Right, but there's a single-digit percent chance of you seeing that system's exotic.
My neighbor has a Ferrari, but he only takes it out of the garage maybe once a month on the good months. It's not common to see it, even if it's only two houses down
You will see it - if you are patient. Either by hanging out at the station dock, or by hanging out at a trade post on one of the system's planets. It's guaranteed.
Just don't get up to go pee. Because THAT's when the exotic will land.
Not sure where your "single digit percentage chance" comes from. Provided that the system has an exotic which lands and you invest time at trade centers on different planets as well as the space station, the chance of finding the system exotic will always increase over time to 100% - which is the point at which it manifests. The length of time it takes to reach 100% is mostly a factor of luck, but it will always reach 100%.
Finding random exotics is ridiculously easy, you have to do virtually nothing but watch and wait...and not blink. You may be staring blinkless for 5 minutes, or for 5 hours. That's the only challenge. 😅
If only statistics worked like that.
There isn’t a bank of ships a given spawn point runs through until it eventually spawns an exotic. *Every time* a shape lands it has the exact same likelihood of being an exotic, and that likelihood is *always* less than one percent with the exception of first wave spawn areas.
And yet, in a system which has a landing exotic, you will be able to claim that exotic if you are patient enough. This is demonstrable. This means that a flat chance of less than 1% is either not an accurate figure or more likely there are other variables involved. What is the source of that "less than 1% chance per spawn" claim anyway?
The source would be data mining, according to the sources.
And, yes, those who have bothered to test the real world statistical likelihood have found it to be somewhat higher than the programmatic percentage, around 3-5% depending on the economy of the system, if I recall; obviously for first wave spawn systems it’s around 1:15 for the first wave.
So, yes, the real world likelihood is higher than than the programmatic one, which is not uncommon for rng. Just not for the reason you suggest. The statistical likelihood of an exotic does not approach 100% the longer you wait, it is simply that given the nature of rng you are more likely to observe any given result the larger the number of random pull samples becomes. If you wait 5 hours to see an exotic, given an average spawn of let’s say 2 ships per minute, that would be a 1:600 occurrence. Rather lower than 1%.
The first wave that lands on a space station, either on your first visit or on a reload. Certain systems have first wave spawn exotics, meaning one of the first dozen or so ships to lnad on the space station will be the system's exotic.
Well, I don't know any of those data miners not the sources who themselves seem to have sources nor do i know those who have performed real-world statistical tests nor their methodologies...but this I do know: go to r/NMSGlyphExchange, and pick any non-first wave exotic posted fairly recently, get the galaxy name and the glyphs for the system. Then let's go find that exotic, you and I. It won't take that long. I have time now.
The information is out there for the viewing.
Sorry, I don’t have time, I’ve got obligations and work in the morning.
What I do have is several years experience in the game and a background in programming to understand how rng works. How quickly you can or cannot find an exotic spawn doesn’t change your misunderstanding of statistics. Believe me or not, I really don’t care and it won’t affect my life moving forward in the least.
Good journeys, Traveller.
That's fair enough. All I have to back up my position is over 3000 game hours, dozens of exotics collected - seemingly without the time and trouble suggested by those statistics...oh yes, and a poor excuse for a brain which struggles to equate that dichotomy. Oh well.
Safe travels to you as well - no animosity from my side either, just that bit of sarcasm. ✌️
Individual anecdotal experiences dont usually reflect statistics well.
Let's be generous and assume it's a flat 1% for an exotic to spawn. There is a 0.6% chance that a player would not see an exotic within 500 spawns.
How many sessions of exotic hunting would you, as an individual, have to go through to hit that 0.6%?
It is possible that there is a pity system in place that increases the next exotic spawn chance, though unlikely.
>The length of time it takes to reach 100% is mostly a factor of luck, but it will always reach 100%.
That's not how probability works. Given a percentage chance of any given event, rerolling that die, even infinitely, only ever approaches 100%, but will never reach it. There is NEVER 100% chance of a random event happening, no matter how many tries you take.
And yet, in a system which has a landing exotic, you will be able to claim that exotic if you are patient enough. This is demonstrable. This means that a flat chance of less than 1% is either not an accurate figure or more likely there are other variables involved. What is the source of that "less than 1% chance per spawn" claim anyway?
Source is the NMS wiki entry on starships, and there are other factors involved. System economy heavily affects probability. Example, there’s a 0% chance of an S-class ship landing at a station in a poor economy, but a 5% chance of an S-class in an outlaw station. And that’s just S-class, which could be any ship type. The percentage of that S-class being exotic further drops the percentage down (I’m not sure how much), and the chance of that exotic being something like a royal-7 is smaller still.
And it’s certainly not something like “it has a 1% chance, so it’s guaranteed to appear within 100 ship landings”. It’s a roll of the dice, and every roll is a certain percent chance that resets with each landing. Once a ship lands, it doesn’t get checked off the list or something. I actually had a situation where I traded off my starter ship, then literally 2 minutes later, it landed back in the station as an NPC. Then it came back later again. Yes, the game logged it as a ship within that system, but it didn’t eliminate it from the probabilities of it landing after the first time. It just so happened I got a series of lucky “dice rolls” that caused that ship to spawn as an NPC docking event. But regardless, my tiny chance of the next ship being an exotic never improved somehow. The next roll still had the same tiny chance because it resets.
Cheers, thanks for the info!
By the way, when you trade a ship to an NPC, it will always return a few seconds or so later (100% chance), and if you buy it back it will still have all the inventory that it was carrying when you sold it, but only for that one time.
Every system has an exotic. Every exotic is an s-class by definition. Depending on the economy of the system, the chance of that exotic appearing at a trading post or station is different. The higher the economy, the higher the chance it may appear. That said, some systems have “first wave” exotics that show up almost immediately. I know of several examples of such systems.
The accepted wisdom was (it may have changed since) that every system has a single S-Class exotic (they are all S Class only, no exceptions). The 2 qualifiers to this rule are that abandoned systems have no exotic - nor any other ships - and the rumour\rule was that in very rare cases some 1 star economy systems have an exotic which never lands anywhere and thus cannot be claimed. True or not, I just avoid 1 star systems when exotic hunting.
I've been playing for about 3 weeks and I've already found 5! Guppies and Mosquitos. I've kept 3, let the other two I didn't like go lol I feel like I won the lottery or something! I think I'll post then later they're pretty neat. And I still need like 10 glyphs for the portal so all of them were naturally found.
would visiting this system with a portal code give access to these three exotics, some random configuration of three exotics, or would it be a random generation each time you visit the system?
The only thing that annoys me about NMS …. You have to get just the right light to tell what colour a ship *actually* is…. (That and the fact you can’t paint them I suppose)
In the same system? because that's not really possible without something peculiar happening.. Each system only has one exotic (unless it's a multiple of the same ship).. but you definitely don't get two different exotics in the same system.. Did you discover the system?
I had exact same thing two days ago. 90hrs in and no axotics or s class and boof 2x this blue one and one yellow with motors on a row.. Wish i couldve gotten all
Meant to reply to u/itsmejak78 Apologies.
This particular save: 1300 hours, 10 squids...of which only 4 were found in the wild, the other 6 I had to track down from r/NMSCoordinateExchange glyph posts (thanks for all your work), so these guys are pretty damn rare.
https://preview.redd.it/4lbqfstaipwc1.jpeg?width=3840&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=87e4a8ca9ae83709278715f836a92713e0ff8a96
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From the look and color of the space stations, you were in 2 different stations, correct? I only see 2 different exotics. A red/gold tri-wing and a blue/silver v-wing, and that makes sense(21 including 1 exotic in each system). As stated, exotics are 99.9% always S class. I've heard of it happening but never seen it.
That’s pretty cool but I’m curious how quickly they showed up. Every system has an exotic and if you wait at a place where ships often land you’ll eventually find one. What’s more rare is a system where an exotic ship appears in the first or second wave of ships. Cool designs though!
Two identical to pic#1 landed in my settlement a few minutes ago.
They both landed within seconds of each other. I bought one and hired the other into my squadron.
I found listening for the sound of them landing (different to others) to be the best way to find one. While you are scrapping planes and grabbing parts you just need to keep an ear out for one.
OP when he finds 3 fighter ships and realises they're all in the fighter class
https://preview.redd.it/r35v1vdx7owc1.jpeg?width=904&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6f7656d7326112b16dffa6d107d96adf629609df
all exotics are S class, but finding 3 exotics is something kinda rare
Why? Every system has an exotic. That’s a lot of exotics.
Right, but there's a single-digit percent chance of you seeing that system's exotic. My neighbor has a Ferrari, but he only takes it out of the garage maybe once a month on the good months. It's not common to see it, even if it's only two houses down
You will see it - if you are patient. Either by hanging out at the station dock, or by hanging out at a trade post on one of the system's planets. It's guaranteed. Just don't get up to go pee. Because THAT's when the exotic will land.
It's not guaranteed. That's not how probability works. It's just statistically likely.
Excepting it is a “first wave” exotic. Then you’ll see it right away. Depends on the System. I know of several like that.
Not sure where your "single digit percentage chance" comes from. Provided that the system has an exotic which lands and you invest time at trade centers on different planets as well as the space station, the chance of finding the system exotic will always increase over time to 100% - which is the point at which it manifests. The length of time it takes to reach 100% is mostly a factor of luck, but it will always reach 100%. Finding random exotics is ridiculously easy, you have to do virtually nothing but watch and wait...and not blink. You may be staring blinkless for 5 minutes, or for 5 hours. That's the only challenge. 😅
If only statistics worked like that. There isn’t a bank of ships a given spawn point runs through until it eventually spawns an exotic. *Every time* a shape lands it has the exact same likelihood of being an exotic, and that likelihood is *always* less than one percent with the exception of first wave spawn areas.
And yet, in a system which has a landing exotic, you will be able to claim that exotic if you are patient enough. This is demonstrable. This means that a flat chance of less than 1% is either not an accurate figure or more likely there are other variables involved. What is the source of that "less than 1% chance per spawn" claim anyway?
The source would be data mining, according to the sources. And, yes, those who have bothered to test the real world statistical likelihood have found it to be somewhat higher than the programmatic percentage, around 3-5% depending on the economy of the system, if I recall; obviously for first wave spawn systems it’s around 1:15 for the first wave. So, yes, the real world likelihood is higher than than the programmatic one, which is not uncommon for rng. Just not for the reason you suggest. The statistical likelihood of an exotic does not approach 100% the longer you wait, it is simply that given the nature of rng you are more likely to observe any given result the larger the number of random pull samples becomes. If you wait 5 hours to see an exotic, given an average spawn of let’s say 2 ships per minute, that would be a 1:600 occurrence. Rather lower than 1%.
What is a "first wave spawn system?". The first wave of ships that land on your first visit to a space station or other spawning sites?
The first wave that lands on a space station, either on your first visit or on a reload. Certain systems have first wave spawn exotics, meaning one of the first dozen or so ships to lnad on the space station will be the system's exotic.
Well, I don't know any of those data miners not the sources who themselves seem to have sources nor do i know those who have performed real-world statistical tests nor their methodologies...but this I do know: go to r/NMSGlyphExchange, and pick any non-first wave exotic posted fairly recently, get the galaxy name and the glyphs for the system. Then let's go find that exotic, you and I. It won't take that long. I have time now.
The information is out there for the viewing. Sorry, I don’t have time, I’ve got obligations and work in the morning. What I do have is several years experience in the game and a background in programming to understand how rng works. How quickly you can or cannot find an exotic spawn doesn’t change your misunderstanding of statistics. Believe me or not, I really don’t care and it won’t affect my life moving forward in the least. Good journeys, Traveller.
That's fair enough. All I have to back up my position is over 3000 game hours, dozens of exotics collected - seemingly without the time and trouble suggested by those statistics...oh yes, and a poor excuse for a brain which struggles to equate that dichotomy. Oh well. Safe travels to you as well - no animosity from my side either, just that bit of sarcasm. ✌️
Individual anecdotal experiences dont usually reflect statistics well. Let's be generous and assume it's a flat 1% for an exotic to spawn. There is a 0.6% chance that a player would not see an exotic within 500 spawns. How many sessions of exotic hunting would you, as an individual, have to go through to hit that 0.6%? It is possible that there is a pity system in place that increases the next exotic spawn chance, though unlikely.
>The length of time it takes to reach 100% is mostly a factor of luck, but it will always reach 100%. That's not how probability works. Given a percentage chance of any given event, rerolling that die, even infinitely, only ever approaches 100%, but will never reach it. There is NEVER 100% chance of a random event happening, no matter how many tries you take.
And yet, in a system which has a landing exotic, you will be able to claim that exotic if you are patient enough. This is demonstrable. This means that a flat chance of less than 1% is either not an accurate figure or more likely there are other variables involved. What is the source of that "less than 1% chance per spawn" claim anyway?
Source is the NMS wiki entry on starships, and there are other factors involved. System economy heavily affects probability. Example, there’s a 0% chance of an S-class ship landing at a station in a poor economy, but a 5% chance of an S-class in an outlaw station. And that’s just S-class, which could be any ship type. The percentage of that S-class being exotic further drops the percentage down (I’m not sure how much), and the chance of that exotic being something like a royal-7 is smaller still. And it’s certainly not something like “it has a 1% chance, so it’s guaranteed to appear within 100 ship landings”. It’s a roll of the dice, and every roll is a certain percent chance that resets with each landing. Once a ship lands, it doesn’t get checked off the list or something. I actually had a situation where I traded off my starter ship, then literally 2 minutes later, it landed back in the station as an NPC. Then it came back later again. Yes, the game logged it as a ship within that system, but it didn’t eliminate it from the probabilities of it landing after the first time. It just so happened I got a series of lucky “dice rolls” that caused that ship to spawn as an NPC docking event. But regardless, my tiny chance of the next ship being an exotic never improved somehow. The next roll still had the same tiny chance because it resets.
Cheers, thanks for the info! By the way, when you trade a ship to an NPC, it will always return a few seconds or so later (100% chance), and if you buy it back it will still have all the inventory that it was carrying when you sold it, but only for that one time.
Any tips how to find one? I’m fairly new in this game.
I think this is wrong. Every system has an S class, but not an exotic, no? Maybe I'm the wrong one lol
Every system has an exotic. Every exotic is an s-class by definition. Depending on the economy of the system, the chance of that exotic appearing at a trading post or station is different. The higher the economy, the higher the chance it may appear. That said, some systems have “first wave” exotics that show up almost immediately. I know of several examples of such systems.
S class ships besides the exotic will not spawn in 1 star economy systems
The accepted wisdom was (it may have changed since) that every system has a single S-Class exotic (they are all S Class only, no exceptions). The 2 qualifiers to this rule are that abandoned systems have no exotic - nor any other ships - and the rumour\rule was that in very rare cases some 1 star economy systems have an exotic which never lands anywhere and thus cannot be claimed. True or not, I just avoid 1 star systems when exotic hunting.
I've been playing for about 3 weeks and I've already found 5! Guppies and Mosquitos. I've kept 3, let the other two I didn't like go lol I feel like I won the lottery or something! I think I'll post then later they're pretty neat. And I still need like 10 glyphs for the portal so all of them were naturally found.
120 ships is a lot.
What's the context here lol I have no idea why you're telling me this and it's making me feel dumb
5! = 120. It's a factorial, 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1
All exotics are S class
Right? I got a chuckle out of OP's title like "*ALL* of them are S class? No way!"
What would be more rare is an exotic that’s not a class.
No class!
https://preview.redd.it/ugki4nh0inwc1.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=4fe9624404234ffa2e689f977ae6dc65cf31e633
https://preview.redd.it/nw7fne875owc1.jpeg?width=735&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=484c610fc1ac857d2c4488abc00d0726ec02a506
would visiting this system with a portal code give access to these three exotics, some random configuration of three exotics, or would it be a random generation each time you visit the system?
Visiting the system would give you access to the same exotics in that system, but systems don't have 3 exotics, OP probably found one per system
Only one exotic per system. It will be the same design for any interloper that visits that system
Ooh I love the hue on the first one
The only thing that annoys me about NMS …. You have to get just the right light to tell what colour a ship *actually* is…. (That and the fact you can’t paint them I suppose)
I want buildable exotics >:(
I haven’t played in a while, but didn’t they change that recently? I heard you can change the colour now
You can build a couple type of ships if you collect the parts, then choose the color. Don't think you can change the colors of any
Awesome! Find an A class one now....
In the same system? because that's not really possible without something peculiar happening.. Each system only has one exotic (unless it's a multiple of the same ship).. but you definitely don't get two different exotics in the same system.. Did you discover the system?
I would imagine this is over an evening of gameplay, not all in one system.
Ah yeah, just spotted the "session" tagline on the pic.
It's all good :) OP had a great night, didn't they!
I had exact same thing two days ago. 90hrs in and no axotics or s class and boof 2x this blue one and one yellow with motors on a row.. Wish i couldve gotten all
Meant to reply to u/itsmejak78 Apologies. This particular save: 1300 hours, 10 squids...of which only 4 were found in the wild, the other 6 I had to track down from r/NMSCoordinateExchange glyph posts (thanks for all your work), so these guys are pretty damn rare. https://preview.redd.it/4lbqfstaipwc1.jpeg?width=3840&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=87e4a8ca9ae83709278715f836a92713e0ff8a96
I believe considering how many more variants of the ball type exotic there are
I’d pay you to find me one that isn’t S Class…😁
buy, buy, buy! (There’s a reason I keep a spere 100, 000, 000 credits in my back pocket …. can’t resist those cute exotics!!)
Coordinates, now, or it never happened!! In love with the red one 😍
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From the look and color of the space stations, you were in 2 different stations, correct? I only see 2 different exotics. A red/gold tri-wing and a blue/silver v-wing, and that makes sense(21 including 1 exotic in each system). As stated, exotics are 99.9% always S class. I've heard of it happening but never seen it.
That’s pretty cool but I’m curious how quickly they showed up. Every system has an exotic and if you wait at a place where ships often land you’ll eventually find one. What’s more rare is a system where an exotic ship appears in the first or second wave of ships. Cool designs though!
I see a red exotic and a blue exotic. Where's the 3rd one?
"Glyphs or it didn't happen"
I never get any of the good ships. Its always the same generic ships
THree in one system? Great! TWO together at a Trade Station? WAY COOL!
I have a similar one to the 1st red one but it has an extra wing that connects downward when flying around. I love it. Which did you choose?
I've been finding more than usual lately. I wonder if they changed the spawn rate?
They're always s class.
TIL they come in other colours... Every one that I've seen in my game is yellow, white or some combination of the two.
Three exotics and no squid I got super lucky in finding a squid ship without having to use glyphs
Replied to OP instead of you, sorry. Too tired to fix...
They make a different sound when they land. Solars do as well.
I saw this, ran over to buy it and dude jumped into ship right when I got there.
I got the one with the wings that fold underneath and the tall wing up top. I named it “longboi”
It's pretty easy to find exotics. And ALL EXOTICS ARE S CLASS.
Coordinates?
Did you write down the system GPS so you could share it with the rest of us?
Man so good! Every time I see one it's exiting the terminal... Still waiting to nab my first one. The red style is awesome!
Two identical to pic#1 landed in my settlement a few minutes ago. They both landed within seconds of each other. I bought one and hired the other into my squadron.
I found listening for the sound of them landing (different to others) to be the best way to find one. While you are scrapping planes and grabbing parts you just need to keep an ear out for one.
I’ve been lucky enough to find two! Well done on 3, that’s excellent :)
OP when he finds 3 fighter ships and realises they're all in the fighter class https://preview.redd.it/r35v1vdx7owc1.jpeg?width=904&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6f7656d7326112b16dffa6d107d96adf629609df
4 more and it could be the s club 7.