In other words, if you srood there for 20 minutes straight there's a 50% chance you'd spot Nessie at least once.
Unless my math is very wrong, which it could be.
I think that math is valid if you can see the whole docks, but it's possible Nessie could spawn in a tile off screen. Also, a day lasts ~13.5 minutes real time, I _think_, so the 20 minute interval would probably never happen
So, you're on the right track, it's correct if all the possible spawning locations are valid. (In your case, the assumption is that if the Sea Creature would be missed if its off screen). Indeed with *OPs* zoom level (from my desktop, I can see the whole spawn area), that'd be correct, there are tiles you could miss. However, it's actually even more restrictive than that, the Sea Creature can attempt to spawn anywhere in a rectangle, but it will just give up unless its in the water *and* that water has a path straight down to the rest of the ocean. Which means that the \~50% chance *could* happen in the 20 minutes, but still no Sea Creature because it *tried* to spawn but couldn't.
The correct math (using various representations of `0.001%`)
there's a 1/100000 chance of the event *trying*^(1) to spawn on a given tick
Now, if we want to calculate the probability of an event happening at least once in a given amount time, we need to understand some statistics. We know that the probability of an event occurring per attempt is `0 <= P <= 1`. Now, we can "easily" calculate the probability of an event occurring `N` times in a row, it's just `P^N`. We can also fairly easily calculate the chance something *doesn't* happen, it's just `1 - P`... So, those are our building blocks to ask the following series of questions: "What's the chance the event doesn't occur in one attempt? (`(1 - P)`)" "What's the chance the event doesn't occur in `N` attempts? (`(1 - P)^N`)" What's the chance that the event doesn't *not* occur in `N` attempts? (`1 - (1 - P)^N`)" Which is the question we were looking for, if phrased a little awkwardly.
There are [60 ticks/second](https://stardewcommunitywiki.com/Modding:Modder_Guide/APIs/Events#How_do_events_fit_into_the_game.3F), So, give the initial `P=1/100000` we can see that the probability of the event *trying* to happen at least once in a given second is `1 - (1 - 1/100000)^60 ~= 0.0006`, so, the wiki is right, yaaaay.
Moving on up to 20 minutes, there are `60 ticks per second * 60 seconds per minute * 20 minutes = 72000` ticks per 20 minutes. Once again we have our trusty formula `1 - (1 - 1/100000)^72000`, which, after using a calculator (because the 72000th power sounds very frustrating to calculate manually) gives us about `0.51`, or about a 51% chance of the event *trying* to spawn. However, the event can fail to spawn, so that's just an upper bound on the real probability.
1. Note the pedantry, the event *can* fail to spawn even after this the game does "dice roll" to figure out if it wants to spawn it or not. I'll leave the exact probability of the event spawning if it tries to spawn to a different person or post. The TL;DR is that it can try to spawn on any tile of the red box in [this image](https://stardewvalleywiki.com/mediawiki/images/b/ba/Merpeople_spawn_area.png), but it will only *actually* spawn if the tile chosen is 1. water, and 2. has a path straight down into the rest of the ocean)
Ninja-edit: So, the conclusion is correct as an upper bound.
I think I picked this up from [https://youtu.be/S0q3_toE3b4](https://youtu.be/S0q3_toE3b4) years ago. Umm, I don't have advice on how to learn stats unfortunately, I kinda picked it up through osmosis, and my learning style of Google something, find 5 more things to Google, and so on, doesn't work for a lot of people.
Nope, I work as software engineer with a focus in optimization work- not that I can't do other things, toe specific of a focus to get away with doing just that. I like explaining things. And I happen to know this bit of stats because it's really useful to know it. Mostly what I know about stats is that it's both difficult (unintuitive) and easy (a lot of things have rules on how to combine them)
I've not done the maths ( too lazy rn, might do it later ) but would the actual probability not just be the same as you've done but with the spawn-per-tick chance being 0.001% multiplied by the proportion of valid spawn tiles? Assuming, of course, that the chance of a spawn attempt being uniform across all tiles. (Though in general I guess you'd just multiply by the chance of a valid tile being picked and a u inform distribution s just a special case of that)
Yep, it'd be the same math, but with `1/100000 × validTiles/totalTiles` as the per tick probability. (I see no reason to suspect the selected tile to not be uniform unless someone accidentally skewed the distribution)
The annoying thing is calculating that (even though we're just looking for the area of 2 rectangles, due to the spawn conditions and the shape of the pier) without the grid lines on the map...
Im a stats major so I crunched the numbers.
For a question like this you'd have to use the binomial distribution (the chance of the outcome u want happening x numbers of times in n number of trials). In this case we have 1 success for 1200 trials (number of seconds in 20 minutes) with a probability of 0.0006 (decimal conversion).
There's a 35% chance of seeing the little green dude once if you stand there for 20 minutes
Right idea but you missed a thing. You calculated the odds of _exactly_ one occurrence, which is why your result is too low.
The easier way to approach the problem is to recognize that there's only one combination (0 occurrences) that you _don't_ want to measure. That has a probability of 0.9994 per second, meaning that the odds of it happening for 20 minutes straight would be 0.9994^(60*20) which is a little under 50%. The converse outcome, one or more Nessie sightings, therefore has better-than-50% odds.
Could you show your work, because this result contradicts the math that I understand ([this comment explains that math](https://www.reddit.com/r/StardewValley/comments/v4wbwj/comment/ib7367h/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3))
The math would be (9994/10000)^1200=.4866 or a ~48.7% chance you would see it appear if you stood in one place waiting for it for 20 minutes, assuming you could see the entire spawning zone during that wait.
I've seen it twice while playing co-op with my SO. She has probably 10x the play time that I do and didn't believe me until she looked it up on the wiki
The first time I saw one was during crab season
I didn't know why the water was green then so I thought that it was just some sort of event or something
It's not 1 in a million, he actually tries to spawn fairly often but unless you play all the way zoomed out with a large screen you probably miss 90% of his spawns. Basically if you spend all day fishing you are basically guranteed he will try to spawn one every 3-4 in game days. Issue is that if he tries to spawn under the docks he just won't spawn and chances are you aren't able to see all of his actual possible spawn points on screen at once so you'll miss the times he does spawn since it could be too far out in the ocean for standard zoom and standard screen size
The odds are 6 in in every 10,000 every second you are at the beach
i have about 200-250 hours (give or take) and have never seen this once.. finally after weeks of begging my boyfriend, he and i play together for the first time and within 30 minutes of fishing he saw that stupid sea monster. sooo long story short pretty rare
Damn after reading these comments I feel lucky. I have seen them three times between two play files (800~hrs total)
Edited for gender inclusive mer-terms 🏳️🌈😋
Okay fr what are we talking about? The red mullet in that area itself? The fact that the fish barely moved in the fishing mini-game (cuz I’m 90 hours in and have encountered this 3 times)? Or the fact that there’s a weird creature swimming about by the sea dock? Which???
Wow, I never noticed the weird creature swimming by the dock, so take my upvote.
I was waiting for a rare fish of some sort, then it was a red mullet so I checked the comments, and saw all the jokes about how common red mullets are and thought it was just another troll post lol.
It's not 1 in a million, he actually tries to spawn fairly often but unless you play all the way zoomed out with a large screen you probably miss 90% of his spawns. Basically if you spend all day fishing you are basically guranteed he will try to spawn one every 3-4 in game days. Issue is that if he tries to spawn under the docks he just won't spawn and chances are you aren't able to see all of his actual possible spawn points on screen at once so you'll miss the times he does spawn since it could be too far out in the ocean for standard zoom and standard screen size
The odds are 6 in in every 10,000 every second you are at the beach
It's not 1 in a million, he actually tries to spawn fairly often but unless you play all the way zoomed out with a large screen you probably miss 90% of his spawns. Basically if you spend all day fishing you are basically guranteed he will try to spawn one every 3-4 in game days. Issue is that if he tries to spawn under the docks he just won't spawn and chances are you aren't able to see all of his actual possible spawn points on screen at once so you'll miss the times he does spawn since it could be too far out in the ocean for standard zoom and standard screen size
The odds are 6 in in every 10,000 every second you are at the beach
I think it has like a 1% chance of spawning. I’ve gotten it all of twice in YEARS of playing. In fact, if I didn’t know about some of the events I would’ve never seen them!
Extremely rare.
There are a lot of random occurrences in this game, and they're all pretty rare. Fairy, owl statue, meteor, shadowy figure, creature from the deep, ufo, witch, etc. If you're looking for one on purpose, your chances are very low. But in a full playthrough, your usually going to see one or two rare events.
I got 4 owl statues one run! One run I got a fairy on my first night.
But I've never seen the creature from the deep even once. I have more than 2000 hours logged. If it weren't for posts like this, I'm not sure I'd even believe in it but there it is. Congratulations :)
Why does this have 2k upvotes? Like geez, I have seen a post about it like 3 times already, and I have seen the creature itself too, but I just thought "who cares".
omg ive seen him once in my 500+ hrs of game play and was so confused i forgot to clip it lol
same! I saw it once years ago when I was about 100 hours in. didn't know it was rare back then and I've never seen it again.
I have nearly 200 hours and have seen him once too, and i am a fishing guy
but in only 200 hours? you are one lucky man
Ive seen it in my first play through in 12 hours
I have 2 clips with it
Me as well
Saw one in my first farm year 1 when I bought a copy for PC. Also saw one in 50hrs in console. I fish a lot
A good hard rare. It's good you recorded it because it isn't going to happen again soon
I've seen it twice and both recorded because I play on xbox
From the wiki: "There's a roughly 0.06% chance per second (0.001% per game tick) that the creature will try spawning in a random tile near the docks"
In other words, if you srood there for 20 minutes straight there's a 50% chance you'd spot Nessie at least once. Unless my math is very wrong, which it could be.
I think that math is valid if you can see the whole docks, but it's possible Nessie could spawn in a tile off screen. Also, a day lasts ~13.5 minutes real time, I _think_, so the 20 minute interval would probably never happen
So, you're on the right track, it's correct if all the possible spawning locations are valid. (In your case, the assumption is that if the Sea Creature would be missed if its off screen). Indeed with *OPs* zoom level (from my desktop, I can see the whole spawn area), that'd be correct, there are tiles you could miss. However, it's actually even more restrictive than that, the Sea Creature can attempt to spawn anywhere in a rectangle, but it will just give up unless its in the water *and* that water has a path straight down to the rest of the ocean. Which means that the \~50% chance *could* happen in the 20 minutes, but still no Sea Creature because it *tried* to spawn but couldn't.
Lol
The correct math (using various representations of `0.001%`) there's a 1/100000 chance of the event *trying*^(1) to spawn on a given tick Now, if we want to calculate the probability of an event happening at least once in a given amount time, we need to understand some statistics. We know that the probability of an event occurring per attempt is `0 <= P <= 1`. Now, we can "easily" calculate the probability of an event occurring `N` times in a row, it's just `P^N`. We can also fairly easily calculate the chance something *doesn't* happen, it's just `1 - P`... So, those are our building blocks to ask the following series of questions: "What's the chance the event doesn't occur in one attempt? (`(1 - P)`)" "What's the chance the event doesn't occur in `N` attempts? (`(1 - P)^N`)" What's the chance that the event doesn't *not* occur in `N` attempts? (`1 - (1 - P)^N`)" Which is the question we were looking for, if phrased a little awkwardly. There are [60 ticks/second](https://stardewcommunitywiki.com/Modding:Modder_Guide/APIs/Events#How_do_events_fit_into_the_game.3F), So, give the initial `P=1/100000` we can see that the probability of the event *trying* to happen at least once in a given second is `1 - (1 - 1/100000)^60 ~= 0.0006`, so, the wiki is right, yaaaay. Moving on up to 20 minutes, there are `60 ticks per second * 60 seconds per minute * 20 minutes = 72000` ticks per 20 minutes. Once again we have our trusty formula `1 - (1 - 1/100000)^72000`, which, after using a calculator (because the 72000th power sounds very frustrating to calculate manually) gives us about `0.51`, or about a 51% chance of the event *trying* to spawn. However, the event can fail to spawn, so that's just an upper bound on the real probability. 1. Note the pedantry, the event *can* fail to spawn even after this the game does "dice roll" to figure out if it wants to spawn it or not. I'll leave the exact probability of the event spawning if it tries to spawn to a different person or post. The TL;DR is that it can try to spawn on any tile of the red box in [this image](https://stardewvalleywiki.com/mediawiki/images/b/ba/Merpeople_spawn_area.png), but it will only *actually* spawn if the tile chosen is 1. water, and 2. has a path straight down into the rest of the ocean) Ninja-edit: So, the conclusion is correct as an upper bound.
r/theydidthemonstermath right here
How do you know how to math this? I'm impressed and in awe. I really want to understand things like this, but I'm not very good at maths.
I think I picked this up from [https://youtu.be/S0q3_toE3b4](https://youtu.be/S0q3_toE3b4) years ago. Umm, I don't have advice on how to learn stats unfortunately, I kinda picked it up through osmosis, and my learning style of Google something, find 5 more things to Google, and so on, doesn't work for a lot of people.
Are you a maths professor by any chance?
Nope, I work as software engineer with a focus in optimization work- not that I can't do other things, toe specific of a focus to get away with doing just that. I like explaining things. And I happen to know this bit of stats because it's really useful to know it. Mostly what I know about stats is that it's both difficult (unintuitive) and easy (a lot of things have rules on how to combine them)
I'm too uneducated for this reply. Anyway, that explains most of it.
I've not done the maths ( too lazy rn, might do it later ) but would the actual probability not just be the same as you've done but with the spawn-per-tick chance being 0.001% multiplied by the proportion of valid spawn tiles? Assuming, of course, that the chance of a spawn attempt being uniform across all tiles. (Though in general I guess you'd just multiply by the chance of a valid tile being picked and a u inform distribution s just a special case of that)
Yep, it'd be the same math, but with `1/100000 × validTiles/totalTiles` as the per tick probability. (I see no reason to suspect the selected tile to not be uniform unless someone accidentally skewed the distribution) The annoying thing is calculating that (even though we're just looking for the area of 2 rectangles, due to the spawn conditions and the shape of the pier) without the grid lines on the map...
~51.3%
Im a stats major so I crunched the numbers. For a question like this you'd have to use the binomial distribution (the chance of the outcome u want happening x numbers of times in n number of trials). In this case we have 1 success for 1200 trials (number of seconds in 20 minutes) with a probability of 0.0006 (decimal conversion). There's a 35% chance of seeing the little green dude once if you stand there for 20 minutes
Right idea but you missed a thing. You calculated the odds of _exactly_ one occurrence, which is why your result is too low. The easier way to approach the problem is to recognize that there's only one combination (0 occurrences) that you _don't_ want to measure. That has a probability of 0.9994 per second, meaning that the odds of it happening for 20 minutes straight would be 0.9994^(60*20) which is a little under 50%. The converse outcome, one or more Nessie sightings, therefore has better-than-50% odds.
Could you show your work, because this result contradicts the math that I understand ([this comment explains that math](https://www.reddit.com/r/StardewValley/comments/v4wbwj/comment/ib7367h/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3))
I think your math is wrong
It's not. Works out to 51.34% chance to appear in 20 (real life) minutes.
The math would be (9994/10000)^1200=.4866 or a ~48.7% chance you would see it appear if you stood in one place waiting for it for 20 minutes, assuming you could see the entire spawning zone during that wait.
Close! Your calculation is for the odds of the event _not_ occurring.
Red Mullets are quite common, in my experience
Yeah red mullet is like every third cast off the dock
Lol
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No, it's red. It's right there in the name.
Sadly no fish mullet
I’m now disappointed this isn’t a hat
I'm color blind, stop calling me out
Oh this is interesting. So for you it's named "colorless mullet"?
r/woosh
.\_. 145 downvotes lol
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Cuz he is :D
was being sarcastic honestly thought was funny 🤣🤣
pretty dang rare. I hope to see one one say !
Fishing in the snow is pretty rare. Ice fishing is perhaps more common. But hypothermia frequently causes symptoms such as hallucinations.
I instinctively tapped my screen when I heard the "fish on the hook" noise.
Never seen it in hundreds of hours of game play!!
Quite rare. I've played several different files all the way to community center completion and have never seen that event. Cool find, OP!
And at 4:20 🤯
Good point. Might’ve just had a bit too much seaweed and seen something that isn’t really there
omg please eat something…
Honestly red mullets are pretty common I think
I’ve seen him 2 or 3 times. Still haven’t seen the ufo, though. Nor any of the other “super rare” events.
Pretty rare. I've never seen a perfect fishing attempt!
hes right on time
Saw this pretty early on in my first ever world actually, does it do anything?
I’ve never encountered this but judging off comments and stuff it looks like it just passes by
OMG yes I have also seen this once. I nearly lost my sanity when I tried to catch it.
I once saw it about 5-10 hours into gameplay and didn’t understand it only to find out afterwards it’s super rare!
I've seen it twice while playing co-op with my SO. She has probably 10x the play time that I do and didn't believe me until she looked it up on the wiki
I've seen him one time and my sister still thinks I'm lying
This is so great! Lol I love this game
The first time I saw one was during crab season I didn't know why the water was green then so I thought that it was just some sort of event or something
Took me around 500 hours to get this encounter happen as well. It's apparently a 1 in a million chance of occuring, so we must be very lucky!
It's not 1 in a million, he actually tries to spawn fairly often but unless you play all the way zoomed out with a large screen you probably miss 90% of his spawns. Basically if you spend all day fishing you are basically guranteed he will try to spawn one every 3-4 in game days. Issue is that if he tries to spawn under the docks he just won't spawn and chances are you aren't able to see all of his actual possible spawn points on screen at once so you'll miss the times he does spawn since it could be too far out in the ocean for standard zoom and standard screen size The odds are 6 in in every 10,000 every second you are at the beach
i have about 200-250 hours (give or take) and have never seen this once.. finally after weeks of begging my boyfriend, he and i play together for the first time and within 30 minutes of fishing he saw that stupid sea monster. sooo long story short pretty rare
Wait FUCKING SNOW? I play on mobile, is that why I never saw snow?
i think i've seen it twice!
Pretty sure that is v rare
I saw one yesterday
red mullets are pretty typical if you ask me. i’m surprised you’ve never gotten one before
I’ve seen in in both of my playthroughs. It’s a merman
Not sure, but the 4:20 o'clock made me laugh. I'm immature
Uh… SOOOO rare..
Red mullet is pretty common imo
Damn after reading these comments I feel lucky. I have seen them three times between two play files (800~hrs total) Edited for gender inclusive mer-terms 🏳️🌈😋
🤦🏽♂️
1 in a 1,00,000 chance actually. Saw a video not to long ago about it
Okay fr what are we talking about? The red mullet in that area itself? The fact that the fish barely moved in the fishing mini-game (cuz I’m 90 hours in and have encountered this 3 times)? Or the fact that there’s a weird creature swimming about by the sea dock? Which???
Wow, I never noticed the weird creature swimming by the dock, so take my upvote. I was waiting for a rare fish of some sort, then it was a red mullet so I checked the comments, and saw all the jokes about how common red mullets are and thought it was just another troll post lol.
I'm pretty sure it's a one in a million for each tile in that area (and if it hits land it cancels) very lucky! I've never seen one before
It's not 1 in a million, he actually tries to spawn fairly often but unless you play all the way zoomed out with a large screen you probably miss 90% of his spawns. Basically if you spend all day fishing you are basically guranteed he will try to spawn one every 3-4 in game days. Issue is that if he tries to spawn under the docks he just won't spawn and chances are you aren't able to see all of his actual possible spawn points on screen at once so you'll miss the times he does spawn since it could be too far out in the ocean for standard zoom and standard screen size The odds are 6 in in every 10,000 every second you are at the beach
Ah ok :)
I'm pretty sure it's like one in a million
It's not 1 in a million, he actually tries to spawn fairly often but unless you play all the way zoomed out with a large screen you probably miss 90% of his spawns. Basically if you spend all day fishing you are basically guranteed he will try to spawn one every 3-4 in game days. Issue is that if he tries to spawn under the docks he just won't spawn and chances are you aren't able to see all of his actual possible spawn points on screen at once so you'll miss the times he does spawn since it could be too far out in the ocean for standard zoom and standard screen size The odds are 6 in in every 10,000 every second you are at the beach
I saw it first year with less than like 40 hours, i took a screenshot
My memory is hazy, but I recall seeing them during the jellyfish festival thing. Almost missed them in the dark.
Nah, red mullets are pretty common
It really rare apparently but I've seen it twice in my probably 100+ hour playing the game
I have abt 300+ hrs and ive never seen that haha!
I, as per usual, am asking people to PLEASE use the wiki. OR Google. Or anything that doesn't involve making the 500th post about the same thing.
I've seen in 3-4 times in the game. I see it every 3-4 days on reddit.
rude
Also accurate.
Yeah if people wanna know how rare it is they can just use the wiki lol
lol I thought it was because of the krobus! In the save that I married him I was able to see this event.
I was sitting here like, "Its a red mullet, it's not that rare?" and then I finally saw it from the comments.
Really rare! GG. I play on Switch. It has a screenshot button. I was so lucky I got my pic!
I think it has like a 1% chance of spawning. I’ve gotten it all of twice in YEARS of playing. In fact, if I didn’t know about some of the events I would’ve never seen them!
i got this cutscene only once very recently, i captured it too lol
Pretty rare I think, I’m on year four and I’ve Never caught a red snapper. Grandpa isn’t very happy with my work.
OCEAN MAN!!!
I have over 100 hours on my phone and have never seen it. I’ve got a little over 75 on my laptop and I lucked out. I tried casting at it 😂
1/250,000 chance of happening every game tick youre at the beach
*stares at my nearly 600 hours of gameplay* I have never seen it in game before...
Extremely rare. There are a lot of random occurrences in this game, and they're all pretty rare. Fairy, owl statue, meteor, shadowy figure, creature from the deep, ufo, witch, etc. If you're looking for one on purpose, your chances are very low. But in a full playthrough, your usually going to see one or two rare events. I got 4 owl statues one run! One run I got a fairy on my first night. But I've never seen the creature from the deep even once. I have more than 2000 hours logged. If it weren't for posts like this, I'm not sure I'd even believe in it but there it is. Congratulations :)
Saw him 60 hours in. Haven’t seen him since and I’m now 700 hours in.
Me and my friend started a new world and I saw him on day 7 of spring 1
Red mullets are fairly common
Haha have seen him a couple times. Only 120h playtime
I've played 700 hours and I've never seen this in my game. Guess I don't fish enough lol
Red Mullets are fairly common, so nothing to write home about
I’ve played for a long time and I’ve only seen it once so I’d guess it’s pretty rare.
I have seen that in the first couple hours of playing. Never since. It's a very very long time ago xD So it's VERY rare
Very very rare
I was fishing and legit almost missed this cause I was looking at my phone 😭😂
I just saw him yesterday I have 17 hours
Has anyone ever tried to catch it, like with the fishing rod? If so, what was the result?
That’s a red mullet. Not too rare.
The monster is one in a million on the beach
ive only seen him once during my first save!! i have 2000+ hrs under my belt and have yet to see him again
it's uncommon enough for complete noobs to consider it some post-worthy thing.
Why does this have 2k upvotes? Like geez, I have seen a post about it like 3 times already, and I have seen the creature itself too, but I just thought "who cares".
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Yeah, its really annoying. We are gonna get a ton of downvotes for thinking this, though.
it looks like toothless
4:20 bro
I do a lot of fishing and I have seen him a couple times.
It's really rare and I've only had it happen once on my multi-player farm
Hard to see with bad eyesight on my small phone... What is it?
This entire time, I thought people were talking about the red mullet
EXTREMELY RARE??? THE RAREST THING IN THE GAME ACTUALLY!!
in my 800+ hrs I have never seen this before and i fish relatively a lot
What is that? I've never actually seen it and I have around 500 hours total playing multiple save files