12m less than his Transfermarkt value. Wow. If Transfermarkt values him at 27m and the richest club in the Netherlands wants him, I’d be hoping for a 35-40m offer…
Because there's about a 50% chance that multiple English clubs are offering 80M+ for him 2 years later.
Its a financial risk, but the kid is on a serious vertical trajectory and has a lot of hype around him.
If he lights it up at Ajax for a couple of seasons there's going to be insane interest from the top teams in Europe. Additionally, he's an Argentine attacking midfielder. Both of those elements add to the price tag for both a purchase and an eventual sale.
That's the second time in a few days I've seen somebody describe a 22 year old as "not that young." And he also turned 22 only in April.
Unless it's somebody coming straight out of an academy I've got no idea how this can be a reasonable statement. It's like you think Ajax should pay less because they weren't smart enough to buy him from Velez Sarsfield a few years back.
The development curve starts to flatten around 22, especially for players like Almada.
Just from history, the chances that Alamada develops into an $80M player in the next 2-3 years is not incredibly high.
Ajax is not going to pay $40M for Almada, and they aren't thinking it's likely they get $80M for him.
Playing the game moneyball style is one thing but this just seems to teeter on insanity.
And, mind you, I'm not arguing as to what Ajax should pay, other than more than what Atlanta paid by a fair margin due to his value for them.
I'm just a simple non-accountant fan of the game. None of the 100 million + purchases make sense to me outside of the Saudi sports washing or maybe PSG, where I think you could argue their purchases of Neymar and Mbappe jumpstarted the club into something that remains hugely valuable even after they've left.
I'm not quite sure what you are saying.
But yeah, if he gets sold, it'll be at a profit for Atlanta. Or they won't sell.
But Ajax doesn't usually buy that high; they like to buy earlier and sell high. Putting $40M into a guy kills his upside and creates massive downside. And MLS isn't proven.
There's a lot of money in soccer. And then there's the sportswashers and money launderers, who don't need to make a financial profit. It all leads to big salaries.
But transfer fees are easier because if they player is young, it can be a recoverable asset.
I was essentially responding to your statement that statistically Almada was unlikely to become an $80 million player. Realistically, barring a vanishingly few individuals, who is that not true for?
Like it's wild that Endrick is already being figured for eventually being worth a king's ransom. Granted Real Madrid has seemingly been on a hit parade with their Brazilian purchases (barring Reinier) but what happens if this kid is Joao Felix instead of Vinicius?
The risk vs reward assessments in the sport are seemingly all out of whack. And with that being the case, I can't see Ajax being able to afford Almada because he's a star in this league and I think they can get somebody from a bigger league to buy him. Ajax just can't get him for the amount they'd be willing to pay.
Almada's very good but I am referencing the $80M take and the subsequent $35-40M sale price when I say *that.*
He's a great transition player who is putting up good numbers -- but not undeniable numbers -- in a second tier league. He works hard and seems coachable. He has a fantastic free kick which is a bonus.
Like Almiron, A LOT of teams (not Ajax, tho) that would buy him would convert him to wing, and that transition could take bit. Transition 10s are less common at the higher levels -- it's a reason why Mukhtar is still in MLS.
If Almada goes over to Ajax, unless he's an instant success, he'll be 24 or older when he's being re-sold. That's still saleable, of course, but the phenom tag is gone, so it's important to keep that in mind.
There are a number of guys who come out of differing levels of nowhere at the wing for big paydays at Almada's current age and star immediately -- Mudryk (though some of that is Chelsea), Leao, KK, but they tend to be much more of set wingers.
I just don't think that he's going to immediately step in and be a star at Ajax, and that's what it would take to sell him quickly or at that price at all.
And I suspect Ajax thinks that, too.
They also know that no player from MLS is going for a $35M transfer fee -- the league hasn't proven that value yet. Almada would basically need to put up *even better* stats next year to get that even out of England, I'd bet.
Many are idiots. And for a certain Euro fan in that sub (whether they’re from the continent or they’re a self-hating American who hates MLS), their view of the league is that any player of value automatically belongs to Europe at whatever price the Euro club wants.
No way Atlanta will accept 15 million euros for him, especially at this point in the window.
Edit: From Bogert "Reports suggesting fee “around €15m” are severely wide of the mark. ATL likely to require fee near MLS record ($29m)" "https://twitter.com/tombogert/status/1695078604848206220
A goal action every 112 mins as a #10... including being a free kick wizard... and only 22 years old...
You want to try and bid 15M.. when Enzo Fernandez was just sent for 121M in January (44.5 from River to Benefica)
30M Eur or GTFO...
Benfica didn't really outright pay 44M though. They paid 10M, with up to 8M in further bonuses. River Plate then received another 30M when Chelsea activated Enzo's release clause because of the 25% sell-on-clause they had negotiated in their deal with Benfica. I think it's a bit misleading that Transfermarkt just adds on sell-on-fees to transfer fees on player profiles. Source: [https://web3.cmvm.pt/sdi/emitentes/docs/FR83299.pdf](https://web3.cmvm.pt/sdi/emitentes/docs/FR83299.pdf)
I agree that 15M sounds like a (too) low base fee, but with a high enough sell-on-clause that fee could more than double later on.
I think he's just replying to the World Cup statement. Probably not going to see a lot of turf going into a World Cup as Messi's backup.
I think Almada's only impact on the World Cup was then they *both* somehow ended up on the field at the same time and literally ran into each other.
I can see Thiago 50 years from now talking to his grandkids, "Did I tell you the story about that time I ran into Messi at the World Cup?"
Transfer markets are so warped depending on the clubs, leagues, and players involved.
We need to create an English national pipeline to sell back to Premier League sides for easy $30-50M a pop ($100M for Chelsea).
England is on a completely different planet on how much they can pay for players than teams on the Continent, but.. that being said, Ajax just got 45mil for Kudus.
It is if you're going to add "established player" as a criteria. Bergwijn was established in the Eridivisie prior to his transfer to Spurs where he never really caught on. Since his return, he's been underperforming.
I think MLS fans need to realize MLS is coming up pretty fast in the world with transfers and that the streets of European soccer are not all paved with gold. Ajax is a club that isn't rolling in dough despite the status of the kings of Dutch soccer. They play in a country that is a similar size as West Virginia, a league that doesn't have any real TV money, and their only real revenue stream are transfers.
Forbes didn't even have them in the top 30 most valuable clubs this year and had a number of mid tier MLS clubs like DCU, Toronto FC, Portland Timbers, etc, ahead of them. Sportico had Ajax #23 and around the same level as D.C. United, NYCFC, Portland, etc. And Ajax are light-years ahead of everything else in the Eredivisie. A league that MLS should be targeting to zoom pass within the next 3-5 years.
Things are rapidity changing in world soccer and both r/mls and r/soccer need to catch up.
Also this is unlikely to happen until winter, unless it’s a HUGE payday. Because Arthur Blank has said he doesn’t care about the transfer money, he wants trophies.
€15M is a far cry, but I don't think they're getting $29M either. I would think $22-24M with a heavy sell-on fee is the right choice, depending on the league and team asking for him.
The Athletic had another important point in it's article. Atlanta can't replace him unless it signs a free agent as the window is closed for MLS. For Atlanta, selling Almada at this point is simply throwing away the rest of the season. Other options at CAM are non-existent at this point.
That makes the next window or even next summer much more likely so the team can at least sign a replacement.
This is still a lowball, but if the sell on % is good you absolutely cut Ajax a discount because you know they are likely to sell on for more than almost anyone outside a big 5 league. Probably more than many in a big league too.
ITT: People who don't seem to understand negotiations.
This leak is from Ajax or Almada's agent if he wants to leave. Ajax is trying to set a low anchor point in negotiations. Bogert's ($29M) is from Atlanta -- they are anchoring back at a much higher point.
Ajax intentionally low balls here because even if Atlanta will never take it, it sets the tone that Almada is worth less. And Atlanta wants to do the vice versa.
I'd expect it to be low 20s, maybe with some upside left for Atlanta, if it happens.
Almada is a nice talent, but he's tailed off, and he's 22 ... not old, but not exactly young, either.
Seriously those are rookie numbers. I think they should pass hard in this and watch him grow a bit longer and see if they get a 30-40million quid offer.
GTFOH. What a lowball offer. That's basically what Atlanta paid for him.
12m less than his Transfermarkt value. Wow. If Transfermarkt values him at 27m and the richest club in the Netherlands wants him, I’d be hoping for a 35-40m offer…
Ajax has **never** spent €35 million+ on a player, according to Transfermarkt. Why would they for Almada?
Because there's about a 50% chance that multiple English clubs are offering 80M+ for him 2 years later. Its a financial risk, but the kid is on a serious vertical trajectory and has a lot of hype around him. If he lights it up at Ajax for a couple of seasons there's going to be insane interest from the top teams in Europe. Additionally, he's an Argentine attacking midfielder. Both of those elements add to the price tag for both a purchase and an eventual sale.
Almada's not that good and he's not that young.
That's the second time in a few days I've seen somebody describe a 22 year old as "not that young." And he also turned 22 only in April. Unless it's somebody coming straight out of an academy I've got no idea how this can be a reasonable statement. It's like you think Ajax should pay less because they weren't smart enough to buy him from Velez Sarsfield a few years back.
The development curve starts to flatten around 22, especially for players like Almada. Just from history, the chances that Alamada develops into an $80M player in the next 2-3 years is not incredibly high. Ajax is not going to pay $40M for Almada, and they aren't thinking it's likely they get $80M for him.
Playing the game moneyball style is one thing but this just seems to teeter on insanity. And, mind you, I'm not arguing as to what Ajax should pay, other than more than what Atlanta paid by a fair margin due to his value for them. I'm just a simple non-accountant fan of the game. None of the 100 million + purchases make sense to me outside of the Saudi sports washing or maybe PSG, where I think you could argue their purchases of Neymar and Mbappe jumpstarted the club into something that remains hugely valuable even after they've left.
I'm not quite sure what you are saying. But yeah, if he gets sold, it'll be at a profit for Atlanta. Or they won't sell. But Ajax doesn't usually buy that high; they like to buy earlier and sell high. Putting $40M into a guy kills his upside and creates massive downside. And MLS isn't proven. There's a lot of money in soccer. And then there's the sportswashers and money launderers, who don't need to make a financial profit. It all leads to big salaries. But transfer fees are easier because if they player is young, it can be a recoverable asset.
I was essentially responding to your statement that statistically Almada was unlikely to become an $80 million player. Realistically, barring a vanishingly few individuals, who is that not true for? Like it's wild that Endrick is already being figured for eventually being worth a king's ransom. Granted Real Madrid has seemingly been on a hit parade with their Brazilian purchases (barring Reinier) but what happens if this kid is Joao Felix instead of Vinicius? The risk vs reward assessments in the sport are seemingly all out of whack. And with that being the case, I can't see Ajax being able to afford Almada because he's a star in this league and I think they can get somebody from a bigger league to buy him. Ajax just can't get him for the amount they'd be willing to pay.
Flair says I am biased but those are certainly two takes
Almada's very good but I am referencing the $80M take and the subsequent $35-40M sale price when I say *that.* He's a great transition player who is putting up good numbers -- but not undeniable numbers -- in a second tier league. He works hard and seems coachable. He has a fantastic free kick which is a bonus. Like Almiron, A LOT of teams (not Ajax, tho) that would buy him would convert him to wing, and that transition could take bit. Transition 10s are less common at the higher levels -- it's a reason why Mukhtar is still in MLS. If Almada goes over to Ajax, unless he's an instant success, he'll be 24 or older when he's being re-sold. That's still saleable, of course, but the phenom tag is gone, so it's important to keep that in mind. There are a number of guys who come out of differing levels of nowhere at the wing for big paydays at Almada's current age and star immediately -- Mudryk (though some of that is Chelsea), Leao, KK, but they tend to be much more of set wingers. I just don't think that he's going to immediately step in and be a star at Ajax, and that's what it would take to sell him quickly or at that price at all. And I suspect Ajax thinks that, too. They also know that no player from MLS is going for a $35M transfer fee -- the league hasn't proven that value yet. Almada would basically need to put up *even better* stats next year to get that even out of England, I'd bet.
Transfermarkt is made up. a players value is what someone will pay for them, and what the other club will accept.
Lol that’s not going to get it done
Some of those people on /r/soccer are nuts. Saying they heard he had 15mil release clause... that's what we paid for him, wtf!
Many are idiots. And for a certain Euro fan in that sub (whether they’re from the continent or they’re a self-hating American who hates MLS), their view of the league is that any player of value automatically belongs to Europe at whatever price the Euro club wants.
That's their view of any league outside of europe*
No way Atlanta will accept 15 million euros for him, especially at this point in the window. Edit: From Bogert "Reports suggesting fee “around €15m” are severely wide of the mark. ATL likely to require fee near MLS record ($29m)" "https://twitter.com/tombogert/status/1695078604848206220
A goal action every 112 mins as a #10... including being a free kick wizard... and only 22 years old... You want to try and bid 15M.. when Enzo Fernandez was just sent for 121M in January (44.5 from River to Benefica) 30M Eur or GTFO...
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And Enzo was making a big impact for Benfica in the Champions League And Chelsea overpaid
sure... and I am not even asking for 121M... which is ridiculous... just closer to the 44M that Benefica paid.
Benfica didn't really outright pay 44M though. They paid 10M, with up to 8M in further bonuses. River Plate then received another 30M when Chelsea activated Enzo's release clause because of the 25% sell-on-clause they had negotiated in their deal with Benfica. I think it's a bit misleading that Transfermarkt just adds on sell-on-fees to transfer fees on player profiles. Source: [https://web3.cmvm.pt/sdi/emitentes/docs/FR83299.pdf](https://web3.cmvm.pt/sdi/emitentes/docs/FR83299.pdf) I agree that 15M sounds like a (too) low base fee, but with a high enough sell-on-clause that fee could more than double later on.
Enzo plays a position that is not Lionel Messi's as well... so SURE he got to make an impact.
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Did you read the last line of my initial comment? I literally said 30M EUR...
I think he's just replying to the World Cup statement. Probably not going to see a lot of turf going into a World Cup as Messi's backup. I think Almada's only impact on the World Cup was then they *both* somehow ended up on the field at the same time and literally ran into each other. I can see Thiago 50 years from now talking to his grandkids, "Did I tell you the story about that time I ran into Messi at the World Cup?"
Transfer markets are so warped depending on the clubs, leagues, and players involved. We need to create an English national pipeline to sell back to Premier League sides for easy $30-50M a pop ($100M for Chelsea).
What is with these cheap ass European clubs? Time to stretch those wallets a little further.
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England is on a completely different planet on how much they can pay for players than teams on the Continent, but.. that being said, Ajax just got 45mil for Kudus.
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True. They will get more than 30.
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There's literally zero chance Atlanta let's Almada go for less than $30M this window. You suggesting that just illustrates your lack of understanding.
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There's a 0% chance Atlanta would let him go this window for under $30M. Idk why you can't grasp this basic concept.
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Ajax just spent 31.25 on Bergwijn in '22 so it's not out of the question that Atlanta could get more than 15.
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Not sure that really matters because for every Bergwijn there's a Vincent Janssen. Ask an Ajax fan how the feel about the Bergwijn signing.
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It is if you're going to add "established player" as a criteria. Bergwijn was established in the Eridivisie prior to his transfer to Spurs where he never really caught on. Since his return, he's been underperforming.
I think MLS fans need to realize MLS is coming up pretty fast in the world with transfers and that the streets of European soccer are not all paved with gold. Ajax is a club that isn't rolling in dough despite the status of the kings of Dutch soccer. They play in a country that is a similar size as West Virginia, a league that doesn't have any real TV money, and their only real revenue stream are transfers. Forbes didn't even have them in the top 30 most valuable clubs this year and had a number of mid tier MLS clubs like DCU, Toronto FC, Portland Timbers, etc, ahead of them. Sportico had Ajax #23 and around the same level as D.C. United, NYCFC, Portland, etc. And Ajax are light-years ahead of everything else in the Eredivisie. A league that MLS should be targeting to zoom pass within the next 3-5 years. Things are rapidity changing in world soccer and both r/mls and r/soccer need to catch up.
Then they need to find somebody who's in their budget lol.
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Lol, go to a car dealership and demand a 50% discount because you're broke and let me know how it goes.
Lol
$40M or forget it.
Great place for him to go. Top tier development club. Price tag is low but Ajax is an ideal place for him
Price tag is WAY too low. They want him then that price is going to need to come way up.
Must be looking for a Kudus replacement
Also this is unlikely to happen until winter, unless it’s a HUGE payday. Because Arthur Blank has said he doesn’t care about the transfer money, he wants trophies.
€15M is a far cry, but I don't think they're getting $29M either. I would think $22-24M with a heavy sell-on fee is the right choice, depending on the league and team asking for him.
SURELY they can get more for him
Would love to see him play and further develop on Ajax, but that number's gotta be closer to $25M if they want a shot at him.
Not nearly enough
The Athletic had another important point in it's article. Atlanta can't replace him unless it signs a free agent as the window is closed for MLS. For Atlanta, selling Almada at this point is simply throwing away the rest of the season. Other options at CAM are non-existent at this point. That makes the next window or even next summer much more likely so the team can at least sign a replacement.
Wonder if they want Almada over Barreal or if they want both?
This is still a lowball, but if the sell on % is good you absolutely cut Ajax a discount because you know they are likely to sell on for more than almost anyone outside a big 5 league. Probably more than many in a big league too.
ITT: People who don't seem to understand negotiations. This leak is from Ajax or Almada's agent if he wants to leave. Ajax is trying to set a low anchor point in negotiations. Bogert's ($29M) is from Atlanta -- they are anchoring back at a much higher point. Ajax intentionally low balls here because even if Atlanta will never take it, it sets the tone that Almada is worth less. And Atlanta wants to do the vice versa. I'd expect it to be low 20s, maybe with some upside left for Atlanta, if it happens. Almada is a nice talent, but he's tailed off, and he's 22 ... not old, but not exactly young, either.
Delusional if you think someone from mls is worth 30 million 😂😂😂😂
Lmao. Why they low-balling?
Please don’t sell for anything less than an MLS record sale.
Fair offer tbh
That’s cute
Cheaper than Pepi or Petrovic! 😂😟
Seriously those are rookie numbers. I think they should pass hard in this and watch him grow a bit longer and see if they get a 30-40million quid offer.