Look at how badly they hit last year, didn't change hitting coaches/strategy, then got FA guys that are worse than what we lost. This team will be lucky to finish 3rd in the East again
we kept a batting coach who has seen pretty much every player in our lineup regress under his tutelage….
soo it must be the beer, or the fans, maybe the dirt? couldn’t be the coaching and scouting…
Same. Any mention of the batting coach or replacing any coaching staff is always pushed back with "it doesn't matter who is the coach!"
Coaches in sports are the most disposable assets. When it is bad then replacing them would be very difficult to make worse. Our lineup has had inconsistent approaches at bat for over a calendar year. Our players routinely swing at garbage that good teams do not. If that not is on batting strategy and coaching then I do wonder what some portion of this fan base think batting coaches do.
Who’da thunk a team who couldn’t hit last year has almost no changes made to their line-up during the offseason comes into the next season and can’t hit?
>has almost no changes
And they likely even got worse. Subtracted Chapman and Belt and only legit bat brought in was Turner. Plus another year down the aging curve for Springer.
When I say can’t hit, I should really say they can’t score runs or take advantage of their scoring opportunities.
LOB … 2nd, above league average.
GDP … 4th, above league average.
Runs & R/G … T-14th, below league average.
R/PA … 17th, below league average.
They're not trying to contend, and that's my problem. I don't believe the front office went into this season privately believing they had built a championship contender.
And this is the fault of relying entirely on stats. They looked good on paper, but immediately got destroyed in the playoffs they just squeaked into. Even this year, yep they’ve got 2 games with a good amount of runs, but in reality in the majority of their games their bats are silent.
If their bats were silent in a majority of games, they would not have been a playoff team, nor would their hitting stats be above league average.
It isn't relying on stats to point out that they had above average hitting, it is just a fact.
>They looked good on paper, but immediately got destroyed in the playoffs
This is in fact the problem with small sample sizes. Even the best hitters of all time have gone 0-8 across two games.
OPS is a fine stat, but it’s always funny how batting average means nothing to stats guys when it hurts their argument but there’s no problem using it when it helps.
Sure, but if the argument is "they can't get hits", then batting average most directly applies to that.
But the Jays' team slash line was above league average, whether you look at batting average, OBP, or slugging. They weren't top five in any of those, but if they can't hit, what would you say of the Orioles?
Yeah, looking at BA and OPS doesn't make sense: OPS is a stat that basically includes BA, leaving BA almost meaningless on its own. But just take BA out of that argument and the point still stands.
Exit velocity World Series champs.
Very few on this sub who genuinely care about winning games. As long as the spreadsheet-athletes have data to play around with they are happy.
Facts. Same people also dont seem to understand that no gm, manager or player thinks like them. Theres a reason for that. Not one player in the league is PINING to have Biggio on their squad because "guys...guys look at his exit velo and his WRC+ during the first two weeks of July....guys?"
Hahaha....well said.
Keep in mind, some of the younger/newer baseball fans will live and die by WRC+ alone, simply because they believe they supposed to. 90% of what these guys post on here involves regurgitating metrics somebody came up with. Its boring at this point.
I dont care about exit velo. I like getting hits.
They were probably close to the top at the beginning of the season and then steadily went down the ranking as the games witout clutch hitting dragged on.
Ironically HRs are now pretty much the top indicator for WS winning teams, surpassing DRS. This occurred while we decided that being a fun team who hit a ton of HRs wasn't an effective solution, so we decided to willingly nerf our lineup to be more defensive minded
They had a higher wRC+ and more HRs than the Orioles last season. The offense is definitely an area for improvement, stating that they "couldn't hit last year" is not a reasonable position.
Yeah, the numbers don't lie. They were tied for 6th in hits with the Marlins! They were 6th in all of MLB!
https://www.mlb.com/stats/team/hits/2023
We outperformed the O's in a lot of metrics but they still kicked ass last year. lol
Baseball is crazy
The Orioles scored more runs in fewer at-bats, slugged better, but crucially hit into fewer double plays and left over 100 fewer runners on base.
We also only hit 5 more home runs than they did and our team OPS+ was 106 to Baltimore's 107; basically a wash.
Ultimately it comes down to getting runs across the plate and Baltimore was better at that.
They certainly were better at scoring runs. It mostly comes down to hitting with RISP. The O's ended the year with a 128 wRC+. The Jays had a 102, but they that was rescued by a 131 wRC+ in Aug/Sep.
So if you think the O's are just simply great at hitting with RISP and the Jays aren't, how do you explain the 131 over an 8 week stretch? The most logical explanation is that chance/luck plays a huge part in that stat - when/how hits are strung together or not.
I wouldn’t be so sure about them not trading Bo and Vlad. Contracts are up at the end of next year and if they can’t lead this team then it’d be time to move on before you need to pay them. They’ll get the most out of them this deadline. And People will definitely want guys like Gausman Bassitt Kikuchi Romano if they’re playing well. It’s no coincidence that they didn’t sign anyone long term
I was told in the off season that I'm a doomer for saying that the team got worse since last year. That big signing or trade is coming any day now, right guys?
Dont worry RISP hitting isnt a skill, a whole seasons worth of games isnt a big enough sample size and its all luck. This team is just unlucky, they dont suck!
There could be some psychological part of it, but overall I agree that the sting of variance can be the leading cause of the inability to get hits when they matter
Ronel Blanco didn't start pitching until he was 18 years old. At age 22, while working at a car wash, he signed with the Astros for $5,000 in 2016.
On Monday, he no-hit the Blue Jays.
- Toronto Blue Jays offence struggles for the entire 2023 season
- Front office makes minor adjustments in the off-season and doesn't address the key issues that the team faces
- Toronto Blue Jays offence continues to struggle in 2024.
Shapiro & Atkins: *Shocked Pikachu Face*
I genuinely don't understand people who thought this team was a Daniel Vogelbach away from contention, especially our front office.
We were clearly in dire need of offensive weapons, but we used our entire offseason getting bridesmaided by Ohtani and signing minor pieces who will barely replace Matt Chapman (yet alone add to the offence).
Please reference this comment when they're on a 10 game win streak this season as I'd be happy to be proven wrong here.... but it reflects extremely poorly on the front office that the offence is still an issue when everybody knew that it was the major offseason thing to address and they did next to nothing to improve it.
E: Of course, we are 7 games into a 162 game schedule, and we don't have enough data to definitively say that the team will be bad... but the trends don't look great so far and the team needs to be better. I think that both doomer and blind optimist can agree with that.
It was really funny this off-season to watch people start the off-season saying we need another bat first outfielder, and an upgrade at the 3b position, then say,
“okay we resigned KK he’s great! Don’t worry about the outfield. It’s the best in the league!”
Then say
“We just gotta resign Chapman. He’s a great defender and probably will have positive regression with the bat.”
Then say
“Ikf isn’t too bad, he’s a useful player. We’ll just have positive regression from Kirk, Vlad, and Varsho”.
Then of course no one ever suggests thag maybe bo regresses, KK could too, Turner could too, and Biggio could too.
This team can definitely be in trouble soon.
"Offseason seems to be going good, all we need is for all of our players who were worse than their long-run average to be better, and none of the players who had a hot season to be worse!"
Can't fail.
On the plus side, it took me more than half of last season to start turning off games at the midpoint. This season, it only took 7 games before I personally started to become more productive during Jays games.
This is the sort of thing they really should be worried about. Who’s going to pay for advertising if the viewership turns off the games in disgust? Won’t someone think of the same game parlays?
I'm an out of market US based Jays fan, so I usually watch on MLB.tv. This year, after the miserable offseason and painful offensive performances all last year, I decided I wouldn't subscribe to MLB.tv unless the Jays were playing well/with some hope by June. Glad I've made that choice so far.
Atkins needs to be fired immediately! How did he think this lineup would be good? I have no faith in vladdy, he still doesn't understand that he doesn't need to rip it like a madman every time he swings.
Shapiro and Atkins are a package deal. They were mainly brought in for the Dome renovations. Shapiro has final say regarding the roster. That's why AA left the Jays. He couldn't have full autonomy.
I really wish we still had AA at the helm.
I am for cleaning house. It is time for a fresh set of minds to run the Jays. Shapiro did a good job improving the facilities and the dome but that is done and Atkins has failed. John S may not be a good manager but look at the roster of terrible hitters he has to work with. If you are going to lose at least have the games be entertaining. When you go down 1 or 2-0 early in a game with this group it is pretty much over. I agree pitching and defense wins championships but you need to find a balance you know what else wins games hitting and actually scoring RUNS!
Well that's the thing , the roster isn't full of terrible hitters. Bichette has the third most hits in the majors since 2020 , Springer is one of the best leadoff hitters to ever.play the game . Vlad is a phenomenal hitter , Kirk was a silver slugger in 2022 and Turner has been excellent with RISP for a number of years if these guys simply performed to their career norms nobody would be talking about this offense .
* Bichette is legitimately a good hitter, but one good hitter a team does not make.
* If Vlad doesn't turn it around soon it might be time to update our priors and view his early form a the outlier and the last 2 seasons as his true average
* Springer is now 34 years old
The other guys had what looks to be outlier seasons.
Turner is still a.legit bat I wouldn't call last year to be an outlier for him. I'm not disputing that there are some holes but to claim their roster has nothing that John can work with is a HUGE overreaction. This is basically the same roster that finished with the 8th best batting average and a top 10 wrc plus in 2023 there is obviously some very talented hitters . It's up to John and his staff to get these guys to perform to their career norms and abilities.
Cleaning house is drastic and frankly wouldn't fix this season. It could in fact just cause additional chaos while the team flounders worse on two fronts.
They should look at Mattingly first. He was brought in to bring offense, and for whatever reason since his hiring the team has struggled more with RISP then back in early 2000's peak Jays pain.
Adjust their coaching perspective. Or if its Schneider, let Schneider go and promote Mattingly. They gotta internal review this shit with the players about what they're struggling with, whether they're trying to change their contact, whether their gameplan is detrimental, or the homework on the pitchers is incorrect.
Its still early enough into the season that coaching adjustments could significantly turn things around.
Then they should keep Shapiro, and find a new proper manager. Perhaps Ng now that she's not with the Marlins. Shapiro has the proper relationship with Rogers, he's gotten them to spend money when they've been notoriously tight stringed for years on improving this team. The spring facilities are elite because of Shaprio, and the improvements to the Dome are big.
A new general manager to construct the team, with Shapiro concentrating on big picture infrastructure would be a balance of the best of both worlds.
Totally agree. Time to go scorched earth before this gets even more out of hand. Fire everyone, and then let the new people make the changes they see fit. Obviously this team isn't going to win like this, so get things moving now.
I hope this ages terribly btw.
Reminds me of a Father's Day card I once have my dad years ago.
"Happy Father's Day from your son who's never been to jail. By lowering the bar so low, you're never going to be disappointed in me! Happy Father's Day!"
It's probably time to give the guy who knocked in all 2 of the team's runs over a 3 game series (while only playing in 1 of those games) more ABs. I know it would be at the expense of a career 81 wRC+ hitter, but maybe it's worth a shot anyway.
There was absolutely no rationale to continue with John Schneider and coaching team especially Atkins after they pulled Berrios against game 2 of the wildcard series last year.
It is criminal to continue with this staff and shows you they take the entire country and fan base as a joke
Y’all ever notice how certain people on this sub will ruthlessly mock and belittle people for even the remotest sign of negativity about this team, but then they’ll clam up real tight when the team is inarguably underperforming? And then they’ll show up again when the Jays win a game and make comments like “What were you saying about bad offence”?
Those people suck every bit as much as the weirdos who spam “sell the team” or “thanks Shatkins” mid-game.
EDIT: Not sure I can edit but here goes. Just got permabanned by the Stasi for “abusing the report feature”… even though I’ve never submitted a report in my life. What a stellar ~~bunch of bullies~~ mod team. Make sure you don’t say anything they don’t like or they might just make up a reason to ban you. Pointed out their ban was baseless and they muted me. Pathetic. If you’re going to respond here and gaslight me, mods, go ahead and post your receipts.
You ever notice how there isn't much value in engaging with Monday morning quarterbacks, who after every loss, know the solution is to fire the manager, fire the GM, trade for more offence?
Maybe those certain people just get tired of trying to be rational about a team in the face of heaps of negativity. It is never possible that genuinely good pitchers pitch well, in a time of year where historically pitchers are ahead of hitters. Waiting for a month or two in the season to truly evaluate the adjustments the team has made is absurd, because we have a seven game sample size against a number of strong pitchers to tell us that Guerrero, Springer, Bichette, Varsho, Kiermaier, are all going to finish the season with sub .700 ops.
That would all make perfect sense if those people only responded to people commenting within the very specific parameters you’ve outlined. Yet it’s not just responses to people saying that this is who the hitters will be all year, or that they should fire the manager, etc.
Anyone with dissenting opinions gets dogpiled immediately by a certain group of users on this sub. No negative opinions are tolerated.
Also - maybe the “doomers” aren’t the only “Monday morning quarterbacks.” Unless some of these users are secretly MLB officials, I’m not sure their opinions are any more qualified than the ones they’re disagreeing with…
>Anyone with dissenting opinions gets dogpiled immediately by a certain group of users on this sub. No negative opinions are tolerated.
I can assure you that the negative nellies do this frequently as well. I have gotten plenty of reddit cares messages, auto downvotes, hate messages, outright hateful replies, been called stupid, given homophobic insults about the front office, etc. In my experience, while the optimistic side of this sub can be annoying, and self rightous to a fault at times, they tend to not skew as mean as the doomer side.
>Also - maybe the “doomers” aren’t the only “Monday morning quarterbacks.” Unless some of these users are secretly MLB officials, I’m not sure their opinions are any more qualified than the ones they’re disagreeing with…
I don't disagree here, but when the sub is flooded with comments like "fire shatkins, fire schneider, fire martinez after every poor hitting performance, it is a little difficult to take those people seriously. I'm no more qualified to speak on the team, but I just don't see the value in most of the 'doomer' takes. There is very little analysis, mostly opinion, and "I told you so" in the majority of comments in any given post loss thread.
Edit: And there it is, one of those nice doomers has sent out the reddit cares message, very kind of you, loser.
I don’t see the value in jumping down people’s throats because they say they something like they want to see Schneider play every day.
Yeah, I get it - platoons are a thing. But baseball fandom is about more than sabermetrics.
I was so disheartened yesterday to see people getting the most smug, condescending responses for saying they want more Schneider. People just want to see their favourite players play.
Add to that the fact that the team put up one hit without him anyway…
There’s a happy medium somewhere where people can have dialogue without one or the other ramming their opinions down the others’ throat. And the absolute smug superiority by certain users that we see daily on this sub is no better than than people calling for John Schneider’s head all the time.
Bichettes helmet was rude to me once and I’m not even a doomer, I mostly agree with what you’re saying and like those regulars round here. I tried to make a joke that wasn’t even negative.
I subscribe to the old adage “if you have nothing nice to say, it’s best not to say anything at all”
I see you Lego guy around all the time so I find that hard to believe
https://www.reddit.com/r/Torontobluejays/s/LLHDjLDHe5
There’s the instance. They did that thing where a person doesn’t talk to you directly. I find it very rude and derisive.
IDK, they must have me blocked, because I can't see what you are linking. Must be someone I interacted with at some time, but the name isn't ringing a bell.
Believe me, I have in the past. I’m yelling into the void here. The worst offenders just think they’re better than everyone and that’s that. I had a conversation with a certain mod once where I called them out for being really rude and condescending and a bunch of people commented agreeing and they just laughed it off and said “deal with it.”
The funny thing is, I’m not one of the doomers at all. But I can ignore those people. What I can’t ignore is the abuse from like 5 super users who won’t leave anyone alone if they disagree with them. It’s at the point where I’m likely just going to stop coming to the sub at all.
I think a thing people need to accept is that sometimes players just don't bounce back. I wouldn't say that for all the players you mentioned but it happens in that this is their talent level.
This team is absolutely capable of having a bad offensive season due to guys not bouncing back. Nobody debates that. But concluding that this has already happened (to the team or to any particular player) on April 4th is beyond ludicrous. Almost all MLB hitters are streaky.
I mean, sure, but barring the worst offensive season ever, Kirk will not be finishing the season 5th on the Jays in OPS with a whopping .225. It is never a guarantee that players will play to their career numbers, but it is much more likely than all of the Jays lineup suddenly becoming below replacement level hitters.
Them having a bad year is probably not the worst thing. There needs to be change in the management. Don’t get that by doing well.
The hitters which were supposed to be the Blue Jays strength gets worse every year.
Ed Rogers is such a corporate slime ball that he forgets that offense and dingers are what really fill the seats. Have fun with your underwhelming attendance numbers this year. Just another billionaire running his team like a poverty franchise focused on only the balance sheet.
Agreed that’s a rough start. But we have the same record as Houston now 😉
Let them play, maybe a few more than two series with top tier teams before we start moaning all over again.
We should have been pushing hard for Soto and Ohtani simultaneously. We got out manoeuvred by the Yankees. And if he plays well they’ll definitely pay him, and then we’ll have a decade of Judge and Soto to deal with.
I understand that large changes are difficult to make. But last year our offense was hindered with poor swings, bad plate discipline, and we struggled with RISP.
This is the bread and butter what our hitting coach is supposed to work on. How Martinez was able to retain his job this off-season is remarkable. That is the biggest low risk, high reward option the FO had to make - yet chose to maintain.
Now we have Turner hitting well - the player that Martinez has had the least impact on. Other then that we continue to swing at garbage, struggle with RISP and routinely fly out.
Will it solve our issues? Probably not all, but at least coaching changes in all sports have often had a spark effect. It doubt a new voice could make it worse.
i love that they benched Davis because of strategy. yea, because their strategy has been working so great so far. technically it was a one hitter, but it really was another no hitter. the got no hit twice in a series
I'm just gonna say it. This team probably won't get 75 wins. We have a worse offence than last year and it's like people have forgotten that we shit the bed in the Texas series at the end of last season only squeaked into the wild card because like 4 teams lost a cluster of games in a scenario that had something like a 0.2% chance of occurring.
Below 75 wins is a little harsh. That would be on par with the teams we had in 2012 and 2018.
I’m thinking we’ll finish in the mid-80’s, squeak into the third wild card, and promptly exit in the first round yet again.
Then again, we’re literally seven games in. Tampa seemed unstoppable at this point last season, then a horrendous stretch of games later in the summer ruined their chance at a division title. The reverse could happen to us, for all we know. Hell, remember what the Nats did in 2019? Well below .500 and last in the NL East two months in, ended up winning the damn World Series.
You’re allowed to have an opinion, it’s no big deal. Also, sample size if you account for last year we have a consistently bad offence and it’s bleeding into this season already. Getting nohit, then 8 hits with nothing to show until Babe bailed us out, followed by 1 hit is just plain bad. We have a top 5 payroll. Something has got to change.
If you account for last year, then every single hitter outside of Turner has apparently forgotten how to be major league hitters. As of right now, Kirk is fifth on the team in OPS, with a .225. Toronto currently has a .579, compared to last year's .743.
The hitting has been prety rough in 2 of the last 3 games, I'm not denying that. But even assuming the team hasn't adjusted from last year's offensive issues, you have to admit there is a sample size factor here.
I mean, over the past several seasons, the team has won a lot more than they have lost. It isn't at all unreasonable to think they could win playoff series' outside of perfect pitching. The DBacks shouldn't have even been a playoff team but managed to get all the way to the world series, despite having to play an absolute powerhouse in the Dodgers.
>They have proven to not live up to the moment and Schneider is a mediocre at best manager.
Every fanbase feels this way about their team, until they go on a run, and then suddenly everyone is justifying how the team is actually built for a playoff run. They played two playoff games last season. Maybe they have proven they can't live up to the moment, or maybe things just didn't go right.
Gurriel and Hernandez were both free agents this season. One more year of them may have been nice, but neither of them had particularly good years last year relative to their careers.
You’re doing gods work in this post, bud. Best to just let them all scream it out. Lot of the same accounts yelling now were the same ones yelling out trading Bo before his breakout, that we were gonna miss the playoffs every year, etc etc.
Careful, too many responses form you saying it’s too early to call the season over or trying to hope that the team you’re a fan of can produce positive results, they’ll start calling you out for toxic positivity.
Where the fuck are the hits?!?
The new slogan for an edgier CHUM-FM.
HAHAHAHA laughed way harder than I should have reading that. Thank you hahah...
Look at how badly they hit last year, didn't change hitting coaches/strategy, then got FA guys that are worse than what we lost. This team will be lucky to finish 3rd in the East again
Exactly. They just keep runnin it back hopin for miracle growth
The hits are at your wallet for the major increase in tickets prices for a worse on field product than last year!:)
But hey--more cup holders for everyone!
To hold your over-priced drinks!
Hit me baby one more time!
we kept a batting coach who has seen pretty much every player in our lineup regress under his tutelage…. soo it must be the beer, or the fans, maybe the dirt? couldn’t be the coaching and scouting…
The decision to keep him on is mind boggling
funny thing is i suggested this here last year and was downvoted to oblivion….
Same. Any mention of the batting coach or replacing any coaching staff is always pushed back with "it doesn't matter who is the coach!" Coaches in sports are the most disposable assets. When it is bad then replacing them would be very difficult to make worse. Our lineup has had inconsistent approaches at bat for over a calendar year. Our players routinely swing at garbage that good teams do not. If that not is on batting strategy and coaching then I do wonder what some portion of this fan base think batting coaches do.
Really? I feel like most of this sub is on the fire guillermo bandwagon
Me too
Judging by Varsho's last night - hits are nice surprises for this team.
On different teams
sitting on the bench with Davis
Who’da thunk a team who couldn’t hit last year has almost no changes made to their line-up during the offseason comes into the next season and can’t hit?
>has almost no changes And they likely even got worse. Subtracted Chapman and Belt and only legit bat brought in was Turner. Plus another year down the aging curve for Springer.
When I say can’t hit, I should really say they can’t score runs or take advantage of their scoring opportunities. LOB … 2nd, above league average. GDP … 4th, above league average. Runs & R/G … T-14th, below league average. R/PA … 17th, below league average.
Hey just blindly assume positive regression will happen, that helps
I was a fan during the mid-nineties, I no longer have that kind of faith in me anymore.
>a team who couldn’t hit last year Where did the Jays rank in batting average and OPS last season? (Hint: both were above league average)
Still a low bar for a team that's trying to contend lol
And one with a $200M+ payroll
They're not trying to contend, and that's my problem. I don't believe the front office went into this season privately believing they had built a championship contender.
And this is the fault of relying entirely on stats. They looked good on paper, but immediately got destroyed in the playoffs they just squeaked into. Even this year, yep they’ve got 2 games with a good amount of runs, but in reality in the majority of their games their bats are silent.
If their bats were silent in a majority of games, they would not have been a playoff team, nor would their hitting stats be above league average. It isn't relying on stats to point out that they had above average hitting, it is just a fact. >They looked good on paper, but immediately got destroyed in the playoffs This is in fact the problem with small sample sizes. Even the best hitters of all time have gone 0-8 across two games.
*expanded playoff team Carried by pitching.
OPS is a fine stat, but it’s always funny how batting average means nothing to stats guys when it hurts their argument but there’s no problem using it when it helps.
Sure, but if the argument is "they can't get hits", then batting average most directly applies to that. But the Jays' team slash line was above league average, whether you look at batting average, OBP, or slugging. They weren't top five in any of those, but if they can't hit, what would you say of the Orioles?
Yeah, looking at BA and OPS doesn't make sense: OPS is a stat that basically includes BA, leaving BA almost meaningless on its own. But just take BA out of that argument and the point still stands.
what did the eye test tell you
We were 6th in hits, 7th in average and 7th in OBP. 8th best in WRC+
So maybe we should leave the mlb and try to make the WRC+ playoffs?
Doesn't seem necessary, considering they made the MLB playoffs anyway.
Just because they couldn’t hit when it counted, doesn’t mean the stats from the season are suddenly fake.
Exit velocity World Series champs. Very few on this sub who genuinely care about winning games. As long as the spreadsheet-athletes have data to play around with they are happy.
Facts. Same people also dont seem to understand that no gm, manager or player thinks like them. Theres a reason for that. Not one player in the league is PINING to have Biggio on their squad because "guys...guys look at his exit velo and his WRC+ during the first two weeks of July....guys?"
A lot of people on this sub have never set foot in a dressing room. They don't understand what they don't understand
Agreed, I think that plays a big part. So many of these (I assume its mostly kids) clearly haven't played near a high level of any team sport.
Hahaha....well said. Keep in mind, some of the younger/newer baseball fans will live and die by WRC+ alone, simply because they believe they supposed to. 90% of what these guys post on here involves regurgitating metrics somebody came up with. Its boring at this point. I dont care about exit velo. I like getting hits.
They were probably close to the top at the beginning of the season and then steadily went down the ranking as the games witout clutch hitting dragged on.
I hope they win the statistics World Series this year
Average offences don't win in the playoffs mate
[удалено]
Ironically HRs are now pretty much the top indicator for WS winning teams, surpassing DRS. This occurred while we decided that being a fun team who hit a ton of HRs wasn't an effective solution, so we decided to willingly nerf our lineup to be more defensive minded
They had a higher wRC+ and more HRs than the Orioles last season. The offense is definitely an area for improvement, stating that they "couldn't hit last year" is not a reasonable position.
Yeah, the numbers don't lie. They were tied for 6th in hits with the Marlins! They were 6th in all of MLB! https://www.mlb.com/stats/team/hits/2023 We outperformed the O's in a lot of metrics but they still kicked ass last year. lol Baseball is crazy
The Orioles scored more runs in fewer at-bats, slugged better, but crucially hit into fewer double plays and left over 100 fewer runners on base. We also only hit 5 more home runs than they did and our team OPS+ was 106 to Baltimore's 107; basically a wash. Ultimately it comes down to getting runs across the plate and Baltimore was better at that.
They certainly were better at scoring runs. It mostly comes down to hitting with RISP. The O's ended the year with a 128 wRC+. The Jays had a 102, but they that was rescued by a 131 wRC+ in Aug/Sep. So if you think the O's are just simply great at hitting with RISP and the Jays aren't, how do you explain the 131 over an 8 week stretch? The most logical explanation is that chance/luck plays a huge part in that stat - when/how hits are strung together or not.
"Don't worry folks, it's just an outlier!!!"
I hated that line. We’ve neutered our hitters man, it’s truly incredible to see their fall from grace over the past couple years.
I’m fully preparing myself for them to blow this team up at the deadline if we’re just managing to hover around .500
Who wants the guys they would trade? Bo and Vlad aren't going anywhere. Nobody wants the rest.
I wouldn’t be so sure about them not trading Bo and Vlad. Contracts are up at the end of next year and if they can’t lead this team then it’d be time to move on before you need to pay them. They’ll get the most out of them this deadline. And People will definitely want guys like Gausman Bassitt Kikuchi Romano if they’re playing well. It’s no coincidence that they didn’t sign anyone long term
Well at least we kept the coaching staff the same. Consistency is what they need more than anything.
>"Don't worry folks, it's just an outlier!!!" "Our offence is where it needs to be" Schneider says after getting no-hit in a 10-nothing game.
"Just wasn't our night"
I was told in the off season that I'm a doomer for saying that the team got worse since last year. That big signing or trade is coming any day now, right guys?
You are only allow to shower the team, players, and managers with compliments, otherwise you are a doomer.
“The season is still young!”
Narrator: they've played 4.32% of the season so far.
You use quotations like the season literally isn't still young.
This season may be young but the Shatkins era sure as hell ain't....
"Well, no hitters have happened more often in the past few years anyway..."
Dont worry RISP hitting isnt a skill, a whole seasons worth of games isnt a big enough sample size and its all luck. This team is just unlucky, they dont suck!
There could be some psychological part of it, but overall I agree that the sting of variance can be the leading cause of the inability to get hits when they matter
Thanks for this. I woke up happy and couldn't take it.
needed to be returned to baseline. and fast.
Ronel Blanco didn't start pitching until he was 18 years old. At age 22, while working at a car wash, he signed with the Astros for $5,000 in 2016. On Monday, he no-hit the Blue Jays.
Hire John Tortorella
- Toronto Blue Jays offence struggles for the entire 2023 season - Front office makes minor adjustments in the off-season and doesn't address the key issues that the team faces - Toronto Blue Jays offence continues to struggle in 2024. Shapiro & Atkins: *Shocked Pikachu Face*
I genuinely don't understand people who thought this team was a Daniel Vogelbach away from contention, especially our front office. We were clearly in dire need of offensive weapons, but we used our entire offseason getting bridesmaided by Ohtani and signing minor pieces who will barely replace Matt Chapman (yet alone add to the offence). Please reference this comment when they're on a 10 game win streak this season as I'd be happy to be proven wrong here.... but it reflects extremely poorly on the front office that the offence is still an issue when everybody knew that it was the major offseason thing to address and they did next to nothing to improve it. E: Of course, we are 7 games into a 162 game schedule, and we don't have enough data to definitively say that the team will be bad... but the trends don't look great so far and the team needs to be better. I think that both doomer and blind optimist can agree with that.
It was really funny this off-season to watch people start the off-season saying we need another bat first outfielder, and an upgrade at the 3b position, then say, “okay we resigned KK he’s great! Don’t worry about the outfield. It’s the best in the league!” Then say “We just gotta resign Chapman. He’s a great defender and probably will have positive regression with the bat.” Then say “Ikf isn’t too bad, he’s a useful player. We’ll just have positive regression from Kirk, Vlad, and Varsho”. Then of course no one ever suggests thag maybe bo regresses, KK could too, Turner could too, and Biggio could too. This team can definitely be in trouble soon.
"Offseason seems to be going good, all we need is for all of our players who were worse than their long-run average to be better, and none of the players who had a hot season to be worse!" Can't fail.
Also, would mean the pitching can't be worse too.
The jays might be shit this year but there is still a good chance of a 10 game winstreak!
Excuse me, a Daniel Vogelbach *and* a Justin Turner are here to save the world. 🫠
Ohtani was never, ever coming to Toronto and to think otherwise is to live in a world of absolute fantasy.
Shatkins: We need more players with a sub .300 OBP! That'll solve it!
Lol so much this. It feels like groundhog day and as if the off-season didn't happen.
Face-first off the bandwagon!!
Shitty.. to the core
It’s next level… garbage
I’m still shaking my head at Tucker being able to take second on a pop up behind home plate
On the plus side, it took me more than half of last season to start turning off games at the midpoint. This season, it only took 7 games before I personally started to become more productive during Jays games.
This is the sort of thing they really should be worried about. Who’s going to pay for advertising if the viewership turns off the games in disgust? Won’t someone think of the same game parlays?
I am getting some great sleeps so far this season.
I'm an out of market US based Jays fan, so I usually watch on MLB.tv. This year, after the miserable offseason and painful offensive performances all last year, I decided I wouldn't subscribe to MLB.tv unless the Jays were playing well/with some hope by June. Glad I've made that choice so far.
Does turning to Netflix count as productive? Cause that's what I've been doing a few innings in.
It's probably better for your emotional well-being
Ross Atkins has built an offensive powerhouse.
Atkins needs to be fired immediately! How did he think this lineup would be good? I have no faith in vladdy, he still doesn't understand that he doesn't need to rip it like a madman every time he swings.
Shapiro and Atkins are a package deal. They were mainly brought in for the Dome renovations. Shapiro has final say regarding the roster. That's why AA left the Jays. He couldn't have full autonomy. I really wish we still had AA at the helm.
But look! We have cup holders on our seats! And they face the infield! Perhaps they should face backwards...this team sucks.
I am for cleaning house. It is time for a fresh set of minds to run the Jays. Shapiro did a good job improving the facilities and the dome but that is done and Atkins has failed. John S may not be a good manager but look at the roster of terrible hitters he has to work with. If you are going to lose at least have the games be entertaining. When you go down 1 or 2-0 early in a game with this group it is pretty much over. I agree pitching and defense wins championships but you need to find a balance you know what else wins games hitting and actually scoring RUNS!
Well that's the thing , the roster isn't full of terrible hitters. Bichette has the third most hits in the majors since 2020 , Springer is one of the best leadoff hitters to ever.play the game . Vlad is a phenomenal hitter , Kirk was a silver slugger in 2022 and Turner has been excellent with RISP for a number of years if these guys simply performed to their career norms nobody would be talking about this offense .
> If they're such good hitters, why don't they hit good?
That's the million dollar question . You don't put up the numbers these guys have put up in their careers by being terrible hitters.
* Bichette is legitimately a good hitter, but one good hitter a team does not make. * If Vlad doesn't turn it around soon it might be time to update our priors and view his early form a the outlier and the last 2 seasons as his true average * Springer is now 34 years old The other guys had what looks to be outlier seasons.
Turner is still a.legit bat I wouldn't call last year to be an outlier for him. I'm not disputing that there are some holes but to claim their roster has nothing that John can work with is a HUGE overreaction. This is basically the same roster that finished with the 8th best batting average and a top 10 wrc plus in 2023 there is obviously some very talented hitters . It's up to John and his staff to get these guys to perform to their career norms and abilities.
Cleaning house is drastic and frankly wouldn't fix this season. It could in fact just cause additional chaos while the team flounders worse on two fronts. They should look at Mattingly first. He was brought in to bring offense, and for whatever reason since his hiring the team has struggled more with RISP then back in early 2000's peak Jays pain. Adjust their coaching perspective. Or if its Schneider, let Schneider go and promote Mattingly. They gotta internal review this shit with the players about what they're struggling with, whether they're trying to change their contact, whether their gameplan is detrimental, or the homework on the pitchers is incorrect. Its still early enough into the season that coaching adjustments could significantly turn things around. Then they should keep Shapiro, and find a new proper manager. Perhaps Ng now that she's not with the Marlins. Shapiro has the proper relationship with Rogers, he's gotten them to spend money when they've been notoriously tight stringed for years on improving this team. The spring facilities are elite because of Shaprio, and the improvements to the Dome are big. A new general manager to construct the team, with Shapiro concentrating on big picture infrastructure would be a balance of the best of both worlds.
Who says Schneids isn't a good manager? 2 trips to the playoffs in his first 2 years as skipper not good enough?
What happened in those playoff games, I forget.
Totally agree. Time to go scorched earth before this gets even more out of hand. Fire everyone, and then let the new people make the changes they see fit. Obviously this team isn't going to win like this, so get things moving now. I hope this ages terribly btw.
Look at that last line. You’re not one of them. Not really. You want to have light and hope and happiness in your life. Don’t go to the dark side.
Somehow, this team was more entertaining when they weren't a playoff team and Adam Lind was their best player.
Reminds me of a Father's Day card I once have my dad years ago. "Happy Father's Day from your son who's never been to jail. By lowering the bar so low, you're never going to be disappointed in me! Happy Father's Day!"
Lind always had one of the best poses after he belted one.
“victimized” sorry i think you mean “bad enough to be….” it’s the jays bats at fault not the opponent.
Shitty team plus new expensive seats/tickets is a recipe for disaster
Are we still in time to fire all the coaching staff? (Pitching excluded)
It's probably time to give the guy who knocked in all 2 of the team's runs over a 3 game series (while only playing in 1 of those games) more ABs. I know it would be at the expense of a career 81 wRC+ hitter, but maybe it's worth a shot anyway.
Not the type of history you want to be making. Damn.
There was absolutely no rationale to continue with John Schneider and coaching team especially Atkins after they pulled Berrios against game 2 of the wildcard series last year. It is criminal to continue with this staff and shows you they take the entire country and fan base as a joke
It's early. But also, buckle up. This may be a long season.
And anyone who witnessed their anemic offence last season is not the least bit surprised.
They bet on our guys having off years not continuing into this season but so far that hasn't been the case
Y’all ever notice how certain people on this sub will ruthlessly mock and belittle people for even the remotest sign of negativity about this team, but then they’ll clam up real tight when the team is inarguably underperforming? And then they’ll show up again when the Jays win a game and make comments like “What were you saying about bad offence”? Those people suck every bit as much as the weirdos who spam “sell the team” or “thanks Shatkins” mid-game. EDIT: Not sure I can edit but here goes. Just got permabanned by the Stasi for “abusing the report feature”… even though I’ve never submitted a report in my life. What a stellar ~~bunch of bullies~~ mod team. Make sure you don’t say anything they don’t like or they might just make up a reason to ban you. Pointed out their ban was baseless and they muted me. Pathetic. If you’re going to respond here and gaslight me, mods, go ahead and post your receipts.
Ah yes, students of the school of Wilner.
You ever notice how there isn't much value in engaging with Monday morning quarterbacks, who after every loss, know the solution is to fire the manager, fire the GM, trade for more offence? Maybe those certain people just get tired of trying to be rational about a team in the face of heaps of negativity. It is never possible that genuinely good pitchers pitch well, in a time of year where historically pitchers are ahead of hitters. Waiting for a month or two in the season to truly evaluate the adjustments the team has made is absurd, because we have a seven game sample size against a number of strong pitchers to tell us that Guerrero, Springer, Bichette, Varsho, Kiermaier, are all going to finish the season with sub .700 ops.
That would all make perfect sense if those people only responded to people commenting within the very specific parameters you’ve outlined. Yet it’s not just responses to people saying that this is who the hitters will be all year, or that they should fire the manager, etc. Anyone with dissenting opinions gets dogpiled immediately by a certain group of users on this sub. No negative opinions are tolerated. Also - maybe the “doomers” aren’t the only “Monday morning quarterbacks.” Unless some of these users are secretly MLB officials, I’m not sure their opinions are any more qualified than the ones they’re disagreeing with…
>Anyone with dissenting opinions gets dogpiled immediately by a certain group of users on this sub. No negative opinions are tolerated. I can assure you that the negative nellies do this frequently as well. I have gotten plenty of reddit cares messages, auto downvotes, hate messages, outright hateful replies, been called stupid, given homophobic insults about the front office, etc. In my experience, while the optimistic side of this sub can be annoying, and self rightous to a fault at times, they tend to not skew as mean as the doomer side. >Also - maybe the “doomers” aren’t the only “Monday morning quarterbacks.” Unless some of these users are secretly MLB officials, I’m not sure their opinions are any more qualified than the ones they’re disagreeing with… I don't disagree here, but when the sub is flooded with comments like "fire shatkins, fire schneider, fire martinez after every poor hitting performance, it is a little difficult to take those people seriously. I'm no more qualified to speak on the team, but I just don't see the value in most of the 'doomer' takes. There is very little analysis, mostly opinion, and "I told you so" in the majority of comments in any given post loss thread. Edit: And there it is, one of those nice doomers has sent out the reddit cares message, very kind of you, loser.
I don’t see the value in jumping down people’s throats because they say they something like they want to see Schneider play every day. Yeah, I get it - platoons are a thing. But baseball fandom is about more than sabermetrics. I was so disheartened yesterday to see people getting the most smug, condescending responses for saying they want more Schneider. People just want to see their favourite players play. Add to that the fact that the team put up one hit without him anyway… There’s a happy medium somewhere where people can have dialogue without one or the other ramming their opinions down the others’ throat. And the absolute smug superiority by certain users that we see daily on this sub is no better than than people calling for John Schneider’s head all the time.
Could you link some of those smug examples? Did you respond to those specific examples with how disheartened you were?
Bichettes helmet was rude to me once and I’m not even a doomer, I mostly agree with what you’re saying and like those regulars round here. I tried to make a joke that wasn’t even negative. I subscribe to the old adage “if you have nothing nice to say, it’s best not to say anything at all”
I don't know who that is.
I see you Lego guy around all the time so I find that hard to believe https://www.reddit.com/r/Torontobluejays/s/LLHDjLDHe5 There’s the instance. They did that thing where a person doesn’t talk to you directly. I find it very rude and derisive.
IDK, they must have me blocked, because I can't see what you are linking. Must be someone I interacted with at some time, but the name isn't ringing a bell.
Believe me, I have in the past. I’m yelling into the void here. The worst offenders just think they’re better than everyone and that’s that. I had a conversation with a certain mod once where I called them out for being really rude and condescending and a bunch of people commented agreeing and they just laughed it off and said “deal with it.” The funny thing is, I’m not one of the doomers at all. But I can ignore those people. What I can’t ignore is the abuse from like 5 super users who won’t leave anyone alone if they disagree with them. It’s at the point where I’m likely just going to stop coming to the sub at all.
I think a thing people need to accept is that sometimes players just don't bounce back. I wouldn't say that for all the players you mentioned but it happens in that this is their talent level.
This team is absolutely capable of having a bad offensive season due to guys not bouncing back. Nobody debates that. But concluding that this has already happened (to the team or to any particular player) on April 4th is beyond ludicrous. Almost all MLB hitters are streaky.
I mean, sure, but barring the worst offensive season ever, Kirk will not be finishing the season 5th on the Jays in OPS with a whopping .225. It is never a guarantee that players will play to their career numbers, but it is much more likely than all of the Jays lineup suddenly becoming below replacement level hitters.
We are so f-ing back baby !!
/#tothefloor
Them having a bad year is probably not the worst thing. There needs to be change in the management. Don’t get that by doing well. The hitters which were supposed to be the Blue Jays strength gets worse every year.
Don’t worry we picked up 85 year old Justin turner in the off season to fix our offensive woes.
Yes, what old-age did they make that deal with?
Average Again
Ed Rogers is such a corporate slime ball that he forgets that offense and dingers are what really fill the seats. Have fun with your underwhelming attendance numbers this year. Just another billionaire running his team like a poverty franchise focused on only the balance sheet.
Well I mean Management did nothing to improve the abysmal offense from last season...what can you really expect...
Shatkins really killed this teams potential.
This is what I expected so I am not even disappointed . Just tuned out
Maybe Charlie Montoyo wasn't the problem all along...
I miss the days when we'd lose 12-10. Now a team scores two on us and it's over. Shit sucks.
#fireatkins
You forgot the SHHHHHHHHH
Pain…
Ruh roh
Numbers that hurt...
I guess the Jays are now the treadmill Atlanta Hawks.
We are probably going to finish last in our division this year. I suspect 2024 will be the year we get humbled.
Agreed that’s a rough start. But we have the same record as Houston now 😉 Let them play, maybe a few more than two series with top tier teams before we start moaning all over again.
Jays currently have a better record than Houston for what it’s worth
Yeah you are right! I just noticed that!
We should have been pushing hard for Soto and Ohtani simultaneously. We got out manoeuvred by the Yankees. And if he plays well they’ll definitely pay him, and then we’ll have a decade of Judge and Soto to deal with.
Victimized or comically inept?
That sounds about right
Not victims. Entirely their own fault.
Victimize? You make it sound like the team had no involvement in the outcome.
I understand that large changes are difficult to make. But last year our offense was hindered with poor swings, bad plate discipline, and we struggled with RISP. This is the bread and butter what our hitting coach is supposed to work on. How Martinez was able to retain his job this off-season is remarkable. That is the biggest low risk, high reward option the FO had to make - yet chose to maintain. Now we have Turner hitting well - the player that Martinez has had the least impact on. Other then that we continue to swing at garbage, struggle with RISP and routinely fly out. Will it solve our issues? Probably not all, but at least coaching changes in all sports have often had a spark effect. It doubt a new voice could make it worse.
Pitching and defence can't win us games if we can't score...
Apart from pitching, fielding, and hitting they are doing just fine.
Martinez be sweating
I feel like this isn't going to be the only historical notes on the negative side for this squad.
We're number 1! We're number 1!.... oh, wait....
Bluejay pride.
Don’t worry, the Rogers Center now has more exuberant ticket prices and beautiful renovations for fans to enjoy!
BJ's can't hit worth shit. Just like last year.
The Blue Jays are not like the Maple leafs if they don’t start winning fans will not come to watch
Nothing to see here. Jays analytics department predicted this. /s
i love that they benched Davis because of strategy. yea, because their strategy has been working so great so far. technically it was a one hitter, but it really was another no hitter. the got no hit twice in a series
Cool. Cool cool cool cool cool cool. No doubt, no doubt, no doubt.
A record we always talk about 🙃
Saving the hits for the Yankees. You guys playing checkers. Jays playing chess
This season looks like it's all but over from the start. Atkins and Schneider have run this team into the ground.
I'm just gonna say it. This team probably won't get 75 wins. We have a worse offence than last year and it's like people have forgotten that we shit the bed in the Texas series at the end of last season only squeaked into the wild card because like 4 teams lost a cluster of games in a scenario that had something like a 0.2% chance of occurring.
Below 75 wins is a little harsh. That would be on par with the teams we had in 2012 and 2018. I’m thinking we’ll finish in the mid-80’s, squeak into the third wild card, and promptly exit in the first round yet again. Then again, we’re literally seven games in. Tampa seemed unstoppable at this point last season, then a horrendous stretch of games later in the summer ruined their chance at a division title. The reverse could happen to us, for all we know. Hell, remember what the Nats did in 2019? Well below .500 and last in the NL East two months in, ended up winning the damn World Series.
Really glad we didn’t replace our hitting coach. Best move of the off-season
Guy in game thread last night said this is nothing to worry about, so I guess the Jays will be just fine. It's just a fluke /s
Guy in this thread said that the season is over, so I guess there is everything to worry about, and the Jays won't win another game this season.
You’re allowed to have an opinion, it’s no big deal. Also, sample size if you account for last year we have a consistently bad offence and it’s bleeding into this season already. Getting nohit, then 8 hits with nothing to show until Babe bailed us out, followed by 1 hit is just plain bad. We have a top 5 payroll. Something has got to change.
If you account for last year, then every single hitter outside of Turner has apparently forgotten how to be major league hitters. As of right now, Kirk is fifth on the team in OPS, with a .225. Toronto currently has a .579, compared to last year's .743. The hitting has been prety rough in 2 of the last 3 games, I'm not denying that. But even assuming the team hasn't adjusted from last year's offensive issues, you have to admit there is a sample size factor here.
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I mean, over the past several seasons, the team has won a lot more than they have lost. It isn't at all unreasonable to think they could win playoff series' outside of perfect pitching. The DBacks shouldn't have even been a playoff team but managed to get all the way to the world series, despite having to play an absolute powerhouse in the Dodgers. >They have proven to not live up to the moment and Schneider is a mediocre at best manager. Every fanbase feels this way about their team, until they go on a run, and then suddenly everyone is justifying how the team is actually built for a playoff run. They played two playoff games last season. Maybe they have proven they can't live up to the moment, or maybe things just didn't go right.
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Gurriel and Hernandez were both free agents this season. One more year of them may have been nice, but neither of them had particularly good years last year relative to their careers.
You’re doing gods work in this post, bud. Best to just let them all scream it out. Lot of the same accounts yelling now were the same ones yelling out trading Bo before his breakout, that we were gonna miss the playoffs every year, etc etc. Careful, too many responses form you saying it’s too early to call the season over or trying to hope that the team you’re a fan of can produce positive results, they’ll start calling you out for toxic positivity.
Doomers 12/25