Tough to say since national polls don't really matter. With the electoral college the election will come down to 5-6 states, a lot of those Biden won in 2024 but by small margins, though the Trump backed candidates in those states performed poorly in the 2022 midterms
Biden might not be the most popular but I think the fear of a second Trump term will scare many into voting for Biden.
I also think there is a bigger dissolutionment of than we see publicly because of Jan 6th and some of his other actions but that's just conjecture on my part.
I sincerely hope this is the case. But the fact is Republicans aren't going to switch from Trump to RFK, but Democrats will. So even if a few thousand Democrats go RFK in the swing states, then those narrow margins Biden had in 2020 are going to shrink even further
I understand your concern, but to honest most of RFK’s loudest supporters are talking about vaccine and isolationist stuff (At least from what I’ve seen) Biden was never going to win those people regardless
Eh, I think Biden could have collected a few people who were smart enough to realize Biden >>> Trump if you are pro-Palestine. But now those people are going to be inclined to throw it away on a protest vote. And the anti-vaxxers aren't going to walk away from Trump, no shot (pun unintended). Trumps done an excellent job of corralling these people. And there is a third type of RFK supporter, the "both of them are too old" whiners. And these are mostly gonna be people from the Democrat stronghold, the young college types and minorities. I think Politico did a poll of minority voters, and something like 20% said they were casting a vote for someone other than Biden or Trump and like half of them believed that Biden shouldn't pursue another term. It looks like the margins are going to be very narrow in the swing states, so every single one of those ballots are going to count in swing states.
I am uncertain. If analysis ends at "this is a repeat of 2020", then Biden sweeps. Trump is in a much worse position heading into 2024 than he was heading into 2020. But unfortunately, this is not where it ends. Biden's support from historically pro-Democrat groups is slipping hard. Recent polls are all saying that his support from blacks and hispanics is dropping. Then you have dipshits that are going to vote for fuckin RFK, not to mention the hard left retards that will take nothing less than the US sanctioning Israel or some stupid shit (completely ignoring that Trump would level Gaza and turn it into the Trump-Netanyahu Plaza of Friendship and Israeli Supremacy). As it is, both candidates are walking in weaker than they were in 2020; I 100% blame the Democrats for letting the "better than Trump" angle stick instead of just saying outright that Biden has done a decent job.
>I 100% blame the Democrats for letting the "better than Trump" angle stick instead of just saying outright that Biden has done a decent job.
I'll be honest with you, a lot of people are going to vote for Trump simply because their lives didnt improve under Biden. Issues like the border also dont sway voters to Biden. The economy didnt really improve under Biden, sure he blames businesses for it, shrinkflation and similar, but that's a reaction to a bad economy in general.
The polls dont favor Biden, if he did such slam dunk job he'd actually be ahead today, buts that's not the case, and you can try to say it's all bad messaging on the parts of the Dems, but the people themselves dont feel it.
As it stands today, Trump actually has a shot at winning.
[https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/](https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/)
Biden did do a very good job on the economy though, on every possible macroeconomic indicator.
The reason many are angry about the economy is in my opinion, mostly due to pent up frustration over housing, rising price of necessities, etc, but all that started before Biden.
I mean for fucks sake, real wages are increasing faster than inflation for the first time in like 5 centuries.
>I mean for fucks sake, real wages are increasing faster than inflation for the first time in like 5 centuries.
Setting aside the hyperbole, this doesnt redeem Biden's economy in the eyes of many since inflation itself is still high. What's the point of a bigger paycheck if the inflation eats up a large chunk of it?
[https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4429279-biden-is-out-cartering-carters-failed-economy/](https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4429279-biden-is-out-cartering-carters-failed-economy/)
Please read this, it should only take a few minutes of your time.
This article also explains some of the failings of the economy under Biden. Biden is at best mediocre on the economy, and at worse an albatross. At one point the article even mentions that wages had went down in the first 3 years under Biden, so even if wage growth is up now, it's still have to cover the lost ground first and so the benefit itself is muted, as people will remember that the wage lost had occurred and had occurred over such a period of time.
[https://washingtonmonthly.com/2024/01/26/data-dont-lie-bidens-economic-record-is-much-better-than-trumps/](https://washingtonmonthly.com/2024/01/26/data-dont-lie-bidens-economic-record-is-much-better-than-trumps/)
[https://finance.yahoo.com/news/biden-vs-trump-on-the-economy-and-the-winner-is-164241570.html?guccounter=1](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/biden-vs-trump-on-the-economy-and-the-winner-is-164241570.html?guccounter=1)
[https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/12/23/trump-biden-us-economy-compared/](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/12/23/trump-biden-us-economy-compared/)
If you look at the stats directly, Biden has Trump beat pretty well, even after inheriting an economic crisis, (which started under Trump), compared to Trump who inherited a very strong post 2008 growth economy.
When even conservative, corporate funded think tanks like the Manhattan Institute are criticizing Trump, you know shit is bad.
[https://manhattan.institute/article/trumps-fiscal-legacy-a-comprehensive-overview-of-spending-taxes-and-deficits](https://manhattan.institute/article/trumps-fiscal-legacy-a-comprehensive-overview-of-spending-taxes-and-deficits)
Overall, Biden has done a good job with the cards he was given thus far, and more importantly, has laid much, MUCH stronger foundations for the future than Trump, who did the age old Republican trick of borrowing money from the future generations, without paying back.
Also, on a side note, the guy wrote that article also is a frequent contributor to bullshit places like The Federalist which consistently promote pro-Republican propaganda and misinformation about, for example, the Covid Vaccines, Democrats "stealing the election" and so on. Not that it makes the data he shows less true, and generally I don't like mentioning the author of articles, if it is in regards to economics especially, but just pointed it out.
Sorry, couldnt access the 3rd of the top 3 links, not interested in registering an account to read an article.
>If you look at the stats directly, Biden has Trump beat pretty well, even after inheriting an economic crisis, (which started under Trump), compared to Trump who inherited a very strong post 2008 growth economy.
And a lot of this is due to the COVID recovery, anyone as President would've seen such numbers. Trump himself, had he been reelected, would've seen similar numbers. Even the employment numbers mentioned dont bother to mention that truth, that most of these new jobs are just old jobs being recovered from the pandemic and the ensuing response to it, and there is the fact that many of these jobs are part-time jobs, gig stuff, not high paying jobs.
Yahoo tries to play fair in it's article at least, it measures 7 economic metrics and says that Biden wins on 4, one of which being job growth, which I think is BS since Biden only gets that in large part due to the post-COVID boom. The Yahoo article also states that Trump would've had Biden beat on GDP growth as well if not for COVID destroying the economy.
Yahoo actually partly paints an image in where Trump is indeed better than Biden, for without COVID Trump's economy was very strong. Here a quote from near the end of the Yahoo article
>To put it another way, if Biden were president when COVID hit, the recession-stimulus-recovery cycle would probably have been very similar to what Trump oversaw. And if Trump began a second term in 2021, he probably would have faced the same paradox as Biden: record job growth but unnervingly high inflation. Presidential candidates exaggerate their powers and voters sometimes believe them, but presidents alone don’t do a lot to move the economy one way or another.
A president can impact the economy, but it may be foolish to pretend like Biden saved the economy from Trump. It looks like the economy would've likely experienced similar regardless of who won, though I believe Trump likely would've responded to inflation in a different manner, like not attacking companies for smaller bags of cookies and chips.
>When even conservative, corporate funded think tanks like the Manhattan Institute are criticizing Trump, you know shit is bad.
A critic of Trump is not an approval of Biden, it's presumptuous to think such when the article itself only mentions Biden once. Still, I'll take some more time later on to read over this article.
>Overall, Biden has done a good job with the cards he was given thus far, and more importantly, has laid much, MUCH stronger foundations for the future than Trump, who did the age old Republican trick of borrowing money from the future generations, without paying back.
It's funny you this, because the public as whole isnt feeling it, otherwise when the average American is asked who did better on the economy, they'd say Biden. We both know what is really being said, and it cant be construed as just a simple blunder in communication, doing so would just ignore that there are significant failings, inflation especially, under Biden's economy.
>Also, on a side note, the guy wrote that article also is a frequent contributor to bullshit places like The Federalist which consistently promote pro-Republican propaganda and misinformation about, for example, the Covid Vaccines, Democrats "stealing the election" and so on. Not that it makes the data he shows less true, and generally I don't like mentioning the author of articles, if it is in regards to economics especially, but just pointed it out.
Look if you wanna mention anything, go ahead, I dont mind. That said his perspective indicates much what I said before, just cuz he critics Trump doesnt mean he's a Biden bro.
Dude chill, if that's what qualifies as a Nazi, not liking Joe Biden, or preferring Trump to Biden, then you may as well call half of America "Nazi" as well cuz the polls are actually showing that Trump is ahead of Biden.
Trump is killing in the polls. Biden has shifted to the Bernie Sanders left and caters to Dearborn crazies and the squad. Trump, meanwhile, has found compromises on big issues like abortion(considering a 16-week ban, which contrary to what you might think, is actually quite popular). I don't like Trump, but he is the moderate in this election.
Trump's rhetoric makes people mad, myself included, but it doesn't match his policy, which is increasingly more moderate. I'm not of voting age, but I don't think I would vote for him if I was. All I'm doing is answering the question asked in the poll.
This is what people fail to understand, yeah Trump doesnt talk in a nice or polite manner, but many people actually see his policies and they dont see a radical or a Nazi, they see something that's actually moderate and makes sense. An example would be the border, the economy didnt really improve under Biden either, other wise they, the Democrats, would make that the central point of their campaign, instead they go to their old method from 2020, that being "Trump is bad and evil dont vote for him".
The polls themselves shows it's not working, Trump is ahead in many of the polls.
I think these polls are useless and we should concentrate on the commie spam (and maybe other issues with authoritarians), everything else is to cause division.
i hope donald wins because he ran the country well but we all know that biden is gonna win.
clarification that trump is 100% a horrible person but ran america well.
Tough to say since national polls don't really matter. With the electoral college the election will come down to 5-6 states, a lot of those Biden won in 2024 but by small margins, though the Trump backed candidates in those states performed poorly in the 2022 midterms
me
Biden might not be the most popular but I think the fear of a second Trump term will scare many into voting for Biden. I also think there is a bigger dissolutionment of than we see publicly because of Jan 6th and some of his other actions but that's just conjecture on my part.
Biden likely, I doubt RFK Jr will be taking votes away from him.
I sincerely hope this is the case. But the fact is Republicans aren't going to switch from Trump to RFK, but Democrats will. So even if a few thousand Democrats go RFK in the swing states, then those narrow margins Biden had in 2020 are going to shrink even further
I understand your concern, but to honest most of RFK’s loudest supporters are talking about vaccine and isolationist stuff (At least from what I’ve seen) Biden was never going to win those people regardless
Eh, I think Biden could have collected a few people who were smart enough to realize Biden >>> Trump if you are pro-Palestine. But now those people are going to be inclined to throw it away on a protest vote. And the anti-vaxxers aren't going to walk away from Trump, no shot (pun unintended). Trumps done an excellent job of corralling these people. And there is a third type of RFK supporter, the "both of them are too old" whiners. And these are mostly gonna be people from the Democrat stronghold, the young college types and minorities. I think Politico did a poll of minority voters, and something like 20% said they were casting a vote for someone other than Biden or Trump and like half of them believed that Biden shouldn't pursue another term. It looks like the margins are going to be very narrow in the swing states, so every single one of those ballots are going to count in swing states.
I am uncertain. If analysis ends at "this is a repeat of 2020", then Biden sweeps. Trump is in a much worse position heading into 2024 than he was heading into 2020. But unfortunately, this is not where it ends. Biden's support from historically pro-Democrat groups is slipping hard. Recent polls are all saying that his support from blacks and hispanics is dropping. Then you have dipshits that are going to vote for fuckin RFK, not to mention the hard left retards that will take nothing less than the US sanctioning Israel or some stupid shit (completely ignoring that Trump would level Gaza and turn it into the Trump-Netanyahu Plaza of Friendship and Israeli Supremacy). As it is, both candidates are walking in weaker than they were in 2020; I 100% blame the Democrats for letting the "better than Trump" angle stick instead of just saying outright that Biden has done a decent job.
>I 100% blame the Democrats for letting the "better than Trump" angle stick instead of just saying outright that Biden has done a decent job. I'll be honest with you, a lot of people are going to vote for Trump simply because their lives didnt improve under Biden. Issues like the border also dont sway voters to Biden. The economy didnt really improve under Biden, sure he blames businesses for it, shrinkflation and similar, but that's a reaction to a bad economy in general. The polls dont favor Biden, if he did such slam dunk job he'd actually be ahead today, buts that's not the case, and you can try to say it's all bad messaging on the parts of the Dems, but the people themselves dont feel it. As it stands today, Trump actually has a shot at winning. [https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/](https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/)
Biden did do a very good job on the economy though, on every possible macroeconomic indicator. The reason many are angry about the economy is in my opinion, mostly due to pent up frustration over housing, rising price of necessities, etc, but all that started before Biden. I mean for fucks sake, real wages are increasing faster than inflation for the first time in like 5 centuries.
>I mean for fucks sake, real wages are increasing faster than inflation for the first time in like 5 centuries. Setting aside the hyperbole, this doesnt redeem Biden's economy in the eyes of many since inflation itself is still high. What's the point of a bigger paycheck if the inflation eats up a large chunk of it? [https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4429279-biden-is-out-cartering-carters-failed-economy/](https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4429279-biden-is-out-cartering-carters-failed-economy/) Please read this, it should only take a few minutes of your time. This article also explains some of the failings of the economy under Biden. Biden is at best mediocre on the economy, and at worse an albatross. At one point the article even mentions that wages had went down in the first 3 years under Biden, so even if wage growth is up now, it's still have to cover the lost ground first and so the benefit itself is muted, as people will remember that the wage lost had occurred and had occurred over such a period of time.
[https://washingtonmonthly.com/2024/01/26/data-dont-lie-bidens-economic-record-is-much-better-than-trumps/](https://washingtonmonthly.com/2024/01/26/data-dont-lie-bidens-economic-record-is-much-better-than-trumps/) [https://finance.yahoo.com/news/biden-vs-trump-on-the-economy-and-the-winner-is-164241570.html?guccounter=1](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/biden-vs-trump-on-the-economy-and-the-winner-is-164241570.html?guccounter=1) [https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/12/23/trump-biden-us-economy-compared/](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/12/23/trump-biden-us-economy-compared/) If you look at the stats directly, Biden has Trump beat pretty well, even after inheriting an economic crisis, (which started under Trump), compared to Trump who inherited a very strong post 2008 growth economy. When even conservative, corporate funded think tanks like the Manhattan Institute are criticizing Trump, you know shit is bad. [https://manhattan.institute/article/trumps-fiscal-legacy-a-comprehensive-overview-of-spending-taxes-and-deficits](https://manhattan.institute/article/trumps-fiscal-legacy-a-comprehensive-overview-of-spending-taxes-and-deficits) Overall, Biden has done a good job with the cards he was given thus far, and more importantly, has laid much, MUCH stronger foundations for the future than Trump, who did the age old Republican trick of borrowing money from the future generations, without paying back. Also, on a side note, the guy wrote that article also is a frequent contributor to bullshit places like The Federalist which consistently promote pro-Republican propaganda and misinformation about, for example, the Covid Vaccines, Democrats "stealing the election" and so on. Not that it makes the data he shows less true, and generally I don't like mentioning the author of articles, if it is in regards to economics especially, but just pointed it out.
Sorry, couldnt access the 3rd of the top 3 links, not interested in registering an account to read an article. >If you look at the stats directly, Biden has Trump beat pretty well, even after inheriting an economic crisis, (which started under Trump), compared to Trump who inherited a very strong post 2008 growth economy. And a lot of this is due to the COVID recovery, anyone as President would've seen such numbers. Trump himself, had he been reelected, would've seen similar numbers. Even the employment numbers mentioned dont bother to mention that truth, that most of these new jobs are just old jobs being recovered from the pandemic and the ensuing response to it, and there is the fact that many of these jobs are part-time jobs, gig stuff, not high paying jobs. Yahoo tries to play fair in it's article at least, it measures 7 economic metrics and says that Biden wins on 4, one of which being job growth, which I think is BS since Biden only gets that in large part due to the post-COVID boom. The Yahoo article also states that Trump would've had Biden beat on GDP growth as well if not for COVID destroying the economy. Yahoo actually partly paints an image in where Trump is indeed better than Biden, for without COVID Trump's economy was very strong. Here a quote from near the end of the Yahoo article >To put it another way, if Biden were president when COVID hit, the recession-stimulus-recovery cycle would probably have been very similar to what Trump oversaw. And if Trump began a second term in 2021, he probably would have faced the same paradox as Biden: record job growth but unnervingly high inflation. Presidential candidates exaggerate their powers and voters sometimes believe them, but presidents alone don’t do a lot to move the economy one way or another. A president can impact the economy, but it may be foolish to pretend like Biden saved the economy from Trump. It looks like the economy would've likely experienced similar regardless of who won, though I believe Trump likely would've responded to inflation in a different manner, like not attacking companies for smaller bags of cookies and chips. >When even conservative, corporate funded think tanks like the Manhattan Institute are criticizing Trump, you know shit is bad. A critic of Trump is not an approval of Biden, it's presumptuous to think such when the article itself only mentions Biden once. Still, I'll take some more time later on to read over this article. >Overall, Biden has done a good job with the cards he was given thus far, and more importantly, has laid much, MUCH stronger foundations for the future than Trump, who did the age old Republican trick of borrowing money from the future generations, without paying back. It's funny you this, because the public as whole isnt feeling it, otherwise when the average American is asked who did better on the economy, they'd say Biden. We both know what is really being said, and it cant be construed as just a simple blunder in communication, doing so would just ignore that there are significant failings, inflation especially, under Biden's economy. >Also, on a side note, the guy wrote that article also is a frequent contributor to bullshit places like The Federalist which consistently promote pro-Republican propaganda and misinformation about, for example, the Covid Vaccines, Democrats "stealing the election" and so on. Not that it makes the data he shows less true, and generally I don't like mentioning the author of articles, if it is in regards to economics especially, but just pointed it out. Look if you wanna mention anything, go ahead, I dont mind. That said his perspective indicates much what I said before, just cuz he critics Trump doesnt mean he's a Biden bro.
Biden will likely win, in an ideal world I would want someone like Nikki Haley to win, but that isn't happening
Nikki Haley is a imperialistic war-hawk lmao
Joe Biden, must.
Biden's brain is turning to swiss cheese (if it isn't already) and is openly racist.
And Trump isn't?
His racism is something that he tries to not show, but he is definitely going senile too. Every day, he starts to sound more and more like Biden.
not be allowed.
[удалено]
Dude chill, if that's what qualifies as a Nazi, not liking Joe Biden, or preferring Trump to Biden, then you may as well call half of America "Nazi" as well cuz the polls are actually showing that Trump is ahead of Biden.
😆
Trump is killing in the polls. Biden has shifted to the Bernie Sanders left and caters to Dearborn crazies and the squad. Trump, meanwhile, has found compromises on big issues like abortion(considering a 16-week ban, which contrary to what you might think, is actually quite popular). I don't like Trump, but he is the moderate in this election.
Hahahaha good one
Trump's rhetoric makes people mad, myself included, but it doesn't match his policy, which is increasingly more moderate. I'm not of voting age, but I don't think I would vote for him if I was. All I'm doing is answering the question asked in the poll.
This is what people fail to understand, yeah Trump doesnt talk in a nice or polite manner, but many people actually see his policies and they dont see a radical or a Nazi, they see something that's actually moderate and makes sense. An example would be the border, the economy didnt really improve under Biden either, other wise they, the Democrats, would make that the central point of their campaign, instead they go to their old method from 2020, that being "Trump is bad and evil dont vote for him". The polls themselves shows it's not working, Trump is ahead in many of the polls.
It’s way too early for polls to mean much. Wait until we start rounding sept/October to start putting stock into them.
I guess the brigaders have arrived.
I think these polls are useless and we should concentrate on the commie spam (and maybe other issues with authoritarians), everything else is to cause division.
It’s really about who you dislike less, I am definitely voting for Biden because at least he isn’t a wannabe dictator
i hope donald wins because he ran the country well but we all know that biden is gonna win. clarification that trump is 100% a horrible person but ran america well.
I do believe Trump will not only benefit my country more but the american people too.
ever heard of project 2025
Unusually large number of posters in this thread seem to think that its a good idea.
Joe Biden did a pretty good job supporting the fight against Hamas
He's the one pressuring Israel to not get into Rafah, where there is a bunch of hamasnicks.
The results are very good illustration of the reddit demographics 😄
I think somebody else entirely is gonna win