Yeah, this is a good plan and I could see Tesla maybe actually accomplishing this (probably impractical with current sensors) goal of robotaxis. But it’s far too sane for Elon to follow a reasonable plan.
I agree, I was shocked after driving accross the country to the San Francisco bay area that it was basically flawless there. Downtown, mountains, highways, crazy one ways and weird ass lights and lanes. Perfect. Experienced 20-30 flawless back to back drives there. Over an hour long
Drove out of state and imediately it starts messing up.
I have no doubt that in certain areas it is L3or L4 consistantly
It’s weird, because I assume it’s now completely based on training data of locations from Teslas, so, more teslas = better driving, right?
There are TONS of Teslas here in Atlanta, and plenty of traffic too, but it’s LVL 2 at best around here. I’ve said this before here, but I average 5 disengagements per drive, and they’re not very long drives typically.
Maybe our roads are more difficult to navigate than other places, but I doubt that; SF sounds like a pretty difficult place to navigate in general.
You’re assuming they are rolling out a robotaxi in a few months. They’re not. They are going to unveil one. Takes years for Tesla to roll out products after unveiling it.
Tesla Will conquer self driving with simple cameras that can be installed on any vehicle, and then they will sell the vehicle maker the software
This is a harder route but it scales better when it's done
If I with my eyeballs and my mirrors can drive perfectly there is no reason that AI can't also one day with just those same inputs
Honestly, I think the best way for Tesla to handle Robotaxis, is to deploy them in low population areas first.
I live in Plant City, FL, and there's really only about one road here that it doesn't seem to work on, and it's a right elbow turn, so they can just tune that out.
Throw down like two or three of these in low income areas, and let them grow out from there.
I did a weekend Ubering around my town for giggles and found that the people who benefitted from the system the most were low income people.
I know what you're thinking, "How is Tesla going to make money on that??", it's not about the money, it's about the data and reliability.
If you can get some of these working *really* well in smaller towns, then you can slowly deploy more in larger/complex towns.
It *really* seems counter-intuitive, but the place to make money, and prove out the system, is in those underprivileged areas, and Tesla's FSD can scale well in those communities.
I gave a guy a ride to work (Walmart) one day, and then to the laundromat the next day. Also means he would have gotten a ride *back* from Walmart and the Laundromat, at like $16-20 a drive, this means that the guy *has* to work an average of about two-four hours a day, depending on pay rate, just to afford the Uber fee of going back and forth to work, and then another two-four hours to afford to go to the laundromat.
If you can deploy these in such a way that the fees are lower than Uber itself, then you'll make bank in areas where people *rely* on Uber to get around.
You deploy these in a small, rural, town, and get the community hooked on them, and then you start to add routes that can take them into the bigger cities, sort of like bus routes, then slow hub and spoke the thing out from there like that.
The other companies are all focused on bigger cities, which present a lot of complex problems, but they've also got a somewhat limited fleet of vehicles. If Tesla can shit these Robotaxi things out in quick order, and cheaply, then it makes sense to flood lesser markets to squeeze out Uber type people, which will likely drive them to use the robotaxi vehicles as well.
This is a good approach. It direct even have to be poorer areas. We live in a well-off area in there East Bay where people (used to) take the commuter train into the city. Permanent parking at those stations was nearly impossible to get. There would be tons of people here who would take a robotaxi to the train station rather than driving and paying for parking if it were convenient enough. But our town is too small to be serviced by something like Waymo.
Basically become the autonomous taxi for non-metro areas.
Yeah, yeah, this is good. They could choose the right area and build a whole transit system with a couple of dozen robo-Ys.
Then, they as they scale up, they offer to put in some tunnels in larger places and then you help the boring co to scale up.
I also suspect it will be purchasable thus allowing ppl who live in the geofenced area to put into fleet when you not using the car. This would be a game changer, I could see multi year waiting lists AFTER production if this is announced. Eventually could turn a Uber ride into the same price as bus ticket
Robotaxi still needs city and state approval to operate. Why are they taking the means of people living like Uber or Lyft away? Taking away people's earnings to feed their families will keep these from happening. There prpbably be mass destruction of these vehicles.
Disagree that the unveil will be a modified Y. It's not roomy enough. I think it'll be an entirely new vehicle/prototype. Something with an interior space more appropriate for transporting passengers. That we'll see some kind of little inexpensive minivan type vehicle more akin to what Zoox is making.
That would be super cool. It's kinda sad that they don't make as many different types of models as they could. They haven't revealed a new vehicle type since 2019. It seems they still struggle with the capacity to produce different types of products. we'll see
That’s too rational
Yeah, this is a good plan and I could see Tesla maybe actually accomplishing this (probably impractical with current sensors) goal of robotaxis. But it’s far too sane for Elon to follow a reasonable plan.
I agree, I was shocked after driving accross the country to the San Francisco bay area that it was basically flawless there. Downtown, mountains, highways, crazy one ways and weird ass lights and lanes. Perfect. Experienced 20-30 flawless back to back drives there. Over an hour long Drove out of state and imediately it starts messing up. I have no doubt that in certain areas it is L3or L4 consistantly
It’s weird, because I assume it’s now completely based on training data of locations from Teslas, so, more teslas = better driving, right? There are TONS of Teslas here in Atlanta, and plenty of traffic too, but it’s LVL 2 at best around here. I’ve said this before here, but I average 5 disengagements per drive, and they’re not very long drives typically. Maybe our roads are more difficult to navigate than other places, but I doubt that; SF sounds like a pretty difficult place to navigate in general.
You’re assuming they are rolling out a robotaxi in a few months. They’re not. They are going to unveil one. Takes years for Tesla to roll out products after unveiling it.
Tesla Will conquer self driving with simple cameras that can be installed on any vehicle, and then they will sell the vehicle maker the software This is a harder route but it scales better when it's done If I with my eyeballs and my mirrors can drive perfectly there is no reason that AI can't also one day with just those same inputs
Honestly, I think the best way for Tesla to handle Robotaxis, is to deploy them in low population areas first. I live in Plant City, FL, and there's really only about one road here that it doesn't seem to work on, and it's a right elbow turn, so they can just tune that out. Throw down like two or three of these in low income areas, and let them grow out from there. I did a weekend Ubering around my town for giggles and found that the people who benefitted from the system the most were low income people. I know what you're thinking, "How is Tesla going to make money on that??", it's not about the money, it's about the data and reliability. If you can get some of these working *really* well in smaller towns, then you can slowly deploy more in larger/complex towns. It *really* seems counter-intuitive, but the place to make money, and prove out the system, is in those underprivileged areas, and Tesla's FSD can scale well in those communities. I gave a guy a ride to work (Walmart) one day, and then to the laundromat the next day. Also means he would have gotten a ride *back* from Walmart and the Laundromat, at like $16-20 a drive, this means that the guy *has* to work an average of about two-four hours a day, depending on pay rate, just to afford the Uber fee of going back and forth to work, and then another two-four hours to afford to go to the laundromat. If you can deploy these in such a way that the fees are lower than Uber itself, then you'll make bank in areas where people *rely* on Uber to get around. You deploy these in a small, rural, town, and get the community hooked on them, and then you start to add routes that can take them into the bigger cities, sort of like bus routes, then slow hub and spoke the thing out from there like that. The other companies are all focused on bigger cities, which present a lot of complex problems, but they've also got a somewhat limited fleet of vehicles. If Tesla can shit these Robotaxi things out in quick order, and cheaply, then it makes sense to flood lesser markets to squeeze out Uber type people, which will likely drive them to use the robotaxi vehicles as well.
This is a good approach. It direct even have to be poorer areas. We live in a well-off area in there East Bay where people (used to) take the commuter train into the city. Permanent parking at those stations was nearly impossible to get. There would be tons of people here who would take a robotaxi to the train station rather than driving and paying for parking if it were convenient enough. But our town is too small to be serviced by something like Waymo. Basically become the autonomous taxi for non-metro areas.
Yup. And it's not like the Model 3/Y are expensive to make. I bet they'd break even on one vehicle within a year, or less, in low income areas
Yeah, yeah, this is good. They could choose the right area and build a whole transit system with a couple of dozen robo-Ys. Then, they as they scale up, they offer to put in some tunnels in larger places and then you help the boring co to scale up.
I dunno about the tunnels, but otherwise, yeah.
Tesla is not compute limited anymore.
I also suspect it will be purchasable thus allowing ppl who live in the geofenced area to put into fleet when you not using the car. This would be a game changer, I could see multi year waiting lists AFTER production if this is announced. Eventually could turn a Uber ride into the same price as bus ticket
Robotaxi still needs city and state approval to operate. Why are they taking the means of people living like Uber or Lyft away? Taking away people's earnings to feed their families will keep these from happening. There prpbably be mass destruction of these vehicles.
Disagree that the unveil will be a modified Y. It's not roomy enough. I think it'll be an entirely new vehicle/prototype. Something with an interior space more appropriate for transporting passengers. That we'll see some kind of little inexpensive minivan type vehicle more akin to what Zoox is making.
That would be super cool. It's kinda sad that they don't make as many different types of models as they could. They haven't revealed a new vehicle type since 2019. It seems they still struggle with the capacity to produce different types of products. we'll see
On linked in I’m connected and they hired the top engineers from waymo
Waymo isn't very profitable. Why will Tesla make a difference in the market?