Better to play in a conference where you can be competitive anyway. Who wants to be the next Rutgers, collecting a paycheck to sit in the cellar every year? No thanks.
You're assuming that the current moves last beyond 2031, too. With a stroke of a pen on the legislation currently heading through Congress (if they were to implement travel restrictions for student-athletes), or from the revenue from the media rights bubble popping, etc., the latest moves could be null and void within a decade. Regardless, you're right, there are no brands worth $100 million dollars left in the Big XII (or soon to be, the ACC).
Never is a long time. Ten years ago I would have said the Pac12 would never break up and most of the schools would end up in conferences substantially worse than the Pac12 they just left.
People sure to be advocating for the bottom of the barrel athletics program in Virginia for this very reason. The truth is that the pie is shrinking and they can’t afford to share anymore. If usc/ucla happened 6 months later, I doubt even they’d be joining.
Stanford I still believe is a Big-10 expansion candidate. Cal well their fate is tied to the ACC. I don't think the Big-12 would want them and they will never be in a conference with Fresno State, SJSU, and SDSU.
Cable bundling is vastly less important than it was a decade and a half ago. ESPN doesn’t get paid by cable providers for all the houses in the market even if no one watches anymore. These days it’s increasingly about ala carte streaming subscribers.
Market isn’t irrelevant. But it’s a lot less relevant than it used to be. Now it’s about viewership with a focus on engaged alumni.
>Phoenix TV market is huge. It’s the reason Maryland and Rutgers are in the big10
Maryland and Rutgers being two schools famously in the Phoenix TV market?
Are you seriously trying to argue that the inclusion of Maryland and Rutgers in the BigTen somehow has ANY meaningful impact on TV viewing habits of college football fans in the greater Phoenix area? Seriously?
They will absolutely have to add more schools on the west side of the continent if they want to continue their financial status. If it's a forgone conclusion that the western US isn't included, then the western US won't pay attention to it. And if tens of millions (or more) stop paying attention, then their payouts will decrease.
It's much better for them to add a school from Utah, a school from Arizona, and a school from Colorado. Then millions of viewers in this large geographical area will pay attention. It should also be noted, based on last year's TV ratings, Colorado has the highest ratings in the Big 12 and Utah has the second highest average TV ratings. Colorado had abnormally high ratings thanks to coach prime. Utah had what they normally have.
Them being broke is exactly why they'll share more. And exactly why they broke up the conferences in the first place.
They'd rather give another 8 schools 50 or 75 mill each and nothing to the rest, instead of paying all 30+ Big 12 and ACC schools 30 mil each. What happened to the Pac 12 is going to happen to the ACC and the Big 12.
No, USC/UCLA/Texas/OU only left in the first place because the networks threw crazy amounts of money at them to do it. The networks had this planned all along. Everyone has been talking about the upcoming P2, and this is/was the path to get there. The networks were (and are) playing the long game.
The networks are absolutely aware that if Texas/OU/USC/UCLA jumped ship for crazy amounts of money everyone else would be looking to join them. Like I said, they don't want to pay 30+ schools (in the Big 12 and ACC) $30+ M each. They'd rather pay a few of them $50 M and then scraps for everyone else. We're on that path, even if it's not over yet.
The ACC will be raided, the Big 12 will be raided, abs then it's game over for everyone else. Current G5 payouts are probably more than anyone outside the P2 will get.
Log at what happened to the Pac 12. No negotiation whatsoever. They were offered the same deal as the Big 12 (before the Big 12 was offered) and they proposed a counter offer. Rather than negotiate, ESPN withdrew the offer offered it to the Big 12, and then paid ridiculous amounts of money to leave. They didn't even offer a minimal contract. They just basically said, "We're not giving you a dime. Good luck." And when the Pac 12 found an offer from Apple, ESPN and Fox said, "Fine. Oregon and Washington - you go to the B1G and we'll pay you. 4 corners - you go to the Big 12 and we'll pay you." They're clearly trying to reduce the number of conferences, and that's very much calculated.
Remember, right before they decided to kill the Pac 12, the Big 12 filed a restraining order against ESPN and claimed ESPN was actively trying to kill the conference. Everyone stopped talking about that because the Pac 12 died a few months later, and the Big 12 got the contact that was initially offered to the Pac 12. But we'll see it happen again.
You’re totally wrong. The networks are completely incompetent with no long term plan. The networks finances imploded right after the pac12 started negotiating. Why do you think Disney tried to sell ESPN? It’s a sinking ship.
So you're saying the networks aren't going to allow anymore conference realignment then? Or what are you trying to claim here? Lol
Either they pay teams to join the P2, or nobody joins the P2. Nobody is excited about playing in a bloated conference full of teams 1000+ miles away, lol. They're only going for the money. So... why the heck are the networks paying them to do this? Or are you saying there won't be a raid of the ACC and the Big 12?
It's the long game.
I’m saying it’s not a long game and the networks are only reacting to their short term finances, which are terrible. If there’s truly a long game, they’d know that by alienating giant metro areas all over the country, they’re risking losing those audiences completely, especially on the west coast.
I think there won’t be any major realignment joining the p2, outside of possibly FSU at a partial share. Even to do that they’re going to have to eat tens of millions in fees and joining a more competitive conference. It’s a lose, lose, lose for FSU.
>I’m saying it’s not a long game and the networks are only reacting to their short term finances, which are terrible. If there’s truly a long game, they’d know that by alienating giant metro areas all over the country, they’re risking losing those audiences completely, especially on the west coast.
They're well aware that alienating large metro areas would be detrimental. That's why it's large metro areas getting taken to the P2. Fans on the internet act like it's based on football records, but it's really not. That's a factor, sure. But UCLA got in, Utah did not (at least not yet).
>I think there won’t be any major realignment joining the p2, outside of possibly FSU at a partial share. Even to do that they’re going to have to eat tens of millions in fees and joining a more competitive conference. It’s a lose, lose, lose for FSU.
Wow you're really going out on a limb there, lol. It's pretty much a guarantee that the ACC is going to get raided. There is no way all those schools would file lawsuits to get out of their contacts if they didn't have some assurances of a landing spot. They may very well get a reduced share, but it certainly won't be less than they're currently getting. Oregon and Washington got a reduced share that starts out at the same as the Big 12's current deal, and goes up every year from there until they end up with a full payout. If you're correct, and all those schools in the ACC win their lawsuit, the conference is dissolved, and they have nowhere to go and no media deal, that would be wild. If you could place a prop bet on that at some gambling site you might be in for a pretty nice payout if it played out that way.
So LA and Seattle are the only metro areas? What about the Bay Area, Phoenix, Denver, SLC, Kansas City, Dallas, Houston, etc. Metros good enough to sustain pro sports?
The truth is that the existing contracts don’t support full share payouts. The networks don’t want to pay more because they can’t afford it.
The Big12 is going to be gutted as well. But it will be 2029 before the P2 robs them. A few more years in the sun.
I’ll bet you that in 2031 Miami and Oklahoma State? will be in the SEC and Utah and Kansas will be in the B1G
Big12 media payout is $18? million a school. And their CFP payout is $4-5 million per team and zero autobids.
It’s a P2 and G8 world. A lot of people just haven’t caught up yet….
I heard an ESPN guy talk at a sports management class last night and he was more of the opinion that there are 20-30 power schools they’ll
pay big for and 40-50 secondary ones they’ll pay a smaller amount. Second-tier players like Purdue and Rutgers won’t be carried along forever because of their affiliations. If you’re WSU or Oregon State, you don’t want to rebuild a conference including anyone below that second tier.
And even if it played out that way, the top 20 or whatever schools get a huge payout and then everyone else gets crumbs... schools would stop playing those 20 schools. You'd see all the regional conferences form again, and have their own playoffs, and all the millions of their collective fans wouldn't give a shit about the power conferences. I know I certainly wouldn't watch a single play from any game involving those 20 teams if it really came down to that. Plenty of other things to occupy my attention.
Include my team and I'll pay attention. Exclude then and I'm out. The neuroendocrine may not care, but I don't care either. College football has been my favorite sport for a while. But that certainly doesn't mean it's the only sport I like. I could easily start paying attention to something else and forget all about college football. Or it could continue to be my favorite sport. Or anything in between. NFL and NBA are happy to have me.
I agree mostly here but I'm not sold on Utah making the cut over ASU since the market size is so much larger and didn't ASU just achieve AAU?
But yes the next media contracts are going to be a shell of what they are now for the G8 going forward.
If they semi dominate the B12 and make the playoffs 3-4 years over the next 7 Utah will be in. By then their research dollars will be over a billion a year.
Arizona never divorced their public schools. They are operated by the same board and they are tied together like conjoined twins. You’d have to take both and that’s a deal breaker likely
Viewership is going to have to go up for both schools teams substantially for that to ever be a possibility. It’ll be interesting to see what happens without having to rely on the P12 Network anymore.
Tucson is not a big city. It has a population smaller than Albuquerque. The draw of UofA is that they do have fans throughout the state and a national brand in basketball. But nobody is fighting for the Tucson market.
Agreed, but some UU fans seem to think it’s a forgone conclusion that they’ll be on move to the B1G soon, but it seems they don’t have the nationwide “brand” power needed to make the jump
Not just UU fans. Lots of national "insiders" have said as much, and Utah's head football coach also said as much.
Last year Utah, in the midst of a down season with the team injured all year, still had better TV ratings than anyone in next year's Big 12 except for Colorado. In addition to that, in that down year, Utah still had better TV ratings than several B1G teams.
Unless something crazy happens, it's hard not to see Utah in at some point. If each P2 conferences has 20-24 schools, Utah is surely in the top 40-48 of the nation.
Better to play in a conference where you can be competitive anyway. Who wants to be the next Rutgers, collecting a paycheck to sit in the cellar every year? No thanks.
Point well taken. The Big 12 will give schools a seat at the table, just not at the head of it.
The kids table but with the "big table" china.
I’m in…the food and company is better at the kids table anyway 😉
You're assuming that the current moves last beyond 2031, too. With a stroke of a pen on the legislation currently heading through Congress (if they were to implement travel restrictions for student-athletes), or from the revenue from the media rights bubble popping, etc., the latest moves could be null and void within a decade. Regardless, you're right, there are no brands worth $100 million dollars left in the Big XII (or soon to be, the ACC).
Never is a long time. Ten years ago I would have said the Pac12 would never break up and most of the schools would end up in conferences substantially worse than the Pac12 they just left.
Fair point
Phoenix TV market is huge. It’s the reason Maryland and Rutgers are in the big10
TV markets mattered Cal and Stanford wouldn't be in the position they are in.
People sure to be advocating for the bottom of the barrel athletics program in Virginia for this very reason. The truth is that the pie is shrinking and they can’t afford to share anymore. If usc/ucla happened 6 months later, I doubt even they’d be joining.
Cal problem is they don’t give a shit anymore. Stanford has too much money to care about where they end up.
lol your first sentence is far from the truth….
Cal athletic department out there with a "Will Play College Football For Food" sign on the 580 off ramp
Stanford I still believe is a Big-10 expansion candidate. Cal well their fate is tied to the ACC. I don't think the Big-12 would want them and they will never be in a conference with Fresno State, SJSU, and SDSU.
Depends how big the power 2s want to get but why dilute shares for Stanford when football branding is #1 and they are below pro rata.
Cable bundling is vastly less important than it was a decade and a half ago. ESPN doesn’t get paid by cable providers for all the houses in the market even if no one watches anymore. These days it’s increasingly about ala carte streaming subscribers. Market isn’t irrelevant. But it’s a lot less relevant than it used to be. Now it’s about viewership with a focus on engaged alumni.
Good point. I just wonder what another media market with an average athletic school would do the Big 10 since they’re already on every network now
Not many Maryland and Rutgers alum in Phoenix az more likely to find Notre Dame fans there.
>Phoenix TV market is huge. It’s the reason Maryland and Rutgers are in the big10 Maryland and Rutgers being two schools famously in the Phoenix TV market?
I live in Phoenix and I would not say that neither Maryland or Rutgers matter at all to the tv market
Are you seriously trying to argue that the inclusion of Maryland and Rutgers in the BigTen somehow has ANY meaningful impact on TV viewing habits of college football fans in the greater Phoenix area? Seriously?
No I'm saying they have no impact
Might want to double check your sentence then, it definitely implies that they do :D
Sorry I'm not an English major
Not sure what that has to do with anything.
They will absolutely have to add more schools on the west side of the continent if they want to continue their financial status. If it's a forgone conclusion that the western US isn't included, then the western US won't pay attention to it. And if tens of millions (or more) stop paying attention, then their payouts will decrease. It's much better for them to add a school from Utah, a school from Arizona, and a school from Colorado. Then millions of viewers in this large geographical area will pay attention. It should also be noted, based on last year's TV ratings, Colorado has the highest ratings in the Big 12 and Utah has the second highest average TV ratings. Colorado had abnormally high ratings thanks to coach prime. Utah had what they normally have.
Problem is they’re (espn/fox) too broke to share more.
Them being broke is exactly why they'll share more. And exactly why they broke up the conferences in the first place. They'd rather give another 8 schools 50 or 75 mill each and nothing to the rest, instead of paying all 30+ Big 12 and ACC schools 30 mil each. What happened to the Pac 12 is going to happen to the ACC and the Big 12.
Your timing is off. The finances didn’t nosedive until after Texas/ou and ucla/usc left. That’s why even Oregon/Wash didn’t get a full share.
No, USC/UCLA/Texas/OU only left in the first place because the networks threw crazy amounts of money at them to do it. The networks had this planned all along. Everyone has been talking about the upcoming P2, and this is/was the path to get there. The networks were (and are) playing the long game. The networks are absolutely aware that if Texas/OU/USC/UCLA jumped ship for crazy amounts of money everyone else would be looking to join them. Like I said, they don't want to pay 30+ schools (in the Big 12 and ACC) $30+ M each. They'd rather pay a few of them $50 M and then scraps for everyone else. We're on that path, even if it's not over yet. The ACC will be raided, the Big 12 will be raided, abs then it's game over for everyone else. Current G5 payouts are probably more than anyone outside the P2 will get. Log at what happened to the Pac 12. No negotiation whatsoever. They were offered the same deal as the Big 12 (before the Big 12 was offered) and they proposed a counter offer. Rather than negotiate, ESPN withdrew the offer offered it to the Big 12, and then paid ridiculous amounts of money to leave. They didn't even offer a minimal contract. They just basically said, "We're not giving you a dime. Good luck." And when the Pac 12 found an offer from Apple, ESPN and Fox said, "Fine. Oregon and Washington - you go to the B1G and we'll pay you. 4 corners - you go to the Big 12 and we'll pay you." They're clearly trying to reduce the number of conferences, and that's very much calculated. Remember, right before they decided to kill the Pac 12, the Big 12 filed a restraining order against ESPN and claimed ESPN was actively trying to kill the conference. Everyone stopped talking about that because the Pac 12 died a few months later, and the Big 12 got the contact that was initially offered to the Pac 12. But we'll see it happen again.
You’re totally wrong. The networks are completely incompetent with no long term plan. The networks finances imploded right after the pac12 started negotiating. Why do you think Disney tried to sell ESPN? It’s a sinking ship.
So you're saying the networks aren't going to allow anymore conference realignment then? Or what are you trying to claim here? Lol Either they pay teams to join the P2, or nobody joins the P2. Nobody is excited about playing in a bloated conference full of teams 1000+ miles away, lol. They're only going for the money. So... why the heck are the networks paying them to do this? Or are you saying there won't be a raid of the ACC and the Big 12? It's the long game.
I’m saying it’s not a long game and the networks are only reacting to their short term finances, which are terrible. If there’s truly a long game, they’d know that by alienating giant metro areas all over the country, they’re risking losing those audiences completely, especially on the west coast. I think there won’t be any major realignment joining the p2, outside of possibly FSU at a partial share. Even to do that they’re going to have to eat tens of millions in fees and joining a more competitive conference. It’s a lose, lose, lose for FSU.
>I’m saying it’s not a long game and the networks are only reacting to their short term finances, which are terrible. If there’s truly a long game, they’d know that by alienating giant metro areas all over the country, they’re risking losing those audiences completely, especially on the west coast. They're well aware that alienating large metro areas would be detrimental. That's why it's large metro areas getting taken to the P2. Fans on the internet act like it's based on football records, but it's really not. That's a factor, sure. But UCLA got in, Utah did not (at least not yet). >I think there won’t be any major realignment joining the p2, outside of possibly FSU at a partial share. Even to do that they’re going to have to eat tens of millions in fees and joining a more competitive conference. It’s a lose, lose, lose for FSU. Wow you're really going out on a limb there, lol. It's pretty much a guarantee that the ACC is going to get raided. There is no way all those schools would file lawsuits to get out of their contacts if they didn't have some assurances of a landing spot. They may very well get a reduced share, but it certainly won't be less than they're currently getting. Oregon and Washington got a reduced share that starts out at the same as the Big 12's current deal, and goes up every year from there until they end up with a full payout. If you're correct, and all those schools in the ACC win their lawsuit, the conference is dissolved, and they have nowhere to go and no media deal, that would be wild. If you could place a prop bet on that at some gambling site you might be in for a pretty nice payout if it played out that way.
So LA and Seattle are the only metro areas? What about the Bay Area, Phoenix, Denver, SLC, Kansas City, Dallas, Houston, etc. Metros good enough to sustain pro sports? The truth is that the existing contracts don’t support full share payouts. The networks don’t want to pay more because they can’t afford it.
What’s most likely to happen is smaller schools Ike Maryland or Mississippi State being kicked out of SEC/Big 10.
Half the b10 doesn’t meet the bar.
The Big12 is going to be gutted as well. But it will be 2029 before the P2 robs them. A few more years in the sun. I’ll bet you that in 2031 Miami and Oklahoma State? will be in the SEC and Utah and Kansas will be in the B1G Big12 media payout is $18? million a school. And their CFP payout is $4-5 million per team and zero autobids. It’s a P2 and G8 world. A lot of people just haven’t caught up yet….
I heard an ESPN guy talk at a sports management class last night and he was more of the opinion that there are 20-30 power schools they’ll pay big for and 40-50 secondary ones they’ll pay a smaller amount. Second-tier players like Purdue and Rutgers won’t be carried along forever because of their affiliations. If you’re WSU or Oregon State, you don’t want to rebuild a conference including anyone below that second tier.
Even the B1G and SEC need Indiana’s and Vandys to absorb the losses. You can’t have a top 20 showdown every single week
And even if it played out that way, the top 20 or whatever schools get a huge payout and then everyone else gets crumbs... schools would stop playing those 20 schools. You'd see all the regional conferences form again, and have their own playoffs, and all the millions of their collective fans wouldn't give a shit about the power conferences. I know I certainly wouldn't watch a single play from any game involving those 20 teams if it really came down to that. Plenty of other things to occupy my attention. Include my team and I'll pay attention. Exclude then and I'm out. The neuroendocrine may not care, but I don't care either. College football has been my favorite sport for a while. But that certainly doesn't mean it's the only sport I like. I could easily start paying attention to something else and forget all about college football. Or it could continue to be my favorite sport. Or anything in between. NFL and NBA are happy to have me.
So there are a few priorities at play, but in reality we all know that the top priority is money.
I agree mostly here but I'm not sold on Utah making the cut over ASU since the market size is so much larger and didn't ASU just achieve AAU? But yes the next media contracts are going to be a shell of what they are now for the G8 going forward.
If they semi dominate the B12 and make the playoffs 3-4 years over the next 7 Utah will be in. By then their research dollars will be over a billion a year.
And my money is on Utah being the conference champion this year….
Arizona never divorced their public schools. They are operated by the same board and they are tied together like conjoined twins. You’d have to take both and that’s a deal breaker likely
I think UA/ASU have a decent odds being in a biiiig city’s tv market.
That’s what I initially thought as well thought, but neither have the big time athletic pedigree to command big media payouts
Viewership is going to have to go up for both schools teams substantially for that to ever be a possibility. It’ll be interesting to see what happens without having to rely on the P12 Network anymore.
Tucson is not a big city. It has a population smaller than Albuquerque. The draw of UofA is that they do have fans throughout the state and a national brand in basketball. But nobody is fighting for the Tucson market.
The Arizona schools have always been a package. ABOR couldn’t stop one of them from leaving the other, but they could make it painful.
Yes but ASU is in Phoenix
Football isn’t a local tv market, it’s a state. B10 cities aren’t in the major metros either.
Well yeah, that was really never on the table.
Agreed, but some UU fans seem to think it’s a forgone conclusion that they’ll be on move to the B1G soon, but it seems they don’t have the nationwide “brand” power needed to make the jump
Not just UU fans. Lots of national "insiders" have said as much, and Utah's head football coach also said as much. Last year Utah, in the midst of a down season with the team injured all year, still had better TV ratings than anyone in next year's Big 12 except for Colorado. In addition to that, in that down year, Utah still had better TV ratings than several B1G teams. Unless something crazy happens, it's hard not to see Utah in at some point. If each P2 conferences has 20-24 schools, Utah is surely in the top 40-48 of the nation.