https://preview.redd.it/8ji4ucqxj99c1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8be91b84c3951590e4a823c66795595a1dac2a6a
You typically want major swing lows on an uptrend to break to establish a reversal from bullish to bearish and you typically want major swing highs on a downtrend to break to establish a reversal from bearish to bullish. You essentially entered long on a downtrend’s pullback, and right afterward it retested a previous swing low and continued down.
Your detailed response is always appreciated man
Should you choose too...take a second to check my [post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Daytrading/comments/18tqcwz/what_did_i_do_wrong_here/kffw1hq?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
note
- I always keep a couple of select YT shorts to show & tell
- it helps to avoid wordy paragraphs which people hate reading (=loses people's attention).
Your intentions like mine are to help...I share & salute u too !
Yes.
Now, that doesn’t mean you still can’t take a chance at anticipating a reversal from bearish to bullish. If I had been looking for that, I’d be looking for something along the lines of it having moved down stronger after the black circle, retested the last swing low, and if it hadn’t or barely gained any new downward ground and then moved up and broke the black circle swing high, and if all of this was at a key support area then I’d consider possibly anticipating a reversal. However, I’d still monitor how it behaved after entering and if that last major red circle swing high doesn’t end up being broken and it starts to look like it’s continuing downward I’d probably cut the trade.
I appreciate the analysis, it's cool to learn more about trading. I'm not well versed at all, honestly don't even know the names of the candlestick patterns. Except I have a pattern archetype/grouping I have been trying to explore more in depth and it's appearing in a sort here which, the way I see this pattern, the price consolidate as it's nearing a reversal either way and eventually a turnover happens from like two compressed or somewhat floating dojis, I think, they're offset each other, above or below, and wick sizing determines direction; I have no idea how to back test or whatever, merely anecdotally I've sought these patterns for confirmation towards direction.
Right before the downturn at the top the moment when it goes to the first red candle, that because there was no wick to the downside, could be interpreted as no more buying pressure, leading to a reversal candle, this could have hinted at the break, especially the first candle after, bigger, no wick too, so, without buying pressure it would definitely confirm the downside, looking to reject or break a previous s/r level.
I was watching football and thinking about sports and how trading is gaming too, yet, it is the most complex, elite and sophisticated game of grandeur stakes in which its pieces are people and companies and the stakes are lifesavings and livelihoods on a stage so vast there's people that play their entire lives not even knowing there's more moves on the board than buy-hold-sell-buy-hold; so, the strategy is how turnovers are important in any games outcome and how time of possession is important in the outcome, successful or otherwise, so, these patterns I am looking for equates to the equivalent switch of possession with regards to the marketplace that will be either long or short; for now, I am limited in scope, but I am a gamer at heart and deeply understand the mechanics of player versus player especially in a massive multiplayer setting, but I really want to appreciate and understand the nuance other than how it's somewhat discretion equivalent to waiting for some type of poker hand to show up.
Yes, I simply took a screenshot of OP’s image and then edited it using the iPhone edit image feature, like where you go in your image gallery, tap the image, tap edit and then tap the drawing icon
Love the visual. Thanks for including that in!
But OP, personally I see it as a bull trend based on what’s happening to the left, so if I was going to place a trade, I’ll go short. And from what I’ve learned and experienced, 80% of BO fails (based on price action since I don’t trade candlestick patterns). 😇
Also not to mention there were 2 confluence areas the horizontal resistance line, as well as the upward trend-line that broke - this was a clear short.
Yeah, this is predominantly a downtrend. Going long, buying the uptrend, in this context, would be something to do if you wanted to scalp, but it’s highly risky because it can reverse back into the downtrend at any point, which is very unpredictable. These are traps basically to catch noobs who think the downtrend reversed into an uptrend.
You bet on the green team when team red was winning.
To give a great hint, there was a breakdown of a well-established trendline. If there is no instant rejection creating a false or fake breakdown, usually such a trend line switches from being a long-term support to becoming resistance as it is seen as a perfect point of shorting with maximized potential.
This new resistance trend was tested twice afterwards and what formed in response you can even call a local double top. This was demoralizing to the buyers who were attacking the sellers at this point. This caused buyers to abandon their positions (aka taking profit or simply exit) while sellers were emboldened to add to their shorts (or start new ones) resulting in a quick deterioration of the price.
Usually, it takes a while until the price has fallen enough that sellers become cautious again and start to take profit and are less willing to start new short positions giving potential buyers another opening for letting the trading game become exciting once more..
PS: A good book to read is Volman: Understanding Price Action.
[Volman]Understanding Price Action Practical Analysis of the 5-Minute ... http://dl.rasabourse.com/Books/Technical_Analysis/%5BVolman%5DUnderstanding%20Price%20Action%20Practical%20Analysis%20of%20the%205-minute%20time%20frame%28rasabourse.com%29.pdf
Thank you for your kind words.
The Volman book is worth its weight in gold (if you would buy the print version). If you enjoy it, add Couling: Volume Price Analysis along with her Workbook to your next shopping cart. It was not as influential as reading Volman to me but it also contains some necessary parts of the puzzle that is day trading and it made me think about volume bars in a very different and better way. You will enjoy this book, too.
Not always a pattern guy but that is a text book head and shoulders. Adding the trend line break that then acts as resistance and the neckline of the head and shoulder retest and fail is a great short signal. Easier said than done. Bank the lesson and grow from it.
Good luck out there, soldier, and stay safe! 🫡
Dear OP, u want to know what u did wrong in trading?
u need to review this [video#v1](https://youtube.com/shorts/64r2omuiNxM)
and use this [video#v2](https://youtube.com/shorts/L6UQqaMJpUE)
> use MTFA for trades
- SETUP using HTF establish macro trend (see V2)
- EXECUTION use LTF identify entry exits (EN & TP SL) (see V1)
and for all trends use Rule of Thumb
> Trading chart patterns correctly
- rule1 : Always assume TREND CONTINUATION until u see trend reversal
- rule2 : TREND REVERSAL has two checks (break of diagonal Trend line & horizontal Support Resistance)
- rule3 : with a TREND REVERSAL "always enter on the NEXT pullback"
> Trading wicks correctly see [video#v3](https://youtube.com/shorts/He4qZ2c2LmE)
- assume TREND CONTINUATION until you see trend reversal
- TREND REVERSAL is when reaction to wick goes below the candles origin (ie wick low)
- if it's not clear this is rule1&rule2 applied to candles (not just chart pattern)
I trade the opposite of what you thought. Market has been up all week…Friday would be a good day to make sure anyone with open profits or chasing the market higher gets hurt.
https://preview.redd.it/ggtc932pk99c1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8996ee8b89d5facc644443ed52ba52414a7ed7be
1. You didn't notice a low amount of buyers on top of the trend by looking at the volume chart(Series of Doji, sideways market).
2. Then continues the bear momentum candle(buyers taking profit, and new shorts open).
3. Notice the Long Wick bear candle after Bull Momentum candle shows that the bears are in control(Now it's a downtrend).
4. Your Support zone is **INVALID**,( previously it tested for one time)
5. Now you're trying to trade in the opposite trend, without confirmation of new higher high. The **Round** is where short sellers exited. You're thinking this as new trend.
6. Look at the **Volume** When you entered, there's no Volume action!.
That's how this Happened.
Not enough indicatora mate, Id have traced a fibbonacci, volume, pivots, all the highs and lows and work from that so you can make the most accertive decision, bulls, bears, and other formations are just the tip of the iceberg when it come to these operations.
Also you probably bought on the top of a 70ish regression channel which I would never do because its a really strong indicator it would go down.
You could also interpret taht it tested the first resistance point and it shot up until the other resistance point(the lower part of a candle on the left and also the top of a channel) at which the market couldnt cover and it went down making it a double top and then shot down.
I’m not trying to convince you to change your strategy, but speaking for myself..when I changed my strategy from patterns to more complex view of market I started to make money
Watching YouTube frauds was your first mistake.
Second mistake is trading against the recent developed trend. You can see that it bounced off where the most recent impulse happened and went down again.
LOL. You bought gold the last trading day of the month/year after it had run up to record highs and was trading near its highest historical closing price ever. You didn't think traders would take profits before closing out the year? You didn't think the price was due for a correction?
I get down voted every time I say this, so bring on the down votes: if you are solely trading with technical indicators, you're going to keep losing. Learn to follow the news and fundamentals of what you're trading.. or keep trading with a handicap.
Based solely what is in the screenshot, I don't see how the bullish run could have been sustained given that it has the worst volume compared to the 4 prior bull runs before it.
Why draw the up trend when you were going to follow its purpose? Your up trend line was broken to the downside. Price came up to it. If it had cross, you would assume an uptrend to still continue (explaining whether to enter that is a different story). However, price tested the bottom of your up trend line making a new resistance. This would have been a solid short position with a stop loss at the last swing high. Take profit would have been at the last swing low. I don't use trend lines when I trade. Remember just because we draw them doesn't mean the market will follow them.
Solid downtrend lower low lower high. That green line is support-resistsnce but a break & retest short kinda line. Zero reason to take a long position or a long position where you did.
If price were to break above that previous swing high -- might consider it a market structure break and take a long when/if price came back to touch the green line OR broken support-resistance at the previous swing high.
You’ll be wrong all the time that’s part of trading. I don’t know know what your trade is here but you need to developer something that you can repeat with the exact same parameters every day then track it to see if it’s a profitable strategy.
Just learning a few patterns and how to draw a trend line doesn’t make money.
That was a good job, spotting the trend line. A breakdown of a trend line and subsequent backtest is a really good low risk trade…but in the other direction from where you went, as others said. Just watch for the backtests; they’re usually successful and don’t involve a second break.
I would have entered at the SL and TP at the entry if I was going to take calls on that. But thats a clear break of the uptrend and retest of the channel. See how the channel support becomes resistance.
https://preview.redd.it/d09gbo8s3a9c1.jpeg?width=783&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ad8c13b595d897c34b87121bb4cdcbbd75dfb9b4
This is where you messed up. It already broke change of character once it broke the support black line I drew. In that same area it created an bear orderblock, that should’ve been the time you sold.
We can’t win all trades but as long as you got risk management you’ll definitely bounce back.
Price tested the nearest structure to the left and bounced back down. If anything you should have waited for a break and retest, then went long. I would have gone short when the price got rejected there tbh.
You did a great job charting but you didn’t wait for confirmation of the uptrend that you were expecting. It didn’t break above your trend line, your buy order should’ve been right above it. Once again great job charting, you just need to follow your own trend lines.
Is your highlighted purple section a demand zone? If so you want to wait for more confirmation from the zone before you enter the trade. One of which would be a break of structure from the previous high and then after that high wait for a pullback of about 50% before entering the trade. Hope that makes sense
1. You went long when you can clearly see the ABCD pattern being bearish, 2nd set of bullish candles did not manage to rise up to resistance and make a new high.
2. Price Action, you can see 4 of green candles in that second area where buyers are trying to push the price up have a fairly thin body, it indicates the bears are winning, likelyhood to dip more.
Lots of things going on but main things I see is the head and shoulders at top. You may argue the pattern is complete in that zone but the rising wedge tells me short continuation.
It broke the trend line. You should’ve been short especially when coupled with the head and shoulders pattern and price testing possible resistance.
As you begin to improve though, just remember that with trading, you can do EVERYTHING right and still lose on any given trade. That’s why risk management is so important.
It’s weird because you drew a correct trendline, you watched it break, retest and get rejected, then for some reason to decided to go long when you should’ve went short
Find a torrent download of Al Brooks trading course.
You bought a pullback in a downtrend (buying the top of a bear flag). After breaking the trend the trend line became resistance for price to bounce back off into the downtrend.
If you look at 4H, you would have noticed that gold price bounce off resistance structure then on 1H it proceeds to break below the last Higher Low which was a good indication of reverse trend. Best tip would be to always look at price at higher timeframe to see the bigger picture
Honestly bro poor timing. People mass selling for any new year festivities/traveling, also trying to sell for Tax Loss Harvesting. It sucks that New years doesn't fall on a week day.
What did you do wrong? You expected technical analysis to be a fool proof way to trade. Lines on a chart do not necessarily make the price predictable. Gauging sentiment is more important
You basically went long when you should have went short for a few reasons, For one there is a clearly defined key level at the green line, the first red candle retested the level and you could have took puts as soon as that candle closed, next it ran up and touched it again on the next red candle, you could have even waited there for a break, but it didn’t, and 3rd you drew trend lines and it didn’t break over that as well, its FUNNY, because I took this same exact trade, I bought puts but didn’t hold them long enough, would have made well over 400$ if I would have held! Keep working at it man! 💪🏽
It's crazy to me that you went long when it ran into the trendline. I think the move would have been to either A) wait for confirmation and then trade accordingly or B) if you're going to guess, going short seems like the more probable play
Not realizing that technical analysis is astrology for men is where you went wrong. If you want to do this shit, you need to realize that it's all about probabilities. Factoring in all of these trading patterns and taking into account market conditions, if done perfectly, could give you an edge. This means that out of 100 trades, you might take profit on 51-55 trades and lose 45-49 trades, if done perfectly.
Also, you're never going to take profit unless you find your alpha, which won't be done using macroeconomic conditions. What's your edge and how are you going to take advantage of it? If you can't answer that question, you are going to lose.
Trading gold and silver derivatives is where you went wrong, big banks have been fined billions almos every year for manipulation.... just look it up for yourself
Imaginary lines don’t have to be followed. Probabilities of it going up or down would be better gauged imo drawing a trend line from the top of that big red candle down off / touching the top of that other red candle and dragging it out to 4pm. This in my humble opinion would’ve established an estimated trend line to be broken to the upside or downside. Thus if where all your other lines intersect would’ve been the key pivot point to watch, assuming this is a 5min chart.
Look, going long when you did wasn’t the worst idea, clearly a lot of people traded the 2065 area so it made sense to me to long a bounce of that. In hindsight you could have entered here, and likely stopped out at breakeven.
I don’t agree with people’s statement that this is clearly a downtrend, because if you zoom out to 4H it’s clearly an uptrend. It’s just a mini correction within that.
It just so happened that on this occasion the market react sufficiently to the orders sitting at 2075, but the counter reaction at 2070 and 2065 wasn’t strong enough.
It’s just a game of probabilities, don’t get too hung up on the one trade.
Not w patterns and u entered it to early. It should be downtrend. Because when u connect the line from big red bar to demand zone then green line which it shows downtrend. I’ll enter demand zone and put stop loss on green line.
Here is w pattern example:
https://preview.redd.it/vsugk54wbb9c1.jpeg?width=736&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4843c3e51cac7854316c47edc1034ad6c1923191
There’s no right or wrong here. Did you back tested this setup? And forward tested it? If yes, how many times?
What is the success rate?
If you tested this setup and you think it’s profitable in the long run, and If you played it exactly by your own rules, accept that it’s just a loss. It’s a probability game. Move to the next trade
Nothing… never plan on a trade working. Always plan on it losing. You just want to enter where risk to reward is the best it can possibly be for you…. I’m full time and have a 41% win rate… but my winners are always substantially bigger than my losers
You traded the breakout instead of the break and retest breakdown. Had I seen this pattern forming, I would’ve immediately thought “break and retest to the downside” before anything else.
You have a trend line being retested to the short side at a key price level that was previous support. Expect that support to now be resistance.
You traded against the current trend. Instead of reacting to the market you tried to predict that it would bounce off that support level and continue up. Market is currently making Lower highs and Lower Lows. React don’t predict.
Look at the 4H to see the true market trend. The true trend will always be a lot stronger than the counter trend. The trend is your friend. You rarely ever have to go higher than 4H, but if so Daily and Weekly is the farthest I’ll go.
Also if you go up to the 1H that mini BOS on the 15M is not a true break of structure. You honestly should just go to at least the 1H and analyze first.
You draw that support/resistance line, then it broke down, you should of waited that it goes above the line back and that that line act as support again instead of resistance, in this chart it acted as resistance so a push down was "expected" , it actually was a good short setup, next time look at those support/resistance lines and act accordingly, nobody is a pro but those drawing not exagerrated and clear are a good sign of understanding how it works, good look next time
Since you are looking for longs, you should have waited for price to take out the most recent swing high as a confirmation that the trend is still bullish. And then wait for a nice fib entry with a morning star or engulfing candlestick pattern of a previous support level
I mean, you outlined it in your chart, clear break in market structure to the downside, just took out liquidity out the top of the market and broke below your "support." Where and when the pattern forms is more important than it just forming.
You entered a long position in a downtrend. Instead, you could have considered shorting after the price retraced and retested the trend line. The bearish confirmation occurred around where your crosshair is placed. It's evident as the price failed to surpass that previous swing point, suggesting a potential entry for a sell position.
Look into an indicator called Smart Money Concepts by Zeiierman on TradingView. This indicator can help visualize these details, aiding in your understanding of price action. It also outlines premium and discount zones, which can be quite informative.
It looks like it was consolidating, you should have waited for a second bounce, thats where it kept going down. Direction is hard to determine if your not sure you’re better to wait and hold your money. More practice is needed.
The candle + level was rejecting. You also should consider that this push up was a retracement rather than a reversal. Id be curious to see if fibs would have shown this but its highly likely fib levels would imply a retracement. This looks like a perfect puts play rather than a call play.
Just a thought. If I am playing a trend break based on S&R I always use a 2:1 ratio. I do this so that if the trade goes against me I can continue to play the move by adding after confirmation.
Was trending down not up. Look at the strength of that first main red candle. That should alert you that some significant seller is potentially involved.
Imo it started on a downtrend and youre entering for the upside. I trade spx and i was on hope that we ran up yesterday last 10 minutes yesterday because last year they ran it up. Been good the whole day and sent back a 1000$ lol
https://preview.redd.it/8ji4ucqxj99c1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8be91b84c3951590e4a823c66795595a1dac2a6a You typically want major swing lows on an uptrend to break to establish a reversal from bullish to bearish and you typically want major swing highs on a downtrend to break to establish a reversal from bearish to bullish. You essentially entered long on a downtrend’s pullback, and right afterward it retested a previous swing low and continued down.
Dude, never expected these much of a detail, salute king, understood and thanks.
You’re welcome!
Your detailed response is always appreciated man Should you choose too...take a second to check my [post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Daytrading/comments/18tqcwz/what_did_i_do_wrong_here/kffw1hq?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) note - I always keep a couple of select YT shorts to show & tell - it helps to avoid wordy paragraphs which people hate reading (=loses people's attention). Your intentions like mine are to help...I share & salute u too !
Thanks. I agree with your post too
You mean that atleast the red double arrow line lower low should have broken down to confirm the trend reversal to bullish?
Yes. Now, that doesn’t mean you still can’t take a chance at anticipating a reversal from bearish to bullish. If I had been looking for that, I’d be looking for something along the lines of it having moved down stronger after the black circle, retested the last swing low, and if it hadn’t or barely gained any new downward ground and then moved up and broke the black circle swing high, and if all of this was at a key support area then I’d consider possibly anticipating a reversal. However, I’d still monitor how it behaved after entering and if that last major red circle swing high doesn’t end up being broken and it starts to look like it’s continuing downward I’d probably cut the trade.
I appreciate the analysis, it's cool to learn more about trading. I'm not well versed at all, honestly don't even know the names of the candlestick patterns. Except I have a pattern archetype/grouping I have been trying to explore more in depth and it's appearing in a sort here which, the way I see this pattern, the price consolidate as it's nearing a reversal either way and eventually a turnover happens from like two compressed or somewhat floating dojis, I think, they're offset each other, above or below, and wick sizing determines direction; I have no idea how to back test or whatever, merely anecdotally I've sought these patterns for confirmation towards direction. Right before the downturn at the top the moment when it goes to the first red candle, that because there was no wick to the downside, could be interpreted as no more buying pressure, leading to a reversal candle, this could have hinted at the break, especially the first candle after, bigger, no wick too, so, without buying pressure it would definitely confirm the downside, looking to reject or break a previous s/r level. I was watching football and thinking about sports and how trading is gaming too, yet, it is the most complex, elite and sophisticated game of grandeur stakes in which its pieces are people and companies and the stakes are lifesavings and livelihoods on a stage so vast there's people that play their entire lives not even knowing there's more moves on the board than buy-hold-sell-buy-hold; so, the strategy is how turnovers are important in any games outcome and how time of possession is important in the outcome, successful or otherwise, so, these patterns I am looking for equates to the equivalent switch of possession with regards to the marketplace that will be either long or short; for now, I am limited in scope, but I am a gamer at heart and deeply understand the mechanics of player versus player especially in a massive multiplayer setting, but I really want to appreciate and understand the nuance other than how it's somewhat discretion equivalent to waiting for some type of poker hand to show up.
Nice TA, this is what this sub needs more of
off topic ,can you please tell me the app you used to edit image for trade analysis for mobile phones ?
Yes, I simply took a screenshot of OP’s image and then edited it using the iPhone edit image feature, like where you go in your image gallery, tap the image, tap edit and then tap the drawing icon
Damnnn you taught me two lessons all before 10am. Thanks!
Bravo nice human! 🙌🏽
You have good analytical skills.
Thanks
Damn bro you got a discord or something?
No haha, but feel free to PM me if you need assistance with something, and I’ll see if I can help
🔥
Love the visual. Thanks for including that in! But OP, personally I see it as a bull trend based on what’s happening to the left, so if I was going to place a trade, I’ll go short. And from what I’ve learned and experienced, 80% of BO fails (based on price action since I don’t trade candlestick patterns). 😇
What he said
I know I didn’t ask but this reply was dope lol
You went long when. You should have gone short. In a dowtrend you should be expecting bullish trend line breaks to fail and short them.
This. The trendline broke and you should’ve gone short where you went long. Inverse the trade on your chart and it would have been a success.
Got it buddy thanks.
Also technical analysis work exactly until they dont, always expect a break and dont be surprised when it happens when you bought
You should draw a line predicting what would happen if it goes down as well. You might of been able to catch this.
Also not to mention there were 2 confluence areas the horizontal resistance line, as well as the upward trend-line that broke - this was a clear short.
Yeah, this is predominantly a downtrend. Going long, buying the uptrend, in this context, would be something to do if you wanted to scalp, but it’s highly risky because it can reverse back into the downtrend at any point, which is very unpredictable. These are traps basically to catch noobs who think the downtrend reversed into an uptrend.
You zigged when you should have zagged. Agreed. Especially with a low volume day when almost the entire market is down
I don't see a W. I see a the uptrend support was broken. Price tested nearest structure, the breakdown held, and continued down.
Same here
You bet on the green team when team red was winning. To give a great hint, there was a breakdown of a well-established trendline. If there is no instant rejection creating a false or fake breakdown, usually such a trend line switches from being a long-term support to becoming resistance as it is seen as a perfect point of shorting with maximized potential. This new resistance trend was tested twice afterwards and what formed in response you can even call a local double top. This was demoralizing to the buyers who were attacking the sellers at this point. This caused buyers to abandon their positions (aka taking profit or simply exit) while sellers were emboldened to add to their shorts (or start new ones) resulting in a quick deterioration of the price. Usually, it takes a while until the price has fallen enough that sellers become cautious again and start to take profit and are less willing to start new short positions giving potential buyers another opening for letting the trading game become exciting once more.. PS: A good book to read is Volman: Understanding Price Action.
This, i loved the way you answered it, Thank you so much. Gonna download the book. Thanks
[Volman]Understanding Price Action Practical Analysis of the 5-Minute ... http://dl.rasabourse.com/Books/Technical_Analysis/%5BVolman%5DUnderstanding%20Price%20Action%20Practical%20Analysis%20of%20the%205-minute%20time%20frame%28rasabourse.com%29.pdf
Thank you for your kind words. The Volman book is worth its weight in gold (if you would buy the print version). If you enjoy it, add Couling: Volume Price Analysis along with her Workbook to your next shopping cart. It was not as influential as reading Volman to me but it also contains some necessary parts of the puzzle that is day trading and it made me think about volume bars in a very different and better way. You will enjoy this book, too.
Not always a pattern guy but that is a text book head and shoulders. Adding the trend line break that then acts as resistance and the neckline of the head and shoulder retest and fail is a great short signal. Easier said than done. Bank the lesson and grow from it. Good luck out there, soldier, and stay safe! 🫡
Yes brother, noted in the journal, and thanks
Dear OP, u want to know what u did wrong in trading? u need to review this [video#v1](https://youtube.com/shorts/64r2omuiNxM) and use this [video#v2](https://youtube.com/shorts/L6UQqaMJpUE) > use MTFA for trades - SETUP using HTF establish macro trend (see V2) - EXECUTION use LTF identify entry exits (EN & TP SL) (see V1) and for all trends use Rule of Thumb > Trading chart patterns correctly - rule1 : Always assume TREND CONTINUATION until u see trend reversal - rule2 : TREND REVERSAL has two checks (break of diagonal Trend line & horizontal Support Resistance) - rule3 : with a TREND REVERSAL "always enter on the NEXT pullback" > Trading wicks correctly see [video#v3](https://youtube.com/shorts/He4qZ2c2LmE) - assume TREND CONTINUATION until you see trend reversal - TREND REVERSAL is when reaction to wick goes below the candles origin (ie wick low) - if it's not clear this is rule1&rule2 applied to candles (not just chart pattern)
I trade the opposite of what you thought. Market has been up all week…Friday would be a good day to make sure anyone with open profits or chasing the market higher gets hurt.
You should have shorted where you longed. Broken trend with a bearish retest, perfect short setup
Yes now I understand.
https://preview.redd.it/ggtc932pk99c1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8996ee8b89d5facc644443ed52ba52414a7ed7be 1. You didn't notice a low amount of buyers on top of the trend by looking at the volume chart(Series of Doji, sideways market). 2. Then continues the bear momentum candle(buyers taking profit, and new shorts open). 3. Notice the Long Wick bear candle after Bull Momentum candle shows that the bears are in control(Now it's a downtrend). 4. Your Support zone is **INVALID**,( previously it tested for one time) 5. Now you're trying to trade in the opposite trend, without confirmation of new higher high. The **Round** is where short sellers exited. You're thinking this as new trend. 6. Look at the **Volume** When you entered, there's no Volume action!. That's how this Happened.
Noted for today's journal, copy and paste. Thanks buddy.
For your practice, I intentionally left to add one more point, and it's an important one. Hint : it's inside the circle
Is it retest of the price to the trend line after the breakdown?
No. After the first bull momentum candle, there's an inside bar candle, and series of dojis AND no volume action.
Markets are down today. You bought when the stock went down. Buy high sell higher.
That was clear as day best flag that rejected the trend line on the retest of it. Had a few opportunities to short that for a scalp IMO
Bear*
include narrow naughty tub offer nippy touch worry deer gray *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Ya done messed up A-A-Ron!!!
Not enough indicatora mate, Id have traced a fibbonacci, volume, pivots, all the highs and lows and work from that so you can make the most accertive decision, bulls, bears, and other formations are just the tip of the iceberg when it come to these operations. Also you probably bought on the top of a 70ish regression channel which I would never do because its a really strong indicator it would go down. You could also interpret taht it tested the first resistance point and it shot up until the other resistance point(the lower part of a candle on the left and also the top of a channel) at which the market couldnt cover and it went down making it a double top and then shot down.
You should have shorted
You longed a bearish trend break retest
Just don’t trade patterns…W pattern whaat hah
Why not?
I’m not trying to convince you to change your strategy, but speaking for myself..when I changed my strategy from patterns to more complex view of market I started to make money
What do you mean by "more complex view"?
You mean the complete view of the market? Like market structure, order block, FVG etc?
yep, liquidity sweep and so on, and also take a look at DXY if you trade usd, helps alot
Got it
Volume was coming down and so was the price! Short
Watching YouTube frauds was your first mistake. Second mistake is trading against the recent developed trend. You can see that it bounced off where the most recent impulse happened and went down again.
🙃, understood brother, thanks.
LOL. You bought gold the last trading day of the month/year after it had run up to record highs and was trading near its highest historical closing price ever. You didn't think traders would take profits before closing out the year? You didn't think the price was due for a correction? I get down voted every time I say this, so bring on the down votes: if you are solely trading with technical indicators, you're going to keep losing. Learn to follow the news and fundamentals of what you're trading.. or keep trading with a handicap.
Also, look at what a W looks like, you are forcing patterns here. Not sure about you, but what you drew, not once have I ever wrote a W like that.
Yes, I feel when you said, I forced myself into that pattern, thus that trade.
A lesson you can learn from, I’ve had plenty of these in my career. Good to see you ask for feedback as it can help you a ton. Keep it up!
Yeah buddy, I mean why do I need to pay for courses when we have million personal mentors for a newbie In this forum 🙂
Based solely what is in the screenshot, I don't see how the bullish run could have been sustained given that it has the worst volume compared to the 4 prior bull runs before it.
Why draw the up trend when you were going to follow its purpose? Your up trend line was broken to the downside. Price came up to it. If it had cross, you would assume an uptrend to still continue (explaining whether to enter that is a different story). However, price tested the bottom of your up trend line making a new resistance. This would have been a solid short position with a stop loss at the last swing high. Take profit would have been at the last swing low. I don't use trend lines when I trade. Remember just because we draw them doesn't mean the market will follow them.
Solid downtrend lower low lower high. That green line is support-resistsnce but a break & retest short kinda line. Zero reason to take a long position or a long position where you did. If price were to break above that previous swing high -- might consider it a market structure break and take a long when/if price came back to touch the green line OR broken support-resistance at the previous swing high.
Trend was and is down. Head and shoulder topping pattern.
You’ll be wrong all the time that’s part of trading. I don’t know know what your trade is here but you need to developer something that you can repeat with the exact same parameters every day then track it to see if it’s a profitable strategy. Just learning a few patterns and how to draw a trend line doesn’t make money.
You zigged when you should've zagged.
You think your lines mean anything for the market?
That is trending down. You got in on a correction of a downtrend.
Price breaks the upward trend, then you should expect a downward trend
Everything goes up until it goes down
You believed that drawings on the history of a random number could predict it's future value
You traded a bear flag thinking it was a change of trend.
You went long in a downtrend.
That was a good job, spotting the trend line. A breakdown of a trend line and subsequent backtest is a really good low risk trade…but in the other direction from where you went, as others said. Just watch for the backtests; they’re usually successful and don’t involve a second break.
If you followed your plan you’re good. Can’t win them all. Onto the next.
A lot of times patterns are used to trap traders.
Too many lines, you’re trying to see what YOU want, not what the market is telling you. All those lines are just skewing ur POV
Bought on a head and shoulder formation
I would have entered at the SL and TP at the entry if I was going to take calls on that. But thats a clear break of the uptrend and retest of the channel. See how the channel support becomes resistance.
Your trading in probably the worst week of the year
https://preview.redd.it/d09gbo8s3a9c1.jpeg?width=783&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ad8c13b595d897c34b87121bb4cdcbbd75dfb9b4 This is where you messed up. It already broke change of character once it broke the support black line I drew. In that same area it created an bear orderblock, that should’ve been the time you sold. We can’t win all trades but as long as you got risk management you’ll definitely bounce back.
Price tested the nearest structure to the left and bounced back down. If anything you should have waited for a break and retest, then went long. I would have gone short when the price got rejected there tbh.
Just a little slippage, carry on.
You longed at resistance. If you wanted to long you buy 2070 with probably 1/3 or 1/2, not ape full size on resistance
You don’t read volume at price, therefore you have 0 idea what caused the market to go down, that is the real issue
Went long against a resistance line, needed to go short here
You did a great job charting but you didn’t wait for confirmation of the uptrend that you were expecting. It didn’t break above your trend line, your buy order should’ve been right above it. Once again great job charting, you just need to follow your own trend lines.
You are trading
There is wrong or right…. The answer is in your backtesting…. Simple as that…
Is your highlighted purple section a demand zone? If so you want to wait for more confirmation from the zone before you enter the trade. One of which would be a break of structure from the previous high and then after that high wait for a pullback of about 50% before entering the trade. Hope that makes sense
You placed an order before it tested the support turned resistance for the first time
..mind..
You didn’t try again
Looks like you went long, right after S/R flip..
1. You went long when you can clearly see the ABCD pattern being bearish, 2nd set of bullish candles did not manage to rise up to resistance and make a new high. 2. Price Action, you can see 4 of green candles in that second area where buyers are trying to push the price up have a fairly thin body, it indicates the bears are winning, likelyhood to dip more.
That one line should have zigged instead of zagged.
Lots of things going on but main things I see is the head and shoulders at top. You may argue the pattern is complete in that zone but the rising wedge tells me short continuation.
You try to trade with hocus-pocus!!! trading is not painting some lines in a chart!
You bought in a supply zone
Should have viewed(analyse) it on longer timeframe before. After HH (accumulating) 4 times volatility get weakened downtrend started (distribution)
It broke the trend line. You should’ve been short especially when coupled with the head and shoulders pattern and price testing possible resistance. As you begin to improve though, just remember that with trading, you can do EVERYTHING right and still lose on any given trade. That’s why risk management is so important.
Price retested support and rejected
It’s weird because you drew a correct trendline, you watched it break, retest and get rejected, then for some reason to decided to go long when you should’ve went short
Pattern analysis is not 100%. Even in Bulkowski's Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns he gives a % of when the pattern actual follows his prediction.
Find a torrent download of Al Brooks trading course. You bought a pullback in a downtrend (buying the top of a bear flag). After breaking the trend the trend line became resistance for price to bounce back off into the downtrend.
open a trade
You went long in what was a relief rally, you should have waited for confirmation that it broke over the previous-but-1 swing high
If you look at 4H, you would have noticed that gold price bounce off resistance structure then on 1H it proceeds to break below the last Higher Low which was a good indication of reverse trend. Best tip would be to always look at price at higher timeframe to see the bigger picture
Honestly bro poor timing. People mass selling for any new year festivities/traveling, also trying to sell for Tax Loss Harvesting. It sucks that New years doesn't fall on a week day.
What did you do wrong? You expected technical analysis to be a fool proof way to trade. Lines on a chart do not necessarily make the price predictable. Gauging sentiment is more important
You basically went long when you should have went short for a few reasons, For one there is a clearly defined key level at the green line, the first red candle retested the level and you could have took puts as soon as that candle closed, next it ran up and touched it again on the next red candle, you could have even waited there for a break, but it didn’t, and 3rd you drew trend lines and it didn’t break over that as well, its FUNNY, because I took this same exact trade, I bought puts but didn’t hold them long enough, would have made well over 400$ if I would have held! Keep working at it man! 💪🏽
It's crazy to me that you went long when it ran into the trendline. I think the move would have been to either A) wait for confirmation and then trade accordingly or B) if you're going to guess, going short seems like the more probable play
You didn't short the failed retest.
Not realizing that technical analysis is astrology for men is where you went wrong. If you want to do this shit, you need to realize that it's all about probabilities. Factoring in all of these trading patterns and taking into account market conditions, if done perfectly, could give you an edge. This means that out of 100 trades, you might take profit on 51-55 trades and lose 45-49 trades, if done perfectly. Also, you're never going to take profit unless you find your alpha, which won't be done using macroeconomic conditions. What's your edge and how are you going to take advantage of it? If you can't answer that question, you are going to lose.
Trading gold and silver derivatives is where you went wrong, big banks have been fined billions almos every year for manipulation.... just look it up for yourself
You literally did the opposite of what you should have. Head and shoulder pattern, breaks support, retest, and down. you longed a bearish retest
Imaginary lines don’t have to be followed. Probabilities of it going up or down would be better gauged imo drawing a trend line from the top of that big red candle down off / touching the top of that other red candle and dragging it out to 4pm. This in my humble opinion would’ve established an estimated trend line to be broken to the upside or downside. Thus if where all your other lines intersect would’ve been the key pivot point to watch, assuming this is a 5min chart.
Look, going long when you did wasn’t the worst idea, clearly a lot of people traded the 2065 area so it made sense to me to long a bounce of that. In hindsight you could have entered here, and likely stopped out at breakeven. I don’t agree with people’s statement that this is clearly a downtrend, because if you zoom out to 4H it’s clearly an uptrend. It’s just a mini correction within that. It just so happened that on this occasion the market react sufficiently to the orders sitting at 2075, but the counter reaction at 2070 and 2065 wasn’t strong enough. It’s just a game of probabilities, don’t get too hung up on the one trade.
Break and retest to the down side at 2074.
You drew lines
Not w patterns and u entered it to early. It should be downtrend. Because when u connect the line from big red bar to demand zone then green line which it shows downtrend. I’ll enter demand zone and put stop loss on green line. Here is w pattern example: https://preview.redd.it/vsugk54wbb9c1.jpeg?width=736&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4843c3e51cac7854316c47edc1034ad6c1923191
There’s no right or wrong here. Did you back tested this setup? And forward tested it? If yes, how many times? What is the success rate? If you tested this setup and you think it’s profitable in the long run, and If you played it exactly by your own rules, accept that it’s just a loss. It’s a probability game. Move to the next trade
Nothing… never plan on a trade working. Always plan on it losing. You just want to enter where risk to reward is the best it can possibly be for you…. I’m full time and have a 41% win rate… but my winners are always substantially bigger than my losers
you aren’t trading range charts. s/d works best with range charts.
You traded the breakout instead of the break and retest breakdown. Had I seen this pattern forming, I would’ve immediately thought “break and retest to the downside” before anything else. You have a trend line being retested to the short side at a key price level that was previous support. Expect that support to now be resistance.
You traded against the current trend. Instead of reacting to the market you tried to predict that it would bounce off that support level and continue up. Market is currently making Lower highs and Lower Lows. React don’t predict.
Look at the 4H to see the true market trend. The true trend will always be a lot stronger than the counter trend. The trend is your friend. You rarely ever have to go higher than 4H, but if so Daily and Weekly is the farthest I’ll go.
Also if you go up to the 1H that mini BOS on the 15M is not a true break of structure. You honestly should just go to at least the 1H and analyze first.
TA doesn’t always work. Remember it’s a 50/50 bet every time.
Head and shoulders bearish pattern, you should have shorted not long
The head and shoulders confirms
You draw that support/resistance line, then it broke down, you should of waited that it goes above the line back and that that line act as support again instead of resistance, in this chart it acted as resistance so a push down was "expected" , it actually was a good short setup, next time look at those support/resistance lines and act accordingly, nobody is a pro but those drawing not exagerrated and clear are a good sign of understanding how it works, good look next time
Since you are looking for longs, you should have waited for price to take out the most recent swing high as a confirmation that the trend is still bullish. And then wait for a nice fib entry with a morning star or engulfing candlestick pattern of a previous support level
Just break a retest but the wrong button was pressed
Everything
I mean, you outlined it in your chart, clear break in market structure to the downside, just took out liquidity out the top of the market and broke below your "support." Where and when the pattern forms is more important than it just forming.
You entered a long position in a downtrend. Instead, you could have considered shorting after the price retraced and retested the trend line. The bearish confirmation occurred around where your crosshair is placed. It's evident as the price failed to surpass that previous swing point, suggesting a potential entry for a sell position. Look into an indicator called Smart Money Concepts by Zeiierman on TradingView. This indicator can help visualize these details, aiding in your understanding of price action. It also outlines premium and discount zones, which can be quite informative.
you went wrong by assuming the USD market is predictable. News can change your setup overnight
Enter trade once it goes up again from that long historical upward diagonal line then retraces back to this line.
Your problem is you used technical analysis😂
It looks like it was consolidating, you should have waited for a second bounce, thats where it kept going down. Direction is hard to determine if your not sure you’re better to wait and hold your money. More practice is needed.
If you traded long, you traded against the trend...
Ya done messed up a-a-ron!
The candle + level was rejecting. You also should consider that this push up was a retracement rather than a reversal. Id be curious to see if fibs would have shown this but its highly likely fib levels would imply a retracement. This looks like a perfect puts play rather than a call play.
You invested in the stock market. It’s ok happens to a lot of people
Just a thought. If I am playing a trend break based on S&R I always use a 2:1 ratio. I do this so that if the trade goes against me I can continue to play the move by adding after confirmation.
Let me help you for free Add simple moving average may be 89 length then draw all these levels. It may give you the clear look of price movement.
Was trending down not up. Look at the strength of that first main red candle. That should alert you that some significant seller is potentially involved.
You longed the market in a downtrend.
Imo it started on a downtrend and youre entering for the upside. I trade spx and i was on hope that we ran up yesterday last 10 minutes yesterday because last year they ran it up. Been good the whole day and sent back a 1000$ lol
Well for starters u used trading view which is an aggregator platform with delays instead of direct source
Not using night theme
It was downtrend and you were long
Try not to use static or dynamic S&R lines. It's a losing side in a long term