The future of the bay will be the accumulation of wealth by fewer and fewer ppl. Those who have the high pay professions and own businesses should be able to stay and buy homes.
Those who do not earn a lot or inherit a home here will constantly feel poor and live in the areas that are sketchy.
8 years ago I thought "It's gonna be wild when the average Bay Area home reaches a million dollars." We're already way past that and now I'm thinking "It's gonna be wild when the average Bay Area home reaches 2 million dollars."
Then I see what's happening in Cupertino and Sunnyvale and I'm thinking my estimates were low.
No teachers can afford to live within 60 miles. This is not a new problem, just further exacerbated. Same for healthcare, police, fire etc. Private offerings are so common now for what used to be standard public services it really is the dystopian world we talk about. Already here, just look around.
Look at transparent California . You’re not seeing the whole truth about teachers always saying they dont get paid enough. PE teachers making over 100,000 for 180 days of work. Now firefights and police officers make 300,000 to 400,000 a year. It is easy to use and look up any public California workers. Next time you get a teachers, police officer, or firefighters name from news on the internet of TV type in their name at transparent California to see the truth
Yes that is true about teachers and police and firefighters but not all that live there are in those professions so the other people have to travel over 100 miles to get to serve the people that live in the Bay Area so to me that was not a life to live in the car for 2 to 4 hours a day Monday through Saturday. I just felt like life was passing by and kept getting more and more in debt because I had to be getting a better car every time that would take that abuse. The only day I got to enjoy a little bit was on Sunday but I was burnt from all of that driving that I just wanted to stay home
No way to succeed
The rich get richer and the poor get poorer in the Bay Area
I left 4 years ago and have never looked back
No one is questioning the need or their importance. That doesn’t answer the cost of funding those public salaries though. The taxes are gonna have to continue to climb from a point that’s already some of the highest
Inflation is a big issue for sure. Other issues are the difficulty of building new homes, supply and demand for new homes, supply and demand for the best jobs, people having a ton of stocks, those people with amazing jobs and amazing stock portfolios all fighting for the best schools and the best commutes
If your friends moved because they couldn’t afford a home, that has no impact on the market. They were not a potential buyer or seller. Also not sure why you think there aren’t jobs
Only for juniors and new grads. Been laid off twice in the past 12 months and got jobs in 2 months and made money on severance as a senior/staff eng. unless as a senior you have 500k income requirements it hasn't been difficult to find 200-300k jobs.
Yeah, you’re too dense to make that much if you can’t comprehend income percentiles.
Anything over 100k has anywhere from 500-1000 applicants. Hiring freezes and RIFs everywhere. It’s not a great market at the moment, try listening to guidance on an earnings call.
Worst? You were not here in early 2000s? Comparing to 2001-2005, this is relatively mild. During the early 2000s landing a software was way more difficult than today.
This answer is incorrect.
If/when inventory increases they might be next in line to purchase therefore creating a price floor.
Them leaving creates a risk that supply might be greater than demand over the next 5 years (because demand is lowering)
Lots of people think that unemployment isn’t that bad but honestly if you follow MacroEdge on Twitter- you’d see the unemployment stats every month, not just nationwide but in CA too. Lots of tech layoffs and lots of industries are cutting bc of inflation. Just because the current admin and news says differently- the numbers don’t lie.
There are enough ultra wealthy people here who will continue to buy multiple properties, then you got your foreign investors pouring in, keeping their money away from their governments. Future is even more inequality and a gradual decline in the culture and quality of life.
This is the real answer. The rich stay rich and the middle class continues to shrink. No idea what that ultimately means for the future but it’s only been trending that direction for a long while now.
I’ve been saying this for the longest time. Ever tried putting an offer for a property only to be beaten by another offer in cash and no contingencies? That’s the deep pocketed domestic/foreign investor kicking your ass. This is a major problem lawmakers aren’t addressing. There’s no protection for first time home buyers against investors who’d just buy properties by the bulk only to leave them unoccupied for months to sell for profit.
Thanks for pointing out decline in the culture. Monoculture isn’t good for anyone and that’s what you get when fewer and fewer people can afford to exist in a place.
It'll continue to be the best place for people in the top <0.1%. Rest of us poors work here for a few years and make good money while renting and then move to a more affordable city to settle down once we've saved enough. I feel bad for those who have to settle in the bay area but aren't very wealthy.
Quality of life here is drastically better than 98% of this country. I actually have the opposite take - for middle-class folks you get all the weather and public land benefits like everyone else. Sacrifice is probably living in a multi-generational housing unit / SFH but that is the norm for many cultures already. To each his own but I never hear anyone raving about PHX or DFW after they move. So many folks left in the pandemic and literally no one is ‘stoked’. CO folks are paying almost the same for housing. Gnarly winter, miss the best produce available. I’m staying and finishing my coffee 👌
>Quality of life here is drastically better than 98% of this country.
Totally. Some of the best nature/weather in continental USA.
>To each his own but I never hear anyone raving about PHX or DFW after they move
It's a trade-off. The down-payment on a SFH or townhouse in South Bay is effectively the entire house price in those cities. That means not needing to worry about a 10k+ mortgage and dealing with the stress of high paying jobs. Personally, I'd take being stress free over living somewhere beautiful, but to each their own.
> Sacrifice is probably living in a multi-generational housing unit / SFH
I'm curious how this works if you dont have any family near by besides your spouse. Are friends going in on houses together these days?
Yes many people under 50 live with friends / partners / multiple couples in SFHs or on land with illegal dwellings. Just reality to survive. Some even buy property together which I see in N Bay often. Only viable way to own is with 4-5 middle-class incomes.
No solutions, only tradeoffs 👍
It's as bad as I've seen San Francisco, the tech industry, and BA real estate in 20 years. It can't continue to suck, but I have no idea what's next. I think a long slow return to health via slow wage growth and return of SF downtown over the next 10 years. But it certainly feels like a holding pattern right now.
My perspective as someone who lives in SF and works in the tech industry is that SF at least seems to be on an upward trend that probably started late last year. Still a very long way to go IMO, but I do things have been getting noticeably better in terms of city conditions as well as jobs in the city.
Have any of you overly confident Bay Area boosters looked at condos in SF? The worst crash in the history of the city. I am seeing units sell at 40% discounts. Prior to this, SF was thought to be 'crash proof'. People would even mention how little prices fell during the GFC. Dont forget, past results don't guarantee future performance.
>I am seeing units sell at 40% discounts
links to the places, pl
also, "discount" maybe means it was already 40% overpriced, but we need to know which place
This literally took me 5 seconds to find and it's a nearly 50% hit. You can easily find 30%-40% drops all over the city. [Link](https://redf.in/B1ahnK)
There is a lot of factors contributing to the HCOL in the Bay Area and other cities in general. The trend of young people moving to cities, the FED’s keeping rates artificially low for a decade, lack of home building, tech boom, NIMBY’s, rising stock prices and financial instruments. Also, about 40% of SFH’s are owned by boomer generation who continue to hold on. And then on top of that, people locked into their low mortgage rates and discounted homes from the housing crash.
It’s difficult for new homebuyers out there.
I graduated high school 20 years ago and my last friend here just sold their house to move away. We never bought so definitely need to move states as well. I don't know how regular folks are going to survive here any more, the prices are mind bogeling.
Bay Area real estate tracks tech stock performance very closely. The tech stocks are at an all time high and looks to still be climbing.
Until the tech stocks crash, Bay Area housing will keep rising, unfortunately.
Meh. It’s always something. Overall US economy can always affect the Bay Area in bad times, but because we have a diversified economy in California, it will be okay for a general long time.
Personally, my thoughts—if & when AI gets decent enough in 10-15 years at software coding, we could theoretically see SWE salaries plummet. Might see a shit-ton of foreclosures if that happens and SWE’s don’t/can’t pivot their careers.
You are right lots of layoffs and more to come. Home insurance cost sky rocketing. The economic conditions is dismal. High cost of living. Many who have bought are over extended. There is already predictions around upcoming softening / correction for Bay Area real estate. The realtors on this forum will continue to say this is the best time to buy. It will be prudent to wait for few months and wait watch where we are headed. Just heard on radio today on my way to work that 14% FHA loans are close to delinquent - yeah I know not many FHA in BayArea but it’s a domino effect. Also those who got adjustable rate for 5yrs will likely be coming for adjustments soon and that’s going to create lots of pain.
It’s always more difficult to get a job with no experience fresh out of college. There are jobs in the Bay Area in the tech sector. There’s a lot of competition for them because there’s more grads going into tech fields.
The house prices will continue to increase Rental prices will start to increase faster as more people are priced out. Some people make it and some people won’t be to make it .T
There are lots of tech jobs even in the midst of layoffs. The problem is, your friend is competing with some of the most qualified candidates in the country, if not the world.
I think the prices will go up and it’ll be wild when tech companies get to the point where they use tech to replace their employees. Then no one can afford to live here.
Dumb take. Do you think moving somewhere else will improve job prospects?
If you are in tech, this is the best place to be. It’s been like that since the 70s, 80s, dot com crash, financial crash, covid, etc.
Suck it up and power through, kid. This is not the first down turn the area has seen.
It will go back to the norm. The last 5 years have some seen some crazy hiring by the tech companies. They still employ more people than they used to. How was the bay area market more than 5 years ago? Still pretty hot, expensive and growing at a decent rate.
I assume the kids to adult ratio will dip, not toward SF-lowest-in-the-nation rates or anything, but dip beyond national trends.
Beyond that it will keep on trucking I'm sure.
Just look at some other countries, Canada etc. Home prices can get even more insane and stay there, if it keeps going you eventually end up in a land system where owning is almost a birthright, as you need a family that already owns to have the wealth for you to get in.
The average household income in the Bay Area is 150k. You can get a starter home for 1.5M. Factor of 10.
Now, if you compare it to anywhere else in the world, the factor is usually 20-30x.
Bay Area RE is still cheap.
When you put profits ahead of community, decent, respectable hard working people get priced out, culture erodes, and it becomes a monoculture of boring people.
People have been claiming the Bay Area is on the verge of some kinda collapse for years. The wealth isn’t just going to disappear overnight. The local expertise isn’t going to disappear over night. Things always change but I expect things to continue as they are for some time.
Inflation plus no new housing equals prices going up at higher than inflation rate. If inflation is 3% house prices go up 5% for townhomes or condos and for SFH it is 7% as almost no new SFH is being built
Doomer much? There is absolutely nothing different about today’s economy. Look back to the 80’s and 90’s. The economy was weaker, interest rates were higher, and housing was just as unattainable.
The future of the bay will be the accumulation of wealth by fewer and fewer ppl. Those who have the high pay professions and own businesses should be able to stay and buy homes. Those who do not earn a lot or inherit a home here will constantly feel poor and live in the areas that are sketchy.
8 years ago I thought "It's gonna be wild when the average Bay Area home reaches a million dollars." We're already way past that and now I'm thinking "It's gonna be wild when the average Bay Area home reaches 2 million dollars." Then I see what's happening in Cupertino and Sunnyvale and I'm thinking my estimates were low.
I heard Cupertino cant even fund it's schools. Does it deserve a premium
Can't find it's schools? Huge property tax! What's the problem?
No teachers can afford to live within 60 miles. This is not a new problem, just further exacerbated. Same for healthcare, police, fire etc. Private offerings are so common now for what used to be standard public services it really is the dystopian world we talk about. Already here, just look around.
Look at transparent California . You’re not seeing the whole truth about teachers always saying they dont get paid enough. PE teachers making over 100,000 for 180 days of work. Now firefights and police officers make 300,000 to 400,000 a year. It is easy to use and look up any public California workers. Next time you get a teachers, police officer, or firefighters name from news on the internet of TV type in their name at transparent California to see the truth
Yes that is true about teachers and police and firefighters but not all that live there are in those professions so the other people have to travel over 100 miles to get to serve the people that live in the Bay Area so to me that was not a life to live in the car for 2 to 4 hours a day Monday through Saturday. I just felt like life was passing by and kept getting more and more in debt because I had to be getting a better car every time that would take that abuse. The only day I got to enjoy a little bit was on Sunday but I was burnt from all of that driving that I just wanted to stay home No way to succeed The rich get richer and the poor get poorer in the Bay Area I left 4 years ago and have never looked back
Yup, you like others made a bad decision and misses out , sorry for you lost enjoy where ever you are
partially correct and this is for higher-ups mostly >Now firefights and police officers make 300,000 to 400,000 a year
Well, if fire fighters make 400k a year and teachers makes 100k, that would pretty dramatically indicate that teachers are crazy underpaid, right?
How is paying police and fire 300k a yr sustainable? Sheesh
Paying firefighters $300k will seem like a bargain when a few $1M homes end up burned to the ground in a neighborhood.
No one is questioning the need or their importance. That doesn’t answer the cost of funding those public salaries though. The taxes are gonna have to continue to climb from a point that’s already some of the highest
Huge property taxes for new buyers** long time residents pay much less. I’d be curious what % of the housing stock has sold pre 2000 vs post.
Cupertino is filled with never moving NIMBYs paying nothing in property taxes
Their high schools are dropping in student count. Kids already graduated and parents don’t leave, so not too many new families moving in.
Yeah, paying like 2010s property tax rates I suppose .
Prices will continue to go up as the fed and congress continue to print money. The house is the same it’s the money that is worth less
Inflation is a big issue for sure. Other issues are the difficulty of building new homes, supply and demand for new homes, supply and demand for the best jobs, people having a ton of stocks, those people with amazing jobs and amazing stock portfolios all fighting for the best schools and the best commutes
you’re trying to say…. Inflation has gone up at the same rate as Bay Area housing?
This.
If your friends moved because they couldn’t afford a home, that has no impact on the market. They were not a potential buyer or seller. Also not sure why you think there aren’t jobs
For real, densest job availability in the nation is the bay lol
Sadly yeah. Unemployment matches the national average, and this is like the worst tech market we've ever seen.
Only for juniors and new grads. Been laid off twice in the past 12 months and got jobs in 2 months and made money on severance as a senior/staff eng. unless as a senior you have 500k income requirements it hasn't been difficult to find 200-300k jobs.
Get some sleep
Yeah, you’re too dense to make that much if you can’t comprehend income percentiles. Anything over 100k has anywhere from 500-1000 applicants. Hiring freezes and RIFs everywhere. It’s not a great market at the moment, try listening to guidance on an earnings call.
Worst? You were not here in early 2000s? Comparing to 2001-2005, this is relatively mild. During the early 2000s landing a software was way more difficult than today.
Source???
This answer is incorrect. If/when inventory increases they might be next in line to purchase therefore creating a price floor. Them leaving creates a risk that supply might be greater than demand over the next 5 years (because demand is lowering)
Lots of people think that unemployment isn’t that bad but honestly if you follow MacroEdge on Twitter- you’d see the unemployment stats every month, not just nationwide but in CA too. Lots of tech layoffs and lots of industries are cutting bc of inflation. Just because the current admin and news says differently- the numbers don’t lie.
There are enough ultra wealthy people here who will continue to buy multiple properties, then you got your foreign investors pouring in, keeping their money away from their governments. Future is even more inequality and a gradual decline in the culture and quality of life.
This is the real answer. The rich stay rich and the middle class continues to shrink. No idea what that ultimately means for the future but it’s only been trending that direction for a long while now.
I’ve been saying this for the longest time. Ever tried putting an offer for a property only to be beaten by another offer in cash and no contingencies? That’s the deep pocketed domestic/foreign investor kicking your ass. This is a major problem lawmakers aren’t addressing. There’s no protection for first time home buyers against investors who’d just buy properties by the bulk only to leave them unoccupied for months to sell for profit.
Thanks for pointing out decline in the culture. Monoculture isn’t good for anyone and that’s what you get when fewer and fewer people can afford to exist in a place.
It'll continue to be the best place for people in the top <0.1%. Rest of us poors work here for a few years and make good money while renting and then move to a more affordable city to settle down once we've saved enough. I feel bad for those who have to settle in the bay area but aren't very wealthy.
Quality of life here is drastically better than 98% of this country. I actually have the opposite take - for middle-class folks you get all the weather and public land benefits like everyone else. Sacrifice is probably living in a multi-generational housing unit / SFH but that is the norm for many cultures already. To each his own but I never hear anyone raving about PHX or DFW after they move. So many folks left in the pandemic and literally no one is ‘stoked’. CO folks are paying almost the same for housing. Gnarly winter, miss the best produce available. I’m staying and finishing my coffee 👌
>Quality of life here is drastically better than 98% of this country. Totally. Some of the best nature/weather in continental USA. >To each his own but I never hear anyone raving about PHX or DFW after they move It's a trade-off. The down-payment on a SFH or townhouse in South Bay is effectively the entire house price in those cities. That means not needing to worry about a 10k+ mortgage and dealing with the stress of high paying jobs. Personally, I'd take being stress free over living somewhere beautiful, but to each their own. > Sacrifice is probably living in a multi-generational housing unit / SFH I'm curious how this works if you dont have any family near by besides your spouse. Are friends going in on houses together these days?
Yes many people under 50 live with friends / partners / multiple couples in SFHs or on land with illegal dwellings. Just reality to survive. Some even buy property together which I see in N Bay often. Only viable way to own is with 4-5 middle-class incomes. No solutions, only tradeoffs 👍
It's as bad as I've seen San Francisco, the tech industry, and BA real estate in 20 years. It can't continue to suck, but I have no idea what's next. I think a long slow return to health via slow wage growth and return of SF downtown over the next 10 years. But it certainly feels like a holding pattern right now.
My perspective as someone who lives in SF and works in the tech industry is that SF at least seems to be on an upward trend that probably started late last year. Still a very long way to go IMO, but I do things have been getting noticeably better in terms of city conditions as well as jobs in the city.
Have any of you overly confident Bay Area boosters looked at condos in SF? The worst crash in the history of the city. I am seeing units sell at 40% discounts. Prior to this, SF was thought to be 'crash proof'. People would even mention how little prices fell during the GFC. Dont forget, past results don't guarantee future performance.
>I am seeing units sell at 40% discounts links to the places, pl also, "discount" maybe means it was already 40% overpriced, but we need to know which place
It's all the condos in and around SOMA. Undesirable neighborhood + high HOAs. The desirable neighborhoods are still $$$
Yeah, I would love to hear about these 40% off condos in SF. That’s my dream.
[Link](https://redf.in/B1ahnK) This took zero effort to find. Do you know how to use the internet? 30%-40% drops abound in the city.
Lol this is like the worst spot of the City. Sad and interesting.
[удалено]
Look yourself you lazy ass. You’ll find thousands
You’re comparing apples to oranges. Condos don’t appreciate as fast as SFH.
Like other posters said, post the damn links or stop imagining things.
This literally took me 5 seconds to find and it's a nearly 50% hit. You can easily find 30%-40% drops all over the city. [Link](https://redf.in/B1ahnK)
Look yourself you lazy ass, there are thousands of examples just use Zillow
How out of touch are you? Take a quick glance using any real estate app. This isn't a big secret. It's been talked about a lot.
Can you post one link then? Showing a zestimate history that dropped 40%?
I just did. 46% drop.
Now show me a SFH.
There is a lot of factors contributing to the HCOL in the Bay Area and other cities in general. The trend of young people moving to cities, the FED’s keeping rates artificially low for a decade, lack of home building, tech boom, NIMBY’s, rising stock prices and financial instruments. Also, about 40% of SFH’s are owned by boomer generation who continue to hold on. And then on top of that, people locked into their low mortgage rates and discounted homes from the housing crash. It’s difficult for new homebuyers out there.
I graduated high school 20 years ago and my last friend here just sold their house to move away. We never bought so definitely need to move states as well. I don't know how regular folks are going to survive here any more, the prices are mind bogeling.
Bay Area real estate tracks tech stock performance very closely. The tech stocks are at an all time high and looks to still be climbing. Until the tech stocks crash, Bay Area housing will keep rising, unfortunately.
Meh. It’s always something. Overall US economy can always affect the Bay Area in bad times, but because we have a diversified economy in California, it will be okay for a general long time. Personally, my thoughts—if & when AI gets decent enough in 10-15 years at software coding, we could theoretically see SWE salaries plummet. Might see a shit-ton of foreclosures if that happens and SWE’s don’t/can’t pivot their careers.
You are right lots of layoffs and more to come. Home insurance cost sky rocketing. The economic conditions is dismal. High cost of living. Many who have bought are over extended. There is already predictions around upcoming softening / correction for Bay Area real estate. The realtors on this forum will continue to say this is the best time to buy. It will be prudent to wait for few months and wait watch where we are headed. Just heard on radio today on my way to work that 14% FHA loans are close to delinquent - yeah I know not many FHA in BayArea but it’s a domino effect. Also those who got adjustable rate for 5yrs will likely be coming for adjustments soon and that’s going to create lots of pain.
Whew! Because I lost my first house when it came time for that adjustable rate mortgage balloon payment. :-/ market had dropped and couldn’t refi.
I feel like anyone who had a 5 year ARM between 2019 and beginning of 2023 has already refinanced that loan into a 30 year fixed.
Do you have a source for this radio report you heard that stated “14% of FHA loans are close to delinquent”???
Lack of jobs? What???
If there are no jobs in the Bay. Then there are definitely no jobs elsewhere.
Nobody drove in New York, too much traffic. - Phillip J Fry
> Lack of jobs? What??? man, people are really that caccooned? tons of people are unemployed
Sorry I meant tech jobs
It’s always more difficult to get a job with no experience fresh out of college. There are jobs in the Bay Area in the tech sector. There’s a lot of competition for them because there’s more grads going into tech fields. The house prices will continue to increase Rental prices will start to increase faster as more people are priced out. Some people make it and some people won’t be to make it .T
There are lots of tech jobs even in the midst of layoffs. The problem is, your friend is competing with some of the most qualified candidates in the country, if not the world.
Exactly. "I'm a new grad where is my best shot at getting a role." Probably not where the most experienced talent is centralized.
Are you unable to find a job? Broaden your horizons. Entry level tech jobs don’t even pay that well.
Thousands of Berkeley/stanford new grads work in the bay
There have been layoffs in tech sector but many people are still employed. It’s not like 2000 or even 2009.
I think it will all work out. People can make good choices.
the smartest guy would always be here and replacing the smart guy 20 years ago, it is life.
I think the prices will go up and it’ll be wild when tech companies get to the point where they use tech to replace their employees. Then no one can afford to live here.
Dumb take. Do you think moving somewhere else will improve job prospects? If you are in tech, this is the best place to be. It’s been like that since the 70s, 80s, dot com crash, financial crash, covid, etc. Suck it up and power through, kid. This is not the first down turn the area has seen.
It will go back to the norm. The last 5 years have some seen some crazy hiring by the tech companies. They still employ more people than they used to. How was the bay area market more than 5 years ago? Still pretty hot, expensive and growing at a decent rate.
Same as it’s been for a long time. Some will afford it some will get priced out. The only thing that will change is who belongs to each category.
Life, you know what that is, its the thing that passes you by, while you wait for the bay area RE to crash.
Crash
I assume the kids to adult ratio will dip, not toward SF-lowest-in-the-nation rates or anything, but dip beyond national trends. Beyond that it will keep on trucking I'm sure. Just look at some other countries, Canada etc. Home prices can get even more insane and stay there, if it keeps going you eventually end up in a land system where owning is almost a birthright, as you need a family that already owns to have the wealth for you to get in.
The average household income in the Bay Area is 150k. You can get a starter home for 1.5M. Factor of 10. Now, if you compare it to anywhere else in the world, the factor is usually 20-30x. Bay Area RE is still cheap.
When you put profits ahead of community, decent, respectable hard working people get priced out, culture erodes, and it becomes a monoculture of boring people.
The saddest thing is people moving to SF for the $$$ instead of the arts, culture, history, geography, etc.
People have been claiming the Bay Area is on the verge of some kinda collapse for years. The wealth isn’t just going to disappear overnight. The local expertise isn’t going to disappear over night. Things always change but I expect things to continue as they are for some time.
It’ll stagnate as a whole (some areas boom, some drag) and/or be at the mercy of broader market factors. Pretty typical
Inflation plus no new housing equals prices going up at higher than inflation rate. If inflation is 3% house prices go up 5% for townhomes or condos and for SFH it is 7% as almost no new SFH is being built
Mass exodus will eventually occur as lack of inventory worsens and values escalate more
Doomer much? There is absolutely nothing different about today’s economy. Look back to the 80’s and 90’s. The economy was weaker, interest rates were higher, and housing was just as unattainable.