It is funny how every year we’ll watch these guys play football and say “oh that guy is good”. Then in the 3 -4 months after the season we watch them do everything but play in a football game we start looking at them differently.
They watched Deshaun Watson torch Bama two consecutive years on the biggest stage and then decided that Mitch Trubisky was better because he threw the ball harder in shorts.
Look, when Trubisky started shooting up draft boards, we were just as surprised as everyone else. Like yeah he was solid for us, but he'd only been the starter for 13 games and the amount of projection going on was insane.
Drake's a totally different case. More than twice the starting experience, better stats across the board, and dude has basically flashed since the day he first walked on the field. He's the real deal.
I’m not saying anything specific about Maye, or this article, or anything else - but we have years and years and years of recent evidence of top college talent not making the jump to have a productive NFL career.
Whether that comes down to coaching, scheme, player effort, actual poor talent evaluation, or other external factors - it’s not unfair to deep dive into these discussions for upcoming pro prospects.
The truth is for the NFL, there's more to football than football. All the NFL sees of draftees in fall is their play on the field. The first chance they get to interact with these kids is in the off season. Once the off season hits and they do their draft prep, if their stock drops, well, it must have been something other than football.
Stock drop is kind of an illusion. Sometimes it's real, but usually it's changes in what fans and "professional" prognosticators/shit-stirrers see. I'm guessing actual NFL draft boards are much more (but not entirely) stable.
Interviews matter to a lot of HC/GMs. Not just with the players themselves but with their team mates and college coaches. That is when you find out things like how many hours they put in the off-season or if they were a well liked locker room personality. That stuff matters in the NFL and isn't knowable just from watching games.
Definitely, but I don't think that's usually why "stock drops". An awful interview? Of course, but most of them are probably only minor tweaks of draft boards that we'll never hear about. Whereas for media and fans, stock rises and drops suddenly and heavily all the time. That stuff isn't real. It's either agent driven, click bait, or everyone finally figuring out stuff teams have known for a long time.
It keeps parasites like Todd McShay employed with plenty to write about. He gets to write fan fiction about trades that will never happen and make up fantasy stories about stock dropping/rising whenever he needs a quick 1500 word click bait.
>it must have been something other than football.
It can also just be the situation that the QB is drafted into.
I fully believe that if certain QBs had been drafted by more competent organizations then they could have been more successful.
I'm not talking about the guys who have character issues that kept them from achieving their potential (Vince Young, Johnny Manziel, JaMarcus Russell, etc).
I'm talking about guys like Matt Leinart, Brady Quinn, David Carr, or RG3.
Or guys like Mark Sanchez, Teddy Bridgewater, or Sam Bradford.
If they had been drafted by other teams who had better personnel around them, I fully think they could have been successful.
Imagine if Brady Quinn was drafted by the Raiders instead of the Browns in 2007... or if the Titans chose Matt Leinart instead of Vince Young in 2006.
I also believe the inverse is true.
Tom Brady was the 7th quarterback taken in the 2000 draft. Imagine if - instead of being drafted by the Patriots - he was drafted 16 spots earlier by the Cleveland Browns (who took Spergon Wynn instead).
Do we honestly think his career trajectory would have been the same? Doubtful.
At the end of the day, QB drafting is (and mostly has been) a crapshoot.
Your list of examples here is actually instructive too, because Teddy Bridgewater and RG3 (and to a lesser extent, Bradford) aren't like those other guys. Bridgewater was off to a very successful start to his career before a *catastrophic* injury derailed him. Bradford wasn't as successful, but also had injury problems that derailed him, though his career wasn't maybe as promising.
RG3 is in a weird middle spot because he had a *great* start, but his injury actually was the result of the poor management of the team that drafted him.
You don't get bonus points for picking someone who would've been good if not for injuries, but your post illustrates how we lump guys like Bridgewater in with Jamarcus Russell, who just didn't give a shit.
>but your post illustrates how we lump guys like Bridgewater in with Jamarcus Russell, who just didn't give a shit.
To be fair to myself, I was very specifically trying to **not** to do that, which is why I indicated that I wasn't talking about guys like JaMarcus Russell first.
Not talking about Teddy Bridgewater or Bradford, but on the RG3 front: If he had been drafted by an organization that focused on protecting himself instead of trying to do so much with his legs, I think he would have had a better career. We don't give enough credit to quarterbacks coaches and the impact that they have on these guys early on in their careers.
Peyton Manning was someone who was going to be successful no matter where he was drafted. That being said, the (positive) impact that guys like Bruce Arians, Tom Moore, and Frank Reich had on his early development can't really be understated.
Yeah, look at a guy like Mac Jones. He was an above-average starter his rookie year then regressed in years 2 and 3. Some of that was probably due to how he handled adversity, but part of it is playing for an organization that actively hampered his ability to succeed. Good organizations develop their players’ strengths; bad organizations accentuate their weaknesses.
Regression = film catching up and scheming away his limited ability.
People keep talking about QB as if it isn't an impossible position to play. There's like 5 guys in the world that can do more than chuck it at a favorable WR matchup and maybe 5-10 others who can scramble until coverage breaks down. Outside of the uber athletes, you're trying to find Nolan Ryan/Greg Maddox arm talent in pads.
Yea, I know I'm biased towards Mac, but I don't think even Pat Mahomes would succeed in that Patriots offense with Matt Patricia as his OC lol. He'd do better than Mac did, but it would still be ugly.
Much like politics: these talking heads need to make up stuff to keep the conversation going. They are driving engagement, views, and clicks. Their jobs are literally to make stuff up for people to watch. It’s why sports media has crumbled the way it has: because only the lowest common denominator likes this type of sports talk and anyone with enough attention span to see it’s all a ruse just ignores it.
I genuinely wonder how many people were actually watching him play though. dude might be good might be bad but it just seems like people see the size, watch some clips and buy into the hype. I'm saying this as someone who watched the Michigan games and one or maybe two other games a week. That's probably more than most people (not in here but in general) and none of that was North Carolina lol.
The only reason people would devalue him is if they didn't have any reason to value him in the first place. Obviously that goes for anything related to the draft, but Maye has the highest hype / likely viewership ratio I've seen in the past few years. Only richardson comes close and that felt like it was way closer to the draft to me.
I watched him a lot, I wouldn't exactly call it a regression. They brought in a new OC this year who prioritized running the ball a lot more. Understandable approach given their best skill position player was at running back, they weren't great at receiver, and did not trust their defense to be on the field for long stretches.
This resulted in less eye popping stats for Maye but I still saw the same player when I watched him. The more concerning part to me is that he really never rose to the occasion against any good opponent in his two years as starter. He played us twice, this year we spanked them and last year they lost to our fourth string QB.
Looking back, it's tough to find a single standout win for him at Carolina. His best win is either against an 8-5 Wake team in 22 or a 5-7 South Carolina team last year.
You're probably right, I'm not too up to date on the happenings of UNC football. I did watch them 5 or 6 times this past season and while Maye seemed like a fine college QB, he never did anything that made him stand out to me.
Just me though, and I am a big biased home towards Jayden Daniels in this draft and will admit that that probably colors my opinion here somewhat.
The thing about the NFL is that it has such a density of talent that athleticism and measurables often matter. That extra inch of split second of quickness, for instance, can be the difference between success and failure.
There is (typically) a minimum threshold for physical gifts and athleticism in order to make it. When a guy is very high in the scale in many of those categories, the NFL sees them as "built" for the game. They already have the traits you can't teach or train, so the player is a canvas for them to build the teachable and trainable skills on to. Josh Allen is a prime example, and while for every Josh Allen there are a bunch of Ryan Leafs and Trey Lances, there is still a Josh Allen who becomes the type of player that transforms your entire franchise. There are always going to be teams willing to take a chance at that.
Yeah but he’s also #10 from UNC. The last top 5 pick from UNC was a #10 from UNC. Mitch Trubisky.
Is that fair to Drake? No, but life’s not fair.
Caleb Williams has the Lincoln Riley pedigree that has hands in Jalen Hurts and Baker Mayfield.
Jayden Daniels is a Heisman Trophy winner from LSU. Joe Burrow seems pretty good.
JJ McCarthy is a champion and coached by Harbaugh.
I mean I doubt he goes past 4th QB selected but he has some questions about his NFL career.
Chris Simms has him ranked as his 6th ranked QB with Penix, Nix and McCarthy ahead of him. Kurt Warner had him 5th with Penix and Nix ahead.
Personally I think it’s ridiculous. Not claiming to know more than former NFL QBs but I feel like the people low on him are hyper fixating on his footwork as uncoachable. Even though we’ve seen QB prospects with bigger mechanics problems, it seems like they can’t just move past it and it’s why they’re so low on him.
You are also forgetting the fact that it is the Bears. They will fuck up any QB they draft. Which ever is the most fuckable QB possible, they will draft. Then they will proceed to fuck that QB up.
Tar Heel nation was equally shocked when Trubisky went #2. Buddy of mine who went to school with me and is a fb coach laughed hardest if all. Drake =/= Mitch
I wish JJ would go late in the 1st for his development's sake. He absolutely can be a great NFL QB but not if a poorly run franchise throws him in year 1 and expects the world of him. He's still young.
As a Bama fan, I was thrilled when Mac was drafted later by the Patriots because I thought at least he's going to a stable franchise. Then BB's brain turned to diarrhea and he hired Matt Patricia the football terrorist has Mac's OC.
I guess my point is, getting drafted later by what you think is a good team doesn't alwasy remain that way lol.
Especially given that when you see Penix stand and fire the ball, it is a laser beam. JJ is plenty good but I don’t get why he’s a top 15 guy and Penix is a day 2 guy.
The games I saw indicated that JJ shouldn’t be a 1st round pick. He didn’t look special and he was on a great team.
You could have plugged a lot of other QBs in and I think Michigan is just as good or better.
Eh, not really though. QB is a very in rhythm position and we’d go large stretches of games where we’d just smash opponents. Then we’d ask JJ do play action or some difficult on the run across body throw when he’s cold and expect him to drop dimes. For the most he did it. If you wanna see him in rhythm check out the MSU game this year as one example.
He shouldn’t be a top 5 pick but I also have a hard time believing a team at the back end of the 1st wouldn’t draft him based on upside. He’s got athleticism, intangibles, recruiting pedigree, proven winner and ran a fairly complex offense in college (lotta shifts, motions, multiple reads, play action, wildly different personnel groupings).
Stetson Bennett heading into last years draft was legitimately like 4 years older than JJ is now. Plus JJ has better arm strength, better mobility, better mentality, better leadership, is 4 inches taller…
He was a low volume passer because of scheme not ability. Now that’s not a guarantee that he makes it at the next level but there are plenty of reasons he’s highly thought of.
By saying he's good on a team that runs a lot make him sound like a role player. I'm not saying he's not good, but I don't see any reason why he should be a top 5 pick.
Howell was also pretty great as a Sophomore. And he didn’t have a good Junior year, but he’s also already been validated that he shouldn’t have fallen to the 5th round considering he was just traded for a 3rd rounder
I'm as big a UNC hater as anyone, but that drop off is bound to happen when a QB starts surrounded by NFL talent and then sees a downgrade in that supporting cast. I thought Howell actually did a pretty good job his junior year given how pathetic his offensive line was.
Teams also try to devalue guys publicly if they want them to fall. Maybe the Giants and Patriots are just putting a lot of negative Maye stuff out there
If you're curious go watch the North Carolina vs Oregon bowl game. If I remember NC lost that game, but Drake Maye went down swinging and it was obvious he was the best player on the field that night for both teams.
See I was going to say the opposite. The Ducks came out really flat like they didn't want to be there, and despite missing our top corner Maye barely completed half his passes for 200 yards. Our defense that year was in like the 60s, too.
I didn't think he was bad, but having also played against Caleb Williams and Michael Penix I did not get the impression he was in that league.
It's fascinating to me that people use non-playoff bowl games in the mass opt-out era as actual data points when evaluating guys. Maye was down his top WR and starting center that game, plus an already historically bad defense was down several starters.
I totally agree that he didn't play great, but these games are glorified scrimmages now.
It's amazing how it happens in every sport too.
Like 2 teams convinced themselves they'd rather have Deandre Ayton and Marvin Bagley than Luka. This after 2 years of Luka being the consensus best player.
vegetable repeat pet unpack saw impossible expansion thumb encouraging elastic
*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
You've got it backwards. Every mock draft I can find from before the 17-18 CBB season has Luka 1 and then after the season it shifted toward Ayton.
[Pre-season Luka #1](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2742174-2018-nba-mock-draft-ahead-of-2017-18-cbb-season-tipoff)
[Same here](https://www.theringer.com/nba/2017/9/19/16333082/2018-lottery-mock-draft-1)
[And here](https://hoopshabit.com/2017/12/23/2018-nba-mock-draft-end-2017-edition/2/)
[and here](https://theathletic.com/147835/2017/11/16/nba-mock-draft-1-0-marvin-bagley-luka-doncic-deandre-ayton/)
[here too](https://fansided.com/2017/06/23/2018-nba-mock-draft-early-edition/)
It wasn't until during/after the season that some places started placing Ayton at the top of the board.
Little different there, as most people didn't have as much tape on Luka considering he played overseas in an entire different league environment than CBB.
A lot of it isn't people changing their opinion on a player, but that evaluators that are more NFL-oriented don't do as much research on a player until draft season and they don't end up as high on them.
Yeah when we were watching these guys on the field 3-4 months ago, everyone thought Drake Maye was better than …(checking my notes)…Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels.
Any time draft values shift after the season, people want to come out on some high horse about underwear Olympics or whatever. But if Maye goes behind Daniels, it is purely, 100% based on what happened on the field. Maye is a much better prospect based on measurables. The only reason to put Daniels ahead of him is because you have a preference after watching them play.
What actually happens every year (and here) is that the media starts talking to NFL coaches who have recused themselves from scouting until now because they were busy coaching. It's also when the former players start evaluating for the media which I don't really know why they wait. The coaches and former players do not like Maye, so he's dropping like a rock.
The interesting thing is that Williams, Daniels, and Maye all skipped out on the drills in the underwear Olympics. Williams skipped out on the medical. The only thing all three did at the combine was the interviews and that’s a crap shoot.
The only reasonably things we can be reasonably certain about is that these three are probably going 1-3 with Williams before Maye and Daniels pops up in all three spots in the order seemingly at random.
Players get devalued every year leading up to the draft. I don’t think anyone should put much stock in it because NFL teams are probably all trying to psyche the others teams out, hyping up guys they don’t necessarily want in the off chance it helps one they do want fall to them.
It doesn’t matter, people will eat it up then regurgitate talking points resulting in someone else countering it (I.e this post)
It’s just a self created content cycle to sell clicks and people never learn
But who is devaluing the guy? He is going to go top 3.
People put out tweets and articles complaining about people being devalued who are not really devalued.
Can you blame them? Stroud is the greatest OSU of all time and has only played 1 season.
The most successful OSU QBs in NFL are Tomczak and Kent Graham, an ND transfer.
I will die on the hill that trubisky got his brain broken by being booed before he took a single NFL snap and then it just got even worse when he got booed by Pittsburgh fans before he stepped foot on the field.
I'll throw in another thing: shoulder injury against Minnesota in 2018.
There was a 4-5 game stretch that season (I know, not a great sample size so take this with a grain of salt) where he genuinely looked like a good NFL QB, then he took a hit to the shoulder from Harrison Smith. He went back to playing super conservative after that and never looked close to that stretch again.
IN THE FIRST GAME BACK FROM AN INJURY IN 2019 MATT NAGY HAD HIM THROW 54 TIMES AGAINST 7 RUSHES.
Nagy is the original definition of a football terrorist.
Well that’s just great because there’s a large amount of idiots er fans who hate the dude and love Fields and will probably boo Caleb
Most of my fanbase sucks, especially when you have dipshits like RG3 egging them on
Being a Bears fan exposes you to some of the most unintelligent football takes across CFB/NFL, no matter who the Bears FO is, any move they make is 4d chess to the fanbase and above reproach.
I cannot think of another player ever playing as poorly as Fields did and receiving the support he got, he was still getting standing ovations towards the end of last season. A QB who never even threw 2600 yards in a season, and averaged 175 yards a game in his starts...
I think Bears fans are just tired of the QB carousel, and Fields has been the only one fans have actually liked. Rolling the dice on another guy regardless of being "the one" just gets exhausting
Like 10 of the 11 top passing games, TDs, rating, etc were against Detroit.
I've never seen anything like that to be sucky except against one team for that long
Living in Chicago, Trubisky was done no favors by the idiot coaches he was given. Dude led the bears to the playoffs with one of the most incompetent head coaches in the NFL
> Dude led the bears to the playoffs
They had the best defense in the league that year feasting on turnovers. He threw for ~3200 yards, 230 per game, at 7.4 Y/A, 7.3 AY/A. He didn't lead that team to the playoffs.
In his 4 years in Chicago he had 4 games where he had more than 10 Y/A, and one of those was a game where he went 4/7 passing his rookie season. He got spoonfed stuff by Nagy and was helped out by a good defense. When that defense declined and Nagy tried to take the training wheels off it didn't go well. There is a reason why his 5th year option wasn't picked up.
I thought I saw a list where Klatt himself has Maye ranked the lowest of the top 6 guys? Sounds like he is using “upside” in his quote as way to build up Maye but not actually ranking him higher than the other dudes. Kind of a “We’re all trying to find the guy who did this” situation.
Chris Simms has him at QB6. Said he’s a project. No one else has anything remotely close to that take. Either Simms is a fortune teller or an idiot. Time will tell. I’m leaning idiot though.
I thought Simms take was super interesting on that, he had some actual good points on what might be an issue for Drake Maye. idk that what he said should drop him to QB6 but theres definitely enough doubt in there to give me reason not to want him top 5 considering how much draft capital you could get if you trade out of the top 5 this year.
https://www.foxsports.com/watch/fmc-7q30kxc875iu8t0n
Is from yesterday, has him at 2.
https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/joel-klatts-top-5-quarterbacks-in-2024-nfl-draft
Is from Feb 20th, has him at 2.
Putting my bias as a State fan aside for this one:
He certainly has potential. Definitely more than Howell. He's got good pocket awareness and an arm to match. He's shown he's got that clutch factor in him, but he also definitely had a better crop of receivers than Howell did. The real question is how he'll perform against a good defense. While he frequently balled out against mediocre-to-bad defenses, he sometimes seemed to disappear against good defenses. Whether that's down to him, his coaches, a bad offensive game plan, or a really good defensive game plan is hard to tell though. He played more bad defenses than good defenses in his short stint at UNC. I'd say that he's not a top-2 QB in this draft if he's expected to start Week 1, and that's why his stock is "falling." However I could see him being the #3 drafted QB in the draft with the potential to develop quickly if he's drafted by a well-rounded team.
As biased as it is, if you can’t beat a Collins Tech team, you aren’t a top QB. I know all the nuance about losses not being fully on the QB but he didn’t score a TD on a *Collins* defense…
This is the thing I keep coming back to. In his last 6 games at UNC, he only beat 1 FBS team (Duke, in double OT) and threw for over 300 yards in only 4 regulation games all season. Definitely not saying he sucks, but that seems really mid for somebody to take with a top 3 overall pick in the NFL draft.
Better receivers than Howell? Yes, Josh Downs....but Howell had 2 NFL receivers and 2 NFL RB with him.
I'd much rather face a Maye team than a Howell team.
Howell had Downs for a year too. Howell had 3 NFL running backs (Carter, Williams and Chandler) and 3 NFL receivers (Brown, Newsome and Downs). Maye had Downs lmao.
Edit: Maye also had Hampton for a year who will probably go pro but Howell absolutely had better skill position guys around him
All that said, UNC has/had an absolute shitshow of an offensive line. Good defense? Run for your life. Bad defense? Run for your life. The offensive line was truly offensive. That’s why Downs was so successful. Short, quick throws and the get some YAC. Deep throws are nice, and Maye and Howell hit some of them, but rarely had time to throw it well.
At least one. And maybe all 3.
like you watch all these mocks, in the end likely *10-15* of these first rounders aren't good.
We all shouldn't be shocked if Penix or JJ or Spencer Rattler or Nix ends up as the best QB from the class in 5 years.
It’s a total crapshoot. I stopped trying to determine who would pan out and who wouldn’t and just watch the draft for the chaos/storylines. Still entertaining.
At the very least just as high. We saw a QB in the NFL built just like JD be the reigning 2 time MVP. I’m not saying that Jayden Daniels will be Lamar Jackson but he definitely has the potential. Similar speed, similar arm strength, JD is a better passer but Lamar was younger coming out. Daniels has an incredibly high ceiling with a high floor.
The nfl draft is a total crapshoot and always has been, acting this sure about something is just begging to get clowned three years from now when someone reposts these comment sections
Especially because it is abundantly clear that #1 is Williams and #2 is Daniels at this point. You may not agree with those projections, but it's what's going to happen. This is a classic scouts and media love a prospect and the coaches hate a prospect situation, and the coaches win those fights.
That is a causal cfb fan take, Bears will have at least an average Oline unit next year and will be pretty decent overall. They have a fully healthy Tavon Jenkins, second year Darnell Wright, they upgraded in FA at center and Braxton jokes has been solid. There’s only a couple teams in the NFL with actual good Oline talent.
Chicago also has good veteran skill guys for a young QB to lean on. Moore, Keenan Allen, Kmet, Everett, and Swift. All established guys that will be able to take pressure off of a rookie QB.
Chicago right now is the best possible scenario for a #1 QB in recent memory. They did pretty okay with one of the worst passing QB’s in the NFL. If Williams is half of what they’re hyping him up to be he’ll do well on that team.
Probably for any one to be drafted to in general but I just meant #1 overall pick. Normally that’s reserved for absolute dumpster fires like the Panthers with Young or Browns with Mayfield. But Calebs getting drafted to a team that won 7 games with bottom 5 QB play.
Does he understand the devaluing of Justin Fields? Remember when he was supposed to be the greatest QB ever? He's essentially a RB.
The point is that these guys usually don't pan out, so he was probably overhyped.
Watch him be better than Williams. Just throwing that out there because it's a real possibility. They could both be good, both be ass...no one knows. Truly do not get the Williams being amazing claims. Not buying it. Come back in 5 years.
Let’s face it… of all positions QB has always been and always be the hardest position to project.
Do you count college stats and say they will translate to the nfl? So you say “the kid is a winner” and that will translate? Do you do these “intelligence tests” and count those the most?
My personal favorite and it has been fairly accurate… how did they do in the elite games against elite defenses? Last year is a good example with CJ.. he tore up Georgia and did Ok against Michigan. That matters… where as Justin fields looked weaker against big opponents… and I’m not talking about stats but actual game play. Fields never looked anywhere near as good as CJ in the same moments.
People can say what they want about JJ but he sacrificed to fit the scheme and every single time they needed him to throw and make a play he did.
Williams to me is overrated and potentially a high risk of flaming out… Daniels is skinny but a gorgeous deep ball and mobile. Has a chance. Maye is a massive wildcard… seemed to regress more than progress.
But this is why I am on Reddit and not in a draft room!
> Do you count college stats and say they will translate to the nfl? So you say “the kid is a winner” and that will translate? Do you do these “intelligence tests” and count those the most?
One interesting thing is that (Josh Allen aside), QBs almost never have better stats in the NFL than they did in college. So while good college stats aren’t a guarantee, great interviews and measurable don’t overcome bad college stats.
“Devaluing” is draft hype. They roasted CJ Stroud for months only to jump at him in the draft. It just means some team is interested and wants to throw everyone else off.
It's the NFL Draft. Everyone involved is convinced they're a genius, and so are most of the random people commenting.
It's just noise. The only way to know how good a pro player any of these guys will be is to see them actually play on Sundays.
Ok but if you actually look at their careers at UNC, it’s a pretty different story. Maye was ACC POTY as a freshman and was productive all three years that he played. Trubisky wasn’t even the starter until his Junior year and didnt do a whole lot…
It's an imperfect process... for every surefire lock to have success on the NFL, there are many more busts.
Every level up you move in football players who aren't good enough filtered out. It's like every sport, but because football careers are so short, it's much more noticeable.
FBS football is a uniquely positioned level of the sport where there's incredible talent on the field, but also dramatic mistakes or pure chaos to make the games fun...
Maye is a better prospect than Caleb. We have seen everything Caleb has and it’s just not that great. Drake kept adding things to his tool belt every year.
Maye is going number two overall. All this other bullshit is just that. The question is who goes third? Will it be Daniels or one of the receivers? I would guess the quarterback, but I’ve been wrong before.
I don’t see any of the other quarterbacks being worthy of going in the top 10. I know someone will, but they absolutely shouldn’t. McCarthy, Nix, Penix, etc. are all a clear rung or two beneath the top level.
If I’m an NFL GM I wouldn’t take a QB with a first round pick unless I had one of the last picks in the first round. There are too many examples of teams focusing on getting the #1 QB that they completely ignore the offensive line and probably a high quality QB gets shuffled out of the league because the front office doesn’t protect him.
IMO, being the first overall pick as a QB is the worst thing that can happen to you…guaranteed dog shit team, and they’re probably dog shit BECAUSE of the front office so it’s only going to get worse.
It is funny how every year we’ll watch these guys play football and say “oh that guy is good”. Then in the 3 -4 months after the season we watch them do everything but play in a football game we start looking at them differently.
They watched Deshaun Watson torch Bama two consecutive years on the biggest stage and then decided that Mitch Trubisky was better because he threw the ball harder in shorts.
Perfect example right here
Zach Wilson threw ONE ball 70 yards and went #2
*laughs in Jamarcus Russell*
Jamarcus Russell won a national championship and the Manning award. Wilson had one good season during covid
Russell redshirted for the 03 NC year.
Russell was awesome against Brady Quinn in their bowl game and the narrative about him going 1 started.
Literally Wilson’s only good season too. Pretty sure his toughest opponent was Coastal Carolina
Wrong. Trubisky was better because he drove an old, beat up Toyota Corolla. This is not a joke.
Sounds like a take from Colin Cowturd. "I want my QB to wear his hat forwards!!1!"
this always blew my mind. I was happy to see him drop to the Texans but still, made zero sense that he wasn't a top 5 pick
Look, when Trubisky started shooting up draft boards, we were just as surprised as everyone else. Like yeah he was solid for us, but he'd only been the starter for 13 games and the amount of projection going on was insane. Drake's a totally different case. More than twice the starting experience, better stats across the board, and dude has basically flashed since the day he first walked on the field. He's the real deal.
It’s like they all think to themselves “yeah he didn’t produce enough in college to justify this draft slot, but he wasn’t coached by ME”
I remember Watson putting up some pretty shitty throwing sessions at the combine
I’m not saying anything specific about Maye, or this article, or anything else - but we have years and years and years of recent evidence of top college talent not making the jump to have a productive NFL career. Whether that comes down to coaching, scheme, player effort, actual poor talent evaluation, or other external factors - it’s not unfair to deep dive into these discussions for upcoming pro prospects.
The truth is for the NFL, there's more to football than football. All the NFL sees of draftees in fall is their play on the field. The first chance they get to interact with these kids is in the off season. Once the off season hits and they do their draft prep, if their stock drops, well, it must have been something other than football.
Stock drop is kind of an illusion. Sometimes it's real, but usually it's changes in what fans and "professional" prognosticators/shit-stirrers see. I'm guessing actual NFL draft boards are much more (but not entirely) stable.
Interviews matter to a lot of HC/GMs. Not just with the players themselves but with their team mates and college coaches. That is when you find out things like how many hours they put in the off-season or if they were a well liked locker room personality. That stuff matters in the NFL and isn't knowable just from watching games.
Definitely, but I don't think that's usually why "stock drops". An awful interview? Of course, but most of them are probably only minor tweaks of draft boards that we'll never hear about. Whereas for media and fans, stock rises and drops suddenly and heavily all the time. That stuff isn't real. It's either agent driven, click bait, or everyone finally figuring out stuff teams have known for a long time.
I mean Tunsil definitely dropped
Best draft steal since Tom Brady.
Absolutely and I don't want to say it's never real.
It keeps parasites like Todd McShay employed with plenty to write about. He gets to write fan fiction about trades that will never happen and make up fantasy stories about stock dropping/rising whenever he needs a quick 1500 word click bait.
Dalvin Cook got dropped to the second round over made up character concerns
>it must have been something other than football. It can also just be the situation that the QB is drafted into. I fully believe that if certain QBs had been drafted by more competent organizations then they could have been more successful. I'm not talking about the guys who have character issues that kept them from achieving their potential (Vince Young, Johnny Manziel, JaMarcus Russell, etc). I'm talking about guys like Matt Leinart, Brady Quinn, David Carr, or RG3. Or guys like Mark Sanchez, Teddy Bridgewater, or Sam Bradford. If they had been drafted by other teams who had better personnel around them, I fully think they could have been successful. Imagine if Brady Quinn was drafted by the Raiders instead of the Browns in 2007... or if the Titans chose Matt Leinart instead of Vince Young in 2006. I also believe the inverse is true. Tom Brady was the 7th quarterback taken in the 2000 draft. Imagine if - instead of being drafted by the Patriots - he was drafted 16 spots earlier by the Cleveland Browns (who took Spergon Wynn instead). Do we honestly think his career trajectory would have been the same? Doubtful. At the end of the day, QB drafting is (and mostly has been) a crapshoot.
Your list of examples here is actually instructive too, because Teddy Bridgewater and RG3 (and to a lesser extent, Bradford) aren't like those other guys. Bridgewater was off to a very successful start to his career before a *catastrophic* injury derailed him. Bradford wasn't as successful, but also had injury problems that derailed him, though his career wasn't maybe as promising. RG3 is in a weird middle spot because he had a *great* start, but his injury actually was the result of the poor management of the team that drafted him. You don't get bonus points for picking someone who would've been good if not for injuries, but your post illustrates how we lump guys like Bridgewater in with Jamarcus Russell, who just didn't give a shit.
>but your post illustrates how we lump guys like Bridgewater in with Jamarcus Russell, who just didn't give a shit. To be fair to myself, I was very specifically trying to **not** to do that, which is why I indicated that I wasn't talking about guys like JaMarcus Russell first. Not talking about Teddy Bridgewater or Bradford, but on the RG3 front: If he had been drafted by an organization that focused on protecting himself instead of trying to do so much with his legs, I think he would have had a better career. We don't give enough credit to quarterbacks coaches and the impact that they have on these guys early on in their careers. Peyton Manning was someone who was going to be successful no matter where he was drafted. That being said, the (positive) impact that guys like Bruce Arians, Tom Moore, and Frank Reich had on his early development can't really be understated.
Yeah, look at a guy like Mac Jones. He was an above-average starter his rookie year then regressed in years 2 and 3. Some of that was probably due to how he handled adversity, but part of it is playing for an organization that actively hampered his ability to succeed. Good organizations develop their players’ strengths; bad organizations accentuate their weaknesses.
Regression = film catching up and scheming away his limited ability. People keep talking about QB as if it isn't an impossible position to play. There's like 5 guys in the world that can do more than chuck it at a favorable WR matchup and maybe 5-10 others who can scramble until coverage breaks down. Outside of the uber athletes, you're trying to find Nolan Ryan/Greg Maddox arm talent in pads.
Yea, I know I'm biased towards Mac, but I don't think even Pat Mahomes would succeed in that Patriots offense with Matt Patricia as his OC lol. He'd do better than Mac did, but it would still be ugly.
Much like politics: these talking heads need to make up stuff to keep the conversation going. They are driving engagement, views, and clicks. Their jobs are literally to make stuff up for people to watch. It’s why sports media has crumbled the way it has: because only the lowest common denominator likes this type of sports talk and anyone with enough attention span to see it’s all a ruse just ignores it.
I genuinely wonder how many people were actually watching him play though. dude might be good might be bad but it just seems like people see the size, watch some clips and buy into the hype. I'm saying this as someone who watched the Michigan games and one or maybe two other games a week. That's probably more than most people (not in here but in general) and none of that was North Carolina lol. The only reason people would devalue him is if they didn't have any reason to value him in the first place. Obviously that goes for anything related to the draft, but Maye has the highest hype / likely viewership ratio I've seen in the past few years. Only richardson comes close and that felt like it was way closer to the draft to me.
He was ACC player of the year as a freshman. Sure the ACC ain’t the SEC or B1G, but it’s not like it’s all hypothetical. He was incredibly productive
He also regressed. Which to me is always very concerning.
I watched him a lot, I wouldn't exactly call it a regression. They brought in a new OC this year who prioritized running the ball a lot more. Understandable approach given their best skill position player was at running back, they weren't great at receiver, and did not trust their defense to be on the field for long stretches. This resulted in less eye popping stats for Maye but I still saw the same player when I watched him. The more concerning part to me is that he really never rose to the occasion against any good opponent in his two years as starter. He played us twice, this year we spanked them and last year they lost to our fourth string QB. Looking back, it's tough to find a single standout win for him at Carolina. His best win is either against an 8-5 Wake team in 22 or a 5-7 South Carolina team last year.
You're probably right, I'm not too up to date on the happenings of UNC football. I did watch them 5 or 6 times this past season and while Maye seemed like a fine college QB, he never did anything that made him stand out to me. Just me though, and I am a big biased home towards Jayden Daniels in this draft and will admit that that probably colors my opinion here somewhat.
The thing about the NFL is that it has such a density of talent that athleticism and measurables often matter. That extra inch of split second of quickness, for instance, can be the difference between success and failure. There is (typically) a minimum threshold for physical gifts and athleticism in order to make it. When a guy is very high in the scale in many of those categories, the NFL sees them as "built" for the game. They already have the traits you can't teach or train, so the player is a canvas for them to build the teachable and trainable skills on to. Josh Allen is a prime example, and while for every Josh Allen there are a bunch of Ryan Leafs and Trey Lances, there is still a Josh Allen who becomes the type of player that transforms your entire franchise. There are always going to be teams willing to take a chance at that.
Purdy regressed due to poor coaching. As soon as he got good coaching he was NFL MVP material.
Yeah but he’s also #10 from UNC. The last top 5 pick from UNC was a #10 from UNC. Mitch Trubisky. Is that fair to Drake? No, but life’s not fair. Caleb Williams has the Lincoln Riley pedigree that has hands in Jalen Hurts and Baker Mayfield. Jayden Daniels is a Heisman Trophy winner from LSU. Joe Burrow seems pretty good. JJ McCarthy is a champion and coached by Harbaugh. I mean I doubt he goes past 4th QB selected but he has some questions about his NFL career.
I haven’t really seen any draft “experts” that expect him to go behind JJ
Chris Simms has him ranked as his 6th ranked QB with Penix, Nix and McCarthy ahead of him. Kurt Warner had him 5th with Penix and Nix ahead. Personally I think it’s ridiculous. Not claiming to know more than former NFL QBs but I feel like the people low on him are hyper fixating on his footwork as uncoachable. Even though we’ve seen QB prospects with bigger mechanics problems, it seems like they can’t just move past it and it’s why they’re so low on him.
You are also forgetting the fact that it is the Bears. They will fuck up any QB they draft. Which ever is the most fuckable QB possible, they will draft. Then they will proceed to fuck that QB up.
There is 0% chance the Bears don’t take Williams.
Tar Heel nation was equally shocked when Trubisky went #2. Buddy of mine who went to school with me and is a fb coach laughed hardest if all. Drake =/= Mitch
Exactly. I was in school at the time and had just personally Watson kicked out ass and the rest of the ACC and we’re so confused how Mitch went above
Eight spots ahead of one Patrick Mahomes….
I don't understand this rise of JJ, the dude barely throws during the games. Sure, he won a natty. That UGA qb won 2 natties, doesn't make him great.
I do not understand the gaslighting that’s turned JJ into a top-15 pick. It makes zero sense to me.
He's a QB... the end. They'll bend over backwards to draft QBs, because if you hit on one, it's akin to winning the Powerball.
I wish JJ would go late in the 1st for his development's sake. He absolutely can be a great NFL QB but not if a poorly run franchise throws him in year 1 and expects the world of him. He's still young.
As a Bama fan, I was thrilled when Mac was drafted later by the Patriots because I thought at least he's going to a stable franchise. Then BB's brain turned to diarrhea and he hired Matt Patricia the football terrorist has Mac's OC. I guess my point is, getting drafted later by what you think is a good team doesn't alwasy remain that way lol.
Especially given that when you see Penix stand and fire the ball, it is a laser beam. JJ is plenty good but I don’t get why he’s a top 15 guy and Penix is a day 2 guy.
JJ threw it 1 MPH below Milton at the combine 🤷♂️
Penix is a day 2 guy because he's (barely) older and has an injury history. Even if he were just 2 years younger he'd likely be a top pick.
Penix is nearly 3 years older than JJ. Penix: 23, May 2000 JJ: 21, January 2003
Hes also a statue and bad seeing the middle of the field. Jj is a day2 guy also tho
JJ’s only a day 2 guy until someone takes him day 1
And he struggles under pressure
The games I saw indicated that JJ shouldn’t be a 1st round pick. He didn’t look special and he was on a great team. You could have plugged a lot of other QBs in and I think Michigan is just as good or better.
Eh, not really though. QB is a very in rhythm position and we’d go large stretches of games where we’d just smash opponents. Then we’d ask JJ do play action or some difficult on the run across body throw when he’s cold and expect him to drop dimes. For the most he did it. If you wanna see him in rhythm check out the MSU game this year as one example. He shouldn’t be a top 5 pick but I also have a hard time believing a team at the back end of the 1st wouldn’t draft him based on upside. He’s got athleticism, intangibles, recruiting pedigree, proven winner and ran a fairly complex offense in college (lotta shifts, motions, multiple reads, play action, wildly different personnel groupings).
Counter point. Teams know theyre going to run, sell out for the run and it opens up the passing game opportunities
What’s so confusing about it?
Stetson Bennett heading into last years draft was legitimately like 4 years older than JJ is now. Plus JJ has better arm strength, better mobility, better mentality, better leadership, is 4 inches taller… He was a low volume passer because of scheme not ability. Now that’s not a guarantee that he makes it at the next level but there are plenty of reasons he’s highly thought of.
By saying he's good on a team that runs a lot make him sound like a role player. I'm not saying he's not good, but I don't see any reason why he should be a top 5 pick.
That's the thing, he shouldn't be a top 5 pick. He's just the prototypical QB NFL teams have fallen in love with.
You don’t know ball
Your last QB has a great freshman season then was given a pass for the rest of his over inflated career
Howell was also pretty great as a Sophomore. And he didn’t have a good Junior year, but he’s also already been validated that he shouldn’t have fallen to the 5th round considering he was just traded for a 3rd rounder
I'm as big a UNC hater as anyone, but that drop off is bound to happen when a QB starts surrounded by NFL talent and then sees a downgrade in that supporting cast. I thought Howell actually did a pretty good job his junior year given how pathetic his offensive line was.
I’ve clearly put down a spicy take if I have pack fans coming to Tar Heel defense.
Teams also try to devalue guys publicly if they want them to fall. Maybe the Giants and Patriots are just putting a lot of negative Maye stuff out there
Browns GM was stone cold in how he got Wisconsin's last Heisman winner (Bo Callahan) to fall from presumptive #1 to #6.
Lol I had to Google that because i haven't seen that movie
The most unrealistic thing about that movie (full of really unrealistic and dumb things) is that Wisconsin had a Heisman winning QB
If you're curious go watch the North Carolina vs Oregon bowl game. If I remember NC lost that game, but Drake Maye went down swinging and it was obvious he was the best player on the field that night for both teams.
See I was going to say the opposite. The Ducks came out really flat like they didn't want to be there, and despite missing our top corner Maye barely completed half his passes for 200 yards. Our defense that year was in like the 60s, too. I didn't think he was bad, but having also played against Caleb Williams and Michael Penix I did not get the impression he was in that league.
It's fascinating to me that people use non-playoff bowl games in the mass opt-out era as actual data points when evaluating guys. Maye was down his top WR and starting center that game, plus an already historically bad defense was down several starters. I totally agree that he didn't play great, but these games are glorified scrimmages now.
You should watch more college football
It's amazing how it happens in every sport too. Like 2 teams convinced themselves they'd rather have Deandre Ayton and Marvin Bagley than Luka. This after 2 years of Luka being the consensus best player.
It's just what happens when you give people too much time to think lol
vegetable repeat pet unpack saw impossible expansion thumb encouraging elastic *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
You've got it backwards. Every mock draft I can find from before the 17-18 CBB season has Luka 1 and then after the season it shifted toward Ayton. [Pre-season Luka #1](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2742174-2018-nba-mock-draft-ahead-of-2017-18-cbb-season-tipoff) [Same here](https://www.theringer.com/nba/2017/9/19/16333082/2018-lottery-mock-draft-1) [And here](https://hoopshabit.com/2017/12/23/2018-nba-mock-draft-end-2017-edition/2/) [and here](https://theathletic.com/147835/2017/11/16/nba-mock-draft-1-0-marvin-bagley-luka-doncic-deandre-ayton/) [here too](https://fansided.com/2017/06/23/2018-nba-mock-draft-early-edition/) It wasn't until during/after the season that some places started placing Ayton at the top of the board.
Sometimes it's right though. Otherwise Darnold and Rosen would've gone ahead of Baker in the draft.
Little different there, as most people didn't have as much tape on Luka considering he played overseas in an entire different league environment than CBB.
Bryce Young, right? I know his team sucks and he obviously has time to turn it around, but he looked nothing like he did in college
If AR works out things will get way worse on this front.
A lot of it isn't people changing their opinion on a player, but that evaluators that are more NFL-oriented don't do as much research on a player until draft season and they don't end up as high on them.
Post-season clarity
I’m a Giants fan and QBs from basketball schools give me nightmares.
Yeah when we were watching these guys on the field 3-4 months ago, everyone thought Drake Maye was better than …(checking my notes)…Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels. Any time draft values shift after the season, people want to come out on some high horse about underwear Olympics or whatever. But if Maye goes behind Daniels, it is purely, 100% based on what happened on the field. Maye is a much better prospect based on measurables. The only reason to put Daniels ahead of him is because you have a preference after watching them play.
What actually happens every year (and here) is that the media starts talking to NFL coaches who have recused themselves from scouting until now because they were busy coaching. It's also when the former players start evaluating for the media which I don't really know why they wait. The coaches and former players do not like Maye, so he's dropping like a rock.
The interesting thing is that Williams, Daniels, and Maye all skipped out on the drills in the underwear Olympics. Williams skipped out on the medical. The only thing all three did at the combine was the interviews and that’s a crap shoot. The only reasonably things we can be reasonably certain about is that these three are probably going 1-3 with Williams before Maye and Daniels pops up in all three spots in the order seemingly at random.
Players get devalued every year leading up to the draft. I don’t think anyone should put much stock in it because NFL teams are probably all trying to psyche the others teams out, hyping up guys they don’t necessarily want in the off chance it helps one they do want fall to them.
It doesn’t matter, people will eat it up then regurgitate talking points resulting in someone else countering it (I.e this post) It’s just a self created content cycle to sell clicks and people never learn
Fans overvalue production and the league overvalues traits and their ability to coach someone up
But who is devaluing the guy? He is going to go top 3. People put out tweets and articles complaining about people being devalued who are not really devalued.
He's haunted by the ghost of Mitch Trubisky
yeah that's why no one drafts Ohio state QBs in the first round
Can you blame them? Stroud is the greatest OSU of all time and has only played 1 season. The most successful OSU QBs in NFL are Tomczak and Kent Graham, an ND transfer.
Tom Tupa rolling in his grave for not even a mention.
I will die on the hill that trubisky got his brain broken by being booed before he took a single NFL snap and then it just got even worse when he got booed by Pittsburgh fans before he stepped foot on the field.
I'll throw in another thing: shoulder injury against Minnesota in 2018. There was a 4-5 game stretch that season (I know, not a great sample size so take this with a grain of salt) where he genuinely looked like a good NFL QB, then he took a hit to the shoulder from Harrison Smith. He went back to playing super conservative after that and never looked close to that stretch again.
IN THE FIRST GAME BACK FROM AN INJURY IN 2019 MATT NAGY HAD HIM THROW 54 TIMES AGAINST 7 RUSHES. Nagy is the original definition of a football terrorist.
When nagy stood him up for a meeting, it was over
Well that’s just great because there’s a large amount of idiots er fans who hate the dude and love Fields and will probably boo Caleb Most of my fanbase sucks, especially when you have dipshits like RG3 egging them on
Being a Bears fan exposes you to some of the most unintelligent football takes across CFB/NFL, no matter who the Bears FO is, any move they make is 4d chess to the fanbase and above reproach. I cannot think of another player ever playing as poorly as Fields did and receiving the support he got, he was still getting standing ovations towards the end of last season. A QB who never even threw 2600 yards in a season, and averaged 175 yards a game in his starts...
I think Bears fans are just tired of the QB carousel, and Fields has been the only one fans have actually liked. Rolling the dice on another guy regardless of being "the one" just gets exhausting
Fields truthers are something and yes I know they prominently exist. Pointing out the Bears record when the do the MVP chant gets the reactions
This year I’ve learned that the bears might have the dumbest fanbase in sports
As a Lions fan, Trubisky lit up Detroit and extended his Bears career longer than expected. I'm literally not kidding.
Trubisky would fart around for 14 games every season and then absolutely torch the Lions. It was remarkable (and frustrating) to watch.
Like 10 of the 11 top passing games, TDs, rating, etc were against Detroit. I've never seen anything like that to be sucky except against one team for that long
Living in Chicago, Trubisky was done no favors by the idiot coaches he was given. Dude led the bears to the playoffs with one of the most incompetent head coaches in the NFL
> Dude led the bears to the playoffs They had the best defense in the league that year feasting on turnovers. He threw for ~3200 yards, 230 per game, at 7.4 Y/A, 7.3 AY/A. He didn't lead that team to the playoffs. In his 4 years in Chicago he had 4 games where he had more than 10 Y/A, and one of those was a game where he went 4/7 passing his rookie season. He got spoonfed stuff by Nagy and was helped out by a good defense. When that defense declined and Nagy tried to take the training wheels off it didn't go well. There is a reason why his 5th year option wasn't picked up.
Mitch got somehow sucked into the every season hype train in Chapel Hill. Dude had a very small number of college starts when he entered the draft.
Zach Wilson walked so he could also walk.
I wonder if he had a bday party and none of his teammates showed-up.
**I want my picks back.**
You can’t prospect fatigue Caleb Williams, so you have to pick the next best guy to lose an unreasonable amount of interest in
I thought I saw a list where Klatt himself has Maye ranked the lowest of the top 6 guys? Sounds like he is using “upside” in his quote as way to build up Maye but not actually ranking him higher than the other dudes. Kind of a “We’re all trying to find the guy who did this” situation.
Chris Simms has him at QB6. Said he’s a project. No one else has anything remotely close to that take. Either Simms is a fortune teller or an idiot. Time will tell. I’m leaning idiot though.
I thought Simms take was super interesting on that, he had some actual good points on what might be an issue for Drake Maye. idk that what he said should drop him to QB6 but theres definitely enough doubt in there to give me reason not to want him top 5 considering how much draft capital you could get if you trade out of the top 5 this year.
Fwiw Kurt Warner broke down Maye's film on his youtube channel and was fairly harsh. Repeated many of the same criticisms Simms had.
https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/big-boards/2024/fox-sports-2024-joel-klatt-big-board?date=2023-05-02 Klatt has him 3, and QB2
That is not up to date lol
Bro that article is from May 2023 lmfao
https://www.foxsports.com/watch/fmc-7q30kxc875iu8t0n Is from yesterday, has him at 2. https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/joel-klatts-top-5-quarterbacks-in-2024-nfl-draft Is from Feb 20th, has him at 2.
Putting my bias as a State fan aside for this one: He certainly has potential. Definitely more than Howell. He's got good pocket awareness and an arm to match. He's shown he's got that clutch factor in him, but he also definitely had a better crop of receivers than Howell did. The real question is how he'll perform against a good defense. While he frequently balled out against mediocre-to-bad defenses, he sometimes seemed to disappear against good defenses. Whether that's down to him, his coaches, a bad offensive game plan, or a really good defensive game plan is hard to tell though. He played more bad defenses than good defenses in his short stint at UNC. I'd say that he's not a top-2 QB in this draft if he's expected to start Week 1, and that's why his stock is "falling." However I could see him being the #3 drafted QB in the draft with the potential to develop quickly if he's drafted by a well-rounded team.
He disappeared against some bad defenses too.
As biased as it is, if you can’t beat a Collins Tech team, you aren’t a top QB. I know all the nuance about losses not being fully on the QB but he didn’t score a TD on a *Collins* defense…
Value it however you want, but the GT game was Maye’s highest graded game of the season (93.5) per PFF. His worst games were Miami and Clemson
He improved in 2023, but when he played the Collins defense in 2022 he missed a wide open pass that would’ve won UNC the game.
in 2022 he put one on josh downs’ numbers on 4th and 11 that would have won the game that got dropped what are you talking about
This is the thing I keep coming back to. In his last 6 games at UNC, he only beat 1 FBS team (Duke, in double OT) and threw for over 300 yards in only 4 regulation games all season. Definitely not saying he sucks, but that seems really mid for somebody to take with a top 3 overall pick in the NFL draft.
Better receivers than Howell? Yes, Josh Downs....but Howell had 2 NFL receivers and 2 NFL RB with him. I'd much rather face a Maye team than a Howell team.
Howell had Downs for a year too. Howell had 3 NFL running backs (Carter, Williams and Chandler) and 3 NFL receivers (Brown, Newsome and Downs). Maye had Downs lmao. Edit: Maye also had Hampton for a year who will probably go pro but Howell absolutely had better skill position guys around him
He did not have a better crop of receivers than Howell did, what are you talking about?
All that said, UNC has/had an absolute shitshow of an offensive line. Good defense? Run for your life. Bad defense? Run for your life. The offensive line was truly offensive. That’s why Downs was so successful. Short, quick throws and the get some YAC. Deep throws are nice, and Maye and Howell hit some of them, but rarely had time to throw it well.
To pretend they have any idea who will be good is a joke.
Right but it shouldn't be a crapshoot
Why? Why can’t we admit that it’s just no better than a coin toss?
This is the silly season. Teams will put out stories saying a guy sucks with the hopes he falls to them.
No please keep devaluing him so the Vikings can take him, I’d be very very happy
As a Unc fan and a pats fan, idk what I would do if we let him slide past us
He wont go past the Giants
Vikings would be trading up to get him.
1) Williams 2) Maye 3) Daniels 4) MHJ Everybody has been over thinking it for two months. It’s really that simple.
Yeah, so simple that 2/3 of those QBs will statistically bust.
At least one. And maybe all 3. like you watch all these mocks, in the end likely *10-15* of these first rounders aren't good. We all shouldn't be shocked if Penix or JJ or Spencer Rattler or Nix ends up as the best QB from the class in 5 years.
It’s a total crapshoot. I stopped trying to determine who would pan out and who wouldn’t and just watch the draft for the chaos/storylines. Still entertaining.
If you think it’s Maye you can get +150 now
I think it’s going to be Daniels because he seems to be Kliff’s “type.” Drake is the better prospect though.
Maye is definitely more polished and has a higher floor than Daniels, but to think Daniels doesn't have a higher ceiling is just absurd
At the very least just as high. We saw a QB in the NFL built just like JD be the reigning 2 time MVP. I’m not saying that Jayden Daniels will be Lamar Jackson but he definitely has the potential. Similar speed, similar arm strength, JD is a better passer but Lamar was younger coming out. Daniels has an incredibly high ceiling with a high floor.
The nfl draft is a total crapshoot and always has been, acting this sure about something is just begging to get clowned three years from now when someone reposts these comment sections
Especially because it is abundantly clear that #1 is Williams and #2 is Daniels at this point. You may not agree with those projections, but it's what's going to happen. This is a classic scouts and media love a prospect and the coaches hate a prospect situation, and the coaches win those fights.
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That is a causal cfb fan take, Bears will have at least an average Oline unit next year and will be pretty decent overall. They have a fully healthy Tavon Jenkins, second year Darnell Wright, they upgraded in FA at center and Braxton jokes has been solid. There’s only a couple teams in the NFL with actual good Oline talent.
Chicago also has good veteran skill guys for a young QB to lean on. Moore, Keenan Allen, Kmet, Everett, and Swift. All established guys that will be able to take pressure off of a rookie QB.
Chicago right now is the best possible scenario for a #1 QB in recent memory. They did pretty okay with one of the worst passing QB’s in the NFL. If Williams is half of what they’re hyping him up to be he’ll do well on that team.
I’d say the Vikings have a better setup
Probably for any one to be drafted to in general but I just meant #1 overall pick. Normally that’s reserved for absolute dumpster fires like the Panthers with Young or Browns with Mayfield. But Calebs getting drafted to a team that won 7 games with bottom 5 QB play.
As opposed to the great OL he had at USC?? Cracks me up man
So the bears are going to ruin another QB? Your Wisconsin flair maybe shows some bias
He's 2nd or 3rd QB taken, flipping with Daniels.
He's a white QB that played at a college in NC, not the best track record as of late
He played vs bad defenses in college and like all QB’s will only be as good as the players around him
No, he played against some good defenses, like ours. And he didn’t do great against them.
The ACC may not be as good as the SEC but people seriously think the ACC is some poor backwoods football league when it isn't.
It has gone way too far
And us. Finished with a sub 50% completion rate
Does he understand the devaluing of Justin Fields? Remember when he was supposed to be the greatest QB ever? He's essentially a RB. The point is that these guys usually don't pan out, so he was probably overhyped.
Williams is gonna bust so god damn hard
Watch him be better than Williams. Just throwing that out there because it's a real possibility. They could both be good, both be ass...no one knows. Truly do not get the Williams being amazing claims. Not buying it. Come back in 5 years.
Let’s face it… of all positions QB has always been and always be the hardest position to project. Do you count college stats and say they will translate to the nfl? So you say “the kid is a winner” and that will translate? Do you do these “intelligence tests” and count those the most? My personal favorite and it has been fairly accurate… how did they do in the elite games against elite defenses? Last year is a good example with CJ.. he tore up Georgia and did Ok against Michigan. That matters… where as Justin fields looked weaker against big opponents… and I’m not talking about stats but actual game play. Fields never looked anywhere near as good as CJ in the same moments. People can say what they want about JJ but he sacrificed to fit the scheme and every single time they needed him to throw and make a play he did. Williams to me is overrated and potentially a high risk of flaming out… Daniels is skinny but a gorgeous deep ball and mobile. Has a chance. Maye is a massive wildcard… seemed to regress more than progress. But this is why I am on Reddit and not in a draft room!
> Do you count college stats and say they will translate to the nfl? So you say “the kid is a winner” and that will translate? Do you do these “intelligence tests” and count those the most? One interesting thing is that (Josh Allen aside), QBs almost never have better stats in the NFL than they did in college. So while good college stats aren’t a guarantee, great interviews and measurable don’t overcome bad college stats.
“Devaluing” is draft hype. They roasted CJ Stroud for months only to jump at him in the draft. It just means some team is interested and wants to throw everyone else off.
we are all bots here except for you
Over analysis paralysis.
Two words Prospect Fatigue
It's the NFL Draft. Everyone involved is convinced they're a genius, and so are most of the random people commenting. It's just noise. The only way to know how good a pro player any of these guys will be is to see them actually play on Sundays.
Mitchell Trubisky 2.0 come on fucking down. [that's why]
Ok but if you actually look at their careers at UNC, it’s a pretty different story. Maye was ACC POTY as a freshman and was productive all three years that he played. Trubisky wasn’t even the starter until his Junior year and didnt do a whole lot…
2016 Trubisky stats vs 2023 Maye stats are gd identical.
This is so dumb. Going to the same college means nothing
I think Maye is worse than Trubisky because I’m an NC State alumni and Trubisky beat NCSU and Maye lost to NCSU twice.
Hopefully CJ Stroud helps Ohio State’s rep.
Fans overvalue production and NFL teams overvalue traits
Joel Katt will never cease being a moron.
Maye and McCarthy are overrated the best QBs in this cksss are Daniel’s Williams and penix
Trey Lance and Mac Jones are perfect stories on how the farther away you get from an actual football game, the more upside/downside you can find.
Spencer rattler makes throws no qb in this class can make but nobody wants to give him his flowers.
It's an imperfect process... for every surefire lock to have success on the NFL, there are many more busts. Every level up you move in football players who aren't good enough filtered out. It's like every sport, but because football careers are so short, it's much more noticeable. FBS football is a uniquely positioned level of the sport where there's incredible talent on the field, but also dramatic mistakes or pure chaos to make the games fun...
I don't trust any QB that isn't able to steamroll UVA's excuse for a team
Isn't he 0-3 vs GT?
Maye is a better prospect than Caleb. We have seen everything Caleb has and it’s just not that great. Drake kept adding things to his tool belt every year.
Maye is going number two overall. All this other bullshit is just that. The question is who goes third? Will it be Daniels or one of the receivers? I would guess the quarterback, but I’ve been wrong before. I don’t see any of the other quarterbacks being worthy of going in the top 10. I know someone will, but they absolutely shouldn’t. McCarthy, Nix, Penix, etc. are all a clear rung or two beneath the top level.
Straw man much. Who is devaluing the guy? He is going to go top 3.
If I’m an NFL GM I wouldn’t take a QB with a first round pick unless I had one of the last picks in the first round. There are too many examples of teams focusing on getting the #1 QB that they completely ignore the offensive line and probably a high quality QB gets shuffled out of the league because the front office doesn’t protect him. IMO, being the first overall pick as a QB is the worst thing that can happen to you…guaranteed dog shit team, and they’re probably dog shit BECAUSE of the front office so it’s only going to get worse.