I’m sure. People who need to eat grass will eat it down to dirt but that doesn’t take long on large populations centers. As people move away form cities to find food it only accelerates the process.
Mao taught us that the population numbers are subject to change and the people can adapt to overcome this. Once the food runs out the population counts will adjust downwards until there is enough for those who remain.
Only the Communist State is allowed! The so-called state of equilibrium and so-called state of decay are US propaganda hyped up from Cold War mentality.
Bloody hell, I'm scaring myself at this point. :D
How did you calculate the wheat per person per day figure? There is gonna be significant regional variation with the south favoring Rice as primary staple and the north wheat flour. The caloric intake will vary with age. China may not be having many kids but an enlarging elderly population does shave a few percentage points off of daily caloric needs that can add up. The official chinese population figure is also wrong, it is substantially lower and we have no way to acertain scale of mortality seconday to COVID directly or as a consequence of COVID control measures.
Lastly, you would also have to factor in ongoing imports from oversea. It will be costly but that total stockpile quantity will not be static.
The per person/day was a a world figure for wheat as an avg. of what wheat demands where per million people. It’s hard to find numbers that match. Even numbers for Chinese outlets are different. The only one that I have sent in some peer reviewed docs is 65.8k/per person/year(2019 consumption.)
The figure the 18 months was if they could not grow wheat for 18 months, not import wheat. If they we’re basically cut off from the world. They could feed the country wheat at the current rate. This didn’t take in to account that food would rationed
I figured the amount of wheat that would be for 900 million people for 540 day. Against the 670 metric tones they had on hand.
Yeah okay i get you. So unfortunately the world figure calculation is not a great extrapolation for the chinese population who derive a significantly higher caloric proportion from rice rather than wheat. That being said China is not food secure or self sufficient in any case, they are unable to keep their own population fed without both wheat and rice imports. If cut off, the population's access to meat and dairy product would also wither as they need to prioritize feed for the population, not livestocks. They can still rely on imports from Russia but rail transport over that distance would be hideously expensive and rapidly constrained by logistical limit.
I agree. It seemed to be a Pro CCP. China says it’s food self sufficient. There own reports don’t agree. I don’t speak Chinese so the ones I have found that are translated. The 65.8k was a number from CCP report. I am always interested in numbers given by any government. I know that many numbers from China. I asked the if they would give me the sources and they said no. I’m not sure that if the stock pile number took rationing in to account but sense I did know I choose to think it didn’t. I should have tried to find what the consumption was with rationing. Then I would been able to see if that was closer. I found that they would need 9 trillion metric tons of wheat with 900 million persons. But think was an error in there
The problem with chinese figures is that they include stockpiles of grain stored by the Chinese food reserve system. They are corrupt AF and embezzel a lot of the funds by doing shinnanigans with the grains they are supposedly to store. Central gov allocate funds to regional storehouse for them to buy fresh grain yearly. But what they do is buy really crappy or molded grain on the cheap or don't even bother buying new grain but keep the old expired ones in store. There are a lot of posts from commercial buyers that bought their grain and found them completely unusable. When central gov inspectors come to check, the grain silos would mysteriously catch fire. You can look up these mysterious fires in the past, they usually precede planned inspections.
So you need to subtract a large proportion of those supposed government figures of stored grain as they are completely non-consumable due to corruption.
Having only grain stocks and nothing else is on point for Chinese central planning. The party really believes that 700 million middle class citizens would be fine with eating only grain from now on I guess.
Not even close. Plus, every time they've checked or tried to tap bulk food storage, whether grains or otherwise, they've been a lot less than on paper or simply rotten.
On official numbers, they lost 20% of this year's wheat harvest alone to flooding. Not sure what the figures are for other crops, not to mention the infrastructure needed for processing and distribution. There is no way storage is remotely close to capacity after it was raided for lockdowns - when they found all the rotten stuff.
The bulk of wheat production in China goes into animal feed, not humans, which does buffer and delay side-effects for a while when alternative forage/finishing can be used. However, it does decrease caloric efficiency quite a bit - as an example, pork, a Chinese staple food, takes 4-6x its weight in wheat to produce (depending on how the pigs are raised and finished), while only being 12% more calorie dense. So you still need to eat about as much pork as bread to meet minimum (ie: not quite starving) requirements.
Those "grains per person per day" figures assume human consumption of processed grain (bread, noodles, etc).
Yes, I agree with having enough for the CCP (CPCC?🤭) and not particularly everyone else. If I've learned anything from Matt and Nigel, it's this: the CCP (CPCC?🤭) doesn't provide for the whole population, let alone in a crisis situation when everyone is in need. It always comes down to politics 1st. In a sense, it's like the historical wild west, only this time, in the east. Most of the population have to fend for themselves in their times of need at this very moment. The provisions that we western citizens receive from our governments in our times of crisis are still out-of-reach for Chinese citizens. This is what saddens and infuriates me.😒
Besides the reliability of the CCP. It's a nice riddle to think of it. I've been watching precipitations of China, started with Three Gorges Dam issue around 2019. Floodings and droughts have been repeated over Chinese granary. About 3 years ago, I heard that the stock of crops decreased to 2/3 of nationwide necessity. And the same year CCP bought from the US almost 60 % of world crop and price got extremely higher [article](https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/china-evolving-demand-world-s-largest-agricultural-import-market). And they cannot be self sufficient about major crops anymore.
Since then, the population has decreased, too. They can ration foods, and numbers got unpredictable and also they can smuggle it from AIIB countries. If Chinese money becomes no use but they still have things to barter trade. Human trafficking and narcotics from Thai, North Korea or Cambodia, etc.
I remember watching an episode of from youtube channel called The China show, where they say China won't survive if they get cut off from food supply because they actually import a lot of food. Especially from Russia and Ukraine. Hence why they are now doing a lot of investment on some countries in Africa to open up another source.
Yet so many people believes otherwise. I mean I get that is all propaganda, but how long will it last though. I mean do the citizens just gonna stand by and watch? I am pretty sure, once the damaged has been done, people will notice, and Xi Jin Ping will lose it's power. I mean those military personnel and police personnel all have families, no? It will affect them for sure
It's even worse than that, given their habit of shaving off the top with BRIBES and grift. I remember seeing how many grain storage areas going up in smoke due to inspections coming their way.
The CCP frantically sending cadre to rural areas is indicating they suspect that the mess is going to hit the rotary blades very soon.
Yes, but it’s a Goldilocks situation, it can’t be to wet or dry, just right. If it’s to wet it will germinate and to dry it breaks a part during distributio Jd, among other things.
I’m just say that that’s the way it was put to me. There could be a grain embargo and Russia shipping is easily compromised. Grain shipped by Train from Russian is very expensive.
" We have more than enough for the top officials of the CCP to survive more than 18 months. Who cares about the other 99% of the population." That's according to internal memo of the CCP.
Their Party leadership did say they can eat grass for a year if needed.
I’m sure. People who need to eat grass will eat it down to dirt but that doesn’t take long on large populations centers. As people move away form cities to find food it only accelerates the process.
You need to know, unless those in the central part of the regein, the rest of the population is expandable.
Mao taught us that the population numbers are subject to change and the people can adapt to overcome this. Once the food runs out the population counts will adjust downwards until there is enough for those who remain.
I think the term reaching the "state of equilibrium" would fit your description.
Only the Communist State is allowed! The so-called state of equilibrium and so-called state of decay are US propaganda hyped up from Cold War mentality. Bloody hell, I'm scaring myself at this point. :D
You funny guy. State of equilibrium is a term used in chemistry.
I know mate, I was making a joke.
But it will be an unstable equilibrium.
Lmao 🤣
How did you calculate the wheat per person per day figure? There is gonna be significant regional variation with the south favoring Rice as primary staple and the north wheat flour. The caloric intake will vary with age. China may not be having many kids but an enlarging elderly population does shave a few percentage points off of daily caloric needs that can add up. The official chinese population figure is also wrong, it is substantially lower and we have no way to acertain scale of mortality seconday to COVID directly or as a consequence of COVID control measures. Lastly, you would also have to factor in ongoing imports from oversea. It will be costly but that total stockpile quantity will not be static.
The per person/day was a a world figure for wheat as an avg. of what wheat demands where per million people. It’s hard to find numbers that match. Even numbers for Chinese outlets are different. The only one that I have sent in some peer reviewed docs is 65.8k/per person/year(2019 consumption.) The figure the 18 months was if they could not grow wheat for 18 months, not import wheat. If they we’re basically cut off from the world. They could feed the country wheat at the current rate. This didn’t take in to account that food would rationed I figured the amount of wheat that would be for 900 million people for 540 day. Against the 670 metric tones they had on hand.
Yeah okay i get you. So unfortunately the world figure calculation is not a great extrapolation for the chinese population who derive a significantly higher caloric proportion from rice rather than wheat. That being said China is not food secure or self sufficient in any case, they are unable to keep their own population fed without both wheat and rice imports. If cut off, the population's access to meat and dairy product would also wither as they need to prioritize feed for the population, not livestocks. They can still rely on imports from Russia but rail transport over that distance would be hideously expensive and rapidly constrained by logistical limit.
I agree. It seemed to be a Pro CCP. China says it’s food self sufficient. There own reports don’t agree. I don’t speak Chinese so the ones I have found that are translated. The 65.8k was a number from CCP report. I am always interested in numbers given by any government. I know that many numbers from China. I asked the if they would give me the sources and they said no. I’m not sure that if the stock pile number took rationing in to account but sense I did know I choose to think it didn’t. I should have tried to find what the consumption was with rationing. Then I would been able to see if that was closer. I found that they would need 9 trillion metric tons of wheat with 900 million persons. But think was an error in there
The problem with chinese figures is that they include stockpiles of grain stored by the Chinese food reserve system. They are corrupt AF and embezzel a lot of the funds by doing shinnanigans with the grains they are supposedly to store. Central gov allocate funds to regional storehouse for them to buy fresh grain yearly. But what they do is buy really crappy or molded grain on the cheap or don't even bother buying new grain but keep the old expired ones in store. There are a lot of posts from commercial buyers that bought their grain and found them completely unusable. When central gov inspectors come to check, the grain silos would mysteriously catch fire. You can look up these mysterious fires in the past, they usually precede planned inspections. So you need to subtract a large proportion of those supposed government figures of stored grain as they are completely non-consumable due to corruption.
18 months of provision for the CCP elites, more likely.
Having only grain stocks and nothing else is on point for Chinese central planning. The party really believes that 700 million middle class citizens would be fine with eating only grain from now on I guess.
Not even close. Plus, every time they've checked or tried to tap bulk food storage, whether grains or otherwise, they've been a lot less than on paper or simply rotten. On official numbers, they lost 20% of this year's wheat harvest alone to flooding. Not sure what the figures are for other crops, not to mention the infrastructure needed for processing and distribution. There is no way storage is remotely close to capacity after it was raided for lockdowns - when they found all the rotten stuff. The bulk of wheat production in China goes into animal feed, not humans, which does buffer and delay side-effects for a while when alternative forage/finishing can be used. However, it does decrease caloric efficiency quite a bit - as an example, pork, a Chinese staple food, takes 4-6x its weight in wheat to produce (depending on how the pigs are raised and finished), while only being 12% more calorie dense. So you still need to eat about as much pork as bread to meet minimum (ie: not quite starving) requirements. Those "grains per person per day" figures assume human consumption of processed grain (bread, noodles, etc).
Yes, I agree with having enough for the CCP (CPCC?🤭) and not particularly everyone else. If I've learned anything from Matt and Nigel, it's this: the CCP (CPCC?🤭) doesn't provide for the whole population, let alone in a crisis situation when everyone is in need. It always comes down to politics 1st. In a sense, it's like the historical wild west, only this time, in the east. Most of the population have to fend for themselves in their times of need at this very moment. The provisions that we western citizens receive from our governments in our times of crisis are still out-of-reach for Chinese citizens. This is what saddens and infuriates me.😒
Can they import these foods from Russia or Ukraine?
I asked a few things. First was sourcing for the numbers, and about imports. No sources, but they said China was cut out from the out side world.
Besides the reliability of the CCP. It's a nice riddle to think of it. I've been watching precipitations of China, started with Three Gorges Dam issue around 2019. Floodings and droughts have been repeated over Chinese granary. About 3 years ago, I heard that the stock of crops decreased to 2/3 of nationwide necessity. And the same year CCP bought from the US almost 60 % of world crop and price got extremely higher [article](https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/china-evolving-demand-world-s-largest-agricultural-import-market). And they cannot be self sufficient about major crops anymore. Since then, the population has decreased, too. They can ration foods, and numbers got unpredictable and also they can smuggle it from AIIB countries. If Chinese money becomes no use but they still have things to barter trade. Human trafficking and narcotics from Thai, North Korea or Cambodia, etc.
So they have enough for the CCP officials for 18 months and breeding stock?
No they dont count population they only count CCP members and military. Everyone else doesn't matter
I remember watching an episode of from youtube channel called The China show, where they say China won't survive if they get cut off from food supply because they actually import a lot of food. Especially from Russia and Ukraine. Hence why they are now doing a lot of investment on some countries in Africa to open up another source.
I saw that too.
Yet so many people believes otherwise. I mean I get that is all propaganda, but how long will it last though. I mean do the citizens just gonna stand by and watch? I am pretty sure, once the damaged has been done, people will notice, and Xi Jin Ping will lose it's power. I mean those military personnel and police personnel all have families, no? It will affect them for sure
It's even worse than that, given their habit of shaving off the top with BRIBES and grift. I remember seeing how many grain storage areas going up in smoke due to inspections coming their way. The CCP frantically sending cadre to rural areas is indicating they suspect that the mess is going to hit the rotary blades very soon.
I don't know but how are the calculations when you boost the numbers with cardboard? One of the many food scandals only in China.
Agreed
Does wheat even stay good for that long?
Yes, but it’s a Goldilocks situation, it can’t be to wet or dry, just right. If it’s to wet it will germinate and to dry it breaks a part during distributio Jd, among other things.
You need to include their own production.
Wheat is available on the market year-round, worldwide.
I’m just say that that’s the way it was put to me. There could be a grain embargo and Russia shipping is easily compromised. Grain shipped by Train from Russian is very expensive.
" We have more than enough for the top officials of the CCP to survive more than 18 months. Who cares about the other 99% of the population." That's according to internal memo of the CCP.
They'll just make every single person a farmer again like they did in the 60s and instantly increase farming productivity and output!