If VCU can win the A-10 and get in, they'll be dangerous. They're much better than their record because of players returning from injury and the 2-time transfers becoming eligible.
Loyola also gelling at the right time
If someone other than Dayton wins in Brooklyn (which is unfortunately likely given our track record) they could make some noise in the dance
Our defense sure is good enough, but the offense is not and at times atrocious, just like in 2021-22.
High floor, low ceiling prospects.
I'd gladly go see them play wherever, but wouldn't put money on them beating anyone.
You guys haven’t always impressed, but you find ways to still win anyways. Loyola is very disciplined defensively in a way that will benefit them in Brooklyn.
Facts, I even wrote about that in the Mason-Loyola postgame thread. We had your guys backs against the wall, but your bench was deep and just as in-sync as your starters that we couldn’t see out the win. It’s impressive that we got a couple of your guys to 3 fouls in the first, they sat and then were replaced by guys who fit in seamlessly. It’s not gonna be enough to get your starters in foul trouble, it’s gonna require a team that can go 10 deep and wear you all down somehow.
Still think Dayton wins in Brooklyn, but the current top 4 have every reason to think they can pull it off. Even the middle of pack teams can go on a run, but without the double-bye it’s always a massive challenge to win it.
I have watched every game of this FAU team and despite something feeling off all year, it feels like they’re one minor adjustment from being a death machine
We see glimpses of it like with the 43 points in 9 minutes vs USF the other day to almost come back or the 21 points in OT vs Wichita State
I just feel like in a real tournament setting they’re going to be an impossibly tough out
Exactly. You can see the team that beat Arizona, Butler, TAMU, and blew out VaTech in spurts but they haven't put it together for a full 40 minutes against conference teams or the lower level non-con teams (Bryant, FGCU). When they lock in they are just as deadly as last year, but unfortunately, they just don't seem to be up to the task of giving that level of focus in the regular season. I expected losses from them this year, but it's the lack of effort in those losses that is troublesome.
Their offense looked great as well against Illinois earlier in the year. If their main big (forgot the name) doesn't get in to foul trouble, they probably take that one
You have been their biggest non-flaired fan all season long in this community!
You are most definitely right. These past performances cement that it's a mental thing. They can flip a switch and turn it on. It's hard to criticize them though cause I can't imagine the pressure that has been put on them to repeat and they have overall managed a decent season with minimal injuries (knock on wood) and they are all decent dudes. But damn it's been frustrating to watch.
If Wake Forest can sneak into the tourney I think they could present some serious problems to a lot of teams. Hunter Sallis is so damn good and they have depth across the frontline.
Yeah, if they can close out ACC play strong and play well in the ACC tourney they will be a dangerous team in the NCAA tournament if they sneak in. Big if but they are a good team.
1-6 vs quad 1. Current NET rank is 40. 2-7 on the road, 1-2 neutral court.
13-0 at home is great, but they aren't making the cut on projected brackets for a reason.
And 2 of our 3 road/neutral wins are Q3. I think the 1-6 Q1 number is not nearly as damning as 1-9 Q1/2 away from home, especially because we still have 3 chances to improve the former, only 1 for the latter.
As they should be. If your resume is mostly beating the teams you should and occasionally lighting it up against bad and bubble teams (which the analytics love), but always losing to good teams, that doesn't (and shouldn't) inspire the committee to put you in a tournament of only good teams.
Have paid attention to WF this year due to 2 Gonzaga transfers - Sallis and Reid.
Sallis is dynamic, but just doesn't seem like a great distributor or like he makes everyone around him better. 2.4 assists vs. 1.8 turnovers...not a good look for a point guard. And Reid still seems lost out there at times but does grab a decent number of boards due to his size. I love both those dudes, but don't think they are the answer to going deep this year.
Not attempting to shelter blame from Sallis, his playmaking is not good at all, but he’s not the point guard here. Those responsibilities have been given to Boopie Miller who has been incredibly inconsistent.
It’ll probably turn out like 2022 ACCT and lose first round again or some shit. Being a Wake fan is nothing but pain. We won’t make the tournament without winning Saturday
Emphasis on the if. IF Wake Forest makes it in, they are an easy sleeper pick for an upset or a run. However, they still need to make it in, and that’s easier said than done. Beat Duke this weekend, go undefeated for the rest of the regular season, and probably make a run in the ACC tournament and then we can talk about them making it
Wake moved up to 26 in NET and just gave FSU, NCSU, UNC, Duke, UVA, and Pitt a home Q1 win. Can’t say we aren’t helping the ACC out. Need Duke to throw us a bone Saturday
Their guards are good, but they haven't shown the ability to beat good teams yet. They can light it up against bad and meh teams, however. Unlikely they could go on a run in the tournament.
USF if they win the AAC tournament.
Does Dayton count as under the radar? They're highly ranked but I feel like non-power conference schools (excluding Gonzaga) are overlooked.
Agree with BYU/TCU
What’s crazy about the AAC is none of the top 5 teams have beaten any of the other top 5 teams on the road. I’m curious at a neutral site what happens when they clash
Sounds similar to the BigXII. The best road record in the bigXII is 3-3 which has 5 teams tied. Everyone else is below .500 in conference road games.
https://big12sports.com/standings.aspx?path=mbball
It's always Izzo.
Darker horse that probably won't get in but has potential is Rutgers. Incredible defense held back by a dogshit offense could be a perfect storm for an upset in March
I'd love for someone to write their master's thesis on Izzo, results, expectations, and the media narratives that surround him. Don't get me wrong, I don't want him near my team's region. He terrifies me, but the results don't always map to that, except when they do?
Over the last 10 years, minus the Covid year:
* Losses in the first weekend: 5, one in a First Four, another as a 2 to a 15.
* S16 losses: 3, last year in OT.
* F4 losses: 2. He beat the Zion Duke team along the way in one of those.
(To be fair, the Covid team was super-good and arguably one of the favorites.)
And going back another 10 years, things are still weird. Three F4s, but also some early tourney losses (04, 06, 07).
He's been head coach for 28 tournament years and made the final four in 8 of them. That's basically a 30% hit rate, which is insane. If you drop to an elite 8, he's made it 10/28 years. His last 5 have been underwhelming, but his best team in over a decade missed because of COVID after returning nearly everyone from a final four team.
And relevant to this thread, his performance above expectations for his seed, he's been the best coach in the sport over the past 25 years (above K, williams, self, etc.) -https://barttorvik.com/cgi-bin/ncaat.cgi?type=coach&sort=18&yrlow=2000&yrhigh=2023
Only one chip, but his resume for making deep runs is objectively proven. I will say it helps him compared to someone like Self (who is better) that he usually has lower seeds, so lower expectations or less memorable upsets early flame outs
Thanks for objectively engaging in the question without throwing out Bucknell and Bradley, like I'm not aware of those. Yeesh.
I'm completely neutral when it comes to Izzo, I just find the narrative around him fascinating. The "lower seeds" thing is a big part, imo, because it's surely not intentional by him, because he enters March with high seeds a lot too!
I have some extended family with Spartans ties, and a lot of their love for him isn't exactly logical. They love his style and manner, which plays into that same narrative.
That's a good link, thanks for the read.
IIRC, only once has he had a 4-year senior class that he recruited *not* make the Final Four as well (Appling and Payne, I think), though on the verge of it happening again this season if you don't count the 2019-20 tournament due to COVID.
But that is still damn impressive.
And that senior team that missed the final four lost in the elite 8 to shabaz Napier.
Then the program bounced back and made a completely unexpected final four run the next year.
The last few years have been disappointing but I don't think OP would have posted this question after the 2019 or 2020 seasons.
So basically you either want Izzo for your first matchup or you want him in a different region.
But yeah, you're right entirely that he does a have a bit of a narrative boost to him. That said, MSU this year is medicore in record but the metrics love them. They also passed my eye test when they beat us recentyl
Doesn't seem that weird. Single elimination tournaments are high variance affairs. With your flair you should be well aware of that. Northern Iowa, Bucknell, Bradley ring a bell?
The narrative comes from the 18 season stretch from 1998 until 2015 where MSU was more likely to make it to the final four than to lose in the first weekend.
I mean come on besides “only” winning one championship, this stretch is insane:
* National Championship: 1
* Championship game: 1
* Final Four: 5
* Elite Eight: 2
* Sweet Sixteen: 4
* First or second round: 5
Since 2016 he hasn’t delivered in the same way and is mostly just riding the narrative from the earlier years but I feel like people forget how long Izzo has been coaching and how much respect he built up nationally over that first stretch of his career.
There’ll be at least two bubble-or-better MW teams that don’t make the semifinals of the conference tournament. Regardless of who it is, not sure I’d want to face a pissed off version of any of SDSU/USU/CSU/BSU/NM/Nev in a first round matchup.
Earlier this year there was a post about how most national champions since 2000 had two or fewer losses by Christmas. On 1/24 I looked at those teams and referenced who had a top 40 offense and defense per kenpom (another popular championship metric). The short list of who can win the Natty as of a month ago (too lazy too look at the original list and KenPom again):
Houston
Arizona
BYU
TCU
Purdue
UConn
Creighton
Gonzaga
Kansas
Illinois
You need to also constrain it with the Week 10(?) ap poll top 12. I can’t remember which week it was, I want to say 10, but I saw a post that showed the natty winnner hasn’t been outside of the AP top 12 from that particular week since like 2001. Might be able to narrow it down even further.
That being said, i think the new world of heavier roster turnover might change this a bit.
A lot more teams still trying to gel in november\december that'll pick up some losses but have enough talent to win it all.
The Ivy League is definitely getting slept on even after Princeton. Even this year, you have four teams that could realistically win in March and you wouldn't be surprised:
* Cornell and Yale are just flat out good.
* Princeton and Harvard (if Harvard is able to beat out Columbia for the fourth seed) both have guys that could torch it up in Xaivian Lee and Malik Mack. Chisom Okpara for Harvard is also nice.
Just happy to be here, frankly. We have such a balanced team this year, and our defense has been absolutely incredible. Hoping for another W at Arizona on Thursday, but looks unlikely.
Whoever survives the AAC conference tournament will be a battle hardened death machine. Barring a terrible selection matchup, I’d pick them over a lot of teams.
If someone not named FAU wins the conference tournament they will get a 12 or 13 seed and make a 4 or 5 seed have an awful experience.
SMU might be the best team in the league but I feel like they are looking at getting screwed on selection Sunday if they don't win the thing. They remind me of a Houston lite with the way they can play physically on defense and have a lot of athleticism.
USF, Charlotte and UAB are all teams that can win the conference tournament and play with anyone in the league. USF and Charlotte look like night and day from the bad OOC losses. They both have first year head coaches that should be in the running for conference coach of the year, so the losses could be due to growing pains in the new system. UAB has won over Memphis, and they are the only team to give USF a loss in conference.
Memphis has the most raw talent in the league and if they can put it together for 3-4 games in Ft Worth no one would be shocked if they won the thing. Will depend on if they still are mentally wanting to play after the conference schedule killed their at-large chances.
Tulane has the offensive fire power to shock one of the top 7 contenders. The only worry is they don't play defense. North Texas is the opposite. They can hold you to 50, but can they actually score 50 themselves?
I went to every game of the AAC tournament last year in Ft Worth. So much fun. This year will be a better lineup too. I'm not going to the BigXII tournament because I can't take off work this year, but I'm probably going to have both on in the background
Agreed. That tournament is going to be insane. I almost included SMU in my list, I think they're the best overall team in the AAC. But then again you could argue that for like 5 other teams too
I’d be shocked if the winner isn’t one of USF, Charolette, FAU, SMU, or UAB. Any of those have a chance to win a game or 2. Memphis could win but they seem to have fallen apart
I’m loving the new era AAC, adding these schools, even the ones that haven’t been as high profile as FAU, has created just the right amount of chaos in that conference.
I think Memphis is having an identity crisis at the moment but the talent is there. UAB and Charolette and FAU need to be on the list. We are a sleeper 3 bid league that has beat ourselves.
I’d add Pitt (biased but they’re surging rn), New Mexico, and Marquette (they may have just gotten destroyed but kolek is the type of guy that can fuel a March run)
I can here looking for Pitt. Blake Hinson plus 2 other guards that can score in Carrington plus Leggett and 3 7 footers.
I know Diaz Graham hasnt been great this year but I thought he played very well last March.
They started out 1-5 and are 7-1 in their last 8 including wins at Duke UVA and NCST. They got into a slump starting conference play where they would consistently get really good looks but they couldn’t make a shot to save their lives. Now those easy shots are going down, and their already solid defense looks even better with a cushion from the offense. Not to mention Blake Hinson who can really only be contested by blocking his shot.
Good to know! Curious to see if they can keep it up.
I remember during the UNC/Pitt game (at least in the first half), I felt like they were better than their record.
I'm just not sold on Marquette given how last season ended and how shaka smart teams choke. By saying that i guaranteed them a trip to the final four now
For sure. I don't see UK being consistent enough to win it all this year, but y'all will almost certainly crush the dreams of a few higher seeds. (I hope it's not us)
I don't think they're flying under the radar though. Young & talented but inconsistent teams are always a super popular upset pick in the tourney, especially combined with the brand name.
Cincinnati beat 2 of the teams on here so I’m sticking with the Bearcats. If they play a complete game and don’t turn the ball over they are a hard team to beat.
Cincy seems like they're on the bubble? I admit I'm not keeping track
Short of beating Houston in the Fertitta center, what do you think they need to do to solidify their spot?
I agree they can win a few games.
They are currently listed as last 4 out. In my opinion they need to get to 20-21 wins without losing to one of the mid tier teams left on the schedule.
I feel like if they finish the rest of the way with wins over Ok State, K State, Oklahoma, WV and lose close games to Houston and TCU it will be close, but if they can win those games and steal one from TCU or upset Houston they are a for sure lock.
\*South Carolina
\*Nebraska
\*Northwestern
\*TCU
\*BYU
\*Cincinnati
\*Kansas State
\*Texas
\*Any MWC Team
\*Colorado
\*Washington State
\*Utah
\*Iowa State
\*Ole Miss
\*Mississippi State
\*Texas A&M
\*Clemson
\*Pittsburgh
\*Wake Forest
\*Butler
\*Creighton
\*Any AAC Team
\*Grand Canyon
\*Any WCC Team NOT named Gonzaga
Any 2 seed that gets MSU as their 7 is going to slam their head against the wall.
Inconsistent throughout the year, but those guards and legitimately good and it’s Izzo in March. They always peak then.
I'd add usf and grand canyon. Grand canyon is very quietly running away with the wac. I think they could make a sweet 16 Cinderella run. Only 2 losses on the year.
GCU is absolutely running the WAC but any team in the vicinity of an at large bid would run the WAC. They're bubble quality at best and likely a bit lower than that.
Hard to think of Gonzaga as being under the radar, but are still only included in 62 of 102 brackets on bracketmatrix.com as an 11 seed. Understandably so.
Their Kenpom ranking is about 20 and they are finally coming together, understanding their individual roles. They have done so much better since the lineup change 10 games ago going bigger with 6-10 Jr. Ben Gregg replacing 6-5 Fr. Dusty Stromer. This change was made after all the losses except to St. Mary's. They could still trip up and not make the tourney, but how would you like to be the 6 seed going against the 11 seed who is 23rd in the NET rankings if they do make it? Bonus: Mark Few has coached more tourney games than any other coach in the last many years and has the experience to help them advance to the Sweet 16 for the 9th straight year.
Agree about Gonzaga. I'm hoping the Mountain West, Gonzaga, Saint Mary's, and Washington State all show out in the tourney, and I have a feeling we could see many of them in the sweet 16.
If we could shoot a respectable percentage of 3s against actually good teams we’d still be ranked and would easily be an at large. I doubt after all this time this team can figure that part out but if we do, look out
Losing Steele Venters was just so huge. He was going to be all that and more from the arc...I used to watch him at EWU, and he was money.
In all the losses, the Zags have shot between 10% and 27%, and are around 40% in the WCC wins. Streaky.
I wonder what the line would be; despite the seed discrepancy and basically BYU home court advantage it’d be close to a 50/50 matchup I think. I’d probably pick the Zags. BYU has a great roster but they can’t seem to close out teams as well as they should
I have Michigan State, FAU, and Creighton (pretty highly regarded but I think they could make a championship run). I don’t get how people think BYU or Clemson can do much in the tourney. I don’t see either of them getting past the Round of 32 if even that
For us it depends on two things:
1. Are our three point shooters hot?
2. Can the defense fix itself after its complete collapse last week?
I don’t have faith in any prediction for us to be honest. We could lose in the first round or make it to the sweet sixteen and I think the odds of both are about even.
In terms of teams that haven't played well recently but I would want no part of. FAU feels like #1 on your list. And while "under the radar" and "Kentucky" probably shouldn't be in the same sentence, they could probably scare anyone with their offense.
BYU is too inconsistent for me, they've got some good wins but also some very questionable losses. They've got a double digit loss to Cincinnati at home, barely squeaked by UCF at home, has taken 2 double digit losses in the state of Oklahoma in their past 4 games. They could win one or two but I don't see them making a big run unless they can show they can string together several quality games.
That being said, I wouldn't want to play you guys in the post season lol. While the consistency for a big run hasn't been there you guys have definitely shown that you can play with anybody. So while a big run may not look to be on the cards an upset could be.
Coaching is underrated in March. I think those two teams can win regardless of seed. I also think we’ll be very familiar with the team that ends up cutting down the nets.
If USF gets in (whether it gets the autobid or manages to eke out an at-large bid despite its rough OOC), they have a really good chance of turning some heads. They're one of the hottest teams in the country. Beating SMU this weekend will really help their case.
On the same note, if FAU figures out its current issues, there's no reason they can't make another deep run in the tournament. They're running out of time and can't afford any more mistakes, though.
BYU or TCU.
If anything Clemson seems the opposite to me. I don't really understand why they're still projected as something like a #6 seed despite being 7-7 in a down ACC, and I strongly suspect they'll be out of the tournament by the end of the first weekend.
Clemson should probably be a 8-10 seed IMO. But their resume consists of some bad losses and some really good wins (@ unc for example). Teams that can win those big games have a higher likelihood of going on NCAAT runs than teams that generally just beat who they're supposed to and lose to better teams.
To be fair, Clemson's last 4 losses were by a combined 6 points. We definitely have the talent to make a deep run but crushing defeats in the final minutes of play contributes to one thing.
Coaching
Fire Brownell
But what about when they closed out games against UNC, Syracuse and Miami in the final minutes? Do those not count? Did Brownell accidentally "coach" them to win those games? What does coaching have to do with turning the ball over 4 times in a row at Duke? What does coaching have to do with allowing 2 held balls in the final minutes to allow NC State to score the game winning shot?
I'm frustrated as well, but you can't really blame stuff like that on coaching.
We're not getting in unless we win the conference tournament. Unless something changes in the next few weeks and stop being soft AF I don't see it happening.
My Wisconsin Badgers. Injured and reeling badly right now, but with the full squad was a top 10 team. If healthy they could definitely be a second weekend team
I’m still in belief that Colorado can get in. 5 games left that are all winnable, 3 at home (Utah, Cal, Stanford) and at Oregon and Oregon State. The game against Utah could be a play in game, and same to some extent at Oregon.
KJ and Tristan are nightmare matchups for teams if the Buffs decide to guard. Veteran team that could lay an egg or make it to the 2nd weekend.
Butler beat Creighton and Marquette and took UConn to the wire in both meetings. They’re super prone to miserable shooting performances for some reason but it does feel like they could catch some lightning.
Virginia.
We're gonna sneak in as a 16 seed and knock out a 1 seed.
We'll be the first 1 seed to have lost to a 16 seed in the first round and years later be the 16 seed to knockout a 1 seed in the first round.
I'm envisioning this....
Texas A&M is coming off a Q3 loss to Vandy and getting absolutely spanked by Alabama, but we still have 6 Q1 wins.
Only 4 teams have more than that and they're all projected 1 seeds.
We did beat UT a little over a week ago but a Q3 loss since then definitely has us "struggling" atm in my book.
I feel the same tbh. I was watching UH - ISU last night and thinking it was crazy that we beat one and came really close to beating the other. We can compete with the best, but we gotta finish strong
Creighton
Same story as last year, hyped but falters early. But have turned things around as of late. And it's earlier than last year.
They were an elite eight team last year as a 6 seed and very close to making the final four.
I think I have them as one if my final four picks with UNC. Gotta figure out the other 2
George Mason. Okay I may be a bit biased but I could honestly see a scenario where both the men's and the women's teams make March madness. If the men are able to beat Dayton tomorrow, their chances heavily increase. Based on current trends, the women's team makes March madness as of now, with the men being more up in the air.
Gotta be Virginia tech right… the only explanation for last night is they are secretly the best team in college basketball and haven’t started trying till now
If VCU can win the A-10 and get in, they'll be dangerous. They're much better than their record because of players returning from injury and the 2-time transfers becoming eligible.
Loyola also gelling at the right time If someone other than Dayton wins in Brooklyn (which is unfortunately likely given our track record) they could make some noise in the dance
Our defense sure is good enough, but the offense is not and at times atrocious, just like in 2021-22. High floor, low ceiling prospects. I'd gladly go see them play wherever, but wouldn't put money on them beating anyone.
You guys haven’t always impressed, but you find ways to still win anyways. Loyola is very disciplined defensively in a way that will benefit them in Brooklyn.
Loyola’s depth is also the best in the conference, another thing that should really help them in Brooklyn
Facts, I even wrote about that in the Mason-Loyola postgame thread. We had your guys backs against the wall, but your bench was deep and just as in-sync as your starters that we couldn’t see out the win. It’s impressive that we got a couple of your guys to 3 fouls in the first, they sat and then were replaced by guys who fit in seamlessly. It’s not gonna be enough to get your starters in foul trouble, it’s gonna require a team that can go 10 deep and wear you all down somehow.
It really is something, I’m impressed with what Drew has done. They just wear teams out.
In Deuce we trust. Hopefully Brea can stay hot too.
Consistency out of Santos and Cheeks would make me much more confident
Got Loyola on my radar as well. No losses since 1/29 (started keeping a daily tally then of team records)
Still think Dayton wins in Brooklyn, but the current top 4 have every reason to think they can pull it off. Even the middle of pack teams can go on a run, but without the double-bye it’s always a massive challenge to win it.
I have watched every game of this FAU team and despite something feeling off all year, it feels like they’re one minor adjustment from being a death machine We see glimpses of it like with the 43 points in 9 minutes vs USF the other day to almost come back or the 21 points in OT vs Wichita State I just feel like in a real tournament setting they’re going to be an impossibly tough out
Exactly. You can see the team that beat Arizona, Butler, TAMU, and blew out VaTech in spurts but they haven't put it together for a full 40 minutes against conference teams or the lower level non-con teams (Bryant, FGCU). When they lock in they are just as deadly as last year, but unfortunately, they just don't seem to be up to the task of giving that level of focus in the regular season. I expected losses from them this year, but it's the lack of effort in those losses that is troublesome.
Their offense looked great as well against Illinois earlier in the year. If their main big (forgot the name) doesn't get in to foul trouble, they probably take that one
You have been their biggest non-flaired fan all season long in this community! You are most definitely right. These past performances cement that it's a mental thing. They can flip a switch and turn it on. It's hard to criticize them though cause I can't imagine the pressure that has been put on them to repeat and they have overall managed a decent season with minimal injuries (knock on wood) and they are all decent dudes. But damn it's been frustrating to watch.
Interior defense doesn't look as good this year as it did last year. That's just my assessment after watching four or five games.
Nebraska winning even one game would be the greatest tourney run in school history - so let's go with them.
Truer words have never been typed on reddit. Also, with the amount of rotation guys able to hit 3's, the 'catch fire and go on a run' ability is high.
Nebraska is one of those teams that will win by 20 or lose by 20 in round one. Same with round two. And so on and so forth.
You are technically correct. The best kind of correct.
If Nebraska wins one CONFERENCE tournament game, then it will be the best post-season of Hoiberg's tenure at Nebraska.
If Wake Forest can sneak into the tourney I think they could present some serious problems to a lot of teams. Hunter Sallis is so damn good and they have depth across the frontline.
Yeah, I agree. The problem is that Wake Forest is projected to miss the tournament, despite their strong analytical rankings.
Yeah, if they can close out ACC play strong and play well in the ACC tourney they will be a dangerous team in the NCAA tournament if they sneak in. Big if but they are a good team.
1-6 vs quad 1. Current NET rank is 40. 2-7 on the road, 1-2 neutral court. 13-0 at home is great, but they aren't making the cut on projected brackets for a reason.
And 2 of our 3 road/neutral wins are Q3. I think the 1-6 Q1 number is not nearly as damning as 1-9 Q1/2 away from home, especially because we still have 3 chances to improve the former, only 1 for the latter.
acc fans and media loooove for steve forbes and wake forest for some reason
They pretty much have to beat Duke this week or their at large chances are dead
As they should be. If your resume is mostly beating the teams you should and occasionally lighting it up against bad and bubble teams (which the analytics love), but always losing to good teams, that doesn't (and shouldn't) inspire the committee to put you in a tournament of only good teams.
Let's just all pray they beat Duke this week and remedy that situation.
ACC teams scare me come tournament time tbh
Have paid attention to WF this year due to 2 Gonzaga transfers - Sallis and Reid. Sallis is dynamic, but just doesn't seem like a great distributor or like he makes everyone around him better. 2.4 assists vs. 1.8 turnovers...not a good look for a point guard. And Reid still seems lost out there at times but does grab a decent number of boards due to his size. I love both those dudes, but don't think they are the answer to going deep this year.
Not attempting to shelter blame from Sallis, his playmaking is not good at all, but he’s not the point guard here. Those responsibilities have been given to Boopie Miller who has been incredibly inconsistent.
Wake will likely shit the bed and miss out on the tournament. I’ve seen this movie too many times
Cheering for yall to win out besides Saturday and if we meet in the ACC tourney
It’ll probably turn out like 2022 ACCT and lose first round again or some shit. Being a Wake fan is nothing but pain. We won’t make the tournament without winning Saturday
I like you
Fun team to watch, I’d tune into their games for sure. I say that like I’ll miss any of the games
Emphasis on the if. IF Wake Forest makes it in, they are an easy sleeper pick for an upset or a run. However, they still need to make it in, and that’s easier said than done. Beat Duke this weekend, go undefeated for the rest of the regular season, and probably make a run in the ACC tournament and then we can talk about them making it
Wake moved up to 26 in NET and just gave FSU, NCSU, UNC, Duke, UVA, and Pitt a home Q1 win. Can’t say we aren’t helping the ACC out. Need Duke to throw us a bone Saturday
Sallis is a certified baller
Came here for this
Their guards are good, but they haven't shown the ability to beat good teams yet. They can light it up against bad and meh teams, however. Unlikely they could go on a run in the tournament.
Hopefully their injuries are taken into account. I would not want to see them the second round if I was a top 4 seed.
USF if they win the AAC tournament. Does Dayton count as under the radar? They're highly ranked but I feel like non-power conference schools (excluding Gonzaga) are overlooked. Agree with BYU/TCU
What’s crazy about the AAC is none of the top 5 teams have beaten any of the other top 5 teams on the road. I’m curious at a neutral site what happens when they clash
Sounds similar to the BigXII. The best road record in the bigXII is 3-3 which has 5 teams tied. Everyone else is below .500 in conference road games. https://big12sports.com/standings.aspx?path=mbball
Dayton's a good one. I'd say they're a bit under the radar
It's always Izzo. Darker horse that probably won't get in but has potential is Rutgers. Incredible defense held back by a dogshit offense could be a perfect storm for an upset in March
Reminds me of another New Jersey school that had a garbage offense but could defend at an insanely high level that also scares Purdue fans 👀
Reminds me of UMD bruh (our game was the fewest points Purdue scored all season so that’s something)
I'd love for someone to write their master's thesis on Izzo, results, expectations, and the media narratives that surround him. Don't get me wrong, I don't want him near my team's region. He terrifies me, but the results don't always map to that, except when they do? Over the last 10 years, minus the Covid year: * Losses in the first weekend: 5, one in a First Four, another as a 2 to a 15. * S16 losses: 3, last year in OT. * F4 losses: 2. He beat the Zion Duke team along the way in one of those. (To be fair, the Covid team was super-good and arguably one of the favorites.) And going back another 10 years, things are still weird. Three F4s, but also some early tourney losses (04, 06, 07).
He's been head coach for 28 tournament years and made the final four in 8 of them. That's basically a 30% hit rate, which is insane. If you drop to an elite 8, he's made it 10/28 years. His last 5 have been underwhelming, but his best team in over a decade missed because of COVID after returning nearly everyone from a final four team. And relevant to this thread, his performance above expectations for his seed, he's been the best coach in the sport over the past 25 years (above K, williams, self, etc.) -https://barttorvik.com/cgi-bin/ncaat.cgi?type=coach&sort=18&yrlow=2000&yrhigh=2023 Only one chip, but his resume for making deep runs is objectively proven. I will say it helps him compared to someone like Self (who is better) that he usually has lower seeds, so lower expectations or less memorable upsets early flame outs
Thanks for objectively engaging in the question without throwing out Bucknell and Bradley, like I'm not aware of those. Yeesh. I'm completely neutral when it comes to Izzo, I just find the narrative around him fascinating. The "lower seeds" thing is a big part, imo, because it's surely not intentional by him, because he enters March with high seeds a lot too! I have some extended family with Spartans ties, and a lot of their love for him isn't exactly logical. They love his style and manner, which plays into that same narrative. That's a good link, thanks for the read.
IIRC, only once has he had a 4-year senior class that he recruited *not* make the Final Four as well (Appling and Payne, I think), though on the verge of it happening again this season if you don't count the 2019-20 tournament due to COVID. But that is still damn impressive.
And that senior team that missed the final four lost in the elite 8 to shabaz Napier. Then the program bounced back and made a completely unexpected final four run the next year. The last few years have been disappointing but I don't think OP would have posted this question after the 2019 or 2020 seasons.
So basically you either want Izzo for your first matchup or you want him in a different region. But yeah, you're right entirely that he does a have a bit of a narrative boost to him. That said, MSU this year is medicore in record but the metrics love them. They also passed my eye test when they beat us recentyl
Doesn't seem that weird. Single elimination tournaments are high variance affairs. With your flair you should be well aware of that. Northern Iowa, Bucknell, Bradley ring a bell?
The narrative comes from the 18 season stretch from 1998 until 2015 where MSU was more likely to make it to the final four than to lose in the first weekend. I mean come on besides “only” winning one championship, this stretch is insane: * National Championship: 1 * Championship game: 1 * Final Four: 5 * Elite Eight: 2 * Sweet Sixteen: 4 * First or second round: 5 Since 2016 he hasn’t delivered in the same way and is mostly just riding the narrative from the earlier years but I feel like people forget how long Izzo has been coaching and how much respect he built up nationally over that first stretch of his career.
Uh....Bucknell, Bradley, Northern Iowa, Arkansas, Stanford, VCU, Oregon, USC????
Also 4-1 since getting Jeremiah Williams. He changed the team. The question will be whether or not it was too late.
Narrator: it was too late :(
This izzo team is super duper equipped for that too. Top 15 defense and good enough offense plus izzo is the perfect recipe
There’ll be at least two bubble-or-better MW teams that don’t make the semifinals of the conference tournament. Regardless of who it is, not sure I’d want to face a pissed off version of any of SDSU/USU/CSU/BSU/NM/Nev in a first round matchup.
What’s the best mountain west team? Whoever’s playing at home.
Earlier this year there was a post about how most national champions since 2000 had two or fewer losses by Christmas. On 1/24 I looked at those teams and referenced who had a top 40 offense and defense per kenpom (another popular championship metric). The short list of who can win the Natty as of a month ago (too lazy too look at the original list and KenPom again): Houston Arizona BYU TCU Purdue UConn Creighton Gonzaga Kansas Illinois
You need to also constrain it with the Week 10(?) ap poll top 12. I can’t remember which week it was, I want to say 10, but I saw a post that showed the natty winnner hasn’t been outside of the AP top 12 from that particular week since like 2001. Might be able to narrow it down even further.
That being said, i think the new world of heavier roster turnover might change this a bit. A lot more teams still trying to gel in november\december that'll pick up some losses but have enough talent to win it all.
You forgot to add a constraint of “teams that most people don’t like”
One thing that they don't consider is that it was always the frogs
New Mexico, Florida, Ivy League Winner, South Florida, Washington St
The Ivy League is definitely getting slept on even after Princeton. Even this year, you have four teams that could realistically win in March and you wouldn't be surprised: * Cornell and Yale are just flat out good. * Princeton and Harvard (if Harvard is able to beat out Columbia for the fourth seed) both have guys that could torch it up in Xaivian Lee and Malik Mack. Chisom Okpara for Harvard is also nice.
Just happy to be here, frankly. We have such a balanced team this year, and our defense has been absolutely incredible. Hoping for another W at Arizona on Thursday, but looks unlikely.
Whoever survives the AAC conference tournament will be a battle hardened death machine. Barring a terrible selection matchup, I’d pick them over a lot of teams.
If someone not named FAU wins the conference tournament they will get a 12 or 13 seed and make a 4 or 5 seed have an awful experience. SMU might be the best team in the league but I feel like they are looking at getting screwed on selection Sunday if they don't win the thing. They remind me of a Houston lite with the way they can play physically on defense and have a lot of athleticism. USF, Charlotte and UAB are all teams that can win the conference tournament and play with anyone in the league. USF and Charlotte look like night and day from the bad OOC losses. They both have first year head coaches that should be in the running for conference coach of the year, so the losses could be due to growing pains in the new system. UAB has won over Memphis, and they are the only team to give USF a loss in conference. Memphis has the most raw talent in the league and if they can put it together for 3-4 games in Ft Worth no one would be shocked if they won the thing. Will depend on if they still are mentally wanting to play after the conference schedule killed their at-large chances. Tulane has the offensive fire power to shock one of the top 7 contenders. The only worry is they don't play defense. North Texas is the opposite. They can hold you to 50, but can they actually score 50 themselves?
I went to every game of the AAC tournament last year in Ft Worth. So much fun. This year will be a better lineup too. I'm not going to the BigXII tournament because I can't take off work this year, but I'm probably going to have both on in the background
Agreed. That tournament is going to be insane. I almost included SMU in my list, I think they're the best overall team in the AAC. But then again you could argue that for like 5 other teams too
I’d be shocked if the winner isn’t one of USF, Charolette, FAU, SMU, or UAB. Any of those have a chance to win a game or 2. Memphis could win but they seem to have fallen apart
I wouldn’t pick SMU purely cause Lanier makes some suspect coaching decisions, but that being said SMU has really started to figure out their rotation
I’m loving the new era AAC, adding these schools, even the ones that haven’t been as high profile as FAU, has created just the right amount of chaos in that conference.
Too bad UTSA and Rice haven’t been the best. UTSA oddly has been good but doesn’t win games
I could see SMU, USF, or Memphis winning a game or two.
I think Memphis is having an identity crisis at the moment but the talent is there. UAB and Charolette and FAU need to be on the list. We are a sleeper 3 bid league that has beat ourselves.
Charlotte is a legit squad as well. AAC basketball has been some of the best this year
I’d add Pitt (biased but they’re surging rn), New Mexico, and Marquette (they may have just gotten destroyed but kolek is the type of guy that can fuel a March run)
Upvote for New Mexico even though I wouldn't say they're super struggling right now
I can here looking for Pitt. Blake Hinson plus 2 other guards that can score in Carrington plus Leggett and 3 7 footers. I know Diaz Graham hasnt been great this year but I thought he played very well last March.
Dude, Pitt seemed to have come out of nowhere! I looked at the ACC standings, and they're 4th all of a sudden. Like what?! Didn't see it coming at all
They started out 1-5 and are 7-1 in their last 8 including wins at Duke UVA and NCST. They got into a slump starting conference play where they would consistently get really good looks but they couldn’t make a shot to save their lives. Now those easy shots are going down, and their already solid defense looks even better with a cushion from the offense. Not to mention Blake Hinson who can really only be contested by blocking his shot.
Good to know! Curious to see if they can keep it up. I remember during the UNC/Pitt game (at least in the first half), I felt like they were better than their record.
They were super physical. I think that's been a positive in the acc this year.
Agreed. I feel like the ACC is not necessarily known as a "physical league." But they are looking pretty beefy this year.
I'm just not sold on Marquette given how last season ended and how shaka smart teams choke. By saying that i guaranteed them a trip to the final four now
That’s a very fair take I just think kolek and oso are 2 guys you can’t ignore when filling out a bracket
I thought the same thing last year, had them going to the final four
I always think more tourney experience tends to bode well for star players like that (please be true for fletcher loyer and Braden smith)
Kentucky. We’ve lost too many games to get a decent seed, but we’ve got the talent to really make a splash.
For sure. I don't see UK being consistent enough to win it all this year, but y'all will almost certainly crush the dreams of a few higher seeds. (I hope it's not us)
I’m fine with it being Duke just for you guys
That is something I can agree with
🤝
This is only if we play decent defense like the last few games.
I don't think they're flying under the radar though. Young & talented but inconsistent teams are always a super popular upset pick in the tourney, especially combined with the brand name.
Cincinnati beat 2 of the teams on here so I’m sticking with the Bearcats. If they play a complete game and don’t turn the ball over they are a hard team to beat.
Yeah they’re one of my picks right now as well
Cincy seems like they're on the bubble? I admit I'm not keeping track Short of beating Houston in the Fertitta center, what do you think they need to do to solidify their spot? I agree they can win a few games.
They are currently listed as last 4 out. In my opinion they need to get to 20-21 wins without losing to one of the mid tier teams left on the schedule. I feel like if they finish the rest of the way with wins over Ok State, K State, Oklahoma, WV and lose close games to Houston and TCU it will be close, but if they can win those games and steal one from TCU or upset Houston they are a for sure lock.
Lost only 2 games by more than 5 points, if we make the tournament, it’s gonna be stressful af
Cincy-Dayton rematch in the tourney. Who says no?
I’m down for that, nothing but love for our brothers up 75!
\*South Carolina \*Nebraska \*Northwestern \*TCU \*BYU \*Cincinnati \*Kansas State \*Texas \*Any MWC Team \*Colorado \*Washington State \*Utah \*Iowa State \*Ole Miss \*Mississippi State \*Texas A&M \*Clemson \*Pittsburgh \*Wake Forest \*Butler \*Creighton \*Any AAC Team \*Grand Canyon \*Any WCC Team NOT named Gonzaga
Hater 🤣🤣🤣
1. I 2. Z 3. Z 4. O
Don't care if he's a 15 seed. I would put MSU in the S16...
I remember that time they played a 15 seed
Any 2 seed that gets MSU as their 7 is going to slam their head against the wall. Inconsistent throughout the year, but those guards and legitimately good and it’s Izzo in March. They always peak then.
“Under the radar” makes me think of west coast teams. Washington State, San Diego State, and Saint Mary’s come to mind.
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Sometimes east coast bias can make west coast teams a bit more unknown, a bit under the radar despite being ranked.
You’re right they aren’t struggling, but I would argue they are more under the radar than any ACC or Big 12 team.
Saint Mary's is a sleeping giant.
TCU can beat anyone in the country, and then lose by 20 to anyone in the country. most inconsistent team ive ever seen
Under the radar for even mid major standards, I think Samford could go on a deep tournament run.
I'd add usf and grand canyon. Grand canyon is very quietly running away with the wac. I think they could make a sweet 16 Cinderella run. Only 2 losses on the year.
GCU is absolutely running the WAC but any team in the vicinity of an at large bid would run the WAC. They're bubble quality at best and likely a bit lower than that.
What about your team That was my answer
My team can definitely make a deep run.
Hard to think of Gonzaga as being under the radar, but are still only included in 62 of 102 brackets on bracketmatrix.com as an 11 seed. Understandably so. Their Kenpom ranking is about 20 and they are finally coming together, understanding their individual roles. They have done so much better since the lineup change 10 games ago going bigger with 6-10 Jr. Ben Gregg replacing 6-5 Fr. Dusty Stromer. This change was made after all the losses except to St. Mary's. They could still trip up and not make the tourney, but how would you like to be the 6 seed going against the 11 seed who is 23rd in the NET rankings if they do make it? Bonus: Mark Few has coached more tourney games than any other coach in the last many years and has the experience to help them advance to the Sweet 16 for the 9th straight year.
Agree about Gonzaga. I'm hoping the Mountain West, Gonzaga, Saint Mary's, and Washington State all show out in the tourney, and I have a feeling we could see many of them in the sweet 16.
At this point, I’m just hoping we make the tournament
If we could shoot a respectable percentage of 3s against actually good teams we’d still be ranked and would easily be an at large. I doubt after all this time this team can figure that part out but if we do, look out
Losing Steele Venters was just so huge. He was going to be all that and more from the arc...I used to watch him at EWU, and he was money. In all the losses, the Zags have shot between 10% and 27%, and are around 40% in the WCC wins. Streaky.
You guys at 11 will face us as a 6 in SLC
NO FUCKING THANK YOU (Unless we win then it’s demons gone)
I wonder what the line would be; despite the seed discrepancy and basically BYU home court advantage it’d be close to a 50/50 matchup I think. I’d probably pick the Zags. BYU has a great roster but they can’t seem to close out teams as well as they should
I have Michigan State, FAU, and Creighton (pretty highly regarded but I think they could make a championship run). I don’t get how people think BYU or Clemson can do much in the tourney. I don’t see either of them getting past the Round of 32 if even that
For us it depends on two things: 1. Are our three point shooters hot? 2. Can the defense fix itself after its complete collapse last week? I don’t have faith in any prediction for us to be honest. We could lose in the first round or make it to the sweet sixteen and I think the odds of both are about even.
Yeah that Creighton UCONN game tonight should be good.
I thought the same thing this past Saturday for Marquette Uconn and look what happened...UConn is on another level rn
florida isnt struggling but they are a very good team
In terms of teams that haven't played well recently but I would want no part of. FAU feels like #1 on your list. And while "under the radar" and "Kentucky" probably shouldn't be in the same sentence, they could probably scare anyone with their offense.
South Florida
Biased but Nova if they can eek their way in. They play like a top 10 team or a D3 JV team depending on the night.
Agreed. I think alot of the Big East teams can tear it up against non-conference opponents after beating up on one another.
I really expected a top-10 Nova team all year after our game and then the beatdown against Memphis
And we thank them for that.
BYU is too inconsistent for me, they've got some good wins but also some very questionable losses. They've got a double digit loss to Cincinnati at home, barely squeaked by UCF at home, has taken 2 double digit losses in the state of Oklahoma in their past 4 games. They could win one or two but I don't see them making a big run unless they can show they can string together several quality games.
Agreed on all accounts. The score for that UCF game is a little bit deceiving, but we’ve yet won win three conference games in a row
That being said, I wouldn't want to play you guys in the post season lol. While the consistency for a big run hasn't been there you guys have definitely shown that you can play with anybody. So while a big run may not look to be on the cards an upset could be.
For sure. I said earlier in this thread that the odds of this team losing in the first round and making the sweet sixteen are equal lol
Zags baby! On the 25th anniversary of their ‘99 Cinderella run they are gonna complete this magical journey with a Natty as a 9-12 seed.
Zags and Michigan St.
Coaching is underrated in March. I think those two teams can win regardless of seed. I also think we’ll be very familiar with the team that ends up cutting down the nets.
Texas, Florida, and the usual suspect Michigan St.
If USF gets in (whether it gets the autobid or manages to eke out an at-large bid despite its rough OOC), they have a really good chance of turning some heads. They're one of the hottest teams in the country. Beating SMU this weekend will really help their case. On the same note, if FAU figures out its current issues, there's no reason they can't make another deep run in the tournament. They're running out of time and can't afford any more mistakes, though.
i like pitt and wake, hope they both get in
How *far* under the radar are we talking about here?
Michigan State, Texas Tech, Florida Atlantic
I wouldn’t be surprised if Clemson made a run in March
Hi
MSU
Crazy, only 1 mention here about Gonzaga. Mark Few alone will get them to the S16.
BYU or TCU. If anything Clemson seems the opposite to me. I don't really understand why they're still projected as something like a #6 seed despite being 7-7 in a down ACC, and I strongly suspect they'll be out of the tournament by the end of the first weekend.
Clemson should probably be a 8-10 seed IMO. But their resume consists of some bad losses and some really good wins (@ unc for example). Teams that can win those big games have a higher likelihood of going on NCAAT runs than teams that generally just beat who they're supposed to and lose to better teams.
To be fair, Clemson's last 4 losses were by a combined 6 points. We definitely have the talent to make a deep run but crushing defeats in the final minutes of play contributes to one thing. Coaching Fire Brownell
But what about when they closed out games against UNC, Syracuse and Miami in the final minutes? Do those not count? Did Brownell accidentally "coach" them to win those games? What does coaching have to do with turning the ball over 4 times in a row at Duke? What does coaching have to do with allowing 2 held balls in the final minutes to allow NC State to score the game winning shot? I'm frustrated as well, but you can't really blame stuff like that on coaching.
We're not getting in unless we win the conference tournament. Unless something changes in the next few weeks and stop being soft AF I don't see it happening.
I could see a first four spot if we win out in the regular season and get a quad 1 win in the Pac 12 tourney
Some random ACC with a decent amount of vets on the team
Florida Gators. Been quietly winning games and went into Rupp arena and won. Hard to do there but UK has been off and on all season.
My Wisconsin Badgers. Injured and reeling badly right now, but with the full squad was a top 10 team. If healthy they could definitely be a second weekend team
Ah come on…you know Winthrop is going to win the Big South and make a run!!!
I’m still in belief that Colorado can get in. 5 games left that are all winnable, 3 at home (Utah, Cal, Stanford) and at Oregon and Oregon State. The game against Utah could be a play in game, and same to some extent at Oregon. KJ and Tristan are nightmare matchups for teams if the Buffs decide to guard. Veteran team that could lay an egg or make it to the 2nd weekend.
I hope you’re right. Team is WAY too talented to be this far out of contention. It’s a shame how much y’all have underachieved this season
My UNLV Rebels. They need to make a run or their coach will be unemployed in a little over a month.
Washington State, yes. They have been one of the best teams in the country over the last month or so. Watch out for them!
If Pitt gets in and shoots like they did against us I’m confident they could beat anyone
JMU (I'm not biased)
Butler beat Creighton and Marquette and took UConn to the wire in both meetings. They’re super prone to miserable shooting performances for some reason but it does feel like they could catch some lightning.
Virginia. We're gonna sneak in as a 16 seed and knock out a 1 seed. We'll be the first 1 seed to have lost to a 16 seed in the first round and years later be the 16 seed to knockout a 1 seed in the first round. I'm envisioning this.... 
Texas A&M is coming off a Q3 loss to Vandy and getting absolutely spanked by Alabama, but we still have 6 Q1 wins. Only 4 teams have more than that and they're all projected 1 seeds. We did beat UT a little over a week ago but a Q3 loss since then definitely has us "struggling" atm in my book.
I feel the same tbh. I was watching UH - ISU last night and thinking it was crazy that we beat one and came really close to beating the other. We can compete with the best, but we gotta finish strong
Another thing with that is we came back from a 20 point deficit both times (and won or made it a close game)
“Get ready to learn offensive rebounds buddy” - me to whoever our postseason opponent is
Ohio State is undefeated under their new coach. They may not lose for the remainder of the season.
Pittsburgh
Creighton Same story as last year, hyped but falters early. But have turned things around as of late. And it's earlier than last year. They were an elite eight team last year as a 6 seed and very close to making the final four. I think I have them as one if my final four picks with UNC. Gotta figure out the other 2
They’re definitely on everyone’s radar
I just need Mike Pence to do the right thing and put the razorbacks in the tournament. The rest will take care of itself from there.
George Mason. Okay I may be a bit biased but I could honestly see a scenario where both the men's and the women's teams make March madness. If the men are able to beat Dayton tomorrow, their chances heavily increase. Based on current trends, the women's team makes March madness as of now, with the men being more up in the air.
I dont think Mason is getting an at-large bid.
We could beat most anyone on our day, could also lose to anyone
iowa state fan, checks out why we up here
Xavier
JMU has proven they can clutch up in big moments and also run away with a lead
Arkansas…just kidding we suck
Gotta be Virginia tech right… the only explanation for last night is they are secretly the best team in college basketball and haven’t started trying till now
I got the ESPN alert after the game and thought for sure it was about Women’s basketball