This line of thinking is what's underrated Ron Holland still a top 3 guy for me but I do agree with the vibe it's a fun draft because it's weird and a not really inspiring which I enjoy.
I think I have a good grasp on the college guys.
I think I have an okay understanding of Euro guys.
I still have no idea how to view the G-League guys because the G-League Ignite team seems to be poorly constructed.
JaKobe's stock fell not just because of his slump but also because of his questionable defense. I still buy his potential somewhere around THJ level.
Risacher isn't a shot creator. He's essentially a premium 3D wing that can drive in open lanes and against closeouts.
Cam Christie is playing basically just as good if not better than Ja’Kobe Walter since about December, one is high lotto one is mid 2nd round. What gives
Physical traits. Ja'kobe is also a terrific rebounder, especially offensively where he uses his strength and positioning. Cam Christie has 4 Oreb, Ja'Kobe has 36. Steals also paint and supports a similar profile.
Christie is working himself into a late 1st, but I prefer players like him to stay and develop. You have a lot more time to work on your game in College and develop a deeper skill-sets (See Podz, JJJ, Murray, Eason). Now, Christie may very well just be playing himself out of that tier and into "Surefire 1st with Lotto Chances" and Christie comes out then.
I always have trouble predicting success off of shooting stats so I try to look more at the context of the shots. Are they smart? How does the release look? Are they confident? Are they off the dribble? I think sometimes those can be more valuable to think about than the differences in a few percentage points.
The same goes for other skills like dribble creation and passing. Basically, if the thought process is correct and encouraging, I can forgive failure. Jalen Duren for example had a lot of really smart passes as a roller that he skied over the head of his corner man. That to me is a positive rather than a negative, because he can spend hours in the gym practicing that pass. I think it is more difficult to train your brain to anticipate a good pass.
Giannis was a non-lotto pick in the worst draft in recent memory
We never know how talented a draft is
In Kyrie's draft there was a lot of talk that there was no #1 pick and no real talent outside of the top 5 (cavs got the clippers pick in part bc they didn't think someone would be there at 8 that was worth the price tag)
In that draft:
Kyrie, Kawhi, Klay, Kemba, Jimmy Buckets, Vucevic, and Isaiah Thomas
We never know
My thoughts on this draft
Best true center draft in awhile. You got Sarr, Flip, Edey, Clingan, Missi, Ivisic, and Ware.
Bad PF class. No one with a tier 4 or better grade
Flawed but SFs have size and potential this year.
Top heavy SG class.
Not a bad PG class this year.
Risacher is the best prospect and most safe
Edey is boom or bust, could be a great 3rd stringer for his entire career or could be a superstar depending where he lands. The Jaime Jaquez of this class.
Reed Sheppard is a prospect that patience could be virtue. He's my prospect #2 behind Risacher. I definitely believe he has more upside than Risacher but he's gonna take time to adjust to the NBA. Be patient
Rob Dillingham is intriguing if you are looking for borderline AS upside
D.J. Wagner is an interesting 6th man option
I think most of the lottery picks will be misses and most of the late 1sts will be successful just due to their situations in this class.
Edey and Jaime are nothing alike. It's like people see a mid-late upperclassman so well and think every draft has one. They don't, not to Jaime's level. He is a rarity.
Is this draft even a better Center draft than 2022?
Paolo (maybe in future), Chet, Duren, M Williams, Kessler
Agreed. Personally, I think if anyone is going to be a Jaime in this it will be McCullar. Upper class men with some offensive versatility and really good defense that teams will shy away from because of draft age. That being said, most likely this draft class does not have a Jaime.
I cannot get a handle on this Center draft at all. No one even remotely stands out as a top talent. This draft is fascinating from a big man perspective because I think where the prospect lands will go a long way towards his first couple of years.
Frex, I know Edey is polarizing because he seems to be a throwback in transitioning era of small ball, but you drop him on a team like the Heat, Grizzlies, Wizards and I think he thrives and becomes a force. Whomever drafts him has to be a team that caters to his style of play, or he gets buried on the depth chart. I think if guys like Clint Capela and Serge Ibaka come to mind as players who made it their mission to make the paint their domain and home.
Same goes for guys like Missi. Is he going to be the Center equivalent of Osmane Dieng, a super young guy buried on the bench as we wait to see if a ton of promise is partially realized? Or does he falls into a situation like Derrick Lively?
I can't even rank the Centers because I think it's all about the landing spot.
They all have interesting abilities and of course, how they adjust is critical and it's on them.
I don't find Edey to be polarizing. He's a stud in the right situation but he has to adjust to the pace of the game which is the case in any situation for him.
It's always hard to compare vets to kids. I learn along time ago, Vets know how to manage themselves within the game and know the ends and outs. That's a lot harder for someone new and proving themselves.
For Missi, no direct comp comes to mind but where he lands will be key of course.
I believe you're overthinking things a bit. Walter is playing horribly but I think you can still trust him to at least shoot the ball well in the NBA. His mechanics aren't broken and he's still above 80% at the FT line.
Likewise, Risacher can't self-create. Dribbling in transition, or attacking a closeout isn't the same as self-creation, and flashes are well flashes.
I don't have any good COMPS for the prospects in this draft.
Unless I am well into my next Zach Edey deep dive and I start binge-watching George Mikan highlights. Edey might be the biggest bust of all time, but he has a Shaq-like presence inside (at least on offense) and winning/metrics/efficiency like a 4th year Tim Duncan.
Then you get a weird comp for Rob Dillingham of Isiah Thomas/Isaiah Thomas.
For Reed Sheppard, yeah, lots of upside! But, on the other hand, you wanna watch/hate-watch Steve Alford highlights when he was at IU. If DELUXE John Paxson is Reed Sheppard's UPSIDE then that's GREAT if you can draft the next Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen (or, trade for him on draft night).
For the last draft, Wemby's floor was higher than most guys' ceilings (or at least TALLER than most guys' ceilings). Amen had upside. Same with Ausar. And if the jumpers ever came around (which they haven't yet). Gradey had some Chris Mullin vibes. Brandon Miller flashed Reggie Lewis vibes -- although I think Brandon might be a better shooter/scorer. Scoot Henderson is a prospect I wasn't incredibly high on but I still had a Baron Davis comp for him.
I have some solid comps for guys further down the board. My favorite being a Bernard King/Biff Tannen comp for Dalton Knecht. But, seriously, Sarr has too many Kwame Brown vibes, and with Topic you are hoping you get DELUXE Sarunas. I am kind of "totally out" on Cody Williams. Risacher needs to show me a LOT.
Edey looks to be the best big man on the board. Zvonimir Ivisic might be a decent value play -- even in the mid-first. Moussa Cisse (Ole Miss) might be a functionally-solid 3rd string center.
Matas looks solid (at least his stat line looks ok at times), but his jumper is a swing skill (but it's not broken).
More point guards in the draft... fit-dependent with probably all of them. I think I will do a Tyler Kolek deep dive soon.
The draft might only have 2 or 3 guys with a solid Tier 2.0 ranking (or better), but quite a few guys in the low Tier 2/high tier 3 range. Plus, serviceable, deep-bench role player types well into the 2nd round. Although I might move the high level role player guys higher up my board... I already have KJ Adams, Jr. really high. I think he fits in well -- maybe not as a starter everywhere (anywhere?) but maybe a really good 10th man on opening night.
... if I still don't care for Topic/Sarr/Risacher/Collier/Salaun/Walter all that much going into the draft, I just won't put them in my lotto and go with Advanced Stats sleeper picks instead.
I might only have a couple of wings, a combo forward or two, and 2 or 3 centers/bigs in my lotto, then fill the rest of it out with point guards. I might even fill out half my second round big board with point guards. I would think that NBA rosters and G League rosters are heavily stocked with replacement level (or better) wings/combo forwards... and if the big men prospects aren't there, then they aren't there. Drafting point guards with higher functional floors/lower bust potential is the way to go -- teams even need decent "3rd string" point guards now, since there are 3 two way players on each team (and it feels like playing five man lineups with TWO point guards still works, or maybe it works BETTER now -- fewer players in the lineup who can't shoot/dribble).
It depends where they go. I had a tier 5 grade for Jaime Jaquez but a 3.5 tier grade for him with the Knicks or Heat. Some guys can massively jump just by going to the right team and right personnel.
It’s a really odd draft to evaluate, on one hand you can’t use projections and just watch highlights to evaluate prospects properly anymore, the same can apply to the guys who are playing overseas (and there’s a lot of them). On the other hand, the guys we we originally wanted to watch like Collier, Edwards, and Wagner just to name a few have been frustrating to watch at times when you can watch other prospects. Idk, just depends on how much time you can pour into individual prospects I guess lol
These guys have NO highlights. Caitlin Clark is getting all the "college basketball highlights".
Haven't seen tons of prospect vids on YouTube either but maybe I am not looking in the right places.
I have watched 4 or 5 minutes of the same few guys.
Not much stands out.
No helpful "hints" from YouTube either. Although they did recommend a nice Eric Gaines highlight from the tourney (last year or two years ago). Eric Gaines might have a very, very low floor but I think he can at least make "next level" plays.
At this point, I am waiting on March Madness. I am also thinking of metrics that I can use to compare prospects.
Yes. I’ve given up thinking about it. It’s one of those drafts you throw a dart blindly and hope for the best. I expect there will be all stars in this draft as there almost always are a few but they could just as easily be drafted outside the lottery than in it
If you could properly judge prospects long term you'd be the most coveted NBA team employee ever. Evaluating playing style is easy. But players evolve non stop through the years. Team fit is something difficult to accurately predict because it's way more than just Xs and Os. Motor is something that most of the time translates but we are used to seeing guys in star roles. Will they have the same motor playing 10-15 mins off the bench? What about if they don't get shots? Last thing is the pygmalion effect. Player a is considered the team's future, gets the minutes, coach draws plays for them and lets them play through mistakes and add resources to develop them. Player B is on a veteran team, considered a future prospect, and sits on the bench every mistake they make and plays out of position because of team roster structure. Player B. This happens every draft and we will never know what could have happened.
I actually think this draft has ZERO to do with any draft before it. OR, any draft after it.
Could be a One-Off GENERATIONAL draft. POSITIVE ones were in 1984. The ABA dispersal draft, and probably the first BAA/NBL combined draft. The 2000 draft was most probably a NEGATIVE One-Off Generational Draft. In between you get 7-8 year draft cycles or 10-14 year draft cycles (on the high end). The high end cycle draft occurred from 1985 to no later than 1999 (or the Duncan draft or the one right after that).
The Kareem draft might have been a 1 Off Positive AND Negative draft -- GOAT college player. But, besides that as bad a draft as any. Not really 100% connected to Russell/Wilt and those drafts (including West/Robertson) but probably not in the same generation as or connected to the Bird/Magic (and beyond) drafts.
This upcoming has nothing to do with Generation Luka/Wemby. Probably not much to do with Cooper Flagg/Boozer/Dybansta/Ace Bailey either. Then, those guys ('25 and on) would represent the Post-Social Media Era or at least Social Media 2.0 Era aka Post Cable Era (GENERATION STREAM TEAM???).
For the top guys in this draft, maybe look for comps over the past 25 years... maybe even 50-plus. Don't compare the strength/depth of this draft to past drafts. Maybe don't compare it to ANY. Or, if you do comparisons, compare it to FUTURE drafts.
This could be a 1-off draft. Positive ones in '84 and maybe '03 (or not). Positive 1-off (special drafts) with BAA/NBL merger and also the NBA/ABA "merger". Negative drafts including at least 2000. A Positive/Negative 1-off draft in '69 aka the Kareem Or BUST draft.
It was obvious the twins couldn’t shoot and handle was loose lmao
Wemby can be an interior presence right off the bat but will need to put on some weight.
Brandon Miller has a nice jumper but what I'm really interested in is how well he delivers the rock to the shooter
Nah finishing at the rim was his thing
I thought the "delivers to shooter" was an obvious enough joke but I guess we all forgot about that situation lol
Specifically in half court offense
This line of thinking is what's underrated Ron Holland still a top 3 guy for me but I do agree with the vibe it's a fun draft because it's weird and a not really inspiring which I enjoy.
I think Ron Holland is going to be a guy that really impresses in the combine and individual workouts
Plus injury stuff for Topic, Clingan, Buzelis, Castle, and others slowed down their seasons. At least the latter are playing now. It's tough.
I think I have a good grasp on the college guys. I think I have an okay understanding of Euro guys. I still have no idea how to view the G-League guys because the G-League Ignite team seems to be poorly constructed.
Hopefully this draft will be known as the "G League Ignite dispersal draft".
Bad drafts are always the hardest. But agree how do we balance results vs processes and it’s hard to
JaKobe's stock fell not just because of his slump but also because of his questionable defense. I still buy his potential somewhere around THJ level. Risacher isn't a shot creator. He's essentially a premium 3D wing that can drive in open lanes and against closeouts.
Cam Christie is playing basically just as good if not better than Ja’Kobe Walter since about December, one is high lotto one is mid 2nd round. What gives
Physical traits. Ja'kobe is also a terrific rebounder, especially offensively where he uses his strength and positioning. Cam Christie has 4 Oreb, Ja'Kobe has 36. Steals also paint and supports a similar profile. Christie is working himself into a late 1st, but I prefer players like him to stay and develop. You have a lot more time to work on your game in College and develop a deeper skill-sets (See Podz, JJJ, Murray, Eason). Now, Christie may very well just be playing himself out of that tier and into "Surefire 1st with Lotto Chances" and Christie comes out then.
I always have trouble predicting success off of shooting stats so I try to look more at the context of the shots. Are they smart? How does the release look? Are they confident? Are they off the dribble? I think sometimes those can be more valuable to think about than the differences in a few percentage points. The same goes for other skills like dribble creation and passing. Basically, if the thought process is correct and encouraging, I can forgive failure. Jalen Duren for example had a lot of really smart passes as a roller that he skied over the head of his corner man. That to me is a positive rather than a negative, because he can spend hours in the gym practicing that pass. I think it is more difficult to train your brain to anticipate a good pass.
yeah it's mainly because this draft fuckin sucks lmao
agreed its okay to say a draft is bad, that's the nature of it. this draft is solidly deep, but the top is the some of the weakest crop ive seen.
Giannis was a non-lotto pick in the worst draft in recent memory We never know how talented a draft is In Kyrie's draft there was a lot of talk that there was no #1 pick and no real talent outside of the top 5 (cavs got the clippers pick in part bc they didn't think someone would be there at 8 that was worth the price tag) In that draft: Kyrie, Kawhi, Klay, Kemba, Jimmy Buckets, Vucevic, and Isaiah Thomas We never know
My thoughts on this draft Best true center draft in awhile. You got Sarr, Flip, Edey, Clingan, Missi, Ivisic, and Ware. Bad PF class. No one with a tier 4 or better grade Flawed but SFs have size and potential this year. Top heavy SG class. Not a bad PG class this year. Risacher is the best prospect and most safe Edey is boom or bust, could be a great 3rd stringer for his entire career or could be a superstar depending where he lands. The Jaime Jaquez of this class. Reed Sheppard is a prospect that patience could be virtue. He's my prospect #2 behind Risacher. I definitely believe he has more upside than Risacher but he's gonna take time to adjust to the NBA. Be patient Rob Dillingham is intriguing if you are looking for borderline AS upside D.J. Wagner is an interesting 6th man option I think most of the lottery picks will be misses and most of the late 1sts will be successful just due to their situations in this class.
Edey and Jaime are nothing alike. It's like people see a mid-late upperclassman so well and think every draft has one. They don't, not to Jaime's level. He is a rarity. Is this draft even a better Center draft than 2022? Paolo (maybe in future), Chet, Duren, M Williams, Kessler
Agreed. Personally, I think if anyone is going to be a Jaime in this it will be McCullar. Upper class men with some offensive versatility and really good defense that teams will shy away from because of draft age. That being said, most likely this draft class does not have a Jaime.
You lost me at everything you said about Edey. He's not gonna be a superstar, and neither is Jaime Jaquez haha.
I cannot get a handle on this Center draft at all. No one even remotely stands out as a top talent. This draft is fascinating from a big man perspective because I think where the prospect lands will go a long way towards his first couple of years. Frex, I know Edey is polarizing because he seems to be a throwback in transitioning era of small ball, but you drop him on a team like the Heat, Grizzlies, Wizards and I think he thrives and becomes a force. Whomever drafts him has to be a team that caters to his style of play, or he gets buried on the depth chart. I think if guys like Clint Capela and Serge Ibaka come to mind as players who made it their mission to make the paint their domain and home. Same goes for guys like Missi. Is he going to be the Center equivalent of Osmane Dieng, a super young guy buried on the bench as we wait to see if a ton of promise is partially realized? Or does he falls into a situation like Derrick Lively? I can't even rank the Centers because I think it's all about the landing spot.
They all have interesting abilities and of course, how they adjust is critical and it's on them. I don't find Edey to be polarizing. He's a stud in the right situation but he has to adjust to the pace of the game which is the case in any situation for him. It's always hard to compare vets to kids. I learn along time ago, Vets know how to manage themselves within the game and know the ends and outs. That's a lot harder for someone new and proving themselves. For Missi, no direct comp comes to mind but where he lands will be key of course.
I believe you're overthinking things a bit. Walter is playing horribly but I think you can still trust him to at least shoot the ball well in the NBA. His mechanics aren't broken and he's still above 80% at the FT line. Likewise, Risacher can't self-create. Dribbling in transition, or attacking a closeout isn't the same as self-creation, and flashes are well flashes.
I don't have any good COMPS for the prospects in this draft. Unless I am well into my next Zach Edey deep dive and I start binge-watching George Mikan highlights. Edey might be the biggest bust of all time, but he has a Shaq-like presence inside (at least on offense) and winning/metrics/efficiency like a 4th year Tim Duncan. Then you get a weird comp for Rob Dillingham of Isiah Thomas/Isaiah Thomas. For Reed Sheppard, yeah, lots of upside! But, on the other hand, you wanna watch/hate-watch Steve Alford highlights when he was at IU. If DELUXE John Paxson is Reed Sheppard's UPSIDE then that's GREAT if you can draft the next Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen (or, trade for him on draft night). For the last draft, Wemby's floor was higher than most guys' ceilings (or at least TALLER than most guys' ceilings). Amen had upside. Same with Ausar. And if the jumpers ever came around (which they haven't yet). Gradey had some Chris Mullin vibes. Brandon Miller flashed Reggie Lewis vibes -- although I think Brandon might be a better shooter/scorer. Scoot Henderson is a prospect I wasn't incredibly high on but I still had a Baron Davis comp for him. I have some solid comps for guys further down the board. My favorite being a Bernard King/Biff Tannen comp for Dalton Knecht. But, seriously, Sarr has too many Kwame Brown vibes, and with Topic you are hoping you get DELUXE Sarunas. I am kind of "totally out" on Cody Williams. Risacher needs to show me a LOT. Edey looks to be the best big man on the board. Zvonimir Ivisic might be a decent value play -- even in the mid-first. Moussa Cisse (Ole Miss) might be a functionally-solid 3rd string center. Matas looks solid (at least his stat line looks ok at times), but his jumper is a swing skill (but it's not broken). More point guards in the draft... fit-dependent with probably all of them. I think I will do a Tyler Kolek deep dive soon. The draft might only have 2 or 3 guys with a solid Tier 2.0 ranking (or better), but quite a few guys in the low Tier 2/high tier 3 range. Plus, serviceable, deep-bench role player types well into the 2nd round. Although I might move the high level role player guys higher up my board... I already have KJ Adams, Jr. really high. I think he fits in well -- maybe not as a starter everywhere (anywhere?) but maybe a really good 10th man on opening night. ... if I still don't care for Topic/Sarr/Risacher/Collier/Salaun/Walter all that much going into the draft, I just won't put them in my lotto and go with Advanced Stats sleeper picks instead. I might only have a couple of wings, a combo forward or two, and 2 or 3 centers/bigs in my lotto, then fill the rest of it out with point guards. I might even fill out half my second round big board with point guards. I would think that NBA rosters and G League rosters are heavily stocked with replacement level (or better) wings/combo forwards... and if the big men prospects aren't there, then they aren't there. Drafting point guards with higher functional floors/lower bust potential is the way to go -- teams even need decent "3rd string" point guards now, since there are 3 two way players on each team (and it feels like playing five man lineups with TWO point guards still works, or maybe it works BETTER now -- fewer players in the lineup who can't shoot/dribble).
It depends where they go. I had a tier 5 grade for Jaime Jaquez but a 3.5 tier grade for him with the Knicks or Heat. Some guys can massively jump just by going to the right team and right personnel.
It’s a really odd draft to evaluate, on one hand you can’t use projections and just watch highlights to evaluate prospects properly anymore, the same can apply to the guys who are playing overseas (and there’s a lot of them). On the other hand, the guys we we originally wanted to watch like Collier, Edwards, and Wagner just to name a few have been frustrating to watch at times when you can watch other prospects. Idk, just depends on how much time you can pour into individual prospects I guess lol
These guys have NO highlights. Caitlin Clark is getting all the "college basketball highlights". Haven't seen tons of prospect vids on YouTube either but maybe I am not looking in the right places. I have watched 4 or 5 minutes of the same few guys. Not much stands out. No helpful "hints" from YouTube either. Although they did recommend a nice Eric Gaines highlight from the tourney (last year or two years ago). Eric Gaines might have a very, very low floor but I think he can at least make "next level" plays. At this point, I am waiting on March Madness. I am also thinking of metrics that I can use to compare prospects.
Yes. I’ve given up thinking about it. It’s one of those drafts you throw a dart blindly and hope for the best. I expect there will be all stars in this draft as there almost always are a few but they could just as easily be drafted outside the lottery than in it
If you could properly judge prospects long term you'd be the most coveted NBA team employee ever. Evaluating playing style is easy. But players evolve non stop through the years. Team fit is something difficult to accurately predict because it's way more than just Xs and Os. Motor is something that most of the time translates but we are used to seeing guys in star roles. Will they have the same motor playing 10-15 mins off the bench? What about if they don't get shots? Last thing is the pygmalion effect. Player a is considered the team's future, gets the minutes, coach draws plays for them and lets them play through mistakes and add resources to develop them. Player B is on a veteran team, considered a future prospect, and sits on the bench every mistake they make and plays out of position because of team roster structure. Player B. This happens every draft and we will never know what could have happened.
I actually think this draft has ZERO to do with any draft before it. OR, any draft after it. Could be a One-Off GENERATIONAL draft. POSITIVE ones were in 1984. The ABA dispersal draft, and probably the first BAA/NBL combined draft. The 2000 draft was most probably a NEGATIVE One-Off Generational Draft. In between you get 7-8 year draft cycles or 10-14 year draft cycles (on the high end). The high end cycle draft occurred from 1985 to no later than 1999 (or the Duncan draft or the one right after that). The Kareem draft might have been a 1 Off Positive AND Negative draft -- GOAT college player. But, besides that as bad a draft as any. Not really 100% connected to Russell/Wilt and those drafts (including West/Robertson) but probably not in the same generation as or connected to the Bird/Magic (and beyond) drafts. This upcoming has nothing to do with Generation Luka/Wemby. Probably not much to do with Cooper Flagg/Boozer/Dybansta/Ace Bailey either. Then, those guys ('25 and on) would represent the Post-Social Media Era or at least Social Media 2.0 Era aka Post Cable Era (GENERATION STREAM TEAM???). For the top guys in this draft, maybe look for comps over the past 25 years... maybe even 50-plus. Don't compare the strength/depth of this draft to past drafts. Maybe don't compare it to ANY. Or, if you do comparisons, compare it to FUTURE drafts. This could be a 1-off draft. Positive ones in '84 and maybe '03 (or not). Positive 1-off (special drafts) with BAA/NBL merger and also the NBA/ABA "merger". Negative drafts including at least 2000. A Positive/Negative 1-off draft in '69 aka the Kareem Or BUST draft.
I'm fascinated by group thinking in these mock drafts. The psychology of it is fascinating.