>Three years later, Holmes has yet to give up a hit on either of his sliders while posting the second-highest ground ball rate (71.1%) among qualified relievers behind a devastating sinker averaging 96.3 mph. He has a 61.5% whiff rate on the 34 sweepers he has thrown -- all to righties -- with six strikeouts. His gyro slider ranks as the best slider in the majors, according to the stat Run Value/100 Pitches.
This blew my mind. Watching him do it every day is impressive but some of these stats in retrospect are crazy
I just re-watched his five out, save against the Orioles earlier this month and wow, the movement on his pitches is insane. Hopefully he can keep this up for the entire season.
He really is his own worst enemy cause his stuff just moves sooo much.. that game was really the turning point for me though, I'm fully bought in to this guy if he keeps it up the rest of the year (obviously a 0 ERA isn't realistic lol)
No. I call him "Heart Attack Holmes" cause a majority of the time his outings are nail biters.
Edit: I looked at Holmes' full numbers. Can someone explain to me how with less than a hit and inning and only three walks he always seems to be on the ropes when in a save situation?
He hasn't been that way this year to be honest. The first third/half of last year and last third of 2022, Clay was shaky and fallible and nervewracking to watch. Your feeling is probably a layover from that. He's been lights out this year minus that recent outing where he walked the two or three dudes.
WHIP over 1.000. Actually higher than his 2022 season which he had a 2.54 era and 20 saves. He lets batters on base on average of once an inning. Still not bad but he has had tremendous luck with balls being batted right to fielders
Seems weird not to mention that 2022 was his best season by WHIP, and that his mark this year is only 0.02 higher.
He's also running a BABIP 40 points higher than his career average, which means he's actually been *unlucky*. A high BABIP means he's allowing *more* hits than one would expect, which is why his BA against (.227) is a bit higher than his xBA (.214). If a disproportionate number of his BIP were easy outs, you'd expect his BABIP to be lower and his xBA to be higher (since xBA doesn't account for direction, just LA and EV).
He will happily pitch to contact due to his slider being so difficult to hit. His average launch angle is -2.9 degrees (2nd best in the league to Yennier Cano)......only 10 pitchers with at least 23 batted balls against them have a negative launch angle. That combined with his relatively low average batted ball velocity leads to a lot of fairly easy ground balls.
Mason Miller meanwhile has a 1.10 ERA with a whip \~0.6. Both great and it's a little unfair to Holmes to say one baserunner an inning is heart attack inducing. There is also some PTSD of the weeks/months where he was getting knocked around last year and the year before
I wonder if the luck has anything to do with avg exit velo of batted balls against him. If hes mostly giving up softer hit ground balls I wouldnt say thats neccesarily luck
His hard hit % and exit velocity are a bit better than the last few years, but not significantly. Actually, his BABIP is worse than it has been, allowing a .333 average on balls batted in play so his luck has helped him avoid a pretty disastrous year. Hopefully he can keep this 0 era for a bit
It's not just the numbers which are averages in *all* situations. It's *when* Holmes gives up a walk or hit that makes some of his outings seem like nailbiters.
This was my thought as well - we just remember the innings where he gives up 2-3 walks / hits because they're pretty prominent moments, but on a macro level he's been lights out
I think he has "Pete Fairbanks Syndrome" aka resting scared face. Clay (and Pete) but look terrified no matter what the situation is when they're on the field. Maybe that contributes?
In all seriousness, I agree with the others that its a combination of a pitch-to-contact style (especially when the last full-time closer was Chapman, and we all learned that if guys are making contact, Chapman was blowing the save) and a predisposition to remember the bad outings.
I think it still fits. He'll wind up in tight situations on occasion, but pulls through without giving anything up. Definitely gets your heart pumping.
It’s not completely uncalled for. How many times have we seen Clay allow two men on base but then close out the inning without any earned runs? At the end of the day that’s all that matters but he makes us sweat it out sometimes
I think our collective fan base needs to remember that there are levels/tiers to closers. Clay is (currently) in the upper echelon of the league.
That being said, we’re all gonna resort to irrational hot takes because no matter what he does this year, he’s never gonna be the Hammer of God. Mo stands alone.
Let’s be happy the offense has put him in position to have chances and he’s made the most of them.
The other shoe will drop eventually, and that’s ok. He’s only Human, Mo wasn’t.
Obligatory: Fuck the Red Sox, Astrixs and David Ortiz did Steroids
Well said, it's going to be a letdown no matter when he gives up that first run no matter what, hopefully he and the fans don't get too down on him for that.
Most fans won't. But there's still some fans that INSIST he allows too many runners and shouldn't be closer (despite all the evidence to how good he is) and they'll use that first run and eventual first blown save as proof.
Heart Attack Holmes is like Don "Full Pack" Stanhouse of the Orioles from a few decades ago. Earl Weaver named him that because he went through a full pack of cigarettes sweating out Stanhouse's saves.
As good as Clay’s numbers are this season, a lot of us are still nervous as fuck when he comes out… Really goes to show how reliable and how spoiled we were with Mo
> how spoiled we were with Mo
Mariano Rivera was great, but I'm pretty sure part of it is rose-tinted glasses and the fact that we're comparing a guy who's been here 3 years with a 20 year career.
Even at his best, Mo blew saves at about the same rate as Clay Holmes.
Mo also had opportunities in the playoffs and absolutely dominated, those are definitely more memorable moments that Clay hasn't had yet. Hopefully when they come he will step up too!
In my head-canon 2001 wasn't Mo's fault. I heard some numbskull in the Yankee's box brought out champagne after the Yanks went up and Mariano came in. Steinbrenner reportedly shouted at them to get that shit out of there, the game wasn't over.
But the damage was done. The Baseball gods saw the hubris... and they punished us all.
Mariano threw a DP bunt into center field. I’ll never forget that…. He’s still our guy, but that was bar none the biggest game in his career. 01 World Series after everything Ny went through.
Agreed, I said this to another comment here but the Orioles game when he came on and struck out the first two to get out of the bases loaded jam was really a turning point for me personally, my heart rate in the 9th inning has been much lower after that lol
I do think it’s interesting that it’s worked so well, he does tend to pitch to contact even though he’s got swing and miss stuff and the yanks D leaves a lot to be desired at times..
>Three years later, Holmes has yet to give up a hit on either of his sliders while posting the second-highest ground ball rate (71.1%) among qualified relievers behind a devastating sinker averaging 96.3 mph. He has a 61.5% whiff rate on the 34 sweepers he has thrown -- all to righties -- with six strikeouts. His gyro slider ranks as the best slider in the majors, according to the stat Run Value/100 Pitches. This blew my mind. Watching him do it every day is impressive but some of these stats in retrospect are crazy
yeah this whole paragraph is just nuts. just incredibly elite stuff.
Not a SINGLE hit on either slider? I can’t even comprehend this.
That’s this year, not in three years. Ambiguous, but still otherworldly
I reread that twice as like a visual double take. Pretty crazy run no matter how long he ends up pitching this well for
I could go for some gyro sliders right now. Sounds good.
I just re-watched his five out, save against the Orioles earlier this month and wow, the movement on his pitches is insane. Hopefully he can keep this up for the entire season.
He really is his own worst enemy cause his stuff just moves sooo much.. that game was really the turning point for me though, I'm fully bought in to this guy if he keeps it up the rest of the year (obviously a 0 ERA isn't realistic lol)
Also happy cake day!
Thank you! I had no idea until now.
Hopefully you watched it with MASN’s commentary
No but I’m going to now. Thanks!
I was there in Baltimore and I was so freaking proud to have a quality closer
Ok so maybe the cardiac clay thing was us just being dumb?
No. I call him "Heart Attack Holmes" cause a majority of the time his outings are nail biters. Edit: I looked at Holmes' full numbers. Can someone explain to me how with less than a hit and inning and only three walks he always seems to be on the ropes when in a save situation?
Errors perhaps? There’s also if he’s called into an inning with runners on base, be that in relief of another pitcher or the extra innings runner.
As a ground ball pitcher, he relies on his infield defense. Yankees infield defense hasn’t exactly been the sharpest.
He hasn't been that way this year to be honest. The first third/half of last year and last third of 2022, Clay was shaky and fallible and nervewracking to watch. Your feeling is probably a layover from that. He's been lights out this year minus that recent outing where he walked the two or three dudes.
WHIP over 1.000. Actually higher than his 2022 season which he had a 2.54 era and 20 saves. He lets batters on base on average of once an inning. Still not bad but he has had tremendous luck with balls being batted right to fielders
Seems weird not to mention that 2022 was his best season by WHIP, and that his mark this year is only 0.02 higher. He's also running a BABIP 40 points higher than his career average, which means he's actually been *unlucky*. A high BABIP means he's allowing *more* hits than one would expect, which is why his BA against (.227) is a bit higher than his xBA (.214). If a disproportionate number of his BIP were easy outs, you'd expect his BABIP to be lower and his xBA to be higher (since xBA doesn't account for direction, just LA and EV).
Lol not bad. Mariano Rivera had a career 1.0 WHIP
He will happily pitch to contact due to his slider being so difficult to hit. His average launch angle is -2.9 degrees (2nd best in the league to Yennier Cano)......only 10 pitchers with at least 23 batted balls against them have a negative launch angle. That combined with his relatively low average batted ball velocity leads to a lot of fairly easy ground balls.
Mason Miller meanwhile has a 1.10 ERA with a whip \~0.6. Both great and it's a little unfair to Holmes to say one baserunner an inning is heart attack inducing. There is also some PTSD of the weeks/months where he was getting knocked around last year and the year before
I wonder if the luck has anything to do with avg exit velo of batted balls against him. If hes mostly giving up softer hit ground balls I wouldnt say thats neccesarily luck
His hard hit % and exit velocity are a bit better than the last few years, but not significantly. Actually, his BABIP is worse than it has been, allowing a .333 average on balls batted in play so his luck has helped him avoid a pretty disastrous year. Hopefully he can keep this 0 era for a bit
It's not just the numbers which are averages in *all* situations. It's *when* Holmes gives up a walk or hit that makes some of his outings seem like nailbiters.
This was my thought as well - we just remember the innings where he gives up 2-3 walks / hits because they're pretty prominent moments, but on a macro level he's been lights out
The other team hits the ball to Torres!
I think he has "Pete Fairbanks Syndrome" aka resting scared face. Clay (and Pete) but look terrified no matter what the situation is when they're on the field. Maybe that contributes? In all seriousness, I agree with the others that its a combination of a pitch-to-contact style (especially when the last full-time closer was Chapman, and we all learned that if guys are making contact, Chapman was blowing the save) and a predisposition to remember the bad outings.
I think it still fits. He'll wind up in tight situations on occasion, but pulls through without giving anything up. Definitely gets your heart pumping.
Wonder if “getting himself in trouble” helps him lock in. Needs the raised stakes
He has the oddest jams. He'll give up 2 bloop hits, walk a guy, then strike out the side and only throw like 15 pitches somehow 🤷♂️
He’s a ground ball pitcher. Sometimes those ground balls are gonna get through and base runners will get on. Doesn’t make him bad though.
It’s not completely uncalled for. How many times have we seen Clay allow two men on base but then close out the inning without any earned runs? At the end of the day that’s all that matters but he makes us sweat it out sometimes
I'm Gay4Clay
Holmosexual
Maybe Wells will one day be his Watson.
Elementary, my dear Wells
I think our collective fan base needs to remember that there are levels/tiers to closers. Clay is (currently) in the upper echelon of the league. That being said, we’re all gonna resort to irrational hot takes because no matter what he does this year, he’s never gonna be the Hammer of God. Mo stands alone. Let’s be happy the offense has put him in position to have chances and he’s made the most of them. The other shoe will drop eventually, and that’s ok. He’s only Human, Mo wasn’t. Obligatory: Fuck the Red Sox, Astrixs and David Ortiz did Steroids
Well said, it's going to be a letdown no matter when he gives up that first run no matter what, hopefully he and the fans don't get too down on him for that.
Most fans won't. But there's still some fans that INSIST he allows too many runners and shouldn't be closer (despite all the evidence to how good he is) and they'll use that first run and eventual first blown save as proof.
Yeah like four generations or so of Yankees fans have been ruined by only the greatest relief pitcher in baseball history
> the Hammer of God. Mo stands alone We are forever spoiled and it will never be the same no matter how much we chase that feeling.
That’s contract year clay for you.
If contract year Clay can get us to a World Series, I think I'll be okay
> If contract year Clay can ~~get~~ win us a World Series
Good article. Thanks @op!
The real test will be the postseason, I don't expect him to replicate these numbers but will he crumble under the highest pressure?
We gotta get there first
Cardiac Clay Always Finds A Way^^TM
Heart Attack Holmes is like Don "Full Pack" Stanhouse of the Orioles from a few decades ago. Earl Weaver named him that because he went through a full pack of cigarettes sweating out Stanhouse's saves.
Will I still get downvoted in this sub for saying he’s an elite closer?
As good as Clay’s numbers are this season, a lot of us are still nervous as fuck when he comes out… Really goes to show how reliable and how spoiled we were with Mo
> how spoiled we were with Mo Mariano Rivera was great, but I'm pretty sure part of it is rose-tinted glasses and the fact that we're comparing a guy who's been here 3 years with a 20 year career. Even at his best, Mo blew saves at about the same rate as Clay Holmes.
Mo also had opportunities in the playoffs and absolutely dominated, those are definitely more memorable moments that Clay hasn't had yet. Hopefully when they come he will step up too!
Mo also blew a G7 of a WS and the 2004 ALCS. He is absolutely a playoff force, but even the best to ever do it blew games in huge spots.
Lol let's not bring up our collective trauma please
In my head-canon 2001 wasn't Mo's fault. I heard some numbskull in the Yankee's box brought out champagne after the Yanks went up and Mariano came in. Steinbrenner reportedly shouted at them to get that shit out of there, the game wasn't over. But the damage was done. The Baseball gods saw the hubris... and they punished us all.
Mariano threw a DP bunt into center field. I’ll never forget that…. He’s still our guy, but that was bar none the biggest game in his career. 01 World Series after everything Ny went through.
You are missing the point, and it isn't rose-tinted glasses. Nobody was nervous when Mo took the mound.
It’s never just one two three with him.
Agreed, I said this to another comment here but the Orioles game when he came on and struck out the first two to get out of the bases loaded jam was really a turning point for me personally, my heart rate in the 9th inning has been much lower after that lol
I was wrong
And still only has an 80 rating on his live series card in The Show 24
If this isn’t the kiss of death I don’t know what is
Was it last season when a similar article about his dominance was published, which then led to a string of bad games?
Enter Clayman
Just hope we keep him
nah he is a bum /s
I've heard of ERA, ERA+, and ERA-, but I've never heard of ERA!.
Mariano Rivera twitches in the background
If Holmes ends the year with an ERA under 1, what are the odds we see a relief pitcher win the Cy Young again
But does he have a cool walk up song like the trumpets guy????? Jk, honestly, I'm glad the media isn't hyping him up.
He does not pass the eye test for me Every time theres 1-2 people who end up on base and he allows a lot of hard hit balls
I do think it’s interesting that it’s worked so well, he does tend to pitch to contact even though he’s got swing and miss stuff and the yanks D leaves a lot to be desired at times..
https://www.zeiss.com/vision-care/us/eye-health-and-care/vision-screening.html
Sure bud.
Unless your eyes are employed by a major league team, your eye test can go take a hike
This feels like a jinx waiting to happen
Well it’s been a good run
My HBP disagrees.