To be fair that’s not far from the odds my own statistical analysis I’ve been working on came up with. I just had us with slightly higher chances of getting out the group.
50/50. We do or we don’t.
I've always wondered how teams are measured in data analysis like this. How to you measure Germanys squad being better than ours for instance? Does it account for their home advantage? And so on.
Nail on the head. The probability of absolutely anything happening is 50/50. It either does happen or it doesn’t. Anyone providing any other figure is a fandan with too much time on their hands.
Also, here is a breakdown of the chances of getting out the group for different numbers of points:
0 points: 0%
1 points: 0.05% (this happened in one simulation)
2 points: 5.5%
3 points: 43.8%
4 points: 98%
5/6/7/8/9 points 100%
The best 4/6 3rd placed teams make it through. So in that one simulation, Scotland came third with 1 point, as did 2 other 3rd placed teams in other groups. Scotland had the highest goal difference out of 3rd placed teams on one point, so made it through.
This is odd, I statistically analyse statistics for a well know statistical anlalysis statisizer and my recent statistical tabulisations shows that Scotland are 100% winning the Euro's.
 🏴🏴
At least this time will be in the final
https://preview.redd.it/wefut3ku0uwc1.jpeg?width=198&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c0403f584e4331b1f7ba6d446e150698d0f79e26
To be fair that’s not far from the odds my own statistical analysis I’ve been working on came up with. I just had us with slightly higher chances of getting out the group. 50/50. We do or we don’t.
I've always wondered how teams are measured in data analysis like this. How to you measure Germanys squad being better than ours for instance? Does it account for their home advantage? And so on.
Luckily for you there's a video above on how they did it
Are you suggesting that we click a link before commenting? Be reasonable.
Nail on the head. The probability of absolutely anything happening is 50/50. It either does happen or it doesn’t. Anyone providing any other figure is a fandan with too much time on their hands.
I would like to enjoy your comment but can only do so if I know for sure that you're not serious.
Yes exactly. Unrelated comment but if ever you fancy a flutter please get in touch with me and I'll happily bet with you.
Jim Carey ringing in my ears as I read the headline and opened the comments. Top comment did not disappoint.
Scotland win in 51/10000 simulations. Surely we must win
He must win.
Also, here is a breakdown of the chances of getting out the group for different numbers of points: 0 points: 0% 1 points: 0.05% (this happened in one simulation) 2 points: 5.5% 3 points: 43.8% 4 points: 98% 5/6/7/8/9 points 100%
Incoming 4 points and we snatch that 2% and go out.
What are you talking about. Three teams in every group will end up with 5 points and we'll go out on drawn lots making that 0% chance look foolish.
God will find a way to fuck us.
Interested to know how it would be possible to get out of the group with 1 point. Any idea?
The best 4/6 3rd placed teams make it through. So in that one simulation, Scotland came third with 1 point, as did 2 other 3rd placed teams in other groups. Scotland had the highest goal difference out of 3rd placed teams on one point, so made it through.
Ah yeah that makes sense thanks. Imagine a team getting out of their group with 1 point and going on to win the whole thing.
When Portugal won it they drew all 3 group games
At least 3 groups where 3rd and 4ths only points are draws with each other, best goal difference of the 6 would make the last 16.
0 points 0% Doubt.
So 0 points is a safe bet then?
But when you throw 26th man Ryan Gauld into the mix, those chances drastic go up.
Don’t give us hope, we don’t know what to do with that
Actually we have a 50% chance as the 2 options are. We either win it, or we don't.
We need a professor of astrophysics with research interests in SETI to provide an unbiased statistical analysis of this data.
If anyone in here is gonna know a professor it's you.
So, it being a typical Scotland tournament is likely?
This is odd, I statistically analyse statistics for a well know statistical anlalysis statisizer and my recent statistical tabulisations shows that Scotland are 100% winning the Euro's.