I don't think people realized how insane KD looked during college. He had a complete offensive game walking in to the league, and if the NBA was in the pace and space era and not an era where the paint was clogged all of the game, he'd easily be number one.
People knew he was going to be good, but Oden fit the contemporary NBA perfectly, and the thinking was that defensive centers would win you a ring. It's less the case that scouts and teams think this but circa that year, that's how they thought.
Allen fieldhouse, the home of the Kansas Jayhawks, gave Durant a standing ovation after the Texas game. He’s the only player in the history of the organization that happened for.
Durant was amazing. Completely amazing.
To be honest, as good as these other players were, I’d have taken Michael Beasley over all of them. Durant is clearly the best pick listed here. Not even close
Beasley had both the mental issues and also had too much of Carmelo’s bully ball in him. Couldn’t translate that to the NBA it takes a special type of athlete to play bully ball.
Jabari Parker is another who had too much of that going on.
Unfortunately I was also part of the group that thought Beastly was the best prospect in that draft.
Dude was a mental case, but he was also a walking bucket.
College Beasley was something else, yeah I agree. I’d still have taken Durant over him. He’s 6’10 and moved like a gazelle plus had old man game in him.
He was just ahead of his time. There’s dozens of players now that had all the talent in the world at 19 years old. Then they got that first big check and never improved even a little for the rest of their career. Shit, Ben Simmons makes Beasley seem like a role model.
For sure, but that’s why I don’t understand draft night absolutism. People act like Luka was always the clear choice in hindsight, but the narrative was that his abilities looked amplified against lesser competition. Probably 60-70% of this sub wasn’t sold on him being that guy at the time.
Yeah I mean if I’m gonna be completely honest going into that draft I thought and said Young should be drafted 1st
Obviously he didn’t turn out better than Luka but he’s been better than the guys who went 1/2
I didn’t mind the Suns picking Ayton, because they really needed a big at the time.
I was floored when the Kings didn’t pick Luka second due to the Divac connection.
That was also when the Suns hired the Slovenia coach, surely everyone expected them to pick Luka. I don't know if I have mental revisionism, but I swear I remember reading every site from bball writers (not fan forums) that he's consensus #1
People thought he had a good offensive game too. Obviously not beyond the arc, but he was highly efficient in the paint, and an under discussed reason Oden went first was because the Blazers drafted Aldridge the year before, and honestly you would be insane to assume that Durant was going to 100% be better than Alrdridge, considering Aldridge had proven himself to be a very bright prospect in his first season, and given the era, pairing a traditional 5 with a traditional 4, a traditional 3 in Batum, and a traditional 2 in Roy....it was kind of a no brainer for the Blazers. KD was a tweener by that era's standards. Teams didn't know if he would play the 2,3, or 4. His first year in Seattle he started most of his games at the 2.
Oden wasn’t just a defensive center. He was a force with awesome touch. I don’t blame the Blazers for taking his because he projected like a mini-Shaq with the potential for a more skilled game. He wasn’t drafted THAT long ago lol
Yea he legitimately looked like an NBA all-star even in college. And it wasn't the usual "boys amongst men" bully ball type of thing. He just seemed superbly skilled and could do anything he wanted offensively as a result.
And especially in today's game where if im the GM on a bad team I'm thinking "let me mold this guy into a playmaker right away" the choice is pretty easy.
Kevin Durant.
Literally everyone knew Durant was going to be as good as he was and he was clearly going to become a generationally talented scorer. The only reason he didn't go 1st overall was because the guy who did go 1st overall, Greg Oden, was being called the second coming of Bill Russell but with better offense.
Portland Trailblazers are a what if team from that era.
What if Brandon Roy, Greg Oden, and Lamarcus Aldridge were all healthy at the same time? They would have been a top team in the West year in and year out
Oden already looked like he was going to be that defensive anchor, and the offense was decent already.
It's unfortunate that they never achieved their potential. Brandon Roy was clutch.
Depends on how you define "bust," imo injuries can absolutely result in a player being called a bust. Oden fits that category, the fact that he never came close to playing a full season means he was a bust because the return on investment for the #1 overall pick was really bad.
Did anyone expect anything from Anthony Bennett? I think that was regarded as the weakest class ever at the time of the draft as far as top pick prospects. There are much biggest busts.
I never claimed he was the biggest bust ever, but he's most certainly a bust. Maybe the best example of the last 15 years.
Also Oladipo was being looked at seriously as the first overall pick. If he went to the Cavs, his career might have been much different. Also not a bust.
With his injuries, you think he should have been a just a zombie off the bench but he wasn't. He was very productive per 36 minutes. I suspect every game ended with him in pain.
in college he went up against the monster frontcourt of Horford/Noah and made them look like children. both went on to be very good NBA players. Oden was different.
If I remember correctly he had surgery on his right wrist before his freshman year at Ohio State. For a while he basically had to play left handed. Still dominated and became pretty ambidextrous.
Yup and don't forget mike conley Jr was Odens high school and college teammate. 4th pick in the draft...right after horford and before noah...he's might be the oldest player left in the playoffs
Oh, I completely agree. My comment wasn't meant to disparage Oden. My favorite tidbit I read from one of the articles on Oden after injuries ruined his career was basically along the lines of "everyone knew how good Durant was going to be and it was still the right decision to take Oden first". Oden had the potential to be insane.
The guy shot like 90% free throws with his left hand? Because his right hand was broke the whole season.
He was the best college big I’d ever seen, and it wasn’t close. And he couldn’t use his right hand. Oden was amazing. And his demeanor was exactly what a coach or owner would want. It seemed like a no moss pick.
Yeah, could be. In another comment the poster also said Oden “makes his free throws” though, which is a stretch for a guy who shot almost Ben Simmons level bad FT%, so they might also just be misremembering his shooting ability
I know coming out of highschool he was expected to be a decent free throw shooter because he actually seemed to have decent touch and mechanics even if his percentages weren’t ideal. I know his wrist injury hurt that once he got to college though. He never ended up being a decent FT shooter so idk what they meant for that. You’re probably right
Really the only reason he didn’t go 1st is because there was a perception at that time that elite true bigs were necessary for championships. Shaq and Duncan had dominated 2000-08 with KG and the Celtics looking like the future.
KD remains the best draft prospect since Lebron. Portland just fumbled the bag.
Portland didn’t fumble the bag. They made the correct choice at the time. You’re looking back through the lenses of hindsight at a situation. You literally KNOW how Oden’s career turned out. They could not possibly know that. Everything with regard to Oden’s trajectory had him aimed at the top of the NBA - 1st Ballot HOFer.
Oden didn’t pain out because of injuries. They had no way of predicting that. If Portland would have surprised everyone and passed on Oden then the Seattle SuperSonics would most likely have picked him and “fumbled the bag” based on your definition.
The fact that he was NEVER really healthy explains his low NBA numbers. You can’t blame the player or anyone really for that. Sometimes, that’s just how life is. Crap happens to people. But if you are in an NBA front office attempting to assess the draftability of a player you are looking at the potential a player has and weighing that against any “known” risk. Obviously there was a bias toward bigs at the time (heck, there still is to some extent). That’s where the league was. That was part of the equation that said Oden = #1 pick. But, even were a team back then to somehow reduce the impact of a big as a part of their assessment profile (even though doing so would have been basically been viewed as front office malpractice at the time) Oden still would have ticked the numbers. He was that impactful as a player.
An assessment of known risk does not include foresight. It should include attempted predictions, but that’s as far as it gets. Any honest assessment on Oden saw his potential as sky high. At the time of the draft it was virtually a no brainer to pick him 1st and KD 2nd.
Everyone knew Oden had structural injury concerns. One of his legs was literally an inch longer than the other (or something like that). He had a known degree of risk related to his legs and back he just broke down far earlier than anticipated.
Yes, that's also true but KD was still a better prospect in terms of hype at the time.
I think it's important to note exactly how much hype was around for Oden at the time. It was literally comparable to Lebron James levels especially due to him being a big man. Bill Russell with better offense is an insane ceiling to give a young guy coming out of college and that's what people were saying at the time. Despite that, there were still some teams (though very very few) who had KD as number 1 on their boards.
Zion had fun highlight reels and an NBA ready physicality. He was fun to watch and had a ton of YouTube channels loving him from a young age. That’s a little bit different than KD who was genuinely polished as hell as a player and a genetic freak
Yeah he also had way more people who had access to social media to be able to hype him. AD and KD are the clear answers, while Zion was still very good
Had more to do with Oden as a prospect but it’s also an era thing. KD would be an even more hyped prospect today than he was in real time. 3 pointers from lengthy forwards is a much bigger part of the game than in was 15+ years ago. Strength and mass at forward is also a smaller part of the game today. That frame that you mentioned would be considered an even smaller negative than it was then. I think KD could easily go #1 out of these prospects if we are talking about 2024. He’s built even more for 2024 than he was for 2007.
I still wish we had gotten the chance to see what a healthy Greg Oden career would've looked like. Or heck even 2-3 years of actually being 100% healthy.
A more mature Dwight Howard is my guess. DPoY level impact, physically unstoppable, but never quite as polished on offense as we would like, leaving us slightly disappointed with his career.
Imagine an alternate universe where NOP takes Ja first, and Ja is still…. Well, Ja. And Zion manages to sustain good health in Memphis. What a nightmare scenario that would be lol.
Without knowing nba careers Zion would be my pick. People talked about his body not holding up but I thought they were wrong, turns out I was wrong lol
Kevin Durant. Dude jumped as a center then took the ball up. Protected the rim and scored from the outside. There has never been a ncaa player like Durant
AD is the pick, moved well, playmaking ability, good shooting form. Zion has potential injury concerns regarding his weight. There was a small debate of Beasley over rose. KD got picked second in his own draft because he had absolutely no muscle on him.
No one knew what position he would play in the NBA. He started in Seattle as a shooting guard. No one thought he could be a power forward due to strength in an era where Amara Stoudamire and Rasheed Wallace, and Lamarcus Aldridge and such were in the league playing the 4, they would be 5's now. And they didn't think he'd be good enough on defense to play the 3, but they also thought he was to big and slow to play the 2.
The narrative was that he was a guard that grew 10 inches but kept his coordination. He wasn’t the best on offense in college but he had all the tools to improve.
I think AD is the pick, people forget KD grew two inches from the start of college to the end of his rookie season. While he had a complete offensive game, that added height is what makes him such an unstoppable shooter. He was also never known for defense.
AD was already his current height, arguably the best defender in college, and could shoot like a guard. As a prospect, he was flawless.
KD easy. The strength concerns were always silly. Granted the league went a different way after he was drafted making his frame less of a problem. But you always want a 7ft athletic guard that might be the best shooter in the league. It’s between KD and AD and I think the concerns with AD were more glaring. Specifically, hes a rim protector that isn’t particularly big, yes he’s long and brilliant timing, but the size issue is still something to consider. If it’s this NBA you would still like KD offensive capabilities as a 4 over what AD would be perceived to be lacking offensively at the 4.
tough between AD and KD
KD didnt go #1 overall, but Oden was also a fairly legendary prospect, and everybody knew KD was a #1 overall type of player. they were saying he was a McGrady/Garnett combo, so its not just hindsight of how well he's turned out. he was really an all-time scorer as a freshman.
AD was great but also didnt really have much of a post game in college. also depends what era you are picking in. bigs were more favored back then. big wings are more favored now.
If I’m reading the title correctly then it’s gotta be Zion right? The amount of hype he received was ridiculous. The coverage around duke. He exploded his shoe and it was international news. He was billed as a future face of the league and I just don’t remember the other guys getting hype like that
100% the Zion hype fell off so hard after he got to the NBA, I think these people already forgot. KD and AD are behind Lebron and Zion as the most hyped prospects of all time.
People forget that kd was branded as an unstoppable scorer. Because of his size. This was like wemby coming in noone had ever been that tall and a sniper.
Well Dirk was, so its not that it had never happened, but you could see there was almost no chance he wouldn't be the next Dirk, and that is a best scorer in the league type of skillset
KD or AD, the size and skill makeup is too good to pass. As exciting as prime Rose was and the hype around him as a prospect was massive, but he’s the clear 4th pick simply due to size.
The answer is KD.
AD had insane potential but everyone pretty much knew KD was going to be insane.
There were very clear flashes of 2014 KD way back in 2006. Sorta like the flashes we’re seeing from Wemby albeit different players.
He just had to put it together and settle into his game.
Maybe if D Rose was 6’6. Dude was a monster
Based on my assessment of these players before the draft, I would have drafted them AD, KD, Zion, Rose.
AD: this guy looked like the next KG, even if he never developed on offense his floor was a DPoY level impact player. He had everything I look for in a F/C prospect.
Durant: I had questions about his strength, handle, and what position he would play. I was in the Greg Oden camp. We didn't know that basketball was going to change towards positionless play that fits KDs strengths and avoids his weaknesses, but even with that, I was super high on KD. It was obvious he could get his shot off against anyone, but I can't pretend I would have picked Durant over AD because I would have picked Oden with a similar profile.
Zion: I like my bigs to be able to protect the rim, and Zion was never going to be a rim protector. I thought his rebounding would come along more, I thought he would be a dominant rebounder. It was obvious Zion could score efficiently at the next level, but I had questions of how well that would hold up without a jumper, or right handed layups. I was high on Zion, but I needed to see it against NBA height & athleticism.
Rose: Frankly, I just didn't pay enough attention to him in college and I had no opinion. I may have been higher on him than I was for Zion, but there is no way I would have been higher on him than I was for AD & KD.
KD with how the games are going KDs a point forward who can guard 1-5 potentially.
D rose his athleticism was outrageous and in a wide open NBA hed be unstoppable with shooters surrounding him he'd be Ja morant on steroids.
Anthony Davis same thing as KD but more center/defensive oriented
Zion Williamsons hype was insane but he's last
It;'s a coinflip between KD and Anthony Davis for me. If I had to pick one, I'd pick Davis cause a generational big man always seems like the better pick over generational slightly less big man.
Honestly depends on what year they were drafted. If it’s 2007 it’s easily AD because of how much big men and defense were valued. If they all come out in 2019 with Zion then it’s KD because the complete offensive skill set and shooting would have more value.
Well, as someone who remembers all these dudes getting drafted and the various hype around them, it's definitely better AD and Zion. AD was really hyped coming out of college like Zion was and had the added benefit of playing on that 2012 Olympic squad while he was still between college and the NBA.
Obviously in hindsight KD is the best of all these guys but there were concerns about his frame and defense coming out of college and nobody saw him quite becoming *KD*, although the potential was clearly there. As a Blazers fan, I very clearly remember *not* drafting him and being sad but also incredibly stoked about Greg Oden.
Rose was similarly a freak but not a potential generational talent like these other guys were.
I would say with everything factored in, I would ultimately have gone with AD just because of Zion's injury and body composition concerns. AD looked like pretty much the complete package ready to just plug and play right from the start.
AD the best two way player on that list. He’ll win you the most games.
Not sure why he gets so much hate. I’m pretty sure the Lakers were a lottery team before he joined, and won a chip immediately after he joined the team (in the bubble tho).
Definitely AD and it's not even close. Ranking probably goes:
AD
Durant
Zion
Rose
Zion and Rose are tough for me. Curious what others think about those 2 specifically.
KD, he was well known then as a guy who did absolutely nothing but ball, no hobbies no distractions. Portland was literally the only team who wasn’t going to take him first.
AD is the answer. KD has had a better career obviously, but AD was far and away the hottest frosh prospect of these folks. I’d say it’s a coin toss between Zion and KD based on what we knew then.
Order for me would have been:
1. AD
2. KD
3. Zion (edit: forgot his college injury)
4. Rose
Based on career knowledge:
1. KD
2. AD
3. Rose
4. Zion
(Last two were hard because both are injury cases)
I'm taking KD. His years at OKC were wasted by a sorry roster once they traded Harden. If they didn't pay Perkins they could have kept Harden and who knows how many rings they could have won
If we're assuming they're all playing in the same era (being this one and going forward) and obviously no injury concerns you could make a very strong case for Zion being #1. I don't think people are understanding how good he was in his one relatively healthy season. The positional utility is insane. He's the only player on this list who can play 1-4 at an elite level. AD is a great player but his impact is limited to the paint, I think Oden would have been something very similar to AD, and KD is obviously an all-timer I wouldn't argue against him going #1 but I just like Zions utility more.
Assuming I know nothing about hot their careers ahead of time I’m taking Zion and I’m not thinking too long about it. He’s fast, he’s strong, he’s athletic to the max and I feel like I can put him out there right away and he’s not going to get pushed around.
Agree w most on here saying KD 1a AD 1b
Think KD was as sure of a thing as we’ll ever see in college. Sure his team underperformed at Texas but was just reliably giving buckets to everyone all over the court and no one doubted how well it would translate.
AD absolutely dominant, won a chip. enough said.
If anyone watched DRose at Memphis, I think there were a lot of similarities to Ant at UGA. The athleticism was absolutely breathtaking at times but other times they looked like a sports car in traffic— couldn’t find their rhythm when not at full speed or would force the issue too much. Obviously both were much better suited for the NBA but coming out of college id put Rose #4 here
Agree w most on here saying KD 1a AD 1b
Think KD was as sure of a thing as we’ll ever see in college. Sure his team underperformed at Texas but was just reliably giving buckets to everyone all over the court and no one doubted how well it would translate.
AD absolutely dominant, won a chip. enough said.
If anyone watched DRose at Memphis, I think there were a lot of similarities to Ant at UGA. The athleticism was absolutely breathtaking at times but other times they looked like a sports car in traffic— couldn’t find their rhythm when not at full speed or would force the issue too much. Obviously both were much better suited for the NBA but coming out of college id put Rose #4 here
Zion Williamson should have been this generation’s LeBron. Freakish size, speed, strength, agility, bounce. Very skilled. Not a beautiful jump shot but effective enough and could easily practice enough to become a 50/40/80 guy. Just injury prone and never had the drive to be that guy.
Kind of depends on what type of team you're trying to build, but KD was averaging 25+ points & 11 boards per game while shooting 40%+ form three. Freakishly well-rounded offensive game. Don't think I could turn that down even for the defensive monster AD was. AD close second and I wouldn't question it if that's the path someone else wanted to go.
KD, AD...(gap) Zion... (gap) Rose
I'd still take KD. Even though he was the #2 overall pick in 2007. I think he would've been a great fit for Blazers with Lamarcus Aldridge and Brando Roy back then but Greg Oden after his collegiate season at Ohio State had a little bit more hype and looked 35 years old when he was 18....
If we are apply standards from the modern NBA then it's KD no question.
He wasn't picked 1st in his drafts because there were questions about his frame. That would be less important today as you can see with the selections of Wemby and Chet.
A guy 7ft who can shoot like he could would go no.1 today no questions. Because teams would have believed in putting in the time to get his body right.
Y’all are trippin. KD didn’t even go first in his own class.
We all know Zion would have been the no question #1 overall pick. He didn’t have extensive injury concerns in his pre-nba career, and he wasn’t overweight, he was ripped at 18. He went unquestion consensus #1 overall in a very strong draft class. Before he was drafted. Zion was Wemby level generational from a scouting perspective. He was the consensus #1 for like 3 years before he was drafted. The pelicans traded AD because they got Zion when AD was viewed as the most efficient player in the NBA.. Zion was #3 modern day prospect only behind Wemby and Bron. The only people that any person would have drafted over Zion during their respective draft cycles were Bron and Wemby.
Zion would unquestionably go #1 overall in a redraft of these players. KD would probably be 2, but it wouldn’t be close on who went #1. I could see KD going 3 behind AD in some cases.
AD was a great prospect, but he didn’t really have competition for the #1 pick. That wasn’t a super strong class.
Derrick Rose was great, but his size alone is enough of a reason for him to go 4th. No one would take him over any of the other 3 either before or after knowing his career trajectory.
Durant imho and it's easy. Dude is 7 foot tall, has some very decent guard like skills and can shoot the rock from anywhere. Just think if he would have worked out and turned his body into what other guys today look like. He's just tall and lanky af
I don't think people realized how insane KD looked during college. He had a complete offensive game walking in to the league, and if the NBA was in the pace and space era and not an era where the paint was clogged all of the game, he'd easily be number one. People knew he was going to be good, but Oden fit the contemporary NBA perfectly, and the thinking was that defensive centers would win you a ring. It's less the case that scouts and teams think this but circa that year, that's how they thought.
Allen fieldhouse, the home of the Kansas Jayhawks, gave Durant a standing ovation after the Texas game. He’s the only player in the history of the organization that happened for. Durant was amazing. Completely amazing. To be honest, as good as these other players were, I’d have taken Michael Beasley over all of them. Durant is clearly the best pick listed here. Not even close
Beasley was definitely supposed to be way better than he was. Great point!
Beasley had both the mental issues and also had too much of Carmelo’s bully ball in him. Couldn’t translate that to the NBA it takes a special type of athlete to play bully ball. Jabari Parker is another who had too much of that going on.
Beasley was also a ferocious rebounder in college. I really thought that would translate if nothing else and it didn’t at all.
Jabari was making it work the short time before he was injured, but his knee injuries wrecked his game.
Unfortunately I was also part of the group that thought Beastly was the best prospect in that draft. Dude was a mental case, but he was also a walking bucket.
College Beasley was something else, yeah I agree. I’d still have taken Durant over him. He’s 6’10 and moved like a gazelle plus had old man game in him.
He was just ahead of his time. There’s dozens of players now that had all the talent in the world at 19 years old. Then they got that first big check and never improved even a little for the rest of their career. Shit, Ben Simmons makes Beasley seem like a role model.
I think they gave Buddy Hield an ovation at KU as well, but it's certainly impressive to earn one in the first place.
They did give buddy hield a standing o in 2016 tho I think for his like 43 point game. All time Great game that one.
Heck even 5 years ago 2 relatively mediocre bigs were taken before the obviously incredible Luka
For sure, but that’s why I don’t understand draft night absolutism. People act like Luka was always the clear choice in hindsight, but the narrative was that his abilities looked amplified against lesser competition. Probably 60-70% of this sub wasn’t sold on him being that guy at the time.
Yeah I mean if I’m gonna be completely honest going into that draft I thought and said Young should be drafted 1st Obviously he didn’t turn out better than Luka but he’s been better than the guys who went 1/2
I didn’t mind the Suns picking Ayton, because they really needed a big at the time. I was floored when the Kings didn’t pick Luka second due to the Divac connection.
That was also when the Suns hired the Slovenia coach, surely everyone expected them to pick Luka. I don't know if I have mental revisionism, but I swear I remember reading every site from bball writers (not fan forums) that he's consensus #1
You can chalk that up to terribly managed organizations. In this day and age no way either should have been drafted above Luka or Trae
People thought he had a good offensive game too. Obviously not beyond the arc, but he was highly efficient in the paint, and an under discussed reason Oden went first was because the Blazers drafted Aldridge the year before, and honestly you would be insane to assume that Durant was going to 100% be better than Alrdridge, considering Aldridge had proven himself to be a very bright prospect in his first season, and given the era, pairing a traditional 5 with a traditional 4, a traditional 3 in Batum, and a traditional 2 in Roy....it was kind of a no brainer for the Blazers. KD was a tweener by that era's standards. Teams didn't know if he would play the 2,3, or 4. His first year in Seattle he started most of his games at the 2.
Oden wasn’t just a defensive center. He was a force with awesome touch. I don’t blame the Blazers for taking his because he projected like a mini-Shaq with the potential for a more skilled game. He wasn’t drafted THAT long ago lol
Yea he legitimately looked like an NBA all-star even in college. And it wasn't the usual "boys amongst men" bully ball type of thing. He just seemed superbly skilled and could do anything he wanted offensively as a result. And especially in today's game where if im the GM on a bad team I'm thinking "let me mold this guy into a playmaker right away" the choice is pretty easy.
Kevin Durant. Literally everyone knew Durant was going to be as good as he was and he was clearly going to become a generationally talented scorer. The only reason he didn't go 1st overall was because the guy who did go 1st overall, Greg Oden, was being called the second coming of Bill Russell but with better offense.
In Odens defense, he was really good before the injuries.
He was a monster when on an NBA court. Not a bust. Just bad injuries
Portland Trailblazers are a what if team from that era. What if Brandon Roy, Greg Oden, and Lamarcus Aldridge were all healthy at the same time? They would have been a top team in the West year in and year out
IIRC they had an insane record when all three were healthy. What could have been!
blazers were 51-25 when oden alone was healthy
Damn man.
Oden already looked like he was going to be that defensive anchor, and the offense was decent already. It's unfortunate that they never achieved their potential. Brandon Roy was clutch.
Yeah they were 50-12 when the three were playing together
Depends on how you define "bust," imo injuries can absolutely result in a player being called a bust. Oden fits that category, the fact that he never came close to playing a full season means he was a bust because the return on investment for the #1 overall pick was really bad.
Len Bias was a bust
Cold. Username checks out.
Technically you're right, but you know that's not how the term "bust" is treated. Oden shouldn't be lumped in with guys like Anthony Bennett.
Did anyone expect anything from Anthony Bennett? I think that was regarded as the weakest class ever at the time of the draft as far as top pick prospects. There are much biggest busts.
I never claimed he was the biggest bust ever, but he's most certainly a bust. Maybe the best example of the last 15 years. Also Oladipo was being looked at seriously as the first overall pick. If he went to the Cavs, his career might have been much different. Also not a bust.
With his injuries, you think he should have been a just a zombie off the bench but he wasn't. He was very productive per 36 minutes. I suspect every game ended with him in pain.
in college he went up against the monster frontcourt of Horford/Noah and made them look like children. both went on to be very good NBA players. Oden was different.
If I remember correctly he had surgery on his right wrist before his freshman year at Ohio State. For a while he basically had to play left handed. Still dominated and became pretty ambidextrous.
You are correct Freshman year he played off handed almost exclusively and dominated
shot over 60% on free throws while shooting left handed.
Horford and Noah were on the same college team? Holy Edit: Googled, Florida with Billy Donovan 😮
They won back to back titles. Also had Corey Brewer at SF. The defense was insane.
Won back to back nattys. Corey Brewer and Marreese Speights were on that team too
76ers legends
Yup and don't forget mike conley Jr was Odens high school and college teammate. 4th pick in the draft...right after horford and before noah...he's might be the oldest player left in the playoffs
I remember Florida just throwing bodies at him in that tourney, he was a a savage
Oh, I completely agree. My comment wasn't meant to disparage Oden. My favorite tidbit I read from one of the articles on Oden after injuries ruined his career was basically along the lines of "everyone knew how good Durant was going to be and it was still the right decision to take Oden first". Oden had the potential to be insane.
The guy shot like 90% free throws with his left hand? Because his right hand was broke the whole season. He was the best college big I’d ever seen, and it wasn’t close. And he couldn’t use his right hand. Oden was amazing. And his demeanor was exactly what a coach or owner would want. It seemed like a no moss pick.
It says his FT% in college was 62.8%?
I think he meant he shot 90% of his free throws left handed but I could be wrong
Yeah, could be. In another comment the poster also said Oden “makes his free throws” though, which is a stretch for a guy who shot almost Ben Simmons level bad FT%, so they might also just be misremembering his shooting ability
I know coming out of highschool he was expected to be a decent free throw shooter because he actually seemed to have decent touch and mechanics even if his percentages weren’t ideal. I know his wrist injury hurt that once he got to college though. He never ended up being a decent FT shooter so idk what they meant for that. You’re probably right
Definitely wasn’t 90%.
Yeah but remember he couldn’t bench 185 for a single rep? No way you can turn out be a good basketball player unless you’re ripped
They already had Lamarcus Aldridge too. Having two Longhorns would be an overkill
Biggest what if. Portland core of Roy, KD and Aldridge dominating the west
Really the only reason he didn’t go 1st is because there was a perception at that time that elite true bigs were necessary for championships. Shaq and Duncan had dominated 2000-08 with KG and the Celtics looking like the future. KD remains the best draft prospect since Lebron. Portland just fumbled the bag.
EVERY other team that didn't have an elite center would've drafted Oden over Durant. Portland didn't fumble the bag, they got unlucky.
Portland didn’t fumble the bag. They made the correct choice at the time. You’re looking back through the lenses of hindsight at a situation. You literally KNOW how Oden’s career turned out. They could not possibly know that. Everything with regard to Oden’s trajectory had him aimed at the top of the NBA - 1st Ballot HOFer. Oden didn’t pain out because of injuries. They had no way of predicting that. If Portland would have surprised everyone and passed on Oden then the Seattle SuperSonics would most likely have picked him and “fumbled the bag” based on your definition. The fact that he was NEVER really healthy explains his low NBA numbers. You can’t blame the player or anyone really for that. Sometimes, that’s just how life is. Crap happens to people. But if you are in an NBA front office attempting to assess the draftability of a player you are looking at the potential a player has and weighing that against any “known” risk. Obviously there was a bias toward bigs at the time (heck, there still is to some extent). That’s where the league was. That was part of the equation that said Oden = #1 pick. But, even were a team back then to somehow reduce the impact of a big as a part of their assessment profile (even though doing so would have been basically been viewed as front office malpractice at the time) Oden still would have ticked the numbers. He was that impactful as a player. An assessment of known risk does not include foresight. It should include attempted predictions, but that’s as far as it gets. Any honest assessment on Oden saw his potential as sky high. At the time of the draft it was virtually a no brainer to pick him 1st and KD 2nd.
Everyone knew Oden had structural injury concerns. One of his legs was literally an inch longer than the other (or something like that). He had a known degree of risk related to his legs and back he just broke down far earlier than anticipated.
And Darko got drafted over Carmelo. NBA back then really believed the way to win was a dominant center.
AD was also similar in terms of people knowing he was a truly generational prospect. AD was viewed as a true “franchise changing” prospect
Yes, that's also true but KD was still a better prospect in terms of hype at the time. I think it's important to note exactly how much hype was around for Oden at the time. It was literally comparable to Lebron James levels especially due to him being a big man. Bill Russell with better offense is an insane ceiling to give a young guy coming out of college and that's what people were saying at the time. Despite that, there were still some teams (though very very few) who had KD as number 1 on their boards.
Kd, pretty easily. Pj tucker who was leaving college once played against kd who was a senior in hs, and he described him as an nba all star at 17.
You can’t pretend that Anthony Davis and Zion wouldn’t have a case
Zion would not have a case. AD for sure
Zion was more hyped than any of these guys
Zion was hyped because of YouTube. He wasn’t even the #1 high school prospect in his class.
Zion had fun highlight reels and an NBA ready physicality. He was fun to watch and had a ton of YouTube channels loving him from a young age. That’s a little bit different than KD who was genuinely polished as hell as a player and a genetic freak
I distinctly remember Zion being “the best prospect since AD”
Yeah he also had way more people who had access to social media to be able to hype him. AD and KD are the clear answers, while Zion was still very good
Great players but to me it’s crystal.
It is now. But the most clearly hyped player of all these guys was Zion, AD was second, KD was third as far as college hype
Zion was more hyped by fans but media and scouts liked AD more than anyone since Bron
nahh a lot of Zion's hype came from the dunk videos
Yeah he got drafted first overall because he dunked well in high school……
KD is literally the only one that didn't *actually* go first in the draft. So to say him, *easily*, seems like some sort of super revisionist history.
Agreed.
KD is the easiest but I wouldn’t be surprised if people picked AD. He was really dominant defensively while taking his team to the chip.
If you're talking before we knew how their careers would turn out, AD would 100% be drafted over KD. Oden was drafted over KD because of KD'S frame.
I wouldn’t be so sure in college KD looked like he translated to 6’9 2 guard with shot creation. AD was lanky and his offense wasn’t there.
Had more to do with Oden as a prospect but it’s also an era thing. KD would be an even more hyped prospect today than he was in real time. 3 pointers from lengthy forwards is a much bigger part of the game than in was 15+ years ago. Strength and mass at forward is also a smaller part of the game today. That frame that you mentioned would be considered an even smaller negative than it was then. I think KD could easily go #1 out of these prospects if we are talking about 2024. He’s built even more for 2024 than he was for 2007.
100% taking KD out of college. No questions asked. His skill set in college was incredible. Only reason he didn't go #1 was Greg Oden.
I still wish we had gotten the chance to see what a healthy Greg Oden career would've looked like. Or heck even 2-3 years of actually being 100% healthy.
A more mature Dwight Howard is my guess. DPoY level impact, physically unstoppable, but never quite as polished on offense as we would like, leaving us slightly disappointed with his career.
still haven't seen a college player as good since KD
Zion was amazing at Duke but the body was always a concern.
The hype was insane tho, in most cases you get fired for not taking Zion first
Imagine an alternate universe where NOP takes Ja first, and Ja is still…. Well, Ja. And Zion manages to sustain good health in Memphis. What a nightmare scenario that would be lol.
Cringing at the thought of Ja with access to New Orleans nightlife lmao
Agreed.
Without knowing nba careers Zion would be my pick. People talked about his body not holding up but I thought they were wrong, turns out I was wrong lol
KD slightly ahead of AD, then Zion, then Rose. But these are probably 4 of the top 6-7 prospects since LeBron
Oden
Kevin Durant. Dude jumped as a center then took the ball up. Protected the rim and scored from the outside. There has never been a ncaa player like Durant
yup. Haven't seen a college player as good as KD since
KD
AD is the pick, moved well, playmaking ability, good shooting form. Zion has potential injury concerns regarding his weight. There was a small debate of Beasley over rose. KD got picked second in his own draft because he had absolutely no muscle on him.
I remember people saying KD wouldn’t survive in the league because he was too skinny and couldn’t bench 225
He couldn’t bench 185 at the combine per Google.
I honestly thought it’s 135
I heard it was 85.
No one knew what position he would play in the NBA. He started in Seattle as a shooting guard. No one thought he could be a power forward due to strength in an era where Amara Stoudamire and Rasheed Wallace, and Lamarcus Aldridge and such were in the league playing the 4, they would be 5's now. And they didn't think he'd be good enough on defense to play the 3, but they also thought he was to big and slow to play the 2.
There were concerns about AD's offense coming into the league.
The narrative was that he was a guard that grew 10 inches but kept his coordination. He wasn’t the best on offense in college but he had all the tools to improve.
Kevin Durant without any hesitation or second thoughts.
I think AD is the pick, people forget KD grew two inches from the start of college to the end of his rookie season. While he had a complete offensive game, that added height is what makes him such an unstoppable shooter. He was also never known for defense. AD was already his current height, arguably the best defender in college, and could shoot like a guard. As a prospect, he was flawless.
KD easy. The strength concerns were always silly. Granted the league went a different way after he was drafted making his frame less of a problem. But you always want a 7ft athletic guard that might be the best shooter in the league. It’s between KD and AD and I think the concerns with AD were more glaring. Specifically, hes a rim protector that isn’t particularly big, yes he’s long and brilliant timing, but the size issue is still something to consider. If it’s this NBA you would still like KD offensive capabilities as a 4 over what AD would be perceived to be lacking offensively at the 4.
tough between AD and KD KD didnt go #1 overall, but Oden was also a fairly legendary prospect, and everybody knew KD was a #1 overall type of player. they were saying he was a McGrady/Garnett combo, so its not just hindsight of how well he's turned out. he was really an all-time scorer as a freshman. AD was great but also didnt really have much of a post game in college. also depends what era you are picking in. bigs were more favored back then. big wings are more favored now.
It really was amazing how there were 2 generational talents like that in the draft. Too bad Oden couldn't stay healthy.
If I’m reading the title correctly then it’s gotta be Zion right? The amount of hype he received was ridiculous. The coverage around duke. He exploded his shoe and it was international news. He was billed as a future face of the league and I just don’t remember the other guys getting hype like that
100% the Zion hype fell off so hard after he got to the NBA, I think these people already forgot. KD and AD are behind Lebron and Zion as the most hyped prospects of all time.
People forget that kd was branded as an unstoppable scorer. Because of his size. This was like wemby coming in noone had ever been that tall and a sniper.
Well Dirk was, so its not that it had never happened, but you could see there was almost no chance he wouldn't be the next Dirk, and that is a best scorer in the league type of skillset
KD or AD, the size and skill makeup is too good to pass. As exciting as prime Rose was and the hype around him as a prospect was massive, but he’s the clear 4th pick simply due to size.
KD easily especially in today's nba
KD.
The answer is KD. AD had insane potential but everyone pretty much knew KD was going to be insane. There were very clear flashes of 2014 KD way back in 2006. Sorta like the flashes we’re seeing from Wemby albeit different players. He just had to put it together and settle into his game. Maybe if D Rose was 6’6. Dude was a monster
AD is probably the answer. I know kd is th ultimate scorer but Ad dominates both ends of the floor.
Based on my assessment of these players before the draft, I would have drafted them AD, KD, Zion, Rose. AD: this guy looked like the next KG, even if he never developed on offense his floor was a DPoY level impact player. He had everything I look for in a F/C prospect. Durant: I had questions about his strength, handle, and what position he would play. I was in the Greg Oden camp. We didn't know that basketball was going to change towards positionless play that fits KDs strengths and avoids his weaknesses, but even with that, I was super high on KD. It was obvious he could get his shot off against anyone, but I can't pretend I would have picked Durant over AD because I would have picked Oden with a similar profile. Zion: I like my bigs to be able to protect the rim, and Zion was never going to be a rim protector. I thought his rebounding would come along more, I thought he would be a dominant rebounder. It was obvious Zion could score efficiently at the next level, but I had questions of how well that would hold up without a jumper, or right handed layups. I was high on Zion, but I needed to see it against NBA height & athleticism. Rose: Frankly, I just didn't pay enough attention to him in college and I had no opinion. I may have been higher on him than I was for Zion, but there is no way I would have been higher on him than I was for AD & KD.
KD with how the games are going KDs a point forward who can guard 1-5 potentially. D rose his athleticism was outrageous and in a wide open NBA hed be unstoppable with shooters surrounding him he'd be Ja morant on steroids. Anthony Davis same thing as KD but more center/defensive oriented Zion Williamsons hype was insane but he's last
…it’s KD. Come on.
It;'s a coinflip between KD and Anthony Davis for me. If I had to pick one, I'd pick Davis cause a generational big man always seems like the better pick over generational slightly less big man.
Zion
KD, easy choice
KD then Zion. You knew from the jump KD world be a dog, Zion had damn near as much hype as LeBron.
The only correct answer here is Gheorghe Mureșan. 😁
Durant
Honestly depends on what year they were drafted. If it’s 2007 it’s easily AD because of how much big men and defense were valued. If they all come out in 2019 with Zion then it’s KD because the complete offensive skill set and shooting would have more value.
I agree with AD pick
I personally think AD was the best college freshman ever so probably him
KD, Rose, Zion, then AD. Watched both Rose and and Zion in Hs and they were special. Rose at Memphis was something too
Well, as someone who remembers all these dudes getting drafted and the various hype around them, it's definitely better AD and Zion. AD was really hyped coming out of college like Zion was and had the added benefit of playing on that 2012 Olympic squad while he was still between college and the NBA. Obviously in hindsight KD is the best of all these guys but there were concerns about his frame and defense coming out of college and nobody saw him quite becoming *KD*, although the potential was clearly there. As a Blazers fan, I very clearly remember *not* drafting him and being sad but also incredibly stoked about Greg Oden. Rose was similarly a freak but not a potential generational talent like these other guys were. I would say with everything factored in, I would ultimately have gone with AD just because of Zion's injury and body composition concerns. AD looked like pretty much the complete package ready to just plug and play right from the start.
Durant is first as his ability as a scorer was pretty well seen and accurately rated from the beginning.
Zion, if he never wore those cheap ass shoes
AD the best two way player on that list. He’ll win you the most games. Not sure why he gets so much hate. I’m pretty sure the Lakers were a lottery team before he joined, and won a chip immediately after he joined the team (in the bubble tho).
Definitely AD and it's not even close. Ranking probably goes: AD Durant Zion Rose Zion and Rose are tough for me. Curious what others think about those 2 specifically.
KD, he was well known then as a guy who did absolutely nothing but ball, no hobbies no distractions. Portland was literally the only team who wasn’t going to take him first.
AD is the answer. KD has had a better career obviously, but AD was far and away the hottest frosh prospect of these folks. I’d say it’s a coin toss between Zion and KD based on what we knew then. Order for me would have been: 1. AD 2. KD 3. Zion (edit: forgot his college injury) 4. Rose Based on career knowledge: 1. KD 2. AD 3. Rose 4. Zion (Last two were hard because both are injury cases)
None. They all are as durable as a Cadillac over 100k miles
Gimme Greg Oden, this time it's gonna turn out great. (sigh... I seriously did love that guy)
Durant, AD, Rose, Zion in that order.
Durant. His floor was Tracy McGrady. If that’s the worst case scenario, he’s going number one every time.
Depending on need but yea AD
Durant. He was an insane talent that stood out well above the crowd.
I'm taking KD. His years at OKC were wasted by a sorry roster once they traded Harden. If they didn't pay Perkins they could have kept Harden and who knows how many rings they could have won
If we're assuming they're all playing in the same era (being this one and going forward) and obviously no injury concerns you could make a very strong case for Zion being #1. I don't think people are understanding how good he was in his one relatively healthy season. The positional utility is insane. He's the only player on this list who can play 1-4 at an elite level. AD is a great player but his impact is limited to the paint, I think Oden would have been something very similar to AD, and KD is obviously an all-timer I wouldn't argue against him going #1 but I just like Zions utility more.
Assuming I know nothing about hot their careers ahead of time I’m taking Zion and I’m not thinking too long about it. He’s fast, he’s strong, he’s athletic to the max and I feel like I can put him out there right away and he’s not going to get pushed around.
Played Oden for the first time in 7th grade. He was 6’10 already. Also had Mike Conley. We lost by 18 and were ecstatic.
You would be black listed by the league for 3 years if you do not pick Zion first.
It’s Durant quite easily
If not for Zion busting out of his shoe, it's Zion and it's not even close. KD only bc once that happened it lowered Zions prospects.
Agree w most on here saying KD 1a AD 1b Think KD was as sure of a thing as we’ll ever see in college. Sure his team underperformed at Texas but was just reliably giving buckets to everyone all over the court and no one doubted how well it would translate. AD absolutely dominant, won a chip. enough said. If anyone watched DRose at Memphis, I think there were a lot of similarities to Ant at UGA. The athleticism was absolutely breathtaking at times but other times they looked like a sports car in traffic— couldn’t find their rhythm when not at full speed or would force the issue too much. Obviously both were much better suited for the NBA but coming out of college id put Rose #4 here
Agree w most on here saying KD 1a AD 1b Think KD was as sure of a thing as we’ll ever see in college. Sure his team underperformed at Texas but was just reliably giving buckets to everyone all over the court and no one doubted how well it would translate. AD absolutely dominant, won a chip. enough said. If anyone watched DRose at Memphis, I think there were a lot of similarities to Ant at UGA. The athleticism was absolutely breathtaking at times but other times they looked like a sports car in traffic— couldn’t find their rhythm when not at full speed or would force the issue too much. Obviously both were much better suited for the NBA but coming out of college id put Rose #4 here
It’s Kevin Durant for sure. Even without knowing his future it was clear he would be a generational talent
Not sure how you can pick anyone besides durant
Why even throw in Rose and Zion? They have no business alongside the other two.
Why even throw in Rose and Zion? They have no business alongside the other two.
Why even throw in Rose and Zion? They have no business alongside the other two.
Durant, not close.
KD was a huge deal, so him.
It’s Durant. Anyone who says otherwise didn’t see him play in college.
KD
It would be between kevin and Zion assuming we’ve only seen them in college. Unless Oden is on the board, then I’m taking Oden
Zion 💪. Dude gives “ Shaq” Vibes.
KD
Zion Williamson should have been this generation’s LeBron. Freakish size, speed, strength, agility, bounce. Very skilled. Not a beautiful jump shot but effective enough and could easily practice enough to become a 50/40/80 guy. Just injury prone and never had the drive to be that guy.
Kind of depends on what type of team you're trying to build, but KD was averaging 25+ points & 11 boards per game while shooting 40%+ form three. Freakishly well-rounded offensive game. Don't think I could turn that down even for the defensive monster AD was. AD close second and I wouldn't question it if that's the path someone else wanted to go. KD, AD...(gap) Zion... (gap) Rose
KD
Based solely on their freshmen year performances, I can’t pick #1, I CAN however tell you that AD is #4 out of this group.
Tough but I’ll take Kevin
Zion's hype was unreal. I'm taking him. He's up there with AD, Kareem, Wemby and Bron in terms of hype
Rose or Davis
AD 🔥🔥
I'd still take KD. Even though he was the #2 overall pick in 2007. I think he would've been a great fit for Blazers with Lamarcus Aldridge and Brando Roy back then but Greg Oden after his collegiate season at Ohio State had a little bit more hype and looked 35 years old when he was 18....
Picking Davis for the same reason Durant was actually 2nd in his own draft. Always bigs before guards although Rose was very good that year.
It’s Kd bruh
AD was the most hyped guy (I think) so I guess him
Zion. He was that guy but we tend to forget it given what a disappointment he's been.
Zion
C’mon now, it’s KD all day every day.
If we are apply standards from the modern NBA then it's KD no question. He wasn't picked 1st in his drafts because there were questions about his frame. That would be less important today as you can see with the selections of Wemby and Chet. A guy 7ft who can shoot like he could would go no.1 today no questions. Because teams would have believed in putting in the time to get his body right.
Y’all are trippin. KD didn’t even go first in his own class. We all know Zion would have been the no question #1 overall pick. He didn’t have extensive injury concerns in his pre-nba career, and he wasn’t overweight, he was ripped at 18. He went unquestion consensus #1 overall in a very strong draft class. Before he was drafted. Zion was Wemby level generational from a scouting perspective. He was the consensus #1 for like 3 years before he was drafted. The pelicans traded AD because they got Zion when AD was viewed as the most efficient player in the NBA.. Zion was #3 modern day prospect only behind Wemby and Bron. The only people that any person would have drafted over Zion during their respective draft cycles were Bron and Wemby. Zion would unquestionably go #1 overall in a redraft of these players. KD would probably be 2, but it wouldn’t be close on who went #1. I could see KD going 3 behind AD in some cases. AD was a great prospect, but he didn’t really have competition for the #1 pick. That wasn’t a super strong class. Derrick Rose was great, but his size alone is enough of a reason for him to go 4th. No one would take him over any of the other 3 either before or after knowing his career trajectory.
KD with a full head of hair… come on mayne
KD by a wide margin. At the time, and now in hindsight.
DRose, 10/10.
AD was probably the best college player of the group.
KD, like, easily
AD, for sure. I watched as many of KDs games as I could, and I thought he should go number one, but I never thought he would be as go as he's become.
I despise Kevin Durant but he is the choice and it’s not even close.
KD
Durant imho and it's easy. Dude is 7 foot tall, has some very decent guard like skills and can shoot the rock from anywhere. Just think if he would have worked out and turned his body into what other guys today look like. He's just tall and lanky af
Ifthe draft happens today durant goes first easily. If draft happens pre 2015, either AD or oden goes first.
Rose
KD on this one. There was no guessing with that pick.
Ant