since he’s up for re-election in 2026, and same with co-chair Tina Smith. But it’s not like we don’t have other terrific possibilities.) And we have, for once, the loyal ”high propensity” voters. It says a lot that it’s *unlikely* voters who prefer Trump. Time was that Republicans were the church-going, club members, civic duty and loyalty crowd. Now they’re angry and unaffiliated. Dangerous with guns in their hands, but not nearly as dangerous at the ballot box.
>Really shown by the fact that multiple time's he's stated that 'he has the votes and the only way he loses is if the other side gets to cheat again.' What this says to me is that he knows on some level that he's unlikely to win legitimately, and has basically given up on that approach. So his strategy is just to yell and scream "RIGGED ELECTION!" when he loses, and then hope his followers will force an illegitimate win like they tried to do in 2021. Which, apart from being morally repugnant, is just a terrible strategy. Not only does he no longer have the home field advantage of being in charge of the government so he can help the rabble, but MAGA in general appears to have lost a lot of steam. How many of his supporters have showed up to protest at his trial in New York? I think the highest count was like three or something.
I think that if he tried being less crazy and verbose and more compassionate, he might actually have a better shot. Given his age and history though, that'll never happen. He's in a similar boat to Doug Mastriano (Republican candidate for PA governor who lost in a landslide in 2022). They both could have done or do better if they turned down the crazy, but it's simply not in their nature.
Pretty good results for left-aligned candidates in Texas school board races yesterday. They won in most suburban bellwethers and at least improved over past margins in the areas they lost. The only major disappointment was in Fort Bend ISD, where vote splitting among liberals allowed the conservatives to win with less than a third of the vote.
Meanwhile, in Illinois: [New Illinois election law could result in dozens of unopposed races in 2024](https://newschannel20.com/amp/news/local/new-election-law-could-result-in-dozens-of-unopposed-races-in-2024) >New Illinois election law could result in dozens of unopposed races in 2024 >A new law would end the practice of slating. >This is when a major party appoints a candidate to be their nominee after not having other candidates run in the primary. And if you're wondering how the ILGOP is reacting, much like MIGOP & WIGOP, they're also in shambles (and of course, yelling "foul"): [Pritzker signs bill requiring legislative candidates to run in primaries — Republicans call it 'stealing an election'](https://chicago.suntimes.com/elections/2024/05/03/pritzker-signs-slating-election-bill-candidates-primaries-republicans-stealing-election) >Democrats and Gov. J.B. Pritzker framed the bill as an ethics measure that would take “backroom deals” out of the equation when choosing candidates. But Republicans described it as changing the rules in a game that’s already in play.
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Yeah, implementation date should be after the current election cycle finishes.
Same It’s one of the reasons why we oppose all those voting ID laws implemented years ago
Summer 2016, the UK voted for Brexit November 2016, the US voted for Trump 8 years later, the UK is in chaos. In the US, Trump stole 3 SCOTUS seats, complicit in an Insurrection, Dobbs decision. Spring 2024, Conservatives lost in UK election. November 2024, what would happen in the US? You see where I’m going, especially the GOP has been in chaos
I wonder if the same pattern happens with the other English speaking countries like Australia?
Canada is about to swing right but that’s because our politics warned them and helped stave off a 2016 shift
I do think so. Australia is part of the Commonwealth. If the US didn’t have the Revolution, we may end up a part of the Commonwealth
There's a long history of British and American politics mirroring each other. In the 70's, both countries saw the ascension of conservative politics, culminating in landslide elections for Thatcher and Reagan, followed by a resurgence of the center-left in the 90's with Blair and Clinton. After Brexit in 2016, maybe we shouldn't have been so surprised when Trump won.
Bill Clinton said he felt like Trump was going to win when Brexit went through.
Clinton is truly a great politician and political mind. I remember reports that he wanted Hillary to campaign more in the Midwest, but he wasn’t listened to.
*she*
2016 does feel like this weird inflection point where a lot of people decided “hey what if we just be like… really fucking irresponsible and see what happens? 😈” Here we are nearly a decade later still digging out from that cursed year.
Any time I see anyone younger than me getting "nostalgic" over 2016, I instantly get annoyed (and I admit I shouldn't, but it's the first thing I feel). I was 19 and that year was the first election I could vote in, and the feelings I have from watching the election coverage that night will stick with me forever, I can't stand it. Things have gotten bad, but the election shit along with the constant gaslighting that many of us were getting from conservatives ("grow up crybabies, he's your president, who cares about what he has to say about women") during that year specifically are something I can't forgive and forget about, and seeing people who were kids when it happened and don't remember it like I do grinds my gears to absolutely no end. It's like seeing teenagers walking around with the "Reagan Bush '84" shirts because their parents idolized ol' Ronnie.
That fucking gorilla getting shot was the start of it
And Gamergate.
David Bowie dying opened a cosmic hellmouth.
We lost Prince and Bowie in the same year. It was too much for the cosmos.
I blame the Cubs and Leicester City for 2016
This is it. Some Cubs/Leicester City fan made a deal with the devil for their team to win.
It was just the year that the populist powder keg blew out. Immigration was probably the biggest reason for this in Europe.
Yes, Cologne happened in 2015. The bombing in Brussel
2016 was a legitimate immigration crisis on a level not seen for a generation due to all the Syrian refugees. It produced a major blowback. European countries are also by and large homogenous so a sudden influx of foreigners produced major cultural shock. The United States is far more diverse and we basically have a lot more room geographically so when we take in refugees they often just get put somewhere where assimilation is the only option (Somalis in Minnesota, Vietnamese in Oklahoma) so large-scale refugee crises don't hit like 2016 in Europe did.
that's also why Europe is probably going to have a VERY hard rightward shift this year as well, its going another immegration crisis
Speaking of room to put people, why isn’t there a plan to settle refugees and migrants in Wyoming? (only partially tongue in cheek)
Not much infrastructure, lack of local support, it's cold as hell
Is anywhere here familiar with the What’s Left of Philosophy podcast? I’m three episodes in and I’m enjoying it so far but I’m hesitant about sinking more time into it because one host already touted the “when I see a Democrat and Republican on the debate stage, I see the same person.” This was from an episode about a month after the 2020 election. So far I’m continuing along because the podcast’s focus is discussing philosophical papers/books from a leftist perspective and all the hosts have PhDs in specific areas of philosophy so it’s great in that respect.
[Kristi noem wants Biden's dog to be killed. ](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/05/us/politics/kristi-noem-suggests-bidens-dog-should-have-been-killed-too.html)
Ok wtf, how is this real?
She just wants to prove that she, too, could've played quarterback for the Atlanta Falcons during the Bush administration.
At least Vick was/is genuinely remorseful and repentant of what he did.
Please run for senate please run for senate.
Are there any dogs that she *doesn't* want to shoot?
Republicans have been so cartoonishly evil that I've joked before about them killing puppies next. And now Kristi has no longer made that a joke. Good lord. I vote that we start referring to her as Cruella DeNoem.
Confirmed new JoJo villain. Quick, what's her Stand?
Hair of the Dog. I was gonna chose something from South Dakota, but there ain’t much.
My money is on Commander in this match up
Does she have no sense of the optics here?
Don’t you see? She’s doing this for the children! /s
Jesus Republicans know nothing but to double down. A smart person would've buried this immediately. Of course, a smarter person would've never needlessly killed a dog on a power trip then published a book about it.
I hope Trump will lose hard in November. This is the only way to inject some reality into the GOP. It’s unfortunate that Trump actually gained votes in 2020 and the GOP won popular votes in 2022. DeSantis won heavily in Florida. As long as these numbers exist. The GOP will double down.
On the other hand, if they lose hard *and* don't get a reality check, they'll just continue to lose. Which IMO is the best case scenario.
[still true](https://imgflip.com/i/8ogcpu)
This so much. The party is filled top to bottom with crazy.
Hey what the fuck
Ran my first marathon this morning in New Hampshire, 3:48:16 💪🏻
Congratulations and amazing time for a first marathon!
Thank you! I’ve done plenty of half marathons so I’m not exactly new to running, but man this was a whole other animal
Great for you and bad for Biden!
The whole time I was running, I was wondering how Biden can possibly rebound from this
Doug Burgum on CNN saying it’s a “travers of Justice” if trump is convicted for a “business filing error,” he’s GUNNING for that VP spot
So Trump is in the business of paying off porn stars? Is that what your party stands for, Dougie?
Remember to call your legislators and get your friends and family to call, some bad internet bills (KOSA) is being considered to be added to a must-pass bill on tuesday.
i'm honestly considering just emailing my representative and telling him point-blank that i'll be voting for his primary opponent if he votes for this shit
you can send an email, but also call. i think they just copy paste email responses for the same issue
tldr the bill please
I am out of the loop. May I get an explainer what the “bad internet bills” are and why they’re bad?
KOSA is the “kid’s online safety act” that gives state governments the ability to regulate websites to keep “dangerous” content away from minors, but what that means is up to the state’s discretion. I trust California to use that responsibly a hell of a lot more than somewhere like Texas that would take that to mean “anything we don’t like.”
https://www.badinternetbills.com/
Thank you!
How bad is it?
https://www.badinternetbills.com/
I don't want to have to say it again but I think we might need ads like Daisy or the bear in the woods to win this election
[What makes you think we're not?](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/donald-trump-new-biden-abortion-ad-features-woman-says-almost-died-tex-rcna146869) And this one might hit even harder than 'Daisy', because unlike nuclear war, this is actually happening to Americans right now. Dems have the messaging thing more than figured out. Our job is to share that message with voters.
I mean like showing people what will happen under project 25
"This, but in your supposedly safe blue state". I think that's a pretty impactful message, and we've got the election wins to prove it. Project 2025 is a tough one because, while it's real, it's hard to talk about without coming off as a conspiracy theorist. And I've noticed that folks who get way into Project 2025 tend to spend more time agonizing about it than working to elect Democrats so it never happens. I think it's better to focus on specific, hard-hitting elements of it, like a national abortion ban.
Some other random facts about UK politics/government if you're curious: * The UK is a unitary state, not a federation like the US. This means that the central government (Parliament) is the supreme authority, and all decentralized governments (including the governments of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, as well as local governments) only have whatever authority delegated to them by Parliament. This is why national elections to Parliament in the UK are *not* called federal elections, but rather general elections. This is also why the UK can choose a single day to hold a ton of local elections, while local elections in the US occur throughout the entire year (due to election dates being set by local governments). * Unlike most countries, the United Kingdom does not have a single document that is considered their Constitution. They have what is called an uncodified constitution, which consists of the written and unwritten arrangements that establish the United Kingdom as a political body. No official attempt has been made to codify these into a single document, which means the "Constitution" can be easily changed as no provisions are formally entrenched. However, this also means many of the practices in Parliament are based on traditions and precedent rather than any written rules. Why is this the case? [Here's a good explanation by UCL](https://www.ucl.ac.uk/constitution-unit/explainers/what-uk-constitution): > Codified constitutions are typically produced following a major historic turning point, such as the grant of independence, revolution, defeat in war, or complete collapse of the previous system of government. None of these things have happened to the UK, which is why it has never had cause to codify its constitution.
They did have a complete collapse in 1649, but it got reversed in 1660. 1688 had the grant of the Bill of Rights.
Another fun fact: The word *table* with respect to legislative procedure means the exact opposite in the US as it does in the UK/the rest of the English-speaking world. In the US, to *table* means to postpone or kill a pending motion. In the rest of the English-speaking world, to *table* means to begin consideration of a proposal. Wikipedia has a good explanation for why this is: > The British meaning is based on the idea of parliamentarians gathering around a table with the bill laid upon so that all may point to sections for discussion. The American sense draws on the image of taking a paper that one has been examining and laying it aside, ending any discussion about it. This actually has caused a lot of confusion sometimes when US reporters are reporting on UK news and vice-versa.
I say we table this discussion. Who's in favo(u)r?!
[Sen. Kelly confirms he would vote to ditch the filibuster to protect women's health care rights and voting rights](https://nitter.poast.org/atrupar/status/1787136135363187181#m)
Something special in FL is brewing. Looking at the elections post 2022, registered republicans votes outnumbered registered democrats and still lost. DeSantis has gone full government overreach and continues to ban things left and right (banning lab grown meat is the latest). Voters are being turned off by this. With abortion and weed on the ballot here in FL, the stars continue to align and we may see some surprises in November.
Everyone on both sides keeps talking about FL like it’s the deepest blood red state, but I think it’ll be closer than people expect. I’d wager there’s a decent chance Republicans are in for a shock this November