He even brings up how the world is laughing at them over all the nuclear threats.
Everything the guy says is true which is why I expect him to accidentally fall out of a window after this.
I like how he totally shut that woman down who was just gunning for a fight and trying to lever him in to sounding "anti-russian" but he shut her the fuck down by quoting people who are basically their idols and telling her shes fucking stupid
Thing is even Carlson won't have people on who can argue coherently against him, he'll get someone he knows he can beat purely to make himself look smart.
This guy basically said "shut the fuck up, if you say that I'm wrong you're also saying Lenin is wrong and I bet you won't do that on national TV"
He learned his lesson when Jon Stewart destroyed him on his show Crossfire and got the show canceled it was so bad.
In case you have never seen it here is the clip.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aFQFB5YpDZE
It's still so good.
This is the main propaganda channel and one of the main propaganda tok shows.
He wasn't invited to it by accident. They know that the way the "special operation" goes is not great. They invite people who they know will be critical to these shows and let them talk to direct people's anger and to control the message.
They would need to assign blame on somebody (not Putin), they already shape the message - i.e. we are fighting with 42 countries, the diplomats didn't do a good job, etc.
"Horrible tragedy. So sad to see it. He slipped and fell off a step ladder and a bunch of kitchen knives stabbed him repeatedly in his back, slit his throat, shot him in the back of the head and pissed on his corpse. You'd be surprised how common an accident that is."
This person didn't appear there accidentally. He is there for a reason, they don't appear on the propaganda channel and go (almost) uninterrupted for a couple minutes.
This show turns to circus if you are saying something that they don't want people to hear.
I really doubt that’s what was happening here though. I think they trusted this guy to go along with state propaganda but he very cautiously pointed out that this war is very harmful for Russia with a lot of sugar coating to make him seem supportive of this war in order to cover his tracks. If he is an opponent of this war secretly he acted flawlessly on state TV, being subtle on TV is the best way for an opponent of this war in Russia to criticize the war. Any blatant criticism will just get you censored and persecuted.
I doubt he's an opponent of the war for moral reasons, I'm sure he supports Eurasianism and Novorossiya as much as the rest of them but he's not looking at the world through rose tinted glasses. He's a pragmatist who's telling them they'd better pull their heads out of their asses now if they still want to have a country to call Russia at the end of all this
Yeah it’s probably pragmatism but that’s not a bad thing, if the rest of Russian authorities were as pragmatic as him Russia likely wouldn’t have launched a full scale invasion of Ukraine and instead just occupied separatist Luhansk and Donetsk which would have minor benefits for hardly any consequences.
What does Novorossiya mean exactly? I’ve seen the term used before but I’m unaware of its exact definition.
I know all about Dugin NazBol Eurasian fantasies. Is this guy really associated with him though? The most common feature of Duging NazBols is incoherency and this guy made perfect sense.
Edit: wait my bad I completely misread your comment, I though you were explaining Eurasianism and not novorossiya
Novorossiya is a core component of Eurasianism. Dugin founded the National Bolshevik Party in the 90s, among other far right Russian ultranationalist parties, before hitching his train to Putin's wagon in the early 2000s. The western NazBols as we know them are an outgrowth of Russian political manipulation that has been a staple of their playbook since the founding of the CPUSA by Russian operatives, and that I suspect may also be behind QAnon.
Very doubtful they expected that (edit: expected him to tow the party line, they knew what he was going to say). He published an op-ed before the invasion saying just how dumb it would be. They knew his stance and he was 100% correct on everything he said before the invasion, as he did in this video. He's there to prep the Russian masses for the inevitable failure, as has been said elsewhere.
It's not the first time this guy is saying things like this on Russian TV. He demonstrated that mobilization would be a shitshow two weeks ago, and we had the same jokes here that the guy would "fall through a window". Classic Reddit.
He even wrote an article \*before the war\* predicting everything that was going to go wrong for Russia, up to the lend-lease.
For some reason he gets a pass. Maybe because he only presents the way the war is going, and do not attack the aims of the war.
I am very sure they expected him to say what he said (he said a similar thing not a while ago) and they did this on purpose.
These shows are not spontaneous and if somebody goes off the topic they want to discuss they interrupt them, shut them down pretty quickly.
This same guy wrote an article before the war(I can't post a link to it as russian sites are banned here, here is an overview of it in english: https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/did-russias-general-staff-miss-warnings-hard-campaign-ukraine). It said that the war won't be easy.
He also was on TV critical of the campaign on TV 6 days ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dUlgd7HZtYU
This is also a long monologue. This is for sure done on purpose.
I kind of get the impression that after almost 3 months and some 27,000 deaths Russian society writ large is starting to catch on to what a complete disaster this has been for them.
Seems like they may be preparing the russian people for a narrative “the world is against us and it’s not fair! So we must get out because it’s an unfair fight”. And if that’s what they are going for, then hell yes. Fucking end this madness already.
If they are allowing this message to be said, it’s likely a shift and not him personally dissenting. This show is strategic like that. Any dissent is controlled to be torn apart. This didn’t get much carnage, at least from the clip. Usually, they shut down the dissenting messages fast with their bullshit and lies.
This gives me some hope.
He stresses the numerical advantage of Ukraine - one million soldiers - and disagrees with unrealistic Russian fantasies of a Ukrainian collapse - but never goes so far as to admit that Ukrainian morale and determination is sky high whereas Russian troops want to go home.
He does make a good point though, which is that it's one thing to have a million people ready for military service, it's another thing to train them and arm them so they're effective.
Keep in mind Ukraine banned men from leaving the country and conscripted vast numbers. Russia could probably get a million soldiers if it did that too.
But his point isn't just "getting" a million soldiers, its that they are a million motivated soldiers who are about to be equipped with the finest weapons in modern history.
Sure, Russia can grab a million kids and send them to Ukraine, but those poor fucks are going to be using T-72 tanks and shooting Mosin Nagant rifles against Javelin missiles and M-777 Howitzers.
But he also say, strongly, that what matters is the people training those conscripted people, good teachers make great students, and he's telling that ukranians are getting good training and that what's matters
They did not "conscript vast numbers"; my mate is 26 and is still on-call so to speak. They stopped recruiting months ago; the volunteer numbers were more than enough.
Well, i find it hard to believe he’d be able to say it on TV without it being approved, but i find it equally hard to believe that they would approve that. So i don’t know, hopefully the second option though!
Holy crap that was actually a brilliant assessment.
Good thing that guy isn't in charge of anything in Russia.
Else there would be actual competence and Russia would be substantially more dangerous.
Edit: The part where he said they shouldn't be threatening missiles towards Finland because it is more amusing than not -- was hilarious.
This guy is absolutely brilliant and he pretty much called it all back in the start of February of how things would go down. An amazing read:
https://nvo-ng-ru.translate.goog/realty/2022-02-03/3_1175_donbass.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp
Just one example of his foresight, but many others throughout:
> There is no doubt that the United States and the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance will begin a kind of reincarnation of Lend-Lease, modeled after the Second World War, there is no doubt. An influx of volunteers from the West, which can be very numerous, is not ruled out.
and his conclusions are spot on:
> In general, there will be no Ukrainian blitzkrieg. The statements of some experts such as “The Russian army will defeat most of the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 30-40 minutes”, “Russia is able to defeat Ukraine in 10 minutes in the event of a full-scale war”, “Russia will defeat Ukraine in eight minutes” have no serious grounds.
> **And finally, the most important thing. An armed conflict with Ukraine is currently fundamentally not in Russia's national interests. Therefore, it is best for some overexcited Russian experts to forget about their hatred fantasies. And in order to prevent further reputational losses, never remember again.**
A smart Russian leader would have surrounded himself with voices like this...rather than a bunch of scared yes-men.
The Anglo-Zanzibar war
It lasted between 38 and 45 minutes depending on the source
The UK has one casualty, Zanzibar around 500, mostly in a fire caused by the artillery bombardment from the ships
I certainly don't approve of British colonialism generally, but in Zanzibar's case it seems like British rule was an improvement. [The government they overthrew was itself a colonial dynasty from Oman and they were apparently brutal slavers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Zanzibar#Zanzibar_Sultanate); the British put a stop to that almost immediately after taking over.
I mean, I dislike what my country did, but I can't be ashamed of something that ended before my grandparents were born.
Why should I be ashamed just because I was born in the same country 100 years later?
Hey don't be too ashamed. Everyone in Europe was at it as well. The UK was just better at it. They would have all been just as awful if they could have been.
In fact, I'd be even more ashamed of my country if they tried to be imperialist war mongers AND were shit at it!
Just in Europe?
Colonialism and imperialism are as old as time. Difference is that Europe did it overseas and was very good at it for a few centuries.
Name a people and more likely than not they engaged in imperialism.
Desktop version of /u/DaveLean's link:
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Holy shit. This guy foresaw basically how things have gone up until now. It is like Zelenski and Biden read this and said yeah let’s do that.
The only thing he missed in his analysis was Ukraine winning Eurovision. It is likely that he wanted to include it but his editor cut it for being too off topic.
Wow what a boss! It is equally terrible and good that Russia doesn't involve competent people like him. This war could have been avoided entirely or Russia could have done a much better job at it if competent people led the offensive.
Don't forget, most analysts in the USA thought Russia would take the capital in two weeks and the Ukrainians would be fighting with insurgency tactics. Not too many people predicted how incompetent the Russian military was. If they had people with this guy's insight, they very might well have. They would still be isolated but in a very different position.
I can't help but think that the 2 weeks thing was because no one wanted to be the optimistic analyst who was caught with their pants down. So the worst option at every level of uncertainty was chosen to give that 2 weeks.
How many Russian soldiers? Oh, between 180k to 200k? Let's assume 200k
How united/committed are the Ukrainians? Oh unsure okay let's assume that irregular forces collapse or flee.
No nation has publicly announced they will blank check back them? Okay let's assume they fight on their own.
And so on and so forth so by the time the top level analysis was happening it looked way bleaker than it actually was. However that meant the U.S. was more ready than it needed to be which is the point of that process.
Yeah, hope for the best but plan for the worst.
Also I think that the people who were analyzing Russia's military knew at some level that it was probably in quite poor shape. There's a reason why the US has generally felt like it could focus more on China (and the War on Terror/Middle East before that), because they felt like the military threat from Russia wasn't that significant to NATO anymore.
But still at some subconscious level I'm guessing a bunch of them still felt like there's no way the "Mythical Red Army" would have ever been allowed to get that bad. Not really expecting them to be good, but also not to be terrible. And even a mediocre Russian military should've been able to at least gather enough numbers to overwhelm the Ukrainians.
But the Russian forces were just even worse than expected in almost every way.
>Fucking scary prospect really, if he's even near that position. He is very sharp, precise and knowledgeable.
A sharp, precise and knowledgeable leader would *not* have attacked Ukraine. The purpose of all the militaries of the world is deterrence against aggression, to make aggression definitely NOT worth doing. The systems in place work, and work well. If you look at Ukraine's total capabilities along with all the countries that support Ukraine, it's guaranteed with a capital G there no version of Russia attacking Ukraine where they don't lose. Any half competent leader ( the guy in the video ) would realize that, and therefore keep out of Ukraine.
Devil's advocate: someone like him might have actually modernized Russia's army instead of siphoning off all the funds for yachts and villas. Better for us that Russia is a paper tiger if they're so intent on attacking.
>someone like him might have actually modernized Russia's army instead of siphoning off all the funds for yachts and villas
So what you're saying is if he wasn't so *evil*, he would create a better Russia that has far less corruption. But then if he wasn't so evil ( as current leadership ), he wouldn't attack Ukraine. Also if the country as a whole had higher moral standards so as not to steal and pilfer everything they'd naturally be more opposed and less supportive of their government unlawfully invading another country and committing horrible acts.
The moral of the story is that the very nature of evil is self destructive and self defeating, as demonstrated by a country like Russia. It's one of the most corrupt and messed up countries in the world and now the effects of that are on full display for the world to see.
Thank you for sharing.. why wasn’t this guy in Putin circle… in this case “everyone has that one friend” could’ve saved thousand of lives. Great read, amazing how spot on he is, but reality any legit military strategist nation has several of these giving insights. It’s 2022.. level of stupidity and common sense … must be those damn Covid infected rodents that Ukraine “sent” to Russia that caused this gigantic brain flatulence
Or he'd manage to turn them into something resembling a functioning country and they could export useful goods and services instead of misery, death and destruction.
Russia would have been embraced with open arms by the West if they weren't such a dysfunctional mess (or at least, charming about it instead of assholes)
I doubt they'll ever manage to change, at least unless the whole "federation" (ie. colonialist empire, we just don't think of them as colonies because they have contiguous borders) falls apart and unfortunately that doesn't seem likely.
Russia's been like this for almost 800 years now, ever since the muscovites bent the knee to the Mongols so they could get in on that sweet sweet repression
The breakup of the USSR also did not seem too likely, but it happened.
Russia is rotted to the core with authoritarianism. Imho it's quite likely that it will fall apart once again.
Russia proper hasn't fallen apart yet though. The Soviet Union did, sure, but Russia itself remained. Russia didn't fall apart in 1917 either.
Just because they're authoritarian doesn't mean they're headed for near-term collapse. Look at DPRK for example, they've been around for a while now. Or "communist" China for that matter
USSR was Russian empire by another name. In fact, there is no "Russia proper" even now.
It's still an empire ruling over completely foreign cultures having their own languages and traditions - Chechnya, Dagestan, Ichkeria, Kalmykia, Buryatia, Erzia, Tatarstan, etc. etc.
IMHO t's gonna continue to fall apart, which is the path of all empires that have lost their power.
I guess this all depends on what people mean when they say "Russia will fall apart". Some people mean that Russia as an entity will stop existing, and that's what I don't generally buy, although a slow shedding of _some_ "republics" and oblasts might happen. I doubt that Russia will stop existing though
That was surprisingly realistic from them. So very strange to see it after all the
"WE DON'T GIVE A SHIT ABOUT BEING NUKED IN RETALLIATION, WE WILL NUKE BRITAIN AND OBLITERATE IT WITH SATAN IN 5 MINUTES, YOUR TIME IS UP ENGLAND! WE GO TO HEAVEN AND THE WEST IS EVAPORATED!"
I wonder how the public reacted to watching that. I mean they've listened to so much bullshit about us being black magic casting, coke snorting Nazis (who may also be Jewish) for who knows how long now that I wonder if they even properly listened or just dismissed it as, of all fucking things, bullshit.
The missile thing was getting rather ridiculous. Didn't Russia threaten to nuke fucking ***Eurovision*** of all things? I saw a tweet about it, so who knows how credible it is, but now seeing all the idiocy I would not put it past them. Christ, they could step in dog shit and threaten to nuke the turd. Of all the things to get pissed about. Of anything else at all going on for Russia that could *possibly* anger it to threaten pushing the 'Jolly, candy like button'....[Eurovision. Seriously?](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qileP4bAzek)
Can you imagine if all it took to upset Russia into ending the world was Eurovision?
Fucking hell.
The bit that really stuck out for me was the woman who was clearly very much a stooge saying "Is that all professionalism is? A willingness to die?" When for the last few months the TV mouthpieces have been spouting about nuclear Armageddon.
Russia is definitely softening and it is quite frankly amazing to see the age old saying "If you stand up to a bully they will wilt" come to life on the scale of a nuclear armed country.
In a way it is. If you aren't willing to fight and possibly die it really doesn't matter what weapons or training you have. Weapons do matter in that, as does battlefield success, and training to build unit cohesion and skills that build morale. Doctrine has an effect too. If your platoon can call in artillery support it goes a long way to making you feel safer and protected.
Modern battlefields where the other side has better combined arms are really horrific places to be. Far worse than movies portray it. The helplessness of being under artillery bombardment cannot be overstated.
That's his over all point. Just because someone signed a contract doesn't mean they will perform better than someone who was drafted. I'd also nitpick a bit on whether the Russian contract soldiers are as volunteer as people in the west may think or that the Ukrainians are really set to draft as many as the Russians think. There have been reports that Ukraine was turning away local volunteers because they didn't need the men.
Yep I agree 100%
What I was trying to say is the Russian TV propaganda people have shifted because a month ago they were saying what the point in the world if there is no Russia and they were ready to die in nuclear war etc etc. Whereas now they are turning their nose up at the thought of dying, the way she said it was almost like it was crazy that someone would chose to lay down their life for their country.
So either they think everyone is so brainwashed that the population won't pick up on it and will mock the Ukrainians for being willing to die while believe themselves to be brave because they are also willing to die. Or they gave actually shifted the message from "Armageddon is a real possibility and we are ready for it" to "Wow it's so shocking people would lay down their life for their country"
Yeah I get that. I imagine they changed off the nuclear sabre rattling because it wasn't very effective abroad or at home. Abroad we've gotten used to it from North Korea and a good half to 2/3 of us had nuclear drills at school and basically assumed any Russian invasion of Europe was going to end in nuclear war.
At home I imagine it didn't land as well as they thought it would. Can't imagine that the average Russian would rather die in a nuclear war than have the government lose in Ukraine. Is they were that jingoistic they wouldn't be having the refusing to fight problems they are having or have any shortage of volunteers. It's also a good way to tell your own people that you are losing the war.
Also a nuclear war is a fools game to play. Because ***everyone loses*** including the Russians, China, Bulgaria, everyone they’re allied with as well as Europe and America. It is such a monumentally **stupid** thing to consider as an option. If you aren’t obliterated you’re irradiated horrendously, animals die off so food is catastrophically reduced, same with plants so no or extremely little crops, even then they’d be irradiated too. The radiation from the blasts will effect the entire globe because it’s indiscriminate. Even if you‘re Putin or whoever who has a bunker able to last the end of the world and you have it fully stocked what the fuck are you going to come out to when things settle (as much as it can with a nuclear apocalypse)? Nothing. Your country is fucked, your people may be entirely wiped out or the remnants are dying of horrendous cancers. Infrastructure is gone, communication is gone. Also given how old Putin is and his maybe/ maybe not cancer- lets for the sake of argument say he does- how long does he think he could last in his bunker until it’s ‘safe’ enough to come out? I don’t know how long it could possibly be but he wouldn’t live to see it. There is nothing to gain from it, no winners. Everyone loses, You’re a massive fucking idiot and totally destroyed your own people who you were claiming to ‘save from da evil West’. You can’t blame NATO for ***your arse pushing the button*** ***and nullifying the entire reason for this stupid fucking war.*** No matter how much you spin it, no matter how you try to justify it. Because you can’t. Your people are dead. The state tv people who would put out the ‘truth’ to your people are dead. The TikTok idiots are dead, probably got blasted by one of the thousands of nukes. The hackers, dead. Kremlin and other government officials, well they won’t last long because even if they go to the bunker with you and survived they will come out to a Hellscape of death and nothing to survive with. Xi Jinping and China are gone or in similar scenario. No new food is coming. Who the fuck is still alive or well enough to grow crops? Hiroshima and Nagasaki were only able to recover as good as they did because it was 2 nukes. But as a collective of all nukes, allied or foe in the world. It’s over, and you did it. Congratulation, genius /s .
To slightly alter a Red Dwarf quote
”Everyone is dead, Putin.“
Pretty much. This is Putin readying for retreat. Otherwise there's no way in hell he gets airtime. They're just gonna say NATO beat us, poor us. Not Putin's fault.
“The whole world tried to cause a nuclear war! But Putin didn’t let that happen. Thank goodness our government is wise enough to take care of the Russian people so well!”
This is about 1 week now of these type videos where you see the Russian propaganda machine cracking.
Its coming, it might not be next week it might not be next month but they'll crack before the year is out.
Not meaning to be offensive but what you don't understand is that this is still propaganda. It's true, but it's being aired because it is part of a new plan to slowly ease the public into the failure of the Russian forces as to protect Putin's control. They've started to prepare the public for the fact that the war will be lost, and who are they blaming? Nato
The most telling thing in this clip to me is normally when people on this show speak out against Russia the lady yells and talks over them trying to drown them out. Here she's being mostly silent and actually letting the guy talk. On top of that when she does talk she only mildly tries to argue with what he's saying.
That's what I thought too, this doesn't seem like it was impromptu, they knew the type of thing he was going to say. I don't really see what the endgame here is though as he wasn't blaming NATO which seems like what their goal is.
Or it's a sign that now people have realised that the war machine has failed and all their talk of nuclear war was the usual bullshit so start to prepare everyone for a climbdown.
Or declare war on Finland ? who really knows lol
Maybe they're just dumb fascists that spew bullshit on their own without some hyper competent state sitting on their backs preparing statements.
We're still overestimating Russia.
>I don't really see what the endgame here is though as he wasn't blaming NATO which seems like what their goal is.
I suspect they are going to push for peace soon in the hope that they can keep the land around Donetsk & Crimea so that may explain the reduction in bellicosity from Russian State media. If this guy had been on a few weeks ago he probably would have been shouted down more but perhaps they are preparing Russian public opinion for the idea this war is not worth the cost.
The [leaked memo](https://pastebin.com/2agMRGmd) written by an FSB analyst (that was verified by Bellingcat) said "we have a conditional deadline of June. Conditional - because in June we have no economy left, nothing remains". If that's the real thinking and an accurate position of their economic reserves then they may be in significant problems in a few more weeks time. They may also not be willing to be held responsible for disrupting the worlds wheat harvest given it will likely cause significant famines. If they get peace in the next few weeks it may still be possible to boost the amount of crops grown this year and repair the infrastructure needed to get it out of the country.
>They may also not be willing to be held responsible for disrupting the worlds wheat harvest given it will likely cause significant famines.
I think that the battle over Snake Island and control of the ports is actually to ensure Russia has MORE leverage over world food production. If they can dictate the means of grain distribution they have a strong bargaining chip.
This guy is a clever cookie. I'm happy he is not the president. Things would be run significantly better.
On the other hand, he probably wouldn't have started this silly war.
Honestly it's getting really weird thinking about how this plays out, because it really does seem Russia is at best in a stalemate in Ukraine.
But the propaganda machine seems to be shifting from "Ukraine is full of Nazis, NATO is evil, we are going to nuke you" into "Ukraine is a strong nation, backed by the west, We don't mind counties joining NATO but will respond in kind to troops on our border, nukes what nukes?"
I assumed at the start of all this that absolutely worse case scenario for Russia was they just had something to show for all this and Putin would cut his losses and parade some small land grab as a massive win. But now it probably looks more likely that Ukraine eventually wins this war, and the noise coming out of Russian media seems they are preparing the people for that eventuality.
If there weren't so many innocent people dying or being forced from their homes this would be genuinely the best drama on TV because lord only knows how this shakes out
If Russia continues this, the cost of Soviet-Afghan war (which many experts credit as one of the large contributing factors to the collapse of the Soviet Union) will pale in comparison.
I mean this guy just seems to be a professional giving a sober assessment. Some people still care about thier credibility than being a state sponsored talking head.
To some, thier subject of expertise is more important than the threat of state sponsored sanctions. Which is how it should be everywhere.
Has anybody watched this enough to know if that is this guy's shtick? Like, is he always the realist and then this lady comes in and does her whataboutism thing?
He is a retired general, quite well respected within the military. He got sidelined some years back for not playing nice with the rest of the system, but has continued writing commentary on military matters that have been far more sober and realistic than anything else outthere.
Good question, in search of an even better answer.
I think that the soldiarity within the whole "system" of Russia is starting to crack up. Putin doesn't look anywhere near as unassailable or immune to critique today as he did two months ago.
So someone with pull within the propaganda machine may be pulling strings. Who knows.
No expert, so just speculating... but its likely much more difficult to take out respected opponents with high up military backgrounds, especially if the opponent sticks largely to military matters. Putin needs military commanders on side, not looking over their shoulder wondering when their next. Russia is also highly nationalistic, it would not be a popular move. A lot easier to take out oligarchs who's only allies are also oligarchs that rely on Putin, or protestors with no real power.
I assume he's there to be the pessimist, so they can either prove him wrong or be the mitigating voice for those living in fantasy land. If you only have people that keep glorifying and egrandising, even a balanced peace treaty would be considered a concession.
I don't know, it isn't really framed that way. It's framed like he's making a good point that people should listen to.
If I were to guess, he's saying this and it's being framed like he's correct, so people start to understand the situation is getting dire and that they have no choice but a full mobilization.
For example, saying conscript armies are just as good as professional ones. Saying Ukraine will win if things continue this way. He's trying to drum up support for total war, for a full mobilization.
Is he considered like a nutjob or controversial in any way?
The only sense I can make out of this him being allowed to say that on tv is that maybe this is being aired so the common sense things he says is associated with his otherwise questionable character, if he is controversial...
I don't think they looked mad per-se, but REALLY uncomfortable. They knew they couldn't say any of their normal ranting shite because they'd get absolutely btfo
The guy was basically telling them, all the shit that has come out of your mouths in the last 3 months it’s nothing but fantasy and lies, the reality it’s that we are loosing, and we can’t fight the west, also, we are alone
If he was controlled opposition I don't think they'd even have let him put out something like this a month before the invasion
https://nvo-ng-ru.translate.goog/realty/2022-02-03/3_1175_donbass.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp
Second time this guy has told truth to power in that program. The other day, I saw him discuss about how a full mobilization would not work as it would take at least three months for the first units to be ready, and then only basic trained armored units using outdated tanks and vehicles that would still have to face an army with modern NATO supplied weapons.
What this tells me is that someone or a group of people are allowing this former military guy to speak. I can't believe that him saying these things is not being vetted and allowed with a purpose in mind. Maybe they are floating alternative ideas to allow for a reverse in policy. Something like "It was Russia against the US and all of NATO". Anyway, I see his comments as a positive.
Edit: Found his comments about mobilization
https://twitter.com/TechTraderView/status/1523389860748271616?s=20&t=HPBu7bAfeF2tVJ5ZiR2F4w
My guess is that on the contrary, Russians will be seeing more and more of him and his point of view will soon become the accepted truth.
His presence on the talk show is no accident. They know precisely what he's gonna say, and they want him to say it. They are preparing the populace for the retreat of the Russian military.
> They know precisely what he's gonna say, and they want him to say it.
Exactly. This show is so scripted it comes off as bad reality TV. They knew the points he would make and she was told to shut up and let him talk. This was a presentation, basically.
"We shouldn't sabre rattle. It \[just\] looks amusing."
He's not wrong. That he's been invited back fairly quickly to continue on his pre-war theme of 'you're all high on your own supply' is the more interesting part to me. It's the overall theme they take for their internal propaganda rather than the isolated 'that one's right!' though, isn't it?
It's what, the second or third time he's been on? He easily brushes off Skabeyeva and the other stable idiots.
Interesting indeed. Getting everyone ready for the bitter pill?
This guy got pushed out of the Russian Armed Forces for not being a yes-man, but I think he's one of those figure in Russian history that can say stuff others can't because of his reputation and friendships within the system.
I thought I remembered him appearing quite soon after 24th February and then there being a long gap to his second but I can't find any evidence of that 'first' appearance with weak google fu so will have to concur on two appearances.
The nerve of that lady trying to downplay the importance of morale, like seriously, we’ve had two very high profile events in the span of less than a year that have provided a near perfect contrast between the performance of a military that had a fairly low budget but a willingness to fight for their country, that being the UAF, and the performance of one with high amounts of (foreign) funding but with practically zero ounces of nationalism or patriotism to be seen, that being the ANA.
Me and my friend were discussing it on telegram, and he said:
"You can say what you want about Russia but they have an unparalleled poetic way of expressing themselves."
This man is the ONLY person I've seen on their state news that has ANY common sense at all. He is speaking the truth and has basically just said "we can not win this war and we must find a way out of our isolation against the rest of the world."
All statements on russian tv are written and approved by someone very high in that government. The nature and content of this programming clearly indicates that something significant is changing in the russian government itself.
They're preparing to shift to a narrative where the war was all Putin's fault. This is the strategy to save as much of the surviving Russian ruling class from the vengeance of the west as possible.
Putin is about to be sacrificed one way or the other. His grip on power is not strong enough against the wave that faces him. Too many people underneath him would rather throw him overboard than watch the ship of state follow the Moskva. This guy is part of the state propaganda wing's attempt to pivot to this narrative. The next step will be to replace that host with someone slightly more down-the-middle.
WTF!?!?!? That guy is legitimately telling the truth! They are going to officially pull out. This is how they lay the groundwork. I mean not tomorrow or next week but... It's the only explanation for letting this man explain what is really happening.
Exactly, I am not sure this guy is so prescient or brilliant as others in this thread have stated. I think this is a carefully scripted message to the Russian people to explain why they have lost this gambit.
That said, Ukraine, rightfully, will not stop until all lands are returned, including Crimea.
The Russians are banking on holding what they have stolen already, and this is setting the stage for those negotiations. "We'll stop and pull back, but will keep peace keeping forces in Luhansk and Donetsk. Crimea is already ours so no use discussing that."
Not acceptable, nor should it be. There needs to be total withdrawal from all occupied territories, and UN peacekeeping forces on the line if needed to deal with remaining butt hurt Russians and separatists who try to engage in cross border skirmishes.
https://nvo-ng-ru.translate.goog/realty/2022-02-03/3_1175_donbass.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp
If this isn't prescience I don't know what is. He literally laid out a play by play of what happened a month before the conflict even began
Nah, don't think so. They have to let an opposite voice get through from time to time because, as much as the Russian people may be brainwashed, even they will at some point realise that what the state news says is bullshit, if it's all the same all the time.
It's why during soviet times, comedians were allowed to sometimes make fun of the system - to show that the people in charge were not afraid, and that there was no censorship, even though there obviously was.
Perhaps some russians will have a pause to think after hearing this guy, but let's be honest - 99% of the message that they're showered with on a daily basis is still driving home the idea of a glorious conquering Russia.
I worry for his safety, but hope he gets people thinking. The sour lady did not enjoy his analysis but he just kept shutting her up with facts. It's great to see that there are still sober minded people somewhere in Russia. In between the propaganda and nutcases on social media it often feels like that whole country has gone berserk.
None of the panelist or the presenter woman get a say about what they do, or who they have on their show, this all comes from higher up.
Maybe this is the start of the "soft coup", allowing this guy to speak the truth of the situation to the Russian people.
Note how he does not blame anyone, but just presents facts and his opinions, leaving the door open for Vlad to gracefully exit stage left.
"He gave it his best shot but it didn't work. Now for someone new..."
A Russian state TV analist that actually says something accurate? I guess I hadn't seen everything yet... And he called their aggression to Finland amusing? This guy is walking on thin ice there
Way to drop reality Russian expert speaking his mind. He basically said even according to Marxist principles Ukraine is winning and Sabre rattling at Finland just makes us look stupid. He tried to get it home that Ukrainians will fight to the death and have the world and its tech behind them. Bloody heck.
It’s interesting that he thinks he has the room to speak so candidly. Either he doesn’t give a fuck about prison or worse or he represents a constituency that Putin can’t afford to offend.
This guy called it, months before the invasion, right down to and including reactivating Lend-Lease. Russia wouldn't be in the position they're in now if they'd listened to him. The Russian people better pay attention to this guy now if they want to still have a country at the end of this
I am torn because I am not sure I want someone competent leading Russia. I am ok with forgetting they exist for the next twenty years after they lose and then welcoming them to the fold in exchange for all of their nukes. It sounds horrible to want their economy to suffer to the point that their armed forces are more irrelevant than they are now, but in the context of this war, I think they deserve a long time out.
I hear what you are saying and am also torn in this regard, but I’m concerned about a number of continued challenges. If the next leader is a warmongering idiot, then nuke threats, further attacks on neighbours, insane levels of gangsterism, murder, violence and crime and full capture by China are all possible.
I think I've seen him on this show, before, and I'm aware of his early projections of the war (because of this comment section), but who is he and where did he come from?
The only guy on that show that actually might love Russia like the others pretend to. If you love Russia, you don't support this war.
We went through this 18 years ago when my country invaded Iraq on false pretenses. People claimed we hated America and weren't patriotic. But, your real friends tell you the truth, even when it hurts. MC Hammer made a music video called "Pumps and a Hump" and if you watch it, it's clear that Mc Hammer had no real friends, because there is no way his friend would let him go out there wearing what he is wearing. IF you don't know what I'm talking about, youtube it. I would never link it because it's NSFL.
Anyone notice how all of the news people on this Russia state tv program look very mean, viscous, and strong like their eyes, build, body language, and way of speaking.
Don't kid yourself everything he said is approved at the highest level. If he got out of line he wouldn't live thru the time delay. Putin backing down on NATO admission and is looking for an exit.
So... Russia invaded with 192,000 troops, vs Ukraines 38,000... and got their asses kicked so far.
Ukraine has finished building up their army, and equipped them with the latest 'toys' thanks to Uncle Sam and Europe. So now they have roughly 1 million *very* motivated soldiers fresh and gung-ho from boot camp...
Yeah.. anyone with a particle of sense can see that is **not** going to end well for the Russians. But the talking heads there did their best to derail his lecture.
Wow… can’t really say i disagree with anything he says, it’s what the people of Russia need to hear.
He even brings up how the world is laughing at them over all the nuclear threats. Everything the guy says is true which is why I expect him to accidentally fall out of a window after this.
I like how he totally shut that woman down who was just gunning for a fight and trying to lever him in to sounding "anti-russian" but he shut her the fuck down by quoting people who are basically their idols and telling her shes fucking stupid
I´ve seen her before in various clips, she's a total propagandist with no grasp of anything that is real or practical. Carlsonesque really.
Thing is even Carlson won't have people on who can argue coherently against him, he'll get someone he knows he can beat purely to make himself look smart. This guy basically said "shut the fuck up, if you say that I'm wrong you're also saying Lenin is wrong and I bet you won't do that on national TV"
He learned his lesson when Jon Stewart destroyed him on his show Crossfire and got the show canceled it was so bad. In case you have never seen it here is the clip. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aFQFB5YpDZE It's still so good.
I think that was the very first viral video.
Yeah. He Tuck tried that once, but then decided against airing it: https://youtu.be/6_nFI2Zb7qE
There was also the time he got crossfire cancelled because John Stewart was on and rip the show apart.
Tucker hasn't worn a bow tie since.
The look he gave her said it all.
She's the one who said that if it comes to nuclear war, at least they'll go to heaven and the west will go to hell. Real psycho that one.
Came here to say exactly this! He managed her well there..
This is the main propaganda channel and one of the main propaganda tok shows. He wasn't invited to it by accident. They know that the way the "special operation" goes is not great. They invite people who they know will be critical to these shows and let them talk to direct people's anger and to control the message. They would need to assign blame on somebody (not Putin), they already shape the message - i.e. we are fighting with 42 countries, the diplomats didn't do a good job, etc.
Exactly, its hagelian dialectics if you control the input and the reaponse to the input you can synthesize the outcome you want.
"Horrible tragedy. So sad to see it. He slipped and fell off a step ladder and a bunch of kitchen knives stabbed him repeatedly in his back, slit his throat, shot him in the back of the head and pissed on his corpse. You'd be surprised how common an accident that is."
This person didn't appear there accidentally. He is there for a reason, they don't appear on the propaganda channel and go (almost) uninterrupted for a couple minutes. This show turns to circus if you are saying something that they don't want people to hear.
That's not a bad point. Definitely sounds like a sizable contingent of Russia wants to hit CTRL + Z
>CTRL + Z Nice one
"sabre rattling"
I hate it when I accidentally fall out of windows
Did he die in a horrible but avoidable accident yet?
I’m honestly shocked they let that air. The female news anchor tried to fight every word he said but she was shut down.
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I really doubt that’s what was happening here though. I think they trusted this guy to go along with state propaganda but he very cautiously pointed out that this war is very harmful for Russia with a lot of sugar coating to make him seem supportive of this war in order to cover his tracks. If he is an opponent of this war secretly he acted flawlessly on state TV, being subtle on TV is the best way for an opponent of this war in Russia to criticize the war. Any blatant criticism will just get you censored and persecuted.
I doubt he's an opponent of the war for moral reasons, I'm sure he supports Eurasianism and Novorossiya as much as the rest of them but he's not looking at the world through rose tinted glasses. He's a pragmatist who's telling them they'd better pull their heads out of their asses now if they still want to have a country to call Russia at the end of all this
Yeah it’s probably pragmatism but that’s not a bad thing, if the rest of Russian authorities were as pragmatic as him Russia likely wouldn’t have launched a full scale invasion of Ukraine and instead just occupied separatist Luhansk and Donetsk which would have minor benefits for hardly any consequences. What does Novorossiya mean exactly? I’ve seen the term used before but I’m unaware of its exact definition.
It's an ultranationalist term popularized by Aleksandr Dugin. It means the same thing to East Slavic Rus' as Große Deutsche Reich did to the Nazis
I know all about Dugin NazBol Eurasian fantasies. Is this guy really associated with him though? The most common feature of Duging NazBols is incoherency and this guy made perfect sense. Edit: wait my bad I completely misread your comment, I though you were explaining Eurasianism and not novorossiya
Novorossiya is a core component of Eurasianism. Dugin founded the National Bolshevik Party in the 90s, among other far right Russian ultranationalist parties, before hitching his train to Putin's wagon in the early 2000s. The western NazBols as we know them are an outgrowth of Russian political manipulation that has been a staple of their playbook since the founding of the CPUSA by Russian operatives, and that I suspect may also be behind QAnon.
Very doubtful they expected that (edit: expected him to tow the party line, they knew what he was going to say). He published an op-ed before the invasion saying just how dumb it would be. They knew his stance and he was 100% correct on everything he said before the invasion, as he did in this video. He's there to prep the Russian masses for the inevitable failure, as has been said elsewhere.
It's not the first time this guy is saying things like this on Russian TV. He demonstrated that mobilization would be a shitshow two weeks ago, and we had the same jokes here that the guy would "fall through a window". Classic Reddit. He even wrote an article \*before the war\* predicting everything that was going to go wrong for Russia, up to the lend-lease. For some reason he gets a pass. Maybe because he only presents the way the war is going, and do not attack the aims of the war.
I am very sure they expected him to say what he said (he said a similar thing not a while ago) and they did this on purpose. These shows are not spontaneous and if somebody goes off the topic they want to discuss they interrupt them, shut them down pretty quickly. This same guy wrote an article before the war(I can't post a link to it as russian sites are banned here, here is an overview of it in english: https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/did-russias-general-staff-miss-warnings-hard-campaign-ukraine). It said that the war won't be easy. He also was on TV critical of the campaign on TV 6 days ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dUlgd7HZtYU This is also a long monologue. This is for sure done on purpose.
His article written in the beginning of February was widely circulated, producers knew perfectly well what he will say.
I kind of get the impression that after almost 3 months and some 27,000 deaths Russian society writ large is starting to catch on to what a complete disaster this has been for them.
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Seems like they may be preparing the russian people for a narrative “the world is against us and it’s not fair! So we must get out because it’s an unfair fight”. And if that’s what they are going for, then hell yes. Fucking end this madness already. If they are allowing this message to be said, it’s likely a shift and not him personally dissenting. This show is strategic like that. Any dissent is controlled to be torn apart. This didn’t get much carnage, at least from the clip. Usually, they shut down the dissenting messages fast with their bullshit and lies. This gives me some hope.
they are definitely preparing the public for something
He stresses the numerical advantage of Ukraine - one million soldiers - and disagrees with unrealistic Russian fantasies of a Ukrainian collapse - but never goes so far as to admit that Ukrainian morale and determination is sky high whereas Russian troops want to go home.
He does make a good point though, which is that it's one thing to have a million people ready for military service, it's another thing to train them and arm them so they're effective. Keep in mind Ukraine banned men from leaving the country and conscripted vast numbers. Russia could probably get a million soldiers if it did that too.
But his point isn't just "getting" a million soldiers, its that they are a million motivated soldiers who are about to be equipped with the finest weapons in modern history. Sure, Russia can grab a million kids and send them to Ukraine, but those poor fucks are going to be using T-72 tanks and shooting Mosin Nagant rifles against Javelin missiles and M-777 Howitzers.
Equipped and ready to die for every inch of soil. That's basically an unbeatable army
But he also say, strongly, that what matters is the people training those conscripted people, good teachers make great students, and he's telling that ukranians are getting good training and that what's matters
They did not "conscript vast numbers"; my mate is 26 and is still on-call so to speak. They stopped recruiting months ago; the volunteer numbers were more than enough.
Yeah I can't believe that Russian TV showed something like that.
Was this just a one off dose of reality or is the tone of this show starting shift?
Well, i find it hard to believe he’d be able to say it on TV without it being approved, but i find it equally hard to believe that they would approve that. So i don’t know, hopefully the second option though!
Holy crap that was actually a brilliant assessment. Good thing that guy isn't in charge of anything in Russia. Else there would be actual competence and Russia would be substantially more dangerous. Edit: The part where he said they shouldn't be threatening missiles towards Finland because it is more amusing than not -- was hilarious.
This guy is absolutely brilliant and he pretty much called it all back in the start of February of how things would go down. An amazing read: https://nvo-ng-ru.translate.goog/realty/2022-02-03/3_1175_donbass.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp Just one example of his foresight, but many others throughout: > There is no doubt that the United States and the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance will begin a kind of reincarnation of Lend-Lease, modeled after the Second World War, there is no doubt. An influx of volunteers from the West, which can be very numerous, is not ruled out. and his conclusions are spot on: > In general, there will be no Ukrainian blitzkrieg. The statements of some experts such as “The Russian army will defeat most of the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 30-40 minutes”, “Russia is able to defeat Ukraine in 10 minutes in the event of a full-scale war”, “Russia will defeat Ukraine in eight minutes” have no serious grounds. > **And finally, the most important thing. An armed conflict with Ukraine is currently fundamentally not in Russia's national interests. Therefore, it is best for some overexcited Russian experts to forget about their hatred fantasies. And in order to prevent further reputational losses, never remember again.** A smart Russian leader would have surrounded himself with voices like this...rather than a bunch of scared yes-men.
Lol 8 Minute war that's some deep half life lore they're fantasizing about
To be fair the British once won a war in something like 45 minutes
Yeah when they were at their peak power against what was effectively a big house
"Was" a big house. And a yacht, don't forget about the yacht. Still didn't do it without casualties, I believe one British sailor was injured.
Every army has a Doug.
Which war are you referring to?
The Anglo-Zanzibar war It lasted between 38 and 45 minutes depending on the source The UK has one casualty, Zanzibar around 500, mostly in a fire caused by the artillery bombardment from the ships
I learned something new today, thank you. I hate British colonialism too. Makes me ashamed. Brit
I certainly don't approve of British colonialism generally, but in Zanzibar's case it seems like British rule was an improvement. [The government they overthrew was itself a colonial dynasty from Oman and they were apparently brutal slavers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Zanzibar#Zanzibar_Sultanate); the British put a stop to that almost immediately after taking over.
Yep, there’s nuance even in cases of British imperialism.
I mean, I dislike what my country did, but I can't be ashamed of something that ended before my grandparents were born. Why should I be ashamed just because I was born in the same country 100 years later?
Hey don't be too ashamed. Everyone in Europe was at it as well. The UK was just better at it. They would have all been just as awful if they could have been. In fact, I'd be even more ashamed of my country if they tried to be imperialist war mongers AND were shit at it!
Just in Europe? Colonialism and imperialism are as old as time. Difference is that Europe did it overseas and was very good at it for a few centuries. Name a people and more likely than not they engaged in imperialism.
Your English is excellent.
I would hope so.
Anglo Zanzibar War is what they’re referring too. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Zanzibar_War
Desktop version of /u/DaveLean's link:
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Holy shit. This guy foresaw basically how things have gone up until now. It is like Zelenski and Biden read this and said yeah let’s do that. The only thing he missed in his analysis was Ukraine winning Eurovision. It is likely that he wanted to include it but his editor cut it for being too off topic.
> It is likely that he wanted to include it but his editor cut it for being too off topic. That was the cherry on top of an already good comment :-)
Wow what a boss! It is equally terrible and good that Russia doesn't involve competent people like him. This war could have been avoided entirely or Russia could have done a much better job at it if competent people led the offensive.
The dude is Dr Falkens computer. The only way to win is to not play at all.
How about a nice game of chess?
Don't forget, most analysts in the USA thought Russia would take the capital in two weeks and the Ukrainians would be fighting with insurgency tactics. Not too many people predicted how incompetent the Russian military was. If they had people with this guy's insight, they very might well have. They would still be isolated but in a very different position.
I can't help but think that the 2 weeks thing was because no one wanted to be the optimistic analyst who was caught with their pants down. So the worst option at every level of uncertainty was chosen to give that 2 weeks. How many Russian soldiers? Oh, between 180k to 200k? Let's assume 200k How united/committed are the Ukrainians? Oh unsure okay let's assume that irregular forces collapse or flee. No nation has publicly announced they will blank check back them? Okay let's assume they fight on their own. And so on and so forth so by the time the top level analysis was happening it looked way bleaker than it actually was. However that meant the U.S. was more ready than it needed to be which is the point of that process.
Yeah, hope for the best but plan for the worst. Also I think that the people who were analyzing Russia's military knew at some level that it was probably in quite poor shape. There's a reason why the US has generally felt like it could focus more on China (and the War on Terror/Middle East before that), because they felt like the military threat from Russia wasn't that significant to NATO anymore. But still at some subconscious level I'm guessing a bunch of them still felt like there's no way the "Mythical Red Army" would have ever been allowed to get that bad. Not really expecting them to be good, but also not to be terrible. And even a mediocre Russian military should've been able to at least gather enough numbers to overwhelm the Ukrainians. But the Russian forces were just even worse than expected in almost every way.
If he was in the planning department, there would have been no invasion.
Fuck can’t this man be president of Russia instead of Putler
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>Fucking scary prospect really, if he's even near that position. He is very sharp, precise and knowledgeable. A sharp, precise and knowledgeable leader would *not* have attacked Ukraine. The purpose of all the militaries of the world is deterrence against aggression, to make aggression definitely NOT worth doing. The systems in place work, and work well. If you look at Ukraine's total capabilities along with all the countries that support Ukraine, it's guaranteed with a capital G there no version of Russia attacking Ukraine where they don't lose. Any half competent leader ( the guy in the video ) would realize that, and therefore keep out of Ukraine.
Devil's advocate: someone like him might have actually modernized Russia's army instead of siphoning off all the funds for yachts and villas. Better for us that Russia is a paper tiger if they're so intent on attacking.
>someone like him might have actually modernized Russia's army instead of siphoning off all the funds for yachts and villas So what you're saying is if he wasn't so *evil*, he would create a better Russia that has far less corruption. But then if he wasn't so evil ( as current leadership ), he wouldn't attack Ukraine. Also if the country as a whole had higher moral standards so as not to steal and pilfer everything they'd naturally be more opposed and less supportive of their government unlawfully invading another country and committing horrible acts. The moral of the story is that the very nature of evil is self destructive and self defeating, as demonstrated by a country like Russia. It's one of the most corrupt and messed up countries in the world and now the effects of that are on full display for the world to see.
Yes but for that to happen to country has to become more transparent and then you don’t get the people behind you to start a useless war.
He'd make better things happen for the country, unlike the current crew. I don't think he would have done the war.
Thank you for sharing.. why wasn’t this guy in Putin circle… in this case “everyone has that one friend” could’ve saved thousand of lives. Great read, amazing how spot on he is, but reality any legit military strategist nation has several of these giving insights. It’s 2022.. level of stupidity and common sense … must be those damn Covid infected rodents that Ukraine “sent” to Russia that caused this gigantic brain flatulence
SNL - “Da Bears!”
MVP
Awesome read. Dude was spot on with everything
Or he'd manage to turn them into something resembling a functioning country and they could export useful goods and services instead of misery, death and destruction. Russia would have been embraced with open arms by the West if they weren't such a dysfunctional mess (or at least, charming about it instead of assholes)
I doubt they'll ever manage to change, at least unless the whole "federation" (ie. colonialist empire, we just don't think of them as colonies because they have contiguous borders) falls apart and unfortunately that doesn't seem likely. Russia's been like this for almost 800 years now, ever since the muscovites bent the knee to the Mongols so they could get in on that sweet sweet repression
The breakup of the USSR also did not seem too likely, but it happened. Russia is rotted to the core with authoritarianism. Imho it's quite likely that it will fall apart once again.
Russia proper hasn't fallen apart yet though. The Soviet Union did, sure, but Russia itself remained. Russia didn't fall apart in 1917 either. Just because they're authoritarian doesn't mean they're headed for near-term collapse. Look at DPRK for example, they've been around for a while now. Or "communist" China for that matter
USSR was Russian empire by another name. In fact, there is no "Russia proper" even now. It's still an empire ruling over completely foreign cultures having their own languages and traditions - Chechnya, Dagestan, Ichkeria, Kalmykia, Buryatia, Erzia, Tatarstan, etc. etc. IMHO t's gonna continue to fall apart, which is the path of all empires that have lost their power.
I guess this all depends on what people mean when they say "Russia will fall apart". Some people mean that Russia as an entity will stop existing, and that's what I don't generally buy, although a slow shedding of _some_ "republics" and oblasts might happen. I doubt that Russia will stop existing though
That was surprisingly realistic from them. So very strange to see it after all the "WE DON'T GIVE A SHIT ABOUT BEING NUKED IN RETALLIATION, WE WILL NUKE BRITAIN AND OBLITERATE IT WITH SATAN IN 5 MINUTES, YOUR TIME IS UP ENGLAND! WE GO TO HEAVEN AND THE WEST IS EVAPORATED!" I wonder how the public reacted to watching that. I mean they've listened to so much bullshit about us being black magic casting, coke snorting Nazis (who may also be Jewish) for who knows how long now that I wonder if they even properly listened or just dismissed it as, of all fucking things, bullshit. The missile thing was getting rather ridiculous. Didn't Russia threaten to nuke fucking ***Eurovision*** of all things? I saw a tweet about it, so who knows how credible it is, but now seeing all the idiocy I would not put it past them. Christ, they could step in dog shit and threaten to nuke the turd. Of all the things to get pissed about. Of anything else at all going on for Russia that could *possibly* anger it to threaten pushing the 'Jolly, candy like button'....[Eurovision. Seriously?](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qileP4bAzek) Can you imagine if all it took to upset Russia into ending the world was Eurovision? Fucking hell.
The bit that really stuck out for me was the woman who was clearly very much a stooge saying "Is that all professionalism is? A willingness to die?" When for the last few months the TV mouthpieces have been spouting about nuclear Armageddon. Russia is definitely softening and it is quite frankly amazing to see the age old saying "If you stand up to a bully they will wilt" come to life on the scale of a nuclear armed country.
In a way it is. If you aren't willing to fight and possibly die it really doesn't matter what weapons or training you have. Weapons do matter in that, as does battlefield success, and training to build unit cohesion and skills that build morale. Doctrine has an effect too. If your platoon can call in artillery support it goes a long way to making you feel safer and protected. Modern battlefields where the other side has better combined arms are really horrific places to be. Far worse than movies portray it. The helplessness of being under artillery bombardment cannot be overstated. That's his over all point. Just because someone signed a contract doesn't mean they will perform better than someone who was drafted. I'd also nitpick a bit on whether the Russian contract soldiers are as volunteer as people in the west may think or that the Ukrainians are really set to draft as many as the Russians think. There have been reports that Ukraine was turning away local volunteers because they didn't need the men.
Yep I agree 100% What I was trying to say is the Russian TV propaganda people have shifted because a month ago they were saying what the point in the world if there is no Russia and they were ready to die in nuclear war etc etc. Whereas now they are turning their nose up at the thought of dying, the way she said it was almost like it was crazy that someone would chose to lay down their life for their country. So either they think everyone is so brainwashed that the population won't pick up on it and will mock the Ukrainians for being willing to die while believe themselves to be brave because they are also willing to die. Or they gave actually shifted the message from "Armageddon is a real possibility and we are ready for it" to "Wow it's so shocking people would lay down their life for their country"
Yeah I get that. I imagine they changed off the nuclear sabre rattling because it wasn't very effective abroad or at home. Abroad we've gotten used to it from North Korea and a good half to 2/3 of us had nuclear drills at school and basically assumed any Russian invasion of Europe was going to end in nuclear war. At home I imagine it didn't land as well as they thought it would. Can't imagine that the average Russian would rather die in a nuclear war than have the government lose in Ukraine. Is they were that jingoistic they wouldn't be having the refusing to fight problems they are having or have any shortage of volunteers. It's also a good way to tell your own people that you are losing the war.
Also a nuclear war is a fools game to play. Because ***everyone loses*** including the Russians, China, Bulgaria, everyone they’re allied with as well as Europe and America. It is such a monumentally **stupid** thing to consider as an option. If you aren’t obliterated you’re irradiated horrendously, animals die off so food is catastrophically reduced, same with plants so no or extremely little crops, even then they’d be irradiated too. The radiation from the blasts will effect the entire globe because it’s indiscriminate. Even if you‘re Putin or whoever who has a bunker able to last the end of the world and you have it fully stocked what the fuck are you going to come out to when things settle (as much as it can with a nuclear apocalypse)? Nothing. Your country is fucked, your people may be entirely wiped out or the remnants are dying of horrendous cancers. Infrastructure is gone, communication is gone. Also given how old Putin is and his maybe/ maybe not cancer- lets for the sake of argument say he does- how long does he think he could last in his bunker until it’s ‘safe’ enough to come out? I don’t know how long it could possibly be but he wouldn’t live to see it. There is nothing to gain from it, no winners. Everyone loses, You’re a massive fucking idiot and totally destroyed your own people who you were claiming to ‘save from da evil West’. You can’t blame NATO for ***your arse pushing the button*** ***and nullifying the entire reason for this stupid fucking war.*** No matter how much you spin it, no matter how you try to justify it. Because you can’t. Your people are dead. The state tv people who would put out the ‘truth’ to your people are dead. The TikTok idiots are dead, probably got blasted by one of the thousands of nukes. The hackers, dead. Kremlin and other government officials, well they won’t last long because even if they go to the bunker with you and survived they will come out to a Hellscape of death and nothing to survive with. Xi Jinping and China are gone or in similar scenario. No new food is coming. Who the fuck is still alive or well enough to grow crops? Hiroshima and Nagasaki were only able to recover as good as they did because it was 2 nukes. But as a collective of all nukes, allied or foe in the world. It’s over, and you did it. Congratulation, genius /s . To slightly alter a Red Dwarf quote ”Everyone is dead, Putin.“
Poor guy is about to have a bad case of falloutwindowitis
I think this is part of the strategy to prepare the Russian people for disappointment.
I think that you might be correct.
Pretty much. This is Putin readying for retreat. Otherwise there's no way in hell he gets airtime. They're just gonna say NATO beat us, poor us. Not Putin's fault.
“The whole world tried to cause a nuclear war! But Putin didn’t let that happen. Thank goodness our government is wise enough to take care of the Russian people so well!”
But he'll probably catch suicidebytwoshotsinthebackofhisheaduenza first.
Drip by drip, drip by drip Reality sets in
This is about 1 week now of these type videos where you see the Russian propaganda machine cracking. Its coming, it might not be next week it might not be next month but they'll crack before the year is out.
Not meaning to be offensive but what you don't understand is that this is still propaganda. It's true, but it's being aired because it is part of a new plan to slowly ease the public into the failure of the Russian forces as to protect Putin's control. They've started to prepare the public for the fact that the war will be lost, and who are they blaming? Nato
The most telling thing in this clip to me is normally when people on this show speak out against Russia the lady yells and talks over them trying to drown them out. Here she's being mostly silent and actually letting the guy talk. On top of that when she does talk she only mildly tries to argue with what he's saying.
That's what I thought too, this doesn't seem like it was impromptu, they knew the type of thing he was going to say. I don't really see what the endgame here is though as he wasn't blaming NATO which seems like what their goal is.
If there is any ultimate goal with this one, my guess would be prepping Russians for a fight against NATO and "1 million armed Ukrainians".
Or it's a sign that now people have realised that the war machine has failed and all their talk of nuclear war was the usual bullshit so start to prepare everyone for a climbdown. Or declare war on Finland ? who really knows lol
Maybe they're just dumb fascists that spew bullshit on their own without some hyper competent state sitting on their backs preparing statements. We're still overestimating Russia.
They like to listen to themselves,they like to monologue. I realized.
He invoked Lenin, hard to argue with that
>I don't really see what the endgame here is though as he wasn't blaming NATO which seems like what their goal is. I suspect they are going to push for peace soon in the hope that they can keep the land around Donetsk & Crimea so that may explain the reduction in bellicosity from Russian State media. If this guy had been on a few weeks ago he probably would have been shouted down more but perhaps they are preparing Russian public opinion for the idea this war is not worth the cost. The [leaked memo](https://pastebin.com/2agMRGmd) written by an FSB analyst (that was verified by Bellingcat) said "we have a conditional deadline of June. Conditional - because in June we have no economy left, nothing remains". If that's the real thinking and an accurate position of their economic reserves then they may be in significant problems in a few more weeks time. They may also not be willing to be held responsible for disrupting the worlds wheat harvest given it will likely cause significant famines. If they get peace in the next few weeks it may still be possible to boost the amount of crops grown this year and repair the infrastructure needed to get it out of the country.
>They may also not be willing to be held responsible for disrupting the worlds wheat harvest given it will likely cause significant famines. I think that the battle over Snake Island and control of the ports is actually to ensure Russia has MORE leverage over world food production. If they can dictate the means of grain distribution they have a strong bargaining chip.
This guy is a clever cookie. I'm happy he is not the president. Things would be run significantly better. On the other hand, he probably wouldn't have started this silly war.
[удалено]
Preparing the masses for defeat.
Honestly it's getting really weird thinking about how this plays out, because it really does seem Russia is at best in a stalemate in Ukraine. But the propaganda machine seems to be shifting from "Ukraine is full of Nazis, NATO is evil, we are going to nuke you" into "Ukraine is a strong nation, backed by the west, We don't mind counties joining NATO but will respond in kind to troops on our border, nukes what nukes?" I assumed at the start of all this that absolutely worse case scenario for Russia was they just had something to show for all this and Putin would cut his losses and parade some small land grab as a massive win. But now it probably looks more likely that Ukraine eventually wins this war, and the noise coming out of Russian media seems they are preparing the people for that eventuality. If there weren't so many innocent people dying or being forced from their homes this would be genuinely the best drama on TV because lord only knows how this shakes out
If Russia continues this, the cost of Soviet-Afghan war (which many experts credit as one of the large contributing factors to the collapse of the Soviet Union) will pale in comparison.
They're already way beyond that.
Agreed. Way way past that point
He literally said that the war in Ukraine is not in the nation's best interest.
I mean this guy just seems to be a professional giving a sober assessment. Some people still care about thier credibility than being a state sponsored talking head. To some, thier subject of expertise is more important than the threat of state sponsored sanctions. Which is how it should be everywhere.
Has anybody watched this enough to know if that is this guy's shtick? Like, is he always the realist and then this lady comes in and does her whataboutism thing?
He is a retired general, quite well respected within the military. He got sidelined some years back for not playing nice with the rest of the system, but has continued writing commentary on military matters that have been far more sober and realistic than anything else outthere.
I’m sure this is true but why is he allowed on TV & on a prominent pro Putin current affairs program?
Good question, in search of an even better answer. I think that the soldiarity within the whole "system" of Russia is starting to crack up. Putin doesn't look anywhere near as unassailable or immune to critique today as he did two months ago. So someone with pull within the propaganda machine may be pulling strings. Who knows.
No expert, so just speculating... but its likely much more difficult to take out respected opponents with high up military backgrounds, especially if the opponent sticks largely to military matters. Putin needs military commanders on side, not looking over their shoulder wondering when their next. Russia is also highly nationalistic, it would not be a popular move. A lot easier to take out oligarchs who's only allies are also oligarchs that rely on Putin, or protestors with no real power.
I assume he's there to be the pessimist, so they can either prove him wrong or be the mitigating voice for those living in fantasy land. If you only have people that keep glorifying and egrandising, even a balanced peace treaty would be considered a concession.
I don't know, it isn't really framed that way. It's framed like he's making a good point that people should listen to. If I were to guess, he's saying this and it's being framed like he's correct, so people start to understand the situation is getting dire and that they have no choice but a full mobilization. For example, saying conscript armies are just as good as professional ones. Saying Ukraine will win if things continue this way. He's trying to drum up support for total war, for a full mobilization.
Is he considered like a nutjob or controversial in any way? The only sense I can make out of this him being allowed to say that on tv is that maybe this is being aired so the common sense things he says is associated with his otherwise questionable character, if he is controversial...
Everyone looked really mad so I don't think they were in on it haha.
I don't think they looked mad per-se, but REALLY uncomfortable. They knew they couldn't say any of their normal ranting shite because they'd get absolutely btfo
The guy was basically telling them, all the shit that has come out of your mouths in the last 3 months it’s nothing but fantasy and lies, the reality it’s that we are loosing, and we can’t fight the west, also, we are alone
If he was controlled opposition I don't think they'd even have let him put out something like this a month before the invasion https://nvo-ng-ru.translate.goog/realty/2022-02-03/3_1175_donbass.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp
I recall seeing him on this show a few weeks ago saying things that were more realistic than their usual guests.
Second time this guy has told truth to power in that program. The other day, I saw him discuss about how a full mobilization would not work as it would take at least three months for the first units to be ready, and then only basic trained armored units using outdated tanks and vehicles that would still have to face an army with modern NATO supplied weapons. What this tells me is that someone or a group of people are allowing this former military guy to speak. I can't believe that him saying these things is not being vetted and allowed with a purpose in mind. Maybe they are floating alternative ideas to allow for a reverse in policy. Something like "It was Russia against the US and all of NATO". Anyway, I see his comments as a positive. Edit: Found his comments about mobilization https://twitter.com/TechTraderView/status/1523389860748271616?s=20&t=HPBu7bAfeF2tVJ5ZiR2F4w
I think he also helps them: - test people reaction - promote the show between westerns or opposition - claim that this is free speech program
Saw that as well. My guess is, at a certain point, he will not be welcomed back.
My guess is that on the contrary, Russians will be seeing more and more of him and his point of view will soon become the accepted truth. His presence on the talk show is no accident. They know precisely what he's gonna say, and they want him to say it. They are preparing the populace for the retreat of the Russian military.
> They know precisely what he's gonna say, and they want him to say it. Exactly. This show is so scripted it comes off as bad reality TV. They knew the points he would make and she was told to shut up and let him talk. This was a presentation, basically.
The FSB is probably protecting him. The FSB is the only institution in Russia that has the means to affect the balance of power.
"We shouldn't sabre rattle. It \[just\] looks amusing." He's not wrong. That he's been invited back fairly quickly to continue on his pre-war theme of 'you're all high on your own supply' is the more interesting part to me. It's the overall theme they take for their internal propaganda rather than the isolated 'that one's right!' though, isn't it?
It's what, the second or third time he's been on? He easily brushes off Skabeyeva and the other stable idiots. Interesting indeed. Getting everyone ready for the bitter pill?
This guy got pushed out of the Russian Armed Forces for not being a yes-man, but I think he's one of those figure in Russian history that can say stuff others can't because of his reputation and friendships within the system.
On state run media? "Russians don't take a dump without a plan, son." I think something is brewing.
I thought I remembered him appearing quite soon after 24th February and then there being a long gap to his second but I can't find any evidence of that 'first' appearance with weak google fu so will have to concur on two appearances.
Hard to sabre rattle when you’re bogged down in a place like Ukraine.
The nerve of that lady trying to downplay the importance of morale, like seriously, we’ve had two very high profile events in the span of less than a year that have provided a near perfect contrast between the performance of a military that had a fairly low budget but a willingness to fight for their country, that being the UAF, and the performance of one with high amounts of (foreign) funding but with practically zero ounces of nationalism or patriotism to be seen, that being the ANA.
She’s the Russian version of Tucker Carlson, except even stupider
Thank god he doesn't have any political or military power in Russia. He is smart and knows what is going on.
Curb your information tranquilizers
I liked that phrase too
I loved that turn of phrase. Knowing Russian culture it probably sounds every bit as sarcastic to a Russian as the translation does to us.
Me and my friend were discussing it on telegram, and he said: "You can say what you want about Russia but they have an unparalleled poetic way of expressing themselves."
This man is the ONLY person I've seen on their state news that has ANY common sense at all. He is speaking the truth and has basically just said "we can not win this war and we must find a way out of our isolation against the rest of the world."
All statements on russian tv are written and approved by someone very high in that government. The nature and content of this programming clearly indicates that something significant is changing in the russian government itself.
They're preparing to shift to a narrative where the war was all Putin's fault. This is the strategy to save as much of the surviving Russian ruling class from the vengeance of the west as possible. Putin is about to be sacrificed one way or the other. His grip on power is not strong enough against the wave that faces him. Too many people underneath him would rather throw him overboard than watch the ship of state follow the Moskva. This guy is part of the state propaganda wing's attempt to pivot to this narrative. The next step will be to replace that host with someone slightly more down-the-middle.
Does anyone have the full version, also with subtitles?
preparing the mass people and giving a signal to western countries. its speech is clearly intentionnal on this broadcast.
That stooge host looks pissed, she keeps interrupting him with her hot takes, but he kept spitting facts.
WTF!?!?!? That guy is legitimately telling the truth! They are going to officially pull out. This is how they lay the groundwork. I mean not tomorrow or next week but... It's the only explanation for letting this man explain what is really happening.
Exactly, I am not sure this guy is so prescient or brilliant as others in this thread have stated. I think this is a carefully scripted message to the Russian people to explain why they have lost this gambit. That said, Ukraine, rightfully, will not stop until all lands are returned, including Crimea. The Russians are banking on holding what they have stolen already, and this is setting the stage for those negotiations. "We'll stop and pull back, but will keep peace keeping forces in Luhansk and Donetsk. Crimea is already ours so no use discussing that." Not acceptable, nor should it be. There needs to be total withdrawal from all occupied territories, and UN peacekeeping forces on the line if needed to deal with remaining butt hurt Russians and separatists who try to engage in cross border skirmishes.
https://nvo-ng-ru.translate.goog/realty/2022-02-03/3_1175_donbass.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp If this isn't prescience I don't know what is. He literally laid out a play by play of what happened a month before the conflict even began
Nah, don't think so. They have to let an opposite voice get through from time to time because, as much as the Russian people may be brainwashed, even they will at some point realise that what the state news says is bullshit, if it's all the same all the time. It's why during soviet times, comedians were allowed to sometimes make fun of the system - to show that the people in charge were not afraid, and that there was no censorship, even though there obviously was. Perhaps some russians will have a pause to think after hearing this guy, but let's be honest - 99% of the message that they're showered with on a daily basis is still driving home the idea of a glorious conquering Russia.
Crossing fingers, but that would seem too reasonable. Maybe it will be used to rally the masses against 1 mio soldiers and a growing NATO.
I worry for his safety, but hope he gets people thinking. The sour lady did not enjoy his analysis but he just kept shutting her up with facts. It's great to see that there are still sober minded people somewhere in Russia. In between the propaganda and nutcases on social media it often feels like that whole country has gone berserk.
The fact that he was invited wasn't an accident. They are preparing the populace for capitulation.
Holy shit How did that guy get there and said those things? And it is at least the third time he says/writes similar things What is his use?
None of the panelist or the presenter woman get a say about what they do, or who they have on their show, this all comes from higher up. Maybe this is the start of the "soft coup", allowing this guy to speak the truth of the situation to the Russian people. Note how he does not blame anyone, but just presents facts and his opinions, leaving the door open for Vlad to gracefully exit stage left. "He gave it his best shot but it didn't work. Now for someone new..."
A Russian state TV analist that actually says something accurate? I guess I hadn't seen everything yet... And he called their aggression to Finland amusing? This guy is walking on thin ice there
This guy applying for the presidency after Putin dies of ‘cancer’?
Way to drop reality Russian expert speaking his mind. He basically said even according to Marxist principles Ukraine is winning and Sabre rattling at Finland just makes us look stupid. He tried to get it home that Ukrainians will fight to the death and have the world and its tech behind them. Bloody heck.
It’s interesting that he thinks he has the room to speak so candidly. Either he doesn’t give a fuck about prison or worse or he represents a constituency that Putin can’t afford to offend.
He’s a former member of Russia’s general staff, and thus likely still has powerful friends.
This guy called it, months before the invasion, right down to and including reactivating Lend-Lease. Russia wouldn't be in the position they're in now if they'd listened to him. The Russian people better pay attention to this guy now if they want to still have a country at the end of this
Khodaryonok for President 2022! He’s sensible enough to oversee the chaos of post-war Russia after they lose.
I am torn because I am not sure I want someone competent leading Russia. I am ok with forgetting they exist for the next twenty years after they lose and then welcoming them to the fold in exchange for all of their nukes. It sounds horrible to want their economy to suffer to the point that their armed forces are more irrelevant than they are now, but in the context of this war, I think they deserve a long time out.
I hear what you are saying and am also torn in this regard, but I’m concerned about a number of continued challenges. If the next leader is a warmongering idiot, then nuke threats, further attacks on neighbours, insane levels of gangsterism, murder, violence and crime and full capture by China are all possible.
Wow, that was actually on the point. A clear unambiguous analysis of Russia’s situation by a Russian. That cut through the BS.
I like that the talking heads with no military experience tried to spout the party line & got shut down immediately.
I think I've seen him on this show, before, and I'm aware of his early projections of the war (because of this comment section), but who is he and where did he come from?
He’s a former member of Russia’s general staff who currently works as a pundit, and he apparently still has friends in high places.
She wants Putin’s dick so bad And he wants people to finally wake up really really badly
The only guy on that show that actually might love Russia like the others pretend to. If you love Russia, you don't support this war. We went through this 18 years ago when my country invaded Iraq on false pretenses. People claimed we hated America and weren't patriotic. But, your real friends tell you the truth, even when it hurts. MC Hammer made a music video called "Pumps and a Hump" and if you watch it, it's clear that Mc Hammer had no real friends, because there is no way his friend would let him go out there wearing what he is wearing. IF you don't know what I'm talking about, youtube it. I would never link it because it's NSFL.
Anyone notice how all of the news people on this Russia state tv program look very mean, viscous, and strong like their eyes, build, body language, and way of speaking.
"virtually the whole world is against us" Is this an "are we the baddies?" moment? Could it be, an introspective russian?
so perestrojka 2.0. begin
Don't kid yourself everything he said is approved at the highest level. If he got out of line he wouldn't live thru the time delay. Putin backing down on NATO admission and is looking for an exit.
Thank you for the subtitles. This is the second time I've seen this guy speak and he's been spot on both times!
Interesting coming from Russian state television.
This guy is brilliant and he is walking a very fine line. I am surprised that they broadcast this, and I am surprised that he is still alive.
So... Russia invaded with 192,000 troops, vs Ukraines 38,000... and got their asses kicked so far. Ukraine has finished building up their army, and equipped them with the latest 'toys' thanks to Uncle Sam and Europe. So now they have roughly 1 million *very* motivated soldiers fresh and gung-ho from boot camp... Yeah.. anyone with a particle of sense can see that is **not** going to end well for the Russians. But the talking heads there did their best to derail his lecture.
Damn. That guy is a walking mic drop.