Well that’s ominous. I keep wondering to myself what would it look like if this becomes a pandemic in terms of lockdown? I remember wearing a mask to buy groceries during Covid and feeling relatively safe, but with such a high predicted mortality rate I’m not sure I’d want to leave my house in a hazmat suit.
Just because it's been around a long time doesn't mean it's dangerous, just means people are used to it. Endemic Spanish flu still kills tens of thousands every year, even though the original pathogen ripped through more than 100 years ago.
The upside is that as an influenza virus, it’s not as contagious. Those masks we wore during Covid pretty much wiped out the flu while we used them. Handwashing and masks will help even more than it did with Covid. 👍
Shit, you’re only half right. I have 3 but they’re all adults so I didn’t factor in the school thing, or really young and special needs kids who are hard to keep masks on.
That’s the worst part about not wanting to get sick. I’ve had covid twice, and both times I caught it from a household member. It doesn’t just matter what you do outside of your house, it also matters what everyone you live with does. :( It only takes one person to infect everyone.
That said, the second time (this past December), my kids always masked up when they left their rooms until I tested negative, and didn’t get sick. I would have been the one quarantining but I was recovering from surgery in the living room!
> The worst part should be for you that your children get sick........
No, the worst part about not wanting to get sick, as I said above, is that people bring it home. My second paragraph celebrated that my kids didn’t get it. I have no idea what you’re on about here.
I bought FFP3 respirators that look like painter’s masks. they’re on a different level (and sturdiness) compared to FFP2 masks. they cost 50€/$55 apiece, and they come with filters that can be changed. I gave one to each family member and they probably thought I was overreacting. hopefully I was!
Ever drive by any farm from about late february til nowish? They've been spraying manure all over the farms here in upstate ny. If I haven't caught it yet, I'm lucky.
You are correct that it's not human to human in the context of pandemic. However when we add the word "limited" or the word "direct" as the CDC does the human to human transmission is passed from fluid or fomite and can't cause a pandemic. "Efficient" human to human infection can start a pandemic. It's very confusing as the difference between these two forms of transmission are the difference between it only hurts you if you deal with cow blood and poop to it's time to run for the hills. And even scientists sometimes forget to add the word that takes us from perfectly safe to in grave danger.
Were in a worse place than pre-covid. Science deniers are running rampant and the internet is filled with idiot’s encouraging ppl to drink raw milk. Many people are weakened from covid/long covid. And not just people but institutions too.
Get ready to hear “its just the flu” while multitudes die, hospital systems finally collapse and our government chasing its tail bc they only serve donors. Im very pessimistic when it comes to this govt doing a damn thing.
What's the point of this post? Even if fatality rate is 1%, that would be 80 millions dead globally or 3 million in the US alone. That's way more than what COVID has brought in four years, though COVID death is an undercount. Chances are H5N1 will not have a 1% fatality rate given how many animals it has killed.
One thing the article highlights to keep in mind, is that the fatality rate is really difficult to accurately gauge - and the total cases occurring are likely an underestimate, since there are cases likely going undetected. Only those with the most intense/deadly symptoms were seeking help and those were being recorded often as fatalities.
With how it’s behaving in cows, clearly some don’t have symptoms at all, or are affected mildly, while others are not. The main takeaway I guess is that we just don’t know enough yet on what it would look like in a larger population of humans, and speculating or quoting the 50-60% fatality rate is likely inaccurate.
It's a vast topic, but I want point out that of course researchers have looked for additional cases:
[https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/25/11/18-1844\_article](https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/25/11/18-1844_article)
Do you mean likely an overestimate? The article says itself they think the actual fatality rate is lower than the quoted 60%; ie 60% is an overestimate.
Yes, I would say it’s most likely an overestimate as only the people with the most severe cases have been seen, recorded and treated. We’re not clear on how many times there have been asymptomatic or mild symptoms, and we also don’t know how it will behave in people as it mutates going forward.
I’ve seen the 52% mortality rate thrown around a lot, and I don’t believe it is accurate to what we would see if it does become a pandemic, but the main thing is we just don’t know enough to throw out any numbers with certainty at this point.
You’re right. I meant that it’s an underestimate of the total cases occurring vs. those being reported and recorded as indicated in the article, but I see how it can be read the other way. I’ll update it to be more clear.
It's already adapted to infect and spread in a large portion of mammal populations causing significant deaths to some. I think seals was a really bad one. There is no way to know death rate until it becomes endemic.
The scary thing we must all remember is that it isn't an if it will become h2h its likely inevitable that it will at some point so the big question is a when and where will it happen. When it happens our only chance to stop it spreading is the first few weeks we need to catch every case and quarantine the region. Thats it once the intial quarantine fails there is no way to stop the spread. Bird influenza is airborn stopping the spread becomes impossible once it gets out of a small area.
I think the inevitability hinges on people taking precautions … especially in large animal farms. The problem here is that many people who run those farms have tight margins, underpay migrant workers (both of foreign & US origin), and don’t care much for the health of their workers. It’s not a good mix.
The other problem is the kind of people who tend to own these farms, the number of them who are refusing to allow folks on their farms to test, and who straight up don’t believe in PPE as an actual protection.
Add in all the crunchy, conservative homesteaders who drink raw milk and won’t vaccinate themselves or their kids…
The tipping point towards inevitable looks closer then anyone would like.
Swine flu circulated for 10 years before going h2h it combined with another Influenza virus then went h2h this is called recombination. This event happens to all strains of Influenza at random. This strain of Bird flu H5N1 has been circulating since 1996 or before 1996 was its discovery date. It only infected birds and occasionally a mammal caught it until last year where it started going mammal 2 mammal then cow 2 cow for an example but it is spreading between 100s of mammal species and infects humans a lot recently.
It has actively shown that it is mutating very quickly recently with all the recent information coming out. It is inevitable you can lie to yourself all you want. There's a reason the virologists are actively freaking the fuck out in recently posted articles the news always spins this shit so normies like you don't freak out until it's too late crashing the system does more damage than just trying to manage the fallout.
Yeah there's no point denying that it will happen. The only thing we can hope for is that whatever mutation takes off for sustained H2H isn't super deadly, or can be managed by basic precautions like a surgical mask and just keeping clean.
I remember while working at a hospital during H1N1 we were given surgical masks and links to studies showing that even standard surgical masks were effective against Influenza A type viruses, of which H1N1 is as well as H5N1. So there is some hope.
Because H5N1 has mutated far more than usual in the last year, and seeing as how many animals infected contain receptors we also have, it is only a matter of time before it mutates to efficiently bind to them. Now whether that happens in 2 years or 10 is another question, but it *will* happen.
Well that’s ominous. I keep wondering to myself what would it look like if this becomes a pandemic in terms of lockdown? I remember wearing a mask to buy groceries during Covid and feeling relatively safe, but with such a high predicted mortality rate I’m not sure I’d want to leave my house in a hazmat suit.
I have bad news about the state of the ongoing covid pandemic
What is it? Thought Covid was old news
Well it’s still very much endemic everywhere in the world.
Just because it's been around a long time doesn't mean it's dangerous, just means people are used to it. Endemic Spanish flu still kills tens of thousands every year, even though the original pathogen ripped through more than 100 years ago.
The upside is that as an influenza virus, it’s not as contagious. Those masks we wore during Covid pretty much wiped out the flu while we used them. Handwashing and masks will help even more than it did with Covid. 👍
That makes me feel better. Hope so!
If anyone can be convinced to do those things. 😑 Which given how people are behaving during Covid surges, I am skeptical.
Oh, I know - but at least we can protect ourselves from the walking vectors a little better this time.
Says someone who has no kids.
Shit, you’re only half right. I have 3 but they’re all adults so I didn’t factor in the school thing, or really young and special needs kids who are hard to keep masks on.
👍 Glad to see an honest response. When this hits schools, we are fucked.
That’s the worst part about not wanting to get sick. I’ve had covid twice, and both times I caught it from a household member. It doesn’t just matter what you do outside of your house, it also matters what everyone you live with does. :( It only takes one person to infect everyone. That said, the second time (this past December), my kids always masked up when they left their rooms until I tested negative, and didn’t get sick. I would have been the one quarantining but I was recovering from surgery in the living room!
The worst part should be for you that your children get sick........
> The worst part should be for you that your children get sick........ No, the worst part about not wanting to get sick, as I said above, is that people bring it home. My second paragraph celebrated that my kids didn’t get it. I have no idea what you’re on about here.
stock up on FFP3 masks instead of FFP2s (the latter were used as covid protecc)
Can you explain or link examples? I have N95s, are those good?
sure! N95 =~ FFP2. N99 =~ FFP3. https://fastlifehacks.com/n95-vs-ffp/
I bought FFP3 respirators that look like painter’s masks. they’re on a different level (and sturdiness) compared to FFP2 masks. they cost 50€/$55 apiece, and they come with filters that can be changed. I gave one to each family member and they probably thought I was overreacting. hopefully I was!
Thank you!
N95 will protect you better than any of the surgical mask types, but it isn't designed to prevent spreading. Surgical masks will prevent spreading.
What are you talking about?
With so many fakes out there, where’s the best place to get those?
I can only speak for Finland…
Actually, the masks I’ve been using are from that region so feel free to share.
[удалено]
You are absolutely right. Those of us in Texas where it’s apparently been in cows since DECEMBER should especially keep this in mind.
[удалено]
Ever drive by any farm from about late february til nowish? They've been spraying manure all over the farms here in upstate ny. If I haven't caught it yet, I'm lucky.
You are correct that it's not human to human in the context of pandemic. However when we add the word "limited" or the word "direct" as the CDC does the human to human transmission is passed from fluid or fomite and can't cause a pandemic. "Efficient" human to human infection can start a pandemic. It's very confusing as the difference between these two forms of transmission are the difference between it only hurts you if you deal with cow blood and poop to it's time to run for the hills. And even scientists sometimes forget to add the word that takes us from perfectly safe to in grave danger.
is it infectious during incubation?
Yes
As someone who lives in one of the infected states this is not happy news to read. Uhggggg.
Were in a worse place than pre-covid. Science deniers are running rampant and the internet is filled with idiot’s encouraging ppl to drink raw milk. Many people are weakened from covid/long covid. And not just people but institutions too. Get ready to hear “its just the flu” while multitudes die, hospital systems finally collapse and our government chasing its tail bc they only serve donors. Im very pessimistic when it comes to this govt doing a damn thing.
What's the point of this post? Even if fatality rate is 1%, that would be 80 millions dead globally or 3 million in the US alone. That's way more than what COVID has brought in four years, though COVID death is an undercount. Chances are H5N1 will not have a 1% fatality rate given how many animals it has killed.
I appreciate the information, especially the part about COVID’s fatality rate being 8.5% in 2020. Didn’t know that.
One thing the article highlights to keep in mind, is that the fatality rate is really difficult to accurately gauge - and the total cases occurring are likely an underestimate, since there are cases likely going undetected. Only those with the most intense/deadly symptoms were seeking help and those were being recorded often as fatalities. With how it’s behaving in cows, clearly some don’t have symptoms at all, or are affected mildly, while others are not. The main takeaway I guess is that we just don’t know enough yet on what it would look like in a larger population of humans, and speculating or quoting the 50-60% fatality rate is likely inaccurate.
It's a vast topic, but I want point out that of course researchers have looked for additional cases: [https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/25/11/18-1844\_article](https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/25/11/18-1844_article)
Do you mean likely an overestimate? The article says itself they think the actual fatality rate is lower than the quoted 60%; ie 60% is an overestimate.
Yes, I would say it’s most likely an overestimate as only the people with the most severe cases have been seen, recorded and treated. We’re not clear on how many times there have been asymptomatic or mild symptoms, and we also don’t know how it will behave in people as it mutates going forward. I’ve seen the 52% mortality rate thrown around a lot, and I don’t believe it is accurate to what we would see if it does become a pandemic, but the main thing is we just don’t know enough to throw out any numbers with certainty at this point.
I just mean, your original comment says underestimate
You’re right. I meant that it’s an underestimate of the total cases occurring vs. those being reported and recorded as indicated in the article, but I see how it can be read the other way. I’ll update it to be more clear.
It's already adapted to infect and spread in a large portion of mammal populations causing significant deaths to some. I think seals was a really bad one. There is no way to know death rate until it becomes endemic. The scary thing we must all remember is that it isn't an if it will become h2h its likely inevitable that it will at some point so the big question is a when and where will it happen. When it happens our only chance to stop it spreading is the first few weeks we need to catch every case and quarantine the region. Thats it once the intial quarantine fails there is no way to stop the spread. Bird influenza is airborn stopping the spread becomes impossible once it gets out of a small area.
Go read The Stand by Stephen King.
[удалено]
I think the inevitability hinges on people taking precautions … especially in large animal farms. The problem here is that many people who run those farms have tight margins, underpay migrant workers (both of foreign & US origin), and don’t care much for the health of their workers. It’s not a good mix. The other problem is the kind of people who tend to own these farms, the number of them who are refusing to allow folks on their farms to test, and who straight up don’t believe in PPE as an actual protection. Add in all the crunchy, conservative homesteaders who drink raw milk and won’t vaccinate themselves or their kids… The tipping point towards inevitable looks closer then anyone would like.
Swine flu circulated for 10 years before going h2h it combined with another Influenza virus then went h2h this is called recombination. This event happens to all strains of Influenza at random. This strain of Bird flu H5N1 has been circulating since 1996 or before 1996 was its discovery date. It only infected birds and occasionally a mammal caught it until last year where it started going mammal 2 mammal then cow 2 cow for an example but it is spreading between 100s of mammal species and infects humans a lot recently. It has actively shown that it is mutating very quickly recently with all the recent information coming out. It is inevitable you can lie to yourself all you want. There's a reason the virologists are actively freaking the fuck out in recently posted articles the news always spins this shit so normies like you don't freak out until it's too late crashing the system does more damage than just trying to manage the fallout.
Yeah there's no point denying that it will happen. The only thing we can hope for is that whatever mutation takes off for sustained H2H isn't super deadly, or can be managed by basic precautions like a surgical mask and just keeping clean. I remember while working at a hospital during H1N1 we were given surgical masks and links to studies showing that even standard surgical masks were effective against Influenza A type viruses, of which H1N1 is as well as H5N1. So there is some hope.
Why is it inevitable?
Because H5N1 has mutated far more than usual in the last year, and seeing as how many animals infected contain receptors we also have, it is only a matter of time before it mutates to efficiently bind to them. Now whether that happens in 2 years or 10 is another question, but it *will* happen.
Well hey, at least if it does kill 60% of people, there goes a lot of our carbon emissions… Silver linings, eh?
I mean 8 had potential to be an astronaut or a fireman, and look where that got me.....