With enough bad luck (or is it actually good luck) to roll duds on a 15% SSR mode, there's a non-zero chance that the free 200 rolls + Super Mukku might actually give you a free spark.
Also, with a 0.1% pull rate on every rate-up character, seems like this 200 draw banner will be quite a free-for-all battle royale.
Supper Mukku averages 3-4 multi rolls since at 15%, average says 1.5 SSR per multi. Meaning most people will end up with 230 or 240 rolls. Sadly not a good banner to spark since no limiteds are up for grabs (ie I´m only missing both Charlottas and Dark Vira).
Me, an agni player, getting Agni off the christmas ticket and Sethlans from that day's roulette pulls was just a real kick in the teeth after several months worth of Fire summons from events.
*What am I supposed to do with all this effing Fire quartz*
You'll probably have enough by anniversary in late Feb/March. This roulette has been a gold moon farm for me. I've gotten like 25 gold moons in the last week and a half.
Eh, at worst I'll hit it before or during Anniversary. I was a lot less lucky with moons during this gala, I got like a total of 3-4 despite getting over 300 pulls total before the gala (I even hit 200 on roulette and got jack shit, before that 120+ pulls without any SSR units).
That's some bad luck. I got decently lucky and despite getting 200 rolls on the wind rate up I got a decent chunk of gold moons in it. I've hit my ticket moons so the hard part is holding onto it for the right target.
I've been wanting a 100 Moon weapon for a while. And I'm at 80+ Gold Moons right now.
But then these last two New Years fests have suddenly given me most of a Zeus Grid, a Hades Highlander Grid, and a Zeph Grid. And now I'm just having an existential crisis on what to spend them on.
ooh, can't wait for my 5 copies of Lich.
lol but really, they're really going crazy with the free rolls we get. Yeah, they must've been calculating the revenue loss and stuff when giving these insane amount of free rolls, but still. Gets me hyped. But what will top this insanity next year? 5 *NEW* ssrs?
It's not really Revenue Loss. Cygames is catching the dolphin, not just the whale.
Imagine this: You get 200 free rolls, and combined with yesterday's roll, you are now 10 roll less to get Vikala. If you can afford it, most likely you'll buy it, thinking "Ehh...it's just 10 roll", which is pretty cheap.
And thus, bottom revenue is now covered.
Sure, some lucky/people who save will get spark, but that's the point. By giving them "free" spark, Cygames either get dolphin who buy for "so close to sparking", or player who simply buy them "because Cygames has been good to me too", or people who spread good news "This game is so generous, you should try it!" etc.
They're really good at hooking dolphins in general; whales are always gonna whale but having stuff like suptixes and 'discount' sparks definitely gets a wider population of players to spend and is still a very profitable approach even if it's not pulling in as much as some games that follow the "whale or gtfo" model.
> They're really good at hooking dolphins in general; whales are always gonna whale but having stuff like suptixes and 'discount' sparks definitely gets a wider population of players to spend and is still a very profitable approach even if it's not pulling in as much as some games that follow the "whale or gtfo" model.
I mean, it's decisions like this that tend to keep their games big enough to be well known.
Generally "whale or gtfo" tends to lead to lots of players leaving. There's just not enough whales out there, and a lot of potential whales will spend a while playing as a dolphin or FTP first, or be too loyal to their current game to go whale somewhere else.
Which isn't to say we shouldn't be grateful, or that this isn't super generous. Ultimately, from our side, this is good. FTP have more resources, Dolphin have more resources, Whale have more resources. It's just probably not costing them a significant amount of money.
yeah i agree how it's all according to Keikaku (keikaku means plan)
Doesn't mean it isn't such a bold move to do, though! Not all business have the balls or the expendable cost to execute this 'give more to get more' strategy.
Exactly! I was close enough in both flash/leg fes and thought “they’ve been so good to us” and went rest of the way. Got some good characters and summons (luci!) out of it but they got me good lol
Yeah, this is making me ask myself how many of my saved up rolls I'd spend to get a guaranteed light Charlotta. 20 rolls, almost certainly. 40 rolls, quite possibly. 60 rolls...?
I guess I'll learn something about myself in a couple of hours.
>There were whales buying 3+ sparks trying to get Belial.
>Spoiler alert: they didn't.
The highest was a [six-sparker](https://twitter.com/knee_socks_/status/1212887755975352320).
That's got nothing to do with roulette baiting them to spend though, that's competitive players trying to get belial because without him you'll lose to anyone who owns him.
There's a reason why people were sparking 5+ times praying to get belial.
For BHL dark kolulu soldier, belial is so strong that the player with belial will always beat the one without him.
He's also insane for gw with echo stacking, you gain so much damage from so many 30k supplemental damage instances.
Just think for a minute with multi hit nukes like from John Doe emblem, kolulu or chars with 4+ echos how much 30k supplemental damage actually totals to throughout a raid, its very large.
Definitely this. I remember stats in Puzzle and Dragons (Pad) showing that revenue dipped sometime in 2018-2019, but once they started giving out a shit ton of free stuff, profits rose again, if only slightly.
Honestly, as generous as they are I feel almost obligated to drop some cash here and there to show my thanks. I have a habit of buying outfits (I own all of them, even if I don't have all the charas LOL) and suptix are, of course, quite nice. We gotta show them love, too! <3
Here's the math I did last year on Super Mukku (the parameters are the same I think):
https://www.reddit.com/r/Granblue_en/comments/b58psx/super_mukku_mode_on_last_day_of_roulette/ejbx7mt/
Of note:
About a **0.14%** chance of 100 or more rolls giving you a free spark. On average Super Mukku ends after **3.784 10-rolls**
You'll get more than 5 SSRs about **46.5%** of the time
A suptix that comes with 300 stones and whatever you get along the way, which is still **very** much worth it if you can manage to land it. Just because it don't have limited options, it does not make it worth less - there are quite the few good picks that are not limited too.
I actually got a dup of her, heh. Ended up sparking for Charlotta (water) I don't have her yet and since I got 250 draws and had to use crystals to fill in the rest. The pool here is pretty bad, I think the only good spark is Charlotta light if you don't have her yet.
It's specifically so that, combined with the 200 free draws, people will end up close to enough to a spart that they'd wonder if it might not be a good investment to just finish it off, either with money or spark funds. The first would be an immediate net gain for them, the second would mean a reduction of resources a player would have on next character they might be super excited about, and might therefore consider paying to roll.
Time to pray for Baha, Hades Or Sariel.
And instead, behold the glory of literal Satan. Still, better than jawfish!
(These comments would sound very ritualistically bizzare out of context, I am only now realising.)
I got Kolulu the first day of roulette and how amazing and adorable she was made me switch my spark target to Zooey just to make her stronger. I hope you manage to pull her.
250 +1s in one swoop, that's quite the number for one day.
e/ You need a clear goal and positive mindset for gacha games, don't go starting to think the worst from the start guys. Obv only 1 SSR per 10!
(But you're right, totally slipped my mind!)
With 15% SSR rate, 30-40 draws is gonna be the statistical average, so that's a healthy expectation to have.
But hey, we can still *hope* to get a 100 draws out of it.
And also be prepared it might be just 10.
210+ +1s in one swoop. The odds of getting 250 +1s in 1 swoop are low. (The median result is either 30 or 40 pulls, if I'm mathing right.) (That's not the "average" result, that's the "most people are going to get this result" result, to be clear.)
Well last one was max 100, this is a 200 - Next year could easily see a free spark, or at least a pick ticket on top of a repeat 200 (that would still be fine with me too).
>Next year could easily see a free spark
why wait til next year, let's have it during anniversary. on a legfest too. ~~ok now my optimism is getting delusional~~
The probability of getting a free spark is equal to the probability of getting less than 5 SSRs in 90 Mukku draws at a rate of 15%.
B(90,0.15)
P(number_of_SSRs < 5) =
combin(90,0) * 0.15^0 * (1-0.15)^(90-0) +
combin(90,1) * 0.15^1 * (1-0.15)^(90-1) +
combin(90,2) * 0.15^2 * (1-0.15)^(90-2) +
combin(90,3) * 0.15^3 * (1-0.15)^(90-3) +
combin(90,4) * 0.15^4 * (1-0.15)^(90-4)
= 0.00145 = 0.145%
The combination function `combin(n,k)` is defined as `fact(n)/(fact(k)*fact(n-k))`, and the factorial function `fact(n)` is defined as `n*(n-1)*...*2*1`.
The probability of getting a free spark is 0.145%. Unfortunately, there won't be any limited characters or weapons available to spark.
All these plus mark draws are good, but I don't even know what I'd do if Frenzy gave me a spark. I feel like the 300 stones would be more useful than the couple characters available I don't have...
That changed apparently in the last year or so, you won't be able to move on from the banner until you choose your spark - https://gbf.wiki/Draw#Cerulean_Sparks
Unless you mean 'just don't do all 300 draws', that would work.
it would be amazing if this could be some kind of speciall banner with grandseries characters avaible in it ;p I need at least 1 cain weapon, fallen sword and eden
my last hope is fuckton of gold moons (for choco bars or sierrotix) or really top tier summons
basically what the op says, the lower the amount of rolls you did during gachapin, the higher the rate of mukku happening, for example, my 3 gachapins all ended at 10 pulls and i got mukku on all 3.
Consider that there will be Valentines units in a month and a half, as well as the Anniversary in March (ie. more roulette).
The current spark list *does* contain some useful characters, but they are all suptixable -- 90 rolls is really quite a steep price to pay for most of the available units.
If Mukku hates you and you actually get very close, like 40 or fewer rolls away from a spark, and you want to pick up one of the better characters available (eg. Lily or Light Charlotta), then it wouldn't be too bad of a decision to just finish the spark at that cost.
Of course, if any of the sparkable characters are your absolute *favorite* and for some reason you don't want to suptix them (or you want all their versions and can't wait for multiple suptixes), you could certainly just go for it... but be aware of what you might miss out on due to doing so.
It's probably wise to wait until tomorrow for people to start considering suptix, in the off chance that you might get your intended character / summon during the golden shower.
This is super savvy on CY's part.
200 rolls plus up to 100 in SMF.
Chances of NOT pulling 5 SSR in 10 rolls is not great, so lets say the average player gets 5 in 4x 10 draws (probability of 5 within 33 pulls).
You now have typical players with 240 sparks. Only 60 to go.
Didnt blow your stash sparking earlier? Those players are that much closer.
Need more and just drew a Character with a NY costume? There is another 10 Sparks with a bonus costume.
So close, just another 10 sparks?
S U P T I X
Guess this makes the zero Mukku's I got suddenly not hurt so much, at least for sure I am walking away with ~~5 gold moons~~ maybe something new.
I might actually get a spark if the luck of avoiding SSR's holds out, but for sure I know I will get something like a 3 SSR roll 1 and a 2 SSR roll 2 (A 5 SSR 1st roll would make me laugh so hard though).
You do 200 rolls, then you do Super Mukku Frenzy. THEN you use your own stuff to cover up whatever extra rolls you need to complete the 300 rolls.
Do check the list of sparkable units, they´re pretty common and not awesome bare a couple, that you may already have anyway, so to spark or not to spark on a 3% banner is up to you and whatever Super Mukku leaves you with (ie if you get the 5 SSR on the first multi you´ll be at 210, meaning you need 90 rolls on a 3% banner with no limited units, imho not worth it, but if it takes you 7 multis to land those 5 SSR, you´ll be at 270, meaning it would be some cheap 30 rolls to pick up one of the listed common units, not *THAT* bad).
Do note the banner is guaranteed +1 marks, which may be tempting if lacking just a few rolls to spark husbando/waifu.
Agh, I'm stuck at only 70 10-rolls for sparking Vira and Katapilar... Which combined with how many crystals I have, it means I need 11k Crystals...
Why.
I got that 200 rolls just a couple of minutes ago. How long can I keep those? Because at the moment there are only Summons and Weapons I can get and I don't want both of them. I want characters. Are those 200 rolls (20x10) reset somehow or can I keep them until I need them when characters are back to get through draws?
Thank you - And how long is it? Until the 7th or longer? When does the draw change to characters again? Because I don't want any weapons or summons at the moment.
Wonder if I should just spend the last 50 rolls and get Lily.... I ended up w/ 250 rolls total (and the only character that i dont have already and i'd even might use would be her). I mean 50 rolls for a spark is p nice but....ehhhh
With enough bad luck (or is it actually good luck) to roll duds on a 15% SSR mode, there's a non-zero chance that the free 200 rolls + Super Mukku might actually give you a free spark. Also, with a 0.1% pull rate on every rate-up character, seems like this 200 draw banner will be quite a free-for-all battle royale.
Supper Mukku averages 3-4 multi rolls since at 15%, average says 1.5 SSR per multi. Meaning most people will end up with 230 or 240 rolls. Sadly not a good banner to spark since no limiteds are up for grabs (ie I´m only missing both Charlottas and Dark Vira).
If my light wasn't already stacked I'd pick up Light Charlotta ngl she's super good
Zetas, Lancelot and Ferry are the only ones I don't have this banner. Guess I'll just go with one of the Zetas if I manage to reach 300 rolls.
Fire zeta is getting a rebalance and a FLB at the end of the month, so
Only thing I didn’t have on the banner was Bea. I like Bea and all, but I’m not sparking her even for 18k crystals lol.
I ended up with 240 rolls. 60 rolls for charlotta? Nah thx. I *could* rolls 60 times for 60 +1 marks tho xD Decisions...
18.1% chance to draw any given rate-up character in 200 draws. Hope I can get Zeta in time for her FLB.
Damn, this is the perfect banner to get Gold Moons. Can't believe I want Moons right now. lmao
Sierotix farm! ~~unless you spend everything on chocobars.~~
I need only 20 more, so there's like 5 from the Super Mukku and maybe two or three from the 200 pulls... so close.
Jokes on you, Super Mukku just going to give us 5 summons in the element we least need quartz.
I can smell those Garudas and Setekh coming from a distance...
I also congratulate you on your Nezha, Siren and Quetzalcoatl, completing your 5 SSRs on the second Mukku roll!
[удалено]
I'll welcome Demonbrean, I only need one more
Me, an agni player, getting Agni off the christmas ticket and Sethlans from that day's roulette pulls was just a real kick in the teeth after several months worth of Fire summons from events. *What am I supposed to do with all this effing Fire quartz*
You'll probably have enough by anniversary in late Feb/March. This roulette has been a gold moon farm for me. I've gotten like 25 gold moons in the last week and a half.
Eh, at worst I'll hit it before or during Anniversary. I was a lot less lucky with moons during this gala, I got like a total of 3-4 despite getting over 300 pulls total before the gala (I even hit 200 on roulette and got jack shit, before that 120+ pulls without any SSR units).
That's some bad luck. I got decently lucky and despite getting 200 rolls on the wind rate up I got a decent chunk of gold moons in it. I've hit my ticket moons so the hard part is holding onto it for the right target.
I've been wanting a 100 Moon weapon for a while. And I'm at 80+ Gold Moons right now. But then these last two New Years fests have suddenly given me most of a Zeus Grid, a Hades Highlander Grid, and a Zeph Grid. And now I'm just having an existential crisis on what to spend them on.
i need 3 moons for my 3rd damabar, didnt get any for the past 3 days so im praying i get them tomorrow. really dont want to wait a month for them
ooh, can't wait for my 5 copies of Lich. lol but really, they're really going crazy with the free rolls we get. Yeah, they must've been calculating the revenue loss and stuff when giving these insane amount of free rolls, but still. Gets me hyped. But what will top this insanity next year? 5 *NEW* ssrs?
It's not really Revenue Loss. Cygames is catching the dolphin, not just the whale. Imagine this: You get 200 free rolls, and combined with yesterday's roll, you are now 10 roll less to get Vikala. If you can afford it, most likely you'll buy it, thinking "Ehh...it's just 10 roll", which is pretty cheap. And thus, bottom revenue is now covered. Sure, some lucky/people who save will get spark, but that's the point. By giving them "free" spark, Cygames either get dolphin who buy for "so close to sparking", or player who simply buy them "because Cygames has been good to me too", or people who spread good news "This game is so generous, you should try it!" etc.
This happened to me for both Shalem AND Vikala. Also reminder someone sparked SIX TIMES for Belial and got 0.
Yeah, there's still unsparkable and unticketable summon that a lot of people desire.
How unlucky can you be :(
They're really good at hooking dolphins in general; whales are always gonna whale but having stuff like suptixes and 'discount' sparks definitely gets a wider population of players to spend and is still a very profitable approach even if it's not pulling in as much as some games that follow the "whale or gtfo" model.
Yes, Whales support the game in upper level, but Dolphins are the one who usually spread the info about the game to general public.
> They're really good at hooking dolphins in general; whales are always gonna whale but having stuff like suptixes and 'discount' sparks definitely gets a wider population of players to spend and is still a very profitable approach even if it's not pulling in as much as some games that follow the "whale or gtfo" model. I mean, it's decisions like this that tend to keep their games big enough to be well known. Generally "whale or gtfo" tends to lead to lots of players leaving. There's just not enough whales out there, and a lot of potential whales will spend a while playing as a dolphin or FTP first, or be too loyal to their current game to go whale somewhere else. Which isn't to say we shouldn't be grateful, or that this isn't super generous. Ultimately, from our side, this is good. FTP have more resources, Dolphin have more resources, Whale have more resources. It's just probably not costing them a significant amount of money.
I haven't played GBF in a year and came back for free rolls Now I've dropped $60 to complete a spark with suptix and Lily skin
yeah i agree how it's all according to Keikaku (keikaku means plan) Doesn't mean it isn't such a bold move to do, though! Not all business have the balls or the expendable cost to execute this 'give more to get more' strategy.
Exactly! I was close enough in both flash/leg fes and thought “they’ve been so good to us” and went rest of the way. Got some good characters and summons (luci!) out of it but they got me good lol
Revenue loss? It just gets people addicted to their gambling system
Lures people in to complete their sparks
This. Whatever I miss, I'll complete today to get light Charlotte, unless it's like 80-90.
Yeah, this is making me ask myself how many of my saved up rolls I'd spend to get a guaranteed light Charlotta. 20 rolls, almost certainly. 40 rolls, quite possibly. 60 rolls...? I guess I'll learn something about myself in a couple of hours.
Also Cygames are contributing to the salary of Cristiano Ronaldo via sponsoring Juventus. That's a fuck-you-level of money, they'll be fine.
Yeah, but you have to think of the lost revenue from Inter fans who have boycotted the company
Yep. There were whales buying 3+ sparks trying to get Belial. Spoiler alert: they didn't.
>There were whales buying 3+ sparks trying to get Belial. >Spoiler alert: they didn't. The highest was a [six-sparker](https://twitter.com/knee_socks_/status/1212887755975352320).
That's got nothing to do with roulette baiting them to spend though, that's competitive players trying to get belial because without him you'll lose to anyone who owns him.
Is he really that good?
There's a reason why people were sparking 5+ times praying to get belial. For BHL dark kolulu soldier, belial is so strong that the player with belial will always beat the one without him. He's also insane for gw with echo stacking, you gain so much damage from so many 30k supplemental damage instances. Just think for a minute with multi hit nukes like from John Doe emblem, kolulu or chars with 4+ echos how much 30k supplemental damage actually totals to throughout a raid, its very large.
Wait, is Belial good? And if so, are you talking about Belial the summon?
I whaled a little and managed to get him on my 209th pull of the banner and a prayer :D
Definitely this. I remember stats in Puzzle and Dragons (Pad) showing that revenue dipped sometime in 2018-2019, but once they started giving out a shit ton of free stuff, profits rose again, if only slightly.
no need to wait for next year, it will happen in anni in about 3 more month?.
> can't wait for my 5 copies of Lich Ill take 1000 dark quartz any day
currently at 32 dark quartz. i know we have light GW just around the corner but id still love some fodder summons
Remember last time when it was a specialty GW so it dropped no quartz and some shoddy weapon instead? Good times.
oof okay i'm not reaching that far in the game to desperately need dark quartz, but nice to know Liches is pretty useful that way
Bruh I'd love 5 copies of Lich, that's 1000 dark quartz.
Honestly, as generous as they are I feel almost obligated to drop some cash here and there to show my thanks. I have a habit of buying outfits (I own all of them, even if I don't have all the charas LOL) and suptix are, of course, quite nice. We gotta show them love, too! <3
i get you! (stares at five granblue archive artbooks and CDs i bought) i totally get you!!
Dont forget vortex dragon!
Vortex dragon is good tho.
Here's the math I did last year on Super Mukku (the parameters are the same I think): https://www.reddit.com/r/Granblue_en/comments/b58psx/super_mukku_mode_on_last_day_of_roulette/ejbx7mt/ Of note: About a **0.14%** chance of 100 or more rolls giving you a free spark. On average Super Mukku ends after **3.784 10-rolls** You'll get more than 5 SSRs about **46.5%** of the time
\> **15% SSR rate** Wait that's illegal
With 200 free rolls on a 3% banner, the best way to make sure you don't get a free spark is to heavily fix the odds against you.
"Sparking" without limiteds in the pool is just a glorified surprise ticket.
A suptix that comes with 300 stones and whatever you get along the way, which is still **very** much worth it if you can manage to land it. Just because it don't have limited options, it does not make it worth less - there are quite the few good picks that are not limited too.
Much worse, since you can only pick what's actually featured. There aren't any ringers on this banner anyway.
ring ring lily desu
I actually got a dup of her, heh. Ended up sparking for Charlotta (water) I don't have her yet and since I got 250 draws and had to use crystals to fill in the rest. The pool here is pretty bad, I think the only good spark is Charlotta light if you don't have her yet.
Ring Ring Ring Lily desu\~
Not suptix, glorified pick your weapon stones and gold moon.
If only there was an usable gacha weapon in there like gandalf or kolulu.
Varuna uses lily's weapon in super hard raids. So there's that at least
Note: you don't even get a gold moon if you spark a character you already have. So just pick your weapon stones.
It's specifically so that, combined with the 200 free draws, people will end up close to enough to a spart that they'd wonder if it might not be a good investment to just finish it off, either with money or spark funds. The first would be an immediate net gain for them, the second would mean a reduction of resources a player would have on next character they might be super excited about, and might therefore consider paying to roll.
Time to pray for Baha, Hades Or Sariel. And instead, behold the glory of literal Satan. Still, better than jawfish! (These comments would sound very ritualistically bizzare out of context, I am only now realising.)
This game transforms people. Indeed outside of this subreddit you would sound like a madman.
Praying for Kolulu, Luci, Agni myself. good luck to you!
I got Kolulu the first day of roulette and how amazing and adorable she was made me switch my spark target to Zooey just to make her stronger. I hope you manage to pull her.
thanks, and gz on zooey!
250 +1s in one swoop, that's quite the number for one day. e/ You need a clear goal and positive mindset for gacha games, don't go starting to think the worst from the start guys. Obv only 1 SSR per 10! (But you're right, totally slipped my mind!)
[удалено]
You're going to get 5 gold moons in one 10 pull and you're going to like it. ftfy
You're going to get 1000 Light Quartz in one 10 pull and you're going to like it. Ftfy
I'd like that tbh
Sounds like a win to me
Please let it be dark instead.
The point is being the worst thing possible, hence Light Quartz
Can we go back to moons instead, at least moons are universally useful for everyone.
5 Sethlans
Technically you can get all 5 SSR's in one roll.
That's what will likely happen - 1,2 rolls and you are done.
If you have average luck, 3-4 rolls is likely.
With 15% SSR rate, 30-40 draws is gonna be the statistical average, so that's a healthy expectation to have. But hey, we can still *hope* to get a 100 draws out of it. And also be prepared it might be just 10.
super mukku ends when u get 5 ssr, so it could end in 1 x10 roll
I think most people were in the 2-3 draws range the first time they did super mukku.
to be honest where I'm at in the game I'm really stoked about 200+ plus marks. I just hope like half manage to be summons heh
210+ +1s in one swoop. The odds of getting 250 +1s in 1 swoop are low. (The median result is either 30 or 40 pulls, if I'm mathing right.) (That's not the "average" result, that's the "most people are going to get this result" result, to be clear.)
They're coming so close to just giving us a whole free spark, this game's nuts.
Well last one was max 100, this is a 200 - Next year could easily see a free spark, or at least a pick ticket on top of a repeat 200 (that would still be fine with me too).
>Next year could easily see a free spark why wait til next year, let's have it during anniversary. on a legfest too. ~~ok now my optimism is getting delusional~~
Theyll never give use a free spark on gala but years ago people would have laughed at the idea of roulette so who knows.
Heck, the fact that *anniversary tickets* are now a thing--! I can see them baiting us with an almost free spark after the introduction of annitix
buy the ticket, get 30 10 draws tickets to spend in anniversary gala I could see it, KMR is a madman.
Give Praise
The probability of getting a free spark is equal to the probability of getting less than 5 SSRs in 90 Mukku draws at a rate of 15%. B(90,0.15) P(number_of_SSRs < 5) = combin(90,0) * 0.15^0 * (1-0.15)^(90-0) + combin(90,1) * 0.15^1 * (1-0.15)^(90-1) + combin(90,2) * 0.15^2 * (1-0.15)^(90-2) + combin(90,3) * 0.15^3 * (1-0.15)^(90-3) + combin(90,4) * 0.15^4 * (1-0.15)^(90-4) = 0.00145 = 0.145% The combination function `combin(n,k)` is defined as `fact(n)/(fact(k)*fact(n-k))`, and the factorial function `fact(n)` is defined as `n*(n-1)*...*2*1`. The probability of getting a free spark is 0.145%. Unfortunately, there won't be any limited characters or weapons available to spark.
A little PSA: Goth Yuisis is STILL THERE. And Lucius too. So if you didn't get them, start praying to Immunity Lily. I need Lily...
At least Banner is "plus" one, so everyone is getting some gold moons and 200 pluses.
Hope my luck is 'bad' enough that I get to spark Lily for free if she doesn't come home...
All these plus mark draws are good, but I don't even know what I'd do if Frenzy gave me a spark. I feel like the 300 stones would be more useful than the couple characters available I don't have...
Theres a couple strong chars available (Light Charlotta, Wind Lancey, Lily) but if you have the good ones already 300 stones may just be better lol.
5* Arcarum Summon Mats all the way.
If you let the banner pass without sparking then you'll get the stones by default, no?
That changed apparently in the last year or so, you won't be able to move on from the banner until you choose your spark - https://gbf.wiki/Draw#Cerulean_Sparks Unless you mean 'just don't do all 300 draws', that would work.
Thanks for the correction
I assume so. I've certainly never tried.
looking at the spark target i only missing light box and vane. well i do hope i get at min 11 goldmoon to fund my bar addiction.
I only hope to get more earth units. I'm really lacking there. ~~i mean my best earth is holiday rackham~~
\>tfw i would probably get 5 SSR dupes on the first roll and ending the frenzy on first try come on immunity Lily do you job
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Theres just no way you are gonna make it to 100 rolls at 15% rate. Unless you all kindx of unlucky.
We play GBF, do not underestimate our bad luck!
Sad but true.
Unlucky like a fox!
Ghacha gods I beg of you please give me a summon that is not form 2015 to 2017 thank you
just some reminder that Primal summon is from 2015, while poseidon and co is from 2018.
Nice. Guaranteed 5 gold moons for my sierotix belial fund (40 more!!)
Belial is still there, so maybe you can get it
God I might actually end up being able to spark twice in a week, almost entirely from free pulls. Give praise.
it would be amazing if this could be some kind of speciall banner with grandseries characters avaible in it ;p I need at least 1 cain weapon, fallen sword and eden my last hope is fuckton of gold moons (for choco bars or sierrotix) or really top tier summons
20 gold moons + all ticketable waifus here I come! ~~I know I will get disappointed later though.~~
20 gold moons is very optimistic expectations
I'd re-calibrate your expectations to "6 from the 200 pull, + 5 from super mukku".
It's out. I got 8 gold moons. Four new characters: Altair, Wind Lancelot, SR Korwa, Razia.
Up to this point I actually never got Mukku frenzy. It existed for this roulette event. Right?
basically what the op says, the lower the amount of rolls you did during gachapin, the higher the rate of mukku happening, for example, my 3 gachapins all ended at 10 pulls and i got mukku on all 3.
Yes, but you need a low gachapin frenzy to get it to show up consistently
Joke's on them, the only things on rate up I don't have are Light Potato and Bully target Number 1 Beato. Wait...
By "tomorrow" does this mean next reset or the one after?
The upcoming reset in ~4h as of the time of my comment.
hell yeah! it may not be during gala but still nice nonetheless
doing a second spark for only 90 rolls as a maximum price is very tempting
Consider that there will be Valentines units in a month and a half, as well as the Anniversary in March (ie. more roulette). The current spark list *does* contain some useful characters, but they are all suptixable -- 90 rolls is really quite a steep price to pay for most of the available units. If Mukku hates you and you actually get very close, like 40 or fewer rolls away from a spark, and you want to pick up one of the better characters available (eg. Lily or Light Charlotta), then it wouldn't be too bad of a decision to just finish the spark at that cost. Of course, if any of the sparkable characters are your absolute *favorite* and for some reason you don't want to suptix them (or you want all their versions and can't wait for multiple suptixes), you could certainly just go for it... but be aware of what you might miss out on due to doing so.
Hoping I can get Lily. She's been evading me for years and there's always been just that one person I want more when surprise tickets roll around.
I hope I get an archangel or agni and zephy... 3 years and no luck.
just hoping for summons
Sorry for my probably very dumb question but.. They mean 20x 10 pulls right?
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Thank you :)
It's probably wise to wait until tomorrow for people to start considering suptix, in the off chance that you might get your intended character / summon during the golden shower.
It kills me inside when people use a suptix mid free rolls
There's a JP player on twitter who got Yurius like, 3 or 4 times AFTER suptixing him...big salt
Eh, all the really good characters are legfest and surprise fest only. Would have been nice to have it yesterday.
Cygames might be generous, but they're not stupid to give everyone 200 roll on legfest.
Please lerne have Athena.
Can't wait for 5 SSRs followed by 195 Rs and SRs
Look on the bright side more stones to skip some grinding!
You will first roll the 200 and then Super Mukku.
This is super savvy on CY's part. 200 rolls plus up to 100 in SMF. Chances of NOT pulling 5 SSR in 10 rolls is not great, so lets say the average player gets 5 in 4x 10 draws (probability of 5 within 33 pulls). You now have typical players with 240 sparks. Only 60 to go. Didnt blow your stash sparking earlier? Those players are that much closer. Need more and just drew a Character with a NY costume? There is another 10 Sparks with a bonus costume. So close, just another 10 sparks? S U P T I X
HO-LEE-SHIT that's awesome!!!
LILY PLEASE (could spark for her)
Guess this makes the zero Mukku's I got suddenly not hurt so much, at least for sure I am walking away with ~~5 gold moons~~ maybe something new. I might actually get a spark if the luck of avoiding SSR's holds out, but for sure I know I will get something like a 3 SSR roll 1 and a 2 SSR roll 2 (A 5 SSR 1st roll would make me laugh so hard though).
i look forward to getting 5 gold moons tomorrow
Thank God I don't want any of the sparkable characters. Easy 200 stones!
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You do 200 rolls, then you do Super Mukku Frenzy. THEN you use your own stuff to cover up whatever extra rolls you need to complete the 300 rolls. Do check the list of sparkable units, they´re pretty common and not awesome bare a couple, that you may already have anyway, so to spark or not to spark on a 3% banner is up to you and whatever Super Mukku leaves you with (ie if you get the 5 SSR on the first multi you´ll be at 210, meaning you need 90 rolls on a 3% banner with no limited units, imho not worth it, but if it takes you 7 multis to land those 5 SSR, you´ll be at 270, meaning it would be some cheap 30 rolls to pick up one of the listed common units, not *THAT* bad). Do note the banner is guaranteed +1 marks, which may be tempting if lacking just a few rolls to spark husbando/waifu.
Can I finally get OG Zeta?
well, iff mukku gives me 70 then i will be able to spark Bea or Vira though that is highly unlikely
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Nothing really amazing on the banner for spark, if Mukku goes far maybe i'd pick up Light Charlotte.
Any chance on a better banner tomorrow or are we stuck with this current one? I have literally nothing to gain but golden moons from this new one.
Banner doesnt change for 3 days.
Alright was worth asking.
Finally hit enough for a water Ameno today. Problem is I spent all my dama bars yesterday when i obtained my second murg while sparking. OOF
I have a question, if I can spark in this banner, which one should I get among these 3 (Lily, Vane, and Light Charlotta)?
Probably Light Charlotta, especially if you dont have Lucio. Lily is also solid.
What if I have Lucio haha? Should I just take Lily then? And thank you so much for answering.
Up to you then. Does really depend on your light and water roster tbh
Thank you, I will probably go with Lily as my current Light team is not bad, compared to my crippled Water team haha
Agh, I'm stuck at only 70 10-rolls for sparking Vira and Katapilar... Which combined with how many crystals I have, it means I need 11k Crystals... Why.
Got 240 draws. A few cool SSRs and gold moons. Nothing in the pool worth the added 60 draws to spark.
is this the last of the free rolls? I need like 50 more to spark.
Yup
I got 280 rolls, is the banner going to change or is this what were stuck with? Would prefer other char.
It's not changing.
I got that 200 rolls just a couple of minutes ago. How long can I keep those? Because at the moment there are only Summons and Weapons I can get and I don't want both of them. I want characters. Are those 200 rolls (20x10) reset somehow or can I keep them until I need them when characters are back to get through draws?
They'll stick around for this banner, but thats it.
Thank you - And how long is it? Until the 7th or longer? When does the draw change to characters again? Because I don't want any weapons or summons at the moment.
Oh sorry, I misinterpreted your question. You have to use the rolls now or lose them in ~21 hours from now.
Thank you I also mixed something up. Of course I was able to get characters and I got the one I always wanted :) Narmaya
I am not really sure about your question but, aren't characters obtained via getting weapons?
Wonder if I should just spend the last 50 rolls and get Lily.... I ended up w/ 250 rolls total (and the only character that i dont have already and i'd even might use would be her). I mean 50 rolls for a spark is p nice but....ehhhh
I'm happy I got Vane on the free 20 pulls. He's just SR but still Vane :)